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Thread: Coronavirus / COVID-19

  1. #421
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Consider that America is third in population, first in wealth and has high freedom of information. Loads of people, loads of testing and loads of reporting, as much as said reporters might whinge otherwise. The only nations who likely even could end up with higher numbers recorded are India and China. Both went into lockdown further than America has, or likely even could. Both have a comparitive dearth of information compared to America

    India is in a word: under-tested, the level of stats other nations have gathered just plain dont exist yet. Considering the sheer number of people they have to deal with in poor living conditions, as well as thier level of development... well we'd better hope a vaccine or a cheap reliable treatment comes before the lockdown becomes impossible to sustain.

    China has a different problem; thier testing cannot be trusted because the chinese government cant be trusted. They screwed up the opening beyond just the local level, have been taking efforts to suppress third party reporting and even inter-china communication regarding the virus, making the only source for statistics out of china the state censored ones.

    Even were the official numbers not doctored behind the scenes they would be underreported compared to american reports simply because they intentionally do not count asymptomatic cases and the quality control in thier testing kits are proving unreliable.

    Now consider that most of the world's nations are going to be in a situation like china or india, or a combination both, and it becomes much less outrageous that america would post the largest number.

    Taking this into consideration it would be a good idea if we could avoid falling into the "metal helmets cause more headwounds" trap over the disparity in statistics here. Remember, spanish flu wasnt called that because it came from there or that it was extraordinarily affected but because spain was the first area it hit that didnt have reporting suppressed so as to not undertmine a war effort, France, Germany, the UK and perhaps even the US were hit before Spain was.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-28-2020 at 01:50.
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  2. #422
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Taking this into consideration it would be a good idea if we could avoid falling into the "metal helmets cause more headwounds" trap over the disparity in statistics here.
    Dunno what this means. The "America First" was meant as a parody of a "Trumpism" that has come to pass, just not in the way he intended. In the coming weeks, India will probably surge to the forefront as the virus burns through all those tightly packed urban areas; Africa and S.America will probably be right behind.

    and perhaps even the US were hit before Spain was
    By many accounts, the first wave of the 1918 outbreak started in the US, was spread to Europe by US soldiers, and then returned to the US in a more virulent form when those soldiers returned.

    and it becomes much less outrageous that america would post the largest number
    What's outrageous is that the US wasted at least six weeks of response time listening to the BS being spouted from the White House. Yeah, hindsight is always 20/20....blah, blah, blah....but by the third week of February (particularly after the WHO-China report was released), it was obvious that containment was out of the question and preparations should have begun in earnest to get the hospitals ready. And so we have what we have here, as a result
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  3. #423

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    It was not foreordained that the US should be the epicenter of COVID-19, or that its president should echo Stalinist terror against his political enemies. This is far beyond even depraved indifference.


    What else I heard: EU is activating the general escape clause for the first time in history. Let's end austerity forever?


    @samurai: Aylward and WHO being sketchy.
    https://twitter.com/wilfredchan/stat...87606569590784

    Now that would be within the proper terminological scope of "political correctness." :(
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  4. #424
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Re: Metal helmets cause more head wounds
    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Dunno what this means.
    I think this is a good analogy of his analogy:
    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...tuitive-world/
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  5. #425
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    What else I heard: EU is activating the general escape clause for the first time in history. Let's end austerity forever?
    This is indeed a change, but it a changes that should have been made in 2013/14 when Italy nearly went to the wall.

    What has not been is the agreement between the Germany+Hansa2.0 and France+ClubMed that debt mutualisation is the only healthy future that the eurozone has.
    This failed to happen on Thursday, and Ministers have wasted another fortnight trying to bring magic to the world - all the while economic capacity and regenerative vitality dies!

