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Thread: Future of the European Union

  1. #301
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    i will. i will do it for you.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  2. #302
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    One thing that will have a reverberating impact on the EU - the arrest of Carlos Ghosn.

    Since Renault & Nissan were very well connected and the EU & Japan made a free trade zone, this will impact both the overall exports (plus & minus) but also things like Nissan not going to produce cars in the UK any more.
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  3. #303
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    but also things like Nissan not going to produce cars in the UK any more.
    come again?

    Of far more signaificance:

    “The unanimity rule in taxation increasingly appears as politically anachronistic, legally problematic and economically counterproductive. I am fully aware of how sensitive an issue this is, but that cannot mean that the discussion is off limits. So let’s begin this debate today.”

    The words of the EU discussing the end of the national veto on tax policy.
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  4. #304
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    I'm banking on the fact that UK won't leave EU - the cost is far too high, it's a total disaster so far.

    Also, bit of a mistake on my part, Nissan won't produce a certain model any more - they are rethinking their operations.

    Here -> https://www.theguardian.com/business...-in-sunderland

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...142818781.html
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  5. #305
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    I'm banking on the fact that UK won't leave EU - the cost is far too high, it's a total disaster so far.

    Also, bit of a mistake on my part, Nissan won't produce a certain model any more - they are rethinking their operations.

    Here -> https://www.theguardian.com/business...-in-sunderland

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/...142818781.html
    They won't immediately shut down all operations, as there is still physical and human infrastructure here for existing models. . What they will do is what they've done: move production of new models to elsewhere. As existing models come to the end of their life, there won't be any replacements, as all the new infrastructure has been set up in places where they won't suffer from the UK's post-Brexit situation. May had a meeting with Nissan execs shortly after she took power, assuring them that the UK would be a good place to continue business in. They've obviously weighed her words against her actions, and found her words to be worthless.

  6. #306
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Gammon says the UK is at war with the EU.

  7. #307
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    They won't immediately shut down all operations, as there is still physical and human infrastructure here for existing models. . What they will do is what they've done: move production of new models to elsewhere. As existing models come to the end of their life, there won't be any replacements, as all the new infrastructure has been set up in places where they won't suffer from the UK's post-Brexit situation. May had a meeting with Nissan execs shortly after she took power, assuring them that the UK would be a good place to continue business in. They've obviously weighed her words against her actions, and found her words to be worthless.
    Or perhaps it has something to do with the massive drop in Diesel sales in Europe due to the scandal in Germany due to extremely lax QC. Or perhaps the new free trade agreement with the UK - this means they will get tariff-free on cars even if they're made in Japan (one of the inevitable casualties of free trade agreements which are better overall but do create some loosers).

    But no. Nissan doesn't like May and therefore is moving. If they'd liked the PM they'd be building a whole new town here since personal relationships really matter that much...

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  8. #308
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Or perhaps it has something to do with the massive drop in Diesel sales in Europe due to the scandal in Germany due to extremely lax QC. Or perhaps the new free trade agreement with the UK - this means they will get tariff-free on cars even if they're made in Japan (one of the inevitable casualties of free trade agreements which are better overall but do create some loosers).

    But no. Nissan doesn't like May and therefore is moving. If they'd liked the PM they'd be building a whole new town here since personal relationships really matter that much...

    What new free trade agreement with the UK are you talking about? Have you been smoking Liam Fox's stash again? The new free trade agreement Japan recently signed that we benefit from was with the EU, which we are currently a member of. We will stop benefiting from that agreement on 1st April, courtesy of your vote.

    Brexit: Government didn't offer Nissan money to stay in UK (20th January 2017)
    Nissan was offered secret state aid to cope with Brexit, minister concedes (4th February 2019)

    Lies and deception - that's the Brexit way.

  9. #309
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    What new free trade agreement with the UK are you talking about? Have you been smoking Liam Fox's stash again? The new free trade agreement Japan recently signed that we benefit from was with the EU, which we are currently a member of. We will stop benefiting from that agreement on 1st April, courtesy of your vote.

    Brexit: Government didn't offer Nissan money to stay in UK (20th January 2017)
    Nissan was offered secret state aid to cope with Brexit, minister concedes (4th February 2019)

    Lies and deception - that's the Brexit way.
    Politicians lying??!? Say it ain't so! Something that only done by the Brexiteers, eh?

    Apologies, the EU, not the UK.

