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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

  1. #91

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    DONALD TRUMP:
    So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!


    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    What we have here is a major cluster@#$%:

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...y-soon-improve
    Point taken, thought that article was published at the end of February. I'd imagine the situation has somewhat improved since then. On the other hand...

    https://twitter.com/freedlander/stat...43875508420614

    Email from my doctor’s office this am: “At this time, despite what you hear from the White House, we are not able to test our patients.”

    More: “We have to triage you and then get permission from the Department of Health based on an algorithm.”

    Our very large local medical group sent this email message on 3/4/20: At this time, no physician offices have the ability to test for #coronavirus. The #COVID19 test can only be done by New York State and @CDCgov
    Uhhhh....


    And a few days ago the CPAC conservative conference, with POTUS in attendance, was exposed to 2019-nCov. Ted Cruz has self-isolated.


    And Darkness and Decay and the Redcap Death held illimitable dominion over all.


    Also, these two pieces of media are apparently NOT satire:

    Classic leader principle: US Surgeon General: "The president - he sleeps less than I do, and he's healther than what I am"
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1236669894747398144

    Nero fiddling: Trump: "Who knows what this means, but it sounds good to me!"
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...78368533700609


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    Bob Page: Your appointment to FEMA should be finalized within the week. I've already discussed the matter with the Senator.
    Walton Simons: I take it he was agreeable?
    Page: He didn't really have a choice.
    Simons: Has he been infected?
    Page: Ah yes, most certainly. When I mentioned we could put him on the priority list for the Ambrosia vaccine, he was so willing it was almost pathetic.
    Simons: This plague — the rioting is intensifying to the point where we may not be able to contain it.
    Page: Why contain it? Let it spill over into the schools and churches. Let the bodies pile up in the streets. In the end, they'll beg us to save them.
    Simons: I've received reports of armed attacks on shipments. There's not enough vaccine to go around, and the underclasses are starting to get desperate.
    Page: Of course they're desperate. They can smell their deaths, and the sound they'll make rattling their cages will serve as a warning to the rest.



    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Three cheers for the saudis dropping oil prices right as the panic hit the markets...

    You'd think a price drop in crude would have positive knock on effects rather than bad ones what with its main value being primarily what it can be turned into. The stock market is wierd.
    According to the link, the row is such that Saudi-led OPEC wanted to cut production to keep prices stable, but Russia disagreed on grounds that a production cut would advantage the US shale industry. The effect is Saudis nix the deal and move to increase production. Just as overvalued stocks are popping, supply chains are disrupted, and demand/consumer confidence is cratering amidst the coronavirus emergency.

    Interesting connections: Apparently the shale fracking industry in the US is like Uber: overleveraged, oversupplied in a market with depressed prices, premised on misleading or deluding investors, near bankruptcy having lost billions nonstop for years. A downturn now probably does a lot of damage to shale gas and oil, right?

    Also, for the first time in history the 10-year US Treasury yield has come below 1%. No idea what that means, though I figure it's more free money the federal government is leaving on the table in refusing to commit to deficit spending.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-09-2020 at 21:42.
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  2. #92
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Point taken, thought that article was published at the end of February. I'd imagine the situation has somewhat improved since then.
    Say what you will about the Chinese...love 'em, hate 'em, indifferent, but they went from thinking about suppressing the existence of COVID-19 (like they did with SARS), to being all in. And despite the "all in" approach to containing the virus, 80k+ infections/3k+ deaths later, they've seen their first declines in new cases and deaths since the outbreak began in Dec 2019. If that trend continues, then every single governing body in the world needs to wake up from la-la land (or it can't possibly happen here), and adopt the same tactics, or something similar.

    If you take the wait-and-see approach, Italy happens. This sucker moves so fast, that if you hesitate....it's too late. Given the inept, and insanely partisan leadership we have here in the US, I don't see the clear and determined effort that the Chinese have put forth. Like I said earlier, it's going to be a long, long descent into hell for US citizens, before we can begin a recovery.

    I just saw this:

    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ck-market.html

    At the same time, I have to say, people are now staying in the United States, spending their money in the U.S. — and I like that. People are now staying in the United States, spending their money in the U.S., and I like that. I’ve been after that for a long time.
    (This as a reaction to the huge downturn in overseas airline flights.)

