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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #451
    Formerly Wigferth Ironwall Senior Member Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

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  2. #452
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    About the endorsements, IIRC weren't those endorsements almost all in Dem primaries? Maybe it says something, but upstart organizations are by definition going to make riskier bets trying to break into the mainstream that will therefore pay off less often. There were nevertheless many progressives elected to Congress or the state governments. Take it state by state and district by district.
    So they make bad endorsements? Or perhaps they just have bad strategy? Whatever it is, its not working. The House was flipped with people who ran in accordance to their district, who understood the landscape. Let's take Rep. Conor Lamb for example. In a very hotly contested race in early 2018, he won in deep red PA-18 as a Blue Dog Democrat who likes fracking. And he won. On the flip side, a huge hubbub was made about Randy Bryce aka Ironstache, who was running for Paul Ryan's seat, the Wisconsin 1st. Endorsed by the progressive groups and had donations pouring in, people thought he had a good shot at unseating Paul Ryan (before he retired like a coward). I know I did. Unfortunately he lost by 12 points. Yes, some progressives won, like AOC and the rest of "the gang." But lets not kid ourselves. AOC's district is D+29, being a progressive there is not that difficult.

    Easy - Sanders focuses on popular issues for moderates such as they may be (and let me be clear, these are popular across the spectrum), including legalizing weed and expanding Social Security (also good for enticing over-45s). Trump will have difficulty sounding credible on those issues. The less popular stuff, like fracking bans, stays out of the stump speech and in the platform. Sanders is hit for being excessively focused on a handful of talking points anyway; that can also be an advantage.
    Lol what? He's already made his positions on those less popular issues clear. Like for fracking, he just introduced a bill banning it lol. He can't conveniently leave those issues out now from his speeches and platform. Surefire way to lose Pennsylvania, which has a ton of fracking sites. But then again, hes already lost Florida so why not Pennsylvania too?
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  3. #453

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    So they make bad endorsements? Or perhaps they just have bad strategy? Whatever it is, its not working. The House was flipped with people who ran in accordance to their district, who understood the landscape. Let's take Rep. Conor Lamb for example. In a very hotly contested race in early 2018, he won in deep red PA-18 as a Blue Dog Democrat who likes fracking. And he won. On the flip side, a huge hubbub was made about Randy Bryce aka Ironstache, who was running for Paul Ryan's seat, the Wisconsin 1st. Endorsed by the progressive groups and had donations pouring in, people thought he had a good shot at unseating Paul Ryan (before he retired like a coward). I know I did. Unfortunately he lost by 12 points. Yes, some progressives won, like AOC and the rest of "the gang." But lets not kid ourselves. AOC's district is D+29, being a progressive there is not that difficult.
    If you want to say they're not as successful in pushing their candidates within the party as they claimed to be, sure. It doesn't entail they wouldn't do well in a general election. Yet there's a Catch-22 here, either successfully take over the party and insiders complain about being pushed out, or fail in doing that and get mocked by same insiders.

    And as always you have to run the right politician, the right personality and manager more than the right platform, in the right jurisdiction. All politics may be national, but that doesn't mean you can stick any candidate in any race. For example, in the barometric 2017 Virginia state elections, self-identified socialist Lee Carter defeated the Republican Assembly Majority Whip, one of the highest-ranking Republicans in Virginia, who had held the seat since 2006 and had won reelection in 2015 by nearly 20 points. Carter's upset appears to have come about in large part to his campaigning skill (and the corresponding lack thereof of his opponent). Carter also comfortably defeated both his Dem primary challenger and Republican opponent in the 2019 election.

    In 2018 Joe Donnelly lost in Indiana, yet Tammy Baldwin won in Wisconsin. Jon Ossof lost to Kate Handel in Georgia in 2017, but a more liberal candidate beat her in 2018. A deep-red House seat in California was flipped for the first time in history by a Medicare for All (and universal pre-K) supporter. When Pennsylvania reelected its Dem governor in 2018 (Tom Wolf, by 17 points vs. 10 in 2014), his running mate for lieutenant governor defeated the incumbent while supporting single payer and a $15 minimum wage. You can always assemble a cherry-picked narrative.

    Lol what? He's already made his positions on those less popular issues clear. Like for fracking, he just introduced a bill banning it lol. He can't conveniently leave those issues out now from his speeches and platform. Surefire way to lose Pennsylvania, which has a ton of fracking sites. But then again, hes already lost Florida so why not Pennsylvania too?
    He's made his positions clear to politics junkies. If he absolutely has to he can pay a visit to some of the trade groups in the fracking hotspots and tactically deemphasize those elements of the Green New Deal, similar to how he played nice with the Nevada Culinary Union recently by acknowledging some buy-in on the subject of union healthcare benefits. But there's is a world of difference between submitting a bill that won't be taken up by committee in the Senate and advocating for that bill every day to crowds and the media in soaring rhetoric. Now that's triangulation we should all be able to get behind.
    Last edited by Montmorency; Today at 06:30.
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