Hearthstone Mafia [Concluded]

[Logic]

Manasi ISO, part 2

Day 2: Monty killed, Sooh revealed

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Hahahahahahahaha.

Kage

Two of my scum reads flipped town.

Cya.

I scumread Kage before Logic even

ugh

Right after Monty and Sooh's alignments were revealed. I gotta say, this looks more like a towny perspective than a mafia one.

This seems like exactly what you're doing in continuing to wait for Sooh lmao.

Still pressuring Kage. Consistant, at least.

Please go look back at the game where the three of us were scum together and compare.

This is a weird read for you to have, especially paired with coming to the conclusion that we're scum together.

Responding to GH before his claim/reveal.

Yeah give me a second. I've been really busy and tried posting last night on mobile but the site loaded horribly for me so I just went to sleep.

Responding to Kage about being evasive. This looks like another evasive answer to avoid the question for a moment.

I've absolutely been developing my own reads moreso than most people in the thread at this point, and if that's something you can't see then I'm not sure what to tell you. I haven't evaded anything besides the questions in posts I literally haven't read yet lmao

Not wrong about reads.

So I'm put in this shitty spot where both myself and my town read are being pushed by the supposed tracker. If Csargo is scum, fine, that's fair. I didn't super lock clear him anyway. Reading both of our posts and concluding that we are potentially partners, though, is laughable. GH should know better than it. Again, it's fine since we're killing him today but I need you all to re-evaluate on me tomorrow.

Csargo's posting yesterday and last night would have been good enough to warrant a clear read from a lot of people tbh. Wifom alert, but I'm pretty sure if my scum partner gave me a reason to lock them away as town in my reads I would grab it and run.


Rest coming.

I also don't think a low impact IC dies over a tracker that could get another wolf.

Just my 0.02 at a post that stuck out strangely.

So then by the start of Day 3, both Csargo and GH will be dead and we can actually evaluate the game without him spewing that Kage's town and I'm mafia.

Good stuff.




Re: Dp, I could easily be getting bamboozled. I still think he's townier than Kage whose only real stance has been [probably] attempting to pocket GH. If GH even tried to verbalize why he thought Kage was town besides "Oh I just feel it really hard," I'd be a lot more inclined to listen or try to understand. From my perspective, though, I'm getting really pretty exclusively by two guys who are just back and forth town reading each other and could definitely be mafia together (barring the claim which is probably self resolving).

Tinfoil is partners bussing through claim but I think if they just continued on they'd have won just as easily.

Scratch that tinfoil.

Everything is fine.

Logic is spewed town by every side of this game.

Nobody's wanted to push there.

/shrug

Logic, I'm willing to entertain the notion that Kage could be mafia, but not the one that I'm his partner for obvious reasons. Could you present a feasible alternative?

Csargo, you're given a gun with one shot. Who do you kill?

Kage I think at this point.

My PoE is something like this atm:

Csargo
Sooh
Logic
Manasi
Dp101/GH
Kage

Does Csargo put his partner Dp this low in the POE?

Noted for future reference.

Not everyone has pushed on Kage fwiw.

Csargo didn't really actually push at all. It's just been myself and Logic.

Half the game.

Math checks out.

Perhaps I'm being unually thick, but I don't know what "half the game" Manasi is referencing here. Half the players? Half play time? Care to clarift, @Manasi?

Double-Sooh posts, for reference:

Personally I feel like this Manasi is miles away from scum-Manasi in that previous game.

Csargo, what do you think?

Csargo "thanks" the latter post, which I first thought was something, but this was after his outing by GH. So looking for partner associations there is null or wifom at best, and aggravating for those solving at worst.

EOD 2: Csargo lynched with GH, Kage, and DP on wagon.
Manasi attempts to vote Kage but is not counted, Logic Votes DP, while Csargo, and Sooh are not voting.

NIGHT 2

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Good shit.

Still waiting for GH to do something even close to what he did to read Logic for Kage.

Too many people to lynch with too many question marks.

Dp/Sooh pls do something this is driving me a little insane.

Like I'm glad he's come around to Logic being town but I think he (GH) is still going to tell y'all to push on me in the coming days which is the objectively incorrect play.

I don't know if Sooh is ever this much of a non-factor, but I wouldn't be surprised?

I am a little bleh about Dp's activity being so low.

The only thing in Kage's favor was the activity and how he was actually like urging me to post even though all of my reads were already ITT?

I don't fucking know town just needs to posttttttt.

I'll be at home doing date of birth things for the majority of the day tomorrow, but I should be looking through thread during down time.

Should be around.

It'll be fine.

Triple post by Manasi

Yeah I didn’t know that I posted shade on you I was also quite drunk lmao.

