While I agree that picking a candidate solely on the basis on who is polling better on head-to-heads, I do believe they can be good "temperature readings" on how the electorate feels about a particular candidate. And yes I do wish those polls were more recent and I eagerly await new ones as I am sure there are significant changes.

That being said, I am not going to ignore potential warning signs that certain candidates might be more vulnerable in the battleground states than others.

Its all about 270. Nothing else matters. Trump could lose by 10 million votes but if he can still get to 270 he wins, and no amount of crying about the electoral college is going to change that.