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Thread: Democrat 2020

  1. #391
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    You could imagine a scenario disrupting their production, something like that. Imagining "what would Saudi Arabia be like if it never had any oil" is speculative fiction transforming the character of Earth and life on it to the beginning.
    Contrast this with selecting a political candidate, like the topic of this thread. That likely involves comparing different scenarios where the different candidates win. All of these scenarios will differ from the real world significantly, some extremely so; no matter who wins, and for many reasons that are relatively independent of who wins. Perhaps you could call the scenarios "speculative fiction" by these standards.
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  2. #392

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Contrast this with selecting a political candidate, like the topic of this thread. That likely involves comparing different scenarios where the different candidates win. All of these scenarios will differ from the real world significantly, some extremely so; no matter who wins, and for many reasons that are relatively independent of who wins. Perhaps you could call the scenarios "speculative fiction" by these standards.
    There's a (metaphysical) difference between assembling data and variables to project outcomes in an abstracted system (this candidate would hire that advisor, that candidate would prioritize holding rallies...) and retroactively adjusting or eliminating observed features to reconstruct an alternative present.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    So New Hampshire was a bit surprising.
    Sanders performed as polling indicated. If you're noticing that the Sandersite received wisdom that Sanders is expanding the base, is unusually popular and activating, or (in the most extreme construction) is leading a grassroots revolution - if you're noticing that this is a flawed view, then you didn't need NH to see it. Entryism skating by on bare pluralities is not mass politics - and that was explicitly everyone's plan from the beginning, contradictions be damned.

    Sanders didn't pull a lot of converts, and many or most of his voters from 2016 didn't even show up (despite increased turnout).



    Now I am really interested to see how Nevada and South Carolina play out.
    Nevada is still a White state, but it will be the first trial of Sanders' secret weapon.

    But hanging over the whole race is the fact that Nevada is a caucus like Iowa and caucuses are becoming lolcows...

    Concerns have been growing that next week’s Nevada caucuses could offer a repeat of the chaos that ensnared the Iowa vote, with Nevada facing many of the same organizational and technical challenges that crippled Iowa’s process.

    Volunteers who will be leading the Feb. 22 caucuses said key information had yet to be shared. There has been no hands-on training with iPads being deployed to caucus sites on Election Day nor opportunities to try out a new “tool” that will be loaded onto the iPads and used during the caucus process.

    Adding to the mix is that Nevada also plans to offer early voting, a complicated step that Iowa did not attempt. That has prompted some confusion about how early voters would be included in the multistage caucus process.

    “This sounds just dangerous, like people are still improvising and making up the rules as they go,” said Doug Jones, a University of Iowa computer scientist and expert on voting technology. “How do they expect to get training done for all the people doing these caucuses?”


    I urge everyone to read this investigation into first-world America. It might be especially interesting to non-Americans:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    American Bottom
    Designed as a bucolic working-class suburb of St. Louis, the nearly all-black town of Centreville now floods with raw sewage every time it rains. “Bring us back some help,” residents say, living through an environmental horror that evokes centuries of official disinterest in black suffering, as well as a future in which the poor are left to suffer in areas made uninhabitable by climate change.

    WALTER JOHNSON

    A pump meant to remove water from Centreville sits broken in a flooded roadside. Image: Walter Johnson

    South of East St. Louis, down in the broad flood plain of the Mississippi known as the American Bottom, there is a little town that is gradually sinking in a flood of human waste. There is just no other way to say it, no other way to begin to tell the story of Centreville, Illinois. If you drove through quickly and did not look very carefully, it might look like any other rural town in this part of the Midwest. Gravel roads lined by storm-torn trees, large lots, small one-story houses, bread-box shaped mailboxes with small red flags out at the ends of driveways. But there are signs of the floods everywhere: abandoned houses surrounded by swampy yards, drainage ditches filled with brackish water, little wads of toilet paper hanging waist-high from the bushes by the side of the road.

    Even a moderate rain can flood the intersections and lowlands of Centreville. When it rains heavily, much of the town is submerged in two or three feet of water. Water wears away at the foundations of homes and shorts out furnaces and hot water heaters. Outside some of the houses in Centreville, you can see three or four generations of ruined appliances lined up in a row. A resident I met last year told me that he had spent most of the winter living in the back room of his house with a space heater running around the clock. Without a functioning furnace or hot water heater, he had turned off the water to the house so the pipes did not freeze, drinking, cooking, and even bathing with bottled water.

    Almost all of the water that surrounds the houses and floods the roads is dangerously contaminated. The sewer system in Centreville works as poorly as the storm drains. Each resident’s yard has a sewer cleanout so sluggish pipes can be cleared with a drain snake—but many of them run backward. Small fountains of raw sewage bubble up into the yards twenty-four hours a day, flowing into fetid sluiceways that run between the houses. Some days, especially in the summer, the whole town smells like an outhouse. And when it rains, and the water begins to rise, the sewage follows the water, out into the drainage ditches and the roadways, across the yards, into the houses. Many of the houses in Centreville, even the best-maintained houses, bow in the middle, where the foundations are gradually sinking into swampy ground.

