Turkish Election Results and Implication

[Montmorency]

Unless Russia somehow becomes a failed state, obviously not. It's half the size of Russia, has the 17th largest economy in the World (Russia 12th) no native defence industry to speak of and no prospects for economic development - where Russia's education system is still quite good, Turkey's is in a mess with over 10% of the population now training to be clerics and the second worst rating in the OECD.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Russia is shrinking (in population). Turkey is growing. Russia has minimal opportunities for territorial, economic, or political growth in its periphery. It is hemmed in by seas, the Central Asian steppe, China, and the EU/NATO. Turkey holds critical geography, and leverage over Europe. It is bordered by soft and restive Middle Eastern countries. Its borderlands, especially the Kurdish ones, are a constant thorn in its side tempting more direct management. Unlike most countries in the area, with the notable exception of Iran, Turkey has long experience with being a centralized national state. As we know, most of its neighbors are more brittle.

Turkey is increasingly poised to go its own way in the world, responsive neither to Russia nor the West. It's fair to ask how much international and American opprobrium it could stand to draw, but on the other side of the coin America, Europe, and Russia would prefer not to lose access to Turkey. Depending on what happens in Syria-Iraq, or how the Gulf societies handle reform, opportunities for Turkish power could arise in the shape of some type of aggression. Depends on what the rest of the world looks like. Depends on the state of conflicts in international Muslim society in the future.



I'm not going so far as to say that Turkey is in a position to attempt to recreate the Caliphate, or the Ottoman Empire, but relatively speaking it's not crazy to speculate whether it may become more of a foreign policy hazard than Russia. Russia and its challenge to the world order is predictable and well-defined in a way that sudden fundamental disruptions in the Middle East could overshadow. Russia bringing outright annexation and irredentism back to the table, just like with its dabbling in information warfare, could set the stage for worse things.