Future of the European Union

[Montmorency]

The above cases are of course not at all directed toward a peer competitor such as Russia or China but given their gradual escalation in getting their way on the world stage over the last 15 years I personally believe it's building toward a short sharp conflict over something like Taiwan, North Korea, or the Ukraine in which they will try to give us a bloody nose and then open talks. Given the current apathy/dislike in the US and Western Europe toward Russia, the PRC, and most importantly the roles of the US and NATO in the world it'd be easy to see the PRC or Russians make such a calculated gamble that would be short of an all out war but at the same time demonstrate that the US is no longer a Superpower capable of contesting a Regional Power and thereby undermine any remaining confidence in our resolve to support friends and allies (think Suez in 1956 or South Vietnam in 1975).
With cold war tensions gone and mutual annihilation off the table (in the public's mind) the threat of a limited war with a Regional Power is actually more likely than before.

I agree well with this.

The adversaries have those same 'shiny toys' and if they gain a qualitative edge of significance they will likely demonstrate it. Until then they'll use Revolutionary Warfare with "polite people" in crimea and patriotic fishermen in the South China Sea and off the Senkaku Islands to ensure that if/when we need to defend ourselves it will initially be portrayed as us attacking civilians without cause.

Whatever the potential capabilities of Russian or Chinese conventional force in the future, their use will remain a high-risk, high-cost proposition that detracts from their other vectors (diplomacy, economics, asymmetric war). If they can get their way in a situation by other means - which they almost certainly can - then they will shun direct confrontation. The one countervailing motivation could be that the buildup of goodies gives certain hawks a hard-on for blowing their load (Buck Turgidson syndrome), and they become a dominant faction over more patient and realistic types.

i don't understand? :)

He claims that pooled efforts with limited budget synergy is nonsense, and opposing forward deployment of EU member forces to bypass mobility challenges because it may increase vulnerability is nonsense.