    The damage will be global, but the disparity in recovery will starkly reveal those 'states' that can adapt quickly vs those that cannot.
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  6. #426
    Ni dieu ni maître! Senior Member a completely inoffensive name's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Trump hording the ventilators for the Red states who will vote for him and are currently shitting the bed with their inaction.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...state-problem/

    I think it is now a safe bet that future historians will rank Trump possibly as just barely above Buchanan. Depending on his conduct during the election, he may secure last place.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  7. #427

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Trump hording the ventilators for the Red states who will vote for him and are currently shitting the bed with their inaction.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...state-problem/

    I think it is now a safe bet that future historians will rank Trump possibly as just barely above Buchanan. Depending on his conduct during the election, he may secure last place.
    Bottom 3 are definitely (unordered) Trump, Johnson, Bush II. Buchanan's main demerit is not being an affirmatively good president when the country needed one. Not that he didn't help along secessionism, but you have to weigh these things according to context and causal responsibility. You could put him in the bottom 5, but Johnson's sabotage of Reconstruction is IMO worse than Buchanan staying the course to destruction. And Bush II was certainly our very worst, until the challenger appeared.
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  8. #428
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Are we in a position to say that johnson has done a bad job yet?
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  9. #429
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Re: Metal helmets cause more head wounds


    I think this is a good analogy of his analogy:
    https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...tuitive-world/
    I would just like to point out that Mother Jones has a heartbreaking swing-and-miss ratio when it comes to getting the point. It's not as bad in this article, but the article on "big plastic" seems to go everywhere except where it needs to go. Namely, asking why do people still have difficulty realizing that you can wash cloth bags.*

    There was another article about how people shouldn't be getting money, because them not having money isn't the problem. I wonder if the author of that article went outside and noticed what happened to all the restaurants, theaters and other high volume areas and wondered what happened to all the people normally staffing them?

    *I remember back in the mid 2000s, I watched a CNN report about how surprised people were that there were bacteria in their cloth bags that they never washed. I also did a personal study in a dormitory common bathroom during my early days at Uni, and found that no one washed their hands. Not that they didn't wash them properly, but that they just went straight out after relieving themselves. It is puzzling what the parents of these individuals were doing in place of actually raising them to have any skills, manners or common sense.

    This is sort of a non-sequitur, but I have difficulty relating to these types of people. Sort of like I have difficulty understanding all of the apocalyptic reports regarding people's social lives. Your friends aren't dead. If your mom and dad stay inside, they will probably be fine.

    In Brazil, where the president would rather see corpses in huge piles, so long as the factories continue making cars, presumably to fill up all of those tombs for the deceased so that they will have vehicles in the afterlife. In India, the authorities had at least a month after the pandemic began to fully take hold, and they couldn't even cobble together a sensible message. I still see people wandering around in parks in large groups because they still don't seem to GET IT. The world around them is undergoing something, and they just space out like their minds cannot comprehend how they fit in to society.

    People buy all of these huge houses, but don't want to spend any time in them. You have 10 social media accounts, but none of them give you any satisfaction. Why would that be?
    Last edited by CrossLOPER; 03-28-2020 at 21:06.
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  10. #430
    Member Member Greyblades's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Are we in a position to say that johnson has done a bad job yet?
    Doesnt matter, at this point I am convinced its no longer a joke that as long as a politician is the wrong ideology they could cure cancer and half the internet would bitch about them putting chemotherapists out of work.

    Really tiring.
    Last edited by Greyblades; 03-28-2020 at 22:02.
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  11. #431
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Aylward and WHO being sketchy.
    Perhaps the WHO doesn't want to pi$$ off China by giving kudos to Taiwan? (or in this case acknowledging they even exist)

    Still doesn't invalidate the scientific work done to prepare that paper
    High Plains Drifter

  12. #432
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    On the possible federal lock-down of NY:

    Mr Trump did not provide further details about what a quarantine on New York or other badly hit US cities would look like. But he said it would be aimed at slowing the spread of the virus to other parts of the US. "They're having problems down in Florida. A lot of New Yorkers are going down. We don't want that," he said as he left the White House.
    Donny Baby---how 'bout you lock down Florida:

    https://twitter.com/TectonixGEO/stat...28347034767361

    The 'Big Brother' implications are scary, but nonetheless the data shows where all those idiots on the beach went back to after the booze was all gone....