    Probably an overreaction, but I'm selling all my stuff and moving to Tibet, where I will spend the rest of my days meditating on how stupid some world leaders can be
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-09-2020 at 23:41.
    High Plains Drifter

  3. #93

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Reminder:

    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  4. #94

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Picture is funny, but if they really didn't want oils on the hardware it would have been stored in a cleanroom.

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  5. #95

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Picture is funny, but if they really didn't want oils on the hardware it would have been stored in a cleanroom.
    Equipment can always be cleaned, it's not an imminent safety hazard.

    But what's the point? The story behind the picture is that Marco Rubio "dared" Pence to touch it. These people think it's cool and good to make a mess that professionals in the background will clean up for them. It's a mindset highly conducive to incompetence and negligence, without even taking into consideration everything else we know about them.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  6. #96

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Equipment can always be cleaned, it's not an imminent safety hazard.
    Just to be annoying, it depends on the nature of the equipment/process.

    Semiconductor manufacturing is on one end of the extreme as far as environmental deviation.


  7. #97
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Italy is now in complete lockdown.

    It looks like travel between regions is basically going to be stopped completely, entry and exit to the country severely restricted, schools and universities to close.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

    People will need to continue to work, though, becaUSE THE BASIC FUNCTIONS OF THE ECONOMY, FOOD DISTRIBUTION ETC. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  8. #98
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I thought this article (published in Nov 2017 and authored by noted historian John M. Barry) pointed out some striking parallels from 1918's deadly H1N1 outbreak to the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Obviously two different viruses; over 100 years of medical advances; a very different world than now:

    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/histo...ear-180965222/

    What's striking to me about the article (among other things) was this:

    That is why, in my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.

    I recall participating in a pandemic “war game” in Los Angeles involving area public health officials. Before the exercise began, I gave a talk about what happened in 1918, how society broke down, and emphasized that to retain the public’s trust, authorities had to be candid. “You don’t manage the truth,” I said. “You tell the truth.” Everyone shook their heads in agreement.

    Next, the people running the game revealed the day’s challenge to the participants: A severe pandemic influenza virus was spreading around the world. It had not officially reached California, but a suspected case—the severity of the symptoms made it seem so—had just surfaced in Los Angeles. The news media had learned of it and were demanding a press conference.

    The participant with the first move was a top-ranking public health official. What did he do? He declined to hold a press conference, and instead just released a statement: More tests are required. The patient might not have pandemic influenza. There is no reason for concern.

    I was stunned. This official had not actually told a lie, but he had deliberately minimized the danger; whether or not this particular patient had the disease, a pandemic was coming. The official’s unwillingness to answer questions from the press or even acknowledge the pandemic’s inevitability meant that citizens would look elsewhere for answers, and probably find a lot of bad ones. Instead of taking the lead in providing credible information he instantly fell behind the pace of events. He would find it almost impossible to get ahead of them again. He had, in short, shirked his duty to the public, risking countless lives.

    And that was only a game.
    Does anyone else think that in some respects we haven't learned much in 100 years about dealing with pandemics?
    High Plains Drifter

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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Considering this time around it was the chinese who first encountered it I think it was less lack of understanding and more the consequnces of being seen to assume responsability.

    Admittedly we arent exactly seeing an overflow of candidness from our own Leaders about this.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-10-2020 at 15:31.
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    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
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  10. #100
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Given the "informed" nature of many of our fellow citizens, coupled with the inevitably conflict/blame framing of media reportage, we have trained our leaders to obfuscate and sidle away from any fixed response. While this is somewhat true in all things, it is especial true of natural disasters and epidemics. There only choice is to lose and look bad.

    Science says stick to the truth and spread the word -- which will do as much/more than anything to minimize the impact -- but the public WILL focus on the outliers of highest risk and demand something be done about them and that their security be absolutely preserved. Never mind the fact that absolute security with such things is impossible, and that the most effective and least invasive counters have already been put forward by the scientific truth-sayers, more will be demanded and the politicians know they will be blamed.

    Do nothing? Blame there too, of course, for inaction. If the pol stands there and asserts -- not much to do, just let the med professionals get on with their work -- they will be pilloried for not doing enough.

    Public 'dog-and-pony' shows that do little but "dress up" the promulgation of basic information -- repeated hourly to feed the 24-hour news cycle -- with a pol looking "calm" becomes the only rational response from the pol's end of things.

