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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

  1. #1171
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Sadly the common response to the above is "I don't trust those numbers" which allows for zero debate, just emotional gut responses.
    The very reason I stopped discussing the pandemic with just about everyone. I've gotten both of my vaccine doses, and I will continue to wear a mask indoors in stores, etc. I'm waiting for the first person to accost me for wearing one....

    Here stateside, most people aren't paying attention to the new variants, especially the Delta (India) variant, which is causing increases in cases for even those countries with a decent (50%+) level of vaccination, and will certainly become the dominant variant worldwide. And yet, Western countries are still bowing to Big Pharma by not releasing, even temporarily, vaccine patents. If there's a COVID firestorm somewhere, there will eventually be one everywhere.

    Humans, at least the greedy types, never learn....
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  2. #1172
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Releasing vaccine patents isn't the same as releasing oil from reserves or food.

    Short term, would people trust a vaccine made by a lab that just got into the game when the patents became free to use? Do they have the appropriate ability to manufacture safely - even inspecting all sites would take time (assuming that they even exist). There might well be labs that think they can but might well be after a quick buck; AZ is doing it at cost in the pandemic and they're struggling to up production due to getting the lab on line. Might all suppliers bother to get it right? Personally I'd rather wait longer for a one from a primary supplier - rather like how many Chinese would rather buy baby powder from New Zealand than from a local supplier since they want quality.

    Although freeing up patents has its own drawbacks, if they were to do so, they could do what is done in technology where key patents have to be licenced at fair market value to others - ditto ARM, Intel, AMD, NVIDIA and so on and so forth. As why should Pfizer just be forced to give up one of their products? I imagine that technology Tesla has would help other companies and the world but no one is asking them to do so.

    Longer term, next time there's a pandemic that requires companies to quickly save our collective refusal to act like adults, companies might not be as quick to do so if they get their patents pinched and their reputations trashed.

    Last edited by rory_20_uk; 06-26-2021 at 20:50.
    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  3. #1173
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Releasing vaccine patents isn't the same as releasing oil from reserves or food.
    But it would allow the number of labs producing said vaccine to increase dramatically, thereby easing the worldwide pandemic load. Obviously, that's not instantaneous, but by the end of this year or early next year, even the poorest of the poor will have something...

    Yup...there will be the opportunists looking to make a buck, but along with the temporary release of patents, comes oversight.

    Personally I'd rather wait longer for a one from a primary supplier
    I think that people from any of the third world countries where COVID19 is still running amok, might have a different take...

    As why should Pfizer just be forced to give up one of their products?
    Much of the money that went into COVID-19 vaccines was government money (ie. taxpayers money), and therefore governments should have at least some say in the matter:

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10....2.191448/full/

    In the case of vaccines in general, the government often plays an outsized role, but in the era of COVID-19 the government’s role was even more central than usual. The government essentially removed the bulk of traditional industry risks related to vaccine development: a) scientific failures, b) failures to demonstrate safety and efficacy, c) manufacturing risks; and d) market risks related to low demand.

    Since 2000, taxpayer dollars have financed the development of various vaccine platforms for HIV, pandemic flu, and other threats to public health. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the government leveraged investments in those platforms in three ways. First, it supported additional preclinical studies. Second, it absorbed the bulk of human testing costs and risk through a set of contracts that paid for the various phases of vaccine development and manufacturing. And third, it reduced manufacturing risk by underwriting capacity investments.

    The government also largely eliminated market risks through advance purchase commitments. These contracts involved negotiation over price and quantity that ended in mutually agreeable contract terms between the government and industry.
    The article goes on to cite individual money amounts granted to Big Pharma. Suffice to say it was billions...

    You ain't going to see me crying tears over Big Pharma. They made billions:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/13/busin...ine/index.html
    High Plains Drifter

  4. #1174
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    But it would allow the number of labs producing said vaccine to increase dramatically, thereby easing the worldwide pandemic load. Obviously, that's not instantaneous, but by the end of this year or early next year, even the poorest of the poor will have something...

    Yup...there will be the opportunists looking to make a buck, but along with the temporary release of patents, comes oversight.



    I think that people from any of the third world countries where COVID19 is still running amok, might have a different take...



    Much of the money that went into COVID-19 vaccines was government money (ie. taxpayers money), and therefore governments should have at least some say in the matter:

    https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10....2.191448/full/



    The article goes on to cite individual money amounts granted to Big Pharma. Suffice to say it was billions...

    You ain't going to see me crying tears over Big Pharma. They made billions:

    https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/13/busin...ine/index.html
    Temporary release. Just during the time they're needed. Great! Oversight... by who exactly?

    Brazil refused 70,000,000 Pfizer jobs they were offered... For free. Coz the Leader there doesn't think it is a big deal. Or something. I've no idea why.

    People in third world countries are very used to getting dodgy medicines that don't work or kill. I am not sure so many would be delighted to get something that might kill better than COVID.

    There were grants given to Big Pharma. Pharma did overall make billions... But they are separate companies. Those that got the money aee not those that brought out the vaccines (certainly not the first ones - Pfizer didn't get a grant and AZ is producing someone else's so it didn't apply either). That governments pissed vast sums of money and it didn't achieve much is not unusual. Paying for product is more cost effective.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
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  5. #1175
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Oversight... by who exactly?
    The WHO, or an independent board.

    Coz the Leader there doesn't think it is a big deal.
    Bolsonaro isn't exactly the most popular figure in Brazil, at the moment. And you are making the assumption that all vaccines produced in places other than developed Western countries won't work or will kill.

    That governments pissed vast sums of money and it didn't achieve much is not unusual.
    Often quite true, but not in the case of vaccines. The groundwork laid by government expenditures in the last decade played a major role in delivering a COVID vaccine in record time.

    But they are separate companies. Those that got the money aee not those that brought out the vaccines
    Read the quote from the first link, above. There were other ways besides direct cash rollouts that governments aided in bringing COVID vaccines into existence so quickly....and it's not like it was the workers & researchers that got money---most of the profit has gone to CEO's and shareholders.

    Paying for product is more cost effective.
    Rich countries buying product and distributing to poorer countries is needed for the short-term. Waiving patent protections is a longer term strategy. Both are needed if we don't want to see one new variant after another continuing to emerge. Whatever course is taken, it'd better be sooner than later, or we get an Omega variant that screws us all...
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-27-2021 at 20:52.
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  6. #1176

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Rory is right that patent restrictions are not what is preventing poor countries from launching domestic production in the short term (and at this point cumulative vaccine production is definitely not a bottleneck to universal inoculation), but he is wrong that the existing patent system is a spur to innovation or competition.