    My mistake aside... you appear to ignore both the decrease of diesel and that the agreement reduces tarrifs... so Nissan might as well build them in Japan. So this is in fact due to the EU/Japan agreement.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
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  10. #310
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    https://www.cbronline.com/news/european-commission-mob

    Well that did not end well when you have to negotiate a deal with the people. The EU called the protesters on copyright issues a "mob".
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  11. #311
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    So, fours dsys later and i can no longer contain my amazement that the topic isn't fizzing with reaction to Jupiters encyclical on the future of the eu.

    does nobody care?
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  12. #312
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    So, fours dsys later and i can no longer contain my amazement that the topic isn't fizzing with reaction to Jupiters encyclical on the future of the eu.

    does nobody care?
    I have some questions:

    1. Who are the Jupiters?
    2. Is encyclical an adjective, a verb or a noun and how is it related to cycling or cycles?
    3. Why can I not find any recent articles about the EU when I use your words as search terms? All I get are space missions, completely unrelated stuff and one article about Macron not being a Jupiter from 2017.


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  13. #313
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    I have some questions:

    1. Who are the Jupiters?
    2. Is encyclical an adjective, a verb or a noun and how is it related to cycling or cycles?
    3. Why can I not find any recent articles about the EU when I use your words as search terms? All I get are space missions, completely unrelated stuff and one article about Macron not being a Jupiter from 2017.
    If you can't find anything then nobody does care.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  14. #314
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    I have some questions:

    1. Who are the Jupiters?
    2. Is encyclical an adjective, a verb or a noun and how is it related to cycling or cycles?
    3. Why can I not find any recent articles about the EU when I use your words as search terms? All I get are space missions, completely unrelated stuff and one article about Macron not being a Jupiter from 2017.
    Niche terms are usually understood by insiders in Facebook (or other social media) circles. The Leave campaign used phishing to get user data, which they then used for targeted ad campaigns on Facebook primarily disseminating untruths. When a Parliamentary committee asked the director of this campaign for information on what they'd been telling people, he refused. The committee published some of these ads, but not having been in these circles, they do not have a full list.

    Jupiter is probably a nickname used by said circle to refer to some individual or other. Encyclical might be their term for a circular letter; rarely seen in the normal world, but when the leader in one of these circles uses it, it becomes current among the members of that circle. So for Furunculus, those words immediately mean something to him, but to us outsiders, these words might as well be gobbledigook.

  15. #315
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Conspiracy theory stuff is fake news.

    No need for a conspiracy theory when the truth will do just nicely.

    Everyone in france (and informed people elsewhere), is aware that Jupiter=Macron:
    https://www.google.com/search?client...macron+jupiter
    One 188k results

    Re: encyclical - i do you all the credit of being educated chaps, so i consider it clearly to be understood:
    That the word combined with Macrons divine self-image, references his attempt to speak to europe about the EU.

    But, i'm guessing his grand vision doesn't enthuse anyone...
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  16. #316
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Re: encyclical - i do you all the credit of being educated chaps, so i consider it clearly to be understood:
    That the word combined with Macrons divine self-image, references his attempt to speak to europe about the EU.
    I kinda figured the Macron thing from the one article I found about him and had encyclical figured out with a simple search before I even sent the last post. But since I don't want to have to search several times whenebver I try to answer you, it can't hurt to use somewhat plainer language. Being educated doesn't mean one is a walking dictionary of everything. It simply saves everybody some time. I also try not to ask you about German politics using the local language, terms and jokes you don't know.

    I assume you mean this: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...mmanuel-macron

    (see, providing a simple link to a source that you and I can trust gives a much better basis for debate than cryptic slang terms that you then disguise as intellectual talk )

    It sounds a lot less neoliberal than I expected from Macron, but at the same time it seems vague enough that a lot could happen in practice.
    EU reform is not a bad idea though, if Brexit leads to that, then thank you for not ruining it for us any longer.


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  17. #317

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    It sounds a lot less neoliberal than I expected from Macron, but at the same time it seems vague enough that a lot could happen in practice.
    EU reform is not a bad idea though, if Brexit leads to that, then thank you for not ruining it for us any longer.
    Yanis Varoufakis around the same time on EU reform (European New Deal), and the European Spring coalition running in the EU parliamentary elections this May:

    The 2008 global financial crisis — the modern 1929 crash — set off a vicious chain reaction across Europe. By 2010 it had irreparably damaged the foundations of the eurozone, causing the establishment to bend its own rules and commit crimes against logic in order to bail out its banker friends. By 2013 the neoliberal ideology that had legitimised the EU’s oligarchic technocracy had plunged millions into misery, even through the enactment of official policies: socialism for the financiers and harsh austerity for the many. These policies were practised as much by conservatives as by social democrats. By 2015 the surrender of the Syriza government in Greece had divided and disheartened the left, robbing Europe of the short-lived hope that progressives rising up in the streets would alter the balance of power.

