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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #91
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    and promising to dismantle corporations that would probably help you secure the election.
    So political power is indeed in the hands of the corporations and not the people. Everybody bow to your capitalist overlords before they remove you from power?


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  2. #92
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Unless something of serious substance happens this year, there's little chance of a Democrat winning. It's as clear as it can get. With the exception of Sanders and Beto O'Rourke, none of them have mass appeal beyond their base.
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  3. #93

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    It's about perception and outcomes. All it's going to do is fragment the left-leaning voter pool. The right has accomplished unbreaking unity. It doesn't matter if it's absolutely dysfunctional and incapable of doing anything meaningful other than pushing anti-abortion legislation or allowing corporations continue their own bloated existences of stagnation through acquisition and dismemberment.
    First, let me also note that when I say "aggression" there is further the difference between advocating transparently through conviction of belief, and inventing non-Euclidean geometries of perfidy.

    But the left has always been fragmented, it's intrinsic to the nature and distribution of factions and modes of thought compared to the right, which though composed of its own factions (paleo, theo, pluto) basically share consensus on their orientation toward defeating the left.

    The closest thing to a Left Unity candidate is someone extremely charismatic during times of turmoil, which isn't necessarily related to policy or rhetoric. This is the main argument put forward for O'Rourke entering the race, for example. But even Obama had an extensive platform beyond his charisma, though much of it proved squishy on his end or else politically unattainable. As we saw, a unity candidate is not enough to achieve party-line votes. (Btw, did you know Obama was among the first to renounce corporate PAC donations? This is why candidates need to go further and work to reduce the influence of large donors on their campaigns, as Warren promises.)

    So anyway, the Democratic Party is naturally a looser coalition, and the idea that a strong policy program is undesirable as a barrier to factional unity is privileging the most conservative wing of the party and centering their interests and commitments as the site of unity. Beneath the ideological and tactical debates we must recognize the fact that almost all Democrats favor in principle most of the 'divisive' reforms advanced by various candidates - it follows that what remains is to sell it, no? In other words, the unity we get is available either through top-down suppression or through strenuous debate and campaigning between candidates. I believe the latter is both more productive and gets more voters.


    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Unless something of serious substance happens this year, there's little chance of a Democrat winning. It's as clear as it can get. With the exception of Sanders and Beto O'Rourke, none of them have mass appeal beyond their base.
    On what basis do you say so? There's no automatic guarantee of the mass appeal of any candidate, though different pathways have been speculated for each. Ultimately it may be irrelevant, as it's reasonable to maintain that any candidate has a good shot against Trump unless his popularity somehow improves considerably. Remember that Trump has to do at least as well as 2016 to win, but he's never had the numbers to repeat the 2016 election since the 2016 election itself. Since it would nevertheless be foolhardy to count Trump out, I'll elucidae his single pathway to victory: Winning basically all the same states, since he has little prospect for taking any that went majority Clinton, except maybe New Hampshire (+4 EV). He can't lose more than ~40 electoral votes (EV).

    That's what he must accomplish. There's no other way. If he loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio (won by <1% margins each, 75K votes cumulative), he loses the race.

    (Bonus: Trump won Florida by a 100K margin, and Florida is finally allowing most felons to vote again. While I'm sure the GOP government will work to suppress their vote, we're talking potentially hundreds of thousands of net Democratic votes. Throw in the tens of thousands of permanent Puerto Rican arrivals after Hurricane Maria. Trump has a fair chance of losing Florida even if he draws the same number of votes as 2016, making Florida a potential kingmaking swing state. Again.)

    The preconditions for replicating the 2016 election, which was won on tight margins, would be either (as noted) a surge in broad popularity or depressed Democratic turnout. Without having to show why the former is implausible with reference to Trump's qualities as a candidate and relationship to various segments of the electorate, it should be enough to repeat, and I repeat, that Trump the president has never been as popular as Trump the candidate, and Trump the candidate barely won. Democratic turnout is a more serious concern, but the anti-Trump galvanizing effect is operative regardless of nominee, and no candidate is as vulnerable as Hillary Clinton to the right-wing hate machine. Any Democrat (including the moderates) basically has the intangibles in place not to unduly depress voters, barring an "October Surprise" that harms the Dem candidate's reputation. Yet such a concern is so nebulous that it might apply just as well to every candidate, including Sanders. Maybe we find out on October 31 he kicked a horse to death for no reason, who knows.