    For now let's just say that the most effective approach is for the rich world to procure and distribute a couple billion doses. And then we can discuss directing investment into domestic biotech infrastructure for the likes of India, and a copyleft system for innovation in medicine. Unfortunately the global patent/copyright system is one of the international order's most entrenched features, having been promulgated by the US for generations and secured by international covenants to which almost all countries are party.
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  7. #1177
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Medicine copyright ends after roughly 20 years. Something we do not see in any other walk of life. So compared to most this is extremely open, with (outside if the insane healthcare system in the USA) generics taking over 95% of the market and even in biologicals having a price reduction of 70%. Yes, that means the rich get healthcare earlier but this is better than most others.

    Governments could try to set up their own companies. Who knows, this time it might not be a disaster. I would have thought seed investing in small biotechs out of Universities would be best - perhaps even having grants linked to equity in future spinoffs.

    India should focus on cleaning its rivers rather for starters - the basics rather than a space programme. Less sexy but saves many more lives.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  8. #1178

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Medicine copyright ends after roughly 20 years. Something we do not see in any other walk of life. So compared to most this is extremely open, with (outside if the insane healthcare system in the USA) generics taking over 95% of the market and even in biologicals having a price reduction of 70%. Yes, that means the rich get healthcare earlier but this is better than most others.
    I defer to Dean Baker, the international patent economist, on this one. Not a long article. On global relevance:

    Of course people have realized at this point that the reason Sovaldi has a high price in the United States is that Gilead Sciences has a patent monopoly on the drug. This monopoly gives it the exclusive right to sell the drug in the United States. The U.S. government will arrest anyone who tries to sell Sovaldi in competition with Gilead Sciences.2 The United States is unique in that we both grant pharmaceutical companies a patent monopoly on their drugs, and then let them sell the drugs for whatever price they want. Other wealthy countries also grant patent monopolies, which are required by a number of international agreements, but they have some form of price control which limits what companies can charge. For this reason, drug prices in other wealthy countries are typically around half of the price in the United States.

    My comments will refer largely to the United States. This is first and foremost because it is the market with which I am most familiar. However the same problems appear in other countries, even if they may not be as extreme as in the United States. Furthermore, it is the explicit goal of the United States government to use trade agreements like the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Pact to raise the price of drugs in other countries to U.S. levels. So the United States may well represent the future for the prescription drug market in Sweden and the rest of Europe.
    Governments could try to set up their own companies. Who knows, this time it might not be a disaster. I would have thought seed investing in small biotechs out of Universities would be best - perhaps even having grants linked to equity in future spinoffs.

    India should focus on cleaning its rivers rather for starters - the basics rather than a space programme. Less sexy but saves many more lives.
    To be clear, India is a major world pharmaceuticals exporter and has manufactured and distributed hundreds of millions of doses of Covid vaccines - including those of local design - by now. It's not bereft of capacity. What is always valuable however is the ability to build capacity domestically without relying on technology transfers and licensing from foreign companies, which as I understand it is a problem with respect to RNA vaccines in India. So poorer countries presumably don't have much baseline.

    A good term I've seen used, and applicable to much beyond vaccines and pharmaceuticals, is "industrial coaching" or "technical coaching."

    Relatedly, there's the cool story of Cuba achieving Covid vaccine self-reliance in "Abdala" and "Soberana 2." or at least, it has successfully developed national vaccines independently (the government apparently doesn't intend to import any vaccines).
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  9. #1179
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I defer to Dean Baker, the international patent economist, on this one. Not a long article. On global relevance:





    To be clear, India is a major world pharmaceuticals exporter and has manufactured and distributed hundreds of millions of doses of Covid vaccines - including those of local design - by now. It's not bereft of capacity. What is always valuable however is the ability to build capacity domestically without relying on technology transfers and licensing from foreign companies, which as I understand it is a problem with respect to RNA vaccines in India. So poorer countries presumably don't have much baseline.

    A good term I've seen used, and applicable to much beyond vaccines and pharmaceuticals, is "industrial coaching" or "technical coaching."

    Relatedly, there's the cool story of Cuba achieving Covid vaccine self-reliance in "Abdala" and "Soberana 2." or at least, it has successfully developed national vaccines independently (the government apparently doesn't intend to import any vaccines).
    As the article says throughout this mainly applies to the USA. Most other countries have cost controls and vastly less inefficient systems where doctors are not bribed to prescribe by brand.
    Selling off licence is illegal. The USA tends to hae such small punishments companies still do it - look at the opiate crisis.
    If the FDA wants more data it should ask for more. Currently the data package includes all trials and pre clinical work. I am not sure other areas one requires submitting technical data to reverse engineer a submitted patent.
    The current system is far from perfect. If governments don't like it then why haven't they started their own companies to discover new, better or at least cheaper molecules?
    I personally think it is because all counties - aside from the USA are content to wait for the patents to expire and get the products as generics.

    I am sure many companies would be delighted to get a technology transfer as well as companies. Why isn't ti's true of lithium battery development, solar panels, and so on and so on?

    The EU has already made moves to ban people who have had an Indian made jab. Is this based on science or Xenophobia?

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  10. #1180

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Wooooo!!!

  11. #1181
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post

    The EU has already made moves to ban people who have had an Indian made jab. Is this based on science or Xenophobia?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ia-astrazeneca

    In other words, if vaccines are safe and effective enough to be distributed by the EU, they are safe and effective enough to be accepted by the EU.

    The optics are terrible. The episode touches all types of nerves, as it has in Britain – where it will no doubt do little to shift the post-Brexit stereotype of a spiteful EU. For non-western countries, the most inflammatory implication is that even though the two AstraZeneca vaccines are exactly the same, the one produced in India must be inferior: an idea that even taints some of the stock distributed in the UK...

    But beyond the headlines lies not overt prejudice, but bureaucratic procedures that result in de facto discrimination. According to the EMA, Covishield was not included in the vaccine passport scheme because its manufacturer, the Serum Institute of India, had not applied for marketing authorisation; yet this would be an odd thing to do as the vaccine is not manufactured for marketing and use in Europe (the institute has since applied for authorisation). The EMA said that Covishield licensing under AstraZeneca was not enough because manufacturing conditions differed from facility to facility, therefore all licensees had to apply separately.