    Since then, anger has combined with hopelessness to create a vacuum, soon filled by the organised misanthropy of a Nationalist International triumphing across Europe, and making Donald Trump a very happy man. Against the background of an establishment that increasingly resembles the unhappy Weimar Republic, and of the recalcitrant racists produced by the crisis’s deflationary forces, the European Union is fragmenting. With Angela Merkel on the way out and Emmanuel Macron’s European agenda dead on arrival, the European election in May could prove the last chance progressives have to make a difference at a pan-European level.
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Something very odd has been happening in recent years: many on the left have come to view open borders as bad for the working class. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise has said several times, ‘I’ve never been in favour of freedom of arrival.’ In a speech on posted workers at the European Parliament in July 2016, he said migrants were ‘taking the bread out of the mouths’ of French workers. He has since regretted this statement, though his views on the impact of migration on French wages have not changed.

    This is not new. In 1907 Morris Hillquit, the founder of the Socialist Party of America, tabled a resolution to end ‘the wilful importation of cheap foreign labour’, arguing that migrants were a ‘pool of unconscious strike-breakers’. What is new is that much of the left seems to have forgotten Lenin’s fierce reaction in 1915 to Hillquit’s call for curbs on migration: ‘We think that one cannot be internationalist and be at the same time in favour of such restrictions … Such socialists are in reality jingoists.’

    Lenin had provided the context in an article on 29 October 1913:

    ‘There can be no doubt that dire poverty alone compels people to abandon their native land, and that the capitalists exploit the immigrant workers in the most shameless manner. But only reactionaries can shut their eyes to the progressive significance of this modern migration of nations … capitalism is drawing the masses of the working people of the whole world … breaking down national barriers and prejudices, uniting workers from all countries.’

    DiEM25 adopts Lenin’s apt analysis: walls that curb the free movement of people and goods are a reactionary response to capitalism. The socialist response is to bring down the walls and allow capitalism to undermine itself, while we organise transnational resistance to capitalist exploitation everywhere. It is not migrants who steal the jobs of native workers but governmental austerity, which is part of the class war waged on behalf of the domestic bourgeoisie.

    This is why we are adamant that xenophobia-lite must never be allowed to contaminate our agenda. As my friend Slavoj Žižek says, a leftist nationalism is a cruel and inane response to National Socialism. So DiEM25’s position on newcomers is that we refuse to differentiate between migrants and refugees. And we call upon Europe to #LetThemIn.
    Comrades from across Europe call us utopian and say the EU cannot be reformed. They may well be right. So for argument’s sake, let us agree that the EU is unreformable. Is progressives’ best response to adopt Lexit (the leftwing campaign for the controlled disintegration of the EU)? Some of my happiest memories are of addressing large audiences in Germany in 2015, soon after Syriza’s surrender to Angela Merkel and the troika (the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission). They were desperate to convey that what had been done to Greece had not been done in their name, the name of the German people. I remember how relieved they were on hearing the DiEM25 call to form one transnational movement, to unify, to fight together, to seize control of EU institutions — European Investment Bank (EIB), ECB etc — and re-deploy them in the interests of all Europeans.

    I still feel the elation of our German comrades on hearing our idea to run Greek candidates in Germany and German candidates in Greece to signify that our movement is transnational, that it intends to take over the neoliberal order’s institutions everywhere and at once, not to wreck them but to make them work for the many, in Brussels, Berlin, Athens, Paris. Everywhere.

    Compare this with how they would have felt had I told them that the EU was unreformable and must be disbanded; that Greeks must fall back to their nation state and try to build socialism there, while Germans did the same. Once we succeeded, our delegations could meet to discuss collaboration between our newly sovereign progressive states. Our German comrades would undoubtedly have felt deflated, and returned home depressed, thinking that they would have to face the German establishment as Germans, not as part of a transnational movement.

    If I am right, it does not matter whether the EU is or isn’t reformable, but it does matter that we put forward concrete proposals on what we would do with EU institutions. Not utopian proposals but complete descriptions of what we would do this week, next month, in the next year, under the existing rules and with the existing instruments — how we would reassign the role of the awful European Stability Mechanism, reorient the ECB’s quantitative easing, and finance immediately, and without new taxes, a green transition and campaign against poverty.

    Why such a detailed agenda? To show voters that there is an alternative, even within the rules designed by the establishment to further the interests of the top 1%. No one expects the EU institutions to adopt our proposals, least of all us. All we want is for voters to see what could be done, instead of what is being done, so that they can see through the establishment without turning to the xenophobic right. This is the only way the left can escape its confines and build abroad progressive coalition.
    DiEM25’s New Deal for Europe aims at this; it shows how the lives of the majority of people can be improved in the short run under existing rules and with the current institutions. And it maps out the transformation of these institutions while charting a constitutional assembly process that will, in the longer run, lead to a democratic European constitution to replace all existing treaties.
    Everyone talks about the importance of the green transition. What they do not say is where the money will come from and who will plan it. Our answer is clear: Europe needs to invest €2 trillion between 2019 and 2023 in green technologies, energy etc. We propose that the EIB issues an additional volume of its bonds, €500bn annually for four years, and that the ECB announces that, if their value drops, it will purchase these on the secondary bond market. With that announcement, and the glut of savings around the world, the ECB will not have to spend a single euro, as the EIB bonds will sell out. A new European Green Transition Agency, modelled on the Marshall Plan’s Organisation for European Economic Cooperation (the OECD’s precursor), will channel those funds to green projects across the continent.