    Look, Trump maintaining even his current level of support, stable since early 2017, to the election is in question. The most sensible thing to do over the next year is to identify one's preferred candidate and support them.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-12-2019 at 03:15.
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  4. #94
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    So political power is indeed in the hands of the corporations and not the people. Everybody bow to your capitalist overlords before they remove you from power?
    It would be wiser to follow the same strategy that the media corps have been following for years; acquisition and dissolution. Use these corps for your purposes, and then either repurpose them, dismantle them, or regulate them into a safe state. As of now, Facebook and twitter are weapons, and it is foolish to leave them isolated when they can be used by enemy agents as they have been before.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    In other words, the unity we get is available either through top-down suppression or through strenuous debate and campaigning between candidates. I believe the latter is both more productive and gets more voters.
    You are too generous. The opposite side is partially comprised of those who value Trump because he validates their disturbingly degenerate existences based on entitlement.

    http://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/20...e-his-own-ass/

    Tell me, do you think this type of person would react favorably to any type of intelligent debate? Even if they are not reveling in purposefully malicious mediocrity, this is the stuff most people are made of.

    In any case, Warren is just aiming to alleviate the symptoms, not the disease.
    Last edited by CrossLOPER; 03-12-2019 at 06:19.
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  5. #95

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    It would be wiser to follow the same strategy that the media corps have been following for years; acquisition and dissolution. Use these corps for your purposes, and then either repurpose them, dismantle them, or regulate them into a safe state. As of now, Facebook and twitter are weapons, and it is foolish to leave them isolated when they can be used by enemy agents as they have been before.
    But how does this work?? Beyond the 'secret master plan' aspect that isn't really valid outside dictatorships and fiction.

    Say what you plan to do up front so that people get a notion that it's what they want. The democratic state has too little power to manage economic non-state actors today without popular will behind it.

    You are too generous. The opposite side is partially comprised of those who value Trump because he validates their disturbingly degenerate existences based on entitlement.

    http://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/20...e-his-own-ass/

    Tell me, do you think this type of person would react favorably to any type of intelligent debate? Even if they are not reveling in purposefully malicious mediocrity, this is the stuff most people are made of.
    Uh... I think we're diverging in the object of contention. If I have you right, you think my quoted comment has something to do with trying to persuade reactionaries with reason and right values to 'vote for their interests' or whatever. I've weighed in here and elsewhere how I don't think this is a fruitful objective. What you quoted was in response to your comments about, as I understand, party unity; my opinion is that having a round of ideological exchange in the Democratic primaries is healthy and not a factor of disunity in the base, better than conceiving of unity as something that can't be generated but only conserved, through not rocking the boat. If we're still talking about the same things.

    I acknowledge there is a third path to unity, the Trump option, the demagogic personality cult that subsumes the party. But as the party is constitutionally so fragmented and coalitional (philosophically less susceptible than the Right?), there's almost no chance of a demagogue seizing the Democratic Party. It's also a corrosive and ephemeral means to power.

    In any case, Warren is just aiming to alleviate the symptoms, not the disease.
    It's nice to have the bases covered: full spectrum warfare; pragmatic. It's not as though Sanders is offering a comprehensive transformation either (which is why the personality cult around him, to the extent that it is, is misguided). Bernie ain't gonna dismantle capitalism or deliver a Hundred-Year Plan for the endgame of humanity.


    EDIT: Holy , even arch-centrist David Brooks is a believer in reparations now. They poll horribly at the moment, and they're really difficult and uncomfortable conversations to have, but the intellectual force behind the arguments for both reparations and "open borders" may begin to tell. I predict they will gain momentum like gay marriage and marijuana legalization have (bonus: broad drug decriminalization) over time. Watch out for these issues in 2024.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-12-2019 at 23:59.
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  6. #96
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Beto is running. I have seen a lot of Beto/Bernie should run together and alot of Beto is a centrist plant to throw us off "the bern". They seem to pull from the same group.

    I don't think anyone who wants to be taken seriously can say that black people have not faced systemic discrimination in this country. Nor is reparations without precedent e.g. Japanese Interment. It's also worth pointing out that you don't have to do anything individually to be part of something systemic. Also,also, by reading the NYT comments, everyone white in America is either Jewish, a late arrivee, or a union war hero.

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.

    H.R. 40 would be a very nice way to start sorting things out.

    It should also be said that the cornerstone of Americas draconian justice system is based on equal parts racial animus and consideration. Also the reason we have a vey fragmented welfare state. Original sin indeed.
    Last edited by Strike For The South; 03-14-2019 at 14:18.
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  7. #97
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Beto is running. I have seen a lot of Beto/Bernie should run together and alot of Beto is a centrist plant to throw us off "the bern". They seem to pull from the same group.

    I don't think anyone who wants to be taken seriously can say that black people have not faced systemic discrimination in this country. Nor is reparations without precedent e.g. Japanese Interment. It's also worth pointing out that you don't have to do anything individually to be part of something systemic. Also,also, by reading the NYT comments, everyone white in America is either Jewish, a late arrivee, or a union war hero.