    It is easy to recognize in Centreville, which is 97 percent black, an outline of the African American past: segregation, rurality, poverty. More than one time I have heard visitors say, “It’s like Mississippi in the 1930s.” And there is something true and revealing about the comparison. But more even than the past, Centreville looks like the future—a future unfolding at the confluence of climate catastrophe, structural racism, infrastructural deterioration, and widespread indifference to black suffering.

    section separator

    Centreville, incorporated in 1957, lies just south of East St. Louis. To the east along the river is Sauget, Illinois—formerly Monsanto, Illinois—where the eponymous (and notorious) chemical company got its start producing, among other things, toxic PCBs. There are still chemical plants in Sauget today, although not much else—some small neighborhoods, and several mostly abandoned roadside malls along Illinois State Highway 3, where the truckers who come and go from the plants keep a couple of greasy spoon diners and several weather-beaten strip clubs in business. Centreville itself is shaped like a horseshoe. The two sides bracket the city of Alorton, the one-time home of the largest aluminum ore processing plant in the United States (Al-or-ton). The cynical deployment of black strikebreakers against the unrepentantly segregated AFL union in the Alorton plant was one of the causes of the 1917 East St. Louis massacre: a mob of thousands of whites killed hundreds of their black neighbors on July 2 that year. They burned thousands of buildings, permanently driving as many as 5,000 African Americans—men, women, and children—across the river to St. Louis.

    Both work and wealth in East St. Louis were mostly controlled by whites through World War II (indeed, the city was briefly governed by the Ku Klux Klan), and Centreville was developed as a small, rural, white residential enclave in the midst of surrounding industry. The city was laid out and built on low-lying land at the far margin of the Mississippi flood plain, bounded on the east by high bluffs and the city of Belleville. By 1960 the city had completed the network of ditches necessary to keep the area dry, and the sewer system had been tied into the pipes that served East St. Louis. Weirdly, incongruously, surreally, there remain today several geodesic houses at the edge of Centreville—architectural studies for Buckminster Fuller’s visionary 1971 plan to rehouse the entire population of East St. Louis in a gigantic thousand-foot dome that would have accommodated as many as 125,000 people.

    By that time, East St. Louis, like virtually every other city in the industrial Midwest, was losing both its industrial base and its white population. By the 1980s, the city had become a byword for black poverty and urban decay. Like many of the surrounding municipalities in what has come to be called Metro East, the city of East St. Louis had always served as more of a legal shell for corporate privilege—low taxes, nonexistent regulation, minimal public services—than a fully functioning city. By the late 1980s, the city’s sewer system was failing, and the city government was being sued by the EPA for misusing federal funds that had been earmarked for its repair.

    In these same years, Centreville became a majority- and then an almost entirely black town. Many of the new residents were first-generation homeowners who moved to Centreville to escape deteriorating conditions elsewhere in the Metro East region. The town was one of the few suburbs in the St. Louis metro area into which working-class blacks of moderate means could move during the 1960s and even into the ’70s and ’80s. Quite a few moved from homes that were slated for destruction in advance of the construction of Interstate 55 through East St. Louis. To this day, residents talk about the sense of safety and solitude they felt when they moved into their new houses—no gangs, no guns, no police, no problems.

    Until the water began to rise. Many of those who moved to Centreville put their life savings into homes that were worth fifteen or twenty thousand dollars when they bought them; their homes are now worth literally ten cents on the dollar of what they paid decades ago. One resident, Vittorio Blaylock, has paid thousands of dollars to have hundreds of thousands of cubic feet of dirt spread over his lot in a futile effort to raise it out of the municipal flood plain; another, Cornelius Bennett, showed me a sheaf of receipts from a plumbing company that, after repeatedly cleaning out the pipes running under his yard, finally told him they would not take any more of his money.

    The residents of Centreville are not wealthy—quite the opposite. The median family income in town is among the lowest of any municipality in the United States, just over $17,000 a year. Many of those who could afford to leave have done so, but a tight-knit remnant hangs on; more than a quarter are elderly. They support one another through the floods. Longtime resident Walter Byrd keeps a flatboat in his yard that he uses to ferry his neighbors when the water gets high. Recently, the residents have begun to organize themselves to take on the shadowy constellation of private interests, semipublic agencies, and municipal authorities that oversee their water and waste—each of which seems to believe the solution to the problem lies anywhere but within the boundaries of their authority. “We have lived here forty-two years,” Hazel Leflore told me, “I can’t even tell you the amount of times we’ve called.” “After the white folks moved, they stopped doing stuff out here,” adds her neighbor Michael McNeal.

    Some date the beginning of the problem to the 1986 completion of Interstate 255, which looped traffic around the southern edge of the Metro East region, and was eventually (in 2002) declared by the Army Corps of Engineers to be impeding the flow of water from Centreville into the Harding Ditch, the drainage canal designed to collect surface water from the American Bottom and carry it to the Mississippi. The situation has only deteriorated in the meantime.

    Water and sewer service in Centreville and several of the surrounding municipalities is (and has been since the 1970s) provided by Commonfields of Cahokia, a nonprofit public utility. It is hard to find out much about Commonfields, which does not maintain a website, but what information is publicly available is not reassuring. In a 2012 federal court case, Commonfields general manager, Dennis Traiteur, Sr., testified in court that “everyone” at Commonfields was “hired for political reasons.” The practice apparently extended to his own son, Dennis Traiteur, Jr., who was hired by Commonfields in 2009 as assistant superintendent, though he was found by the court to have “no experience with wastewater or supervisory skills.” Public watchdogs have documented a litany of other abuses at Commonfields, including the failure to make board meeting accessible to the public and threating to sue members of the public who attend the meetings.

