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Thread: Future of the European Union

  1. #271
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Without foreign support, a country like Sri Lanka or Zambia practicing maximum defiance against Chinese neocolonialism is going to have some hard times in short order. Whether China or non-national organizations, intsoc is necessary.
    Key point is without foreign support. We can be that support.


    These contracts are long-term, aren't they? Maybe the EU farmers have begun shifting buyers by now?
    If the contracts are long term they were written well before the Brexit vote, and I don't see how you wouldn't be obligated to fulfill the terms of the contract up until the moment of Brexit.
    I am expected to deliver grain shipment on March 30th, and I don't prepare that shipment because of Brexit but suddenly a deal is signed at the last moment and business continues as usual, am I not violating the contract?

    Can you even begin to shift buyers and make commitments before March 29th? No one knows the outcome yet.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  2. #272
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    *Californians

    I agree with the rest though.
    boo, autocorrect.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Most of the workers are Chinese. The elite get kickbacks, the Chinese get the infrastructure. See the British in India.
    Are those workers permanent? Are there Chinese residents across Africa now maintaining and operating it, or is it the local populace doing the day to day maintenance and operations? Makes a big difference between the legal ownership and the de facto ownership if we are talking about hardball politics.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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  3. #273

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Key point is without foreign support. We can be that support.




    If the contracts are long term they were written well before the Brexit vote, and I don't see how you wouldn't be obligated to fulfill the terms of the contract up until the moment of Brexit.
    I am expected to deliver grain shipment on March 30th, and I don't prepare that shipment because of Brexit but suddenly a deal is signed at the last moment and business continues as usual, am I not violating the contract?

    Can you even begin to shift buyers and make commitments before March 29th? No one knows the outcome yet.
    Not in our contemporary disposition. We can't outcolonialize or outcorrupt China, and we certainly shouldn't try. Western corps have historically been unleashed to this purpose already of course, but they're more enemy than servant of "free peoples".

    The problem is I don't know anything about agricultural markets, but to some extent I imagine Brexit has been priced in starting 2.5 years ago. That is, the process begins with the vote result, not with the deadline.

    Here's one report on a WTO/no-deal scenario I found, though just from a glance I can't tell if it describes the actual micro conduct of agribusiness contracts and financials: EU - UK agricultural trade: state of play and possible impacts of Brexit

