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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #811

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    I don’t really understand why you seem to believe the leadership does not matter.

    The majority Party's leadership (or more accurately their whips) and the presidential veto; these are the most important tools in directing action and protecting said action from sabotaging additions.

    The people that would be holding said tools in the event of a sweeping 2020 democratic victory are fundamentally unwilling to employ them to either on the matter of universal healthcare, or really anything else you believe would be of benefit. Just look at what they have been doing the last 10 years, hell the last month of stimulus fights is an inditement of their priorities; they are corporatists through and through.

    These are not the people to "bring American democracy back from the brink" or whatever ideal the democrat base may believe. They are holding pattern politicians, comfortable in the groove of greenlighting corporate handouts, dragging heels on border security and indulging in ineffectual pearls clutching for brownie points at every opportunity.
    That's simply not how politics works or legislation moves. The limiting factor is the least-supportive coalition/party politician or faction. Always. The only short-term way to defeat or overcome their influence is to dilute it by electing as many more-pliant copartisans as possible. The margin between your party and the opposing party has to be big enough for internal opposition to be disempowered.

    Did you not recognize this from the actual holding pattern of the May government in the UK?

    The way you think about politics is overly centered on the bully pulpit, but top-down rhetoric is ultimately an illusion; a speech or white paper or press conference doesn't represent tangible achievement. All else equal, Jeremy Corbyn in the White House makes no more difference to the healthcare system than Biden in the WH. Corbyn might experiment with some regulatory tricks within his power, lean more on expanding Medicaid (as compared to Trump admin promoting states' restricting it), but that's it.

    Like I said in another thread maybe, if we were the sort of country to elect 100% Bidens to all positions, we would easily have the most expansive universal healthcare system on the planet. If I were you I would watch the Senate elections at least as closely as the presidential one this fall.

    As for the stimulus, who are you referring to? The Democrats were advancing cyclically-conditioned (mandatory) $2000+ monthly UBI and hundreds of billions in bailouts for states and cities, all off the table for Republicans. Their big success in the relief bills that were passed was an unemployment insurance expansion that replaces more than 100% of income for most of the people losing their jobs. (Let's see what happens when the April jobs report comes out next week.)

    You won’t get ethics in federal journalism reform because they benefit from the status quo.
    That's not a real thing. You know what the joke is in reference to, right?

    you most definitely won’t get Healthcare reform in any form beyond a half-assed "compromise". You know why I say this, because that’s what they did last time and they haven’t changed an iota.

    Last time the current generation of democrats were put to the task they cribbed a republican system as a "compromise" and proceeded to make a pigs ear of it; launching with a panoply of problems and in the end helping some at the expense of many others.
    When you say things like this it indicates total ignorance of... well, everything. Contrary to common opinion on the right, Obama was not a dictator. The ACA did not resemble the conservative plans that inspired it, and it was successful in being the single greatest legislative wealth transfer to low-income groups in half a century. Could more have been done? If Democrats had killed the filibuster yes, but at the time they were too wedded to proceduralism (the 60-vote threshold) to consider it. If they comfortably retake the Senate now (by my stipulation of at least 52 or 53 seats) and still decline to advance a partisan agenda, then I will be able to agree that they haven't learned enough since the last time.


    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    So, in the UK we have the Conservatives paying 80% of a large part of the private sector for several months which is growth of the state that even Corbyn might have thought was overreach.
    Err...
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51977363
    The state should pay up to 90% of the monthly wages of people most at risk of losing their jobs due to coronavirus, Labour has said.
    Under Labour's plan, middle-earners in at-risk firms would receive 85% of their monthly salary from the state and higher earners 80%, with the remainder being topped-up by employers.

    Anyone working for a company which faces having to lay off a minimum of 30 staff, or one in five of their workforce, would be eligible.

    Employed and self-employed workers who can show their revenues will be 30% lower than in the same month last year should also qualify for support.