    The poor condition of the water and waste infrastructure is obvious to anyone who cares to look—or who rolls down the window of their car and smells the air on a hot summer day. Roadside drainage ditches, which need to be pitched at a slight angle in order to carry stormwater toward the river, are silted up, and serve instead as small ponds—some are full of algae, some appear to be thickening into tiny enclosed roadside meadows. Many of the huge emergency pumps that are scattered throughout the township show no signs of having functioned for years: their machinery is covered with dust and cobwebs, and water pools around their bases when it rains. In 2009 the Illinois state EPA declared that the Harding Ditch, which drains the American Bottom, contained hazardous levels of fecal coliform. It has become, effectively, an open sewer.

    section separator

    The most recent Centreville flood occurred on January 11, 2020. As it has been dozens of times—perhaps as many as a hundred times—since she has been living in Centreville, Patricia Greenwood’s house was surrounded by water. Greenwood grew up in Centreville, where she moved with her parents in the early 1960s, when I-55 was built through the neighborhood where they lived in East St. Louis. She remembers the early years nostalgically, a beautiful little house surrounded by beautiful trees. Her house is on Piat Place, and in those days the neighborhood was referred to as Piat Orchard.

    As early as the 1980s, she remembers, there were problems with water. She remembers her father borrowing a backhoe from the plant where he worked in East St. Louis to try to dig out the area behind the house so that the water would drain better. But the flooding is much worse today, she says, “much, much much, as many time as you can say much.” The house on Piat is gradually falling down around Greenwood, her husband, Lonnie, and their fifteen-year-old son, Arthur. Five years ago, she walked into one of the rooms in the front of the house to find that the floor had collapsed. Her father and husband went under the house and rebuilt the floor and its supports, but when she walked into the same room not long after, she had the uncanny sense that the walls did not look straight. She walked over and looked down, only to find that the floor of the house was pulling away from the wall. She could see through the crack between the wall and the floor into the muddy swamp below. The house on Piat was gradually shifting off of its foundation.

    The same thing is happening to the house next door, where the Greenwoods’ neighbor Earlie Fuse has rebuilt the washed-out foundation of his home five times, only to see it again undermined by the repeated floods. The Greenwoods worry about Mr. Fuse, but also about where his house will go if it actually breaks free or falls in: Will it take theirs down, too?

    The repeated floods have left behind a residue of black mold that comes up through the floor of the Greenwoods’ house. It rots away the windowsills, tints the glass yellow, and stains the curtains as it crawls up the walls. Mrs. Greenwood washes the curtains with Clorox, but the mold comes back again and again. She’s gone to the Red Cross office in nearby Belleville, and brought home flood cleanup kits. They work for a couple of weeks, and then the smell comes back.

    Mrs. Greenwood, like many of the residents of Centreville, speaks of “the smell” as a force of nature—as something both unpredictable and uncontrollable. It is the smell of raw sewage. It was what drew her into the front room the morning that she discovered that the floor had collapsed, and what keeps her from inviting her family and friends to the house in the way that she once did, for parties and barbecues, before the smell became so frequent and noxious that it stopped seeming as if celebrating or entertaining might be fun. Last April her bathroom backed up—sewage coming out of toilet, sink, and shower—and would not clear. Mr. Greenwood, who was recovering from quintuple bypass surgery, nevertheless cut a hole in the floor of the bathroom and tried to dig down under the house in a futile effort to clear the area around the inundated sewer pipes. Today, the hole in the bathroom floor is covered with a piece of plywood, and there is a constant backwash of sewer water in their shower.

    The disaster response bureaucracy of the state of Illinois considers the events in Centreville to be a more-or-less random series of flash floods rather than a slow-rolling disaster worthy of state intervention. To fit the official understanding of “disaster,” apparently, the damage must be caused by a single, discrete event, rather than being spread across wearying years. In 1993, when the Mississippi River flooded the American Bottom, the mayor of Centreville walked down Piat Place to inspect the damage. When he stopped at the Greenwoods, he remarked on the smell and then moved on. Mrs. Greenwood does not remember anyone from the city or county—or from Commonfields of Cahokia—being on the street since then, although at some point in the past year a candidate for local office stopped by her next-door neighbor’s house to assure him they were going to do something about the flooding. With a Sharpie, the candidate sketched on a piece of printer paper a diagram of how the problem would be fixed, leaving the drawing along with a glossy brochure.

    The Greenwoods all have respiratory problems and constant headaches, and Mrs. Greenwood worries constantly about Arthur. The family lives on a fixed income, and have spent much of what they had on a succession of replacement furnace, hot water heaters, refrigerators, washers, and dryers to replace those ruined by water. “I can’t count how many,” Mrs. Greenwood says. So far, they been able to keep the house and garage patched together enough to keep the roof over their heads, if not much more.

