Thanks!
With this strategy I produced nothing but ninja's in Totomi for the first 5 turns. I took Owari turn 2 so eventually I caught up on troop production doing OwarI+Totomi each turn, but it's still an awkward start. I had some improved farms in Kyushu but that's about it. It's probably stronger, and surely more reliable to just build up more income, troop quality, and troops, before going into ninja's later. However, killing off all other clans with ninja's in the mid-/lategame is relatively easy, makes for uninteresting campaigns. The one I decribed above went just that way: I killed off 6 of the clans with Ninja's (Oda died in battle somewhere), and even killed Takeda a second time after a resurgence led by Shingen. I wasn't even close to owning half of the map, so it was quite a grind vs. the Rebels to finish that. I kind of regret not stopping with the Hojo, or maybe Hojo + 1 other strong clan in the midgame (like you did with the Mori).
The early game is exciting though, I never tried this before either, just figured "hey, I don't just have a discount, I start with 2 ninja's and a ninja house already". I think it's definitely a more unique opening strategy for Imagawa. And when you do get Hojo's or Shimazu's lands, that makes for a very different (and easier) campaign of conquest through regular armies.
More info on the odds: You can have 7 ninja's in position before Hojo's heir comes of age, or 6 when you go for Shimazu. You could add another ninja house and improve your odds further. Adding a Ninja House in Hizen can increase the ninja count to 10 for Hojo, or 9 for Shimazu, for a cost of 850 total. Adding a Castle + Ninja House in Mikawa or Suruga only allows for 1 extra ninja on the Hojo attempt (cost: 800). Doing the same in Chikugo or Chikuzen allows for 2 extra ninja's on the Shimazu attempt (cost: 950). I don't think there's any way to do both (add Ninja House in Hizen AND another region). Even adding 1 is very costly.
The Honor 0 ninja's have a 7% chance on either daimyo, and according to my high school level understanding of maths that amounts to the following chances of success:
- 6 Ninja = 35%
- 7 Ninja = 40%
- 8 Ninja = 44%
- 9 Ninja = 48%
- 10 Ninja = 52%
If that's correct it's quite unreliable even with another Ninja House in Hizen. And when the clan dies I don't think you're guaranteed to get their lands. I'm not sure how that works.
Edit:
Khan of Steppe demonstrates another interesting use for agents in his Imagawa campaign, using Shinobi on recently lost regions to cause Loyalist revolts, a.k.a. spawning free armies out of thin air! =]
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