Unrest in Iran

[Gilrandir]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nted-says-iran

A new revolution is brewing?

[rory_20_uk]

Often the advantage when we end sanctions - things improve for the locals and blaming everything on outside problems doesn't work.

The Guard and Army are more than capable of imposing their will if they want - they've been training in Syria and Iraq for extended periods of time. Hopefully things will return to how they were in the 1960's.

[Fragony]

My sig I didn't know I still had is relevant again, go team Persia I hope it works this time and I hope socalled quality-media covers it this time for the bedtimestorykids that watch/read them

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I had heard one of the usual government pronouncements that police violence in Iran was the result of some kind of outside agitators stirring things up.

I rolled my eyes, as I usually do at such things.

However, I got to thinking....

We have Saudi proxies (at least by some definitions) clashing with Iranian regulars in Syria and Saudi regulars clashing with Iranian proxies in Yemen. We know from previous episodes over that last three years that not all in Iran are content.

Might it ACTUALLY be outside agitators for once? Trying the RomeTW 'send 4 spies to force the town to rebel' ploy? I am not sure.

[Crandar]

Of course there are foreign agitators, but that doesn't mean that the uprising was a black op. Foreign involvement in such cases is limited to adding fuel to the flames.
https://twitter.com/Zolfegar12/statu...36369990070278

The democratically elected government and its foreign policy enjoys approval by the majority, while the protests are mostly civil in nature.
http://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/f...L%20-%20sm.pdf
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b06d1621b9a019

Iran is divided, but if the American war hawks hope for a pro-American revolution, then they are going to be disappointed.
http://www.dw.com/en/iran-protests-r...rce/a-41974090

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Has their ever been a pro-American revolution that we did not sponsor/enact for ourselves? I cannot recall one.

[rory_20_uk]

Unless the USA has massively upped its game the odds of them having a decent number of people that could infiltrate Iran is close to nil. Imagining that Saudi Arabia has such people - such as some of the 2% of Arabs in Iran - is much easier to believe. And they must be itching to bring the hurt home whilst Yemen is ongoing.

[Fragony]

Of course there are foreign agitators, but that doesn't mean that the uprising was a black op. Foreign involvement in such cases is limited to adding fuel to the flames.
https://twitter.com/Zolfegar12/statu...36369990070278

The democratically elected government and its foreign policy enjoys approval by the majority, while the protests are mostly civil in nature.
http://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/f...L%20-%20sm.pdf
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b06d1621b9a019

Iran is divided, but if the American war hawks hope for a pro-American revolution, then they are going to be disappointed.
http://www.dw.com/en/iran-protests-r...rce/a-41974090

I am not a hawk and not American, but if something is going to change it will be in Iran and nowhere else. Iranians are different from other people in the middle-east they are much more free-thinking. Maybe I am overly optimistic and I am most certainly biased but still, go team Persia salafist those mullahs, hard deep and unsafe

[Crandar]

I know you mean well, but calling Iran as Persia is a bit insulting towards Iranians. By the way, the name changed by the Pahlavis not the revolutionaries.

Anyway, as the research proves, the foreign policy and the government enjoy immense popularity. Iranians may be relatively progressive, but keep in mind that their regime is also progressive and liberal for the region's standards.

[rory_20_uk]

Given Iran is the major power of 30% of Muslims they are surely our natural ally (not having to deal with the entire Middle East would definitely be better of course). The USA needs to get over that it utterly botched its relationship with propping up the Shah and frankly engage as suits its own interests.

Even for Israel, Iran is a smaller threat than everyone else that surrounds them; blustery rhetoric aside, Saudi Arabia has exported a lot more extremist religion than Iran has and apparently we are bestest mates. Hezbollah in Jordan / Syria is definitely supported by Iran but what with the whole embargoes for a few decades they take allies where they can.

[Fragony]

I know it's insulting and I don't care, but thanks for understanding that I don't mean any harm. Maybe it's a bit too close to me I don't know, at least I know that am biased that's something. But I really think that Iranians can be our best friends there, they are no clueless goatherders or Bedouin who lost their camel and don't know where it is and somehow wash up here

[Crandar]

Given Iran is the major power of 30% of Muslims they are surely our natural ally (not having to deal with the entire Middle East would definitely be better of course). The USA needs to get over that it utterly botched its relationship with propping up the Shah and frankly engage as suits its own interests.

Even for Israel, Iran is a smaller threat than everyone else that surrounds them; blustery rhetoric aside, Saudi Arabia has exported a lot more extremist religion than Iran has and apparently we are bestest mates. Hezbollah in Jordan / Syria is definitely supported by Iran but what with the whole embargoes for a few decades they take allies where they can.

