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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #91
    Iron Fist Senior Member Husar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    and promising to dismantle corporations that would probably help you secure the election.
    So political power is indeed in the hands of the corporations and not the people. Everybody bow to your capitalist overlords before they remove you from power?


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  2. #92
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Unless something of serious substance happens this year, there's little chance of a Democrat winning. It's as clear as it can get. With the exception of Sanders and Beto O'Rourke, none of them have mass appeal beyond their base.
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  3. #93

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    It's about perception and outcomes. All it's going to do is fragment the left-leaning voter pool. The right has accomplished unbreaking unity. It doesn't matter if it's absolutely dysfunctional and incapable of doing anything meaningful other than pushing anti-abortion legislation or allowing corporations continue their own bloated existences of stagnation through acquisition and dismemberment.
    First, let me also note that when I say "aggression" there is further the difference between advocating transparently through conviction of belief, and inventing non-Euclidean geometries of perfidy.

    But the left has always been fragmented, it's intrinsic to the nature and distribution of factions and modes of thought compared to the right, which though composed of its own factions (paleo, theo, pluto) basically share consensus on their orientation toward defeating the left.

    The closest thing to a Left Unity candidate is someone extremely charismatic during times of turmoil, which isn't necessarily related to policy or rhetoric. This is the main argument put forward for O'Rourke entering the race, for example. But even Obama had an extensive platform beyond his charisma, though much of it proved squishy on his end or else politically unattainable. As we saw, a unity candidate is not enough to achieve party-line votes. (Btw, did you know Obama was among the first to renounce corporate PAC donations? This is why candidates need to go further and work to reduce the influence of large donors on their campaigns, as Warren promises.)

    So anyway, the Democratic Party is naturally a looser coalition, and the idea that a strong policy program is undesirable as a barrier to factional unity is privileging the most conservative wing of the party and centering their interests and commitments as the site of unity. Beneath the ideological and tactical debates we must recognize the fact that almost all Democrats favor in principle most of the 'divisive' reforms advanced by various candidates - it follows that what remains is to sell it, no? In other words, the unity we get is available either through top-down suppression or through strenuous debate and campaigning between candidates. I believe the latter is both more productive and gets more voters.


    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Unless something of serious substance happens this year, there's little chance of a Democrat winning. It's as clear as it can get. With the exception of Sanders and Beto O'Rourke, none of them have mass appeal beyond their base.
    On what basis do you say so? There's no automatic guarantee of the mass appeal of any candidate, though different pathways have been speculated for each. Ultimately it may be irrelevant, as it's reasonable to maintain that any candidate has a good shot against Trump unless his popularity somehow improves considerably. Remember that Trump has to do at least as well as 2016 to win, but he's never had the numbers to repeat the 2016 election since the 2016 election itself. Since it would nevertheless be foolhardy to count Trump out, I'll elucidae his single pathway to victory: Winning basically all the same states, since he has little prospect for taking any that went majority Clinton, except maybe New Hampshire (+4 EV). He can't lose more than ~40 electoral votes (EV).

    That's what he must accomplish. There's no other way. If he loses Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio (won by <1% margins each, 75K votes cumulative), he loses the race.

    (Bonus: Trump won Florida by a 100K margin, and Florida is finally allowing most felons to vote again. While I'm sure the GOP government will work to suppress their vote, we're talking potentially hundreds of thousands of net Democratic votes. Throw in the tens of thousands of permanent Puerto Rican arrivals after Hurricane Maria. Trump has a fair chance of losing Florida even if he draws the same number of votes as 2016, making Florida a potential kingmaking swing state. Again.)

    The preconditions for replicating the 2016 election, which was won on tight margins, would be either (as noted) a surge in broad popularity or depressed Democratic turnout. Without having to show why the former is implausible with reference to Trump's qualities as a candidate and relationship to various segments of the electorate, it should be enough to repeat, and I repeat, that Trump the president has never been as popular as Trump the candidate, and Trump the candidate barely won. Democratic turnout is a more serious concern, but the anti-Trump galvanizing effect is operative regardless of nominee, and no candidate is as vulnerable as Hillary Clinton to the right-wing hate machine. Any Democrat (including the moderates) basically has the intangibles in place not to unduly depress voters, barring an "October Surprise" that harms the Dem candidate's reputation. Yet such a concern is so nebulous that it might apply just as well to every candidate, including Sanders. Maybe we find out on October 31 he kicked a horse to death for no reason, who knows.

    Look, Trump maintaining even his current level of support, stable since early 2017, to the election is in question. The most sensible thing to do over the next year is to identify one's preferred candidate and support them.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-12-2019 at 04:15.
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  4. #94
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Husar View Post
    So political power is indeed in the hands of the corporations and not the people. Everybody bow to your capitalist overlords before they remove you from power?
    It would be wiser to follow the same strategy that the media corps have been following for years; acquisition and dissolution. Use these corps for your purposes, and then either repurpose them, dismantle them, or regulate them into a safe state. As of now, Facebook and twitter are weapons, and it is foolish to leave them isolated when they can be used by enemy agents as they have been before.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    In other words, the unity we get is available either through top-down suppression or through strenuous debate and campaigning between candidates. I believe the latter is both more productive and gets more voters.
    You are too generous. The opposite side is partially comprised of those who value Trump because he validates their disturbingly degenerate existences based on entitlement.

    http://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/20...e-his-own-ass/

    Tell me, do you think this type of person would react favorably to any type of intelligent debate? Even if they are not reveling in purposefully malicious mediocrity, this is the stuff most people are made of.

