Democrat 2020

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

In a UK context, Labour's Welfare State was the progression of social reforms first enacted by Liberals like Lloyd George and Churchill. It was Reformist Liberals who first sought to improve the lot of the less well off by establishing a baseline of living that all should be able to expect and improving infrastructure and support to meet that.

Eh... the Welfare State as enacted in a special context, there's a reason no other Anglo-phone country (except Canada) was so comprehensive.

Also, the fact that Liberals and Socialists share some goals does not make them politically compatible - and Churchill was a Unionist in any case, not a Liberal or a Conservative.

There are ways of getting around speech impediments. See Demosthenes and Churchill for two examples.

Debatable - Churchill had a speech impediment his entire life, as did George VI.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I think its ok to primary someone of course, I dont have an issue with that per say. As we have discussed before, may the best candidate win and all that. The issue is more about optics. I can tell you from experience that within the House Dem Caucus, she doesnt have a lot of fans, I will say that. Yes, shes great in committee and at retail politics, but I think she has a lot to learn about


So about Bidens mental state. It should be well known now that he has a stutter. If you havent read this very touching piece on it in the Atlantic, you should. I have a stutter too. Ive stuttered ever since I was young, and thankfully when I got older the severity lessened. Sometimes it still comes out when I've very stressed, anxious, or even just tired. Last week a guy I know from my National Stuttering Association chapter meeting made a long thread detailing Biden's stutter and how it accounts for many of his gaffes. Its a really informative read that I encourage everyone to at least skim through.

While Biden was not my first choice, I do feel a certain level of fidelity with him due to our stutter. I have a tendency to avoid tricky words which ends up not really making sense and even slurring words sometimes because I'm trying to avoid a block. I even sometimes ramble as I try to get a point across. I'm trying to mentally put it all together in a coherent sentence while at the time time mentally figuring out how to not stutter. Its exhausting to do. I went to speech therapy multiple times over the past couple decades, and even doing all those tricks they teach you, its still exhausting. The only way to truly never stutter is to slow my speech down. But in normal conversation, thats really hard to do and people think that something is wrong with me in the head. Sometimes it feels like talking normally and stuttering is easier than trying to avoid it. Some days are great days, some are not. PFH might remember how I did when I met up with him in London a few years back but I think I did a good job lol.

I wish Biden was more open about his stutter. And honestly I feel terrible for him. My stuttering absolutely gets worse in times of stress, anxiety, and exhaustion so I cant imagine what hes going through now. It really ticks me off when people think he has dementia or something like that. I think Biden's stutter gets worse during debates and big campaign speeches but he seems to do fine otherwise. Just look at his town hall performance before the SC primary. I think he sounds great and you can tell he is more relaxed there. I also suspect its a reason why he wants to sit down for the next debate. I know that I do better when sitting down as I feel more relaxed and I have an easier time working through my stutter. Just my two cents.

Can confirm when I met Hooah he had a barely noticeable stutter, but then I have a slight stutter myself (that's only really noticeable when I'm around other stutterers) so it's not something I'm going to casually notice unless you point it out or it's quite severe. In my case I'm fortunate that the South-England dialect I speak is very rhythmic, regular, and clipped with significant pauses and definitive ends to sentences - so mostly I don't have to ever talk fast.

[Hooahguy]

There are ways of getting around speech impediments. See Demosthenes and Churchill for two examples.

With all due respect, everyone's stutter manifests differently in some way. What works for one may not work for another. Also Churchill didnt really stutter, he had more of a lisp. Interestingly enough though, speaking in a cadence is one of the techniques taught in speech therapy to avoid stuttering. Its very effective, but hard to do in casual conversation. Plus it can sound a bit odd as it makes you sound as if you are reading the news.

[Montmorency]

So about Bidens mental state. It should be well known now that he has a stutter. If you havent read this very touching piece on it in the Atlantic, you should. I have a stutter too. Ive stuttered ever since I was young, and thankfully when I got older the severity lessened. Sometimes it still comes out when I've very stressed, anxious, or even just tired. Last week a guy I know from my National Stuttering Association chapter meeting made a long thread detailing Biden's stutter and how it accounts for many of his gaffes. Its a really informative read that I encourage everyone to at least skim through.