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.

    H.R. 40 would be a very nice way to start sorting things out.

    It should also be said that the cornerstone of Americas draconian justice system is based on equal parts racial animus and consideration. Also the reason we have a vey fragmented welfare state. Original sin indeed.
    I take it by your silence you do not approve of my adoration for Meacham.
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  8. #98
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.
    On topic: You mean the death tax?
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  9. #99
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    I take it by your silence you do not approve of my adoration for Meacham.
    No, I read and generally liked American Lion. I don't think it was Pulitzer worthy but I liked it, was a decent introduction to Jackson. He is a good writer but tends to border on hagiography. He is good though.

    And yes I do mean death tax.
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  10. #100
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Beto announced his candidature for 2020 - raising 6 mil in one day.
    Last edited by edyzmedieval; 03-23-2019 at 16:13.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Harris/Beto or Biden/Beto or Biden/Harris would be the three tickets I think have the best chance.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  12. #102
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Pete Buttigieg!

    Now this is a surprise - from 0% to almost 5% in less than 3 weeks, and 7 million dollars raised.
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  13. #103
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    The sooner the elections are the more righteous fighters appear. Why am I not surprised?
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Pete Buttigieg!

    Now this is a surprise - from 0% to almost 5% in less than 3 weeks, and 7 million dollars raised.
    Still need to look into him, but as far as I can tell from his appearance on Bill Maher he has some charisma.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  15. #105

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    *holds tongue*

    Behold, Republicans vs. Senate Dems who value procedural norms for their own sake:

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  16. #106

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Old man Seamus, here's one for updating premises: the incumbency advantage in the House and Senate has disappeared after peaking the late 20th-century, reverting to pre-war norms.

    Gary Jacobson pronounces the incumbency advantage dead in congressional general elections; finds ~2-point bump for House incumbents in 2018 after accounting for party lean of district/money spent and no effect at all in Senate. Voters cared about party & Trump, period.


    Pre-war reversions? Oooh...


    EDIT: Given Bernie Sanders' lackluster and problematic campaigning since he declared, along with emphases of underlying character flaws, whereas Liz Warren has been campaigning pretty much how I hoped and expected Sanders to* at the outset, I must formally transfer my top preference for nominee from Sanders to Warren. See you next month.

    *From a somewhat different ideological stance, but close enough for government work
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-10-2019 at 00:45.
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  17. #107
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Why are you saying that? I googled 'Bernie Sanders lackluster', but the results were articles about how all the other candidates ran problematic campaigns. Anyway, I also find Warren more likeable than Sanders, but my favourite is Joe Biden, who seems more since than either of them.
    "wears tinfoil hat"
    I do notice a proliferation of candidates for the upcoming elections, in comparison to 2016, when Clinton fought against an unknown independent. Had Killary threatened potential competitors back then?

  18. #108
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Old man Seamus, here's one for updating premises: the incumbency advantage in the House and Senate has disappeared after peaking the late 20th-century, reverting to pre-war norms.

    Pre-war reversions? Oooh...
    Si, sono vecchio.

    Interesting shift (though his use of a "quality" assessment for the candidates warrants grain of salt treatment). I found it interesting that the strongest outliers in favor of incumbency were during the height of the war/leftist protest movement during the Vietnam conflict. Of course, the baseline culture was different then, so that may not betoken a backlash against today's crew of ardent lefties.
    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    EDIT: Given Bernie Sanders' lackluster and problematic campaigning since he declared, along with emphases of underlying character flaws, whereas Liz Warren has been campaigning pretty much how I hoped and expected Sanders to* at the outset, I must formally transfer my top preference for nominee from Sanders to Warren. See you next month.

    *From a somewhat different ideological stance, but close enough for government work
    It is not about campaigning at this stage. Too early in the electoral season. Now it is about demonstrating an ability to generate money (notably through the internet) and building state support apparatus for ground-level campaigns in each key state. Candidates with extant name recognition don't have to do as much with campaigning at present, since it is the unknowns who are trying to overcome that status who must do so (Or, in Warren's case, establish an early effort to offset the 'Native American' kerfluffle. If she can get that to the "asked and answered, moving forward" level early enough -- while few are putting much attention to it -- she positions herself to have it "behind her" coming into Iowa in early '20).

    Bernie raised over 18M in the first quarter with a third of his donations coming from donors who did NOT contribute in 2016.
    Harris raised over 12M in the first quarter and Buttigieg over 7M despite a latish start.
    Warren's group did not release their first quarter totals.

