Hearthstone Mafia [Concluded]

[Dp101]

Clarification to the bolded: I didn't want to sound snarky or condescending, so I added the "hyperbole follows." And as soon as I post it, I think it makes it sound more snarky and condescending. Apologies if that is how you read it. That is not my intent.

Dp, you are skilled, and that post I dislike does not seem like you. That is why I am calling it specifically out.

I didn’t read it as condescending, I just think it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how I view the game and myself.

[GeneralHankerchief]

We need at least one more vote on Csargo for me to be comfortable. There's no mechanic for an immediate "hammer" (phase ending upon majority being reached) so there's still a chance people could move off Csar onto Dp or somebody if we're not careful here.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Does Csargo put his partner Dp this low in the POE?

Eh, maybe. The Dp slot hadn't done anything at that point to justify going any higher than that without questions being raised. You and Logic looked townier, Sooh was revealed to be innocent child, and I'm on the same level with Dp.

In reference to your "only Manasi and Logic pushed Kage" (which I don't feel like quoting at this point but it's directly below the one I just quoted) point, I feel like Csargo did push on him with a decent amount of prompting, and he definitely listed him at the very bottom. Do you think this was a reluctant bus attempt?

[GeneralHankerchief]

I don't have the time to do it before deadline today, but I plan to both reread the game overnight as well as Pizza/Logic on D1 of Chess to see if I can't lock in two clears besides Sooh. I'm dead either way once the next day phase starts, so it won't be an info dump right before deadline or anything.

Please join me/critique me on this, if there's something I miss or overlook or you disagree with my conclusions then we need to hear it. The more discussion the better.

[Zack]

d2 Final Tally

3 Csargo (Dp101, GH, Kage)

1 Dp101 (Logic)

Not Voting: Csargo, Manasi, Sooh

[Zack]

End of Day 2


Csargo was lynched.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Csargo, you are Team 5.

Team 5 (also known as Blizzard Team 5) is the Blizzard Entertainment development team responsible for Hearthstone. Beginning as a "small and nimble" team of 15 members for much of the game's original development, the team has since grown to more than 70 members. Created specifically in order to develop Hearthstone, Team 5 is responsible for all ongoing game design.

You are the Mafia Small Indie Developer.

As a small indie team, you have no abilities.

You win when the mafia reach parity with the town, or this outcome is mechanically unavoidable.

Good luck, have fun, read the rules, PM me with any questions.

Living Players: 6
@Dp101
@GeneralHankerchief
@Kagemusha
@Logic
@Manasi
@Sooh

It is now Night Two.

Voting ends in:

You can post now.

[Sooh]

I blame Zelda.

Sorry for not voting guys.

[Dp101]

I blame Zelda.

Sorry for not voting guys.

Doesn’t matter, we got it right anyway! Thx Gh

[Sooh]

9 player game, probably 2 scums (unless the OP actually specifies). I assume GH is going to die tonight, given his stellar peek. Plenty of people who thought Csargo was towny though, but it would be worth looking into.

[GeneralHankerchief]

So I went into Chess and looked for Pizza's take on Logic. If you don't remember why I'm looking at Chess specifically, it's because Pizza had the guy dead to rights as mafia pretty much right out of the gate. This is quite possibly one of the most painful dives I've ever done. That game was something else. Anyway, cutting through the tremendous amounts of chaff, here's Pizza's takes on Logic's gameplay:

(I won't be putting these in a spoiler because I want everyone to see them as Logic's baseline so they can compare)

Intent is all wrong, and his aggression is all of the passive kind. He's also avoiding when he would normally confront or address.

Very big blunder in his opening. Not a mislynch at all.

Solving and pointed. I think Logic is in an uncomfortable position and can't really justify his Slaan read. So he made an oops here and Kage is all over it.

This is part of a larger post and I cropped out the irrelevant parts. A big part of the read is that Logic isn't really able to justify his reads on people. Don't think that applies here, but I want to go back over Logic's posts in this game to check myself on that (maybe somebody else could do that?).

By contrast, this is Logic barely clearing a hurdle Kage put in his path.

That lack of depth and generic thought is too thin for him, it doesn't match the earlier comment. "I don't see Slaan as a wolf" is too definitive in my opinion to be paired with the question of why answered by "He looks like a townie in a new group of people".

That's paper thin. As is his entire facade. Lynch Logic today always.

Click through to the post if you want to see the quoted context. We're looking for depth and stuff that's more than just generic thought from Logic in this game.

He's not a huge talker, but he has actual thoughts he can defend with reasoning, offered freely and specifically, when he's town.

It looks similar but it's the difference between Logic and a cardboard cutout of Logic. Take your picture with him, you won't see him again after today.

Logic is straightforward. He can't hide in plain sight when he's a town power role, he just kind of vanishes. He has real thoughts as town that people sometimes dismiss for being too A ---> B, and as scum he's just kinda... like this. Not confident enough to battle, more liable to undercut or smudge, passive aggressive stuff. No depth, generic posts, catchable under pressure.