Thanks for the perspective. But what I'm referring to is my impression that the Biden of 2019 sounded and acted distinctly different from the Biden of 2008-2016, and that subsequent to his recent successes he's regained some of his pep and clarity. I haven't extensively observed Biden's speech over years, but if my observations are valid then the explanation can't be reduced to a constant stutter.

I mean come on, 2 months ago he did not sound like this. (Coronavirus plan)


[Interesting that some avoidance behaviors in stuttering overlap with aphasic presentation, which may have been part of what I was picking up]

[Hooahguy]

As I said, stress and exhaustion plays a big part in how one deals with a stutter. But not only that, one's emotional state plays a part too. So if you combine everything it turns into Biden's speech patterns in 2019. He was constantly campaigning, plus the stress of the debates, and all that takes a toll. Case in point: I did those model diplomacy teams in university. I was actually pretty good, won some awards and all, but my god it was incredibly taxing, even for someone in his early 20's. Having to quickly think of what you are going to say and then say it as fluently as you can within 60 seconds is incredibly difficult even for someone without a stutter. I would leave competitions and conferences absolutely exhausted trying to make it all work. It was made worse at one conference when an ex-girlfriend broke up with me the morning of the first day of debate. I was an emotional wreck, and I stuttered terribly throughout that day. I was able to salvage my performance on the subsequent days as I came to emotional grips with what happened and walked away with an award, but those were some of the hardest moments to deal with as I was dealing with a perfect storm of being incredibly stressed as well as in a rough emotional state.

[Montmorency]

Absolutely, it's been shown in all sorts of animals that achieving or losing valued conditions (especially in social context) produces different endocrinological responses. Maybe he just feels better now that he has momentum.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Absolutely, it's been shown in all sorts of animals that achieving or losing valued conditions (especially in social context) produces different endocrinological responses. Maybe he just feels better now that he has momentum.

Of course he does. Before South Carolina he was slogging uphill. After SC, he's remembering what it was like to be THE key figure in a race that matters. Not doubt that snapped him out of the funk I think he has been in since the death of his son. His heart wasn't fully in it before, but now he sees himself as needed to make a difference. What more empowering mood lift could you get aside from love?

[Hooahguy]

Speaking of rebounding after SC, I found this on Reddit and it was too good not to share:

[Greyblades]

I do not get where you think this is a slam dunk for Trump. He won in the minority last time, with the electoral college favoring him because of WHERE he accrued votes. Margins were razor thin in 3 or 4 states then, despite facing Hilary, and Trump pretty well must repeat wins in most of them to be re-elected. Last election, Af-Am votes dropped off by 10% plus from 2012, yet Biden seems to be able to mobilize same. Biden's appeal among the working class was better than Sanders OR Clinton from the last go around. While he is not a complete "darling" to labor, they are not recoiling from him as they did from Hilary.

Could Trump repeat his 2016 path to success? Yes. Is it a done deal? By no means.

The Kavanaugh hearings, Muller investigation, Impeachment proceedings; the democrats have layed the ground for this election with nothing but wasteful failures that at best played into the image of a party of sore losers and at worst reinforced the image of a party all to eager to indulge in ratfucking, if you will excuse the nixonian term.

On this so prepared ground they are emerging from the primaries with a presumptive candidate who back in his prime was proveably corrupt and now is a dementia riddled wreck. To call it a stutter is dubious; he's showing forgetfulness, incoherance and agitation (edit: better video quality). Even if we believe this is supposed to be stress related; he's applying for the presidency, the most stressful job in existance and he hasnt even gotten to trump yet. It can only get worse for him.

To seal the deal he also has youtube compilations full of him being creepy around little girls in front of live cameras.

The democrats are literally putting forward an actual worse example of what for four years they have been trying to convince everyone trump is!



Now consider that the trump you are dealing with isnt a candidate anymore but an incumbant with all the advantages that entails. Then consider that the democrats have pretty much nothing they havent allready thrown at trump while republicans havent really begun thier attacks on biden yet.