Think most people would be able to tell I’m incredibly far out of my mafia range right now. It could be as easy as Dp/Csargo or something but if Dp flips town I’m gonna fuckin’ go guns blazing at Kage.

Those posts weren’t shit don’t be mean :(

EON1: GH is killed.

DAY 3

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Bussing?

He's a flipped villager dude.

This looks like a possible derp-clear, maybe a drunk/hungover post.

Yep, that's basically where I am. Feel bad that the game is locked in my head but I'll try to keep an open mind and reevaluate.

OK, maybe I was too harsh on Manasi earlier when I said it didn't look like she was following her process.

Yeah the mafia had to bus. They're not in the two confirmed people off wagon and it's not in AFK me.

I don't think you'd end up on a random wagon when someone's outted as mafia either.

I think the POE of Kage/Dp is solid so you're fine in LYLO.

If you're mafia you've already won ecks dee.

Responding to me and my (still currently valid) vote on Kage.
But, bussing is a much more likely scenario than being off-wagon or not voting (in Manasi's case, invalid voting.) This seems to point more in favor of Kage/DP than Manasi, and D1 voting all 3 were on flipped villagers that were reasonably competing wagons (as was I, for sake of full disclosure.)

THAT BEING SAID, mafia probably hops onto the wagon after the claim as opposed to before the claim.

Right?

Manasi's attempted vote for Kage was almost immediately after the day opened, and it looks like she made no attempt to change after the claim. This post looks like it is drawing attention to Manasi's voting record, and I am not liking this.

Don't go down this road.

I'm probably objectively the worst looking when it comes to interactions with Csargo, but you know as much as anyone on this game that this is probably the most engaged/involved I've been in a game on this site. I don't know if you think that would speak to my town equity or mafia equity, but I think it's something to be noted and used for a read as opposed to just my interactions with one of my friends while the thread was deceased.

This is the post I think most needs to be addressed. She's responding to me where I point out the GH interaction with Csargo and who Csargo would kill if he had a one-shot gun. The part that I find problematic is that Manasi also quoted Csargo's post and came to similar conclusions earlier, but now is telling me to not go looking at this further? That reads weird.

For what it's worth I got my sites all messed up and that was my attempt at a vote until I saw the votecount and I cried.

Could be legitimate, but I read this as more like manipulation of emotions; an attempt to gain our sympathy.

Also you need to make a decision because it seems like today's the day where everyone is locking in their POE.

And you don't seem to be getting to one. Scumreading three people when you have two lynches is nagl but I hope you figure it out in the next 21 hours.

Absolutely right. I'm not in the best position to be an authority, but each ISO has little things sticking out, and yours seems to have the most thus far. I may not end on you today, as I still have to go through Dp before day-end. But right now, I am leaning you.

@Kage: Stop tunnelling Manasi for a moment. Who is the remaining Mafia?

[Manasi]

Is GH ever this grossly wrong on Kage? Is it even worth looking st game history? I wanna park my vote there until he comes back and posts but I feel kinda bad doing so.

[Sooh]

Wow, this is rather sad.
Tempted to vote Kage just because he isn't around. 0 posting this late in the game is not good.

[Manasi]

I wanna give Kagemusha the benefit of the doubt just because of GH's read but when his last like 5 posts are just about killing me I don't know what I'm supposed to think.
@Kagemusha anyyyyything you wanna say? I don't know who's getting lynched btwn you or Dp but it's definitely one of you from what it SEEMS LIKE.

[Logic]

Catching up, this post worries me, a lot.


I find this level of aggression from you extremely... unsettling. You are expecting me to be completely pure in tone, and also somehow think that I can get that even while not being fully in thread? Like, imo, the main thing that good tone stems from is being extremely in-sync with how the thread is feeling, and that's near-impossible to have while not being around that much. I agree that my participation here has been spotty at best, and I did not anticipate being quite this rusty when I returned to the game. Honestly the "let's throw DP under the bus 100% with complete certainty and expect him to do things that he can't/doesn't (such as have good tone while not being around)" feels extremely reminiscent of my last org game with you as scum.

This is post GH claim, pre-reveal. I read this as more likely town, but it could be a reaction to having his buddy outed.

Welp, lolme. Ignore everything I just said in my last post. Vote: Csargo

If you lied about this, I'm coming for your head tomorrow.

And then he addresses the claim in the next post. Derp clear, or attempt to fake a derp-clear?
I read this as a little less likely to be genuine.