    This report analyzes current UK-EU27 agri-food trade, and quantifies the
    impacts of a return to WTO rules after Brexit. Agri-food trade is likely to
    decrease steeply, especially for meat and dairy sectors. However, there
    might be an opportunity for an increase in production in a reduced
    number of European sectors, such as red meat, cattle or wheat, to
    replace imports from the UK. More generally, Ireland is likely to be the
    most negatively impacted country and deserves particular attention
    during the Brexit process
    The relationship between the UK and the EU27 is characterized by a marked
    dissymmetry. The EU27, as a whole, is a large market (more than 445 million
    inhabitants and a GDP of USD 13.8 thousand billion in 2016), while the UK is relatively
    smaller (a population of 65.6 million people and a GDP of USD 2.6 thousand billion).
    Thus, the EU27 represents a large market and outlet for UK exporters, while the UK is,
    in comparison, a small market for EU27 (even if it represents the main export
    destination of some agri-food sectors in given EU27 countries). For these reasons,
    macroeconomic impacts on the UK are significantly larger (e.g. -2.3% in GDP) than for
    EU27 (-0.3%). Nevertheless, the UK is currently the second largest EU28 country and
    is highly integrated with the EU27 in terms of trade and value chains. As a result, all
    the EU27 countries will be negatively affected by Brexit, the magnitude of the impact
    increasing with economic proximity to the UK. Ireland in particular (-3.4% in GDP,
    USD -63.4 billion), and to a much lesser extent Belgium and Luxembourg (-0.7%) and
    the Netherlands (-0.5%), are the most affected countries.
    Agri-food products are less traded than manufactured ones and contribute less in total
    GDP. They will face however the largest increases in trade protection, both in terms of
    tariffs and non-tariff measures. Agri-food exports of the EU27 to the UK will decrease
    by USD 34 billion (62%) and imports by USD 19 billion (with the same relative
    decrease, 62%).
    Trade diversion will take place; part of the decrease in exports to the UK will be
    compensated by an increase in intra-EU27 trade (+1%) as well as in exports to third
    countries (+0.9%). This is partly explained by a loss of UK’s competitiveness, due to
    higher prices of imported intermediary consumptions. In the end, agri-food exports of
    the EU27 to the world will decrease by 4.1% (USD -27 billion). The most affected
    sectors (in value terms) are processed food (USD -10.5 billion, -4.7%),1 which is also
    the most exported (33% of EU27 agri-food exports), white meat (USD -5.2 billion, -
    10.5%) and dairy (USD -4.6 billion, -7%). The Netherlands (USD -6.7 billion, -66%),
    Ireland (USD -6.5 billion, -71%) and France (USD -4.7 billion, -51%) undergo the
    largest drops in exports.
    Agri-food production and value added are also affected by trade with other countries
    as well as domestic demand. The relative magnitude of each of these effects
    (bilateral trade with the UK, trade with third countries and domestic demand) varies across
    countries and sectors and determines Brexit’s impact heterogeneity.
    In the UK, agrifood value-added increases (+2%), mainly because local production partially
    substitutes imports from the EU27. This takes place at consumers expense since
    consumption prices increase by 4%. In the EU27 as a whole, agri-food value-added
    decreases by 0.8%; the increase in exports to third countries and in intra-EU trade do
    not compensate for the loss of exports to UK. Even if in all EU27 countries, overall
    agri-food value-added decreases, some sectors like Red meat (+2.1%) and Cattle
    (+1.3%) in France gain thanks to their capacity to fulfill the domestic demand,
    replacing imports from the UK. The wheat sector in France is one of the few where
    value added increases (+1.7%) thanks to an increase in exports to other EU countries.
    The fall in agri-food value-added is particularly large in Ireland (-16%, with a collapse
    in white meat, -58%), because of the decrease in exports to UK but also to general
    equilibrium effects leading to a strong decrease in domestic demand.
    • Because of its tight relationship with the UK, of all EU27 countries, Ireland is affected
    the most by Brexit, and not only in agri-food sectors. In relative terms, its GDP
    decreases even more than UK's GDP (-3.4% vs -2.4%). This is explained by a drop in
    Irish agri-food exports to the UK and to the rest of the World, including EU27 countries
    as Irish production relies heavily on imported intermediates from the UK.
    Hmm, UK always screwing the Irish.

    But the term we're looking for is therefore "trade diversion". For EU producers who have been exporting to the UK, what is the nature of Brexit-related trade diversion? Here's a study on UK but not EU. TLDR

    Articles on why EU agricultural policy (CAP) is good or bad. Articles on effect of Brexit on CAP. IDK what on the nitty gritty of how trade is executed.

    That's about as much as I'm willing to work on this subject.

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Are those workers permanent? Are there Chinese residents across Africa now maintaining and operating it, or is it the local populace doing the day to day maintenance and operations? Makes a big difference between the legal ownership and the de facto ownership if we are talking about hardball politics.
    AFAIK yes, Chinese nationals

    Small developing countries generally have a bad track record of trying to seize and operate technologically-reliant industry, nah?
    Last edited by Montmorency; 01-06-2019 at 02:43.
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  4. #274
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    boo, autocorrect.