I think you meant to say Lebanon, not Jordan. The interests of Iran and the US are contradictory and they cannot be conciliated.
The discord stems from the nationalisation of Western companies which exploited the human and natural resources of Iran without paying almost anything and also concerns the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Iran and her allies are definitely the biggest threats Israel faces, a fact that explains why Israel has gladly supported terrorists, including al-Qaeda to undermine Iran.
The only neighboring governments with hostile relations with Israel are Syria and perhaps Lebanon, both of which are extremely weak compared to Israel or even Iran.

I know it's insulting and I don't care, but thanks for understanding that I don't mean any harm. Maybe it's a bit too close to me I don't know, at least I know that am biased that's something. But I really think that Iranians can be our best friends there, they are no clueless goatherders or Bedouin who lost their camel and don't know where it is and somehow wash up here

They are already our friends. Disagreement with the current aggressive policy and bitterness over the past misdeeds of western governments doesn't mean they dislike Westerners, like you only dislike the government and not them.

Iran is not solely responsible for the hostile diplomatic relations and, given the immense support the Shah and Saddam received from the west, I would argue that Iran isn't even the primary responsible.

[Montmorency]

they are no clueless goatherders or Bedouin who lost their camel and don't know where it is and somehow wash up here

Can you explain this?

[rory_20_uk]

I think you meant to say Lebanon, not Jordan. The interests of Iran and the US are contradictory and they cannot be conciliated.
The discord stems from the nationalisation of Western companies which exploited the human and natural resources of Iran without paying almost anything and also concerns the geopolitics of the Middle East.

Sorry - Lebanon, not Jordan.

The first boils down to money and often can therefore be sorted out with money. We have no current innate hostility - as long as we leave each other alone then that's fine and if we can trade that will enable us to spend money on our long term enemies. We managed to reconcile with China after a shared history of humiliation and a side order of slaughter. They don't like us but tolerate us - especially if we don't interfere.

The latter is definitely a large issue. But again, geopolitics - especially in the Middle East - is fluid, much more so than North Korea for example and we continue to hope that this will sort itself out. Whether they'd believe that all of a sudden we've stopped trying to throttle their economy and it is not a prelude to invasion. But since they are viewed as Infidels by Sunnis (as mostly are we).

So the rhetoric on both sides is contradictory - rather like the UK and the USSR. But the two joined as allies after a far longer period of conflict as it suited both parties.

[Fragony]

Can you explain this?

What you already know about me, why explain. You know I have zero respect for the islamic world so why ask. Any humanist should but they are too busy with gender-types and that sort of things.

[Agent Miles]

http://www.aeinstein.org/wp-content/...13/09/FDTD.pdf
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12522848

Gene Sharp is the American dictators fear more than any CIA operative or member of SEAL Team 6. In the 21st century, all the dark alleys where revolutionaries meet are on the internet. Rebels don't need a harbor full of British tea or a catch phrase like "Land and Freedom" any more. Sharp's book is the one-stop-shop to kick start the party. Free speech is the thorn in every autocrat's side, even the liberal, progressive ones. The first Green revolution in Iran followed over 100 of the lessons from the book. Cell phones and social media aren't just for organizing mob dances. When mass demonstrations happen all over a country, you can bet somebody bookmarked a page in "From Dictatorship to Democracy". Shut down the dictatorship machinery for a few days and then we'll see how popular the regime really is.

[Fragony]

Much simpler I think, loose the midd,e-class and it's seeeeya

I wish Dariush was here he's from Iran, I could be totally wrong about everything and can't know what I say is true

[Gilrandir]

Anyway, as the research proves, the foreign policy and the government enjoy immense popularity.

You mean this research?
http://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/f...L%20-%20sm.pdf

It was published in January 2016, so it was conducted as late as December 2015 and perhaps earlier. During the two years that have elapsed since then the attitudes might have changed.

[Agent Miles]

Here's what Freedom House has on Iran:

https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2017/iran

I suppose a regime only needs a score of 17 to be liberal, progressive and popular.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Unless the USA has massively upped its game the odds of them having a decent number of people that could infiltrate Iran is close to nil. Imagining that Saudi Arabia has such people - such as some of the 2% of Arabs in Iran - is much easier to believe. And they must be itching to bring the hurt home whilst Yemen is ongoing.

There are more than 150k Persian/Farsi speaking households in the USA by our latest census. Some families emigrated during friendlier relations in the 60s and 70s. Some are Baha'i which has not always had smooth times in Iran. Others have emigrated since.

The USA, by all printed accounts, spends far more of its effort on electronic and space-based espionage rather than human intelligence. But the raw resources are there if we so chose.

[rory_20_uk]

There are more than 150k Persian/Farsi speaking households in the USA by our latest census. Some families emigrated during friendlier relations in the 60s and 70s. Some are Baha'i which has not always had smooth times in Iran. Others have emigrated since.

The USA, by all printed accounts, spends far more of its effort on electronic and space-based espionage rather than human intelligence. But the raw resources are there if we so chose.