I feel like this is... probably something that's said more towards a wolf than a villager? Like, it feels like Csargo was internally going "ok, time to talk about a consensus town, this shouldn't be too hard", and then thought he could get away with saying a fair amount of vague good-sounding things that are similar to what others have said, relying on the fact that people are mostly already agreeing as a way to get out of having to fake too much work. If Manasi was scum with csargo here, I'd expect either a. continuing the "I can't really read manasi" thing throughout the post rather than trying to construct a townread that might link them together, or b. having more specific reasons to give the townread rather than just going with the flow. To expand on the latter option, if I thought I was fairly secure and had an opportunity to talk about a scumbuddy who was doing well, I'd emphasise what has been getting them townread as hard as I can, in order to try and support them more and hopefully promote us as a towncore. Instead, there's this weird non-specific read.

DP Points out a post by Csargo. Csargo calls Manasi town by gut after being pressed a bit by GH about Manasi and Kage. DP thinks this implicates Manasi moreso than anyone else. I am not sure where this places DP just yet, but this looks noteworthy to me.

Yeah, sorry, trying to lay stuff out now.

Moar attempted spew-reading attempts, since I never do this and need to get better at it, and the play is imo clearer if GH is lying so I see more value in trying to catch the scum after Csargo:

The logic read feels somewhat like providing support to a scumbuddy who has improved dramatically and trying to push that point into people's heads. If logic was town here, I feel like scum!csargo would be focussing on lacklustre prior actions rather than trying to paint a picture of improvement.

Vague Manasi read is *noted*, but not sure exactly what it means.

Tries to discredit kage via logic, in a way that strikes me as honestly weird regardless of alignment. Leaving aside the part where it's honestly fairly wrong, I'm not sure what incentive there is as either alignment to make this push based off of logic's. This would make town!logic somewhat more likely, but it's also possible that this is a wolf-team coordinating somewhat clumsily to push a mislynch (although why they wouldn't go on me is a mystery to me).

This looks pretty good, and adds credibility to scum!Manasi theory, but mostly by adding another assenting voice. The post by Csargo he is quoteing is of more value, I think.

Someone talk to me pls I know it's not the best hour but idk what I'm doing.

This makes Dp sound desperate. I had placed his skill higher than apparently he does, so if he's faking, this is pretty good, performance-wise. I'm thinking he is better than this, but everyone has their own doubts. I've gone back and forth on my reads throughout, so I can't say I blame him. This post of Dp is immediately followed by Kage's "Vote Csargo" which I could be a point against Dp.

Yeah, that’s the other thing. Even besides the potential post-flip associations, this has been the towniest Manasi I’ve seen in forever, and honestly the most interest I’ve ever seen her have in solving.

At the time I saw this post, I liked it a lot. I'm not the only person that saw this as Manasi's towniest game ever (Sooh and now Dp have agreed as much.) but going back through Manasi's posts had me doubting that. Here, DP is quoting Sooh, and could be parroting what at the time, I believe had already been said by Sooh, GH, and myself.

I’m honestly shocked that you think I know what I’m doing. Maybe I haven’t brought it up here much, but my personal opinion of my towngame is that it’s complete garbage. Like, I have never had any amount of confidence in my town game, and if you think this seems not like me (and, especially, not like me enough to vote me over a track result then I just don’t understand you.

This is where Dp calls into question his own skill. I don't think this is a town response. I read this like:
scum!Dp: "Oh, I was wrong? Well, I'm not very good."
Town!Dp: "I win by luck as town, mostly."

And granted, while I am putting words into his mouth, I don't like either answer.

But a second reading occurs to me as a type this:
Dp readily admits that his TOWN game is garbage. His omission of his scum game makes me take some town points from him.

I didn’t read it as condescending, I just think it shows a fundamental lack of understanding of how I view the game and myself.

Self-shading again. I think he is trying to tell us to not read too much into his reads. I do agree, I don't understand how he views the game, because I've not committed to memory whataver anecdote would clue me in on how he does perceive the game.

Doesn’t matter, we got it right anyway! Thx Gh

Easy to fake, but could be genuine.

The Kage read, mostly. Felt like mafia would just make the read and move on, not talk about how odd it was.

Agree fully, I have no idea what kage is doing, this feels completely different to past games, making me decently confident in him not being town.

Not quoting because mobile, but I find it weird how in GH’s big wall on everyone my posts with actual analysis in them are ignored, and instead the only post that gets picked up is barely 2 sentences. Probably nothing, but, there’s a tiny part of me that feels like the possibility of GH fpsing and bussing is not out of the question.

EON2: GH is killed

Well, honestly not sure where to go from here. Logic is probably clear, I trust Manasi, sooh is IC so I guess Kage is all I have? Going to wait a bit for others to weigh in first, before I vote anyone.

First post of the day. Not voting, but leaning Kage before anyone else; same as where Manasi and I seem to be at the moment.

He was not flipped at the time of that post.

Responding to Manasi's derp-comment.