    So yes, "truth" is the answer -- but the answer cannot suffice the public need for immediacy and totality in response.


    On the bright side, the public panic over a moderately more deadly pandemic than is the annual pandemic of garden-variety influenza will probably save more us from more flu deaths than in many a previous year.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  11. #101
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Admittedly we arent exactly seeing an overflow of candidness from our own Leaders about this.
    Pretty much Mr. Barry's point, no? The worst case scenario of this being played out at the moment is Iran:

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-seems/607663/

    Don't know if all those figures are correct (there are a lot of debatable assumptions being used), but if infections run at even 10% or less of Mr. Wood's calculations, it's very, very, sobering.

    THIS is what Mr. Barry was referring to when he said public officials that shirk their duty to the public, put lives at risk:

    On February 21, Iran conducted the latest in a series of sham elections in which only government-selected candidates could run for office. To show disapproval, many Iranians refuse to vote, and as participation has dropped, the appearance of electoral legitimacy has dropped as well. Iran’s government told its people that the United States had hyped COVID-19 to suppress turnout, and Tehran vowed to punish anyone spreading rumors about a serious epidemic. Forty-three percent of Iranians voted, unaware that the outbreak had already begun. Quick action could have allowed quarantines to be put in place.
    High Plains Drifter

  12. #102
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Pretty much Mr. Barry's point, no?
    Yeah. I think I'm having a hangup about the chinese government, they pretty much willfully botched the containment and outright sabotaged international recognition of the problem to save face; a level corruption, neglect and downright warped priorities that makes the west's reaction look pristine in comparison.

    Also makes much of the west's reluctance to even acknowledge this intensely grating.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-10-2020 at 16:19.
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  13. #103
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Public 'dog-and-pony' shows that do little but "dress up" the promulgation of basic information -- repeated hourly to feed the 24-hour news cycle -- with a pol looking "calm" becomes the only rational response from the pol's end of things
    Of course there is a certain amount hyperbole used to generate ratings and "click-fests", and calm, clear thinking is needed when facing any crisis. It comes down to having a clear & concise plan (even if you have to make it on the fly as the Chinese have), and more importantly, having the determination to carry it out. We are going to see how the wheat separates itself from the chaff in the coming weeks, I think....
    High Plains Drifter

  14. #104
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    In about 10 days we will reap the arrogance that we have sewn.

    [Rumors] I'm hearing a lot through the grapevine and none if its good. Everything from NDAs with hospital workers to mild/moderate/asymptomatic cases simply being sent home to be deliberately undercounted. [Rumors]

    I saw that graphic from the AHA 96 million infected, 480,000 dead. That is a joke and operates on a best case scenario for lethality and false assumption that the hospitals wont be overwhelmed. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and medical staff will have to make tough descions. I have a nasty feeling we will be putting a lot of people in the ground. I hope this isnt the case but the Feds seem content to ride this bad boy out until they can't.

    We knew and we did nothing

    Wash your hands, work from home, don't shake, if you can shop for the old people in your life, please do it
    Last edited by Strike For The South; 03-10-2020 at 16:34.
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    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

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  15. #105
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    they pretty much willfully botched the containment and outright sabotaged international recognition of the problem to save face
    Disagree. They started out that way, I think, but when it quickly became apparent what they were dealing with, they put all the resources they had into containment (has an area the size of Hubei Province ever been put on total lock-down before?) and mitigating the on-going epidemic by setting up huge field hospitals, fast-tracking testing, putting nearly the entire country's medical personnel onto the problem (and some of them died as a result), and taking the financial burden of doctor visits, etc.

    I repost this link of an interview with assistant director general and veteran epidemiologist Bruce Aylward from the WHO:

    https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/2116106...-covid19-china

    I think the key learning from China is speed — it’s all about the speed. The faster you can find the cases, isolate the cases, and track their close contacts, the more successful you’re going to be. Another big takeaway is that even when you have substantial transmission with a lot of clusters — because people are looking at the situation in some countries now and going, “Oh, gosh, what can be done?” — what China demonstrates is if you settle down, roll up your sleeves, and begin that systematic work of case finding and contact tracing, you definitely can change the shape of the outbreak, take the heat out of it, and prevent a lot of people from getting sick and a lot of the most vulnerable from dying.
    High Plains Drifter

  16. #106
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    accidental double -- internet on this end. Apologies.
    Last edited by Seamus Fermanagh; 03-10-2020 at 21:09.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

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  17. #107
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Disagree. They started out that way, I think
    Thats my point, they started that way; screwed the opening stage horrifically, arrested whistleblowers, pressued the WHO into advising against trade and travel restrictions against China and only got into gear only once it couldnt be covered up, ensuring it went worldwide.

