EDIT: Let me emphasize separately a hypothesis already stated, that open borders makes it easy for people to come
and go, to work or study for a season or a few years and depart, whereas restrictive regimes (e.g. since Clinton) incentivize entire families to settle permanently. What, quintupling the numbers of permanent unauthorized residents in a generation (again, since Clinton-era) seems like good evidence.
(And collocate these two permanently in your mind:
1996 immigration reform, NAFTA. Former incentivizes permanent residency, latter alters the economic balance to penalize staying in Mexico's labor market and reward being in the US labor market. Double whammy)
In the first place, we should note that not
that many people, relatively speaking, are interested in abandoning their homes for a chance at permanent residence in the US, even if the conditions will be or are perceived to be superior. Just as most people in the Rust Belt are staying put!
(But really, internal migration is the big outlet in the developing world.)
So your case would be that the new policies would encourage too high a long-term surge, or that though there wouldn't be a remarkable shift in the baseline, the baseline alone (of people who would come if they had the opportunity) is overwhelming in magnitude.
I'm not so sure this would be the case, but let's accept that it would be for now.
To that I say, fix the other policies driving problematic patterns of migration:
1. Keep our damn promises to our collaborators in the War on Terror.
2. Don't
add to (I'm not even using the word "stop") the destabilization of the Middle East.
3. Tackle gun production and the
War on Terror (
EDIT: I'm sorry, I meant to write War on Drugs) to cripple the cartels' revenue stream and allow Latin America a chance to get back on its feet.
4. Invest heavily in climate change mitigation and preparedness on transnational scale; the world hasn't seen anything yet.
5. Disincentivize employers from importing skilled labor for the purpose of holding down payroll expenses.
6. Help other countries not be places people are eager to leave.
7. Global capitalism demands constant competition and mobile low-cost labor forces. Explore a system that doesn't require people in the developing world to become economic itinerants for their survival.
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