Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Shaka_Khan]

Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.

You're ignoring the numbers in Wuhan. The hospitals were overwhelmed.

I'm very dubious on this recurrence

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof. And you shouldn't choose which the official reports are true or false just to illustrate to your liking.

and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.

That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

[ReluctantSamurai]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#

[rory_20_uk]

All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#

And Malaria, TV, cholera... and so on and so on. They kill poor people abroad. The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable.

Just like we don't really care about poor people in general. Respiratory infections that can affect the rich,, affect the old more than others are little treatment works beyond supportive measures is scary.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable

I get that. What I was referring to more was if COVID-19 had started in a third world country with little impact on global economy, instead of China with it's huge global footprint, would the media coverage be the same? I also think that because COVID-19 is new variation of SARS, and because of that, it will take some time for immune systems to learn how to fight it (and no vaccines to combat it, either), we tend to focus on it just for the newness of it

Just like we don't really care about poor people in general

The millions of people carrying smart phones (and the businesses that make them) will certainly take notice if the current Ebola out-break in the DRC reaches the tantalum mines

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof.


That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

[Montmorency]

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

Ervebo sounds good too.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Mother sent me this this evening - I opined that I didn't think gargling was worth much.

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
Last evening dining out with friends, one of their uncles, who's graduated with a master's degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China) sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.
SPREAD THE WORD - PLEASE SHARE.

[Greyblades]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

He was referring to virus spores out in the open, not interacting within the system of a host.

[Montmorency]

That temperature thing doesnt sound right, if it dies at 27 it shouldnt be able to survive base internal body temperature of 34.

The chain mail likely simplified at point of origin, or degraded over time.

According to this work:

Most data were described with the endemic human coronavirus strain (HCoV-) 229E. On different types of materials it can remain infectious for from 2 hours up to 9 days. A higher temperature such as 30°C or 40°C reduced the duration of persistence of highly pathogenic MERS-CoV, TGEV and MHV. However, at 4°C persistence of TGEV and MHV can be increased to ≥ 28 days. Few comparative data obtained with SARS-CoV indicate that persistence was longer with higher inocula (Table I). In addition it was shown at room temperature that HCoV-229E persists better at 50% compared to 30% relative humidity [8].

Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Apparently 'blades' skepticism and Monty's seconding thereof are on point. 26/27 debrees Celsius would likely reduce COVID-19, but NOT eliminate. Apparently temperatures need to be 'north' of 30 to have a profound impact. Article.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Hydrogen peroxide and ethanol still good disinfectants though.

Ethanol needs high concentration to be effective.
Chlorine based cleaners also should do well.

Effectiveness for any type of disinfectant depends on concentration, time, and temperature. Just because you wiped a surface once with a damp paper towel of hydrogen peroxide doesn't mean it is suddenly free of all viruses/spores/bacteria.

[Viking]

Interested to know what others with more knowledge think:

Considering that the whole thing could be fabricated and that there is no way to do a background check on the author, it might be best to treat it as noise and discard it rather than analyze it.

I don't want to speak for the rest of you, and at the risk of sounding self-centered, but COVID-19 is an infinitely-greater hazard to my wellbeing than Ebola.

The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well; 2254 registered deaths per 18 February.

[Beskar]

Surprised no one has posted about the Wuhan-400 conspiracy theory yet.
https://fullfact.org/online/book-did...t-coronavirus/

[ReluctantSamurai]

The most recent outbreak of Ebola might have killed fewer people than COVID-19 as well

Maybe so but, considering the location of the outbreak, it has a chance to be very disruptive to certain areas of the global economy if it spreads to DRC's mine districts. Considering that the DRC produces 30% of the world's tantalum, and neighboring Rwanda 31%, widespread mine closures for any extended length of time, would hit the electronics industry pretty hard. Yet......

......you hardly hear about this because, IMHO, the DRC and Rwanda are relatively poor third world countries.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Huge spike in cases, both in county and state. Link
Positivity rate soaring, especially in county. Link
Vaccination rate among college age below state and national averages. Link

Answer? Open school as usual, normal class modes, on January 10th as scheduled.




An administrator finally said we can use distance learning for the first few weeks...

[Shaka_Khan]

Right now both these claims look alarmist, so far Corvid 19 appears to be a less dangerous disease than SARS or MERS.

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Everything I said above I got from official reports of the doctors or people who are in the location of the trouble zones. I don't think you remember SARS or MERS. I've never seen the world go this extreme with those two cases. Clearly, the governments are now scared to the level never seen before, although a lot of them don't admit it. Actions speak louder than words. If it's alarmist as you claim it to be, what's the motive with quarantining entire cities, making an entire country stay home for several days, and numerous countries blocking or quarantining some nationalities even when they're not showing to have the virus? This is a very unusual one in which it's hard to detect during its incubation period, and it can spread during that incubation period. And it has shown that the symptoms can return after the supposed recovery. Remember, the population of Wuhan was larger than the largest city in the United States before millions evacuated Wuhan (before the quarantine began). And remember that the Chinese government originally tried to hide the outbreak. Look at the extreme measures it took when the epidemic could no longer be hidden.

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that - not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

100% infection rate at 3% death rate would result in roughly 23.4 million deaths.

Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

[a completely inoffensive name]

Again, death rate is currently estimated at 1%, many who become infected are a-symptomatic and there's no guarantee everyone will become infected.

So...

If you are under 40 the chance of dying is much slimmer.
The 5 deaths in Washington state are from elderly and compromised individuals.

What we should be discussing is how we respond to the growing number of epidemics which will without a doubt continue to arise.
The global population is aging and will be more susceptible to these outbreaks over time. Last time I checked only 3% of American workers work remote/from home.

How do we restructure our work and government institutions to prevent an even more dangerous virus from spreading without having to resort to large scale quarantine and a halt on production.

I'll admit I bought into the fear a little bit and just stocked up on about a month of canned goods. But I am not afraid of dying from the virus, more afraid of that loss of production.

[Shaka_Khan]

I vividly remember SARS and MERS - those did not cause such disruption because they were stomped on relatively quickly and didn't spread as much. Part of the reason they spread less is because symptoms were more extreme and they killed people more quickly, and more frequently. World governments are concerned with Corvid-19 because of the potential disruption it will cause and the economic and social fallout from that

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.

- not because the disease is a super-bug that's going to kill millions.

The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.



The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

So you think I do remember SARS, then?

It's like the flu, the infection rate is high because it's not that dangerous.

[Viking]

Status report from South Korea:

Hospitals in South Korea’s hardest hit areas were scrambling to accommodate the surge in new patients.

In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

[Shaka_Khan]

There seems to be a mutation.

Don't be a jerk.

You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.