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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

  1. #61

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    There seems to be a mutation.



    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Don't be a jerk.
    You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.
    Last edited by edyzmedieval; 03-06-2020 at 14:08. Reason: No inflammatory escalation, please. Keep it civil.
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  2. #62
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan View Post
    There seems to be a mutation.




    When you go aggressive, I suggest you do it in person. Doing it behind a computer screen doesn't make you look good. You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.
    I'm not being aggressive, I'm telling you not to tell me what I do or don't remember.
    Last edited by edyzmedieval; 03-06-2020 at 14:09. Reason: No inflammatory escalation, please. Keep it civil.
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  3. #63
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked
    And you can take THAT to the bank

    "Old men running the world....Old men are the future."

    BTW...it took 20 months to develop a SARS vaccine, and 6 months for a Zika vaccine:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/he...s-vaccine.html

    “You have to be brave and you have to be a solid company to do this, because there is no real incentive to do this, no financial incentive,”
    Not sure what this statement means
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-05-2020 at 17:47.
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  4. #64

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.
    We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.
    There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.
    The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

    The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

    But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.
    I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?


  5. #65
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

    The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.
    Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

    Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.
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  6. #66
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    First UK fatality - woman in her 70's, underlying health condition.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602
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  7. #67

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

    Astoundingly irresponsible.

    In this clip, Trump:
    1. Denies WHO's coronavirus death rate based on “hunch"
    2. Calls coronavirus "corona flu"
    3. Suggests it's fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
    4. Compares coronavirus to "the regular flu," indicating he doesn't get the difference

    "We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better" -- Trump to Sean Hannity, last night

    What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests, but he and his minions reject a world beyond their immediate awareness; all they know is sneering and vindictive will to power and intimidation. They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission.


    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

    Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.
    Not clear how worthwhile travel restrictions are in limiting spread. But we do know - obviously - they are economically devastating and can dovetail with business and consumer retrenchment to produce counterproductive shocks.

    It's also telling that the Trump admin has used the pandemic as cover to expand travel bans to more Muslim or African countries.
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  8. #68
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?
    Charles, bless him, has no real power and is not in charge of a major country's response to a health pandemic. So yes I'd probably lean in to the pageantry and enjoy the silliness of it all.

    It is not about being formal or informal, polite or rude. It is about ensuring that the audience grasps the most important points. Dopey Donnie is not very bright. He is also old and probably has small vessel disease. He when at his peak tends to only hear what he wants.

    So all this together means the answers should be very simple and focus on the "over a year" rather than "two months until phase I".
    No, you can't up the timeline by shouting at it.
    No, throwing resources at it probably won't speed things up greatly either - safety data takes time to collect.
    Yes, probably best Industry works with the CDC directly on the details whilst you play Big Boy The Apprentice and try to look like a Leader.
    Yes, you can hang Mike Pence out to be the fall guy if you want. Just don't let him get in the way.

    Don't get me wrong - if I was in Donnie's position the only difference is I'd have cheerfully asked them to coordinate with the CDC in the first place since I know I don't know enough (OK, anything) to have a meaningful input.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  9. #69
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission
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  10. #70
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Gentlemen, a fair warning to some of you - do not go down the inflammatory route and words with a personal target. I've edited out your posts. Keep it civil please.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

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  12. #72
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?
    It's Friday and we are already 64% above that number:




    By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.

    I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.
    Last edited by Viking; 03-06-2020 at 22:44.
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  13. #73

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    When I said "What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests" I meant "contrary."


    Don't do a racisms.

    “I am very sorry to have to cancel your assistance at the fair next week,” Azran wrote to Nguyen. “The coronavirus is causing much anxiety everywhere, and fairly or not, Asians are being seen as carriers of the virus.

    “Your presence on the stand would unfortunately create hesitation on the part of the audience to enter the exhibition space. I apologise for this and hope we can meet and perhaps work together in future.”
    I know people who are typically quite racist about nonwhites, who are now apparently also deeply aversive toward Italians (?). Not sure if that's a good or a bad sign for life on earth.


    Back to Trump.