    Unless Warren's grass roots support set up is WAY better than it seems from media coverage, it may be a little premature for you to change horses.


    Right now, I am thinking Biden/Buttigieg, with Biden's basic centrist appeal and Buttigieg's strength in Ohio, would be the strongest electoral mix -- though admittedly less trueheart social-democrat than the core of the party faithful would likely prefer.
    Last edited by Seamus Fermanagh; 04-10-2019 at 17:15. Reason: typo
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  19. #109
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    ...I do notice a proliferation of candidates for the upcoming elections, in comparison to 2016, when Clinton fought against an unknown independent. Had Killary threatened potential competitors back then?
    She'd already beaten them. Hillary and Bill had been quietly working the party system for 5/6 years during the Obama administration. The system had been shifted to a heavy emphasis on superdelegates, whom Hillary had gathered up the large majority of even prior to Iowa. Her "heir apparent" status had generated large state organizations in virtually every state that had the least significance. She was, for the first part of the nomination process, really focusing on the general election already.

    Her campaign didn't think that a significant threat from the party's own left could be mounted against the first woman 'president' -- until Bernie tapped into the disaffected side of the party, the smaller states where Clinton had put in no effort, etc. and started winning voters over by saying the things the true believers really wanted to hear. As 'behind' as Bernie was from the outset given the superdelegate count, he almost managed to upset her coronation.

    Had he stolen the nom, it might have been a different election. Trump would have had trouble painting Bernie as a 'jaded insider' and many of the disaffected in the upper Midwest who ended up voting for Trump might well have voted Bernie instead, since a big theme in there vote was being against the Dem system insiders. Not certainly by any means, but potentially different result in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania.

    And the Trump hardcore types were united in the loathing for Hillary. They would have opposed Sanders socialism, but nobody could or did think of him as not believing what he was advocating (Quixotic maybe, but not a hypocrite). Hillary, on the other hand, was and is viewed as the kind of pol whose only interest was power.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  20. #110
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    And the Trump hardcore types were united in the loathing for Hillary. They would have opposed Sanders socialism, but nobody could or did think of him as not believing what he was advocating (Quixotic maybe, but not a hypocrite). Hillary, on the other hand, was and is viewed as the kind of pol whose only interest was power.
    Can confirm for the most part. There was leering at sanders on the trump side for falling into identity politics, what with his "white people dont know what its like to be poor" line, and a general disdane for his seeming weak will exhibited in his surrender of his podium to an invading bunch of shouty students during a speech.

    However I did not see much in the way of the outright contempt for sanders that hillary engendered on the trump side, I even encountered those who saw the man as a sort of worthy opponent for trump; that it would not be so bad a thing if this man beat the god emperor, though that did fade after he decided to back hillary.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 04-10-2019 at 19:25.
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  21. #111
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Yeah, I know that Hillary controlled almost the entirety of the party mechanism, but it was still worth a shot, in my opinion. She really lacks in charisma and has a great talent for appearing like a spoiled brat, so a competent orator could reverse the tide. Bernie almost succeeded and yet he was never a gifted speaker, like Obama. Not to mention Hillary's policies and gaffes alienated many "leftist" voters, while she also suffered from being identified as the embodiment of the previous administration, which ultimately costed her presidential elections. It would be a tough, but not an unwinnable fight, in my opinion.

  22. #112

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    The alt-right appreciated Sanders for the same reason the "Yang Gang" exists: 'welfare for me, not for thee'. Boring.

    The resentful history of Clinton's campaign doesn't hold up well in retrospect.

    Clinton monopolizing party resources toward her campaign was bad, but it's a milestone of a pernicious trend toward prioritizing presidential elections. Obama did much the same, just less intense because the money flow grows with each cycle. The deleterious effect on state and Congressional politics was evidenced in the collapse of the Democratic party during Obama's tenure. 2018 midterms was a rebuke to this emphasis, but now most are back to focusing on the presidency. This is, I should introduce, one of my concerns with Sanders and his most zealous supporters, that they have fallen into a cult of personality and have failed to realize that no "heroic" presidency is worth much without Congressional majorities. If Dems had +20 Senators and +150 Representatives, in step with Rooseveltian figures, a literal donkey in the Oval Office could pass Medicare for All. Roosevelt's max (after his first re-election) was about +250 Reps and +55 Senators, and even then he had to moderate his legislation to pass it. You need those figures if you want a full Green New Deal so much as on the table. The current figures are House +38 and Senate -6.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    On the latter point one can argue for vote deflation. In the 1930s the parties were less ideologically and electorally coherent than they are now. With the expulsion of the Southern Democrats seething in waves along FDR, Truman, LBJ, Reagan, Clinton, and lately Obama, a contemporary Democratic Congressperson in the midst of a supermajority could well be a more reliable vote now than back then. Going further, one could even apply a gerrymandering/suppression handicap to lower the effective Dem threshold. The relatively overwhelming numbers are still the prerequisite for passing legislation more ambitious than the ACA though. And don't get me wrong, the ACA was an enormous lift as it was.


