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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

  1. #121

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Cute.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Our Health Minister has the virus.
    Oh?

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    Matt Gaetz Wore a Gas Mask to Mock Coronavirus Concerns. Now He’s in Quarantine.



    “HE’S DEFINITELY MELTING DOWN OVER THIS”: TRUMP, GERMAPHOBE IN CHIEF, STRUGGLES TO CONTROL THE COVID-19 STORY

    Ever since the coronavirus exploded outside of China at the end of January, Donald Trump has treated the public health crisis as a media war that he could win with the right messaging. But with cases now documented in 34 states and markets plunging, Republicans close to Trump fear his rosy assessments are fundamentally detached from reality in ways that will make the epidemic worse. “He is trying to control the narrative and he can’t,” a former West Wing official told me.

    The problem is that the crisis fits into his preexisting and deeply held worldview—that the media is always searching for a story to bring him down. Covid-19 is merely the latest instance, and he’s reacting in familiar ways. “So much FAKE NEWS!” Trump tweeted this morning. “He wants Justice to open investigations of the media for market manipulation,” a source close to the White House told me. Trump is also frustrated with his West Wing for not getting a handle on the news cycle. “He’s very frustrated he doesn’t have a good team around him,” a former White House official said. On Friday he forced out acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and replaced him with former House Freedom Caucus chair Mark Meadows. Trump thought the virus was “getting beyond Mick,” a person briefed on the internal discussions said. Trump has also complained that economic adviser Larry Kudlow is not doing enough to calm jittery markets. Last week Kudlow refused Trump’s request that Kudlow hold an on-camera press briefing, sources said. “Larry didn’t want to have to take questions about coronavirus,” a person close to Kudlow told me. “Larry’s not a doctor. How can he answer questions about something he doesn’t know?”

    Trump found a willing surrogate in Kellyanne Conway, but Conway’s dubious claim on Friday that the virus “is being contained” only made the P.R. situation worse.

    Trump’s efforts to take control of the story himself have so far failed. A source said Trump was pleased with ratings for the Fox News town hall last Thursday, but he was furious with how he looked on television. “Trump said afterwards that the lighting was bad,” a source briefed on the conversation said. “He said, ‘We need Bill Shine back in here. Bill would never allow this.’”

    Trump’s press conference on Friday at the CDC was a Trumpian classic, heavy on braggadocio and almost entirely lacking a sense of the seriousness of the crisis. “I like this stuff. I really get it,” Trump told reporters, his face partly hidden under a red “Keep America Great” hat. “People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors say, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should’ve done that instead of running for president.” At another point Trump compared the situation to the Ukraine shakedown. “The [coronavirus] tests are all perfect. Like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect,” he said.
    Stories about Trump’s coronavirus fears have spread through the White House. Last week Trump told aides he’s afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One, a person close to the administration told me.
    Pressure from the public health community is mounting on Trump to cancel his mass rallies, but Trump is pushing back. “He is going to resist until the very last minute,” a former West Wing official said. “He may take suggestions to stop shaking hands, but in terms of shutting stuff down, his position is: ‘No, I’m not going to do it.’”

    Get angry you sons of b*****s.



    EDIT:

    Oh crud. Samurai, you're going to be tickled by this one.

    European solidarity meets Covid19: China donates 100,000 masks to Italy. Germany bans export of surgical masks. Europe not coming to Italy’s rescue when it was needed will be remembered by voters for a very long time.
    But Germany letting Italy down is a tradition of deep antiquity.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-11-2020 at 01:49.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  2. #122

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    My concert is not getting cancelled because the CDC hasn't said there is a problem yet lol. So they have hand sanitizer dispensers everywhere and called it a day.
    Since I either go and enjoy myself or lose out on a lot of money out of fear, I guess I am going.

    I've told all my relatives that I will not be seeing them for several weeks and my work is majority remote/away from people.


  3. #123
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    There is a Hail Mary upside to all of this in the USA. Bear with me.

    The most Trumpian of Trump supporters are the older with generally crappier jobs.
    They also love Fox News and tend to believe it.
    They won't be able to get treatment even if they acknowledged they were ill.