    The plan would also cover those temporarily out of work - such as teachers, those having to care for dependants with special needs and those placed on unpaid leave.
    Labour is also calling for other major changes to the benefit system, including:

    An immediate increase in statutory sick pay to 90% of average earnings or living wage levels
    Guaranteed sick pay for part-time workers and those on zero hours contracts
    Equivalent compensation for the self-employed
    Universal Credit advances to be in the form of non-repayable loans
    Increases in other benefits, such as Jobseeker's Allowance and Carer's Allowance
    I think the error was in assuming that emergency payroll support is an inherently left-wing policy; privatization of public goods is more clearly conservative. A socialist would want to exploit the opportunity created by the pandemic to nationalize distressed key industries, not just underwrite the ownership class to prevent labor chaos.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 05-02-2020 at 05:26.
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  2. #812
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    If Democrats had killed the filibuster yes, but at the time they were too wedded to proceduralism (the 60-vote threshold) to consider it. If they comfortably retake the Senate now (by my stipulation of at least 52 or 53 seats) and still decline to advance a partisan agenda, then I will be able to agree that they haven't learned enough since the last time.
    While I agree that it will probably be necessary to kill the filibuster if the Dems retake the Senate in November, doing so makes me very uneasy. Sure, if we could guarantee that the Senate is Dem for the foreseeable future then go ahead, but the electorate is fickle and Id only expect the Dems to hold the Senate for one or two cycles before it goes back to being GOP controlled since the Senate as an institution is far more easily controlled by the GOP. I dunno, maybe a thorough electoral thrashing would shock the GOP into not being such an utter twit but I doubt it.
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  3. #813

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    While I agree that it will probably be necessary to kill the filibuster if the Dems retake the Senate in November, doing so makes me very uneasy. Sure, if we could guarantee that the Senate is Dem for the foreseeable future then go ahead, but the electorate is fickle and Id only expect the Dems to hold the Senate for one or two cycles before it goes back to being GOP controlled since the Senate as an institution is far more easily controlled by the GOP. I dunno, maybe a thorough electoral thrashing would shock the GOP into not being such an utter twit but I doubt it.
    Discarding the filibuster is not costless, but the costs of not doing so are immediate (plus chronic) and obvious.

    In the past 20 years there has not been a single instance in which Republicans were thwarted from doing something they wanted by a procedural filibuster in the Senate. I wouldn't be surprised if that's always been the case. If the filibuster did get in their way, they would eliminate it, just as McConnell unhesitatingly eliminated the Supreme Court supermajority requirement as soon as it posed an obstacle to confirming Gorsuch.

    We can't let the threat of Republican escalations (which are inevitable) to prevent us from doing something to counter Republican escalations, to say nothing of addressing the country's problems. Speaking of which, we will probably be in a depression come 2021, and failure to act decisively to redress those conditions is wrong, for prolonging the suffering of millions and for reliably dooming the party in 2022 and perhaps 2024. One of Obama's most impactful mistakes was not proposing a bigger stimulus package. Deficit hawkery only undermined the recovery's full potential, which certainly hurt the Democrats in 2010 and 2014 at least.

    Where skill and discretion are called for is in the timing. You can't start with eliminating the filibuster, drawing all the expected media criticism, and come out with nothing to show for it. There must be total certainty whatever it is will pass with 50+ votes. Otherwise it's a massive self-own. There has to be a legislative program ready to go, preferably after allowing the Republicans an opportunity to demonstrate negotiation in good faith (but don't accept their amendments, they'll never vote for the final product.)
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  4. #814
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    I agree with you. I also think that Schumer has been a terrible Minority Leader who acquiesces way too easily and should the Dems retake the Senate I will get upset if he becomes Majority Leader. We need a Dem version of McConnell, plain and simple. I actually think Warren would be a good pick to lead the Senate.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    On a related note, polling has Bullock up in Montana, Hickenlooper is up in Colorado, Kelly up in Arizona, Cunningham is tied in North Carolina, Gideon is beating Collins, and Ernst is plunging in the polls. Obviously its 6 months out but if this holds we might be able to take back the Senate which would be huge.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    On a related note, polling has Bullock up in Montana, Hickenlooper is up in Colorado, Kelly up in Arizona, Cunningham is tied in North Carolina, Gideon is beating Collins, and Ernst is plunging in the polls. Obviously its 6 months out but if this holds we might be able to take back the Senate which would be huge.

    Tell the newbies coming in January to uncap the house and track it the cubed root of the population. I can help chip in for new chairs.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Also tell the Capitol to create a new tour where you get to sit in the seat of your Representative for 5 minutes.

    I want to run for office in the next 5-10 years and it helps if I can say at the first debate that I have sat in his seat before, with no context given.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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  8. #818
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Also tell the Capitol to create a new tour where you get to sit in the seat of your Representative for 5 minutes.