    I have spoken with almost a dozen people in Centreville whose stories are, in broad outline, the same as Mrs. Greenwood’s. They are, to a person, polite in an old-fashioned, country kind of way. They refer to one another as Mr. Byrd and Mrs. Greenwood, and will not say anything more about the smell than that it smells really bad—they are too polite to name the odor that haunts their lives, as if they are worried that visitors might be offended by the words. They stop to talk when they are driving along the road and see one of their neighbors out in the yard. They look out for one another. Recently, they have begun to work with some public interest lawyers—a couple of young black women, Nicole Nelson from nearby O’Fallon, Illinois, and Kalila Jackson from St. Louis, who have assembled a larger team of environmentalists, scientists, and student activists in order to try to sort the flood tide of history into an accounting of legal liability and moral responsibility.

    Asked where she thinks the water and the waste come from, Mrs. Greenwood answers that it comes “from the people above us”—the people who live on the higher ground that surrounds Centreville: the more prosperous suburbs of Belleville, O’Fallon, and Collinsville. In Centreville, the flow of social power, storm water, and even human waste all follow the same course. Poor and working-class black people from the 1960s on found their way to a place where they thought they could get a foothold in the middle class, only to see their dreams washed away by a tide of malfeasance and indifference. Highways planned without regard to their homes; bureaucratic definitions of disaster which define their chronic flooding, suffering, and sickness as acceptable; local “representatives” whose only resource for dealing with the longstanding problems of structural racism, infrastructural deterioration, and environmental catastrophe appears to be boundless cynicism.

    And yet, as tired as they are of hoping that something will change, that someone will care, the residents of Centreville are once again telling their stories. “Bring us back some help,” Mrs. Greenwood told me when I last said goodbye to her, standing in her front yard, “tell them we’re still here.”
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-13-2020 at 05:08.
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  3. #393
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Yes I definitely see Nevada being another crazy night as it was in Iowa, especially after the AP news story you quoted.

    Much has been discussed about the lower than expected turnout. I wonder how many folks just dont want to engage in the primaries but are planning on voting in the general. Im sort of in that camp, as I dont know who I really want to support as my favorite candidate dropped out (Harris) so I dont really care who the Dem is, I just want to beat Trump.
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  4. #394
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    There's a (metaphysical) difference between assembling data and variables to project outcomes in an abstracted system (this candidate would hire that advisor, that candidate would prioritize holding rallies...) and retroactively adjusting or eliminating observed features to reconstruct an alternative present.
    There is certainly a difference, but it is not so obvious that it is one that matters to what we were looking at.

    A better defence of the methodology than that I've provided thus far may require some serious effort. Maybe later...
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Yes I definitely see Nevada being another crazy night as it was in Iowa, especially after the AP news story you quoted.

    Much has been discussed about the lower than expected turnout. I wonder how many folks just dont want to engage in the primaries but are planning on voting in the general. Im sort of in that camp, as I dont know who I really want to support as my favorite candidate dropped out (Harris) so I dont really care who the Dem is, I just want to beat Trump.

    New Hampshire turnout was beyond 2008 and 2016, where is this meme of low turnout coming from?
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  6. #396
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    But wasnt youth turnout lower? I might be conflating stats. But Iowa was definitely disappointing in terms of turnout, but that might be because its a caucus.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    But wasnt youth turnout lower? I might be conflating stats. But Iowa was definitely disappointing in terms of turnout, but that might be because its a caucus.
    NH passed a law in 2018 (took effect in 2019) that required college students to have their car registered in the state (or other proof of your domicile) to be considered a resident. It cut down on the youth portion.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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  8. #398

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    There is certainly a difference, but it is not so obvious that it is one that matters to what we were looking at.

    A better defence of the methodology than that I've provided thus far may require some serious effort. Maybe later...
    Maybe an example in practice.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    But wasnt youth turnout lower? I might be conflating stats. But Iowa was definitely disappointing in terms of turnout, but that might be because its a caucus.
    Maybe we shouldn't leap to extrapolate low turnout for 50 states from partial results of a single state.

    Also relevant, the performance provides no evidence for Sanders' theory that he can mobilize youth turnout and draw in disaffected independent non-voters to expand the electorate, but we still have many more data points to register. And the theory was always better oriented to the general election environment than to the more bounded Democratic base.


    In the general I have a feeling that Sanders will focus on messaging to moderates and older generations in addition to jacking that youth turnout. He CAN sound moderate or pander to specific demographics when he wants to.

    For instance:

    Sanders in talks with DNC to headline big-dollar fundraiser

    Bernie Sanders is in talks with the Democratic National Committee to headline the first of two party fundraisers, where he will likely appear before the same big-dollar donors that he has repeatedly railed against on the campaign trail.

    A DNC official confirmed the conversations on Wednesday. They come as Sanders’ relationship with the party’s establishment takes on greater importance following a victory in Tuesday’s New Hampshire presidential primary and an essential tie for first place last week in Iowa’s caucuses.

    While establishment leaders have raised alarms about Sanders’ far-left candidacy in recent weeks, the strong finishes in the two opening contests of the 2020 primary season all but ensure he will be a force in party politics at least through the national convention in July.

    Raising money for the party will be an especially urgent task in 2020. Whoever wins the primary will inherit a party that is $6.5 million in debt and has been outraised by over 6 to 1 by President Donald Trump and the Republican National Committee, who collectively pulled in more than $600 million last year alone.

    As a condition of gaining access to the party’s voter file, all 2020 contenders — Sanders included — are required to headline at least two fundraisers for the DNC’s “Unity Fund,” which will go to the eventual nominee.