    So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so - in their seat in front of the TV with their favourite gun in their arms.

    I don't know it would be enough to truly alter the outcome of an election - but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."

    Last edited by rory_20_uk; 03-11-2020 at 13:52.
    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  4. #124
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Question for Strike..and others:
    It is one thing to yell fire in a crowded theater, is it the same to tell young mothers that vaccines will make their baby autistic?
    Would be nearly impossible to prove.

    [Rumors] Mortality rate in Italy reaching 8%, Wartime triage no one over 65 with comorbidites being given oxygen [Rumors]
    So If China says the mortality rate is 3.4% we can safely assume it is 5-6%.


    Who wants to play with numbers?

    %of people over 65:
    Italy 23
    China 9
    USA 15
    UK 18

    % of Smokers (Note this skews older and does not include quttiers)
    Italy 23
    China 28 Including more than half of all men!
    USA 15
    UK 14

    % of Hypertension
    Italy 36%
    China 26%
    USA 45%
    Uk 27%

    Note that the US has a lower bar for hypertension than Europe and China

    Obesity Rate:
    Italy 21%
    China 6%
    USA 40%
    UK 29%

    So while the Chinese be slow playing the actual numbers but lets trust their sex difference numbers in mortaility 2.8% for women 4.7% for men. HERE is the interesting part. When you account for the fact that more Chinese women are 65+ and add into the fact that more than 94% of the total smokers are men, that really stars to dovetail.

    Now we have the case of 38 year old recovered marathon runner in Italy who was critical for a while. When the backtracked his infection they found he ran a marathon after he had come into contact with the virus. For those of who don't know, running a marathon is hell on the body.

    the Stress on the immune system causes blood pressures issues which exacerbates things for people with taxed cardio systems already. A lot of the people dying in the US are doing so because of multiple heart attacks. Also there is a theory that people who are medication for hypertension are more prone to the virus becuase of something to do with ace inhibitors.

    These hypertension and obese stats skew older as well.

    My advice, slow down the hardcore working out, slam some vitman c, get enough sleep, and relax

    however this is just mortality rate there is always the possibility you end up in ICU with a tube for a couple months, not fun. This is also why flattening the curve is so god damned important.

    Someone @RORY so he can dispel my fear mongering
    Last edited by Strike For The South; 03-11-2020 at 13:22.
    There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford

    My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.

    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

  5. #125
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    There is a Hail Mary upside to all of this in the USA. Bear with me.

    The most Trumpian of Trump supporters are the older with generally crappier jobs.
    They also love Fox News and tend to believe it.
    They won't be able to get treatment even if they acknowledged they were ill.

    So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so - in their seat in front of the TV with their favourite gun in their arms.

    I don't know it would be enough to truly alter the outcome of an election - but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."

    How remainer of you.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
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  6. #126
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    So with a lot of luck, perhaps we'll see a vast number of Trump voters dying over the next month or so
    Not sure things have to get that draconian to see Trump retired to some dacha in the USSR I think the dagger in his heart comes from his crony Pence, when he makes a total cluster@#$% of our effort to contain this (read my earlier link to how badly he botched an HIV outbreak back in 2015 when he was governor of Indiana).

    Strike....got some links for all those numbers? Not that I don't agree with them, but I'm too lazy to search for them myself
    High Plains Drifter

  7. #127
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    There will probably be a few more deaths once all this is over. With the bill sent to the victims' families.
    Do they still charge them for the pistol bullet used to execute their family member as they did back in the 20th?
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  8. #128
    Senior Member Senior Member Kurando's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    but quote Bill Hicks - "Fucking celebrate. There's one less moron in the world."
    I've watched ALIENS at least 20 times; Hicks never said that... Fake news!!
    Modern civilization is a vast conspiracy against silence

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  9. #129
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    It's a global pandemic now, announced by the WHO.
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

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  10. #130
    Senior Member Senior Member Kurando's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    It's a global pandemic now, announced by the WHO.
    I know about 50 people well enough to call them "family or close friends" so once I personally know three of them who have actually died from COVID-19 then I will wholeheartedly join the WHO in declaring a global pandemic. Until then as far as I am concerned this topic is just fear porn.
    Modern civilization is a vast conspiracy against silence

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  11. #131
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Do they still charge them for the pistol bullet used to execute their family member as they did back in the 20th?
    I'm assuming that they do. Beijing doesn't tend to like it when the regional governments bugger up and cover up.