I dont understand how you could think this isnt setting up to be a slam dunk for trump.

[Hooahguy]

Look at you trying to armchair doctor and buying into conspiracy theories.

[Greyblades]

Uh huh, I think after the fiasco they made of russiagate and kavanaugh's supposed rape gang the ship has truly sailed on the democrat's side of the isle being able to denegrate conspiracy theories.

Please, If it makes you feel better keep thinking the man who forgets which state he's in is merely suffering from stress and a stutter go right ahead, but as I said in my edit: stress is going to be his existance from here to the end of any potential presidency.

[Hooahguy]

Lol ok.

[Greyblades]

Problem of the edit button; never know if the guy who responded between post and edit ever sees any addition or revision.

[Hooahguy]

Because you have never forgotten anything ever. Its like you jotted down a list of Fox News top 10 conspiracies and bought them hook, line and sinker.

[Greyblades]

Because you have never forgotten anything ever.

As often as Biden? No, then again I'm not 77 years old.

Dont think I often contradict myself as frequently to the degree of; " guess what? you're not allowed to own any weapons, I'm not taking your gun away at all, you need a hundred rounds[...]Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, We'll take your ar-14s away".

Dont think I have considered "dont try me pal, do you want to go outside?" was a good response to being called out on a lie since I was like 8 either.

You know its my fault, the example I used had poor audio and was hard to make out. I should have looked harder and found a version with better quality and subtitles: https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/sta...03481314598918

[Hooahguy]

In more serious news, Biden is reportedly going to adopt Warren's bankruptcy plan. Perhaps an endorsement from Warren is on the horizon? Either way, its good news. It definitely gives me hope that Biden would be willing to seriously consider progressive legislative initiatives.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The Kavanaugh hearings, Muller investigation, Impeachment proceedings; the democrats have layed the ground for this election with nothing but wasteful failures that at best played into the image of a party of sore losers and at worst reinforced the image of a party all to eager to indulge in ratfucking, if you will excuse the nixonian term.

On this so prepared ground they are emerging from the primaries with a presumptive candidate who back in his prime was proveably corrupt and now is a dementia riddled wreck. To call it a stutter is dubious; he's showing forgetfulness, incoherance and agitation (edit: better video quality). Even if we believe this is supposed to be stress related; he's applying for the presidency, the most stressful job in existance and he hasnt even gotten to trump yet. It can only get worse for him.

To seal the deal he also has youtube compilations full of him being creepy around little girls in front of live cameras.

The democrats are literally putting forward an actual worse example of what for four years they have been trying to convince everyone trump is!



Now consider that the trump you are dealing with isnt a candidate anymore but an incumbant with all the advantages that entails. Then consider that the democrats have pretty much nothing they havent allready thrown at trump while republicans havent really begun thier attacks on biden yet.

I dont understand how you could think this isnt setting up to be a slam dunk for trump.

You are, to some extent at least, correct about the Dem's efforts. They have reacted to Trump's behavior and attitude in much the way a bull is supposed to react to the cape of a matador. They have spent an inordinate amount of time trying to throw things at Trump to undercut his power, force him out of office, and turn public opinion against him. A lot of it was distorted and some of it may well have been fabricated. Trump goads opponents into the kind of mud-slinging fight he is comfortable with, and truly believes that an angry/upset opponent is the one he can best negotiate with/take advantage of. The Dems have been playing that game.

If they had NOT been over-reacting to his goading efforts on Twitter and elsewhere, I would venture to guess that we would not be talking about how close this election is, but discussing how much is going to change in the first 100 days of a new administration.