    Sanders, the only presidential candidate who has yet to do an event for the party, has spent years railing against big-dollar fundraisers. His victory speech in New Hampshire was no exception.
    As the headliner at one of their events, he will not only be courting big-dollar donors he has criticized, but he will also be doing so to raise money for an organization that he and his supporters have called corrupt.
    He's not an idiot or (that big of an) asshole.


    Also, Jewy things like this should make him more endearing. Have you seen it?
    https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...20-town-halls/
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  9. #399
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    I am not certain, but operating from an anecdotal sample of about a half dozen under 25's in my family and their friend groups, the youth do NOT seem truly captured by this nomination process to date.

    I think it was comparatively easy for youth to avoid Clinton in favor of Sanders in the immediate post-Obama nomination process. 2016 was a year for outsiders, more or less, and such tend to appeal to the disaffected such as the Trump deplorables and to the younger crowd who tend toward the idealistic and toward major change. Those inclined towards the dem set of policies and preferences had either an establishment choice or an outsider -- and the rest of the field was never really involved and were quickly shunted aside. Made for a nice appealing horse-race that got a fair amount of media play.

    This time around, the Dems are still in the throws of what the GOP was doing in 2016 -- winnowing a huge field of potential choices down. As the field narrows, perhaps we shall then see a candidate capture the youthful element of the potential dem voter base. I think it is too early to dismiss the youth factor yet -- I just don't think they are finding anything compelling enough to bother about as yet.
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  10. #400

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Polls all seem to be coming up Sanders so far.




    If Sanders makes a few sops to pacify the squishy moderates in the electorate he can grab easy majorities all the way down. BTW, the big-dollar fundraiser stuff he also did in 2016, because he's not a wingnut.

    In a similar vein, Sanders also has a presidential campaign to run. “The truth is there are many people in this country who have money but also believe in social justice,” Sanders told the crowd at the Beverly Hills fundraiser.
    And to think Warren was recently attacked as a sellout and flipflopper for acknowledging the same reality. Smh



    In good news, an appeals court blocked Trump's Medicaid cuts!
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-14-2020 at 21:30.
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  11. #401
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I am not certain, but operating from an anecdotal sample of about a half dozen under 25's in my family and their friend groups, the youth do NOT seem truly captured by this nomination process to date.

    I think it was comparatively easy for youth to avoid Clinton in favor of Sanders in the immediate post-Obama nomination process. 2016 was a year for outsiders, more or less, and such tend to appeal to the disaffected such as the Trump deplorables and to the younger crowd who tend toward the idealistic and toward major change. Those inclined towards the dem set of policies and preferences had either an establishment choice or an outsider -- and the rest of the field was never really involved and were quickly shunted aside. Made for a nice appealing horse-race that got a fair amount of media play.

    This time around, the Dems are still in the throws of what the GOP was doing in 2016 -- winnowing a huge field of potential choices down. As the field narrows, perhaps we shall then see a candidate capture the youthful element of the potential dem voter base. I think it is too early to dismiss the youth factor yet -- I just don't think they are finding anything compelling enough to bother about as yet.
    In 2016 Bernie seemed like a lone voice crying in the wilderness, and his age made him into the sort of alternative role model young people love. Similar effect to Corbyn. Now, however, Bernie is an old man with a bad heart, as opposed to an older man, and he's no longer alone with Warren and "the squad" crowding him in a space he's been used to occupying alone. Clinton was also a charisma vacuum, and you shouldn't underestimate the ability of your opponent to mobilise your base.
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  12. #402
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    In 2016 Bernie seemed like a lone voice crying in the wilderness, and his age made him into the sort of alternative role model young people love. Similar effect to Corbyn. Now, however, Bernie is an old man with a bad heart, as opposed to an older man, and he's no longer alone with Warren and "the squad" crowding him in a space he's been used to occupying alone. Clinton was also a charisma vacuum, and you shouldn't underestimate the ability of your opponent to mobilise your base.
    Probably also explains why there was a 35 point drop for Bernie in NH from 2016 to 2020.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Probably also explains why there was a 35 point drop for Bernie in NH from 2016 to 2020.
    If the poll images in my post above are representative, then Sanders could very well seize the advantage in any head-to-head race. While his numbers in a divided field don't have much legitimacy, the same conditions do make him a favorite to coast ahead while the other candidates are eliminated - at which point he should, in theory, begin carrying majorities.

    If this theory is correct, he actually has more baseline support than he did in 2016.

    Let's watch how it plays out.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Bernie definitely profits from a divided "moderate" field. Less than 4,000 votes separated Bernie and Pete in NH. Bloomberg got almost 5,000 votes even though he wasnt even on the ballot. Had those people voted for Pete, he would have won. Or if Steyer's folk (all 10k of them) voted for Pete.. If Bernie does win the nomination, it will be because people like Steyer who despite polling really low are still in the race because of vanity.

    I think we are going to see exactly what happened to the GOP in 2016 happen again. Trump in the 2016 primary had a plurality and that is what I imagine will repeat itself.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Bernie definitely profits from a divided "moderate" field. Less than 4,000 votes separated Bernie and Pete in NH. Bloomberg got almost 5,000 votes even though he wasnt even on the ballot. Had those people voted for Pete, he would have won. Or if Steyer's folk (all 10k of them) voted for Pete.. If Bernie does win the nomination, it will be because people like Steyer who despite polling really low are still in the race because of vanity.

