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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

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    Default Coronavirus / COVID-19






    This guy began to report about this outbreak turning into a pandemic since last month. He mentions Thailand still accepting travellers from China. South Korea also still accepts travellers from China. It seems that the South Korean president is hoping for Xi Jinping to visit in order to raise the South Korean president's popularity and win the general election. The trade volume between the two countries is massive. Also, the South Korean president is pro-Communist Party of China. Many Koreans demand the removal of the South Korean president.



    And this guy talks about the economic impact.




    According to some of the whistleblowers in Wuhan, 5 million Wuhan people evacuated the city before the quarantine. The guy in the video below is one of the first whistleblowers after the doctors got arrested to hide the outbreak.

    Wooooo!!!

  2. #2
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.
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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.

    It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.

    Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!

    Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.

    If it gets bad (and I really hope it doesn't) many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society. There are not enough ventilators or trained staff to deal with the patients - let alone proper kit to protect the staff (who would be insane to work in anything less than a proper airtight suit) - are they to be forced in at gun point to work?

    I do pity the CDC et al. 99.99% of the time it will be a different case of the sniffles. And they will be pilloried for making such a fuss. But who knows if or when it could mutate to something far more deadly and then they'll be crucified for not doing more earlier (even though they can hardly mobilise the National Guard).

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    many will die - hopefully just in the thousands. Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society
    Really?

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate

    Eighty-seven percent of patients were aged 30 to 79 years (38,680 cases). This age-group was the most affected by a wide margin, followed by ages 20 to 29 (3,619 cases, or 8%), those 80 and older (1,408 cases, or 3%), and 1% each in ages less than 10 and 10 to 19 years.
    30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....
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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Really?

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...-23-death-rate



    30 to 79 by a "wide margin". While us "old" people are certainly more at risk, the death toll is hardly confined to those whose deaths would be "no biggie to society". And COVID-19 is just getting started outside of China. The age group death ratios may change from those quoted....
    Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    At least the fit and healthy wont have spent the last 4 years in gore filled ditches this time.
    Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.

    At least COVID-19 does not have the deadly "second phase" associated with the 1918 outbreak.
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    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Old or with co-morbidities. When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking.

    Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
    Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
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  9. #9

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Watching the Trump press conference about it today, and I am fairly confident that the US is not ready for this should it hit the US in large numbers.
    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    People are infectious about 2 weeks before they show any symptoms. Symptoms are basically flu-like. And for half the world it is winter.

    It is spread via the airborne route. One sneeze can go 8 metres and the droplets stay airborne for 10 minutes. Masks do little really. Slightly better on someone whose got it.

    Airborne diseases can not realistically be stopped. Ebola was close contact and that took ages. Hell, HIV is only close contact of bodily fluids and we can't block that spreading!

    Every country is doing lip service to the disease. Because doing something that works would cripple the country economically: shut all non essential flights and ships. Close all borders for all but essential travel. Decontaminate things that have to cross the border. Hell, probably have internal borders as well in all but the smallest countries. Forcibly quarantine everyone who has come near an infected person until they are cleared by one (preferably two or more) lab tests.
    Trump press conference yesterday:

    President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that the U.S. is “very, very ready” for whatever the coronavirus threat brings, and he put his vice president in charge of overseeing the nation’s response.
    More:

    In a muddled, dishonest, rambling news conference from the White House press briefing room President Donald Trump for over an hour talked to reporters Wednesday evening about coronavirus, in an attempt to stave off three days of market near-collapse. He lied. He twisted the truth. He displayed little grasp of basic facts. He didn’t let the experts run the show.
    [...]
    The markets on Thursday rewarded his efforts with the DOW posting the largest single day loss in history.
    [...]
    “The losses mark the worse week for U.S. stocks since the financial crash of 2008.
    The Trump administration has known about coronavirus since at least December 1, 2019. It did nothing until January 29, when the White House posted a memo announcing President Trump’s Coronavirus Task Force. The task force did not even include the Surgeon General, making it clear the White House had little interest in communicating to the American people any sense of competence or delivering even an iota of public education.
    [...]
    Trump returned after two days of about 1000 point drops in the DOW each day. He hastily called a press conference for Wednesday at 6 PM. Just after it began at 6:30 PM it became clear there was not going to be a coronavirus czar, there was no real plan, other than to put in charge Vice President Mike Pence. Even a Fox News pundit eschewed that decision, noting Pence doesn’t believe in science, is not a doctor, and has a horrific record when it comes to public health – he oversaw an explosive HIV outbreak during which he decided to pray for guidance rather than listen to what experts told him he had to do.