Please do not mistake me as thinking either of the parties is a political equivalent to Sir Galahad. I am the fellow who had this quotation in his sig for many months:

“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule—and both commonly succeed, and are right.” H.L. Mencken, Minority Report [1956]


Though you could also make the argument that we have met the standards laid out in another Mencken [1926?] quotation:

"As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

[Montmorency]

You are, to some extent at least, correct about the Dem's efforts. They have reacted to Trump's behavior and attitude in much the way a bull is supposed to react to the cape of a matador. They have spent an inordinate amount of time trying to throw things at Trump to undercut his power, force him out of office, and turn public opinion against him. A lot of it was distorted and some of it may well have been fabricated. Trump goads opponents into the kind of mud-slinging fight he is comfortable with, and truly believes that an angry/upset opponent is the one he can best negotiate with/take advantage of. The Dems have been playing that game.

If they had NOT been over-reacting to his goading efforts on Twitter and elsewhere, I would venture to guess that we would not be talking about how close this election is, but discussing how much is going to change in the first 100 days of a new administration.

Please do not mistake me as thinking either of the parties is a political equivalent to Sir Galahad. I am the fellow who had this quotation in his sig for many months:

“Under democracy one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule—and both commonly succeed, and are right.” H.L. Mencken, Minority Report [1956]


Though you could also make the argument that we have met the standards laid out in another Mencken [1926?] quotation:

"As democracy is perfected, the office of the president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day, the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."

The problem is that Trump is a hardcore criminal who operates on the strategy of brazening through everything. The Democrats unfortunately underreacted in investigating and relaying his abuses (not that it's their fault Trump has arrogated unlimited power to himself to deny investigations), but the public gets the picture by now.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Thank you Biden! This is what I am saying needs to happen. This a step toward being a unity candidate. Really relieved that we could see real investment in the future of the workforce in my lifetime.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...sanders-warren

[a completely inoffensive name]

Cruz publicly re-shared an AOC tweet on Coronavirus prevention.

Romney is now calling for a Yang Gang UBI during this crisis.

Senate Republicans want to go beyond the House Dems and have the government foot the whole bill.
“Paid sick leave is a good idea. We do it in my office, the federal government now does it, and many businesses do it. But if the federal government wants to require it, the federal government should pay for it.” - Lamar Alexander

Biden essentially conceded during the debate a Medicare for All plan for tackling coronavirus treatment and testing.

This might be the biggest pivot congressional Republicans have made from the president who is still downplaying the dangers and trying to juice the economy to make himself seem less incompetent.

[Montmorency]

Cruz publicly re-shared an AOC tweet on Coronavirus prevention.

Romney is now calling for a Yang Gang UBI during this crisis.

Senate Republicans want to go beyond the House Dems and have the government foot the whole bill.
“Paid sick leave is a good idea. We do it in my office, the federal government now does it, and many businesses do it. But if the federal government wants to require it, the federal government should pay for it.” - Lamar Alexander

Biden essentially conceded during the debate a Medicare for All plan for tackling coronavirus treatment and testing.

This might be the biggest pivot congressional Republicans have made from the president who is still downplaying the dangers and trying to juice the economy to make himself seem less incompetent.

Good tweet.

Pundits have been predicting Trump pivots to economic populism since before he was inaugurated. 0% of them have happened. Let's see what the Senate does rather than rushing to give credit to the best things individual senators are proposing as if they've actually be enacted.

I'll believe the theory that Pelosi is a "neoliberal shill" where Tom Cotton is a working-class comrade when I see the football in the air.

[Hooahguy]

So it looks like the Ohio primaries will be delayed, after much confusion. Its the right call I think, but everyone else is going ahead with their primaries tomorrow. I wish states would do a vote by mail system because this pandemic is only going to get worse before it gets better. What a mess. Should the polls hold up and Bernie gets soundly beaten again, I really do hope he drops out since the delegate math just doesnt go in his favor anymore and theres really no point in putting more people in harms way.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What chance Sanders may have had after the 10th is gone now. The American public has, more or less, accepted Biden as the Dem leader and are now focused on Covid-19 etc. Sanders' hard core will vote for him, but his chance to really shift public thinking has faded with the change in national focus. It is time for him to cut his deal with Biden as to policies etc. and hang up the gloves.