  12. #132

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Strike, bad news....

    Coronavirus mortality (found somewhere)




    About Italy, medical guidance for the emergency there:

    The Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care just published the most extraordinary medical document I’ve ever seen.

    To help people from Germany to America understand what we’re about to face, I am publishing translated extracts here.

    Background: A week ago, Italy had so few cases of corona that it could give each stricken patient high-quality care. Today, some hospitals are so overwhelmed that they simply cannot treat every patient. They are starting to do wartime triage.

    Here’s the guidance for that.

    "It may be necessary to establish criteria of access to intensive care not just on the basis of clinical appropriateness but inspired by the most consensual criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources."
    "This scenario is substantially comparable to the field of 'catastrophe medicine,' for which ethical reflection has over time stipulated many concrete guidelines for doctors and nurses facing difficult choices."

    "In a context of grave shortage of medical resources, the allocation criteria need to guarantee that those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success will retain access to intensive care. It's a matter of giving priority to 'the highest hope of life and survival.'"

    Recommendations:

    1) The extraordinary criteria of admission and discharge are flexible and can be adapted in accordance with the local availability of resources. These criteria apply to all patients in intensive care, not just those infected with CoVid-19.

    2) "Allocation is a very complex and delicate choice. […] The foreseeable increase in mortality for clinical conditions not linked to the current epidemic due to the reduction of chirurgical activity and the scarcity of resources needs to be taken into consideration."

    3) "It may become necessary to establish an age limit for access to intensive care. This is not a value judgments but a way to provide extremely scarce resources to those who have the highest likelihood of survival and could enjoy the largest number of life-years saved."
    "This is informed by the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number.
    In case of a total saturation of resources, maintaining the criterion of 'first come, first served' would amount to a decision to exclude late-arriving patients from access to intensive care."


    4) "In addition to age, the presence of comorbidities needs to be carefully evaluated. It is conceivable that what might be a relatively short treatment course in healthier people could be longer and more resource-consuming in the case of older or more fragile patients."
    "For patients for whom access to intensive care is judged inappropriate, the decision to posit a ceiling of care nevertheless needs to be explained, communicated, and documented."
    I spent many years sitting in seminar rooms thinking about questions of distributive justice. Let me be honest: It’s left me not one bit wiser about what to do in these kinds of dramatic circumstances. So I don’t don’t mean to pass judgment on the contents of this document. BUT here’s the point I do want everyone to take away from this:

    Doctors in America will likely be faced with similarly heartbreaking dilemmas very soon.

    But we can avoid that if we:.

    * Start engaging in extreme forms of social distancing
    * Radically expand ICU capacities

    The moral choices involved in figuring out who gets care when hospitals do not have the resources to treat all critical patients are heart-breaking. But the moral choices involved in doing what we can today to avert that situation are straightforward.

    Cancel everything now.

    This is the type of shit Rory dreams of, right?

    Another expert thread on potential overwhelming of healthcare capacity.

    The federal response has been downright criminal.


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    On the other side of the country in Seattle, Dr. Chu and her flu study colleagues, unwilling to wait any longer, decided to begin running samples.

    A technician in the laboratory of Dr. Lea Starita who was testing samples soon got a hit.

    “I’m like, ‘Oh my God,’” Dr. Starita said. “I just took off running” to the office of the study’s program managers. “We got one,” she told them. “What do we do?”

    Members of the research group discussed the ethics of what to do next.

    “What we were allowed to do was to keep it to ourselves,” Dr. Chu said. “But what we felt like we needed to do was to tell public health.”

    They decided the right thing to do was to inform local health officials.

    The case was a teenager, in the same county where the first coronavirus case had surfaced, who had a flu swab just a few days before but had no travel history and no link to any known case.

    The state laboratory, finally able to begin testing, confirmed the result the next morning. The teenager, who had recovered from his illness, was located and informed just after he entered his school building. He was sent home and the school was later closed as a precaution.


