Democrat 2020

[Montmorency]

Personally Id like to see the primary between just Biden and Sanders. Using RCP polling averages, they are the only ones who can actually win in the states where it matters. I ignore national polling because only the electoral college matters so who cares if a million more people vote Dem in California.

In Wisconsin, only Biden and Sanders beat Trump. Same for Nevada. In Florida, only Biden beats Trump (with Sanders at a statistical tie). In North Carolina, Biden beats Trump and so does Sanders, but barely. And in Arizona, its the same thing, except that Sanders gets shellacked. And everyone seems to lose in Iowa. But the pattern is pretty clear: both Warren and Pete get regularly beaten by Trump in the states that are critical for winning.

To say that I am nervous about this election is an understatement. I really wish Bloomberg wasnt running, but I agree, his team is good.

Choosing a candidate on the basis of pre-nomination head-to-head polling with Trump that has always tracked name recognition and position in national polling is an exercise in recursive tautology. If you look at the 2016 polling on head-to-heads with Trump he improved his numbers in every battleground state by the end. Polling is by nature a cross-section of a time and place, a snapshot. Expect it to change over time. I am not aware of any statistical evidence in political science that would support choosing Biden because of favorable head-to-heads that precede even the first primaries. And Biden of course has a demonstrable problem with sustaining his polling in practice, which seems like more relevant evidence toward electability than anything else.