I don't think he can break out of this pattern since he's been at this for years. Logic is who he is. He needs someone who knows how to read him when he's town otherwise he's mislynch bait. He can hide under the radar if you don't push him as scum. He tenses up when he's got a town pr or scum role.

I don't think I'd define his play here as "tensing up"? The isos could be a smokescreen but eh. Not likely?

Passive aggressive. If he were hiding, he wouldn't be undercutting or even solving.

His intent is malevolent here, not hiding.

He would find someone who won't push back and vote them, and then not post.

This is in response to Dp asking Pizza why Logic is just mafia and not a town power role. Very relevant, I think this might cut to the heart of the matter.

This post is why Logic is never a town pr here.

This route of smearing Winston is not Logic's usual town fare, and it's not straightforward.

Logic is very straightforward.

This is Logic implying Winston is scum in a roundabout way, hands off. That's not his MO as town, and definitely not as a town power role.

Thanks for looking at Logic, but I think you missed one of my biggest points and didn't look for it.

You saw his posts in another game as town, when he accused people, does he not consistently just say this post is scummy this person is a wolf I think this makes you more townie, his questions if any are more direct and mean what they appear to mean on the surface?

That's a highly highly consistent quality of his town game. He doesn't ask rhetorical questions or questions that undermine people in that manner, he doesn't do passive aggression. He's not highly aggressive but when he does it, it's pointed, and in fact, he does far more aggression (despite how mild it feels) in games than defending himself or anyone else.

And all of that solving is pointed and direct, not passive aggression.

I get how you're arriving at the conclusion that I'm just tunneling because I am, but if I'm tunneling on the right person and you're missing the biggest reason why it's right, I feel like we missed the chance for our minds to arrive at the same place.

I won't ask you to look again, but it was a massive part of what I wanted you to look for and I don't think you were looking for it. You found other stuff and I believe you're town, but I still think you missed the damning stark difference.

This is Pizza's response to my defense of (my mafia partner) Logic.

--------------------

I think this is enough of a baseline to go off of. The key points to look for from Logic are:

1) Passive-aggressiveness vs. directness when making cases
2) Depth of posts
3) Tensing up/getting uncomfortable in the thread

I'll check out Logic's posts here later, I have to go do IRL stuff for a while.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Here are all of Logic's posts in Chess (minus some fluff at the start and an edit or two), when he was mafia. I'm a bit drunk so I'm not going to provide commentary. Click through for context if you're interested.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

If thats hiw you welcome newcomers, I guess I'm thankful that for my first game here you were unable to vote for me.

I admit, I am bad at chess. Maybe mafia too. Not sure what you see that looks suspicious in the 5 (guessing) posts I've made.

Well, he does have experience in the job.

***Pizza starts scumreading him here***

Option 3 is the least desirable choice.

Not ready to attempt option 2 yet, no reads.

I can live with option 1. I'll just be sad I didn't get to play long.

I don't get it. I've not seen pizza play like this before. I know everything he does has a purpose, but here it feels like he is just playing by the seat if his pants. I'm confused, but I don't know if am am more or less so than Dp.

Why do you keep saying that?

Touché. I see you use my turn of a phrase against me!
EDIT

My wife would very much you not claim me as a suit.

I am off to bed. This start has given me plenty to think on.

I haven't played chess since about the time that avatar was made. So, a decade or so? I've never considered myself very good. I'm capable of beating my parents and


Hmm. Why do you get a feeling that no one else seems to?


Logic's 10-minute take:
DP is town. DP is not teamed with Pizza, or Zack.

Csargo and Pizza are not teamed. One could be a wolf, but I don't think both.

Pizza feels really weird from normal. I can usually understand him a little, but here, he feels like he is playing 9 moves ahead to my 4. Not sure if he's on my team or not. I stand by my "seat of the pants" statement from earlier.

Cuth jumps in with some slight shade at DP. Is he suspicious of DP?

Kage shows up with what looks like a lazy vote on Slaan. Possibly a joke, but I think there's a more than reasonable chance that Kage is mafia.

Reinoe is the current target of DP's ire, and he is voting for me, (full disclosure, that that vote isn't being counted because it isn't bolded)

His vote on me looks like it stems only from Pizza's accusation. Not sure if sheeping, or he has other reasons for voting for me.

[b]Vote: Kagemusha[b/]

One seemingly random vote for something very minuscule, and not related to the game? Yeah, I thought it was a tell. Especially since I don't see Slaan as a wolf.

I read his iso. To me, it looks more like a townie toeing the waters on a new group of people than someone with hidden information.


Winston, this... looks odd. It sounds to me like a willingness to lynch pizza, but an admission that you know he's town.

Please see the above quoted post.


Isolated posts of a single poster.


Well, I think your avatar looks smug.

If Kage has been around that long, how does he not know what ISO is?