    Later that day, the investigators and Seattle health officials gathered with representatives of the C.D.C. and the F.D.A. to discuss what happened. The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist remembered. “Stop testing.”
    My remaining grandparent is bedridden and relies on home care, so buckle up, this is gonna get sexy.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-11-2020 at 20:38.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  13. #133
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Until then as far as I am concerned this topic is just fear porn
    .....or just got back from the Delta Quadrant.....

    Italy---first case found at the end of Jan/beginning of Feb; in less than 6 weeks the number of confirmed cases 10,149 (and rising) 631 deaths (and rising) 6.2% fatality rate

    Iran---first cases sometime at the beginning of Feb; in less than 6 weeks the number of confirmed cases (and one can assume this is a gross under reporting) 9000 (and rising) 354 deaths (and rising) 3.9% fatality rate

    China---first case sometime near the end of Dec; in just under 12 weeks the number of confirmed cases 80,969 (still rising, but much more slowly) 3,162 deaths a 3.9% fatality rate

    USA---as yet to be seen how bad it will get

    But hell...it's all just fear porn
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-11-2020 at 21:39.
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  14. #134
    Senior Member Senior Member Kurando's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    USA---as yet to be seen how bad it will get

    But hell...it's all just fear porn
    Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility as per SARS H1N1 Y2K, etc etc etc... Besides, if it's a real threat there is zero chance that any government or health organization is equipped to do anything about it on a national level, let alone on a global level. Mark my words: it's BS + wake me when it's over...
    Modern civilization is a vast conspiracy against silence

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  15. #135

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurando View Post
    Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility as per SARS H1N1 Y2K, etc etc etc... Besides, if it's a real threat there is zero chance that any government or health organization is equipped to do anything about it on a national level, let alone on a global level. Mark my words: it's BS + wake me when it's over...
    Ill-considered post. What's worse is that you name a number of problems that were solved with the sustained worldwide commitment of thousands of experts and billions of dollars.


    Speaking of which, what Obama made and Trump destroyed:

    When Ebola broke out in West Africa in 2014, President Barack Obama recognized that responding to the outbreak overseas, while also protecting Americans at home, involved multiple U.S. government departments and agencies, none of which were speaking to one another. Basically, the U.S. pandemic infrastructure was an enormous orchestra full of talented, egotistical players, each jockeying for solos and fame, refusing to rehearse, and demanding higher salaries—all without a conductor. To bring order and harmony to the chaos, rein in the agency egos, and create a coherent multiagency response overseas and on the homefront, Obama anointed a former vice presidential staffer, Ronald Klain, as a sort of “epidemic czar” inside the White House, clearly stipulated the roles and budgets of various agencies, and placed incident commanders in charge in each Ebola-hit country and inside the United States. The orchestra may have still had its off-key instruments, but it played the same tune.

    Building on the Ebola experience, the Obama administration set up a permanent epidemic monitoring and command group inside the White House National Security Council (NSC) and another in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS)—both of which followed the scientific and public health leads of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the diplomatic advice of the State Department.

    On the domestic front, the real business of assuring public health and safety is a local matter, executed by state, county, and city departments that operate under a mosaic of laws and regulations that vary jurisdiction by jurisdiction. Some massive cities, such as New York City or Boston, have large budgets, clear regulations, and epidemic experiences that have left deep benches of medical and public health talent. But much of the United States is less fortunate on the local level, struggling with underfunded agencies, understaffing, and no genuine epidemic experience. Large and small, America’s localities rely in times of public health crisis on the federal government.

    Bureaucracy matters. Without it, there’s nothing to coherently manage an alphabet soup of agencies housed in departments ranging from Defense to Commerce, Homeland Security to Health and Human Services (HHS).

    But that’s all gone now.

    In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

    In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers go unreplaced.