    In any case, Warren is just aiming to alleviate the symptoms, not the disease.
    Last edited by CrossLOPER; 03-12-2019 at 07:19.
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  5. #95

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    It would be wiser to follow the same strategy that the media corps have been following for years; acquisition and dissolution. Use these corps for your purposes, and then either repurpose them, dismantle them, or regulate them into a safe state. As of now, Facebook and twitter are weapons, and it is foolish to leave them isolated when they can be used by enemy agents as they have been before.
    But how does this work?? Beyond the 'secret master plan' aspect that isn't really valid outside dictatorships and fiction.

    Say what you plan to do up front so that people get a notion that it's what they want. The democratic state has too little power to manage economic non-state actors today without popular will behind it.

    You are too generous. The opposite side is partially comprised of those who value Trump because he validates their disturbingly degenerate existences based on entitlement.

    http://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/20...e-his-own-ass/

    Tell me, do you think this type of person would react favorably to any type of intelligent debate? Even if they are not reveling in purposefully malicious mediocrity, this is the stuff most people are made of.
    Uh... I think we're diverging in the object of contention. If I have you right, you think my quoted comment has something to do with trying to persuade reactionaries with reason and right values to 'vote for their interests' or whatever. I've weighed in here and elsewhere how I don't think this is a fruitful objective. What you quoted was in response to your comments about, as I understand, party unity; my opinion is that having a round of ideological exchange in the Democratic primaries is healthy and not a factor of disunity in the base, better than conceiving of unity as something that can't be generated but only conserved, through not rocking the boat. If we're still talking about the same things.

    I acknowledge there is a third path to unity, the Trump option, the demagogic personality cult that subsumes the party. But as the party is constitutionally so fragmented and coalitional (philosophically less susceptible than the Right?), there's almost no chance of a demagogue seizing the Democratic Party. It's also a corrosive and ephemeral means to power.

    In any case, Warren is just aiming to alleviate the symptoms, not the disease.
    It's nice to have the bases covered: full spectrum warfare; pragmatic. It's not as though Sanders is offering a comprehensive transformation either (which is why the personality cult around him, to the extent that it is, is misguided). Bernie ain't gonna dismantle capitalism or deliver a Hundred-Year Plan for the endgame of humanity.


    EDIT: Holy , even arch-centrist David Brooks is a believer in reparations now. They poll horribly at the moment, and they're really difficult and uncomfortable conversations to have, but the intellectual force behind the arguments for both reparations and "open borders" may begin to tell. I predict they will gain momentum like gay marriage and marijuana legalization have (bonus: broad drug decriminalization) over time. Watch out for these issues in 2024.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-13-2019 at 00:59.
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  6. #96
    Apr 04-Nov 11 Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Beto is running. I have seen a lot of Beto/Bernie should run together and alot of Beto is a centrist plant to throw us off "the bern". They seem to pull from the same group.

    I don't think anyone who wants to be taken seriously can say that black people have not faced systemic discrimination in this country. Nor is reparations without precedent e.g. Japanese Interment. It's also worth pointing out that you don't have to do anything individually to be part of something systemic. Also,also, by reading the NYT comments, everyone white in America is either Jewish, a late arrivee, or a union war hero.

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.

    H.R. 40 would be a very nice way to start sorting things out.

    It should also be said that the cornerstone of Americas draconian justice system is based on equal parts racial animus and consideration. Also the reason we have a vey fragmented welfare state. Original sin indeed.
    Last edited by Strike For The South; 03-14-2019 at 15:18.
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  7. #97
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Beto is running. I have seen a lot of Beto/Bernie should run together and alot of Beto is a centrist plant to throw us off "the bern". They seem to pull from the same group.

    I don't think anyone who wants to be taken seriously can say that black people have not faced systemic discrimination in this country. Nor is reparations without precedent e.g. Japanese Interment. It's also worth pointing out that you don't have to do anything individually to be part of something systemic. Also,also, by reading the NYT comments, everyone white in America is either Jewish, a late arrivee, or a union war hero.

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.

    H.R. 40 would be a very nice way to start sorting things out.

    It should also be said that the cornerstone of Americas draconian justice system is based on equal parts racial animus and consideration. Also the reason we have a vey fragmented welfare state. Original sin indeed.
    I take it by your silence you do not approve of my adoration for Meacham.
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  8. #98
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post

    In my own opinion, we should beef up the estate tax and use that for the engine for whatever decides to be done. I think that could actually garner some widespread support, not saying that wide spread support should underpin what is decided to be done, just that it would be nice to have.
    On topic: You mean the death tax?
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  9. #99
    Apr 04-Nov 11 Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    I take it by your silence you do not approve of my adoration for Meacham.
    No, I read and generally liked American Lion. I don't think it was Pulitzer worthy but I liked it, was a decent introduction to Jackson. He is a good writer but tends to border on hagiography. He is good though.

    And yes I do mean death tax.
    There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford

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    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

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  10. #100
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Beto announced his candidature for 2020 - raising 6 mil in one day.
    Last edited by edyzmedieval; 03-23-2019 at 17:13.
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  11. #101
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Harris/Beto or Biden/Beto or Biden/Harris would be the three tickets I think have the best chance.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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