@Zack
Unless I missed something, only GH and Winston have given Kage a townread.

They seem to know him, whereas I recognize his name. I'm not putting a ton of stock into other's town reads just yet, but this gulf between myself and those 2 tells me either I am way off in my suspicions, or should be looking closer at all 3.

Got busy with RL, and now have almost 1000 posts. Sheesh. If I survive, I should be more productive on the next day phase.

I'm going to park my vote on Choxorn, because it might mean I survive the day. If I don't, then C'est la vie.

If nothing else, I gotta do the most town thing I can, and save someone I know is a townie (me.)

Unvote: Kage

Vote: Choxorn.

The one caveat is that Logic was under heavy pressure for quite a bit of D1 in that game so he might have been thrown off his game. THAT SAID. Without having looked back at Logic's posts in this game I think he's town.

I hope to lock that read in tomorrow and then we only need one more clear to lock the game.

Obviously all input is STRONGLY encouraged.

[Manasi]

Good shit.

Still waiting for GH to do something even close to what he did to read Logic for Kage.

Too many people to lynch with too many question marks.

Dp/Sooh pls do something this is driving me a little insane.

[Manasi]

Like I'm glad he's come around to Logic being town but I think he (GH) is still going to tell y'all to push on me in the coming days which is the objectively incorrect play.

I don't know if Sooh is ever this much of a non-factor, but I wouldn't be surprised?

I am a little bleh about Dp's activity being so low.

The only thing in Kage's favor was the activity and how he was actually like urging me to post even though all of my reads were already ITT?

I don't fucking know town just needs to posttttttt.

[Manasi]

I'll be at home doing date of birth things for the majority of the day tomorrow, but I should be looking through thread during down time.

Should be around.

It'll be fine.

[Kagemusha]

Like I'm glad he's come around to Logic being town but I think he (GH) is still going to tell y'all to push on me in the coming days which is the objectively incorrect play.

I don't know if Sooh is ever this much of a non-factor, but I wouldn't be surprised?

I am a little bleh about Dp's activity being so low.

The only thing in Kage's favor was the activity and how he was actually like urging me to post even though all of my reads were already ITT?

I don't fucking know town just needs to posttttttt.

I'll be at home doing date of birth things for the majority of the day tomorrow, but I should be looking through thread during down time.

Should be around.

It'll be fine.

Im hung over and not feeling too much for posting anything. But i say that both posts above this one of mine are shit posts. You cant discredit me both ways do it or dont. I found Csargo and i found you as well.

[Kagemusha]

Sorry three posts above mine are shit posts and that is what they are.

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Manasi

[Sooh]

Like I'm glad he's come around to Logic being town but I think he (GH) is still going to tell y'all to push on me in the coming days which is the objectively incorrect play.

I don't know if Sooh is ever this much of a non-factor, but I wouldn't be surprised?

I am a little bleh about Dp's activity being so low.

The only thing in Kage's favor was the activity and how he was actually like urging me to post even though all of my reads were already ITT?

I don't fucking know town just needs to posttttttt.

Manasi, I don't know if you read the flip posts at all, but I'm literally mod confirmed IC.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Happy Easter everyone, happy birthday Manasi!

Keeping in mind the above criteria I've set for Logic, here are some of his posts in this game:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Vote: El Barto

First off we have an immediate response to El Barto's coding persona. Nothing beyond it, and then there are a couple of explanations as to his edited post plus a revote etc that I'm not going to post here. In itself I don't necessarily think we can get anything off of this.

Vote: Snerk.
There is no way he should know I'm part Scottish. The lab has yet ti verify Argentinean.

Later on he moves his vote over to Snerk, still without an actual reason. Hm.

I gotta say, I am "thanking" Csargo more than I thought I would have. I'm going to guess it is based upon our having a similar sense of humor.

"Zack used confuse on Logic! It's super effective!"

Wait.... wrong franchise.

Still nothing...

I've always thought it was pronounced the same as "sue," because when I first saw the name, I initially thought it said "soothe."

Getting actually a little worried.

Do you agree with my assessment that we share a similar sense of humor?

I typically don't watch videos at work, so if there was humor content within, I had no idea. I assumed it was just the end cutscene to Ocarina of Time based on the thumbnail.

It's 5 am here, but in case you your questions are not jokes:
I took "ama" to mean "ask me anything."
Not you.
Probably not.
Souls. He controls the black market on this corner of the blog-o-sphere.

Logic where's your direct stuff?

***There's some more conversation with Kage that's not really game-relevant that I don't feel like posting here***

Very vague buckets:

Townish
Logic - Myself, naturally I am going to say I am town.
Manasi - seems townier than usual, and I usually suspect Manasi early and often.
Sooh - Feels natural; I can detect no hidden agenda.

Nullish
Csargo - Right now, I'm wearing blinders on him.
Kagemusha - "Bating" for reaction sounds good, but it's also I might do in a followup game if I were scum.

