Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
I'm sorry, he called him a "vicious tyrant" and repeatedly condemned him.

I think you have an outdated view, as well as a depersonalized one, of what kind of attacks will stick to what kind of candidates. Negative partisanship is a very strong force today.

Even people who hate Sanders repeatedly report finding his "authenticity" admirable. Again, it is what it is. I'm just trying to describe the state of affairs. If Joe Walsh and Mike Bloomberg can choose Sanders over Trump then I'm sure almost every voting Democrat will.
I know, but Ive also been paying attention to how the news cycles go and what goes into attack ads. I hope you are right, Im just shaky in my confidence.

This is anecdotal of course, but my parents are never-Trumpers who voted for Mcmuffin in 2016 and said they would vote for a Biden or a Klobuchar but not Bernie. That is what worries me. I think there is a large group of voters who learn right, hate Trump but are worried that Sanders is too much to the left so they would vote third party. Just looking at 2018 gives me more worry- not a single Bernie-aligned Dem flipped a House seat, while the more moderate candidates did all of the flipping. I cannot see how that bodes well for Bernie.


Let's take the argument implied by the article, which can be assessed and criticized - but I just want to describe it. It is contributing evidence that in some swing states (habitual) nonvoters may lean more Republican, or at least Trumpian, than toward Democrats, and that this may be related to the same cohort's antiestablishmentarian and 'shake things up' attitudes. It is well-known that Democrats, both as a matter of principle and political strategy, promote voter registration and participation and oppose vote-suppressing policies. If it is correct that in a certain state nonvoters are net Republican-leaning, then increasing their turnout in the general would be a net negative for Democrats. On the other hand, given the characteristics of the nonvoting cohort, the contrarian Bernie "political revolution" Sanders might be expected to be more appealing to them than other Democratic candidates would be.

So what it amounts to is an argument for the above-replacement electability of Sanders in swing states. I don't fully buy it - across the states ~1/3 of respondents have no preference between parties or don't know, and I doubt if you forced them all to vote they would vote 3rd party 10X the general rate - but it is food for thought. Average Democrats will turn out against Trump as long as they're not outright demoralized by the nominee, and if the nominee is good with weak leaners or nonvoters then that's a bonus.
I really hope you are right. Honestly.


Here's the thing - the incumbent advantage has been observed to be continually weakening, and the difference between Trump's current polling and his most recent minimum in late October is 3 or 4 points. As always, to win reelection he has to perform at least as well in a specific set of states as he did in 2016. If his polling is running very high in October then we have a problem, but there's no ground for preemptive pessimism. To paraphrase someone, Sanders (if nominated) is on course to handle Trump fairly comfortably barring him suffering another heart attack on stage during the general and subsequently confessing his admiration for Stalin's 1930s policies. Your concerns can't be conclusively dissolved but they are weaker than you hold them to be. You shouldn't be complacent but you shouldn't stress yourself with misdirected anxiety.
Again, I hope you are right.

Especially since Bernie did really well in Nevada. At the time of this post, he has about 46% of the caucus results which is honestly excellent for him. Biden came in second with 23%. Pete is 3rd with 13% and Warren with 8%. Steyer and Klobuchar should drop out now I think. Steyer, who outspent everyone else in Nevada, only has 3.5% to show for it and Klobuchar has 3.4%. I dont know why they are still bothering except for ego. I mean if Klob stayed in I'd kinda understand since she did kinda well in NH but Steyer? Dude needs to take a hint.