    Are those workers permanent? Are there Chinese residents across Africa now maintaining and operating it, or is it the local populace doing the day to day maintenance and operations? Makes a big difference between the legal ownership and the de facto ownership if we are talking about hardball politics.
    I don't know about Africa, but in Pakistan the Pakistani (middle class) are complaining that all the higher end jobs are taken by Chinese, meaning that even "investment" has little meaning, as all the skilled jobs that build up a middle class are reserved for Chinese. Presumably it's the same in African countries as well, and anywhere else they're doing this. The last I heard is that in Kenya they were taking over port facilities that were defaulted on. And it's formal Chinese policy to build a new Silk Road on the high seas, gaining control of strategic points between China and Africa.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Oh hang on. The replacement of the EU with Nigeria isn't a political conclusion, but a condition of the study, because



    Is the EU not an economic bloc? Has the EU not acted as a political bloc wrt the UK during the exit negotiations? Is this a way to remove the EU from consideration because the EU is too powerful to fit into the chosen narrative?
    don't get me wrong, i have my own questions about the methodology:

    1. it would have been valuable to include citations of research, not just total investment, as a measure to capture the quality of research. a way to excise all the valueless grievance studies, but i understand that data was difficult to capture.
    2. it would have been interesting to include all the EU G20 nations as an composite to capture the 'power' of the EU. yes, you would lose the value of the minor nations, but you also have to consider the penalty induced by the poor decision making process.

    but in so far as it goes, i think it is a valuable piece of work.
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  6. #276
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    France is realy heating up, they are like that they are hotheads, tell me about it I had a few French girlfriends. Things look bad for Macron, and all the better for those who do not want any eu

    Everybody knew this was going to happen
    Last edited by Fragony; 01-06-2019 at 14:24.

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    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    What is to stop a country from nationalizing it?
    A US invasion to stop the country from going communist.

    There are countries where children are allowed to smoke because the government once dared to try and ban smoking and thereby violated the interests of international investors...
    Don't underestimate the enforcement power of international capitalism as long as the investor is rich enough and not a small or medium business owner.
    Last edited by Husar; 01-06-2019 at 16:58.


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    Member Member Stazi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    France is realy heating up, they are like that they are hotheads, tell me about it I had a few French girlfriends. Things look bad for Macron, and all the better for those who do not want any eu

    Everybody knew this was going to happen
    I'm not sure what's going to happen but the funny thing is that it all blew up in the Macron's face a few days after he said to Trump that EU will build an army to fight against US. Coincidence? I don't think so. Generally, the whole idea of EU army is far beyond bad. It's totally evil. Only people who doesn't know the last 100 years of European history can think that's a good idea.
    "Do not fight for glory. Do not fight for love of your lord. Do not fight for hatred, honor or faith. Fight only for victory and you will succeed." - Uji sensei.

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    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    AFAIK yes, Chinese nationals

    Small developing countries generally have a bad track record of trying to seize and operate technologically-reliant industry, nah?
    Hmm, then I shall resume my fear of Chinese hegemony until their demographic crisis undermines their treasury.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  10. #280
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    A US invasion to stop the country from going communist.

    There are countries where children are allowed to smoke because the government once dared to try and ban smoking and thereby violated the interests of international investors...
    Don't underestimate the enforcement power of international capitalism as long as the investor is rich enough and not a small or medium business owner.
    I don't think the US would care about the type of government if we are talking about a hypothetical Cold War with China for influence in Africa.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  11. #281

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Hmm, then I shall resume my fear of Chinese hegemony until their demographic crisis undermines their treasury.
    Not sure what your focus on the treasury is, the Chinese state exists on its centrifugal force of action, which isn't reliant on mere balance sheets, just like budget deficits will never bring down the United States. It's the social conditions that matter, and those aren't favorable anywhere, let alone undergirding a fantasy of Cold War. Birth rates in the US are and have also steeply declined, and it's not merely because people are more "educated". "It's the economy, stupid."