Scumish
El Barto - Slightly confused by the 848% earlier, but I'm assuming it was a typo not something sinister. His coded flavor-text may be what is pinging my scum-dar, but I can't identify why he feels less than genuine this early.
Monty - Seeing his last game has made me super wary of him, and he is in my "usual suspects" bucket until proven otherwise.
GeneralHankerchief - Too little content to base anything on. But I could see a "chaos³" GH this early.
Snerk/Dp101 - Snerk/Dp101 have given little to go on, but I can't find a real reason to vote elsewhere yet.

FIRST ACTUAL READS. Kind of more than anything we saw in Chess but I still wouldn't exactly call this "good". There's not really any passive aggressiveness to detect here, but not much directness either. Let's see if he hits the other criteria points when following up with this.

***Csargo exchange***

I don't get all the hate for sudoku, it's not that bad.

Monty, Logic, and Dp101 bottom tier for me at this point. Feel like that's where we should be focusing. All have been underwhelming/ooc in my extremely educated extraordinary opinion.

Where did the Sudoku conversation come from?

I thought I was being clever...

I think you have Manasi/Sooh too high tbh.

It was in reference to the Barto votes, should have stated that initially. gg me.

Maybe you were, but it flew right over my head.
(Assuming you were punning a little about "pseudo." If not, then I still don't get it.)

This feels a little too awkward to be partnery, maybe? Like they're tripping over each other a decent amount in this. Also the fact that Logic didn't really respond to the fact that Csargo was suspecting him is... meh. I wish my conclusion was stronger at this point.

***The isos begin***

Typical Manasi. But note her inclination.

Attempt at solving. I like this.

Not sure how to take this. I wanna give this positive points, but I could see this as potentially forced.

Solving, or setting up doubt in GH? I'm presently inclined to believe the former.

This made me laugh. Null.

This is in response to GH removing his vote from El Barto, who is currently voting for Manasi.
Votes with original inclination. Could be playing "consistent" as scum, or sticking with original read. Overall, I think this paints Manasi as more likely town than scum.

This is Logic taking a look at Manasi's posts. He comes out with a townread on her despite seeing both sides, so overall I think this looks reasonably decent for Logic in terms of evaluating it off the criteria Pizza laid out in Chess.

Please see post #102, which clarifies my manasi opinion, and my post prior to this one, which is Manasi's ISO.

This is in response to my question about his earlier placement of Manasi.

SNERK/DP ISO COMING:

I agree with this here. :'(

Joke for a null.

Joke for a null.

Replying to a vote from Sooh with a vote for monty.

Joke for null

Null

Strongly agrees with Manasi's "Kage's wall-o-text random"

Agrees with GH concerning Csargo and Sooh's towniness, & Kage's mafia-ness. GH also slightly puts Manasi in the town camp. Not sure what parts DP agrees with or not.

Now, the first thing I'll say is that Logic never made these posts in Chess - however, Chess was also a much, much higher volume than this game, so I'm not sure how much this applies. What I will say is that none of this is forced. He's not trying to shade Dp here, just pointing out all of the posts and saying how it's pretty much null on all of them. I'd expect mafia!Logic to try to force something here, probably in an indirect way.

There's a short exchange with me, asking for clarification on one of the points I made, that I'm not going to put here.

Presently, Barto is voting Manasi, and appears to be offline. The latter explains his lack of self-defense.

This is in response to Kage questioning why Barto isn't defending himself. Again, nothing really passive-aggressive.

*****DAY ONE ENDS*****

Prior to this post of mine now, the posts counts are as follows:
Logic - 23
Csargo - 22
GH - 16
Narrator - 14
Kage -12
El Barto -12
Sooh - 11
Manasi - 8
Montmorency - 6
Snerk/DP combined - 5/3, 8 combined.

Judging off of this alone, I am running on the theory that there is one mafia above El Barto, and one below.

This is the first post in the night phase and I think it looks ~okay for Logic. It doesn't mean much but again, he's just putting it out there without reservation, really. It's more of the intent behind the post than the actual content for me right now.

I'd say its better than 50/50 that one scum is fairly active, and another is cruising under the radar. It's exactly what I'd be advocating for right now if I were scum.

GH also doubled his posts between my two mentions. Look at his first 8 posts. 1 or 2 have some reasonable content, the rest are nothing of real note.

First line: A response to Kage asking him about his postcount theory. Second line: responding to Monty about GH's "having too little content to judge". Hmph. I kind of wish Logic had named names here in terms of suspects. At least he's sticking with the theory though, think that's good for him.

Sorry about that. I can't speak for anyone else, but I am unusually busy at work today. I'll have some content before EON.

Responding to Manasi about the low level of content in the game.

LOGIC WALL TIME BELOW:

Apologies in advance. This will be a wall.


This is the second time I've quoted this post, but something reads off. Here are some more perceptions of it.