    I want to run for office in the next 5-10 years and it helps if I can say at the first debate that I have sat in his seat before, with no context given.
    Ha I wish. Access to the floor of the House and Senate is very tightly controlled. Not even regular staffers usually get access, they need special permission. If memory serves, besides the actual members only the higher echelon staff have regular access. Unfortunately I was never important enough to be allowed on the House floor.
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  9. #819
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    I'm sure it's more interesting to look from the balconies, you get a full view.

    (I've been multiple times for work in the immense Palace of the Parliament in my own country, never been on the Parliament floor either)
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Ha I wish. Access to the floor of the House and Senate is very tightly controlled. Not even regular staffers usually get access, they need special permission. If memory serves, besides the actual members only the higher echelon staff have regular access. Unfortunately I was never important enough to be allowed on the House floor.
    My recollection as well. I interned in a sen policy committee one summer. Only senators, chamber staff, invited guests, and those few with legacy to enter could reach the floor area. Heck. One elevator in each stack was senator only when a vote had been called.
    Last edited by Seamus Fermanagh; 05-11-2020 at 04:36.
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  11. #821
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    One elevator in each stack was senator only when a vote had been called.
    Same on the House side. My most awkward moment ever was when I accidentally got in the member-only elevator and shared a ride up with two members of congress. It wasnt during session and they were super nice about it (they were both Republican and I dont remember their names, old white guys lol) but I pretty much wanted to die after.

    Edit: another supremely awkward moment was when Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ-3) came into my office as I was manning the front desk once in business casual attire and not wearing his lapel pin that identifies him as a member of congress. He looks pretty young so I thought he was just another staffer. Big oof.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 05-10-2020 at 18:43.
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  12. #822
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    I'm sure it's more interesting to look from the balconies, you get a full view.

    (I've been multiple times for work in the immense Palace of the Parliament in my own country, never been on the Parliament floor either)
    Admittedly, I was there for the last senate session which featured Strom Thurmond in the Senate, but looking down from the gallery at that time the thing you noticed most readily among senators was the shocking preponderance of comb-overs...
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  13. #823
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    CA 25th is a disaster. How do you fuck up running against a guy who wants to eliminate food stamps.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  14. #824
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    CA 25th is a disaster. How do you fuck up running against a guy who wants to eliminate food stamps.
    By being a district that has voted red in every election for like 30 years? 2018 was more of a fluke than anything else. Combine that with a low turnout special election and there you have it. They are having a rematch in November so thats the real test.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    By being a district that has voted red in every election for like 30 years? 2018 was more of a fluke than anything else. Combine that with a low turnout special election and there you have it. They are having a rematch in November so thats the real test.
    There are more Dems and lean Dems than Rep at this point in CA 25. Smith had no ground game compared to Garcia who had signs everywhere, even in areas which weren't part of the district. She got hammered for the vet comment but didn't flip the script on Garcia's blunders when speaking. She didn't want to debate. Katie Hill wasn't some perfect candidate she ran a good campaign against a somewhat popular incumbent and flipped it because the turnout was there.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  16. #826
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Well lets see if she can fix that by November.
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  17. #827
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    I still find, as an European, the whole thing with Katie Hill just plain weird. Yes, it was inappropriate and she deserved the punishment but the whole thing was just weird. So much interest for one's personal life.

    Why is it so important to do tabloid-like things for the private life of a Congressman?
    Last edited by edyzmedieval; 05-23-2020 at 19:04.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    As I recall, Dem leadership asked Hill to not resign due to her vulnerable seat but she did so anyways. I thought it was a dumb move but if she felt it was the right thing to do then so be it. I wish she didnt though since it was so obvious that her personal photos were leaked by her ex husband as revenge in an effort to get her to resign. Couple that with some really shady GOP operatives making comments about it and I think it was a successful GOP op. Granted she did act improperly with a campaign staffer but I dont think it warranted a resignation. Really just a sad story. If anything it demonstrates how taking the high road puts Dems at a disadvantage. Essentially the Dems play football while the GOP plays Calvinball- making up the rules along the way as they see fit.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 05-24-2020 at 02:24.
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  19. #829
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    As I recall, Dem leadership asked Hill to not resign due to her vulnerable seat but she did so anyways. I thought it was a dumb move but if she felt it was the right thing to do then so be it. I wish she didnt though since it was so obvious that her personal photos were leaked by her ex husband as revenge in an effort to get her to resign. Couple that with some really shady GOP operatives making comments about it and I think it was a successful GOP op. Granted she did act improperly with a campaign staffer but I dont think it warranted a resignation. Really just a sad story. If anything it demonstrates how taking the high road puts Dems at a disadvantage. Essentially the Dems play football while the GOP plays Calvinball- making up the rules along the way as they see fit.
    Neither political party seems to be able to avoid this kind of political "op." Why work on policy when you can trade in sleaze? People understand sleaze.

