Democrat 2020

[Montmorency]

Oh come on, you know the attacks will be more sophisticated. If anything, the GOP is excellent at running elections. They know what buttons to push to get their guy elected where it counts.

A poll released today showed that 58% of Americans have an unfavorable view of socialism, with only 28% favorable. I think it is more of an issue than you think. That same poll shows that 51% believe Trump is handling the economy well. 66% say that the economy is working well for them personally. This bodes very poorly for Sanders and very well for Trump.

I expect we'll find a lot of this stuff is baked in. If you attack Sanders over some construction of "socialism" before voters who aren't technically-minded about ideologies, it just plays into Sanders' brand as an "authentic" truthteller and contrarian who says common-sensical things.

The electorate is familiar with Sanders by now, at least superficially. They've heard that he's a socialist before. Why would it make a big impact now, especially once the conflict is clarified to a one-on-one between him and Trump? It's possible, but I'm not worried.

Like the Maduro thing which is recent. Narratives matter.

What's that? When he called Maduro a dictator?

In 2016 the narrative was that Hillary was corrupt. Now that corrupt narrative has been unleased against Biden. For Bernie, it would be that he's a communist. I'm not saying I agree, but that is what will be blasted over the airwaves constantly until the election.

The Hillary corruption narrative had been cultivated by the entire right wing media and political machines for 25 years before that election. They hit her in the weak spot they had engineered. As I point out above, "socialism" for Sanders is almost like an opposite valence.

Biden's vulnerability is that he doesn't seem - and probably isn't - put together. It would be easy in abstract to turn the Ukraine smear against Trump as a crime against the republic that Trump was impeached over. But Biden isn't that kind of candidate. But that's moot now.

Does it mean that just because the opponent thinks someone is weak that the "weak" candidate will win? Of course not.

Right, and it doesn't mean the opposite. Look at the fundamentals, which include polarization and at least half the population who hate Trump. Any old Democrat has a good shot on paper. The real danger is in the ratfucking that you know is coming.

Ah yes, nonvoters, that reliable voting bloc lol. Relying on them would be a serious gamble. And did that poll say that Sanders was that candidate of fundamental change? Perhaps for many of those nonvoters Trump is that person.

It's part of a study purporting that nonvoters in swing states may be friendlier to Republicans to Democrats, so turning out more voters would in that case backfire. Though the findings are weakened by the high rates of "Other" or IDK responses. The implication is supposed to be that nonvoters tend to dislike the parties and like perceived outsiders (e.g. Trump and Sanders).

Trump is currently at a 46% approval rating. I think people are more okay with him than we would like to imagine.

Obviously he's more popular than we like, that's not the same thing as having the advantage.