    For now, the outrage expressed by non-European countries seems to have partly worked. At the end of last week seven European countries individually approved Covishield. But the fact that this predictable anger was unforeseen is revealing of a complacent bureaucracy oblivious to the needs and perceptions of most of the world.
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  12. #1182
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I'm reassured to see that however much the world changes, the EU continues to hold up procedural inflexibility as a core virtue, as without the rule of law what are we?
    Oh, apart from when they decide to do so in which case best to ignore it.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  13. #1183
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    The data now coming out of Israel about the Delta variant is fairly encouraging:

    The Health Ministry says that in the past month, the Pfizer vaccine’s effectiveness in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 has dropped by some 30% to 64%.

    It notes the drop in effectiveness has come amid the spread of the Delta variant.

    The ministry adds that the vaccine’s effectiveness at preventing serious illness is at 93%.
    As the Delta variant hasnt fully hit the US yet the numbers seem to be on the lower end still, which is good. In my city, daily covid cases have been in the low double-digits for a while now. And I think there hasnt been a death in like two weeks or so. But as I said, the Delta variant hasnt fully hit yet so we will see what happens. I wonder if when it does take over if the GOP will finally take it more seriously since 99% of those dying are those unvaccinated.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 07-05-2021 at 17:49.
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  14. #1184

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Props to the UK for maintaining reasonable levels of testing over the past 4 calm months,whereas US testing rates have been collapsing continuously since Biden's inauguration.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    As the article says throughout this mainly applies to the USA. Most other countries have cost controls and vastly less inefficient systems where doctors are not bribed to prescribe by brand.
    Wouldn't Baker's point about patent incentives leading to secrecy and duplication of effort in the research process apply anywhere in the world?

    The current system is far from perfect. If governments don't like it then why haven't they started their own companies to discover new, better or at least cheaper molecules?
    I did just mention Cuba... but maybe that's unfair as they're a socialist country that famously chose to specialize in healthcare and biomed 50 years ago.

    I recall in recent years Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jeremy Corbyn have all proposed expansion of publicly-funded research or establishment of state pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity of last resort.

    While searching on Corbyn's platform I found the following article among the first results; it is fascinating to the point where I reprint it in whole.

    Since cystic fibrosis was identified as a disease in 1938, doctors have worked to alleviate its symptoms, which include debilitating, persistent lung infections. But a cure for the disease, which is caused by a genetic mutation, remained out of reach.

    Then, in the early years of this decade, hope began to emerge in the form of ivacaftor, a new “precision” drug that helped improve the chemistry within the sufferer’s cells. It was not a total cure, but patients spoke of being able to breathe normally for the first time.

    This hope, however, came at a price. After ivacaftor was approved for use in the US, it was sold – under the trade name Kalydeco – for more than $300,000 per year, for the rest of the patient’s life.

    The NHS is currently negotiating with Vertex, the American pharmaceutical company that developed ivacaftor, to bring another drug based on it to patients in the UK. It has been negotiating for three years. Vertex says that, to recoup the costs of developing this drug, which is called Orkambi, it must charge £105,000 a year per patient. The NHS says it can’t afford to pay. Meanwhile, desperate parents are paying to import the drug from Argentina for their children. MPs on the Health and Social Care Committee have received more than 300 requests to intervene.

    Perhaps the most popular policy announced by Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference at the end of last month was the intention to use “compulsory licensing” – making or importing the drug without the patent-holder’s consent – to bring drugs such as Orkambi to NHS patients in an affordable way. A state-run manufacturer would be set up to produce such drugs where necessary. A poll, conducted by ComRes on behalf of the PR firm MHP, gave the policy an 86 per cent approval rating.

    Not everyone was on board, however. The Sun decried “Soviet-style rules on drug firms”. The Telegraph agreed that this “drastic regulation... would stifle research and development leading to fewer options for patients”.

    And while Labour delegates, as a group, can be relied upon to be suspicious of Big Pharma, this is an industry that employs nearly 70,000 people in this country in well-paid, sustainable, satisfying work. In 2015, the pharma industry paid £8.6bn in taxes. The sector supports a wider “life sciences” industry that contributes an estimated £30bn a year to the economy. This is not something the British economy can afford to lose, especially now.

    As the industry tells it, the biggest challenge to Labour’s policy is that, without intellectual property, companies have no incentive to do medical research. While the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI) conceded that “the situation on Orkambi is rare, but it is clearly unacceptable”, it also argued that “the seizure of new research... would completely undermine the system for developing new medicines”.

    But Professor Karl Claxton, a health economist at the University of York and a founding member of the Technology Appraisal Committee at the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, thinks such a policy would actually benefit research in the long run. Without such regulation, he explains, pharmaceutical companies are given perverse incentives “to invest a lot of money in very high-cost developments, with marginal and very uncertain benefits”. A clear symptom of this, he says, is the huge sum invested in parallel research by different companies on the same drugs and diseases. [cf. Baker]

    Pharmaceutical companies, he argues, need “a clear signal of how much the health system can afford to pay for the benefits of any development they might invest in”. Without this information they can waste billions developing the same drugs as their competitors. Meanwhile, “healthcare systems around the world are then confronted with incredibly high-cost medicines”, and are forced to choose between marginal benefits for a few patients, or reduced outcomes overall.

    Claxton was involved in the creation of a similar policy in Canada, now passed into law, in which the national government tells pharmaceutical companies what it can afford to pay for the benefits of their products, in order to inform investment and research. In rare instances, “when an originator manufacturer refuses to sell, but we know that they could sell at the rebated price and still make a profit”, the government would decide to view the situation as “non-use of patent”. In many countries, the failure to use a patent, trademark or other intellectual property can be used as a means to revoke it.

    But for any government to have “a credible threat” in this situation, Claxton says it would need “a generics manufacturer that will be willing to take up that compulsory license”. And to be able to make that happen, the company would probably need to be publicly owned or managed.

    Melissa Barber, a doctoral student at Harvard University who researches public health policy, points out that a government could also use compulsory licensing to import a medication. This, too, would have its benefits, in that it is “easier and more probable”, but also because at the moment, “a lot of drugs are only manufactured by one or two firms – if you have an earthquake where that factory is, you’ve got an issue”.

    Barber also points out that compulsory licenses aren’t only used for medicines. “More compulsory licenses have been issued in the United States, probably, than anywhere else,” she points out, and examples include “medical devices, industrial technologies, and military technologies”. These licenses have included software, petroleum technologies and tow-truck parts.