    I'll finish replying about Warren and Sanders within a day, but let me say that watching Warren spitting policies be like:





    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh
    Interesting shift (though his use of a "quality" assessment for the candidates warrants grain of salt treatment). I found it interesting that the strongest outliers in favor of incumbency were during the height of the war/leftist protest movement during the Vietnam conflict. Of course, the baseline culture was different then, so that may not betoken a backlash against today's crew of ardent lefties.
    I'm not familiar with the literature, but here's a paper on the subject of disaggregating the effect of incumbency from "candidate quality", a poli sci variable as venerable as your career.

    Quote Originally Posted by Gelman & King 1990, referenced in tweet
    Note that the definition in equation 1 does not assume that the candidates in
    w(')and wcO) are identical in all respects except for incumbency status. Our theoretical definition of incumbency advantage properly includes the electoral advantages of all the perquisites of office: constituency service, fund-raising, name
    recognition, visibility, and others. We also do not make the counterfactual assumption that candidate quality is the same for incumbents and challengers, allowing quality also to be included in our definition.
    I don't know enough to speculate on granular fluctuations in incumbency advantage, there must be many variables. For example, if per the recent data referenced some main drivers of contemporary voter behavior are partisanship and polarization, then holding that hypothesis alone for the incumbency trend is cleanly contradicted by the incumbency advantage rising and peaking just as the party's were starting to properly diverge from their elite consensus (1950s consensus - 1980s incumbency peak - 2010s hyperpolarization).

    Warren's group did not release their first quarter totals.
    It's out there, disclosure is mandated by law. A little over $6 million, with $10 million transferred from her Senate war chest. Bottoming out among the frontrunners for fundraising is a definite weakness, and I assume her repudiation of high-dollar fundraisers (while admirable) must handicap her.

    Unless Warren's grass roots support set up is WAY better than it seems from media coverage, it may be a little premature for you to change horses.
    I did say "see you next month". My state hasn't even confirmed the date of the primary yet, so I might be irrelevant.

    Right now, I am thinking Biden/Buttigieg, with Biden's basic centrist appeal and Buttigieg's strength in Ohio, would be the strongest electoral mix -- though admittedly less trueheart social-democrat than the core of the party faithful would likely prefer.
    With both Beto and Butty (a genius, to be scrupulously fair) running, Biden would be a high-tier fool to declare at all. While ideology isn't everything given the near-certainty of a divided Congress, electing a team to the right of either Obama/Biden or Clinton/Kaine would seem to be an efficient way to waste a generational opportunity, lose the 2022 midterms, and ensure a one-term Democratic president.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-12-2019 at 02:14.
    Vitiate Man.

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  23. #113
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    ...With both Beto and Butty (a genius, to be scrupulously fair) running, Biden would be a high-tier fool to declare at all. While ideology isn't everything given the near-certainty of a divided Congress, electing a team to the right of either Obama/Biden or Clinton/Kaine would seem to be an efficient way to waste a generational opportunity, lose the 2022 midterms, and ensure a one-term Democratic president.
    Interesting points. Not being a fan of the more socialist side of things, I tend to be skeptical that 2020 as a "generational moment" for that part of the DEM agenda. But given the surprisingly strong performances of Gillum, O'Rourke, etc. in the recent midterms, I can see where you may have a point.

    As to Biden, he gets the luxury of waiting until October or so to make up his mind. His name recognition and wealth of part connections mean that he does not have to work as hard or as early as others to get a national campaign going should he opt in. He can allow some of the early bloomers to wilt and make his choice a bit further down the road.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  24. #114

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Interesting points. Not being a fan of the more socialist side of things, I tend to be skeptical that 2020 as a "generational moment" for that part of the DEM agenda. But given the surprisingly strong performances of Gillum, O'Rourke, etc. in the recent midterms, I can see where you may have a point.
    It's a generational moment with respect to the state of the world, not a political opportunity per se. Of course we don't know what superseding events may occur in the 2020s (I do expect escalating impact), but we can't be so airheaded as to neglect the present while 'waiting for things to happen'. That's my prerogative.


