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Thread: Predictions Thread

  1. #1

    Default Predictions Thread

    Please pin this thread
    @Beskar
    @Hooahguy

    We make all sorts of predictions about world affairs and other things in our discussions here, but I have a hard time keeping track of them for future reflection.

    The most recent significant prediction in the Backroom was Pannonian's alarum on UK border control and industrial logistics following Brexit March 2019. I won't remember this in a year! So, for all of us who want a simple way to manage these reexaminations...


    Rules


    1. Must be a concrete prediction about an event or state of affairs, to be realized at a certain date or within a bounded period
    2. If prompted from discussion within a thread, include a link to that thread or relevant post
    3. If listing a prediction made by someone other than yourself, provide quotes and proper attribution.
    4. Ought to follow a concise and informative format

    For example:

    Origin: Pannonian
    Time Scale: After March 2019; acute
    Prediction: Border control and customs infrastructure at UK ports of entry, especially Dover, is inadequate to process supply and logistics chains at current levels under a stricter regime, leading to trade and economic disruptions regardless of Brexit negotiation outcomes

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    The supply chain and the dictum of time equals money is the killer. KFC had supply chain problems (they had products and demand, but they couldn't get their products to the relevant outlets to meet demand) for 2-3 weeks, and shed a large chunk of their value as a result. Now that's one company in a functioning economy, with other businesses able to take up the slack. Post-Brexit, the supply chain bottleneck does not affect just one company, but all companies that work with multiple components some of which originate from outside the UK. The estimate, given similar experiences elsewhere and the volume of traffic Dover processes, is 30+ mile queues, where Dover is currently equipped for frictionless trade. Consultations are due to start next year, when we're due to formally leave the EU. Consultations for that scale of project normally last years before they settle on what to build. Then there's the small matter of building; the rebuilding of Tottenham Court Road, a single tube station, took the best part of a decade to complete. And remember that this isn't a single business being affected by the bottleneck which can be re-routed, but businesses across the board and their subsidiaries. And this isn't just a possible disaster scenario; the organisation of freight transporters, the people who work the supply chain, have said that we've already passed the point where we can prepare for it. Complete chaos and zero preparedness isn't a possibility, it's an inevitability come March next year.

    GB says that things would be better if we had a PM who was prepared to properly Leave, rather than May who was supposedly a Remainer. No we wouldn't. The chaos doesn't come from not being willing to Leave. The chaos comes from cutting ties. We still wouldn't have the infrastructure to cope with cutting ties, no matter how willing the government may be. And we still won't have the economy to cope with this lack of infrastructure post-Brexit. All of this was concrete, or perhaps ironically, non-existent in concrete, before the vote, except that Leave labelled it as Project Fear. Project Fear that even Leave's leaders now accept is Actual Reality. Putting an X on a ballot doesn't change this reality.

    Furunculus has mentioned an acceptable economy before. At what point does it become unacceptable?
    Vitiate Man.

  2. #2
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    I recommend that mods remove the thread on the grounds that I and maybe other members of this forum do not wish to be reminded of our own stupidity.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.
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  3. #3
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Why don't you use bookmarks or something similarly user-end oriented? Rather than impose yourself on the forum via a sticky.

  4. #4

    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Why don't you use bookmarks or something similarly user-end oriented? Rather than impose yourself on the forum via a sticky.
    Good point. I got carried away and presumed an enthusiastic adoption by Orgahs. Up to y'all.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 06-07-2018 at 00:36.
    Vitiate Man.

  5. #5
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Good point. I got carried away and presumed an enthusiastic adoption by Orgahs. Up to y'all.
    If you look at the list of stickies, in particular the compilation threads, the last one (News of the Weird) came about because people were posting lots of threads on the same theme. With the first poster in that thread, Lemur, responsible for posting most of these weird news threads. You're asking the mods to sticky a thread to troll posters like me.