    Dzintars Gotham, a researcher and consultant to the World Health Organisation, adds that the US and Canada have already used the threat of compulsory licensing, when it was necessary to force a manufacturer to alter the price of an antibiotic that treats anthrax.

    Gotham, too, sees the Labour policy as relatively uncontroversial. While compulsory licensing of new drugs is uncommon in wealthier countries, he says, “it’s completely in line with what the United Nations has been recommending for the last 20 years. It’s comfortably enshrined in international law that governments can do that.”

    UK law even has an extra provision, called “crown use”, in which the government may authorise anyone to make, import or use a product without the consent of the patent-holder, “for the services of the Crown”. The Crown in this sense means the state, not the monarch.


    But while such abilities are legally established, Gotham says the idea that the government would suddenly begin manufacturing its own drugs across the board is “fearmongering”, and “unprecedented in any country in the world”. The more likely situation, he says, would be that “if NICE negotiates reasonably and in good faith with an originator for an entire year, and cannot agree on a price, NICE faces two options – either they give up, the UK doesn’t have access to the drug and patients suffer, or they say, well, at this juncture we’re going to use a crown use license.”

    Karl Claxton says he wouldn’t necessarily expect the government to use this stick at all. His hope is that the “compulsory license option will be used never, or once”.

    And it is not only patented medicines that are expensive. Where generics – medicines that have fallen out of patent– are made by one company, they, too, can be subject to huge price hikes. The cost of quetiapine, which is used to treat serious mental illnesses, rose by more than £110 per pill – an increase of over 7,000 per cent – from 2017-18, while at least 32 other drugs have had more than tenfold increases in price this decade. These are drugs that are more than 20 years old, on which the only cost is manufacturing. “I think there's a really good case to say that we can't rely on market competition to get us the generics that we need,” observes Claxton.

    Advocates of the policy also point out that the government has in many cases already paid for research. For example, the medicine on which the NHS has spent the most money overall is adalimumab, sold under the brand name Humira. Until its patent expired in October last year, Humira was used by around 46,000 patients in the UK at a total cost of over £400m a year (a lower-cost generic version is now used). For scale, the budget of the Manchester Royal Infirmary – the largest hospital in the country’s busiest hospital trust – has a budget of £380m.

    But the technology behind adalimumab was developed in a laboratory owned by the British government’s Medical Research Council. That technology – monoclonal antibodies – is now behind six of the ten most profitable drugs in the world, supporting a market for drugs companies that is worth £90bn a year. The government pays once to develop medicines and again to use them – and they cost a lot more once they’ve been shown to work.

    While both sides can argue the economics and the fairness of such policies, there are some policymakers – and not only on the left – for whom they are becoming inevitable. Ongoing medical crises have forced some governments to disregard patents, most notably South Africa, where the government has spent a decade fighting the pharmaceutical industry for access to cheaper generic versions of the retroviral drugs needed to treat HIV, which affects almost 20 per cent of the country’s adult population.

    This is not a situation that policymakers should assume will be confined to the global south. Jim O’Neill, the former Conservative Treasury minister and chair of the government’s review of anti-microbial resistance, said in March that state-run “utilities” might be the only solution to the growing crisis. O’Neill’s 2014 review warned that antimicrobial resistance, if not addressed, could lead to ten million deaths a year by 2050 and cost $100trn. Crises of such magnitude are not solved by the market alone.
    Also, Baker's suggestions to achieve similar results with public monies and regulation but not necessarily with public industry:

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    The basic logic of a system of publicly financed medical research would be that the government expand its current funding for biomedical research, which now goes primarily through NIH, by an amount that is roughly equal to the patent supported research currently being conducted by the pharmaceutical industry. Pharma, the industry trade group, puts this funding level at roughly $50 billion or 0.3 percent of GDP, a figure that is also consistent with data from the National Science Foundation. That would be a reasonable target, with the idea that the public funding would eventually replace the patent-supported funding.17 Adding in research on medical equipment and tests would increase this figure by $12–15 billion.17

    In order to minimize the risk of political interference and also the risk that excessive bureaucracy could impede innovation, it would be desirable that the bulk of this funding would be committed to private firms under long-term contracts (e.g. 10–15 years).19 This would allow for the imposition of clear rules that apply to all research directly or indirectly funded by the public sector, without a need for micro-management. The contracts would be subject to regular oversight for their duration, but the contractors would be free to set priorities for which lines of research to support. The contractors could also freely subcontract, just as the major pharmaceutical companies do now. They could also use their funds to buy research produced by other companies, just as the pharmaceutical industry does at present. As the period for a contract approached its end, the contractor could attempt to gain a new long-term contract. It would argue its case based on its track record with the prior contract.

    The basic rules governing these contracts would be that all the results stemming from publicly financed research would be placed in the public domain, subject to copyleft-type restrictions.20 This means that any patents for drugs, research tools, or other intermediate steps developed by contractors or subcontractors, would be freely available for anyone to use, subject to the condition that they also would place any subsequent patents in the public domain. Similarly, test results used to get approval for a drug from Food and Drug Administration would be available for any generic producer to use to gain acceptance for their own product.

    In addition to requiring that patents be placed in the public domain, there would also be a requirement that all research findings be made available to the public as quickly as practical. This means, for example, that results from pre-clinical testing be made available as soon as they are known, so that other researchers could benefit from the findings. This should prevent unnecessary duplication and allow for more rapid progress in research. These restrictions would apply to both direct contractors and any sub-contractors that were hired.21

    This disclosure requirement would not be a negative for participants in the context of this sort of open-source contract system. Because the goal is to generate useful innovations rather than procure a patent, a contractor would be able to make an effective case for the usefulness of their work even if competitors were the ones that ultimately used it to develop a useful drug or medical device. The incentive in this system is to disseminate any interesting findings as widely as possible in the hope that other researchers will be able to build upon them.

    The contracting system in the Defense Department can be seen as a loose model for contracting in pharmaceutical research. When the Defense Department is planning a major project, such as a new fighter plane or submarine, it will typically sign a contract with a major corporation like General Electric or Lockheed. The contractor will generally subcontract much of the project, because it is not prepared to do all the work in-house. The same would be the case with a contractor doing research developing pharmaceuticals or medical equipment, although the expected results will be somewhat less clearly specified. While that is a disadvantage of contracting with medical research, because the outcomes will be less well-defined, a major advantage is that there would be no excuse for secrecy in the medical research process. There is a clear justification for secrecy in military research, because it wouldn’t make sense to allow potential enemies to have access to the latest military technology. By contrast, biomedical research will be advanced more quickly by allowing the greatest possible access.