    Quote Originally Posted by Crandar View Post
    Why are you saying that? I googled 'Bernie Sanders lackluster', but the results were articles about how all the other candidates ran problematic campaigns. Anyway, I also find Warren more likeable than Sanders, but my favourite is Joe Biden, who seems more since than either of them.
    "wears tinfoil hat"
    I do notice a proliferation of candidates for the upcoming elections, in comparison to 2016, when Clinton fought against an unknown independent. Had Killary threatened potential competitors back then?
    [Best I can do right now]

    It's not about who's most likeable, but who's the best fit for administering the executive branch and maintaining relations with Congress (with the caveat that the Senate is almost certain to remain either Republican-majority or a thin Dem blocking majority). That's the bottom of the Maslow hierarchy for POTUS.

    To summarize my impressions of the past two months: Sanders' main ideas are in the popular discourse, so to remain above replacement-level he needs to demonstrate new ones, or develop the old ones more granularly and force his competitors to endorse or decline concrete measures. Additionally he must demonstrate good organizational instincts or skills that he can use to permeate the bureaucracy with his ideology, and influence lawmakers at all levels. IMO he hasn't done enough to show competence or understanding of what his role would be. At times it looks like he's focused on stoking his core base, kind of like Trump in that way, and doesn't attribute enough importance to the general electoral and legislative process or to messaging outside his base. Mere conviction isn't sufficient to run things effectively, and doing a lot of rallies, podcast interviews, or chats with your fans isn't enough to build a lasting movement. To limit the scope of comparison to Trump capturing the GOP, recall that Trump represented 90% of traditional Republicans very well from the start, while Sanders represents a small subset of Democrats, plus some independents who have always hated the Democratic Party. There is potential to grow that, but it doesn't come automatically.

    In essence, I got on board with the idea of a Sanders alternative in 2017, before the mainstream co-optation of his causes (to a degree) reduced his marginal utility. Maybe he's not the strongest leader, the most skillful manager, or the most insightful thinker, but the thinking went inasmuch as there is a dramatic ideological disparity between Sanders and other Democrats and a unique opportunity to promote it as a disruption of deepening kleptocracy, a Sanders administration is preferable. Therefore I was willing to give Sanders space to move into the race and prove his critics wrong. So far, he hasn't been adding much value or proving his chops, as I see it.

    Due to his age, at first I envisioned Sanders as more of a symbolic caretaker President (now we get into the question of whether any candidate should be evaluated against two-term potential, but I intend this post to be expressive, not exhaustive), but unfortunately there is an increasing sense that he is acting in the way Clinton was accused of being, using the party as a vehicle for his own advancement rather than advancing progressive causes in government broadly. A leftist who considers themselves essential, indispensable, or "heroic", is at high risk of becoming a liability. There is a reason the contemporary Left is typically understood to look down on the Great Man theory of politics. One of the biggest criticisms of Sanders in 2016 was his inability to explain the implementation of his ideas, or how they fit into a practical bigger picture. He's been campaigning for 4 years and he still remains largely on the level of superficial rhetoric (even his Medicare for All bills haven't been much more than lists of benefits that must be provided), so criticism of Beto O'Rourke for his vapidity must reflect back on Sanders (who has been preparing for much longer). Sanders needs to expand and develop his economic ideas beyond 2016 if he doesn't want it perceived as an old man's fixation on his own rhetoric. I'm not asking for a Hundred-Year Plan for the endgame of humanity here...


    On a tactical or personal level, just a few specific things that brought me down:

    1. I was going to address Sanders flip-flopping on the filibuster, but given the complexifier he just introduced I will revise my judgement. For a moment there, I was afraid Sanders actually believed he could convince Republican Senators to vote his way, or even "replace" them as though they were mere hostile city councillors. That would have been delusional arrogance if it represented his view - though his alternative of having the VP ignore Senate rules seems similarly galaxy-brained. If you have votes to pass Medicare for All, you have votes to just abolish the damn filibuster.

    2. Sanders' recalcitrance on releasing his tax returns has been puzzling. He's had 4 years to get ahead of the thing, and the evasiveness just doesn't look good under any reading. So two problems: lack of preparation and organization, and blockheaded messaging and communication. Especially given his platform. Fair speculation might be that he's just embarrassed to show that he has some money; if embarrassment leads to awkward and juvenile evasiveness that's a bad sign. No one is going to care that you have 3 houses Bernie, we already knew that. He's finally promised (I think? His wording isn't exactly committal) to release them by Tax Day (the coming Monday), so hopefully that gets resolved soon. Couldn't he have given that date weeks ago when the subject came up? Did he decide at the last minute? Either way, bad judgement or organization.

    3. Possibly related to Sanders and tax returns is the fact that his 2016 run made him a lot of money. I don't begrudge him that, but if he can't reconcile it with his ego or rhetoric it becomes an issue. In an absolutely cringeworthy petulant response in an interview a few days ago, he had this to say about his wealth:
    “I wrote a best-selling book,” he declared. “If you write a best-selling book, you can be a millionaire, too.”