    The post-Mao CCP state relies on concertive control and diffuse authoritarianism coupled with bread and circuses to maintain stability above a certain threshold. Obviously China has some capacity to go full totalitarian given its massive state organs, but this would be a last resort and therefore the real test of the Chinese model. Throne of bayonets and all that. In a global market capitalist society, China collapses last, after it loses control of its supply chains as the world system disintegrates. Rather than a traditional Cold War, you should be thinking in terms of a new world order that can subvert and obviate Chinese mercantilist aspirations and preserve our civilization in the long term.
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    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Not sure what your focus on the treasury is, the Chinese state exists on its centrifugal force of action, which isn't reliant on mere balance sheets, just like budget deficits will never bring down the United States. It's the social conditions that matter, and those aren't favorable anywhere, let alone undergirding a fantasy of Cold War. Birth rates in the US are and have also steeply declined, and it's not merely because people are more "educated". "It's the economy, stupid."

    The post-Mao CCP state relies on concertive control and diffuse authoritarianism coupled with bread and circuses to maintain stability above a certain threshold. Obviously China has some capacity to go full totalitarian given its massive state organs, but this would be a last resort and therefore the real test of the Chinese model. Throne of bayonets and all that. In a global market capitalist society, China collapses last, after it loses control of its supply chains as the world system disintegrates. Rather than a traditional Cold War, you should be thinking in terms of a new world order that can subvert and obviate Chinese mercantilist aspirations and preserve our civilization in the long term.
    Well if you want to talk about social conditions, China's debt has increased rapidly to levels on par with the US (as % of gdp) which is just a balance sheet as you say however:
    * China's GDP per capita is only 8,800ish which is below Russia. The average wealth per individual is just not at Western standards despite Western levels of debt.
    * China's birth rates are below that of the United States (1.6 vs 1.8). My understanding is that by 2029 China's population will start to decline (see point below why I think US pop won't decline). By mid century, US is projected to have 20% of it's population 65+ years, while China will be at 25%. This is assuming that those numbers don't change dramatically (don't count on that).
    * Despite the steady 6-7% growth for the past decade, China's economic growth will eventually cool off and attitudes in Chinese markets will shift accordingly. Likely before the big demographic transition hits. I don't think this is a particularly outrageous prediction.
    * US policy towards immigration (ignoring Trump), is much more accepting and encouraged than China. I do not anticipate social conditions to change in China to point in which China becomes a more multicultural country. If Japanese society has yet to yield to corporate demands for outside labor (despite declining in total population for the past few years), I doubt China's society will either.

    My thinking is in terms of policy and demographics. Debt is a metric by which the performance of government policy can be measured. The amount of debt may not matter so much, but the rate at which the debt increases and anticipation towards management of future debt does. But sure, it is just one metric among many. As long as US maintains domestic policies that keep the population stable, and relatively young we will maintain our competitiveness.

    Honestly, I think as long as the United States can keep itself composed and dedicated as the liberal democracy we wish for it to be, we can wait for the cumulative effect of bad Chinese domestic policy to catch up.

    Hasn't China already gone full totalitarian on the Tibetans and Uyghurs?
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  13. #283

    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Well if you want to talk about social conditions, China's debt has increased rapidly to levels on par with the US (as % of gdp) which is just a balance sheet as you say however:
    * China's GDP per capita is only 8,800ish which is below Russia. The average wealth per individual is just not at Western standards despite Western levels of debt.
    * China's birth rates are below that of the United States (1.6 vs 1.8). My understanding is that by 2029 China's population will start to decline (see point below why I think US pop won't decline). By mid century, US is projected to have 20% of it's population 65+ years, while China will be at 25%. This is assuming that those numbers don't change dramatically (don't count on that).
    * Despite the steady 6-7% growth for the past decade, China's economic growth will eventually cool off and attitudes in Chinese markets will shift accordingly. Likely before the big demographic transition hits. I don't think this is a particularly outrageous prediction.
    * US policy towards immigration (ignoring Trump), is much more accepting and encouraged than China. I do not anticipate social conditions to change in China to point in which China becomes a more multicultural country. If Japanese society has yet to yield to corporate demands for outside labor (despite declining in total population for the past few years), I doubt China's society will either.