    This proposal requires no new taxes, builds on an existing European bond and is fully legal under existing rules. The same applies to our other proposals, such as our Anti-Poverty Fund: we propose that the billions of profits of the European System of Central Banks (from assets purchased under the ECB’s quantitative easing or from the Target2 payment system) be used to provide every European under the poverty line with food, shelter and energy security.

    Another example is our plan to restructure the eurozone’s public debt: the ECB mediates between states and money markets to reduce their total debt burden, but without printing money or making Germany pay for, or guarantee, the public debt of the more indebted countries.

    As these demonstrate, our New Deal combines technically competent plans, implementable under the EU’s existing framework, with a radical departure from austerity and the troika’s bailout logic. And it goes further by tabling new institutions that prepare for a post-capitalist European future.

    A plan for post-capitalism proposes to partly socialise capital and the returns from automation: big business corporations’ right to operate in the EU will be conditional on transferring a percentage of their shares to a new European Equity Fund. The dividends from these will then fund a Universal Basic Dividend (UBD) to be paid to each European citizen independently of other welfare payments or unemployment insurance.

    Our proposals for reforming the euro are another radical change. Before getting bogged down in changing the charter of the ECB, we plan to create a public digital-payments platform in every eurozone country. Using their national tax office’s existing digital platform, taxpayers would have the opportunity to purchase digital tax credits, which they can use to pay one another or to pay future taxes at a substantial discount. These credits would be denominated in euros but transferable only between taxpayers within a single country, so would be impervious to sudden capital flight.

    Governments would be able to create a limited number of these fiscal euros, to be given to citizens in need or used for the funding of public projects; fiscal euros would allow stressed governments to stimulate demand, lessen the tax burden, and ultimately reduce the crushing power of the ECB and costs of exiting the euro (or of the euro’s disintegration). In the long term, public digital-payment platforms would form a managed system of country-specific euros that work like an International Clearing Union, a modern version of John Maynard Keynes’s 1944 vision for the Bretton Woods system, which sadly failed to materialise.


    Our New Deal for Europe is a comprehensive plan for smartly re-deploying existing institutions in the interests of the majority, planning for a radical, post-capitalist green future, and preparing to pick up the pieces if the EU collapses.
    Well-meaning leftwing friends ask, ‘Why doesn’t DiEM25 join up with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise or Sahra Wagenknecht and Oskar Lafontaine’s Aufstehen movement in Germany? How can the left make a difference if you fail to unite?’ The reason is simple: our duty is to create unity on a foundation of radical, rational and internationalist humanism. This means a common agenda for all Europeans and a radical policy of an Open Europe that recognises borders as scars on the planet and newcomers as welcome. Nothing less will do.

    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  18. #318
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Bit of a necro-thread rival but this was the most appropriate place:

    Germany's goal of a European federal state proves elusive
    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-goal-...ive/a-60539427

    It's a vision that is even included in the deal underpinning Germany's new coalition government. But the dream of a European superstate has lost much of its luster and left Germany looking increasingly isolated.
    Germany's new three-party coalition government of Social Democrats (SPD), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) shares the goal of turning the EU into a European federal state. But viewed against the backdrop of current developments, it is a hugely ambitious project and no other European government has the same zeal for integration as that expressed in the ruling coalition's governing deal.

    Which is perhaps surprising given the bloc's long tradition of fervent visions for its future. Back in 1957, the Treaty of Rome spoke of the "ever closer union among the peoples of Europe." And in 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon echoed that striving for "ever closer union." Jacques Delors, president of the European Commission from 1985 to 1995, believed that Europe was like a bicycle moving ever closer towards further integration: "Stop pedaling and the bike will fall over!" These days, that kind of almost unquestioning commitment to a trans-European federation is rare. Indeed, the movement that came to be known as Brexit left the bike struggling to stay on track, in the biggest blow yet to a shared European future.
    Turning away from the EU vision
    The UK had long been seen as particularly skeptical when it came to Europe. But on a visit to Berlin in March 2018, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte appeared to want to demonstrate that his euroskeptic credentials were second to none: "There has been this narrative that there is this inevitability of closer cooperation in a European federal state. This horrible language about 'ever closer Union' I don't like." Rutte rejected what he dismissed as the "romance" of an ever-closer European Union."