    Public health advocates have been ringing alarm bells to no avail.Public health advocates have been ringing alarm bells to no avail. Klain has been warning for two years that the United States was in grave danger should a pandemic emerge. In 2017 and 2018, the philanthropist billionaire Bill Gates met repeatedly with Bolton and his predecessor, H.R. McMaster, warning that ongoing cuts to the global health disease infrastructure would render the United States vulnerable to, as he put it, the “significant probability of a large and lethal modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.” And an independent, bipartisan panel formed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies concluded that lack of preparedness was so acute in the Trump administration that the “United States must either pay now and gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs.”
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  16. #136

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    One of these is very unlike the others.



    Thoughts and prayers solicited.

    Edit: Image cropped errantly, replaced
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-12-2020 at 03:56.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



  17. #137
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

    [IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]

  18. #138
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Considering how constantly and thoroughly we are lied to & manipulated by the mainstream media I have no interest in any of this
    Logical if you're using this guy as a source:

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/11/p...est/index.html

    I have no interest in any of this. If it actually manifests significantly in my life (or even in yours) I will take notice; until then I am hesitant to give this malarkey any credibility
    Wow
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-12-2020 at 08:57.
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  19. #139
    Member Member Gilrandir's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I strongly object to the insipid thread title. I suggest "weareallgonnadie" instead.
    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    The article exists for a reason yes, I did not write it...

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  20. #140
    Old Town Road Senior Member Strike For The South's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    My math was quick napkin math.

    Monty, A 100% infection and 6.1 million deaths would be a 3% fatality rate. I hope and pray the rate is that low. I also think 100% infection is impossible 70% is probably the best number.

    22 million would be an abject fucking disaster
    There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford

    My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.

    I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.

  21. #141
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    My math was quick napkin math.

    Monty, A 100% infection and 6.1 million deaths would be a 3% fatality rate. I hope and pray the rate is that low. I also think 100% infection is impossible 70% is probably the best number.

    22 million would be an abject fucking disaster
    Currently we're still very much in the growth phase of this epidemic, it's likely that lots of cases are going undetected. In the UK we have tested over 29,764 people and found 590 cases, of which 10 have died. The relatively low detection rate and the fact that the disease is still spreading indicates that we are missing cases, and possibly that it is not quite as infectious as we feared.

    Once 70% of the population has actually had the bug we will have a much better understanding of the mortality rate. As things stand mortality is probably over-estimated. That being said, a lot of grandparents are going to die, and there's probably going to be another wave if we get it under control and possibly every year until we have an effective vaccine - if we have one.

    Long-term, this may be the end of the West's miraculous and ever-lengthening lifespan. This will have big societal and economic impacts if it is the case - maybe we'll start valuing our elders again.
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  22. #142
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    This appears to be a single phase virus, not a double whammy like the Spanish Flu. We are most certainly at the front end of the spread phase everywhere outside of Iran and South Central China. I think the deaths will be higher at this phase as the unknown and undiscovered spread will catch those most likely to be harmed with the least warning. Anywhere that is not already overwhelmed in terms of critical care service (like Northern Italy or Wuhan) should obviously be gearing up for a wave of patients in a comparatively short time frame.
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  23. #143
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    This will have big societal and economic impacts if it is the case - maybe we'll start valuing our elders again
    I'm of Italian descent, and my grandparents/aunts/uncles were always a big part of my life, and I'm thankful for that to this day.

    This appears to be a single phase virus, not a double whammy like the Spanish Flu
    Some links to this would be appreciated

    ....and IIRC, the H1N1 of 1918 was a triple whammy.
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-12-2020 at 17:08.
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  24. #144
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Gilrandir View Post
    I strongly object to the insipid thread title. I suggest "weareallgonnadie" instead.
    Sure, if we concomitantly rename the Ukraine thread to "Putin will kill all Ukrainians".

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    The relatively low detection rate and the fact that the disease is still spreading indicates that we are missing cases, and possibly that it is not quite as infectious as we feared.
    The UK, like almost any country in Europe except Italy, is early in its outbreak; and given that a lot of infected people are quarantined in some form, the virus is at a disadvantage compared to the flu.

    As things stand mortality is probably over-estimated.
    Which figure? As I posted earlier, there are good reasons to believe that the virus can kill 1-2% of those infected. Of course, this number is tightly connected to the treatment the patients receive; how good, and how early.

    According to the source I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level:

    Nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day for coronavirus in South Korea, more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.