    And now, as the markets tumble, as Trump lies about the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. and pretends that there might not be “community spread” – the first case of which the CDC literally announced just after Trump’s news conference, it’s become even more clear Trump and his administration aren’t interested in protecting the American public, but rather, they are interesting in appearing to be doing “things” that might make it appear they are protecting the American public – when their goal is to protect the markets.

    That’s why Vice President Pence’s first act as head of the Coronavirus Task Force was to add top and Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow, and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin to the Task Force, along with the Surgeon General (finally).

    Absent from the list: any public health experts, any crisis experts, anyone not from the Trump administration, the CDC, or the NIH. In other words, there is no one on the Trump Coronavirus Task Force the Trump administration cannot control.

    That’s dangerous. It’s dangerous because the administration has already told the federal government all communication, to reporters and others, is to go through Vice President Pence, and it’s dangerous because there is no one who will tell Trump or Pence anything they don’t want to hear.
    Vice President Mike Pence:

    In late 2014, health officials belatedly became aware of an HIV outbreak in Scott County, Indiana. With fewer than 24,000 people, this rural county rarely saw a single new case in a year, according to The New York Times. But by the time government agencies tried to stop the transmission of the virus a few months later, some 215 people had tested positive.

    One man seemed responsible for needlessly letting the situation get out of control: Indiana’s then-Governor Mike Pence. In 2015, when the virus was seeming to rapidly move through networks of people who use intravenous drugs, even the reluctant local sheriff encouraged the governor to authorize a clean-needle exchange, a proven tool to reduce such an outbreak.

    But, as the Times reported when he became Donald Trump’s running mate, “Mr. Pence, a steadfast conservative, was morally opposed to needle exchanges on the grounds that they supported drug abuse.” His opposition was based on an incorrect belief; while research has long shown that needle exchanges do reduce HIV and hepatitis, it has also shown that they do not encourage drug use.

    Pence went home to “pray on it” before he decided to approve a limited needle exchange. Many observers believed that the program acted as a kind of public-health Hail Mary pass, staunching a catastrophic wound that would have gotten much worse.


    What is your professional opinion on these developments rory?

    Mainly the old and sick so frankly no biggie to society.
    Hmmm...
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    When the fit and healthy are dropping like with the 1919 pandemic then I'll properly start panicking
    Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-2...asset/12006078

    And when a journalist pointed out that COVID-19 has a fatality rate of around 2-3 per cent, while the flu is about 0.1 per cent, Trump disagreed. "The flu is much higher than that," he said.
    Spend less time on Twitter blaming the Dems for Wall Streets woes, and more time consulting with health care experts Donnie Baby.....

    "When they look at the statements made by the people standing behind those podiums, I think that has a huge effect."
    The problem with that logic is that the debate happened on Tuesday night (local time), after the markets closed.

    "And we'll essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
    Of course anyone with even a cursory knowledge of immunology knows the process of creating a vaccine takes months...

    "Nothing is inevitable," he stressed. "There's a chance it could be worse. There's a chance it could get fairly, substantially worse, but nothing is inevitable."
    Even as COVID-19 has spread to 50 countries, South Korea announced 505 new cases, Italy reported 650 cases as of Thursday night — up from 400 a day earlier — with 17 deaths, etc., etc., etc.....