    Even Donald Tusk, then president of the European Council, was quoted as saying at a European Business Summit in 2016: "Forcing lyrical and in fact naïve Euro-enthusiastic visions of total integration, regardless of the obvious good will of their proponents, is not a suitable answer to our problems. Firstly because it is simply not possible, and secondly because — paradoxically — promoting them only leads to the strengthening of Euroskeptic moods, not only in the UK."
    And it was quite a setback when in 2005 the Netherlands and France — both viewed as staunchly pro-European nations — voted in referendums to reject a European constitution. The clear message was: the vision of ever closer unity did not represent the will of the majority of the people in these countries. A number of governments with far-right populist leadership or participation, for example in Hungary and Poland, also rejected further integration.

    Federal Europe: 'Nobody really wants it'
    So is it blind or brave for the coalition government in Berlin to ignore the current climate of cynicism and continue to push for a European federal state? Political scientist Johannes Varwick from the University of Halle told DW that it's not worth investing in the federal vision: "If the coalition parties really believe in this, then they will find themselves being caught up by the reality that is Europe. Fact is: nobody in Europe really wants it."

    It was above all the Brexit vote that persuaded lawyer Daniel Röder to found the pro-European citizens' initiative Pulse of Europe. The aim was to come up with new ideas to galvanize Europe — and not just the politicians and bureaucrats, but also ordinary European citizens. Still, Röder admits he was "surprised" to see the goal of a federal Europe suddenly popping up in the coalition agreement.
    He is one person who certainly needs no additional encouragement to push for further integration. "When you look at the huge challenges that we're facing: climate change, integration, pandemics, the conflict with Russia and so on — well, you're not going to achieve much as an individual nation-state. And we can't leave everything up to China or the US, so we need further European integration." However, he adds: a European federal state "isn't necessarily the goal."

    European or national solutions: Keep your options open
    Just how much integration is ideal varies from issue to issue. In some areas, the EU has gone a long way towards becoming a federal state. Take the development of the single market, or joining forces in the export sector. In other areas, however, countries have been reluctant to give up on their sovereignty and instead focus on shared policy initiatives.
    The battle against the COVID pandemic has only underlined this tendency. Health policies are the prerogative of the individual countries — a reality that is welcomed by some and questioned by others. On the other hand, the EU did manage to pull together to come up with a huge economic recovery package designed to ease financial hardship caused by the pandemic.

    The fund also illustrates how contentious joint projects can be. When it comes to money, the big question will inevitably remain: Who pays and who profits? For the more prosperous EU member states, the constant concern is that less well-off countries will try to draw them into some kind of arrangement that involves mutualized spending and mutualized borrowing.

    The chicken or the egg
    Johannes Varwick says that it might be easy to dismiss the very notion of further integration. Still, he cautions: "People should think twice before abandoning such a vision." Daniel Röder from Pulse of Europe, on the other hand, says that for him it's not about visions, but realizing that if you don't move forward, you're likely to end up going backwards.

    Röder says that he sees the EU in the current stage of its development as a "fragile and often ineffective construction. Only when it is capable of assuming a more credible and effective role in the interaction of global powers, will it have more clout and greater acceptance, both internally and externally." It's a chicken and egg thing, Röder concludes ominously: "No acceptance means no advancement; no advancement means no acceptance. It's a dilemma that we must resolve — otherwise, I fear the worst for this union."
    I think that after the eurozone financial crisis, the migration crisis, brexit, and the current EU/NATO dithering in regards to Russia sorta show that a European state will not happen within the near future. From my outside view it looks like most people are happy with the economic union and its benefits but extremely wary of further political union. Perhaps in a few decades but peoples national identities are still far stronger than a European one. Kind of a Holy Roman Empire situation, when unified in action it is impressive but usually ineffective due to squabbling.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
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    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

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  19. #319

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    Bit of a necro-thread rival but this was the most appropriate place:

    Germany's goal of a European federal state proves elusive
    https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-goal-...ive/a-60539427



    I think that after the eurozone financial crisis, the migration crisis, brexit, and the current EU/NATO dithering in regards to Russia sorta show that a European state will not happen within the near future. From my outside view it looks like most people are happy with the economic union and its benefits but extremely wary of further political union. Perhaps in a few decades but peoples national identities are still far stronger than a European one. Kind of a Holy Roman Empire situation, when unified in action it is impressive but usually ineffective due to squabbling.
    We also have to note that

    "No acceptance means no advancement; no advancement means no acceptance. It's a dilemma that we must resolve — otherwise, I fear the worst for this union."
    applies to the sovereign constituents of the EU. The countries, and seemingly the peoples, of Europe basically can't envision any kind of future for themselves separately. How many perceive anything to hope or strive for beyond watching the slow train wreck of the 21st century pass through? People have their eyes to their feet in national terms, so how would they coalesce together around a supernational aspiration?

    The accelerationist premises, if not the arguments, are probably applicable: woe begets violence, the great leveler.

