@Beskar
Is the "Fun-O-Meter" a British thing?
The number is growing partly because of a dramatic increase in testing. New York has cumulatively tested 22,000 people, including more than 7,500 in the past day, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said.
HOLD UP
1. So the authorities previously said that by the end of the week they would be testing up to 7000 a day. They've already exceeded that target?
2. The Reuters article I linked recently reported a cumulative 60000 tests performed in the United States by Tuesday.
3. Assuming that on Thursday at the time of reporting the cumulative number of tests performed remained under 100000, then New York State, representing 6% of the American population, has conducted up to 1/3 of all COVID-19 tests in this country to date.
Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
Alternatively, other national leaders should be burned in effigy.
There's also:
Governor Cuomo
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/statu...10734033670145
https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/statu...23814297915393
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
If he continues to manage the outbreak the way a person in leadership should, guess who's a strong candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2024Damn, I guess Governor Cuomo really stepped up. You have to hand it to him.
High Plains Drifter
I read last night that 10 counties represent ~90% of all testing in the US so far, which seems crazy at this point. Read this as well.
I was just out for a walk about the neighborhood, early afternoon local. First time outside since last week. I was shocked at how much foot activity there is on the streets, perhaps even more than is typical. A few parents with kids, but not many sub-thirties overall. No more than a third of people masked (not counting service employees), which may be a good or a bad sign depending on how one looks at it.
Some establishments closed. Clothing, dental, insurance, you expect that. Restaurants of course open for pick-up. But another surprise was just how many places are active. Subways (sandwich chain) was closed, but Verizon was open. Bike hardware, liquor, glasses, dry cleaner, even hairdresser stores all open!
I wonder how the situation will develop into the spring.
Edit: Gotta police those surfaces, most significant transmission vector. So I used a hand covering to open doors. But see, habit is hard to break - leaving one shop I absent-mindedly pushed open the door with the uncovered hand.
I bought some takeout from a Chinese place. A year ago, lunch specials were ~$6.50 (including tax). Recently they've been $8. I was a little sheepish, but also disappointed, when they charged the same today. I somehow expected their prices to be discounted.
I'll affect a diplomatic disposition and offer that we have had enough of New Yorkers in presidential politics lately.
Amazons = coronavirus
This is gonna get sexy.
Tappan Zee replacement. It is done.
Last edited by Montmorency; 03-20-2020 at 20:48.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Holy shit, I missed this from the morning. I guess most New Yorkers have.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/new-...from-home.html
Gov. Andrew Cuomo ordered nonessential businesses to keep 100% of their workforce at home.
He also put in place stringent new restrictions on New Yorkers starting Sunday as the state grapples with the worst coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.
Cuomo said food delivery qualifies as an essential service.Well, now I know. And knowing is half the battle.“When I talk about the most drastic action we can take, this is the most drastic action we can take,” Cuomo said at a press conference in Albany. Cases across the state surged by 2,950 overnight to 7,102, he said. “This is not life as usual. Accept it. Realize it and deal with it.”
Cuomo acknowledged that the restrictions will force businesses to close and people to lose their jobs, adding that he’s suspending evictions across the state for 90 days.
“We’re all in quarantine now. We’re all in various levels of quarantine and it’s hard,” he said.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Thanks for the update Monty. Studies have shown that people need exposure to the outside to maintain mental health anyway.
What surprises me about your post is the number of establishments still open. On one hand I could see how impractical it would be to enforce non-essential businesses to close in NYC, but on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.
I would say treat every door like the bathroom door at an Olive Garden, just use a paper towel to open and close as needed to prevent direct contact.
Maybe we will see the return of the handkerchief into society?
Wow, and I was joking. I thought you guys only named bridges according to their connecting streets or Revolutionary War figures.Tappan Zee replacement. It is done.
When you see the folks over at Fox News slamming the tranny into hard reverse, you know something is afootbut on the other hand public opinion regarding the virus has swung rapidly over the past week with a majority of people now feeling very concerned about the virus.