    My thinking is in terms of policy and demographics. Debt is a metric by which the performance of government policy can be measured. The amount of debt may not matter so much, but the rate at which the debt increases and anticipation towards management of future debt does. But sure, it is just one metric among many. As long as US maintains domestic policies that keep the population stable, and relatively young we will maintain our competitiveness.

    Honestly, I think as long as the United States can keep itself composed and dedicated as the liberal democracy we wish for it to be, we can wait for the cumulative effect of bad Chinese domestic policy to catch up.

    Hasn't China already gone full totalitarian on the Tibetans and Uyghurs?
    Premise: Population growth really doesn't matter, because the current growth paradigm - where everyone is a worker and consumer - is proving unsustainable and must shift into a subsistence paradigm. If we don't collectively accomplish this as a species, we will fall collectively as a species, and power politics become deprecated (or take a new form with new actors on a lower level). An aging population therefore matters not in terms of lost capacity, but increasing pressure on the livelihoods and expectations of average citizens, one of the many overdetermining factors among those like lack of responsive government; work stress; access to living space, medical care, education, amenities; hyperreal mass media expectations; lack of metaphysical grounding. These factors are crushing us throughout the world, right? This (increasingly less) latent desperation is for example what's behind events like the ongoing - ongoing! - Yellow Jacket movement in France.

    China has been building a tightly-bound society in a way the United States has not. Without steady commerce binding us as Americans together, the country starts to unravel, a process we can see adumbrated throughout the developed world. (The failure of African and Arab national states to even get off the ground was always the writing on the wall for this model, and should never have been The United States has no coercive totalitarian backstop to endure an apocalypse, whereas China does - to a degree. Because they've been through it, and not just once. But all I'm describing is a difference in timescale, a difference of years. A CCP attempt to occupy Han China the way Han China occupies Tibet and Xinjiang, in the context of collapsed global markets and institutions, would probably look like Khmer Rouge Cambodia before long. Social credit is a much more clever and insidious mechanism, but it does require baseline stability, which it can't engender in itself. The CCP has made sacrifices over the years after all, to marketize its economy. When we're talking introducing a totalitarian economy, we're talking a dehybridization of the economy, the biggest in the world once you remember that electronic assets are not tangible but people and things are. Even assuming they have contingencies, despite and perhaps because of better technology and infrastructure the Chinese (and other) governments today arguably have less capacity to simultaneously mobilize, suppress, and sustain their people before disappearing into unmodern cascades of raw violence and warlord anarchism. To be clear, I'm saying China has developed mechanisms to endure such challenges more effectively in the short term, but of shorter duration than was generally possible a century ago. Analogously, how long could the UK or Germany sustain a WW1-tier total mobilization economy today? A century ago the most powerful states in the world could sustain a little over 4 years before reaching the brink.

    (Note that I bring up those wars because they involved total mobilization of the economy, not because I'm specifically relating the above to a war scenario between the US and China. What I'm talking about has nothing to do with war.)


    Fun fact: In 1978 the Chinese government owned almost 70% of all national wealth. Today it's around 30%.
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  14. #284
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Delightful as this is, can we make it relevant to the EU's future?
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

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    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Does it have one, the EU overhead is going to be in shambles, Europese as a continent Will be Just fine

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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Delightful as this is, can we make it relevant to the EU's future?
    Those charts, the study, or the data? If the methodology is fundamentally dodgy, then how is it irrelevant? This is the fundamental basis of Brexit. Start with false assumptions to build a false foundation. Then build on those false assumptions and false foundations with yet more lies and deception.

    Have you listened to Mr Trucker and read the Commons report yet? I've given your stuff a go. You've not reciprocated. Unlike your study, which uses football analytics methodology in a way not meant for use (football scouts around the world would shudder at your argument), Mr Trucker's account is an actual expert source in their specialist field, and is recognised by the government as such.