    And USA politics has held on to the concept of Victorian Sexual mores (as preached not practiced) as a political standard far longer than anyone else.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Considering Klobuchars past as a prosecutor and current events, I think it is safe to say that she is probably out as a VP pick.

    As chief prosecutor for Minnesota’s most populous county from 1999 to 2007, Klobuchar declined to bring charges in more than two dozen cases in which people were killed in encounters with police.

    At the same time, she aggressively prosecuted smaller offenses such as vandalism and routinely sought longer-than-recommended sentences, including for minors. Such prosecutions, done with the aim of curbing more serious crimes, have had mixed results and have been criticized for their disproportionate effect on poor and minority communities.
    I did see an article which stated that one of the officers who Klobuchar declined to prosecute was one of the officers involved in the murder of George Floyd (Derek Chauvin) but the source is not reliable so Im not going to post it until a more reputable source reports on it.

    Edit: a reputable source reported on it: https://theweek.com/speedreads/91692...uct-complaints
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    In the end, there's no question that Biden should be nominee and it was foolish to imagine restarting the process.


    A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden clearly ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden's up by a 53% to 43% margin among registered voters in this survey.

    But it's important to put individual polls into context, and that context continues to show Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began in the 1930s.

    There were more than 40 national public polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. He's the first challenger to be ahead of the incumbent in every May poll since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976. Carter, of course, won the 1976 election. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era.

    Biden remains the lone challenger to be up in the average of polls in every single month of the election year. His average lead in a monthly average of polls has never dipped below 4 points and has usually been above it.

    Biden hasn't trailed Trump this entire year in a single telephone poll in which at least some voters were reached via their cell phones -- historically the most accurate. The ABC News/Washington Post poll is the latest example of these polls. In fact, Biden's never been behind in any of these polls since at least January 2019. No other challenger has come close to that mark.

    Indeed, the stability of Biden's edge has been what is most impressive. The May polls had Biden up by 6 points on average. That is right where the average of polls taken since the beginning of this year has been. It's where the average of polls conducted since the beginning of 2019 has been as well.

    If we limit ourselves to just the telephone polls that call cell phones, Biden's edge might even be slightly larger. This month those polls have Biden up 7 points on average. Estimating Biden's advantage from state polls of this type shows a similar lead for Biden.
    A look at the fundamentals shows why Trump continues to trail. Simply put, he remains unpopular.

    His net approval rating (approval - disapproval) in the ABC News/Washington Post poll was -8 points. That's very close to the average of polls, which has it at about -10 points. At no point during the past three years has Trump ever had a positive net approval rating.

    The only other two presidents to have a net approval rating this low at this point in the campaign were Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both of them lost reelection.


    October 25, 2019

    We are not prepared for a pandemic. Trump has rolled back progress President Obama and I made to strengthen global health security. We need leadership that builds public trust, focuses on real threats, and mobilizes the world to stop outbreaks before they reach our shores.
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  22. #832
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    His address today was also excellent, a stark contrast to the clown show that was Trump's media stunt yesterday.

    There is some fear that the protests will help Trump by being able to portray himself as the law and order president like Nixon did in '68. The difference however is that Trump is the incumbent and Nixon was not so its a bit different in the sense that he cant say "vote for me and there will be order." However, Biden is portraying himself as the peace candidate, and police reform is now a prominent part of the election so it will be interesting to see how this impacts the race and the VP pick.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-02-2020 at 17:37.
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  23. #833
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    He was first the Economy President. Then that didn't work.

    OK... he's the War President - then turns out he's pretty crap at fighting an infection.

    Now he's the Law and Order President. Which given how many laws he's broken / court cases he's been in and cases currently outstanding this really is a massive display of desperation.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  24. #834
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    This is a scary scenario:

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...wrence-douglas

    Imagine that it’s November 3, 2020, and Joe Biden has just been declared the winner of the presidential election by all the major networks except for Fox News. It was a close, bitter race, but Biden appears to have won with just over 280 electoral votes. Because Election Day took place in the middle of a second wave of coronavirus infections, turnout was historically low and a huge number of votes were cast via absentee ballot. While Biden is the presumptive winner, the electoral process was bumpy, with thousands of mail-in votes in closely fought states still waiting to be counted. Trump, naturally, refuses to concede and spends election night tweeting about how “fraudulent” the vote was.
    To say that we’re facing a perfect storm is clichéd, but it does strike me that there are a lot of things coming together that could spell for a chaotic election.