If Monty is scum:
1.) I highly doubt GH is as well.
2.) Pocketing Manasi looks likely

Curious about Kage, Sooh, and DP reads. Not just because they are different from mine (read more below on Sooh) but also because there doesn't seem to be much content to it.



With no other context, I would be reading this as (scum)Manasi is pocketing me or the (town)Manasi feels like she is being pocketed by yours truly. Her follow-ups look different from the Manasi I am used to seeing; this is more effort from her than I recall ever before. WIM, methinks?


If Manasi doesn't suspect Kage, color me surprised. I certainly do. However, rhetorical questions are the best kinds of questions. Just like being technically correct is the best kind of correct.

New Postcount update

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

^1 Csargo - 40 (+18)
^6 Manasi - 30 (+22)
v2 Logic - 26 (+3)
-- GH - 26 (+10)
^1 Kagemusha - 20 (+7)
v1 Zack - 14 (0)
v2 El Barto - 12 (0)
v1 Sooh - 12 (+1)
^1 Snerk/DP - 16* (+8)
v1 Montmorency - 11 (+5)

Previous count, for reference

If I am the nightkill, I suspect Csargo or Monty, for comments made in past games that I cannot seem to find at the moment. It depends on how long their memory is for random things I've said. But, I ONLY suspect Csargo if I am the nightkill. He's yet given me pause otherwise.
If I survive the night I will do more ISOs starting with the lowest posters I have yet to tackle, with an update on those I have gotten to if possible.
For now, settle for Sooh's ISO:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Note this post for later in this ISO. Votes Snerk. Snerk's response is to vote Monty while quoting Sooh, and this poduces the following from Sooh:

NAI


Responding to Barto's "coding" posting style. NAI.

NAI, but keep note of this for also later in the ISO.


Respoding to Kage's vote summary in post #34. Kage 'thanks' the post.

With about 6 hours to go, Sooh quotes the countdown timer.


NAI


NAI


NAI

Responding to my joke. At least someone got it.




The longest post by Sooh yet. She's responding to Manasi, who asked her a direct question about what she was thinking.

I don't know Kage well enough to know if "that wall" is weird for anyone but him. It looks kinda like some of the stuff I do. But drawing attention to it again after the fact does seem odd, and out of place to me.



This is the second time Sooh has claimed to be distracted by real life. (Zelda, and now Shetland) This could be a real legitimate answer, as we haven't had an Org Mafia game in months. But for now, this strikes me as a tad suspicious. I see I had rated Sooh too townie initially. Without doing Kage's ISO, I could see a Sooh/Kage team pretty easily.

My suspects right now are Sooh -> Kage -> Monty

I would click this one through for context, there's a decent amount to digest here.

So obviously the effort is leaps and bounds ahead of anything Logic did in Chess, even factoring in the volume/fact that he was under immense pressure right out of the gate. In terms of the content, it's decent. I can't do any better than "decent" unfortunately. I do think there is directness with his accusations present, but not as much as I'd like. Read for it yourself and decide.

*****DAY TWO START*****

Well, that was not expected. Two of my top 3 suspects are mechanically cleared in one update. Completely back to the drawing board.

(Monty and Sooh). Kind of like this.

Wait; Innocent Child? That doesn't seem to fit with the Hearthstone theme at all. I'm not mechanically clearing Sooh just yet.

I REALLY like this post. It's a bit of a derpclear but I'll allow it. Feel like mafia's more likely reaction is to ask about it in scumchat or something. Or just take it on faith since it's the host reaffirming what the mafioso already knows: Sooh is clear.

Clarification: I meant I wasn't changing my opinion on Csargo if I was not the nightkill. The nightkill being me would have led me to believe that Csargo was scum, due to my statement in an earlier game that "I consider it a personal win to be the nightkill D1" or something similar. Csargo at the time said something to the effect of "I hope to let you win when I am scum."

Yeah: He's still null, so I still don't suspect him, but I'm not taking my eyes off either. He's yet given me pause, but I haven't seen something oozing towniness. I am positive I did not say "he's fine."
My gaze was going to be focused on Monty/Sooh/Kage, as they were my top suspects, but it looks like I have one worth looking at.

Above two posts were an exchange with me asking him about Csargo.

KAGE ISO BELOW:

First post: not super content driven. Could be an analysis, could be a smokescreen. Sooh called this weird for anyone but Kage earlier, so this may be worth investigating further. Vote for GH tells little at this point.

Replying to GH about his feelings upon getting a role. Talks about being sentimental. If I knew more about Kage, this might be a better datapoint. As it stands, this reads like it could be partners speaking.

Replyng to two of GH's posts. (GH compliments Kage's mafia skills, comments on being sentimental, and comments on Csargo and Sooh being likely town, Manasi just shy of that level) Removes vote from GH calling him likely town because he liked his reaction. Reads Manasi as "possibly confused scum, but town for now", and gives reads on Csargo and Logic (myself,) hinting he thinks we are possible scum partners or otherwise linked. I find the latter to be mechanically impossible with this few number of players. I'm casting significant suspicion on Kage for this. It also leads my to think that GH is Kage's most likely partner, for now. Pending GH's ISO, we'll see, but so far I'm 1 for 3, and my 1 correct wasn't solid.

