Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post

And you think this shows Russia has the ability to just invade Kazakhstan or something? Why would they? Russia has CSTO, pipelines, millions of guest workers, and any other number of political and economic levers to pull to manage these countries, which will never be pro-American to the exclusion of Russia; they have no special connection to Europe or America, but they do to Russia. If China came to dominate Central Asia, it would be even more foolhardy to imagine that Russia would think of resolving the problem through military means. If all the Central Asian Muslims suddenly became anti-Russian terrorists, all the more so.
All of this was said about Ukraine too, yet Russia felt its interests threatend and invaded. In my view, by supporting new Ukrainian regime and helping Ukraine out it could have gained a strategical victory and kept its influence over Ukraine. By rash steps in managed to estrange a formerly friendly people.

Now if Belorus or Kazakhstan were to have a succession crisis and the candiadate(s) for succession declared their course towards Europe or China (for Kazakhstan) it would immediately raise Russia's hackles. And Russia will always have the card of protecting Russian speakers up its sleeve. But perhaps the Ukraine debacle has taught Russia something and it would act by wiser and subtler ways.