    I think we should start a new thread with nothing but stories about human interests, both uplifting and tragic (no politics, just about people), like this one:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-52078098
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 03-28-2020 at 22:38.
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  13. #433
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    Are we in a position to say that johnson has done a bad job yet?
    Quote Originally Posted by Greyblades View Post
    Doesnt matter, at this point I am convinced its no longer a joke that as long as a politician is the wrong ideology they could cure cancer and half the internet would bitch about them putting chemotherapists out of work.

    Really tiring.
    LOL, you bois just see the word Johnson and assume it's about Boris? Andrew Johnson, the 17th US President who fucked over Lincoln's policies and was one vote away from removal of office.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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  14. #434
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Bottom 3 are definitely (unordered) Trump, Johnson, Bush II. Buchanan's main demerit is not being an affirmatively good president when the country needed one. Not that he didn't help along secessionism, but you have to weigh these things according to context and causal responsibility. You could put him in the bottom 5, but Johnson's sabotage of Reconstruction is IMO worse than Buchanan staying the course to destruction. And Bush II was certainly our very worst, until the challenger appeared.
    Buchanan didn't even try and was sympathetic to the south to the point where his response to secession was calling for convention to write slaves as property into the constitution. He would have let the south break off if it wasn't for his more competent (and patriotic) staff and he would have given the south everything they wanted if it wasn't for Lincoln guiding his party to reject further compromises.

    I wouldn't call Bush II the worst, that is a very near sighted view. Bush II is in bottom 5, but not the worst.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  15. #435
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Behind soft paywall as always - a map of the crisis.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...premium-europe
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

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  16. #436

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    "Good lord this video. Like a thoroughbred making a late break in a horse race"
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1244119212701990913


    Probably belated, but a good formulation of Policy recommendations from Abdul el-Sayed:

    5 goals:

    1) See curve: deploy tests efficiently
    2) Flatten curve: Reduce transmission
    3) Prepare for curve: Increase healthcare capacity
    4) Catch curve: Contact trace below a threshold
    4) Save livelihoods

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    1/
    GOAL #1: SEE CURVE -

    We don't have good visibility for 2 reasons:

    a) our tests are being used mainly on ppl who already presumptive(+) because we're using them at point of care for sick pts.
    b) there's a huge gap btwn when ppl are infected & when we get their test outcomes

    2/
    So instead of using tests at point of care when it doesn't change management:

    1) I'd be saving 5-10% of our #COVID tests to deploy in a small representative sample of the population to better understand the spread of disease, and the burden that's on its way

    3/
    2) I'd screen every responder/provider on the frontlines of #COVID-care by testing at 5-day intervals. They'd be isolated if (+) so not to spread. Not a perfect screen, but better than no test or symptomatic tests.

    3) Most tests would deploy at triage in goal 3 (see tweet 12)
    4/
    The random sample tests may sound like a waste of resources.

    But they're CRITICAL: they help to model where the disease is headed, which allows us to "skate to where the puck is going," rather than just where it is right now.

    That way, we're not constantly catching up.

    5/
    GOAL #2: FLATTEN CURVE -

    I agree w/ "Stay at home" orders.

    Would add:

    1) require curbside protocols + no touch payment (online/phone) + social distancing workplace rules

    2) require gas stations to wipe stations between customers

    6/
    I would also set a clear guideline for a phased let-down of #socialdistancing protocols as we meet certain points on the epidemic curve on the way down--creating a transparent, science-based answer to "when are we done with this" that the community can track and understand

    7/
    GOAL #3: PREPARE FOR CURVE -

    The whole point of #SocialDistancing is to reduce the peak of the crest of #COVID patients. But the other thing we have to do is INCREASE the # of patients we can care for.

    That's the whole point here. We have to PREPARE for the rush.

    8/
    At BEST, that means setting up an alternative #COVID-care system.

    In every major metro + some rural communities, I'd ID a hotel, a dorm, or convention center to start preparing as a hospital now.