    Trump, signing the $8.3B coronavirus bill w/Azar standing over him, was asked why he canceled his trip to CDC.

    Azar quickly interjected that Trump had sent him to CDC instead.

    Trump then clarified that the trip was scuttled b/c CDC was concerned an official there had the virus.
    https://www.cbs58.com/news/trump-to-...sion-to-cancel

    White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham confirmed the visit Friday morning. Earlier, a White House official said that the visit was scrapped because Trump did not want to be a distraction at the agency.

    "The President is no longer traveling to Atlanta today," a White House official said. "The CDC has been proactive and prepared since the very beginning and the President does not want to interfere with the CDC's mission to protect the health and welfare of their people and the agency."

    But Trump contradicted that message later Friday morning, telling the press he might still go.

    "We may go. They thought there was a problem at CDC, somebody that had the virus," Trump said in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, during a signing of bill to spend more than $8 billion to fight the virus. Trump added that the person in question at the CDC has tested negative for the virus.

    "They've tested the person very fully and it was a negative test," Trump said. "I may be going. They're going to see if they can turn it around with Secret Service."
    You can never pile on enough.


    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Economy and travel wise, the global epidemic has hindered significantly a number of industries but the irony of it is that it benefits those who would want to "work from home" or not at all in the office. Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
    It could accelerate the administrative shift of universities to online distance-learning platforms.

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    It's Friday and we are already 64% above that number:

    By next Sunday evening, we could be at 1500 confirmed cases in the US, testing permitting. The markets are not going to like it; I am betting on a 15-20% fall for major stock market indices from current lows over the next few months. There are also still solid chances for more bad news emerging from China as the country tries to return to normal levels of production.

    I think that 2020 is going to be quite pivotal for the 2020s due to the virus. Containment seems out of the question, and vaccines and antiviral drugs could take a long time to develop and distribute, so this is going to be costly, and that cost could be enough to topple governments and sway elections.
    The US government has, last I heard, declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-06-2020 at 22:57.
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  14. #74
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Unwillingly it creates a new current of how people work and how they will do so in the future.
    Just the tip of the iceberg, IMHO. There are many scenarios being played out in business and financial circles, and the biggest variable is the length and severity of COVID-19's pandemic.

    A few scenarios to date:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/15/op...ronavirus.html

    This episode will also add momentum to some changes in global supply chains that were already underway. Along with Chinese workers’ rising wages and the prospects of further U.S.-China trade tensions, the epidemic is likely to cause multinational companies to reassess their supply chains and reduce their production footprints in China.
    https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/03/1058601

    Responding to questions about whether countries might react to a potential supply-chain squeeze by looking to domestic manufacturers instead, the UNCTAD economists explained that such a measure would unlikely be effective in the short-term.
    “China has built a huge logistics - transport logistics - which is like harbours, shipping lanes, airplanes, that actually are able to move all of those goods in and out of China”, Mr. Nicita explained. “Now yes, some industries may be able to find some sort of alternative supplier like in Mexico or East Europe, but that will require even more time, because not only production needs to be moved, but also the infrastructure related to logistics would need to be built.”
    Ms. Coke-Hamilton added: “It was the same argument that was used when the US President thought that … imposing certain measures on certain countries would shift production back to the United States. It’s never that easy, because when companies move and they relocate and they set up their industries and their logistics frameworks, it’s very hard to shift in the short term.”
    http://www.hbr.org/2020/03/what-coro...global-economy

    Could Covid-19 create its own structural legacy? History suggests that the global economy after a major crisis like Covid-19 will likely be different in a number of significant ways.
    • Microeconomic legacy: Crises, including epidemics, can spur the adoption of new technologies and business models. The SARS outbreak of 2003 is often credited with the adoption of online shopping among Chinese consumers, accelerating Alibaba’s rise. As schools have closed in Japan and could plausibly close in the U.S. and other markets, could e-learning and e-delivery of education see a breakthrough? Further, have digital efforts in Wuhan to contain the crisis via smart-phone trackers effectively demonstrated a powerful new public health tool?
    • Macroeconomic legacy: Already it looks like the virus will hasten the progress to more decentralized global value chains — essentially the virus adds a biological dimension to the political and institutional forces that have pushed the pre-2016 value chain model into a more fragmented direction.
    • Political legacy: Political ramifications are not to be ruled out, globally, as the virus puts to the test various political systems’ ability to effectively protect their populations. Brittle institutions could be exposed, and political shifts triggered. Depending on its duration and severity, Covid-19 could even shape the U.S. presidential election. At the multilateral level, the crisis could be read as a call to more cooperation or conversely push the bipolar centers of geopolitical power further apart.
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-07-2020 at 14:47.
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  15. #75

