Has anyone read "The Dictators' Handbook?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

And that problem is as old as international aid projects.
How much actually gets to the people as opposed to being funneled to black market profiteers, or simply consumed by the leadership.
It is an economy unto itself in some ways.

Indeed.

[Montmorency]

Indeed.

I have little experience with this subject, but I wonder what analyses have been done to show that changes to the aid regime wouldn't have led to worse outcomes and statuses today.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I have little experience with this subject, but I wonder what analyses have been done to show that changes to the aid regime wouldn't have led to worse outcomes and statuses today.

That would be proving a negative, which doesn't work well with the scientific method.

Still, an argument could be made that it would be worse still if things had been done differently or no aid provided.

[Montmorency]

That would be proving a negative, which doesn't work well with the scientific method.

Still, an argument could be made that it would be worse still if things had been done differently or no aid provided.

Well, in social science research I've seen 'reverse projections' modeled, projections within some past time frame under the relevant parameters. I'm sure there any any number of causal limitations this kind of analysis, but it exists.

Separate from the question of what aid should look like from now on, is the question of whether the existence of the aid overall was better than not rendering any aid, or which types of aid and in which regions/countries. Maybe there were higher returns to aid in the first generation, for instance.

[Fragony]

Just give aid, food and medicine, don't try any social enginering. It's not only patronising but also destructive. We should help where it's needed, nobody sane would not help people who are in need, but short-term, no planning ahead it aren't our pets. Help out, but don't disrupt.

[HopAlongBunny]

Still haven't finished it, good read indeed
I was a little concerned when it got onto "democracy and war"; they added a little nuance that such arguments paper over.
If the democratic smaller country is fulfilling the policy objectives of the larger democratic country, all well and good; should the smaller country undertake policies that don't line up with the desires of the larger => war. It nicely describes US policy in Latin America.
"Promoting democracy" is all well and good, unless they desire something we don't like.

[Montmorency]

Still haven't finished it, good read indeed
I was a little concerned when it got onto "democracy and war"; they added a little nuance that such arguments paper over.
If the democratic smaller country is fulfilling the policy objectives of the larger democratic country, all well and good; should the smaller country undertake policies that don't line up with the desires of the larger => war. It nicely describes US policy in Latin America.
"Promoting democracy" is all well and good, unless they desire something we don't like.

The US has higher competency spreading democracy from the barrel of a GI's gun. Maybe it works better domestically than abroad, or maybe it's context-specific.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Athens_(1946)

[rory_20_uk]

I have little experience with this subject, but I wonder what analyses have been done to show that changes to the aid regime wouldn't have led to worse outcomes and statuses today.

It seems things will improve if you have replacement of the structure, rather than providing money to it. So, giving the current crop amnesty to spend their stolen money in peace (otherwise why on earth would they ever leave? Surely better to live in relative safety with $1 billion than continue accruing money and be scared each night might be your last) and then frankly either having territory annexed by nearby states that are better functioning or an outside agency who in essence rebuilds the state.

Or just pretend to help by paying for the right to come in, paying for the hotels, giving the aid to the regime and then seeing a few terrified, smiling locals and thinking it must be better.

[Fragony]

You should read Dead Aid, often dismissed because Moyo works for Goldman Sachs, but that's really all I hear, they never get any further than that.