    No one in the state should be more than 1 hr from a #COVID-care facility.

    9/
    That's where I'd be sending all the #COVID patients. There, a team of MDs/NPs/PAs would oversee a team of folks trained specifically to manage #COVID19 patients.

    Could train EMTs, MAs, and other health pros. If well managed, a few MDs/NPs/PAs could manage many others.

    10/
    How to decide who goes to #COVID-care? An algorithm and a system of triage centers in front of every ER + urgicare.

    First, set up triage centers to segregate folks into the usual healthcare system (for non-COVID) vs. the #COVID19 system

    11/
    Second, create an algorithm to ID #COVID probability. Using temp, # of COVID exposures, & chest x-ray/CT result--calculate probability score

    For very high/low #COVID probability, no test.

    Test mid-range probability.

    All high probability & (+) patients go to #COVID-care.

    12/
    Segregating #COVID has several advantages:
    1) We don't overwhelm usual healthcare system
    2) We reduce contamination of COVID(-) sick in the usual system
    3) We concentrate where we send COVID resources (#PPE, #ventilators) to facilitate logistics

    13/
    Resource procurement for #COVID-care is key. First, #POTUS needs to activate #DefenseProductionAct, which appears to be happening now for #ventilators.

    But we also need it for #PPE and #tests.

    Most of my messaging/time would be focused on getting resources to COVID-care

    14/
    GOAL #4: CATCH THE CURVE

    It's a misnomer that we can't "contain" #COVID19. We just can't contain it NOW. Once case # falls, contact tracing/containment can begin again.

    Along w/ transparent easing of #SocialDistancing as cases fall, I'd ramp containment up, a new phase.

    15/
    We'd need to start stockpiling tests & training up a large staff of contact-tracers beforehand to be ready to contact-trace at scale once case # falls below a certain number. That would require us to contact-trace all new cases beyond a point on the epi curve.

    16/
    It would mean a new strategic deployment of tests vs what I discussed above, focusing on testing contacts of cases who aren't already recovered (and presumed immune--though need more data on this point).

    Would enforce isolation for all exposed & (+) so no rebound case jump

    17/
    GOAL #5: SAVE LIVELIHOODS:

    Along w/ resources, I'd be spending a lot of time lobbying for relief on the economic front.

    That's full UBI, waived healthcare costs, small business grants.

    That's holding corps accountable for lost jobs/broken bargaining agreements/buybacks.

    18/
    I'm grateful to the state & local public officials on the front lines rn. I wish I were there with you. I can only imagine the stress & sleepless nights. Thank you - you're heroes.

    I hope this can be a helpful resource from one epidemiologist/former health director.

    19/19
    AND - gaming this from the luxury of my #quarantine is SUPER different than doing it real life. SO I very much appreciate that, as @MikeTyson said:

    "Everyone's got a plan, until they get punched in the mouth."

    Inevitably, the official tally of COVID cases and deaths is going to be a severe undercount of the true national and global progressions of the disease. A quick look at what may be an instance of this in Italy:
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...ly-please-read

    Here are the relevant statistics.

    Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the town most hard hit in per capita terms by COVID-19. Currently the town has 31 deaths attributed to COVID-19. But when the two authors looked at the total number of deaths registered in the town in January, February and March and compared it to the average for that period in previous years they found the number was dramatically larger. 158 deaths have been registered in the town during that period this year compared to an average of 35 in previous years.

    The math is simple: the average of 35 plus the 31 COVID-19 deaths gets you to 66. But the town has recorded almost 100 more deaths on top of that. As the authors say, “The difference is enormous and cannot be a simple statistical deviation.”

    The authors applied the same analysis to two other towns and in both came up with anomalous deaths 6.1 times the number officially attributed to COVID-19. The ratio was even higher for Bergamo as a whole.

    As I said, these numbers are so stark that I don’t think you need a lot of training in statistics to see that something very big is happening with these numbers and it is almost certainly tied to COVID-19.

    This chart from the article, even though the legend is in Italian, makes the point clearly enough. Blue is the baseline. Green is the official COVID-19 death toll. And red is the actual recorded all-cause mortality in the town for the period in question.