    Secrecy has often been an important factor allowing military contractors to conceal waste or fraud, because only a very select group of people have access to the specific terms of a contract and the nature of the work a company is doing. In the case of bio-medical research, there is no reason that the terms of the contract would not be fully public. And, all research findings would have to be posted in a timely manner. With such rules, it should be possible to quickly identify any contractor whose output clearly did not correspond to the money they were receiving from the government. For all the instances of waste and fraud in military contracting, it nonetheless has been effective in giving the U.S. the most technologically advanced military in the world.

    Because the system of patent protection and rules on data exclusivity is now enshrined in a large number of international agreements that would be difficult to circumvent, it is important that an alternative system work around this structure. As proposed here, patent protection under current rules would still be available to drug companies conducting research with their own funds. However, they would run the risk that at the point where they have an FDA-approved drug, there is a new drug available at generic prices that is comparably effective. This sort of competition would likely force the company to sell its drug at a price comparable to the generic, leaving it little margin for recouping its research costs.

    Simply the risk of this sort of generic competition should make the current system of patent-financed drug development unprofitable, especially if the industry’s claims about its research costs are anywhere close to being accurate. In this way, the existing rules on patents can be left in place, even as a new system of publicly financed research comes to dominate the process of drug development.
    Switching all at once to a system of fully funded research would likely be a difficult step both politically and practically. This would involve a radical transformation of a massive industry of a sort that is rarely seen in the U.S. or anywhere else. Fortunately, there is an intermediate step that can be used to advance toward a system of fully funded research which would offer enormous benefits in its own right.

    There is a simple and basic divide in the research process between the pre-clinical phase of drug development and the clinical phase. The pre-clinical phase involves the development of new drugs or new uses of existing drugs and preliminary tests on lab animals. The clinical phase involves testing on humans and eventually proceeding to the FDA approval process if the earlier phases of testing are successful. The clinical testing phase accounts for more than 60 percent of spending on research, although this number is reduced if a return is imputed on the pre-clinical testing phase, because there is a considerably longer lag between pre-clinical expenditures and an approved drug than with clinical tests.

    The clinical testing process involves a standard set of procedures, and is therefore far more routinized than the pre-clinical portion of drug development. For this reason, the clinical testing portion of the drug development process could be more easily adapted to a program of direct public funding. The model could be the same as discussed earlier, with the government contracting on a long-term basis with existing or new drug companies. However, the contracts would specify the testing of drugs in particular areas. As was the case described earlier, all results would be fully public, and all patent and related rights associated with the testing process would be put in the public domain subject to copyleft-type rules. This would likely mean that in many cases the contracting companies would have to buy up rights to a compound(s) before they initiated testing, because another company held a patent on it.

    There are many advantages to separating out the clinical testing portion of drug development rather than attempting to fully replace patent supported research all at once. First, it would be much easier to slice off particular areas to experiment with public funding. For example, it should be possible to set aside a certain amount of funding for clinical trials for new cancer or heart drugs without worrying about fully replacing private support for research in these areas. Also, it should be possible to obtain dividends much more quickly in the form of new drugs being available at generic prices. The time lag between the beginning of preclinical research and an approved drug can be as long as 20 years. The clinical testing process typically takes less than eight years and can be considerably shorter if a drug’s benefits become quickly evident in trials.

    Another important early dividend from the public funding of clinical trials is that the results of these trials would be posted as soon as they are available. This means that researchers and doctors would not only have access to the summary statistics showing the success rates in the treatment group relative to the control group, but they would also have access to the data on specific individuals in the trial.27 This would allow them to independently analyze the data to determine if there were differences in outcomes based on age, gender, or other factors. It would also allow for researchers to determine the extent to which interactions with other drugs affected the effectiveness of a new drug.

    In addition, the public disclosure of test results may put pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to change its practices. The problem of misreporting or concealing results in order to promote a drug is one that arises in the process of clinical testing. While misrepresented results can be a problem at any stage in the drug development process, misrepresentations at the pre-clinical phase are unlikely to have health consequences because they will be uncovered in clinical testing. The problem of patients being prescribed drugs that are less effective than claimed or possible harmful to certain patients due to misrepresentations is entirely an issue with clinical testing. If experiments with a limited number of publicly funded clinical trials can change the norms on disclosure of test results, they will have made an enormous contribution to public health.


    I am sure many companies would be delighted to get a technology transfer as well as companies. Why isn't ti's true of lithium battery development, solar panels, and so on and so on?
    That's even more important! Developing new energy generation and storage technology and essentially gifting it to India, Africa, and Latin America (while also heavily investing in its infrastructuration there, so that it doesn't remain on paper) is the prerequisite to global climate adaptation.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 07-07-2021 at 04:57.
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  15. #1185
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Wouldn't Baker's point about patent incentives leading to secrecy and duplication of effort in the research process apply anywhere in the world?

    I did just mention Cuba... but maybe that's unfair as they're a socialist country that famously chose to specialize in healthcare and biomed 50 years ago.

    I recall in recent years Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Jeremy Corbyn have all proposed expansion of publicly-funded research or establishment of state pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity of last resort.

    Also, Baker's suggestions to achieve similar results with public monies and regulation but not necessarily with public industry:

    That's even more important! Developing new energy generation and storage technology and essentially gifting it to India, Africa, and Latin America (while also heavily investing in its infrastructuration there, so that it doesn't remain on paper) is the prerequisite to global climate adaptation.
    Patents do encourage secrecy and duplication in every industry. Ideally they would not exist, but that is a very radical change. Perhaps more should be forced to licence patents to competitors - or even have them end as is the case with Pharma. This I think also should apply to Copyright of materials. Why this is the case on (for example) 5G networks but not everywhere I do not know.

    If companies have to publish everything, why on earth put in the money to create something when you can just pick and choose from the work of others. China has massively benefitted from intellectual property theft and appropriation over the years; yes, there are some cases of open source working well such as Linux / RISC V chips but the key factor appears to be that people can make iterative improvements whereas certainly Clinical Trials are pretty much have massive up front cost and are extremely controlled. Already we have the issue with no one bothering to find new uses for old molecules since where's the payback? To get companies to invest in Orphan conditions theyve even tweaked the rules to give more exclusivity

    Countries do seem to be happy to subsidise companies for little if any gain - I think that much of this money should be given as a share purchase so the rewards are shared as they would be with any other investor (and I am sure there are much more complex ways of this to be undertaken - but not just "here's free money - we look forward to receiving any taxes you don't manage to evade"). That this isn't done makes me wonder if they have found it easier to bribe key figures.

