Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

We all know that. You're actually agreeing with us now.



The infection rate is very high because it can spread during the incubation period, the incubation period is long, and it's hard to detect during that period. Thus, even if the percentage is low, that low percentage would represent a larger number because of the larger number of infections when compared to SARS and MERS.

So you think I do remember SARS, then?

It's like the flu, the infection rate is high because it's not that dangerous.

[Viking]

Status report from South Korea:

Hospitals in South Korea’s hardest hit areas were scrambling to accommodate the surge in new patients.

In Daegu, 2,300 people were waiting to be admitted to hospitals and temporary medical facilities, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said. A 100-bed military hospital that had been handling many of the most serious cases was due to have 200 additional beds available by Thursday, he added.

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

[Beskar]

Got to admit, my upcoming holiday might end up cancelled/railroaded because the main attractions are barring people from 'affected countries' which kind of spoils the whole point of going to those places.

But there is a discussion about there being two strains of the virus. One is the aggressive form and the other is the milder. It seems the aggressive one is the one dying out.

[rory_20_uk]

Status report from South Korea:



Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.


On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

Given the USA generally has expensive hospitals and no safety net for ill people, I think you'll get a massive problem with isolating people since many can't afford the time off.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The Telegraph is reporting that there are now two distinct strains of the virus, S and L - L is newer, more infectious and more agreesive (no word yet on if it's more deadly) where S is milder. You can catch both, which explains this "reinfection" - these people are actually catching two diseases.

[Montmorency]

Watch this clip of Trump briefed on the coronavirus, then watch the first two minutes of this video.


And all these people have always blown and always will.

Historian Kevin Kruse points out that after Jonas Salk developed the polio vaccine, Democrats proposed distributing it for free to every child under 19. Over email, Kruse writes that Oveta Culp Hobby, a Texas millionaire and Dwight D. Eisenhower’s secretary of health, education, and welfare, fought back, calling free distribution “socialized medicine by the back door.”

Status report from South Korea:

Thousands wait for hospital beds in South Korea as coronavirus cases surge

Unless there are confounding factors at play in Daegu, and unless Washington state is more capable of handling an outbreak like this, this could be Washington state in a couple of weeks. The spreading there is firmly not under control.

One obvious important potential confounding factor is what kind of symptoms are deemed as requiring hospitalization in Daegu vs. Washington.

I'm interested to hear how North Korea is handling things. Will the population be evacuated en masse to a network of tunnels and bunkers? [Props to whoever gets the reference]

On an unrelated note, there are now 15 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city where I live (Northern Italy appears to be a very popular destination here), which could place it in the upper half of this list of global infection rates at the country level. Yikes.

The contemporary parlance is "big yikes."

In my city, the government has contingency plans for prison labor to dig mass graves for up to 51,000 corpses. I'm sure PVC appreciates these moments when nothing is new under the sun.

[rory_20_uk]

The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.

[ReluctantSamurai]

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked

And you can take THAT to the bank

"Old men running the world....Old men are the future."

BTW...it took 20 months to develop a SARS vaccine, and 6 months for a Zika vaccine:

http://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/28/he...s-vaccine.html

“You have to be brave and you have to be a solid company to do this, because there is no real incentive to do this, no financial incentive,”

Not sure what this statement means

[a completely inoffensive name]

Basically, we expand healthcare capacity to cope - we've been cutting back on it for too long - like everything else.
We also stop buying into the "global economy" with such enthusiasm.
There are far more catastrophic diseases like Ash Dieback currently raging through Europe.

The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.

The Pharma executives - especially knowing their audience - really didn't help themselves by mentioning first in man when they were asked about time to deploy. Yes, it's a complex area and they're mainly used to dealing with other highly trained individuals. But they surely know when they are faced with Donnie Dumbo to Dumb It Down. A LOT. Start with the "it'll probably take over a year" and then perhaps mention some of the initial steps required. Not that the Donald cares of course.

But then they're probably often the Commercial people who know a lot less and are probably angling from some commercial advantage for getting something fast tracked.

I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The global economy has done more to improve healthcare for people than anything else. 1/3rd of Europe died from a plague back when they were relatively isolated from Asia with the exception the silk road paths. I think today's level of connections have proven to be far better for everyone. Insert joke about British obviously not understanding this in light of Brexit.

The US has had entire species decimated as well by Asian and European species invading the local ecosystem. We are trying to genetically engineer local species to adapt better.

Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

First UK fatality - woman in her 70's, underlying health condition.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51759602

[Montmorency]

Trump to Hannity on WHO saying coronavirus death rate is 3.4%: "I think the 3.4% number is really a false number. Now this is just my hunch, but based on a lot of conversations ... personally, I'd say the number is way under 1%."

Astoundingly irresponsible.

In this clip, Trump:
1. Denies WHO's coronavirus death rate based on “hunch"
2. Calls coronavirus "corona flu"
3. Suggests it's fine for people w/ Covid-19 to go to work
4. Compares coronavirus to "the regular flu," indicating he doesn't get the difference

"We have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work, some of them go to work, but they get better" -- Trump to Sean Hannity, last night

What is most shocking is that an incompetent response to a disease outbreak is obviously contradictory to Trump's basic political interests, but he and his minions reject a world beyond their immediate awareness; all they know is sneering and vindictive will to power and intimidation. They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission.

Well, people died of Plague because of a lack of healthcare and basic sanitation - and lack of modern antibiotics. On the other hand, the Spanish Flue spread so quickly because of the (already) globalised economy.

Right now people move faster than politicians can react - if we had put a 3-week ban on all non essential travel then the virus would be a lot more contained now. That's not to say that would have been the right thing to do, but to recognise that this is the consequence of globalisation.

Not clear how worthwhile travel restrictions are in limiting spread. But we do know - obviously - they are economically devastating and can dovetail with business and consumer retrenchment to produce counterproductive shocks.

It's also telling that the Trump admin has used the pandemic as cover to expand travel bans to more Muslim or African countries.

[rory_20_uk]

I hear Prince Charles is a bit of a goof, but if you had a meeting with him wouldn't you be overly formal than the opposite?

Charles, bless him, has no real power and is not in charge of a major country's response to a health pandemic. So yes I'd probably lean in to the pageantry and enjoy the silliness of it all.

It is not about being formal or informal, polite or rude. It is about ensuring that the audience grasps the most important points. Dopey Donnie is not very bright. He is also old and probably has small vessel disease. He when at his peak tends to only hear what he wants.

So all this together means the answers should be very simple and focus on the "over a year" rather than "two months until phase I".
No, you can't up the timeline by shouting at it.
No, throwing resources at it probably won't speed things up greatly either - safety data takes time to collect.
Yes, probably best Industry works with the CDC directly on the details whilst you play Big Boy The Apprentice and try to look like a Leader.
Yes, you can hang Mike Pence out to be the fall guy if you want. Just don't let him get in the way.

Don't get me wrong - if I was in Donnie's position the only difference is I'd have cheerfully asked them to coordinate with the CDC in the first place since I know I don't know enough (OK, anything) to have a meaningful input.

[ReluctantSamurai]

They probably truly don't realize that you can't BS a virus into submission

[Shaka_Khan]

There seems to be a mutation.

Don't be a jerk.

You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There seems to be a mutation.




When you go aggressive, I suggest you do it in person. Doing it behind a computer screen doesn't make you look good. You didn't even prove anything, nor is it a big deal whether you remember SARS or not.

I'm not being aggressive, I'm telling you not to tell me what I do or don't remember.