    Rachel's sample is quickly shipped off to a nearby laboratory where staff are working 24 hours a day to process the results.
    There is no shortage of testing kits in South Korea. Four companies have been given approval to make them. It means the country has the capacity to test 140,000 samples a week.
    This means that

    1) Potentially vulnerable patients can be discovered early and given treatment early, driving the fatality rate down
    2) Fewer hospitals are overwhelmed as more people can be quarantined, also driving the fatality rate down
    3) The fatality rate is more accurate

    If 5 percent of all infected cases are potentially critical, then the fatality rate will creep towards 5 percent locally if hospitals get overwhelmed. On the other hand, if treatment is effective, the fatality rate will creep towards a figure somewhere below 1 percent.
    Last edited by Viking; 03-12-2020 at 18:43.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Never mind about the links...found a few myself, including this one:

    https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/

    Not overly technical, and definitely able to get the general gist of what these lab geeks are talking about.

    And then near the end of the discussion, there's this:

    The Seattle Flu Study had screened viruses from all over the greater Seattle area, however, we got the positive hit in Snohomish County with cases less than 15 miles apart. This by itself would only be suggestive, but combined with the genetic data, is firm evidence for continued transmission. I've been referring to this scenario as "cryptic transmission". This is a technical term meaning "undetected transmission".
    We believe this may have occurred by the WA1 case having exposed someone else to the virus in the period between Jan 15 and Jan 19 before they were isolated. If this second case was mild or asymptomatic, contact tracing efforts by public health would have had difficulty detecting it. After this point, community spread occurred and was undetected due to the CDC narrow case definition that required direct travel to China or direct contact with a known case to even be considered for testing. This lack of testing was a critical error and allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected. Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.
    We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic. China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.
    What will be interesting to see, in the coming weeks, is if the "don't tread on me" mentality here in the US is up to the task of doing without sports, schools, and other such large gatherings; and if/when situations arise for "lock-downs", how confrontational things will get The Aussie's, for instance, have instituted some pretty steep fines for breaking quarantine....

    Another interesting read quoting folks from the same medical research center as above:

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...deadly-disease

    “The nature of viruses is to mutate,” said Bedford, explaining that as these microorganisms rapidly reproduce, genetic errors can occur. But these aren’t the scary mutations that wipe out billions of people like in Hollywood films. “The vast majority of these mutations are absolutely meaningless,” said Emma Hodcroft, an epidemiologist who collaborates with NextStrain and is based at the University of Basel in Switzerland, “but they are useful to help us see how the virus travels and changes.”
    Nextstrain also indicates that the coronavirus, once it took hold in Wuhan and other locales, spread quickly as it proliferated around the world and infected more people. “So far there’s no evidence to assume that you’ll see a different pattern from Wuhan,” said Neher about locales outside of China, helping countries, politicians, and medical professionals make more concerted efforts in far-flung areas of the world. “This is going to grow exponentially wherever it appears,” Neher added, “and it will hit you hard. Italy got hit hard. Korea got hit hard.”
    Richard Neher [an evolutionary biologist] also cautions that the number of samples that have been genetically sequenced and included on the Nextstrain site remains small—it currently stands at 326 samples. “This means we are missing information,” he said. “The data is also not collected evenly everywhere since some countries have more of an ability to sequence, and some aren’t focusing on sequencing while they are trying to treat the infected.” This means that Nextstrain does not offer up a complete picture of how the virus is evolving, although it can offer up clues.
    So where is the virus headed? “We are seeing exponential growth,” said Bedford, talking about the spread of cases where people have been infected, “with a doubling every seven days. So we’re going from 500 to a thousand to 2,000, et cetera, but the thing that makes it hard to predict, and why I’m only comfortable with forecasting a week or two out, is that I'm expecting large social changes to just be happening,” meaning that efforts to quarantine, work from home, and limit travel can lessen the pace of exposure.
    “We know that what China did had a huge impact,” he added, referring to the extreme measures to essentially quarantine millions of people. “How strong of an impact comes out of what we will do [in North America] in terms of mitigation efforts is hard to predict. If people”—meaning the government and medical community as well as individuals—“did nothing, the natural progression is that half of people will get infected over the course of the coming months, just like you have a flu season every winter.”
    “Right now the U.S. has the highest case-to-fatality ratio in the world,” said Emma Hodcroft. “That is not because it’s somehow worse in the U.S., it’s just because we have done a bad job at testing enough cases up until this point.” As of Monday, the U.S. had tested only a few thousand people. This compares to 189,000 people tested in South Korea.
    Sobering
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-12-2020 at 18:45.
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    Senior Member Senior Member Kurando's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    What will be interesting to see, in the coming weeks, is if the "don't tread on me" mentality here in the US is up to the task of doing without sports, schools, and other such large gatherings; and if/when situations arise for "lock-downs", how confrontational things will get
    It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