    I think we are going to see exactly what happened to the GOP in 2016 happen again. Trump in the 2016 primary had a plurality and that is what I imagine will repeat itself.
    According to the Yougov poll I've referred to a couple of times, source of the charts above, Warren beats every candidate in a head-to-head and ties Sanders. Same with Sanders (though he ties Biden in a head-to-head). Buttigieg and Klobuchar get swamped. If Sanders does well up to Super Tuesday then there may no longer be much of a moderate vote to consolidate around any survivor (except, ideally, Warren).

    But fuck, Bloomberg hired himself a good team. Watch this ad (I wish we could embed Twitter videos).
    https://twitter.com/MikeBloomberg/st...69357471551488
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  16. #406
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Personally Id like to see the primary between just Biden and Sanders. Using RCP polling averages, they are the only ones who can actually win in the states where it matters. I ignore national polling because only the electoral college matters so who cares if a million more people vote Dem in California.

    In Wisconsin, only Biden and Sanders beat Trump. Same for Nevada. In Florida, only Biden beats Trump (with Sanders at a statistical tie). In North Carolina, Biden beats Trump and so does Sanders, but barely. And in Arizona, its the same thing, except that Sanders gets shellacked. And everyone seems to lose in Iowa. But the pattern is pretty clear: both Warren and Pete get regularly beaten by Trump in the states that are critical for winning.

    To say that I am nervous about this election is an understatement. I really wish Bloomberg wasnt running, but I agree, his team is good.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Personally Id like to see the primary between just Biden and Sanders. Using RCP polling averages, they are the only ones who can actually win in the states where it matters. I ignore national polling because only the electoral college matters so who cares if a million more people vote Dem in California.

    In Wisconsin, only Biden and Sanders beat Trump. Same for Nevada. In Florida, only Biden beats Trump (with Sanders at a statistical tie). In North Carolina, Biden beats Trump and so does Sanders, but barely. And in Arizona, its the same thing, except that Sanders gets shellacked. And everyone seems to lose in Iowa. But the pattern is pretty clear: both Warren and Pete get regularly beaten by Trump in the states that are critical for winning.

    To say that I am nervous about this election is an understatement. I really wish Bloomberg wasnt running, but I agree, his team is good.
    Choosing a candidate on the basis of pre-nomination head-to-head polling with Trump that has always tracked name recognition and position in national polling is an exercise in recursive tautology. If you look at the 2016 polling on head-to-heads with Trump he improved his numbers in every battleground state by the end. Polling is by nature a cross-section of a time and place, a snapshot. Expect it to change over time. I am not aware of any statistical evidence in political science that would support choosing Biden because of favorable head-to-heads that precede even the first primaries. And Biden of course has a demonstrable problem with sustaining his polling in practice, which seems like more relevant evidence toward electability than anything else.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-18-2020 at 04:59.
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  18. #408
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    While I agree that picking a candidate solely on the basis on who is polling better on head-to-heads, I do believe they can be good "temperature readings" on how the electorate feels about a particular candidate. And yes I do wish those polls were more recent and I eagerly await new ones as I am sure there are significant changes.

    That being said, I am not going to ignore potential warning signs that certain candidates might be more vulnerable in the battleground states than others.

    Its all about 270. Nothing else matters. Trump could lose by 10 million votes but if he can still get to 270 he wins, and no amount of crying about the electoral college is going to change that.
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  19. #409

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Its all about 270. Nothing else matters. Trump could lose by 10 million votes but if he can still get to 270 he wins, and no amount of crying about the electoral college is going to change that.
    Correct, but the logic relies on the existence of robust temperature readings and should acknowledge future effects of nomination and campaigning to be pragmatic. Have pre-election season polls ever been empirically validated for predictive value?

    Imagine the irony of mourning the loss of electable Joe Biden because Democrats won't vote for him. (And his candidacy, btw, smothered the clearly superior Harris, Booker, etc. in the cradle).
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  20. #410
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    I dont disagree with you, if future polling in those states change I will happily change my opinion.

    And I definitely agree about Biden. I really wish he didnt run. I like and admire him as a person, but I think, as you said, he stole oxygen from better candidates like Harris, Castro, and Booker. Imagine that the primary began with the most diverse primary field ever and has turned into a primary with almost none.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    It wasnt a primary for up and comers to begin with.

    The presence of three big beasts; long runners with large followings persuing thier last chance at the office despite being clear past thier prime, it was inevitable they would monopolize the spotlight the fresh faces desperately needed.

    The only one who didnt get drowned out early seems to be buttigeig, and he seems to be the candidate the DNC has pushed as an establishment backup should Biden go bust mid race. Not that he's looking all that good right now; he's in danger of being smothered by the suprise entrance of a forth big beast.
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  22. #412
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Bloomberg's money has achieved some results -- and not just in poaching staff.

    Bloomberg qualifies for next Dem debate
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  23. #413

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I dont disagree with you, if future polling in those states change I will happily change my opinion.
    My point is that you're trying to extract a certain predictive value that probably isn't there beneath the surface.