    Foremost among them is the fact that we have a president of the United States who has pretty consistently and aggressively telegraphed his intention not to concede in the face of an electoral defeat, especially if that electoral defeat is of a very narrow margin. And it looks like it probably will be a narrow margin. In all likelihood, the 2020 election is going to turn on the results in probably the three swing states that determined the results in 2016: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The other concern is that if we do fall into an electoral crisis and we start seeing the kinds of challenges to the results that we saw back in year 2000, during Bush v. Gore, then we could really see a meltdown because our contemporary political climate is so polarized. That’s what led me to start asking, what types of federal laws do we have in place? What kind of constitutional procedures do we have in place to right the ship? And what I found is that they just don’t exist.
    I’m not trying to be an alarmist here, but it’s possible to imagine, come January 20, that we don’t have a president. By the terms of the 20th Amendment, Trump ceases to be president at noon on January 20 and [Mike] Pence likewise ceases to be vice president. At this point, by the terms of the presidential succession act of 1947, the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could become acting president, but only if she resigns her House seat. But what if Trump continues to insist that he has been reelected and is the rightful president? Imagine if, come January 20, Trump stages his own inauguration ceremony with Clarence Thomas issuing the oath of office. Then we might have Nancy Pelosi and Trump both claiming to be the commander in chief. This is a world of hurt.
    what does the Constitution and the federal law do in order to secure the peaceful transition of power? And one of the things that I realized is they don’t secure the peaceful succession of power. They presuppose it. They assume that it’s going to happen. So if it doesn’t happen, well, no one knows
    if you have a president who ignores those norms; if you have a party that ignores those norms, that continues to facilitate the rejection of those norms; and if you have a fractured media universe that rewards the president for rejecting those norms, then we’re in a very dangerous situation. The only real way to avoid this is to make sure we don’t enter into this scenario, and the best way to do that is to ensure that he loses decisively in November. That’s the best guarantee. That’s the best way that we can secure the future of a healthy constitutional democracy.
    2020 has been such a whirlwind of disasters, and unprecedented mayhem, that I could see all of this possibly happening.
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-05-2020 at 01:15.
    High Plains Drifter

  25. #835

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Trump would contest the results and legitimacy of the election even if he won. We know this because it's what he did in 2016. There is no situation, win or lose, where he doesn't claim a decisive victory and identify fraud by the opposition.

    Setting aside state Republican suppression and FBI intervention in the leadup to the election, if the election result is to Biden, then on January 20 he simply instructs the Secret Service to escort Mr. Trump and his family off the premises. Then we watch how that unfolds.

    The main concern I have for the post-election scenarios would be how the Republican Party responds to a narrow EC defeat, and whether they would be prepared to cross that bridge with the incumbent. If the Republican Party does not endorse Trump's ravings, he collapses. Humpty Dumpty can't balance on that wall alone.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 06-05-2020 at 02:00.
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  26. #836
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Even if Biden wins by a landslide Trump is going to contest it somehow. He knows that he might get prosecuted for all his shady stuff if he loses the presidency so he will fight tooth and nail to keep it. The big if is whether or not the GOP goes along with him. Which I think they will because if the past 4 years have taught me anything its that there is a very prevalent authoritarian streak among them.


    Also just a mod note: it looks like Biden will reach the required delegate number to clinch the nomination next week as he is only 19 below the threshold. After that I plan on closing this thread and opening a general election thread if there isn't any opposition to that move.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-05-2020 at 03:27.
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  27. #837
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    The most realistic scenario is that someone on Secret Service literally drags him out of the office at 12:01 if he refuses to leave. What happens after that, who knows.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  28. #838

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    The most realistic scenario is that someone on Secret Service literally drags him out of the office at 12:01 if he refuses to leave. What happens after that, who knows.


    To hell with the government, you - you New Dealer!


    Biden was born during the New Deal, at least. And he now reportedly wants to lead an "FDR-style administration."
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  29. #839
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    After that I plan on closing this thread and opening a general election thread if there isn't any opposition to that move.
    None from me
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  30. #840
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Well I wasn't expecting this announcement so soon, thought it would come next week but I guess here we are. I guess votes/delegates were still being counted?

    Anyways, the AP officially announces that Biden has passed the 1,991 delegates needed for the nomination. With that, I am closing this thread and will open a thread for the general election shortly.
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