    Panic time? Perhaps not yet. Time to prepare for the inevitable? Yep.
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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Ironically enough, the US military (who had less than 18 months of "gore-filled ditch" duty compared to the almost 4 years for some of those fighting for "Blighty") had a higher rate of influenza infection than the UK's military. The USA experienced somewhere between 20% (hospitalized & recovered or died) and an estimated 40% (milder cases, many never hospitalized, with the really mild ones -- pardon the pun -- soldiering on) of active forces. UK rates were lower, with 303k hospitalizations among 4.6 million (USA had over the same hospitalization and a higher overall infection rate despite having 750,000 fewer under arms). US training camps were apparently among the highest infection rates of all.
    Insert joke about american army rations here.
    Being better than the worst does not inherently make you good. But being better than the rest lets you brag.


    Quote Originally Posted by Strike For The South View Post
    Don't be scared that you don't freak out. Be scared when you don't care about freaking out
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    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
    Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
    First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.

    Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?

    Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Hope your leaders are more intelligent and informed than ours
    One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
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    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.

    Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?

    Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.
    You're using an over-wide brush in painting your picture of healthcare in America. All of the issues you note are, indeed, problematic -- but some of them are hardly controllable and you've left other concerns off that might be controllable yet bother us as is.

    Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited). Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact. Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).

    Firearms have been ubiquitous in the USA since before our inception. Sadly, they do make would-be suicides easier and more effective (as you are probably aware, some 60% of our firearm deaths are suicides). The original reasons for personal use of firearms and their ubiquity were food, protection, and as a final stopgap against government tyranny. The need provide food has, except for certain wilderness areas in Alaska, been obviated by modern food production and distribution. Protection, while still valid to some extent, no longer requires the local militia to be armed since the development of modern policing (both protection responses are reactive) and is simply a question of personal defense prior to a police response. The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny, which any number of people think is silly as they believe our government cannot degenerate into tyranny (some few think it already has, but all societies have their fringers). I am not opposed to firearms ownership as I like that final stopgap concept and also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals. That said, I think we might want to seriously consider the requirement that firearms under 15" barrel length be banned/rendered inoperable. Protection against tyranny is best served by weapons that would be useful on a modern battlefield and your typical handgun is largely irrelevant in such a context -- yet it is handguns easily held and used that are the source of most of our suicides and homicides. I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...

    Racism and Xenophobia are problems in the USA, I agree. We have been working on them for hundreds of years and while we have enjoyed much success we are all too prone to backsliding on both. But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either. Do these weaknesses kill people? Absolutely, at least by laying the groundwork that allows people to be mistreated or forgotten or marginalized or even, at least in some cases, specifically targeted for violence. Both concerns are still being better addressed than they were when I was a child. I can assure you that my children are even less likely to further either and very likely to work against both as opportunity presents. Which is as it should be. These are cultural changes that require sustained effort over time. Cultures do not change by fiat.

    You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).


    I do agree with you as to government choices on same. Governments can never have the resources to address all concerns, so they MUST make calculated choices as to how much to spend on what and to counteract x, y. or z. That's unlikely to ever change. All we can do is help make those choices generate the greatest good for the cost expenditure made.
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    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Yeah, but life isn't going to be back to normal when that 2% fatality ends up taking away a grandparent or great uncle from every family.
    Expect people to be mad as fuck at anyone and everyone in government.
    That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I think Trump will use Pence as a scapegoat.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
    Certainly, quarantining an entire city and telling the entire country to stay home as much as possible for several days are actions by a really frightened government. Governments don't do this over a flu.
    Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 02-28-2020 at 19:42.
    Wooooo!!!

  16. #16

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    One website baldly states the government weigh up the health, social and economic facets. So they are currently accepting a few will die rather than loose economic GDP. So, yeah, Governments around the world so far are viewing the number of deaths acceptable compared to the potential economic downturn.
    Which website? It seems rather difficult to plan to contain disease deaths within an "acceptable" range, and I don't know what an acceptable range would be as far as allaying social unrest and economic losses goes. And this imputed autotomic motivation seems to contrast with all the governments around the world who have taken drastic quarantine measures to the loss of billions in economic activity already.

    The Soviet Union, by the way, ended WW2 with the same GDP it started with. Losing people is inherently draining of the economy.