    Look at the polling for Clinton vs. Trump and Sanders vs. Trump in 2016. In March-April 2016, the period in which Sanders had any hope of securing a lead over Clinton, both candidates had some of their best-ever leads over Trump. Sanders' lead was bigger than Clinton's. That doesn't mean he was more electable at the time, since he was not in fact nominated. There would have been no reason to believe that Clinton's polling would narrow again but Sanders' wouldn't. You should also note that against both candidates throughout primary season, Trump had the same floor in the high 30s, which is probably more suggestive than the spread on any given day.
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ders-5565.html

    Speaking of spread, let's look at the actual polling for the 2020 general. If you refer to the post-Iowa polls (there are three of them) then the spread between Democratic candidates against Trump is 47-51 vs. 43-45.

    On the basis of even this polling, the candidates are indistinguishable from each other against Trump. If you think these polls can tell you something about Election Day performance, they are telling you that the Democratic candidates are tied with one another. The tautologies of electability are just that, axiomatic circular reasoning with no independent validity.

    If you still want to lean on these matchups, you can't do more than project Trump to have a ceiling of 45% in the general. Disaggregating that tentative projection to the state level will be entirely unattainable for a while. Trends in Trump's state-level approval may be more instructive than his head-to-head polling against hypothetical opponents.

    Polling in one context (i.e. candidate vs. candidate) cannot responsibly be extrapolated to a different context (nominee vs. nominee). This is even more the case with state-level polls that are fewer in number and have higher margins of error. If you were presenting some kind of well-developed theory backed by data, that would be one thing, but to reason along the lines of 'Klobuchar is ipso facto more electable than Buttigieg because she polls 1% higher in matchups as of now' is fallacious. You just can't do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Bloomberg's money has achieved some results -- and not just in poaching staff.
    His poaching staff probably cost Democrats a special election in Vermont Connecticut a month ago. A political newcomer was running for a state assembly seat, but Bloomberg hired her campaign manager out from under her less than 3 weeks before the election and she lost by 79 votes (1.6%). I mean, it doesn't affect the legislative math - Dems hold 3/5 of the seats - but it's got to sting the contender who got screwed by a distant, indifferent, behemoth. It's a veritably-Lovecraftian tale.

    The qualifications have differed for each debate, and the party has consistently erred on the side of having (too) many candidates on stage. With his current polling it's not unreasonable that Bloomberg should have an appearance. I expect he gets savaged by a united front.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-19-2020 at 01:04. Reason: sloppy
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  24. #414
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    ...If you still want to lean on these matchups, you can't do more than project Trump to have a ceiling of 45% in the general. Disaggregating that tentative projection to the state level will be entirely unattainable for a while. Trends in Trump's state-level approval may be more instructive than his head-to-head polling against hypothetical opponents.
    Reasonable. As you note, it is way too early to predict the state-by-state likelihoods on a head to head basis -- at least until the field of Dems narrows substantially. Trump's 'approval' rating state-by-state is probably the best yardstick for the moment.
    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    His poaching staff probably cost Democrats a special election in Vermont Connecticut a month ago. A political newcomer was running for a state assembly seat, but Bloomberg hired her campaign manager out from under her less than 3 weeks before the election and she lost by 79 votes (1.6%). I mean, it doesn't affect the legislative math - Dems hold 3/5 of the seats - but it's got to sting the contender who got screwed by a distant, indifferent, behemoth. It's a veritably-Lovecraftian tale.
    The NPR and CNN analysts I hear talking about this are having mixed reactions. They do NOT like his stealing key staff at a crucial juncture in that campaign but are finding it hard to fault the political staffers who are taking offers for some of the biggest paychecks they will earn in their careers. I suspect a lot of the lasting reaction will hinge on how well Bloomberg does and how accepting Dem rank-and-file are of his candidacy. I get a sense of "we'll see how things are in a month" from those analysts.
    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    The qualifications have differed for each debate, and the party has consistently erred on the side of having (too) many candidates on stage. With his current polling it's not unreasonable that Bloomberg should have an appearance. I expect he gets savaged by a united front.
    As he should be. If you are going to jump in late and attempt to pass the other racers as they come out of the back stretch, you have to expect them to try to keep you outside and block the inside line as a group. Bloomberg either proves he can hang...or doesn't.

    I should also note, however, that the next few weeks are just as much of a make or break for Biden as they are for Bloomberg. "Uncle Joe" hasn't exactly covered himself in laurel so far.
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  25. #415

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    We all know this, but to reinforce the message:

    Regular Democrats Just Aren’t Worried About Bernie

    But polls of Democratic voters show nothing of the sort. Among ordinary Democrats, Sanders is strikingly popular, even with voters who favor his rivals. He sparks less opposition—in some cases far less—than his major competitors. On paper, he appears well positioned to unify the party should he win its presidential nomination.

    So why all the talk of civil war? Because Sanders is far more divisive among Democratic elites—who prize institutional loyalty and ideological moderation—than Democratic voters. The danger is that by projecting their own anxieties onto rank-and-file Democrats, party insiders are exaggerating the risk of a schism if Sanders wins the nomination, and overlooking the greater risk that the party could fracture if they engineer his defeat.