    I dont think the chinese are doing all that well right now; the converted hospital collapse two days ago reinforces my view that they are not beyond cutting corners and lying about the reality on the ground even in the midst of the epidemic.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-10-2020 at 17:47.
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  18. #108
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    and only got into gear only once it couldnt be covered up, ensuring it went worldwide
    Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

    The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-10-2020 at 17:51.
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  19. #109

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Seamus, delayed double-post?

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Just to be annoying, it depends on the nature of the equipment/process.

    Semiconductor manufacturing is on one end of the extreme as far as environmental deviation.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    In about 10 days we will reap the arrogance that we have sewn.
    Long time no see. Why 10 days?

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

    The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.
    If accurate, Aylward's report is promising, but as the Chinese adage goes, it's too early to say.
    Vitiate Man.

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  20. #110

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Wash your hands, work from home, don't shake, if you can shop for the old people in your life, please do it
    You are asking too much.


  21. #111

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    The unfortunate reality is that epidemics will never go away so long as charlatans and the ignorant have full freedom to push dangerous notions about health and vaccines.
    The ability for disease to circulate rests on the small percent who are susceptible to believe anything they read.
    We would have to roll in more types of speech as prohibited under a 'threat to the public safety' kind of rationale but I don't know if we would be comfortable with such a thing.

    Question for Strike..and others:
    It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?


  22. #112
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    The unfortunate reality is that epidemics will never go away so long as charlatans and the ignorant have full freedom to push dangerous notions about health and vaccines.
    The ability for disease to circulate rests on the small percent who are susceptible to believe anything they read.
    We would have to roll in more types of speech as prohibited under a 'threat to the public safety' kind of rationale but I don't know if we would be comfortable with such a thing.

    Question for Strike..and others:
    It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?
    If only we could outlaw ignorance and stupidity.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  23. #113
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Can you truly contain such a contagious virus? I would say no, especially in our global society. I will take the opposite view that China's quick response greatly reduced the exposure to the rest of the world until countries like South Korea, Italy, and Iran undid all that work as far as the rest of the world is concerned. And shortly, I believe, you will be able to add the United States to the list of countries moving too slowly and indecisively to slow this critter down.

    The fact that China was a bit reticent, at first, doesn't negate their response and methodology once they went "all in" to containment.
    In the initial stages?

    Yes, you absolutely can - all evidence points to a deliberate cover up at the provincial level and it was only until the Chinese national government got involved that the response became in any way effective or geared towards public safety.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  24. #114
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Ye gods, confirmed Danish cases up 191% in a single day, from 90 on Monday to 262 Today.

    I have not been able to find a context or explanation for this increase; tough luck for Denmark, I guess. On the same day, Norwegian health authories declare that they for the first time have identified cases of untraceable virus transmission, and recommend employers to consider letting more employees work from home. So it begins.

    The city authorities here introduced the one metre rule for e.g. restaurants; but no direct restrictions on the giant petri dish that is public transport.



    The situation in France, Spain, Germany and the UK appears to be spiralling out of control, and there are several other countries in the same boat.

    If China really can get their outbreak under control, I wonder how realistic it is for the country to avoid reintroduction of the virus from abroad.
    Last edited by Viking; 03-10-2020 at 22:08.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    In the initial stages?

    Yes, you absolutely can - all evidence points to a deliberate cover up at the provincial level and it was only until the Chinese national government got involved that the response became in any way effective or geared towards public safety.
    There will probably be a few more deaths once all this is over. With the bill sent to the victims' families.

  26. #116

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Pelosi and Schumer, the Congressional Democratic leadership, have a decent outline for a federal response to the crisis.