    Too few people have the commitment or confidence in us working to solve big problems.
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  20. #320
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    From my outside view it looks like most people are happy with the economic union and its benefits but extremely wary of further political union.
    In the good times, yes. When there are no 'consequences' to doing nice economicky things that make us feel all EUropean.
    But these are not the good times, and we expect 'the state' to step in and do extraordinary things to preserve our declining welfare.

    Germany benefits from the single currency by having its natural foriegn exchange rate suppressed by the wider currency region. Its goods are cheaper, but by the same token it raises the exchange rate for the wider currency region. Making their goods more expensive.

    And this happens whilst engaging in none of the normal solidarity acts that nation states engage in to normalise wealth potential within the 'regions':

    Federal US taxation is ~25% of GDP and the variation in spending levels between rich and poor states is ~5% of GDP, so a variation of roughly 20% of federal spending.

    How big a budget would the EU need to be able to slosh around 5% of combined GDP into the poor regions (bearing in mind the current budget is only 1% (and heavily constrained by CAP payments)?

    The other point is that americans accept this, they are all american, whereas we are rapidly finding out just how german the germans are, and finnish the finns are, when it comes to firehosing cash at nations they consider to be essentially delinquent! In the UK this ‘sloshing’ occurs in the form of:

    a) National pay-bargaining which benefits poorer regions (teachers, nurses, etc)

    b) National social benefits more generous than poorer regions could afford alone (eg.housing benefit in glasgow)

    c) Targeted regional development grants/discounts to encourage business growth (objective 1 EU/WEFO funds)

    d) Additional infrastructure spending to support the local economy (the mainland-skye bridge)

    e) Operating national services hubs from depressed regions to boost wages (DVLA in swansea, etc)

    Unless Germany recognises the ‘familial’ relationship, and the obligation that goes along with that, then it needs to leave for the good of its neighbours.

    This principal applies equally to the netherlands and finland, but since it is Germany that is the driving economic power for the euro’s sake the answer must be ‘right’.

    One mechanism to equalise this foriegn exchange disparity would be eurobonds. To compensate for a higher than natural foriegn exchange rate the wider currency union would borrow collectively, and thus lower their borrowing costs on the back of Germany’s strength.

    The quid-pro-quo would be that Germany’s cost of borrowing would rise, as it too would be borrowing through the wider currency union and would see its strength diluted in consequence.

    What is happening right now is commonly termed “wanting to have your cake, and eat it too“, an attitude considered ugly by weaker members of the polity who consider that cake to be shared treat.

    An economic union cannot exist long term without a political union from which to draw legitimacy from for the acts that it must take in regulating society.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 01-26-2022 at 11:39.
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  21. #321
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    EU's border-free Schengen zone needs overhaul, political leadership - Macron
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2022-02-02/
    The European Union's border-free Schengen area should be managed by regular ministerial meetings, just like the euro zone, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday, adding that this could start as early as next month.

    National security concerns, waves of migration and, most recently, the coronavirus pandemic have led to the re-emergence of border controls in the Schengen zone and much criticism of how it functions, eroding what had been hailed as a milestone achievement in Europe's post-World War Two integration.

    Speaking to EU justice and interior ministers, Macron said what he dubbed the "Schengen Council" would evaluate how the border-free area was working but would also take joint decisions and facilitate coordination in times of crisis.

    "This Council can become the face of a strong, protective Europe that is comfortable with controlling its borders and therefore its destiny," he said in the northern French town of Tourcoing. He said its inaugural meeting could take place when the EU's justice and home affairs ministers next gather, on March 3.
    "We must reform Schengen," he said. "There can be no freedom of movement if we do not control our external borders."

    France has also proposed an emergency response mechanism that could be triggered when the bloc's external borders are under threat.
    Wonder how far along he'll get in his proposals, Frontex certainly needs more help, the countries that are the first stop for refugees and migrants certainly need far more help in housing, transport, and processing. The power dynamics that Morocco, Belarus, and Turkey have used with migrants certainly has shown that the EU is lacking in a unified front and most of the burden is on the bordering nations.

    Something needs to be done to save the Schengen zone's positive benefits while limiting some of these negative outcomes and of course to save the lives of the migrants being used as pawns for power politics.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
    -Abraham Lincoln


    Four stage strategy from Yes, Minister:
    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

  22. #322
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Re: Schenghen and Frontex

    They're in a difficult position, as if they aren't willing to be as aggressive as Local enforcement (see: Poland), then domestic politics in frontline states will see the EU as enabling mass migration, and Frontex will be targetted over and above Local enforcement by rogue states like Belarus.

    If they aren't deemed credible, then frontline states will marginalise Frontex to safe bureaucratic roles behind the border, at which point is the involvement of the EU a net-benefit to frontline states?