Explains his intent. +town points, but possible ruse as scum to repeat

Responding to Csargo, who is critical of Kage's list. NAI.

Encourages GH to push Barto. (GH agrees.) If these guys are a scum team, this is brazen. Teaming seems less likely now.

Banter with me about my grammar nazi traits.

Asks me a direct question, and I post my "vague buckets" response.

Near EOD post about Barto.

He answers his own question moments after I answer it for him.


More banter with GH. I repeat myself, these two feel teamed, but I know for a fact that GH is smarter than this, and I suspect Kage is as well. If teamed, this is super brazen.
EOD

Responding to my postcount analysis. Probing?

DP townreads Csargo and Manasi, the latter everyone seems to have done so, and Kage is asking for reasons. I give Kage town points for this.

Responding to Manasi's query. I'm not convinced that Kage did a whole lot of legwork in the day-phase, but maybe I'm missing the forest for the trees. I saw one attempt to ferret out mafia that didn't work all that well, and Kage agrees that his plan didn't return any positive results.

Responding to Manai's plight about multiquotes. I would normally like this question, and probably pose it myself, but because I am seeing Kage through a mafia-filter, this looks suspect to me.

G**D*** it. This is good, but makes it harder for me to read Kage. This I like. Mafia or Town, I like this sentiment. And It's hard for me to read this as mafia. I'm going to give him a "good sportsman" read here, because this tells me nothing otherwise. There may be info here, but I will not be able to read anything into this beyond "Hey Kage, is a cool dude."

NAI

Responding to GH's question about who he suspects before the kill comes in.
Makes a claim about being consistent. Thats more wolf thinking, in my book, but it could just be how Kage shapes his worldview. After the Barto flip, he is unsure about his previous reads.
He mentions me (he likes my ISOs, is convinced if I am Mafia I am playing well) and Csargo he says he can never read properly, so apply direct pressure. He admits to omitting Sooh, and says she may be slipping under the radar. If wolf, this is a setup to deep-threat mislynch, methinks? I'm unsure, but colored glasses have me thinking about it like that. Says Manasi is masking with behavior (I feel this is Manasi's best town game so far, so this gives Kage a mafia point in my ledger.) I agree that DP/Snerk did not give him much to go on. Ends with his assessment of Monty, which also looks like "I can't read him unless_____." Tells GH he will get him, if he is indeed mafia GH can't hide from Kage. Asks for more to work with. Yup, we all need that.

Csargo sarcastically says he deserves more heat because Kage specifically can't read him. Kage suggests I do Csargo's iso soon (maybe later; 30+ posts to quote, compile, and analyze, and I don't have time for that right now.)
[b]EON[b]

Responding to Manasi's laughter. Not sure what to make of this interaction at all. Manasi might be gloating (the first potential mafia-sign I've seen from her) and Kage seems to be keeping his cards close to his chest. Could go either way from this.

Here he shades Manasi for parroting me. The second possible Manasi scum sign, and a second ISO of her may bear fruit. But, Kage isn't making a good case here either: He's inferring something that Manasi does not seem to be saying herself. (she looks to be attempting a vote, but she has only bolded Kage's name, thus not actually voting for him. Not sure if honest mistake due to other-site habits, or something else. Kage picks up on this as well, and calls Manasi scummy directly.

Not yet ready for a vote, but leaning Kage and GH.

I'm running out of steam but this is a much better effort from Logic than the last iso. I think it shows a good amount of depth of thought and he's directly confronting somebody who's already under a good amount of suspicion. His reads haven't had the best accuracy this game, but I do feel like his process is coming from a town perspective.

Just so this doesn't get lost. After reading the ISO, hes been shading Manasi from nearly the beginning, but not voting for her. So I will Vote: Kage now, but I want to make sure you all see that I think he's a pretty swell dude. If I am wrong, Thunderdome me, because clearly I am not helping town.

So, I can't shake help but shake the feeling that GH and Kage are teamed, but here is the biggest evidence AGAINST the theory that I can find:
------------------------------------------------------------
Day One, Final Tally

3 El Barto (Montmorency, Kagemusha, GeneralHankerchief)

2 Montmorency (Dp101/Snerk, Manasi)
2 Dp101 (Logic, Csargo)

1 Manasi (El Barto)

Not Voting: Sooh
------------------------------------------------------------
There is no good reason I can think of for both scum to be on a D1 wagon mislynch and kill the only other person on the same wagon the following night. I'll have to ISO GH next.

And here he walks his own theory back a bit. Good stuff overall.

***After I claim***

Posting from mobile; expect errors.