    The authors go on to speculate or argue that the answer is something like universal infection from COVID-19. They note that if all citizens of the town had been infected, 158 deaths would equal to 1% mortality, which is close to the ballpark estimate most epidemiologist are working with. (11,500 residents and 123 fatalities, when you subtract the average of 35 deaths from the recorded number of 158.)

    This strikes me as considerably more speculative interpretation. Certainly there are more actual than confirmed infections in every area affected by COVID-19. So this must be part of the explanation. But it also seems possible to me that some significant part of this is people dying from other ailments they might have survived because of the degraded standard of care amidst a pandemic.
    I don't want to look into what this may be, but suspect it will come up again in the future.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive

    I've seen multiple sources point out lately that any face covering or mask appreciably reduces the risk of transmission or infection. Generally the discourse has been that masks should be reserved for healthcare workers and the ill, but here a sociologist points out that institutional messaging and guidelines on mask usage have been elitist, contradictory, and counterproductive. I regret once upholding and promulgating these flawed guidelines, including the CDC's and WHO's own, on who should wear masks and when.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...ace-masks.html


    @ Samurai: The bastage in Hungary went and did it. When we liberate ourselves we need to return to Europe and finish the job. ;)

    That the EU has neither the will nor the power to do anything about this is one of those testaments to its weakness.

    Meanwhile, Mexico's president is REALLY insistent on being a disappointment and a failure.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-31-2020 at 02:22.
    Vitiate Man.

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  17. #437

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19




    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  18. #438
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    "Good lord this video. Like a thoroughbred making a late break in a horse race"
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1244119212701990913


    Probably belated, but a good formulation of Policy recommendations from Abdul el-Sayed:




    Inevitably, the official tally of COVID cases and deaths is going to be a severe undercount of the true national and global progressions of the disease. A quick look at what may be an instance of this in Italy:
    https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...ly-please-read



    I don't want to look into what this may be, but suspect it will come up again in the future.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...-then-positive

    I've seen multiple sources point out lately that any face covering or mask appreciably reduces the risk of transmission or infection. Generally the discourse has been that masks should be reserved for healthcare workers and the ill, but here a sociologist points out that institutional messaging and guidelines on mask usage have been elitist, contradictory, and counterproductive. I regret once upholding and promulgating these flawed guidelines, including the CDC's and WHO's own, on who should wear masks and when.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/o...ace-masks.html


    @ Samurai: The bastage in Hungary went and did it. When we liberate ourselves we need to return to Europe and finish the job. ;)

    That the EU has neither the will nor the power to do anything about this is one of those testaments to its weakness.

    Meanwhile, Mexico's president is REALLY insistent on being a disappointment and a failure.
    There can be a difference between medical definition and social definition. They can count only those specifically with Covid-19 infections as having died with Covid-19, while others may have died without the infection or associated symptoms, but with other conditions that the doctors cannot cope with because they are snowed under with dealing with Covid-19. If you want an accurate tracker of the progress of Covid-19 infections, you count only the first group. The second group may be a more accurate tracker of the social effects of the virus, but does it help measure the effectiveness of actions taken?

  19. #439
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    There can be a difference between medical definition and social definition. They can count only those specifically with Covid-19 infections as having died with Covid-19, while others may have died without the infection or associated symptoms, but with other conditions that the doctors cannot cope with because they are snowed under with dealing with Covid-19. If you want an accurate tracker of the progress of Covid-19 infections, you count only the first group. The second group may be a more accurate tracker of the social effects of the virus, but does it help measure the effectiveness of actions taken?
    Whether someone dies as a direct result of SARS-CoV-2, or from something else because there wasn't room at the hospital to treat them, is there really any difference? If the actions taken by government leaders leads to a severe lack of preparedness, and people die that otherwise might not have, they should be counted as COVID-19 casualties.