    Paid sick leave — workers impacted by quarantine orders or responsible for caring for children impacted by school closures must receive paid sick leave to alleviate the devastating consequences of lost wages;

    Enhanced Unemployment Insurance — we must ensure unemployment insurance benefits are available and sufficient for workers who may lose their jobs from the economic impacts of the epidemic;

    Food security — we must expand SNAP, WIC, school lunch and other initiatives and suspend implementation of any regulations that weaken federal food assistance, in order to ensure vulnerable populations do not lose access to food during this epidemic;

    Clear protections for frontline workers — we must have clear standards and sufficient distribution of necessary protective equipment for health care and other workers who are in contact with people who have been exposed or are suffering from the virus as well as the people responsible for cleaning buildings and public facilities;

    Widespread and free coronavirus testing — to control the spread of coronavirus, the administration must ensure that all Americans who need an evaluation are able to access locations for cost-free testing and rapidly increase the unacceptably low daily test processing capacity inside the U.S.;

    Affordable treatment for all — patients must be reimbursed for any non-covered coronavirus-related costs, or else the epidemic will be worsened because Americans will fear they cannot afford the costs associated with treatment;

    Anti-price gouging protections — we must ensure that Americans are protected from price gouging of medical and non-medical essentials during this emergency;

    Increase capacity of medical system — we must use our emergency response mechanisms to mobilize resources and facilities in order to respond to surges in demand.
    Trump meanwhile suggested bailing out various industries from the top, among other proposals that no one else in his government appears to have been informed of.


    Re: Chinese response, a more general examination of digital authoritarianism that I posted weeks ago.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    [tweet]

    The conjecture (and it is no more than a plausible conjecture) is simple, but it straightforwardly contradicts the collective wisdom that is emerging in Washington DC, and other places too. This collective wisdom is that China is becoming a kind of all-efficient Technocratic Leviathan thanks to the combination of machine learning and authoritarianism. Authoritarianism has always been plagued with problems of gathering and collating information and of being sufficiently responsive to its citizens’ needs to remain stable. Now, the story goes, a combination of massive data gathering and machine learning will solve the basic authoritarian dilemma. When every transaction that a citizen engages in is recorded by tiny automatons riding on the devices they carry in their hip pockets, when cameras on every corner collect data on who is going where, who is talking to whom, and uses facial recognition technology to distinguish ethnicity and identify enemies of the state, a new and far more powerful form of authoritarianism will emerge. Authoritarianism then, can emerge as a more efficient competitor that can beat democracy at its home game (some fear this; some welcome it).

    The theory behind this is one of strength reinforcing strength – the strengths of ubiquitous data gathering and analysis reinforcing the strengths of authoritarian repression to create an unstoppable juggernaut of nearly perfectly efficient oppression. Yet there is another story to be told – of weakness reinforcing weakness. Authoritarian states were always particularly prone to the deficiencies identified in James Scott’s Seeing Like a State – the desire to make citizens and their doings legible to the state, by standardizing and categorizing them, and reorganizing collective life in simplified ways, for example by remaking cities so that they were not organic structures that emerged from the doings of their citizens, but instead grand chessboards with ordered squares and boulevards, reducing all complexities to a square of planed wood. The grand state bureaucracies that were built to carry out these operations were responsible for multitudes of horrors, but also for the crumbling of the Stalinist state into a Brezhnevian desuetude, where everyone pretended to be carrying on as normal because everyone else was carrying on too. The deficiencies of state action, and its need to reduce the world into something simpler that it could comprehend and act upon created a kind of feedback loop, in which imperfections of vision and action repeatedly reinforced each other.

    So what might a similar analysis say about the marriage of authoritarianism and machine learning? Something like the following, I think. There are two notable problems with machine learning. One – that while it can do many extraordinary things, it is not nearly as universally effective as the mythology suggests. The other is that it can serve as a magnifier for already existing biases in the data. The patterns that it identifies may be the product of the problematic data that goes in, which is (to the extent that it is accurate) often the product of biased social processes. When this data is then used to make decisions that may plausibly reinforce those processes (by singling e.g. particular groups that are regarded as problematic out for particular police attention, leading them to be more liable to be arrested and so on), the bias may feed upon itself.

    This is a substantial problem in democratic societies, but it is a problem where there are at least some counteracting tendencies. The great advantage of democracy is its openness to contrary opinions and divergent perspectives. This opens up democracy to a specific set of destabilizing attacks but it also means that there are countervailing tendencies to self-reinforcing biases. When there are groups that are victimized by such biases, they may mobilize against it (although they will find it harder to mobilize against algorithms than overt discrimination). When there are obvious inefficiencies or social, political or economic problems that result from biases, then there will be ways for people to point out these inefficiencies or problems.