I don't like this post.
Hyperbole follows: You might be rusty, but you absolutely know what you are doing. You don't get nominated to the mafia championship if you were clueless.



I like this post, and it somewhat mitigates my comments on the previous post I quoted, but this could be SO trying to pocket what looks like a pretty clear townie.
There are enough people voting for csargo that I don't beleive I need to do so as well. But I am willing to go on the record and Vote: Dp101.

Clarification to the bolded: I didn't want to sound snarky or condescending, so I added the "hyperbole follows." And as soon as I post it, I think it makes it sound more snarky and condescending. Apologies if that is how you read it. That is not my intent.

Dp, you are skilled, and that post I dislike does not seem like you. That is why I am calling it specifically out.

CONCLUSION:

The iso could have been better, but going off Pizza's criteria I think Logic is pretty solidly within the town camp here.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I need to go do Easter stuff now, I hope to be in the thread for a while before I die and give thoughts on Kage/Manasi/Dp.

Here's what I don't want to happen though: Don't take my word for gospel. I'm going to die tonight and Sooh is going to die N3. In that time (if we don't get the second mafioso this coming day phase), there needs to be more interaction and threadwork. I will give my thoughts - hopefully - but I do not want that to be the final word on the matter. This game is going to be won or lost on what the living, noncleared players do.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I sort of like this post, a decent amount.

Dp, you might not be able to answer until after daystart, but what about this post did you like?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Good post and good reaction. You seem townish. A Mafia GH would likely not have jumped into this very weird post of mine, but avoided it. What else. Monty seems interested.+town. Manasi similarly, but could also be a confused scum player. Town for now. Csargo and Logic, no reaction. Scum? Connection? DP101 also sensing oddity of the post. Seems good. But, El Barto, talking about me, but not to me. Do i sense a suggestion for others pointing at my post, while not committing really. Best vote by far now: Unvote and Vote: El Barto

There was no point in reacting, you've basically condensed down what has happened so far, which is basically nothing, and made it into a list. I don't think there's much to say really.

Ok. Thank you for the answer.

I don't think this is particularly partner-y from Csargo and Kage, it seems like Kage is doing his own thing, Csargo sort of shades it, and Kage goes "ok thanks for noticing but I'm not done yet, thanks for the extra data point in the meantime." I feel like, were Kage and Csargo paired, this conversation either wouldn't have taken place or it would have a greatly altered form.

[Manasi]

Manasi, I don't know if you read the flip posts at all, but I'm literally mod confirmed IC.

Yeah I didn’t know that I posted shade on you I was also quite drunk lmao.

[Manasi]

Think most people would be able to tell I’m incredibly far out of my mafia range right now. It could be as easy as Dp/Csargo or something but if Dp flips town I’m gonna fuckin’ go guns blazing at Kage.

Those posts weren’t shit don’t be mean :(

[GeneralHankerchief]

Manasi, here's what I articulated about Kage in Chess (ignore the fact that I was mafia in that game, it was still a legitimate read):

I'm most confident with my read on Kage, probably due to the whole "we've been playing together for 11 years thing". Kage as scum, while he can certainly get down in the trenches when he needs to, tends to default more to the "consensus builder" type where he skates by, is friendly with everyone, and then cuts your throat at night. Town Kage says what's on his mind and I think there's a marked less concern for his own survival. I actually think he's lynched more as town than as mafia.

[GeneralHankerchief]

There's like. A 25% chance that I switch it up to Dp and make it go 2/2/2.

Maybe.

Vote:Dp101

Official Tally as of #125

3 El Barto (Montmorency, Kagemusha, GeneralHankerchief)

2 Montmorency (Dp101/Snerk, Manasi)
2 Dp101 (Logic, Csargo)

1 Manasi (El Barto)

Not Voting: Sooh

So... this is looking pretty good for Dp. I had just articulated the fact that I could move to Dp, I'm very well known for vote shifts around EOD... and Csargo goes after Dp, putting him in danger. This was both my and Csargo's final posts before EOD, so if I had pulled a CHAOS CHAOS CHAOS then Csargo would have lost a buddy.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Why did you think Barto was scum?

I mean there was never any reason to vote Barto imo, I have no idea wth happened here.

feels $ sudo man...

Who do you think looks bad on his wagon then?

All of them. Monty is probably more suspicious to me than GH/Kage, but it's pretty close. Probably should have voted him over Dp101, but mistakes were made.

Here's a Manasi/Csargo exchange from the start of N1. I wouldn't go as far to say it's partnery, but it's definitely not "not partnery".

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unfortunate, and here I thought this was a game of discourse, but apparently it's a game of vague statements that are indecipherable.

This is generally the impression I get from the thread overall btw. Honestly only people I feel confident townreading are Csargo and Manasi.

Hi Dp101! What do you base your confidence about Csargo and Manasi?

Both are obviously engaged with the game and feel like they are genuinely interested in solving the game, rather than just going through the motions.