    4. Development of Sanders' wife's possible corruption and evident mismanagement of a Vermont college. Sanders and his wife are different people, but Sanders has never bothered to respond in a serious and transparent way. He is earning a reputation for particular family nepotism. Remember that Sanders was never harshly vetted in the crucible of a presidential general election, and the above is reason to believe some unsavory practices might be exposed under scrutiny. The concern is less about it being potentially electorally damaging (unless very serious it's evident that voters' bar for giving a crap about misconduct has risen considerably - unless it's a woman), but I fear whether some of the matter rises to being substantively to his discredit given his brand (independent of the political quality).

    5. Reagan, our oldest President so far, was notoriously infirm in his second term, already degrading under the effects of dementia. Whatever the hell is wrong with Trump (everything), he too has clearly only grown more defective over time. Sanders is 74 years old, and would be our oldest President ever (as would Biden). Demographically, a two-term Sanders would have better than coin-flip odds of dying or becoming disabled in office. Maybe not dispositive, especially if he makes decent VP/Cabinet picks, but this and the likelihood of gradual sub-clinical senescent cognitive decline has to be factored in when choosing candidates. I've come around to take this more seriously, along with the demographic representation aspect of officeholders, especially when I realized the average age of Dem candidates this run is ~50, and only half of the Dem contenders are white men.

    The primary theoretical factor in favor of Sanders at this moment would then be his beginnings of a foreign policy, but campaign advisors aside there's not much evidence that Sanders himself prefers (or has preferred) to spend time thinking about international affairs compared to his diagnosis of the domestic American economy. Not since the 1980s at least. The primary recent data point is the Yemen resolution, but that's at least as much the work of Ro Khanna and Chris Murphy in the House and Senate respectively (another hint that having the right people in Congress is important). What foreign policy views Warren has provided are not greatly different in substance or priority, and ultimately neither rise to the level of aspirational transnational leftist and social solidarity.

    All that said, most of the time remains on the clock. One example of a good marginal move by Sanders was to encourage unionization of his campaign crew. My above should not be taken as an adamant rejection of the Sanders candidacy, nor as a comprehensive description of all my relevant knowledge or impressions. Key weaknesses have been identified and now we have to be vigilant about them, to see whether they're exacerbated when Sanders should be nullifying them.

    It's easy to feel Sanders appeal when Trump picks another unqualified hack nominee for the Federal Reserve, and when you read about the nominee saying things like

    Capitalism is a lot more important than democracy,” Moore said. “I’m not even a big believer in democracy.” “There’s no bigger swamp in Washington than the Federal Reserve Board,” Moore said in a February interview posted on Vimeo. “It’s filled with hundreds of economists who are worthless... They should all be... fired.” He has also advocated for eliminating corporate and federal income taxes, and called the 16th Amendment that created the income tax the “most evil” law passed in the 20th century.
    there is a certain desire to have Sanders rebuilt as RoboRobespierre (Robo-spierre), sent out to round up the reactionaries while quipping that "progress comes one funeral at a time..."

    As for what I like about Warren, maybe it's because we're both Keynesians, old-school social democrats at heart. For the sake of moving the thread along, let's elide some things and move to discussion points. At a glance what I want the thread to keep in mind overall is that her main disadvantage is, of all the first-tier candidates she appears to hold the least broad appeal among the electorate (or at least the primary base), and has the weakest political skills (she's a professor who only got into politics directly around 2011). However, in terms of charisma she seems the most empathetic, which could compensate for other political deficits. Her proven technical skill and audacious policy proposals (see below for overview) are her main strength, allusive of a comprehensive approach to American socioeconomics. It is commonly acknowledged that the vast majority of Americans do not vote according to policy contrasts per se, but since her platform is increasingly comprehensive it could potentially be packaged as an overriding psychological plank, much the same way Sanders, Obama, or Trump did. I recommend the slogan "Hope and Change", but apparently it's been taken.

    Beyond all that, in absolute probability Sanders is IMO going to remain stronger against Trump than Warren, but as highlighted earlier Trump's weakness opens the field for most Democratic challengers, and under such conditions Warren's strengths deserve to be publicized.


    Warren major policy proposals off the top of my head (not full detail):

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    1. The latest one as of yesterday was an ~7% tax on global corporate profits above $100 million, in addition to existing taxes (I believe the 2017 Republican tax law largely eliminated our unique practice of taxing global corporate income). Alternative minimum?

    2. Of course the 2% individual wealth tax on assets over $50 million, and 3% on assets over $1 billion. Netherlands have an effective wealth tax of ~1.4% for comparison.

