Various Imperial Reflexes (Iran and Venezuela Thread)

[Strike For The South]

Oh, absolutely. The UK misjudged its place and had their foreign policy overridden, while America can technically still act in the face of even unified great power resistance. American empire is still kicking, and we can still enjoy paying an enormous price to nudge the world's levers.

However, I do caution that aspects of the latest adventurism have the potential, depending on the precise nature and extent of the overreach, to outright degrade America's imperial standing and capacity to the point where we don't even notice the climax. It depends on what the current administration hopes for, or intends to achieve or to do. Hopefully all of it is more reckless posturing in the vein of 2017 "Rocket Man", but we can't afford to be complacent. Is it just launching some missiles? If it's just launching some missiles or dropping some bombs, we can physically do that; the degradation is largely to our standing is part and part-and-parcel of the steady long-term damage Trump is doing to American power, but nothing like a sharp knockback as in Suez. But do they want to go so far as a punitive ground invasion of Iran? Is it regime change?! Do they want to seize Iran's ports in the strait, or its oil terminals like Kharg? My concern with a half-assed ground or naval invasion is that I believe it carries the distinct possibility of, essentially, defeat. Iran is a much tougher nut to crack than Iraq, and certainly we're strong enough to do it if we mobilize our whole economy and military for the purpose. But if it's "120000" troops, or a couple of carrier groups with an attitude of 'We'll be home before the Fourth of July'? We're back to Korea or Vietnam-level casualty figures on a much shorter timescale due to incompetence and hubris. Massive civilian devastation further strengthens the case for China and Russia to break the international order from enabling 'Yankee aggression', likely peeling off much of Europe (don't expect many friends in this fight).

I think Bolton truly believes that a military action will topple the regime in Iran. IMO, Any line of thinking that supposes the people will rise with the foreign invader borders on the criminally stupid but here we are. The line of thinking is that by crippling the oil that the people will be starved into revoultion, this is what the war hawks actually think. Iran would be a quagmire of the highest order and the American people will not stand for any sort of real total mobilization.

Being stupid is one thing, being impetuous is one thing, Being stupid and impetuous is a recipe for disaster. One has to remember that both Pompeo and Bolton subscribe to the theory that we didn't try hard enough in Vietnam. That they were stabbed in the back by the politicians at home. Remind you of anything?

Though not objectively the worst-case scenario, if only because it spares the most lives, my greatest fear is subtly that limited-objective scenario where the US tries to seize ports or oil terminals with Marines and carriers, just to wave its dick around. So close to the coast we would finally be putting to the test the theory that aircraft carriers are now expensive obsolete relics, floating coffins. If Iran can sink or even badly damage a carrier with missiles or small craft, killing hundreds of sailors, then the world sees America swaggering in like a drunk cowboy stereotype and receiving a justifiable black eye in turn. Even worse if the Marines cannot achieve through combined arms the securing of even a limited territorial objective.

So war is chaos and anything could happen. Maybe I channeling my inner Jellicoe but I just don't see how anyone could sink a carrier without a similar blue water CG in the area. Sinking the carrier would at the very least entail sinking the destroyers and the scoring enough direct hits to actually make the thing go under. There is no Arizona style Magazine explosion that can happen.

Even if it did happen. The drunk Cowboy has 8 more and a sunk carrier would give them reason to use them.

I think that's a real and serious possibility with this administration and this scenario. And it would be something analogous to Britain's Suez overreach - but much worse for everyone. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall..."

And think about this: what if the administration intends substantive military action toward Iran and Venezuela simultaneously? They could honestly be that stupid/delusional.

In those scenarios, we may already be in that imperial epilogue, and the consequences of not realizing it are much greater than a mostly loss of prestige for a has-been. It has reverberations on a civilizational scale for the struggles of this century.

So my comic is an extended excuse for a "hold my beer" joke, pretty much.

We agree here man, I fully expect this whole thing to collapse in on itself like a dying star. We have learned nothing since 2003.

Here's something fun: back in 2002 the US did a war game exercise that simulated a war with Iran and the general playing on the Iranian side managed to destroy the American fleet in just a couple of days. Of course the general in charge of the exercise didn't like the results and he ordered that the whole thing be restarted and scripted so that the US would be ensured victory.

Von Ripper sending all his small civilian craft to ram the Navy vessels is something that would be noticed. Publications liken this to a suprise Cole style attack, which would be true if it were 1 or 2 not the 000s he had. Not that he didn't expose anything, just worth pointing out,