    These correction tendencies will be weaker in authoritarian societies; in extreme versions of authoritarianism, they may barely even exist. Groups that are discriminated against will have no obvious recourse. Major mistakes may go uncorrected: they may be nearly invisible to a state whose data is polluted both by the means employed to observe and classify it, and the policies implemented on the basis of this data. A plausible feedback loop would see bias leading to error leading to further bias, and no ready ways to correct it. This of course, will be likely to be reinforced by the ordinary politics of authoritarianism, and the typical reluctance to correct leaders, even when their policies are leading to disaster. The flawed ideology of the leader (We must all study Comrade Xi thought to discover the truth!) and of the algorithm (machine learning is magic!) may reinforce each other in highly unfortunate ways.

    In short, there is a very plausible set of mechanisms under which machine learning and related techniques may turn out to be a disaster for authoritarianism, reinforcing its weaknesses rather than its strengths, by increasing its tendency to bad decision making, and reducing further the possibility of negative feedback that could help correct against errors. This disaster would unfold in two ways. The first will involve enormous human costs: self-reinforcing bias will likely increase discrimination against out-groups, of the sort that we are seeing against the Uighur today. The second will involve more ordinary self-ramifying errors, that may lead to widespread planning disasters, which will differ from those described in Scott’s account of High Modernism in that they are not as immediately visible, but that may also be more pernicious, and more damaging to the political health and viability of the regime for just that reason.

    So in short, this conjecture would suggest that the conjunction of AI and authoritarianism (has someone coined the term ‘aithoritarianism’ yet? I’d really prefer not to take the blame), will have more or less the opposite effects of what people expect. It will not be Singapore writ large, and perhaps more brutal. Instead, it will be both more radically monstrous and more radically unstable.

    Like all monotheoretic accounts, you should treat this post with some skepticism – political reality is always more complex and muddier than any abstraction. There are surely other effects (another, particularly interesting one for big countries such as China, is to relax the assumption that the state is a monolith, and to think about the intersection between machine learning and warring bureaucratic factions within the center, and between the center and periphery).Yet I think that it is plausible that it at least maps one significant set of causal relationships, that may push (in combination with, or against, other structural forces) towards very different outcomes than the conventional wisdom imagines. Comments, elaborations, qualifications and disagreements welcome.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  27. #117
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    If accurate, Aylward's report is promising, but as the Chinese adage goes, it's too early to say
    It is too early to say. Let's just hope there won't be a second tidal wave like the H1N1 outbreak of 1918 that did the vast majority of the killing.

    Yes, you absolutely can
    With a population approaching 20 million just in metro Wuhan, and close to 60 million in Hubei Province, how exactly is that done? Given that we are dealing with a new virus, that noone had any idea how contagious it was, how it spread, how lethal it was, etc., what exactly would you have done?

    I am in no way exonerating the political manipulation that went on at first, but once data started coming in, all resources were brought to bear to contain it. Now....finger-pointing aside, what does it say about all the other governments and health organizations who have had several months to see how the infection unfolded in China, and what it takes to contain it (for the time being), and STILL be clueless about what they're dealing with?

    Here in the States, we still have people saying this is all media hype and trotting out statistics on how many people die from influenza which gets much less coverage. Ignorance is bliss......until you or someone you know gets sick.

    The time for recriminations can come later, AFAIAC. This is happening, governments and health organizations can either chose to move quickly and decisively, or suffer the consequences.
    High Plains Drifter

  28. #118
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Pelosi and Schumer, the Congressional Democratic leadership, have a decent outline for a federal response to the crisis.



    Trump meanwhile suggested bailing out various industries from the top, among other proposals that no one else in his government appears to have been informed of.


    Re: Chinese response, a more general examination of digital authoritarianism that I posted weeks ago.
    China's power in the Web isn't due to previously unknown astute use of AI. It's due to having an army of tech-savvy nationalists. Chinese nationalism is a strong identity in China, with its nearest equivalent being the extreme patriots in the US who hold the flag sacred. Except that it's the rule rather than the exception. With enough of them technically educated, they can do things that you don't need AI to do.

  29. #119
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Our Health Minister has the virus.

  30. #120
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Our Health Minister has the virus.
    For those oversees this is not the same person as the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock - it is Nadine Dorries.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

    [IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]

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