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  16. #1186
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    That this isn't done makes me wonder if they have found it easier to bribe key figures.
    Exactly what's done here in the US: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/05/s...-war-red-scare You don't think he's bought and paid for.....?
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 07-07-2021 at 12:51.
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  17. #1187

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    If companies have to publish everything, why on earth put in the money to create something when you can just pick and choose from the work of others.
    As Baker and others point out, patents do encourage companies to seek rent by emphasizing alternate monetizations of existing IPs and products. In the scenario where long-term government contracts replace patent-driven research funding (remember, this is an alternative to outright nationalization of R&D or overturning of the international IP regime), the companies have a guaranteed revenue stream to pursue innovations as long as they maintain the terms, rather than just gambling on the potential to lock in future licensing or purchasing contracts at an inflated price. I suppose the idea is a two-track system where public-supported research with openness requirements that other companies can later reap the fruits of (so long as they follow the same requirements themselves) will gradually "crowd out" riskier patent-driven research. It sounds similar to the theory of public insurance options at any rate, where individuals and firms are expected to over time prefer to offload onto a cheap and reliable insurance policy rather than haggle with opaque and fragmented markets. As opposed to quickly banning or overriding private insurance by fiat...
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  18. #1188
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    And that would be fine - governments merely need to undertake the R&D to get those assets to licence to others. There are a few that are already licenced from governments - Dysport for example was created from the UK R&D for biological weaponry and is licenced to Ipsen; the patent for Insulin is held by the University of Toronto and if the ideals were for the companies with the licence to produce cheap insulin that clearly hasn't happened.

    This concepts of governments licencing IP for the good of all could cover all industries - I am sure that NASA has more than a few patents. And I wouldn't mind betting they give better deals to American companies than those abroad. If this were to work it would have to be truly open to all... Which again would be a seismic change from the current system of entrenched interests.

    For a "Democracy" like the USA to exclude those who make vast sums from the system to passively accept this would require the Legislative branch of government to put the people above their own venal interests. Which there is no evidence of happening any time soon.

    If the USA were to spend a fraction of its wealth it lavishes on the Military to this project it would have a portfolio of patents of massive scale within the year - especially if it hoovers up those from companies that have failed.

    So I think that this concept is a good idea. There just appears to be no interest in any of the key players which would need to do something to do so.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  19. #1189
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Well, governments and the corporate world better figure it out soon, because we are now up to Lambda:

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-la...ica/a-58035249

    While this new variant doesn't seem to be worse than Gamma or Delta, it's only a matter of time before the SARS virus figures out a way to flip the bird at vaccines. If new infections are allowed to run rampant in poorer countries because of the lack of vaccines and other medical remediation, we may get a strange ironic twist of the cult classic "The Omega Code". But instead of "he who controls Jerusalem in the final days will control the world", it could very well be "he who controls the COVID vaccines will control the world."

    High Plains Drifter

  20. #1190

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Well, governments and the corporate world better figure it out soon, because we are now up to Lambda:

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-la...ica/a-58035249

    While this new variant doesn't seem to be worse than Gamma or Delta, it's only a matter of time before the SARS virus figures out a way to flip the bird at vaccines. If new infections are allowed to run rampant in poorer countries because of the lack of vaccines and other medical remediation, we may get a strange ironic twist of the cult classic "The Omega Code". But instead of "he who controls Jerusalem in the final days will control the world", it could very well be "he who controls the COVID vaccines will control the world."


    The value of vaccination.




    At this point the Republican Party in the US is really only killing Republicans.

    There's an interesting mismatch between the success of some early predictions of the intensity of the pandemic, and of its overall course.
    Vitiate Man.

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  21. #1191
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    As if we needed more confirmation that the US has gone completely off the rails in terms of public sanity:

    https://www.naccho.org/uploads/downl...-5.24.21pm.pdf

    In recent months, at least 15 state legislatures have passed or are considering measures to limit severely the legal authority of public health agencies to protect the public from serious illness, injury, and death. Other states may consider such legislation in the future. It is foreseeable that these laws will lead to preventable tragedies.

    Specifically, this report finds that dissatisfaction and anger at perceived overreaches by governors and public health officials in response to the COVID-19 pandemic has led to an onslaught of legislative proposals to eliminate or limit the emergency powers and public health authority used by these officials. Public health officials are also being threatened personally.
    Some examples of the legislative insanity:

    -Prohibit requiring masks in any situation, including cases of active tuberculosis [North Dakota]

    -Block the closure of businesses necessary to prevent the spread of disease, allowing for super spreader venues [Kansas]

    -Ban the use of quarantine [Montana]

    -Block state hospitals and universities from requiring vaccinations for employees and students in dormitories to protect state residents [Arizona]

    -Strip local governments, including local health agencies, of the ability to respond to local conditions in an emergency [Texas]

    -Set arbitrary time limit for emergency orders [Florida]

    -Give unilateral power to legislatures to stop public health actions [Ohio]

    Excuse me... Banning masks being used to help prevent the spread of highly infectious, and deadly diseases like TB? Banning the use of quarantine during an infectious disease outbreak? Banning a local health department from responding to a health emergency without approval from legislators? It's apparently not enough to cause the SARS-2 pandemic to be much more severe, and last far longer than it had to. Now there needs to be laws that ensure that thousands more will die because we ham-string healthcare institutions from doing the job they were created for, all under the guise of "protecting 1st Amendment Rights". We've gone completely mad...

    And the rationale for this madness?

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ec-coronavirus

    “The supposed rationale is that a lot happened during Covid. People didn’t like being restricted so much,” said Lori Tremmel Freeman, CEO at the National Association of County and City Health Officials (Naccho).

    Lawmakers across at least nine states have zeroed in on the emergency powers of health departments to limit how people gather in places such as churches, schools and businesses. Conservative model legislation has described these limitations as orders that “infringe on the rights of private parties”.
    So the sense of entitlement here in the states is going well beyond the arguments about wearing masks, and taking vaccines, into the realm of passing legislation that endangers the health and well being of everyone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7AinOjDiNQ

    Too bad we don't have an abyss to kick these morons into...