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Our healthcare system offers free childhood vaccinations to all (though we do not force the anti-vaxers to be vaccinated and systemic pressures pushing them to vaccinate anyway are limited).
    Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House.

    Were some virus to reach crisis proportions this same system would be used to provide vaccines as needed and there likely would be legislation passed to fund it for all. Our love of the "rugged individualist" is not a suicide pact.
    https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/...ordable-trump/

    Let them eat cake.

    This is effectively what Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told Americans when asked about whether a treatment for the fast-moving coronavirus will be affordable.

    “We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can’t control that price because we need the private sector to invest,” he told a congressional committee on Wednesday in response to a question about affordability. “The priority is to get vaccines and therapeutics. Price controls won’t get us there.”


    Moreover, any person can present themselves to an emergency room and receive care, even if unable to pay (though the system is cumbersome and reactive instead of proactive -- which I acknowledge may be costing us as much if not more than funding across the board preventative medicine would save).
    And be billed thousands of dollars later, which discourages voluntary self-admission.

    The only continuing reason of the original three is the final stopgap against tyranny,
    The problem remains that this was not an explicit motivation shared by many at the time in connection to firearms, and that in practice those availing themselves of this theoretical motivation to ownership are the likeliest candidates to become brownshirt paramilitaries themselves.

    also note that it makes my country functionally unconquerable by an external power that does not command the high orbitals.
    We have oceans and breadth and nukes. No one has tried to conquer us in at least 200 years, and I see no reason why anyone would have the means or motivation to try. Vladimir Putin didn't need to fire a shot...

    I wonder how many would be prevented simply by the choice to violence requiring you to use both hands to lift a multiple pound object...
    I'm not opposed to (trying to) eliminate handguns, but as a conservative you can think of numerous workarounds to such an approach, and accompanying perverse incentives. A comprehensive approach would be the most successful, and that requires acknowledging the depth of gun culture in this country and its umbilical attachment to the whole ecosystem of far-right ideology. As with so many other areas robust reform would have to be generationally transformative to the limit of the final decisive confrontation with the forces of Reaction sksdjdksk

    But you're well aware that these things exist in all cultures and that the USA's culture is, by no means, the worst practitioner of either.
    Crucially, if liberal democracy (at the least) cannot persist in America then humanity at large is condemned. Our fate is enormously important to the rest of the world. Shining city and all that.

    You did not mention auto accidents (40k+ per year), or plain old accidents (120k+ per year), or overdoses (60-70k+ depending on year), or the metabolic syndrome stuff (800k+ per year) that underlies much of our healthcare risks on the national level (increase in sedentary, increase in calories, increase in simple carbs/fats as a ratio of diet).
    We do more to address these problems than we do gun violence and culture, but I'm sure we could do more. For example:

    Establish universal healthcare free at point of service, minimize sectoral influence over food and agriculture policy, and - most controversially - accelerate urbanization with social housing, massive public transit infrastructure, and curtailment of private automobile production and ownership/usage. (The latter is so controversial that even the AOC/Sanders Green New Deal incorporates mass private ownership of electric vehicles.)
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  17. #17
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    That 2% is inaccurate anyway as this only refers to cases that require hospitalisation. Which in a broader picture, only 1% of Flu cases require hospitalisation and 15% of Corvid-19 do. So this is 30x death rate of Flu. Italy currently looks like 5% morality rate. Which suggests it could be 45 times.
    That figure may be inflated, a lot of people are asymptomatic - making tracking the virus even harder - and therefore lethality overall may be closer to 1% or less.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcTpc0L3XNQ

    Of the 700 people on Diamond Princess who contracted Corvid-19 6 have died, that's a little under 1%.
    Last edited by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus; 02-29-2020 at 03:11.
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  18. #18
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    ...Having started on the fringes of liberal upper-middle class lifestyle woo, anti-vax has come dangerously close to being Republican mainstream, right up to the White House...
    Two years past I would have said you were being entirely silly. However, with any number of folk like George Will, Max Boot, and myself having (at least functionally) left the GOP as it has become more and more the party of Trump, it is plausible that the anti-vaxers are in the ascendancy there. Of course, many of those folks are the same ones who believe that the federal government is ALREADY a tyranny...
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  19. #19
    Hǫrðar Member Viking's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    The spreading of this thing is aggressive, no doubt.