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    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    nice segway.

    but as you know:
    1. I was referring to chinese/american hegemony
    2. You have yet to demonstrate that the methodology of the HJS paper is problematic. That you assert it to be so is inadequate.
    3. Re Brexit: you could make the same claim about anything in politics, and it would still be equally irrelevant to the conduct of politics, i.e. enacting ideas
    4. I'm delighted the gov't has responded to the concerns of Mr Trucker, as I indicated they should and would. As you well know, I thought I had nothing particular to learn on regulatory borders from ten minutes of youtube that I had not already gleaned from 450 pages of flexcit.

    this is now just regurgitating bile on your part.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 01-11-2019 at 09:00.
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  18. #288
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Is https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YhIrgcaaXS8 is this actualy true? Here we had Merkel's little children stab and cut throats but no beheadings. Because Sweden is Sweden everything that doesn't suit their disposia must be silenced, 1984+, but did this really happen
    Last edited by Fragony; 01-11-2019 at 15:01.

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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    nice segway.

    but as you know:
    1. I was referring to chinese/american hegemony
    2. You have yet to demonstrate that the methodology of the HJS paper is problematic. That you assert it to be so is inadequate.
    3. Re Brexit: you could make the same claim about anything in politics, and it would still be equally irrelevant to the conduct of politics, i.e. enacting ideas
    4. I'm delighted the gov't has responded to the concerns of Mr Trucker, as I indicated they should and would. As you well know, I thought I had nothing particular to learn on regulatory borders from ten minutes of youtube that I had not already gleaned from 450 pages of flexcit.

    this is now just regurgitating bile on your part.
    So you urge me to read the document you've linked to, but you refuse to reciprocate and listen to the testimony I linked to. Even though the latter is recognised to be a significant expert opinion in their specialist field, while I've managed to find flaws in the former even within a brief browse. Typical of Brexit. Do as I say, not as I do.

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  20. #290
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Explosion in Paris, unknown who did it. No fatalities mentioned so far.

    Edit, probably a stupid accident, gasleak
    Last edited by Fragony; 01-12-2019 at 10:05.

  21. #291
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Nice, one of the childless mutti's little children stab a pregnant woman, unborn child dead. So welcome wir schaffen das. When is Merkel going to be tarred and feathered

  22. #292
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Nice, one of the childless mutti's little children stab a pregnant woman, unborn child dead. So welcome wir schaffen das. When is Merkel going to be tarred and feathered
    Certainly not before you provide any sources for the things you're talking about.


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  23. #293
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    Certainly not before you provide any sources for the things you're talking about.
    Is certain An Afghanistan Guy did it, woman was Polish. You can easily look it up yourself
    Last edited by Fragony; 01-14-2019 at 09:07.

  24. #294
    Mr Self Important Forum Administrator Beskar's Avatar
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    Found it on Breitbart. For some reason, the source doesn't surprise me.
    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/201...regnant-woman/

    A pregnant Polish woman suffered life-threatening injuries and lost her unborn baby in a knife attack by an Afghan migrant at a hospital in Germany.
    Police said an argument broke out at St. Marienwörth Hospital in Bad Kreuznach, west Germany, at around 6 p.m. on Friday, after which the 25-year-old victim was stabbed several times in the stomach.

    The woman’s condition stabilised following emergency surgery but her baby died a short time after the operation, according to local media, which reported that the perpetrator surrendered himself to police shortly after the attack, after initially having fled the hospital.

    On Saturday the suspect, a 25-year-old Afghan, was charged with murder, aggravated assault, and the unlawful termination of a pregnancy. He will remain in custody while police and the local public prosecutor’s office investigate the circumstances of the attack.

    With the victim not yet in a condition to speak to investigators, and the suspect having so far refused to comment on the assault, police have said the motive remains unclear.

    Speaking out after the attack, Alternative for Germany (AfD) MP Petr Bystron remarked that “illegal immigration is not mercy — it is murder”, noting that Germany has suffered rising crime rates since Chancellor Angela Merkel opened the country’s border to well over a million migrants in 2015.