    And just who is ALEC [no not THAT Alec] but the American Legislative Exchange Council, who are behind much of this effort to hobble health agencies?

    https://www.alecexposed.org/wiki/ALEC_Exposed

    Through the secretive meetings of the American Legislative Exchange Council, corporate lobbyists and state legislators vote as equals on ‘model bills’ to change our rights that often benefit the corporations’ bottom line at public expense. ALEC is a pay-to-play operation where corporations buy a seat and a vote on ‘task forces’ to advance their legislative wish lists and can get a tax break for donations, effectively passing these lobbying costs on to taxpayers.

    Along with legislators, corporations have membership in ALEC. Corporations sit on ALEC task forces and vote with legislators to approve “model” bills. They have their own corporate governing board which meets jointly with the legislative board. (ALEC says that corporations do not vote on the board.) Corporations fund almost all of ALEC's operations.

    Participating legislators, overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, then bring those proposals home and introduce them in statehouses across the land as their own brilliant ideas and important public policy innovations—without disclosing that corporations crafted and voted on the bills.

    ALEC boasts that it has over 1,000 of these bills introduced by legislative members every year, with one in every five of them enacted into law. ALEC describes itself as a “unique,” “unparalleled” and “unmatched” organization.
    ALEC is well funded:

    More than 98% of ALEC's revenues come from sources other than legislative dues, such as corporations, corporate trade groups, and corporate foundations. Each corporate member pays an annual fee of between $7,000 and $25,000 a year, and if a corporation participates in any of the nine task forces, additional fees apply, from $2,500 to $10,000 each year. ALEC also receives direct grants from corporations, such as $1.4 million from ExxonMobil from 1998-2009. It has also received grants from some of the biggest foundations funded by corporate CEOs in the country, such as: the Koch family Charles G. Koch Foundation, the Koch-managed Claude R. Lambe Foundation, the Scaife family Allegheny Foundation, the Coors family Castle Rock Foundation, to name a few. Less than 2% of ALEC’s funding comes from “Membership Dues” of $50 per year paid by state legislators, a steeply discounted price that may run afoul of state gift bans. For more, see CMD's special report on ALEC funding and spending here.
    The who's who of current and past members is telling:

    ALEC members, speakers, alumni, and award winners are a “who’s who” of the extreme right. ALEC has given awards to: Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, George H.W. Bush, Charles and David Koch, Richard de Vos, Tommy Thompson, Gov. John Kasich, Gov. Rick Perry, Congressman Mark Foley (intern sex scandal), and Congressman Billy Tauzin. ALEC alumni include: Vice President Mike Pence, former Speaker of the House John Boehner, former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Congressman Joe Wilson, (who called President Obama a “liar” during the State of the Union address), former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, former House Speaker Tom DeLay, Andrew Card, Donald Rumsfeld (1985 Chair of ALEC’s Business Policy Board), Governor Scott Walker, Governor Jan Brewer, and more. Featured speakers have included: Milton Friedman, Newt Gingrich, Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle, George Allen, Jessie Helms, Pete Coors, Governor Mitch Daniels and more.
    Maybe all these folks should be placed in designated states of their own choosing, and then the borders patrolled by the SPPF (Snake Plissken Police Force)...

    But seriously, we are going to be so screwed when the next pandemic comes around (as it inevitably will), even as we struggle with the current one...
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 07-24-2021 at 20:54.
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  22. #1192

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Is this as bad as it sounds?

    In severe cases of COVID-19, an overactive immune response to the presence of the SARS-Co-V2 virus may occur, which may also cause damage to other organs of the body.

    Complications related to damage of the blood vessels, kidneys, eyes, brain, skin, heart, and gastrointestinal organs may result from severe SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    Current data focusing on mortality outcomes from COVI-19 in the United Kingdom demonstrate that 26% of patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-Co-V2 infection die from their illness.

    [...]

    The study took place in 302 U.K. healthcare facilities between January 17 and August 4, 2020. It enrolled 80,388 patients 19 years or older hospitalized with highly suspected or confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of these, the researchers included 73,197 patients in the analysis.

    The average age of patients included in the study was 71 years, with the majority being male (56%) and white (74%). Eighty-one percent of the patients had underlying conditions at baseline.

    The study measured the incidence of in-hospital neurological, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, complex respiratory, acute kidney injury, and other systemic complications. The trial also examined the patient’s ability for self-care.

    Nurses and medical students collected data at specified intervals: on admission, on days 1, 3, 9 of the hospital stay, and at discharge (or at 28 days if not discharged).

    Of the patients included in the final analysis, the study reported that about 32% died during the trial and 50% experienced at least one complication. Approximately 44% of those that survived had at least one complication.

    The rate of having at least one complication ranged from 27% in patients aged 19–29 years with no comorbidities up to 58% in patients 60–69 years with two or more underlying conditions. The complication rates tended to increase with age and be higher in patients with preexisting medical conditions and in patients designated male at birth.

    Dr. Thomas Drake, a co-author of the study from the University of Edinburgh, U.K., commented for MNT on the findings: “Complications from COVID-19 affect nearly all groups admitted to hospital with severe disease. Although people over 50 years were at the highest risk of developing complications, people under the age of 50 years were also very likely to develop complications, which was a real surprise.”
    In survivors with a complication, about 27% had a decreased ability to care for themselves.
    Over the past year it seems to have been constantly reinforced that CV19 is particularly apt to cause systemic damage with chronic morbidities.
    Vitiate Man.

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  23. #1193

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    According to this visualization of data on breakthrough infections, "of the 164 million vaccinated Americans, around 125,000 [0.077%] people have tested positive for breakthrough infections and 0.001% have died."

    Though 0.001% have died, 0.004% were hospitalized, which unless I'm missing something glaringly-obvious suggests that even ~25% of vaccinated persons needing hospitalization will die of their illness.

    Which reminds me of my post right above this one:

    Current data focusing on mortality outcomes from COVI-19 in the United Kingdom demonstrate that 26% of patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-Co-V2 infection die from their illness.
    And the data underlying that assessment was from a year or more ago! If I were more diligent I would investigate whether this constitutes a general trend.


    By the end of July, the EU had decisively surpassed the United States in vaccination rate, despite the large head start enjoyed by the US. For example, at the beginning of May Sweden had 27% vaxxing to America's 45%, but the gap was closed by mid-July. But isn't that the story with America-everything over the past 50 years? I suppose slow and steady really does win the race. On the other hand, the cresting wave here has concentrated minds among institutional actors in coercing vaccination (we generally refuse to just issue outright mandates yet), with a small concomitant rise in daily doses administered over the past days.