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Supply shock supply shock they say, but... the airline and hospitality industries may see a lot of damage from lost revenue. And, overall, all the people out on paychecks or small businesses out on customers, both still paying rent...

    Oh hey, bankruptcies.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/05/busin...vel/index.html
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/virus-c...pt-11583408695
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  16. #76
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    The US government has, last I heard, declined to test people en masse!!! We don't have the foggiest idea of how many are affected and where!
    I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).
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  17. #77

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    I get the impression that testing is being ramped up in the US, so that a surge in confirmed cases can be expected now as that number catches up with the spreading that has been going on for a while (and then the surge will continue since the number of cases is currently growing exponentially).
    NY State of Emergency.

    I may be off by a bit but cases increased just today from about a dozen confirmed, to nearly a hundred. Time to go shopping I guess.

    Edit: I was conflating geographic levels. There were up to 50 in all of NY state confirmed before today.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-08-2020 at 01:04.
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  18. #78
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Draconian measures being introduced in Northern Italy:

    Italy's prime minister has said at least 16 million people are now under lock-down in Lombardy region and also in 14 provinces until early April.

    [...]

    People are unable to enter or leave the whole northern region of Lombardy, home to 10 million people, except for emergency access. Milan is the main city in the region.

    [...]

    Weddings and funerals have been suspended, as well as religious and cultural events.

    Cinemas, night clubs, gyms, swimming pools, museums and ski resorts have been closed.

    Restaurants and cafes can open between 06:00 and 18:00 but customers must sit at least a metre apart.

    People have been told to stay home as much as possible, and those who break the quarantine could face three months in jail.

    Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people


    Why? I suppose this is a hint:

    The head of the Lombardy's intensive care crisis unit says the health system is on the brink of collapse, intensive care being set up in hallways. By March 26 they predict ~18,000 #Covid19 cases in Lombardy, of which ~3,000 will need intensive care.
    https://twitter.com/RachelDonadio/st...30756412567559

    This article from 3 March provides a similar picture:

    In the Lombardy region of Italy, the epicenter for the novel coronavirus outbreak in the country, officials are looking to pull doctors out of retirement and are fast-tracking nursing students who are close to graduating to help treat patients, the Associated Press reported Monday.

    [...]

    According to the AP, hospitals in the cities Lodi and Cremona had so many patients coming in last week that they had to close their emergency rooms and send some patients to other facilities. A little under 10% of people with the COVID-19 virus in the region have needed to be admitted to the ICU, the head of the national Civil Protection agency, Angelo Borrelli, told the AP.

    "Effectively some of the hospitals in Lombardy are under a stress that is much heavier than what this area can support," Dr. Massimo Galli, the head of infectious disease at Milan's Sacco Hospital, told Sky TG24.
    The healthcare system in Italy's Lombardy region is so strained from the new coronavirus that officials are asking doctors to come out of retirement and nursing students are being fast-tracked to graduation


    I feel pretty confident now when saying that a similar scenario is going to happen in the US, particularly in Washington state. Probably in other places in Western countries as well. Poorer countries will be hit even worse; I imagine a lot of people there will die not just from the virus, but from other causes due to an overloaded healthcare system, something that can also happen in wealthier countries.

    I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too (isn't that the benchmark all humans have?).
    Last edited by Viking; 03-08-2020 at 10:24.
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  19. #79
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I am finally starting to become convinced that this is not a drill; this could happen where I live, too
    I am absolutely astounded how nonchalant people are where I live. Yes, there's been the requisite panic-buying of masks, toilet paper, etc., but just yesterday on a local sports-talk radio I listen to, a DJ was bloviating about how he's not going to change his travel plans, and that much of the media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is "over-reaction". And there were a lot of phone calls from listeners echoing the same sentiments!