    -------------------

    Separately:

    ECB keeps interest rate at -0.5% and quantitative easing at £20b/month despite inflation running at over 5%:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...stine-lagarde/

    Consumer prices soared by 5.1pc up in the year to January, up from 5pc in December, according to Eurostat’s first estimates. Economists had forecast a slowdown to 4.4pc.

    The rise was spurred by higher food and energy costs, which left the rate of inflation more than two-and-a-half times higher than the ECB’s 2pc target. Energy prices were 28.6pc higher, while unprocessed food cost 5.2pc more.

    With those volatile components stripped out, core inflation stood at 2.3pc, down from 2.6pc the previous month. Officials watch this measure as a better indicator of medium-term inflation.

    They provide a difficult backdrop as officials prepare to meet in Frankfurt on Thusday to decide on the course of eurozone monetary policy. Ms Lagarde has repeatedly said that high levels of price growth will fade as energy costs come back to normal and global supply chain issues fade.

    The ECB has laid out plans to move less speedily than the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve to cut back on its ultra-loose monetary policy stance.
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    In December, it set out an aim to cut asset purchases to €20bn a month by October, but members of its governing council have said they do not expect to increase rates this year.

    Markets think differently, however, and are pricing in three ECB rate rises in 2022, two fewer than the five increases expected from Threadneedle Street and the Fed. Increasing interest rates raises the cost of borrowing, with the aim of curbing inflation.
    This has to be causing political friction in Germany and the Netherlands. How will that manifest?
    My guess would be the steady erosion of trust in the Gov'ts that notionally were not elected on a cost-of-living manifesto (fair enough you might say, as they don't control monetary policy, but they still carry the can for the consequences).
    Last edited by Furunculus; 02-05-2022 at 10:59.
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  23. #323

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    The alternative to liquidity support is, of course, is a short-to-medium term decrease in living standards.

    Bank of England: Households must brace themselves for the biggest annual fall in their standard of living since comparable records began

    The Bank of England has raised interest rates to 0.5 per cent and signalled more hikes are on the way as it warned rocketing inflation will see the worst hit to household income for at least 32 years.

    The Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to raise rates from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent – marking the first back-to-back rise since 2004, coming after a quarter point increase at its last meeting in December.
    In a gloomy prediction for under-pressure households, the Bank said this will see disposable incomes fall by around 2 per cent – the worst impact since Bank records began in 1990.

    Ofgem’s 54 per cent energy price cap increase to around £1,971 in April is the driving force behind the inflation forecast hike, with the Bank predicting around another 10 per cent rise in the cap this October.

    But its forecasts do not take into account the Chancellor’s package of measures announced on Thursday, offering £350 support for the majority of UK households.
    But the Bank cooled financial market forecasts of a flurry of rate rises in 2022.

    It predicts that inflation will undershoot its 2 per cent target in the medium term if rates rise to 1.5 per cent by the middle of 2023, as financial markets expect, signalling it will take a more cautious approach.

    However, it gave a sobering alert on the impact of rising inflation on consumers and the wider economy.

    The Bank said sharp rises in energy prices and the cost of goods amid supply chain pressures will weigh on spending and growth.

    “This is something monetary policy is unable to prevent,” it cautioned.

    The Bank downgraded the growth outlook to 3.75 per cent in 2022 and 1.25 per cent in 2023 from the 5 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively predicted in November.
    Because so far Western governments refuse to get involved in industrial management and price controls, the most serious tool they have to reassure markets is the self-hobbling one of interest rate increases. Which in turn may have to be complemented by orthogonal fiscal support to households...

    When you only use the hammer you have to strike gingerly. As you say, EU-wide policy will piss off many people regardless of its direction.

    (Note also that the US is one of the only OECD countries to experience durable rises in disposable incomes during the pandemic, due to government policies.)
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-05-2022 at 00:54.
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  24. #324
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    EU vows to help prevent the possible breakup of Bosnia
    https://apnews.com/article/business-...2d0b45b4cfd2be
    BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union is ready to limit financial assistance and possibly impose sanctions in Bosnia to help prevent the possible breakup up of the ethnically divided Balkan country as the peace agreement brokered over 25 years ago unravels, the EU’s top diplomat vowed Monday.

    “There is no place in Europe for a divided Bosnia and Herzegovina. And those who work in this direction are strongly wrong,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after chairing a meeting of the bloc’s foreign ministers.

    The United States last month announced new sanctions against Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, who has for years been advocating that the Serb-run part of Bosnia should leave the rest of the country and unite with neighboring Serbia.