    In less salutary news for the EU, Pfizer and Moderna have been raising the price per dose. I can't find information on how, or whether, prices have changed for the EU, or for the UK or US, before, but depending on that balance the strenuous effort the EU put last year into securing relatively-low prices as a primary priority in its vaccine program looks even more questionable.

    Speaking of vaccine prices, according to Oxfam the vaccine monopolies allow for the collection of a handsome income.

    New analysis by the Alliance shows that the firms Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are charging governments as much as $41 billion above the estimated cost of production. Colombia, for example, has potentially overpaid by as much as $375 million for its doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, in comparison to the estimated cost price.

    Despite a rapid rise in COVID cases and deaths across the developing world, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have sold over 90 percent of their vaccines so far to rich countries, charging up to 24 times the potential cost of production. Last week Pfizer/BioNTech announced it would licence a South African company to fill and package 100 million doses for use in Africa, but this is a drop in the ocean of need. Neither company have agreed to fully transfer vaccine technology and know-how with any capable producers in developing countries, a move that could increase global supply, drive down prices and save millions of lives.

    Analysis of production techniques for the leading mRNA type vaccines produced by Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna ―which were only developed thanks to public funding to the tune of $8.3 billion― suggest these vaccines could be made for as little as $1.20 a dose. Yet COVAX, the scheme set up to help countries get access to COVID vaccines, has been paying, on average, nearly five times more. COVAX has also struggled to get enough doses and at the speed required, because of the inadequate supply and the fact that rich nations have pushed their way to the front of the queue by willingly paying excessive prices.
    @ReluctantSamurai

    Ya think if Biden promised to donate a few hundred million doses (maybe 90% of all remaining deliveries for 2021) on account of 'Every American who wants one has one, and we can now fight the virus abroad so we don't have to fight it at home. Freedom!' we would see a run on stock in Republican areas?

    Yet the EU reportedly paid even higher prices for its second order from Pfizer/BioNTech.
    [...]
    The EU may have overpaid for their 1.96 billion Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines by as much as €31 billion.
    The UK alone has potentially paid £1.8 billion more than the cost of production for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines ―enough money to pay every worker in its National Health Service (NHS) a bonus of more than £1000.
    [...]
    The UK is reported to have paid £15 a dose for the Pfizer vaccine and has ordered 100 million doses. For Moderna they are reported to have paid £25 per dose and have ordered 17 million doses. If these two vaccines were produced at the production price estimated by Public Citizen, the UK would have saved £1.8 billion
    If all the above so far is current, the EU has indeed lost any price advantage (which was also negated in the first place by choosing to order 4 doses per person, as I pointed out months ago).


    Or, ignoring all else, a couple billion extra isn't a big deal for a rich continent. The EU is still currently at the level of fiscal discipline of Obama's 2009 stimulus (slow progress from the disastrous austerity of the then-contemporary EU). I'm pretty sure every single EU country can currently raise 10-year bonds with <1% or negative nominal interest rates. To say nothing of Eurobonds: the 800 billion Euro program that I'm referring to is reportedly raising that partly through 10-year bonds with yield of 0.086%. Take the free money and do something useful! Make more!
    https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/fina.../index.en.html
    https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...asset-59624136
    Last edited by Montmorency; 08-03-2021 at 05:52.
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  24. #1194
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Ya think if Biden promised to donate a few hundred million doses (maybe 90% of all remaining deliveries for 2021) on account of 'Every American who wants one has one, and we can now fight the virus abroad so we don't have to fight it at home. Freedom!' we would see a run on stock in Republican areas?
    I think the 100,000 new daily cases, mostly from the Delta variant is already affecting that run on getting vaccinated....
    High Plains Drifter

  25. #1195
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    I think the 100,000 new daily cases, mostly from the Delta variant is already affecting that run on getting vaccinated....
    My anecdotal experience coheres with this sentiment. Apparently, once you know someone personally under the age of 50 who has been dead or maimed by this illness, the concept of getting vaccinated seems less onerous.

    Nice to know that a ballpeen hammer to the forehead will still get the attention of most folks. Sadly, only 'most.'
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  26. #1196

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Another cool resource, this one visualizing the progress of Covid variants.
    https://covariants.org/per-country

    Vitiate Man.

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  27. #1197
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    **SIGH**

    How many times are we going to have to see this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...again-pandemic

    The Texas trauma service area that includes Austin only has six available ICU beds, 499 available hospital beds and 313 available ventilators – a stunning dearth of resources for a population nearly 2.4 million strong.

    As a whole, Texas currently ranks second behind Florida for the highest daily average Covid-19 cases, with infections up 134% over the last 14 days. And between early February and mid-July, roughly 99.5% of Texans who died from the virus were unvaccinated, the Texas Tribune reported.

    Meanwhile, local officials who want to implement proven public health measures to mitigate the spread have been hamstrung by Texas governor Greg Abbott, who has implemented a sweeping order restricting vaccine and mask mandates.
    Too bad elected officials seem to have a defacto "qualified immunity' when it comes to killing their own constituents...

    ....and Wizard's First Rule applies to people like this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...xer-dies-covid

    Still think Dr. Fauci is a “power-tripping lying freak”? Oh yeah, you don't have an opinion anymore......you're dead
    High Plains Drifter

  28. #1198

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    At the end of June in the US, the positivity rate in testing was 2%. Now it's pushing past 15%, the highest since April 2020.

    Florida and Texas are severely hit by all accounts, with up to 0.1% of Duval County residents (Jacksonville, Florida) in the hospital with Covid at any one time. Thankfully, their mask mandate bans (that is, bans on requiring masks) are being successfully stalled in the courts or openly defied for now.

    (There are probably more reports of hospitals being overwhelmed nowadays because the hospitalizations are more geographically concentrated...)
    Vitiate Man.

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  29. #1199

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    What happens when violent anti-rationalism becomes a political movement.

    The Delta waves in the US and Canada, a striking contrast. Fully vaccinated of total population:
    Canada 64%
    US 50%
    (I would also point to differences in social distancing and masking behaviors/policies, among other things.)



    Last edited by Montmorency; 08-14-2021 at 02:52.
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  30. #1200
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Too bad elected officials seem to have a defacto "qualified immunity' when it comes to killing their own constituents...
    To be fair, many of those dying are those who've refused vaccination despite its easy availability for several months now. So its more of an "accessory before the fact" status in many cases.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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