    Strange as it sounds, Sanders may be the least polarizing candidate in the presidential field, at least according to surveys of ordinary Democrats. A Monmouth University poll last week found not only that Sanders’s favorability rating among Democrats nationally—71 percent—was higher than his five top rivals’, but also that his unfavorability rating—19 percent—was tied for second lowest. Sanders’s net favorability rating was six points higher than Elizabeth Warren’s, 16 points higher than Joe Biden’s, 18 points higher than Pete Buttigieg’s, 23 points higher than Amy Klobuchar’s, and a whopping 40 points higher than that of Michael Bloomberg, whom more than a third of Democratic voters viewed unfavorably. (By contrast, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn—whom Sanders’s critics often cite as a cautionary tale—enjoyed the support of only 56 percent of his own party members in the months leading up to December’s British election.)

    A Quinnipiac poll earlier this month found similarly favorable results for Sanders. Among Democrats nationally, only Warren enjoyed higher net favorability ratings; on that measure, Sanders outpaced Biden, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg. (The pollsters didn’t ask about Klobuchar.) And according to a recent USA Today/IPSOS survey, Sanders is the candidate who Democrats say best shares their values.
    While socialism is still a relatively unpopular label overall, polling repeatedly indicates that Sanders is treated by voters as sui generis. To riff off Pannonian on Blair, Sanders repackages left rhetoric as center-left rhetoric, and uses that center-left rhetoric as cover for left policies. Republicans would blow their loads on the socialism angle during a general campaign against Sanders, but Sanders has a deft and appeasing counter:

    "In many respects, we are a socialist society today. ... Donald Trump, before he was president, as a private businessperson, he received $800 million in tax breaks and subsidies to build luxury housing in New York. ... The difference between my socialism and Trump's socialism is I believe the government should help working families, not billionaires."

    He continued: "I believe that health care is a human right. I believe we should raise the minimum wage to a living wage of $15 an hour. I believe, in fact, that the rich must start paying their fair share of taxes when you have massive levels of income and wealth inequality."


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    Last edited by Montmorency; 02-19-2020 at 22:09.
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  26. #416
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    There's a significant difference between democratic socialism and socialism, Montmorency, it's clearly not the same. Unfortunately a lot of the voters, particularly those who don't vote Democratic, do not know the difference, and hence portray the Democratic party under one big "communist" brush.

    Also ironic is that Democratic is blue and Republican (socialist red) is red.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    New update - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-led-them-all/

    Sanders leading - but a big problem lies ahead. Very probable he will not get a complete majority, only a plurality, and it's very possible the Super Delegates will sway the election to either Biden / Buttigieg / Bloomberg. Which would cause an absolute disaster.
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    There's a significant difference between democratic socialism and socialism, Montmorency, it's clearly not the same. Unfortunately a lot of the voters, particularly those who don't vote Democratic, do not know the difference, and hence portray the Democratic party under one big "communist" brush.

    Also ironic is that Democratic is blue and Republican (socialist red) is red.
    Since Warren entered the race Sanders has been espousing more overtly socialist policies. Reading a recent BBC article the comments of some of his supporters it was apparent they didn't apprehend the difference. It's also worth pointing out that American socialists have never had to live under a socialist government or even live next door to them, unless they're post-Iron Curtain immigrants.

    IF Sanders actually wants to win he'll need to do it as a social democrat because a socialist isn't going anywhere fast in the US - hell look at what just happened in the UK.
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  29. #419

    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    There's a significant difference between democratic socialism and socialism, Montmorency, it's clearly not the same. Unfortunately a lot of the voters, particularly those who don't vote Democratic, do not know the difference, and hence portray the Democratic party under one big "communist" brush.

    Also ironic is that Democratic is blue and Republican (socialist red) is red.
    Republicans have portrayed Democrats as socialists for a century. Thankfully or not, voters don't tend to be educated enough to wonder why Sanders sounds like a thorough social democrat of the old school.

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    New update - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-led-them-all/

    Sanders leading - but a big problem lies ahead. Very probable he will not get a complete majority, only a plurality, and it's very possible the Super Delegates will sway the election to either Biden / Buttigieg / Bloomberg. Which would cause an absolute disaster.
    Again, how is it going to happen that way?

    1. Sanders gets 1/3 i Nevada and smashes the competition, leading to a victory in South Carolina, leading to a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday, leading to an easy majority through the rest of the primaries.
    2. Even if that doesn't happen and Sanders ends the primaries with a leading plurality, one of two possibilities unfolds:
    2.a. He has a strong plurality and after some conference regarding staffing decisions and campaign strategy he is duly awarded the nomination.
    2.b. The candidates who hold the majority of pledged delegates award them to someone in exchange for influence and that candidate now has the majority of delegates and is duly awarded the nomination.
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  30. #420
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    Default Re: Democrat 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    1. Sanders gets 1/3 i Nevada and smashes the competition, leading to a victory in South Carolina, leading to a majority of delegates on Super Tuesday, leading to an easy majority through the rest of the primaries.
    2. Even if that doesn't happen and Sanders ends the primaries with a leading plurality, one of two possibilities unfolds:
    2.a. He has a strong plurality and after some conference regarding staffing decisions and campaign strategy he is duly awarded the nomination.
    2.b. The candidates who hold the majority of pledged delegates award them to someone in exchange for influence and that candidate now has the majority of delegates and is duly awarded the nomination.
    But the superdelegates have to vote after the first round. So even if the pledged delegates coalesce after the first round, the impression will be based around how the superdelegates voted.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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