    Say what? I guess these people haven't taken what they've been watching/reading in the news seriously, YET.......

    Panic? No. Take simple some precautions like frequent hand washing, limit face touching as much as possible, and circulate in public only when you must. Only the gods can stand in judgement of that DJ if, through his cavalier attitude, he passes the virus to someone who dies.
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-08-2020 at 13:42.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    With the virus being transmissable for a good time before and after the symptoms, the chance of containment being long lost and a second strain emerging, feels like catching it is inevitable at this point for most of the world.

    All thats left is to wait for it to hit you tough it out, hope you dont become the unlucky 1-2%. Thank god I am still young in a first world country.

    And every bastard that helped this virus along (or created it depending on which theory is correct) will probably comfortably ride it out in a CCP provided gated community.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-08-2020 at 14:17.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    That is weird.

    The newer strain, and the more aggressive, is the L-type.
    The older strain, the s-type, dates back to December or so.

    I had thought that viruses tended to mutate towards less aggressive/less virulent strains in order to propogate themselves more effectively without "burning out" the spread possibility through rapid host death etc. This one seems to be doing the opposite.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  22. #82
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Evolution is a reactionary process, as its low lethality ti begin with it probably isnt getting the impetus to mutate away from killing the host.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


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  23. #83
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Right, this virus is pretty low-lethality, the "less virulant over time" model only applies to something like Syphilis that initially killed everyone infected within weeks or months in a horrifying way, then transmuted into a silent disease that eats you from the inside over hears and decades.
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  24. #84
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Probably should point out I got evolution wrong. Mutation doesnt have impetus per se; it is a random occurance, evolution is when one mutation proves to have an advantage that allows it to thrive, often at the expense of its originating species.

    Viruses can get into a position where lethality becomes detrimental; they cant spread because they have shortened their transmission chances too much to ensure continuation. The randomly less lethal mutants that pop up end up outliving and replacing their more lethal cousins.

    Coronavirus is a long way from that so any mutants that increase lethality wont die off on thier own any faster than the original.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-08-2020 at 19:23.
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  25. #85
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Bruce Aylward of the WHO says he did not see any evidence of a huge body of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases when he visited China, and that the case fatality rate is likely somewhere between 1-2%:

    There’s this big panic in the West over asymptomatic cases. Many people are asymptomatic when tested, but develop symptoms within a day or two.

    In Guangdong, they went back and retested 320,000 samples originally taken for influenza surveillance and other screening. Less than 0.5 percent came up positive, which is about the same number as the 1,500 known Covid cases in the province. (Covid-19 is the medical name of the illness caused by the coronavirus.)

    There is no evidence that we’re seeing only the tip of a grand iceberg, with nine-tenths of it made up of hidden zombies shedding virus. What we’re seeing is a pyramid: most of it is aboveground.

    [...]

    I’ve heard it said that “the mortality rate is not so bad because there are actually way more mild cases.” Sorry — the same number of people that were dying, still die. The real case fatality rate is probably what it is outside Hubei Province, somewhere between 1 and 2 percent.
    Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus

    As one might remember, this should make it an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu, which I guess squares well with overwhelmed hospitals for such an infectious disease.
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  26. #86
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I’m Canadian. This is the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does
    This. Outside of China, efforts to deal with COVID-19 have been mostly reactionary. I would postulate that countries don't want to rock the economic boat, so they take a wait-and-see approach, Italy being the prime example. And now look...an entire province of 16 million on lock-down. Too late.

    As soon as you find clusters, you shut schools, theaters, restaurants. Only Wuhan and the cities near it went into total lockdown.
    Back of the envelope, it’s hundreds of thousands of people in China that did not get Covid-19 because of this aggressive response.
    Seeing what I've been seeing, if other countries, particularly my own US of A, doesn't follow this protocol, it's going to be a very loooong spring and early summer.