    The U.S. accused him of “corrupt activities” that threaten to destabilize the region and undermine the U.S.-brokered Dayton Peace Accord. Dodik says he and Bosnian Serbs are being unfairly targeted and wrongly accused of corruption.
    Quite frightening that with all that's going on in Ukraine that this part of the Balkans continues to have problems. The Balkans are one place that the EU experiment of supra-nationality not based on ethic/religious ties were in my mind the most promising but as these countries aren't yet part of the EU, and with this uptick in problems won't be.
    I hope this can be something that the EU can take lead on with the US supporting as the war on Serbia in the 90s was US and NATO lead, not EU/ECC.
    Last edited by spmetla; 02-22-2022 at 04:27.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
    -Abraham Lincoln


    Four stage strategy from Yes, Minister:
    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

  25. #325
    Member Member Xantan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Well, things have definitely changed in the past month or so, because of the war in Ukraine. Apart from the significant strengthening of core EU unity and a great coordination between states, there's also civic unity which is markedly pro-EU. (and also pro-Ukraine)

    https://www.euractiv.com/section/pol...n-as-possible/

    And there's also this, a major major change in German diplomacy and foreign policy...

    https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-german...ned/a-61457259

    https://mondediplo.com/2022/04/07german-rearmament

    Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, who had not made defence policy a central part of his election campaign last September, pledged €100bn to modernise the Bundeswehr and committed to spending more than 2% of GDP on defence annually, more than NATO’s target.

  26. #326
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Is this unity going to allow gov'ts to accept further integration?

    regardless of whether macron wins, the promises he is making to counter Le-Pen make france the wheel of the franco-german axis that just fell off.

    hungary and poland are busy pursuing a sovereignist agenda via obstructionism that is indifferent to 'european' sentiment.

    the traditional wet european 'security' agenda is morphing into a harder defence agenda, and that is happening at the nato level.

    eu inflation is at 7+ percent and yet the ECB still prints money and has negative interest rates while Germany fumes.
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  27. #327

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Can't have integration without French and German leadership, which continues to be absent or orthogonal.
    Vitiate Man.

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  28. #328
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Can't have integration without French and German leadership, which continues to be absent or orthogonal.
    indeed. related to that subject:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...on-the-way-out
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  29. #329
    The Philosopher Duke Member Suraknar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    This is a discussion from 2005 still going.

    While I have not read all of the discussion I am curious to see if the opinions expressed by some have changed over the years.

    In 2005 I may have had a different opinion of the EU and then by 2010 that opinion may have changed, especially after the events and handling of the 2008 Economical Crisis.

    So there are basically two fundamental views of the EU for me, the "Happy Reality View" formed during my youth in the 80's, and the "Sad reality view" formed thereafter as the years passed and based on actual decisions and actions of the people involved with the EU governance and Bureaucracy and Policy Making.

    The Happy Reality view is that of a Strong EU, no borders, between its members, a common currency, common Defense Force, several Aircraft Carriers Strong, opportunity for the people of all its members, and a celebration of its Cultural and Social Diversity.

    A Multicultural Europe, a Just Europe and a Prosperous Europe for all. A sort of United States of Europe.

    Which, ironically, could have included no only the eastern block countries but Russia itself come the dissolution of the Soviet Union. I really think this was a missed opportunity then which could have ensured many of the goals of that Reality and especially long lasting Peace and sovereignty of Cultures and Identities.

    Then, of course the Sad Reality version of Europe happened instead.

    Major players of Geopolitics ensured that the EU would never become strong and would remain divided, petty bickering about trivial issues to this day. Ensured that Russia never joins it either. And ensured that its Defense force would not evolve to be what was being planned, effectively making the EU an insignificant player in the Geopolitical board or even a non player, acting instead as the waiter for the actual players ensuring that their drinks and plates remain full and living on their Tipping.

    What is the future from here you say? Not guaranteed...and maybe bleak.

    Because other than the renewed aggressive actions of Russia and war on Ukraine. - which mind you I am of the opinion that, Russia was provoked in pulling the trigger, very poor ways of the world to handle the issues, while at the same time I condemn Russia for deciding to pull that trigger, failing for old and outdated trappings - causing the EU to to now have to buy its cutlery from the Customers that it serves on the Geopolitical Table.

    There is another impending issue, of the Climate Change. There has been at least 40 years (since the 80's) of inaction on the issue of the Environment and Climate. The Politicians and the Financial Interests they cater to, chose to ignore the growing problem in favor of own indulgence of Greed and Lust for Power.

    So, in reality the Earth has no Future the way we are still doing things and affairs are still going, let alone Europe. Catastrophe after Catastrophe the world will divide back in to tribes trying to survive, and until we are all dead, or at least most of us.

    Unless, somehow, there is a collective wisdom which compels us all to see the error of our way and decide to take right action.

    I like to call myself an Optimist but the world is sure falling in to pessimistic outcomes...war, suffering...lust for power...and Greed.... still. Business as usual.
    Last edited by Suraknar; 04-19-2022 at 04:15.
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  30. #330
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Emmanuel Macron has won a second term as President of France.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61209765
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

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