    On Wednesday morning, there were no confirmed COVID-19 cases in this country (not for a lack of testing, as far as I understand), today there are no less than 15 confirmed cases, including two cases of probable domestic transmission.

    Prediction: confirmed cases in the US will skyrocket over the next two weeks; say, more than 100 confirmed cases by the end of next week (versus 15 today, not counting the Corona Princess)?
    Last edited by Viking; 02-29-2020 at 18:18.
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  20. #20
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 02-29-2020 at 19:04.
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    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    My roommate's dad who works with infectious diseases is insisting that we start stockpiling food in case we get hit real bad. Any suggestions on whats the best food to stockpile? Though I think instead of stockpiling food I should just head to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this to blow over.
    Calories
    Carbohydrates
    Protein
    Fibre
    Fats
    Multi-vits & minerals

    Have the first 5, have stuff you want to eat in enough variety to make it worthwhile, and have multi-vits guarantee what you may lack from the previous. Fresh stuff mixes things up, but in a pinch, you can keep going on the above in storable form. You just need fresh water and heat in addition.

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    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.

    The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 02-29-2020 at 20:55.
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  23. #23
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Rice, Pasta, tinned food, basic long lasting stuff. And toilet paper, lots of toilet paper.

    The impression I get is there's unlikely to be much in the way of outright mass starvation or societal collapse in the west but things might start getting short. I dont think heat and water will be an issue but at the very least the panic buying will see shelves stripped bare for a period of time.
    Right, rice, dried pasta, tinned tomato soup, tinned veg, tinned meat like Spam or Bully beef. Potatoes last a long time if kept in the cold and, as Greyblades says toilet paper. Also, bar soap - it lasts a lot longer than gel soups and you can use it for everything in a pinch (it's also more environmentally friendly and better for your skin).

    Realistically, we aren't going to actually run out of anything critical but prices might shoot up as supply is disrupted.

    In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51...eporting-story

    That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.

    Another source: https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus...s-mers-1489466

    It's not impossible that the real killer here will be impact on the supply chain that see people not getting medicines or other supplies, especially in Third World countries.
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  24. #24

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post

    In better news - looks like current best guess for mortality is, indeed, 1%: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51...eporting-story

    That's still pretty bad but it's way below apocalyptic fears and may well be revised downwards. We're looking at something more infectious but less deadly than SARS and MERS, 10% and 35% respectively.
    Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.
    Wooooo!!!

  25. #25
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    First off, in the USA, if there was a sure fire cure, many americans couldn't afford the treatment. As is the case with every other condition.
    Americans allow guns, massive wealth inequality, healthcare unaffordable for about 30% of the populace, racism and xenophobia. How many does this kill every year with barely anyone batting an eyelid?
    Look at other countries that have experienced proper disasters. People adapt to a new normal pretty quickly.
    Conservatives in the US generally inversely assert individual responsibility to the degree that the issue impacts their own life. I'm not trying to be flippant to you Rory, just pointing out the real American psychology which might not be apparent in British media coverage.

    'I thought gay marriage is bad until I knew someone who is gay.' Because if they are telling me they didn't choose to be gay, then my world view on their inherent sinfulness or 'activism' melts away and I am left with empathy.
    This is also how so the prevailing views on the subject flipped so fast in less than 10 years because the LGBT community simply made themselves known on a more individual level.

    'I thought the ACA was terrible until I had a pre-existing condition and was denied/child that was under 26 struggle to find a job/got medicare when my state expanded it'.