    Linking German problems with illegal immigration to the ones highlighted by President Donald Trump in North America, the populist MP told U.S. news outlet Gateway Pundit: “The simple fact is: if you are willing to break a country’s laws to get in, you are probably willing to break them again once you are in – with horrible, tragic consequences for the most vulnerable members of society.”

    Globalist international media outlets, which overwhelmingly stood in praise of Mrs Merkel as she invited people from the Global South to live off taxpayers in her homeland, have attempted to downplay reports that Germany has seen an uptick in violence since receiving an unprecedented influx of migrants, claiming that crime on the whole has gone down since 2015.

    But a BBC ‘fact check’ last year, which took issue with an AfD MP’s claim that there were more than 447 killings by illegal immigrants in Germany in 2017, had to admit that the migrant demographic was heavily overrepresented amongst perpetrators of the most serious crimes.

    Despite people classified as “asylum applicants or civil war refugees or illegal immigrants” making up just 2 per cent of Germany’s population as a whole, this group comprised 8.5 percent of all criminal suspects in 2017, including 10.4 percent of murder suspects and 11.9 percent of sexual offence suspects, the British public broadcaster conceded.
    From the story, there are a few things which stood out:
    - The perpetrator went to the Hospital with the victim.
    - The perpetrator later turned themselves in to the police, after initially fleeing.

    First thing this suggests is that the story is not "wild afghan refugee stabs pregnant woman just because he is an evil immigrant". There is the suggestion that the perpetrator knew the victim, since apparently they went to the hospital with her. The individual also turned himself into the police, if they are evil immigrant, wouldn't they try to flee/not be caught?

    Perhaps this is a very tragic tale where the unborn child is the perpetrator's (or not) ? Perhaps there was an argument and something went horribly wrong? Clearly the perpetrator had some issues, maybe a twisted form of honour killing? Either way, this is not as simple as implied "immigrants are evil and stab pregnant women for fun".
    Last edited by Beskar; 01-15-2019 at 23:27.
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  25. #295
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Sounds like there is more to it and should have shut up

  26. #296
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Is certain An Afghanistan Guy did it, woman was Polish. You can easily look it up yourself
    If you weant me to accept your point, it's a terrible idea to try and make me work for it...
    Besides, I may not even challenge your point, but want to read the whole story.

    I did find it based on the information provided by Beskar. Apparently the two were a couple and he specifically came to visit her in that hospital. Doesn't sound like random violence, but a relationship conflict. Though that is obviously not a way to solve those. He also surrendered to police by himself shortly afterwards.

    It sounds a lot like he freaked out after they talked, maybe she told him the baby is from someone else because she cheated on him, or something like that. Don't get me wrong, what he did is terrible and he should be punished. It just doesn't look like the "random islamist terrorist murderer from abroad"-story that many almost like to see because it fits their xenophobic agenda.

    edit: Sorry for repeating some things Beskar already said, I looked for the source right away and didn't see the conclusions below.
    Last edited by Husar; 01-14-2019 at 23:07.


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  27. #297
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    You are right this was nog random violence. He should be sent away though

  28. #298
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    Here's an example of football radars used in analysis. It can easily show when players are an order of magnitude greater or lesser than another. But where there isn't such a great difference, all it does is show that players are of different styles, assuming they play in roughly the same area. And as one of the players' analyses shows, it also depends on the context, in this case the style of the team they're playing in (if the loaning team hasn't been picking the right team for their loanee to go to). And even after all that, it's just a precursor to the final, decisive judgement, which is made by an expert in the field, ie. a football scout. That report that Furunculus links to as an illustration of his beliefs misses all this.

  29. #299
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Future of the European Union

    whining and bile, still! don't you ever get bored of living on repeat?
    Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar

  30. #300
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    whining and bile, still! don't you ever get bored of living on repeat?
    I was willing to change my position. From not reading the report you posted, I read it and commented on it. Are you going to reciprocate and listen to Mr Trucker's testimony, which is something the government considered worthwhile enough to base policy on? Or are you only up for giving demands, without ever doing anything in return?

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