Csargo/Dp/Kage.

I'm basically not commenting on this stuff at this point, just dumping it for reference.

[GeneralHankerchief]

DP can you do me a favor and read Kage's posts for me and tell me what you think? There isn't really a lot there so it should be easy.

Need more reads itt and less random stuff.

Funny coming from me, isn't it?

I mean I think his posting style is bizarre and I don’t understand it, but that’s been true any time I’ve played with him, so not really sure if I know how to read him.

I did some legwork during last day phase. It just did not bear fruit at least yet. Did you not understand what i tried to achieve, which i explained to GH already. As you suggest that there is lot of beef to work with. I am all ears. (Btw i hate posting with cell as im couple hundred km from home.)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Is this the legwork you were referring to?

When I look at this it just comes across as summary and rhetorical questions that nobody ever answered. How is that actual work? Especially if you haven't yielded anything from it?

Is the only reason you voted on Barto because he didn't directly address you? That's what it's seeming.

You and GH both decided your lynch based on a POE.

You had the following:

Town: Manasi, Monty, GH

Mafia: Csargo, Logic

Which left a POE of Barto and Sooh (who has addressed you // you have made no effort to respond to)

Although she has a town read on you for "being intense" or whatever, that in no case would have much of a tell on her own alignment.

I just don't understand why you made the decision that you did when it seemed like Barto was at least interacting well with other people and someone like Sooh fluffed and posted ever so sporadically (no offense Sooh, think you're > rand town but I would have voted you over Barto if given the choice).

Manasi's looked good in this game re: tone and pushes and whatnot, but she probably has the worst associatives.

[GeneralHankerchief]

So let's summarize the above.

---------

My track bought us one phase of time. We have six living players, five once I'm killed, one of whom is mafia. We have two chances to get this right. Assuming I'm dead, we'll have Sooh, Logic, Kage, Manasi, and Dp alive. In a perfect world, we can clear three of these people and the game will be locked.

Sooh is mechanically clear. That's one.

Logic, I think, is clear. I think he's out of his scum range, though I would like to see him continue posting and not just coast off this. There's a possibility he may have been able to change his meta between Chess and now, but everything in that Pizza iso says that's just not who Logic is as a person, so I think it's more likely we're just seeing town!Logic here. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but he also deserves to win the game if this is the case. So that's two.

The third is harder and I can't do it with confidence, so I leave it to you guys.

---------

Dp101 has been generally unimpressive all game, which I think he'd freely admit to. I just want to see more from him. There are two things in his favor: First, the fact that Csargo voted him late on D1 when I was threatening to also do so, which would have put Dp in the outright lead. Second, this post, which was his initial reaction to seeing my claim. If he's mafia there, the "if you're lying, I'm coming after you tomorrow" is unnecessary and well done - to me it smacks of good townie paranoia. However, the more I think about it, I'm turning around theories in my head of Dp giving Csargo the OK to bus him there on D1 especially if he realizes that he won't be able to contribute much and it would hold up well throughout the game. So as much as I'd like to, I can't clear Dp for Csargo's treatment of him there.

Manasi has had really good tone throughout the game, bringing energy and drive to move the game forward. It's a big mark in her favor for sure. However, as I discussed in an earlier post, she has the worst associatives of the Big Three. Kage and Csargo were mutually scumreading each other to some extent, and Csargo also has that Dp vote near EOD1 that I just talked about. In a game of this size and this activity level, where we're all friends, if you roll mafia with somebody would you try to bus them or would you want to work with them, keep each other alive, and laugh as the town shoots itself in the foot? In addition, I think Manasi's subtly been twisting some of the facts in this game to suit her narrative: for example shading my EOD1 process when I clearly laid it out in a POE here, or saying how Csargo didn't really push on Kage here when literally the post right before that one was her quoting Csargo's reads list where he had Kage at the very bottom.

Kage has probably been the biggest point of contention throughout the entire game. A lot of people have been pushing him for generally strange posting from the very start, which, yeah, that very first summary of his wasn't good, and his process to solve the game hasn't been particularly easy to follow. That said, I think he has pretty good associatives. Both Csargo and a likely partner went after Kage over the course of the game, and - as Kage has been quick to point out - he was really the only one suspicious of Csargo before I came out with my track result. Here is where he first outlined these suspicions. Csargo immediately fired back, but the argument didn't really go anywhere and quickly dissipated. The thing that makes me pause is both that, and the fact that Kage never actually made a case on Csargo, like he did on Manasi. Kage is a very good scum player and thrives in this kind of environment, so I wouldn't put it past him to cast some low-level suspicion on his buddy while still making sure the main focus stayed elsewhere.

--------

So that's where I'm at. This is probably going to be my last post, and it's going to come down to the rest of you guys to get this right. You're going to have to talk it out and interact with each other. All three candidates have pluses and minuses, and hopefully I've done a decent job of laying them out.

It's been fun, all. Happy Easter and good luck.