    'I thought paid child leave was for welfare queens until I had my first child.'
    http://www.cc.com/video-clips/08acdo...te-intolerance

    Pandemics and other natural disasters are on their face equal opportunity killers, there is no special reasoning or conjecture as to why some people die and others don't other than blind luck.
    This means that everyone feels the threat to its intensity and conservatives must either downplay the danger or they too will become enraged that not enough is being done. But keep in mind, this anger over government ineptitude is not some general awareness of public safety measures, they simply want government to protect the right people.
    Last edited by a completely inoffensive name; 02-29-2020 at 23:23.
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    https://www.miamiherald.com/news/hea...240476806.html

    After returning to Miami last month from a work trip in China, Osmel Martinez Azcue found himself in a frightening position: he was developing flu-like symptoms, just as coronavirus was ravaging the country he had visited.

    Under normal circumstances, Azcue said he would have gone to CVS for over-the-counter medicine and fought the flu on his own, but this time was different. As health officials stressed preparedness and vigilance for the respiratory illness, Azcue felt it was his responsibility to his family and his community to get tested for novel coronavirus, known as COVID-19.

    He went to Jackson Memorial Hospital, where he said he was placed in a closed-off room. Nurses in protective white suits sprayed some kind of disinfectant smoke under the door before entering, Azcue said. Then hospital staff members told him he’d need a CT scan to screen for coronavirus, but Azcue said he asked for a flu test first.

    “This will be out of my pocket,” Azcue, who has a very limited insurance plan, recalled saying. “Let’s start with the blood test, and if I test positive, just discharge me.”

    Fortunately, that’s exactly what happened. He had the flu, not the deadly virus that has infected tens of thousands of people, mostly in China, and killed at least 2,239 as of Friday’s update by the World Health Organization.

    But two weeks later, Azcue got unwelcome news in the form of a notice from his insurance company about a claim for $3,270.

    In 2018, President Donald Trump’s administration rolled back Affordable Care Act regulations and allowed so-called “junk plans” in the market. Consumers mistakenly assume that the plans with lower monthly costs will be better than no insurance at all in case of a medical catastrophe, but often the plans aren’t very different from going without insurance altogether.

    Hospital officials at Jackson told the Miami Herald that, based on his insurance, Azcue would only be responsible for $1,400 of that bill, but Azcue said he heard from his insurer that he would also have to provide additional documentation: three years of medical records to prove that the flu he got didn’t relate to a preexisting condition.



    These people are very stupid.
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233423437286211585

    Although to be fair, state media in other authoritarian regimes aren't much better.
    https://twitter.com/rafsanchez/statu...76847255224320

    Holy crud, watch those two clips. Now for a humor break:

    Trump understands, old men are the future.
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    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  27. #27
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaka_Khan View Post
    Unfortunately, countries that are experiencing high numbers are also experiencing a shortage of available rooms/beds in the hospitals. Many of the infected are being self-quarantined in their homes. Also, this virus could damage the lungs, which would be unfixable. And there are some people who are experiencing repeated symptoms.
    Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.

    I'm very dubious on this recurrence and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  28. #28

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    Less than one in five requires medical intervention, and not all of those require hospitalisation. All the evidence points to this being the equivalent of a really nasty strain of flu, not SRS.
    You're ignoring the numbers in Wuhan. The hospitals were overwhelmed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    I'm very dubious on this recurrence
    We'll have to wait and see if it's true or not. But it's not safe to assume something is wrong without proof. And you shouldn't choose which the official reports are true or false just to illustrate to your liking.

    Quote Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus View Post
    and especially "unfixable" damage to the lungs given that the lungs are extremely good at regenerating.
    That depends on how damaged the lungs are. I heard that it's hard for the internal organs to recover from a severe damage.
    Last edited by Shaka_Khan; 03-02-2020 at 23:47.
    Wooooo!!!

  29. #29
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

    http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#
    High Plains Drifter

  30. #30
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    All the buzz surrounding this COVID-19 outbreak just serves to illustrate that when big bucks are involved, massive headlines follow. Yet, a disease far more deadly rages on with little media attention:

    http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/imm...against-ebola#
    And Malaria, TV, cholera... and so on and so on. They kill poor people abroad. The risks of these things getting to the West are pretty low and most are difficult to spread or are at least treatable.

    Just like we don't really care about poor people in general. Respiratory infections that can affect the rich,, affect the old more than others are little treatment works beyond supportive measures is scary.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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