And with the virus now reaching into the poorer areas of the world with far less medical resources, like Africa, S. America, Central America, we'll soon see whether the reporting since this all began was just "hype"
Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-20-2020 at 22:59.
High Plains Drifter
What is the UK government doing in terms of relief? Substituting lost wages like Denmark?
Here are the Democratic and Republican relief proposals set beside each other:
https://financialservices.house.gov/...umentID=406440
https://www.cbpp.org/blog/senate-gop...sly-inadequate
Never stop pointing out the political pathologies that brought us here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/u...-supplies.html
As reported cases of the virus in the United States have soared, Mr. Trump, who is known to recruit input from a variety of outside advisers, has been getting conflicting advice. The proliferating number of private sector voices with direct access to the president and his top advisers — notably his son-in-law and adviser, Jared Kushner — has resulted in a chaotic process.
The president’s advisers say they see the role of the federal government as a facilitator, as opposed to the chief producer or a national governor. They have tried to encourage states to get by with what they can, suggesting there will be support from the federal government but that this should not be the first option.
In practice, the administration has been trying to use the provision to jawbone companies into taking voluntary action while holding over them the possibility that the federal government would intervene, according to administration officials familiar with the state of play.
“We’re actually encouraged that the partnership with the private sector can meeting many of these needs,” said Marc Short, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief of staff, on Friday morning in a discussion with reporters.https://newrepublic.com/article/1569...takes-pandemic
Congressional testimony earlier [last] week featured an illuminating exchange between Representative Andy Harris, a Republican and medical doctor, and Robert Redfield, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Harris mainly wanted to use his time questioning the officials who were testifying before Congress to attack a Democratic proposal to lower drug costs for people on Medicare (Harris worries it would stifle “innovation” in the lucrative world of vaccine manufacturing) and to praise the superior ability of the private sector to handle such crises.
The problem, though, was that the private sector hasn’t yet done anything to slow down the virus. “Quest and LabCorp now are geared up to do [coronavirus tests],” Harris asked. “Could they have geared up sooner?”
“As a clinician like yourself,” Redfield said in his answer, “I guess I anticipated that the private sector would have engaged and helped develop it for the clinical side.” He finished his response with more bewilderment: “I can tell you, having lived through the last eight weeks, I would have loved the private sector to be fully engaged eight weeks ago.”
Here were two men wondering aloud why reality had failed to conform to their ideology. Where was the private sector, exactly, during these eight weeks? How odd that these companies, whose only responsibility is to their shareholders, had failed to make up for the incompetence of this administration.
Meanwhile:
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
For all our lives, there are very few people we will ever be as psychologically intimate with as we have become with Donald Trump.
Last edited by Montmorency; 03-21-2020 at 02:32.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Not only the responses to the virus, but also cutting funding for the health service as a matter of ideology. Remember Furunculus arguing his Brexit guru's idea of reducing state spending to x% of the economy? And my pointing out that the dream "Singapore-style economy" doesn't work for a country bigger than a city state, and government ministers actually going further than my warnings and saying that the UK does not need a food-producing industry. The neolibs understand the economy only as a matter of numbers and money, without understanding that the money actually represents something real, that no amount of political posturing can replace.
That guy's voice really grinds my gears.
Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.
People like to talk about the "Liberal-Capitalist economy" or whatever but our economic model is an outgrowth of our social system - not the other way around.
Social distancing is fundamentally unnatural and inherently psychologically damaging, the longer we do it the worse the damage will be - especially for children. I have some idea of what I speak - having been home-schooled after ruthless bullying, for 18 months - after which my mother sent me to a larger school. It's probably not true to say I "never recovered" but those 18 months put me so far behind developmentally I missed out on all the good bits of being a teenager trying to catch up.