    3. Federally-supervised universal guarantee of childcare (like the Soviet Union! Not really!), though there is some means-testing around the median family income. Valid childcare jobs are required to have significantly elevated working standards and pay.

    4. Something about worker co-determination on corporate boards; other corporate governance reform.

    5. Government-led residential building spree of lower-income housing, 3 million units I believe. Don't remember timeframe, but there were a lot of other interesting details, including rent costs.

    6. Abolish the Senate filibuster. Abolish the electoral college.

    7. Aggressive enforcement of dormant anti-trust law, which has since Reagan seen its objectives recalibrated from preventing market consolidation to maintaining low prices for consumers (i.e. pro-consolidation tilt). Some of her suggested targets are the big tech monopolies like Amazon and Facebook.

    8. Legal and carceral penalties for corporate leadership (compared to applying haphazard fines that fall below the threshold of profitability of wrongdoing). Stiffened IRS and white-collar crime enforcement in general.

    9. Extensive federal anti-corruption/lobbying bill.


    Phew, and I'm sure I missed a lot. She's also pro-universal healthcare, pro-Green New Deal, pro-reparations, similar stated foreign policy positions to Sanders, but AFAIK not concrete and detailed proposals on those yet. No one does, except Sanders and his M4A.


    Self-criticism note of the day: I've bothered to read a little about O'Rourke and Buttigieg over the last month. However, early on I decided that I was going to avoid setting aside time to learn about lower-tier candidates like Castro, Gillibrand (and she's my Senator for god's sake), and Booker (<insert Jersey joke>) if I could get away with it, or unless they gained more traction. Yeah... better look up those two hot young white men who are long shots, but the white woman, black man, and Latino man - naaah.

    RACISM/SEXISM DETECTED
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-14-2019 at 07:21.
    Vitiate Man.

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  25. #115
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post

    RACISM/SEXISM DETECTED
    And ageism as well:

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Demographically, a two-term Sanders would have better than coin-flip odds of dying or becoming disabled in office.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

  26. #116

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Meh, so Sanders' tax returns were as expected. He must have been hyperventilating about possible negative coverage over his book income presumably, and deflected and resisted opening up about it kind of like Clinton did for too long over teh dam Emails. A needless drawn out self-Streisand by Sanders, because I doubt any one candidate is going to get the kind of overblown media treatment Clinton got; certainly only the occasional op-ed is ever going to raise the Sanders income thing again.

    Also he did a town hall on Fox News today and I guess it was fine. There is an argument that since Fox News is a fascist propaganda machine it should be shunned to avoid lending it legitimacy, but on the other hand with tens of millions of viewers and demonstrable electoral and cultural clout... it's pretty damn legitimate as it is, no? Might as well have a go at subverting it, as long as you're not undermining the Left at large.

    Wouldn't it be great if I could stop paying attention to this for a few months?
    Vitiate Man.

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  27. #117
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    His tax returns were very ho hum. The fact he's acquired so little wealth when he's been a senator for so long should be commended lol. I suppose the fear is that Trump, or maybe someone within the party, would his returns as a cudgel against him. That would be a real stretch though.

    Still abroad the Harris train because I see her as someone who will make criminal justice reform a priority. Very lukewarm on Beto and Pete. Will vote for whomever gets the nom.

    1.Harris
    2.Warren
    3.Booker
    4.Sanders
    5.Everyone else.
    There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford

    My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.

    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

  28. #118
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, Cub Shoot 2 Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Treasure Diver Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Slack Man Champion, Japanese Baseball Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Super Mario Mushroom Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Fish Kill Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, KF 9000 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    ..Still abroad the Harris train....
    Freudian slip? Sexist reference to 'a broad?' Or just a silly typo.

    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  29. #119
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Freudian slip? Sexist reference to 'a broad?' Or just a silly typo.

    Dyslexia.
    There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford

    My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.

    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

  30. #120

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    His tax returns were very ho hum. The fact he's acquired so little wealth when he's been a senator for so long should be commended lol. I suppose the fear is that Trump, or maybe someone within the party, would his returns as a cudgel against him. That would be a real stretch though.

    Still abroad the Harris train because I see her as someone who will make criminal justice reform a priority. Very lukewarm on Beto and Pete. Will vote for whomever gets the nom.

    1.Harris
    2.Warren
    3.Booker
    4.Sanders
    5.Everyone else.
    Well, inasmuch as he is accumulating surplus wealth beyond that which he was accustomed to, by definition there is no reason for him to hang on to it. Substantively. Right?

    Since I don't know much about Booker besides derogatory industrial-lobby connections and that he may be more bullish on criminal justice reform than Harris - what is his value added in your opinion?
    Vitiate Man.

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