[Hooahguy]

It seems like his campaign was banking on the debate to change things, but it didnt. In fact it improved Biden's numbers. So after today I just dont see the point except for Bernie's ego. I don't see a single upcoming primary which would be enough to help Bernie overcome Bidens delegate lead. I think hes going to take it to the convention and try to sway the superdelegates. Why else would his campaign open up a bunch of offices in Pennsylvania if not to amass as many delegates as he can before the convention?

[Greyblades]

You are, to some extent at least, correct about the Dem's efforts. They have reacted to Trump's behavior and attitude in much the way a bull is supposed to react to the cape of a matador. They have spent an inordinate amount of time trying to throw things at Trump to undercut his power, force him out of office, and turn public opinion against him. A lot of it was distorted and some of it may well have been fabricated. Trump goads opponents into the kind of mud-slinging fight he is comfortable with, and truly believes that an angry/upset opponent is the one he can best negotiate with/take advantage of. The Dems have been playing that game.

If they had NOT been over-reacting to his goading efforts on Twitter and elsewhere, I would venture to guess that we would not be talking about how close this election is, but discussing how much is going to change in the first 100 days of a new administration.

I think that would require the current democrats to be... well not the current democrats. They're stuck seeing trump as a paper tiger, an obvious criminal that got in on a fluke and will crumble with one more good push, 3.5 years of him grinding through more opposition than any president since lincoln should have made them reevaluate but it hasnt, case in point:

The problem is that Trump is a hardcore criminal who operates on the strategy of brazening through everything. The Democrats unfortunately underreacted in investigating and relaying his abuses (not that it's their fault Trump has arrogated unlimited power to himself to deny investigations), but the public gets the picture by now.

I think this faith that the public will be on side is the main problem; it means the party doesnt have to actually change anything towards the centre and why the primary had the majority of candidates on a race to out niche interest eachother. Biden doesnt seem to be moving away from that direction, which is why I think he'll lose even if he wasnt the ever worsening non-teflon gaffmaster.

In the UK we had an example of a complacency run in 2017, it was from a previously high running party against an absolute dud and it only avoided disaster by the skin of it's teeth. I cant see how the same tactic will prevail when the proposed dud thrashed the dems 4 years ago and is still in a position of strength.

[Montmorency]

I think that would require the current democrats to be... well not the current democrats. They're stuck seeing trump as a paper tiger, an obvious criminal that got in on a fluke and will crumble with one more good push, 3.5 years of him grinding through more opposition than any president since lincoln should have made them reevaluate but it hasnt, case in point:



I think this faith that the public will be on side is the main problem; it means the party doesnt have to actually change anything towards the centre and why the primary had the majority of candidates on a race to out niche interest eachother. Biden doesnt seem to be moving away from that direction, which is why I think he'll lose even if he wasnt the ever worsening non-teflon gaffmaster.

In the UK we had an example of a complacency run in 2017, it was from a previously high running party against an absolute dud and it only avoided disaster by the skin of it's teeth. I cant see how the same tactic will prevail when the proposed dud thrashed the dems 4 years ago and is still in a position of strength.

I think the difficulty here is all your perceptions are incorrect.

[Hooahguy]

Biden has won all three primaries tonight by double digits. Apparently Bernie didn't win a single county in Florida, and only a single county in Illinois. This is over.

[Greyblades]

I think the difficulty here is all your perceptions are incorrect.

Sure, denounce my viewpoint and carry on as you were, I'm sure it'll bring a different result one of these days.

Ugh, its kasserine pass all over again.

[Montmorency]

Biden has won all three primaries tonight by double digits. Apparently Bernie didn't win a single county in Florida, and only a single county in Illinois. This is over.

Lipinski at least.

Sure, denounce my viewpoint and carry on as you were, I'm sure it'll bring a different result one of these days.

I'm not referring to the moral components of your viewpoint - which are themselves disqualifying - but your tendency to consistently evince beliefs that are demonstrably wrong, leading to unproductive accounts of events.

Ugh, its kasserine pass all over again.

Be wary of WW2 comparisons here, they may prove too much.

[Pannonian]

Sure, denounce my viewpoint and carry on as you were, I'm sure it'll bring a different result one of these days.

Ugh, its kasserine pass all over again.

What's with the Kasserine Pass comparison?