We have forgotten this but grandparents dying of pneumonia is a normal occurrence (one we'd virtually eliminated) whilst not being able to see or hug the ones you love for a year or more is not.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
An interesting paper on the possible effects of different strategies (involving mitigation or suppression) against the current pandemic. It's only 20 pages, so it's worth a reading.
Day 12 since I've been at home, working from home as well... and as someone who is very social, this is really starting to wear me down.
Sure, I've got a lot of stuff to do - work, read, learn new things which I always postponed, game, write (check out my story in the Mead Hall!) and other things but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.
Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.
Proud
Been to:
Swords Made of Letters - 1938. The war is looming in France - and Alexandre Reythier does not have much time left to protect his country. A novel set before the war.
A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?
In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.
How many old people will die of "not coronavius" without ever seeing their grandchildren again?
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Now - let's get real - there's a serious question to be asked if shutting down all Western economies (and by extension invalidating the social model of Western Democracy) is worth it.but it's the idea of staying in the house for at least another month that's horrid.In the UK the "suppression" strategy is estimated to save an additional 250,000 lives, mostly elderly people, vs millions of children who will miss at least half a year of school.Seriously people???Long term quarantine and social distancing is going to cause increased misanthropy in society.
A line from "Heartbreak Ridge" comes to mind: "You adapt. You overcome. You improvise. Let's move. Four minutes."
In the UK an "additional 250,000 lives". In the US an "additional 1-2 million lives". In the entire world an additional [add your own statistical favorite number]. Maybe we should just adopt the asinine "herd mentality" and let the virus run ape-s&*% across the planet, killing millions, and then use the survivors as blood-bags to inoculate everyone else
Look...quarantine is most certainly a bitch. You hear from just about every virologist out there, that because this sucker is so infectious, breaking the infection chain is crucial to stopping this virus. But until a vaccine is developed, quarantine is the best weapon in the arsenal to slow down the spread of the virus. Another famous movie line comes to mind (from The Terminator): "Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead!"
So adapt, overcome, and improvise.
Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-21-2020 at 12:29.
High Plains Drifter
Hi Corona (maybe)
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
They were discussing Universal Income on the news yesterday.
Looks like government paying wages
Last edited by Beskar; 03-21-2020 at 17:42.
Days since the Apocalypse began
"We are living in space-age times but there's too many of us thinking with stone-age minds" | How to spot a Humanist
"Men of Quality do not fear Equality." | "Belief doesn't change facts. Facts, if you are reasonable, should change your beliefs."
Corona Hi? I wish, but my favorite alcoholic beverage is in short supply, at the moment
Look, the R "Naught" statistic clearly shows that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is more infectious than the flu. If you can get through the "geek speak", this particular analysis illustrates it well:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...144-4/fulltext
Granted this looking at travel restrictions and not social distancing, but the theory of reducing the number of contacts is still viable, IMHO.Combining a mathematical model with multiple datasets, we found that the median daily Rt of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan probably varied between 1·6 and 2·6 in January, 2020, before travel restrictions were introduced. We also estimated that transmission declined by around half in the 2 weeks spanning the introduction of restrictions.
Taking that together with Bruce Alyward's (Assistant Director-General of the WHO) comments in the joint WHO-China study released near the end of February, that:
A recommendation for social distancing as far back as the end of February.Conduct multi-sector scenario planning and simulations for the deployment of even more stringent measures to interrupt transmission chains as needed (e.g. the suspension of large-scale gatherings and the closure of schools and workplaces).
So...the alternatives are what....?
Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-21-2020 at 14:43.
High Plains Drifter
More deaths.
As I said previously, many of the older folk in the UK would prefer that because they come from a generation that accepts the death of elderly people from pneumonia, as opposed to dementia, as normal.
ACIN and Monty have been demanding Socialism and this virus is giving it to them: the state pays the wages of people not working, the start nationalises private businesses, cancellation of elections for "the public good" along with suppression of the right to free assembly and free association. The draconian measures taken by the UK Government is the prime cause of the current panic buying, the first result of which has already been a massive reduction in choice as supermarkets move to stack shelves with a single type of toilet paper instead of 20, the next step there is rationing, followed by state control of production.