The reason I found that earlier kage post wolfy was because of how it seemed like a complete, maybe-deliberate misinterpretation of how manasi was acting/feeling. It was clearly just frustration with software not working the way she expected it to, but Kage turned it around into manasi being aggressive generally, when she had displayed no such tendencies up to that point. I really feel like it was a stretch, enough so that it's suspicious.

I really don't get why you call my attempts at finding spew "flailing for mislynches". Like, you say that it's scummy, but what about it makes you think that I can't have been trying to do that analysis as town? Just my later uncertainty, which is present in literally every game that I've played?

Responding to Sooh, last post as of #362.
This could be acting, and that is how I am reading this right now. So unless someone makes a GH-Chess level play, my vote remains on Kagemusha.

[Logic]

Also, Kage still has yet to post this phase. Anyone want to discuss that?

[Sooh]

Also, Kage still has yet to post this phase. Anyone want to discuss that?

That's why I kind of want to vote him. I don't like him checking out like that. I don't particularly want dead weight in F3 if we mislynch today.

I also think that if I was scum in this game I would probably be tryharding more than 0 posting.

[Manasi]

Wow, this is rather sad.
Tempted to vote Kage just because he isn't around. 0 posting this late in the game is not good.

DP's one post was that it's probably Kage.

Can't tell what Logic is thinking.

Kage's 0 posting.

It's a toss up right now which is great.

[Sooh]

Manasi, are you around? How do you think the last scum would be working this round?

[Sooh]

Heh you sniped me

[Manasi]

That's why I kind of want to vote him. I don't like him checking out like that. I don't particularly want dead weight in F3 if we mislynch today.

I also think that if I was scum in this game I would probably be tryharding more than 0 posting.

Well the only one putting in more than 3% effort is Logic right now so no matter what a mafia is basically 0-1 posting.

[Manasi]

Manasi, are you around? How do you think the last scum would be working this round?

Dunno, the two people in my POE aren't posting at all so maybe they've given up because the game is locked.

[Logic]

DP's one post was that it's probably Kage.

Can't tell what Logic is thinking.

Kage's 0 posting.

It's a toss up right now which is great.

I'm presently thinking that Kage > Dp > Manasi.

The problem with my process is to doubt EVERYTHING. I've tried to adopt a "If I am wrong, how am I wrong?" worldview in my general life, but when applied to this game, it can cause game-paralysis over a failure to trust in anything, including myself. Maybe that is what Dp is thinking as well.

[Logic]

One thing I am fairly sure of: Zack is chuckling to himself.

[Sooh]

I'm just scared Logic is that one scum who feels victory is near and braves it out.

[Manasi]

I'm just scared Logic is that one scum who feels victory is near and braves it out.

I'm pretty sure I've posted it before but if he's scum he's already won.

People didn't actually play the game so if he's scum playing like this then he deserves the win anyway.

We don't have the resources to tinfoil.

[Zack]

1 Kagemusha (Logic)

Not Voting: @Dp101, @Manasi, @Sooh

Not Posting: @Kagemusha

Voting ends in:

I think the tally is still just logic voting kage?

[Sooh]

I'm pretty sure I've posted it before but if he's scum he's already won.

People didn't actually play the game so if he's scum playing like this then he deserves the win anyway.

We don't have the resources to tinfoil.

I guess not. You want Kage? or Dp?

[Logic]

I think the tally is still just logic voting kage?

Unless I missed something, I concur.

[Sooh]

Great. 15 mins to EOD and I don't know where I want to vote.

I kind of think the last two lynches need to be Logic and Dp, but lolme.

[Manasi]

Vote: Kagemusha

[Manasi]

Great. 15 mins to EOD and I don't know where I want to vote.

I kind of think the last two lynches need to be Logic and Dp, but lolme.

Logic?

Do you mean Kage or are you actually tinfoiling this hard?

[Manasi]

One thing I am fairly sure of: Zack is chuckling to himself.

I prefer to think he's chortling.

[Sooh]

Logic?

Do you mean Kage or are you actually tinfoiling this hard?

I am tinfoiling yes.

If it's not Kage, who's next IYO?

[Manasi]

I am tinfoiling yes.

If it's not Kage, who's next IYO?

Dp. I've said it approximately 82 times.

[Sooh]

Ok. I'll give you both your Kage lynch. If that doesn't end the game, GL in F3.

[Manasi]

Hope the game just ends here glgl.

[Manasi]

Ok. I'll give you both your Kage lynch. If that doesn't end the game, GL in F3.

Good fight for a logic lynch I commend the effort put in from all parties.

[Sooh]

Good fight for a logic lynch I commend the effort put in from all parties.

What do you mean??

[Manasi]

What do you mean??

Nothing tbh.