    People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.
    Modern civilization is a vast conspiracy against silence

  27. #147
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Viking View Post
    Sure, if we concomitantly rename the Ukraine thread to "Putin will kill all Ukrainians".
    Not a fan of gallows humour, then?

    Which figure? As I posted earlier, there are good reasons to believe that the virus can kill 1-2% of those infected. Of course, this number is tightly connected to the treatment the patients receive; how good, and how early.

    According to the source I am currently looking at, South Korea now has a case fatality rate of 0.84%. This a country that has taken testing to an extreme level:
    I was referring to the apparent mortality rates vs the number of detected cases being around 3-4%. Now that the Northern Hemisphere is starting to warm flu season should come to an end and cases should become more apparent.


    The UK has just advised anyone with a "new" persistent cough to self-isolate for 7 days, but everybody in the country right now has a cough or runny nose. @Idaho will confirm that Exeter is pretty miserable right now and you can get a cough and runny nose just from the cold wind.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurando View Post
    It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

    People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.
    With a mortality rate of 1-2% if properly treated (big if) the disease will probably kill someone you know this year. When was the last time someone you know died of the flu?
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  28. #148
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    You know, if the 50 or so people you claim in your circle of family and friends don't contract this virus, I'm happy for you. But your "yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties" dog just doesn't hunt. The same way that people who drive impaired (which constitutes close to 50% of fatalities worldwide) face the consequences, including jail time, so should people who disregard the social implications of treating a highly infectious disease as "fear porn", as you call it. I don't need to hear the worn excuse that thousands die from the flu every year. We have vaccines, and humans have built up resistances to many flu's over the years.

    COVID-19 is not a flu. It has flu-like symptoms, but it behaves much differently than a flu virus. Two key points being: a) it's a new virus, so we have no natural antibodies to fight it (and vaccines won't be available for quite some time); b) it has a long incubation period as compared to flu viruses, so you can get the doubling effect as described by the Bedford Lab in Seattle, and suddenly you go from 1 case to hundreds and thousands before you even know which way is up (see Italy, South Korea, Iran, etc).

    That's why measures have to be swift, and draconian if necessary. I don't give a damn about your civil liberties if it means thousands of lives can be saved. Just like I don't give a damn about your civil liberties if you get behind the wheel of a vehicle while impaired, and kill someone.
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  29. #149
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurando View Post
    It's like a sputtering engine, but credit for thinking in those terms. If you're able to start considering this as an exercise in control rather than an exercise in epidemiology you're on the right track at least. It's as plain as the nose on your face: yet another sweeping threat to our civil liberties disguised as a threat to our lives.

    People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.
    Does your travelling around contribute to the danger of someone getting killed in an accident? Do you disregard precautions designed to minimise the risk of such accidents? Does your having passed a spot in a car lead to the increased risk of accidents for anyone following some minutes later?

  30. #150

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Kurando View Post
    People should cut the fear out of their minds and cut out the baby talk that goes along with it. On a bad year 1.5 million people die worldwide in motor vehicle accidents; you've got a far far far greater chance of being killed in your car while traveling to get tested for COVID-19 than you do of dying from the virus.
    The statement of probability is emphatically unsubstantiated, to say nothing of the fact that we have, over generations, taken numerous evidence-based regulatory and practical precautions to limit the hazards posed by mass automobile usage.


    Speaking of testing, this is another excellent visualization:

    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


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