It is theoretically possible... but it is something the CIA has a history of failing on over a course of 50+ years. Always money and SIGINT over HUMINT since it is shiny and is less likely to have a downside such as assets being captured. So Congress will write large cheques for the next shiny satellite to ensure there are no terrorists on the roof of houses overseas.

[Agent Miles]

The USA isn't going to train Iranian immigrants to form a counter-revolution. That's the classic "us vs. them" lies that the regime in Iran uses to justify its existence. "You must support the efforts of the government to resist the Americans and their proxy Israel or they will destroy us." Iranians live under a total autocracy. The political resistance movement that began in 2009 doesn't need our support and most certainly doesn't want it. Freedom isn't about agreeing with the USA or adopting our culture. A free, democratic Iran may never be America's friend and that is fine with me.

[Husar]

The USA needs to get over that it utterly botched its relationship with propping up the Shah and frankly engage as suits its own interests.

Didn't they install the Shah to protect British financial interests in the first place?

[rory_20_uk]

Didn't they install the Shah to protect British financial interests in the first place?

Along with other Oil companies. All who lost their assets. And I imagine the USA was looking forward to their own interests as the British Empire crumbled and they'd rather the USSR didn't stroll in.

But this is some time in the past and many other intractable foes have come to peace - France and Germany for one simple example. We don't keep hearing about Verdun where more lives and money was blown to pieces.

[Agent Miles]

Actually, the USA was founded by Masons who are nothing more than an evil tool of the Illuminati and that's why we control the world. ;)

Meanwhile, a failed script for the X Files isn't going to win brownie points for a dictatorship in decline. A sob story of how this despotic regime is just a product of western meddling isn't going to keep them on life support. The "unrest" is actual, political resistance. The chains are breaking.

[Fragony]

That would be cool because it would mean that the Dutch control everything. But we don't

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It is theoretically possible... but it is something the CIA has a history of failing on over a course of 50+ years. Always money and SIGINT over HUMINT since it is shiny and is less likely to have a downside such as assets being captured. So Congress will write large cheques for the next shiny satellite to ensure there are no terrorists on the roof of houses overseas.

That has been the rap against CIA and 'No Such' for some time. It certainly has a good measure of truth behind it, as our brilliant HUMINT work prior to the invasion of Iraq under Bush43 suggests.

I would caution everyone, however, that groups like the CIA seldom publish their successes [wholly understandably I believe you will all agree], only their failures are noted.

Actually, the USA was founded by Masons who are nothing more than an evil tool of the Illuminati and that's why we control the world. ;)

Meanwhile, a failed script for the X Files isn't going to win brownie points for a dictatorship in decline. A sob story of how this despotic regime is just a product of western meddling isn't going to keep them on life support. The "unrest" is actual, political resistance. The chains are breaking.

Fine by me. I like my theocracies to be measured in hectares and their militaries wielding pikes.

Along with other Oil companies. All who lost their assets. And I imagine the USA was looking forward to their own interests as the British Empire crumbled and they'd rather the USSR didn't stroll in.

But this is some time in the past and many other intractable foes have come to peace - France and Germany for one simple example. We don't keep hearing about Verdun where more lives and money was blown to pieces.

Oh yeah. Putting the kybosh on their elected leader and setting up the Shah was VERY much about dominoes and stopping the godless commies (not that the USA was ever shy about working out a business deal pretty much anywhere). We tolerated some pretty slimy 'allies' merely because they were rabid anti-communard kleptocratic murdering dictators rather than Stalin-aping murdering dictators.

[Fragony]

May cynism serve you well, you are going to need it

[Crandar]

Here's what Freedom House has on Iran:

Freedom House is a joke paid by the U.S. government to paint a black image of any regime that said government dislikes. We are talking about some "experts" that they consider Russia as democratic as a confederation of tribal monarchies.

It has a particularly bad record in Iran, blamed by genuinely humanitarian organisations for actually undermining the issue of civic liberties inside the country.

The good thing is that Freedom House is as subtle as a Khmer Rouge poster. Their linked article about Iran prompted me to spam a bunch of butthurt pro-Shah emigré slogans in tweeter. That's partisanship, not professionalism.

[Agent Miles]

Yes, the West should only do business with the nice people in the world. (sigh)

The despicables the USA "tolerated" had a shelf life that we recognized, having been revolutionaries ourselves, once. Taiwan, South Korea, Panama etc. may not have democracy because we are the puppet-masters, but they also didn't have some kind of Pol Pot butcher a third of their citizens. Some choices didn't have Utopia on the list.

Crandar, Freedom House gave the US an 89, 10 points less than Canada. My government better not have paid for that. It listed the Russian Collusion crap as a reason.

If everything is rosy in Iran, then let's see what happens when the Revolutionary Guard back down.