    75 to 80 percent of all clusters are in families. You get the odd ones in hospitals or restaurants or prisons, but the vast majority are in families.
    Be curious to know if this holds true outside of China

    The government made it clear: testing is free. And if it was Covid-19, when your insurance ended, the state picked up everything.
    In the U.S., that’s a barrier to speed. People think: “If I see my doctor, it’s going to cost me $100. If I end up in the I.C.U., what’s it going to cost me?” That’ll kill you. That’s what could wreak havoc. This is where universal health care coverage and security intersect. The U.S. has to think this through.
    Yep, and the US could be in BIG trouble, especially with a president who thought COVID-19 was just another flu, and his crony Pence who's response to an HIV outbreak when he was governor of Indiana, was abysmal:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...k-worse-118648

    Pence’s handling of the Indiana HIV outbreak is a case study in mismanagement of a public health crisis. His inaction as governor gave Austin, Indiana with a population of around 4,200, a higher HIV incidence than “any country in sub-Saharan Africa"
    Yeah, Donny Baby, just the man to put in charge

    They’re mobilized, like in a war, and it’s fear of the virus that was driving them.
    God help us here, because we can't even provide test kits that actually function
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-09-2020 at 01:32.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Bruce Aylward of the WHO says he did not see any evidence of a huge body of undiagnosed COVID-19 cases when he visited China, and that the case fatality rate is likely somewhere between 1-2%:

    Inside China’s All-Out War on the Coronavirus

    As one might remember, this should make it an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu, which I guess squares well with overwhelmed hospitals for such an infectious disease.
    Aylward reports remarkable success from China's efforts, hundreds of thousands of infections averted. Hopefully so.

    But we don't really have political will or implements to impose such a response, which included concentrating tens of thousands of medical personnel at the epicenter, hundreds of whom were sickened (with some deaths).

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Seeing what I've been seeing, if other countries, particularly my own US of A, doesn't follow this protocol, it's going to be a very loooong spring and early summer.
    What I've been reading assumes it's too late to contain with sustained community spread, and that we'd be better off shifting resources to mitigating the effects.

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  28. #88
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    But we don't really have political will or implements to impose such a response
    What we have here is a major cluster@#$%:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...y-soon-improve

    In principle, many hospital and academic labs around the country have the capability to carry out tests themselves. The PCR reaction uses so-called primers, short stretches of DNA, to find viral sequences. The CDC website posts the primers used in its test, and WHO publicly catalogs other primers and protocols, too. Well-equipped state or local labs can use these—or come up with their own—to produce what are known as a “laboratory-developed tests” for in-house use.

    But at the moment, they’re not allowed to do that without FDA approval. When the United States declared the outbreak a public health emergency on 31 January, a bureaucratic process kicked in that requires FDA’s “emergency use approval” for any tests. “The declaration of a public health emergency did exactly what it shouldn’t have. It limited the diagnostic capacity of this country,” Mina says. “It’s insane.”
    The World Health Organization (WHO) has shipped testing kits to 57 countries. China had five commercial tests on the market 1 month ago and can now do up to 1.6 million tests a week; South Korea has tested 65,000 people so far. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in contrast, has done only 459 tests since the epidemic began.
    Like I said earlier, god help us here in the States, because our government and the bureaucracy surrounding the CDC, is going to make things much worse than they need to be...
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  29. #89
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Probably should point out I got evolution wrong. Mutation doesnt have impetus per se; it is a random occurance, evolution is when one mutation proves to have an advantage that allows it to thrive, often at the expense of its originating species.

    Viruses can get into a position where lethality becomes detrimental; they cant spread because they have shortened their transmission chances too much to ensure continuation. The randomly less lethal mutants that pop up end up outliving and replacing their more lethal cousins.

    Coronavirus is a long way from that so any mutants that increase lethality wont die off on thier own any faster than the original.
    Especially if the mutant is more infectious, offsetting any penalty for being more deadly - although I'm not sure this one is actually more deadly so much as it will infect more people and therefore more will die.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  30. #90
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Three cheers for the saudis dropping oil prices right as the panic hit the markets...

    You'd think a price drop in crude would have positive knock on effects rather than bad ones what with its main value being primarily what it can be turned into. The stock market is wierd.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-09-2020 at 20:01.
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