The US has not experienced this before because it has never really needed to move to a "war footing" like Europe.
It's going to get a lot worse, if sickness disrupts food production then there will be real rationing, which means stretching limited food supplies so that everybody has something, that means a black market...
Now, excuse me, I need to take the drugz.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
A team from Sky News visited the hospitals in Cremona and Bergamo, two of the worst hit towns in Italy. Two videos (particular the second video) show what the physical reality behind the statistics is like: hospitals filled up with people suffering from severe pneumonia.
The video of army trucks carrying coffins with the dead is also from Bergamo, where the local crematorium apparently can't keep up with the pace that people currently are dying at in the city:
The crematorium of Bergamo, working at full capacity, 24 hours a day, can cremate 25 dead", said a spokesperson for the local authority.
"It is clear that it could not stand up to the numbers of the past few days."
Coffins are now being taken to crematoriums in Modena, Acqui Terme, Domodossola, Parma, Piacenza and several other cities.
Once the bodies have been cremated, the ashes will be brought back to Bergamo.
Last edited by Viking; 03-21-2020 at 19:01.
Runes for good luck:
[1 - exp(i*2π)]^-1
Despite your claim that "many of the older folk prefer death" as an out from dementia (like all elderly people are going to suffer dementia at some point), that's a pretty cavalier attitude from someone in their early 30's. Feeling bullet-proof because your age-group is not suffering the majority of the deaths from COVID-19(for the moment, at least)?More deaths.
Not saying Socialism is the answer, either. And despite the fact that draconian measures have brought the spread of the virus in China almost to a halt, I would not have wanted to be on that lock-down to where I might get shot for leaving my home.
Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-21-2020 at 19:39.
High Plains Drifter
I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy - take a look at what's happening in Israel right now. I'm not suggesting that elderly people *want* death I'm communicating what many of them have told me, they are far more stoical about it than than Generation-X and the Millennials.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
I don't think that I do, but I'm sure that's open to debate I'm saying that I'm willing to accept a short-term (several weeks?) shut-down if it means getting ahead of this virus instead of always reacting to it. Now it may well be that a single mother living from pay-check to pay-check might vehemently disagree, or a business that has to shutter its' doors-permanently-might also disagree, but the alternative, as you put it, "more deaths", is unacceptable to me.I think you have a rather cavalier attitude to the shutdown of civil society and suspension of democracy
So if "more deaths" is an acceptable alternative to you, where do you stop? Just how many deaths are you willing to accept as payment for your social rights?
High Plains Drifter
The UK Government is already planning for this to last a minimum of 12 weeks whilst our scientists are warning it could be 12-18 months. That assumes there is a vaccine by then, if ever, because this is the same family of viruses that causes the Common Cold. The strength of the restrictions will probably vary in that time but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.
Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
I wouldn't presume to be able to predict the future---otherwise I'd be in a far more comfortable place than sitting in front of my computer typing this. This thread has been characterized as panic porn for calling this pandemic dire circumstances for humanity. I disagreed with that....until now. Months? Years? That's panic porn, IMHO. What leads you to think that the UK, or any other Western society is going to take advantage of the situation and go all Chairman Mao on its' population?but this is a circumstance of months and possibly years, not weeks.
You still didn't answer my question. How many deaths are an acceptable payment for your "social rights?"Suicides rates are about to skyrocket - as is domestic abuse and homicide - how many more of those deaths are you willing to stomach?
I'll answer yours---the number of deaths from suicides, homicides, and other forms of social violence will certainly go up. The longer mobility is restricted, the more there will be. I'm not a sociologist, nor a statistician, so I can't give a body count. However.....I do know that if SARS-CoV-2 is left to run rampant in the name of "social rights", the body count will absolutely dwarf those who die from societal violence.
High Plains Drifter
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