    FWIW, the above prediction is a summary of what the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) reckons will happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit (IIRC they said Dover's inadequacy will be seen within a week), with the Highways Agency confirming that the infrastructure will not be built in time to cope and thus backing up what DExEU says, and the Freight Transport Association, the guys who carry the imports and exports to and from Dover, releasing a statement amounting to the same. They're not thinktanks, political theorists or internet posters; they're government departments and organisations of people doing the relevant job.

  6. #6

    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    If you look at the list of stickies, in particular the compilation threads, the last one (News of the Weird) came about because people were posting lots of threads on the same theme. With the first poster in that thread, Lemur, responsible for posting most of these weird news threads. You're asking the mods to sticky a thread to troll posters like me.

    FWIW, the above prediction is a summary of what the Department for Exiting the EU (DExEU) reckons will happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit (IIRC they said Dover's inadequacy will be seen within a week), with the Highways Agency confirming that the infrastructure will not be built in time to cope and thus backing up what DExEU says, and the Freight Transport Association, the guys who carry the imports and exports to and from Dover, releasing a statement amounting to the same. They're not thinktanks, political theorists or internet posters; they're government departments and organisations of people doing the relevant job.
    Yes, but I would like to assure you that I'm not mocking or trolling you, I posted this out of a genuine concern for the substance of the prediction and respect for its validity.
    Vitiate Man.

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  7. #7
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    I predict a few miserable days for me, going to detox in a few hours

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  8. #8
    Apr 04-Nov 11 Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    I say pin it, for all 8 of us.
    “I was not designed to be forced. I will breathe after my own fashion. Let us see who is the strongest.” -Thoreau

    Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers.

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  9. #9
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    I predict a few miserable days for me, going to detox in a few hours
    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    I say pin it, for all 8 of us.
    Wrong thread. Try drunkard's tavern.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  10. #10
    Ja mata, TosaInu Moderator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Pin it!
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

    Proud

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    10 years+ at the Org

  11. #11
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    I predict that I am not making any predictions.


    "Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu

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  12. #12
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    Wrong thread. Try drunkard's tavern.
    Make that the cocaine-tavern, here for a night it is not all that bad really
    Last edited by Fragony; 06-08-2018 at 11:01.

  13. #13

    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Pin it!
    Yea, and it shall stand as a monument to hubris, wishful thinking, vanity and pride.

    I predict people will consult it for direction in a world gone wrong
    Ja-mata TosaInu

  14. #14
    Apr 04-Nov 11 Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Make that the cocaine-tavern, here for a night it is not all that bad really
    Who is taking care of the cats?
    “I was not designed to be forced. I will breathe after my own fashion. Let us see who is the strongest.” -Thoreau

    Sometimes chicken, sometimes feathers.


  15. #15
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Who is taking care of the cats?
    Friends. It ain so bad, bonus was the visit of two beauty&brains babes, yes vanity is also a sin
    Last edited by Fragony; 06-09-2018 at 06:41.

  16. #16
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Well home sweet home, it wasn that bad, a friendly place really. It isn't like prison where everybody flocks to their own kind, everybody supports eachother, unlike prison a rather positive experience really

  17. #17
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Fragony View Post
    Well home sweet home, it wasn that bad, a friendly place really. It isn't like prison where everybody flocks to their own kind, everybody supports eachother, unlike prison a rather positive experience really
    So what's your prediction anyway (since it is the prediction thread)?
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  18. #18

    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    So what's your prediction anyway (since it is the prediction thread)?
    Maybe we should change it to "Backroom Random Thoughts Thread". Those are always popular.
    Vitiate Man.

  19. #19
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Maybe we should change it to "Backroom Random Thoughts Thread". Those are always popular.
    Then I suggest "Random Predictions Thread" for its title.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  20. #20
    master of the pwniverse Member Fragony's Avatar
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    Default Re: Predictions Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    So what's your prediction anyway (since it is the prediction thread)?
    Uncharted territory, got a pretty busy social life

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