    While an exact count may never be possible, the increase in y-o-y deaths is probably as good a measure as any
    High Plains Drifter

  20. #440
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    The number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in Norway is currently levelling off:



    (source)

    This is another data point indicating that "lockdowns" might not be necessary to avoid overwhelmed hospitals, as long as other adequate measures are introduced early enough.
    Runes for good luck:

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  21. #441
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Whether someone dies as a direct result of SARS-CoV-2, or from something else because there wasn't room at the hospital to treat them, is there really any difference? If the actions taken by government leaders leads to a severe lack of preparedness, and people die that otherwise might not have, they should be counted as COVID-19 casualties.

    While an exact count may never be possible, the increase in y-o-y deaths is probably as good a measure as any
    If a particular measure results in a reduction in directly affected Covid-19 victims, then they need to know the exact figures on that, and not have that mixed up with other subsequent stats. They know there are subsequent effects, so it's not as if they are disregarding them.

  22. #442
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    This is another data point indicating that "lockdowns" might not be necessary to avoid overwhelmed hospitals, as long as other adequate measures are introduced early enough.
    Those other "adequate measures" are likely one of the reasons for slowing infections. Norway has one of the highest levels of tests per million, exceeding even S. Korea. This allows for tracing contacts which is crucial in slowing infection rates. Couple that with Norway's lower population density (outside of Oslo), and a quick response keeps the virus spread in a "containment" phase rather than a "suppression" phase.

    Once the window of opportunity has passed for containment, the only tactic available is the "sledgehammer" tactic of quarantine. So kudos to Norway's leaders if the leveling trend continues

    and not have that mixed up with other subsequent stats
    If you have y-o-y statistics for deaths over an extended period of time, then any large spike in recorded deaths not directly linked to SARS-CoV-2 since the beginning of March can be indirectly linked, yes? But, I suppose a line has to be drawn somewhere, otherwise you start counting deaths from civil unrest (murders, suicides, etc.), or like those unfortunate souls in India that will die on their trek home
    High Plains Drifter

  23. #443

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Most accurate gif. https://twitter.com/jon_m_green/stat...65744342208512

    Maybe sometimes Big Daddy Government is good.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    In short, we should pay people to stay home — and pay handsomely. Why? Because such a strategy works to stop an epidemic.

    This vital object lesson comes to us from an unlikely source: the history of animal agriculture in the United States. In fact, the earliest effective government responses to epidemic illness in the United States came not in the context of human health, but in the context of livestock. A little known government agency, the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI) in the U. S. Department of Agriculture, pioneered effective responses to addressing epidemic illness, making the United States a global leader in this area of veterinary medicine. The BAI’s approach, known as “area eradication,” used a combination of quarantines and financial incentives to completely eradicate the pathogens of targeted veterinary illnesses. It was so successful, public health officials concerned with human illnesses studied it closely and modeled smallpox eradication campaigns from it. Today, as we grapple with covid-19 we need to heed these lessons once again.

    The Bureau of Animal Industry was created within the USDA in 1884, at a time when animal agriculture was one of the largest sectors of the American economy. The United States had always been an agricultural economy, but the political ascendance of the Republican Party in the aftermath of the Civil War unlocked massive agricultural expansion. The U.S. military and settlers forcibly removed indigenous populations from millions of Western acres and slaughtered wholesale the bison that grazed there. Thanks to the Homestead Act of 1862 and the federally subsidized expansion of the railroads across the continent, cattle quickly replaced bison as the dominant grazers.

    Cattle then became one of the most valuable resources in the growing agricultural economy. They grazed on the High Plains and then were transported by rail to Chicago for slaughter. From Chicago, various animal products — meat, tallow, cheese and hides — streamed East and even to Europe. By 1900, approximately 4.3 percent of the nation’s wealth was held in livestock, larger than the value of the nation’s railroads, and second only to land as a class of assets. Animal products were also a substantial export, with barreled American pork a ubiquitous presence in European markets. Even by 1870, a full fifth of the value of U.S. exports came from animal products.

    The global circulation of meat and animal products also created the context for the circulation of disease. As animals traversed the North American continent, they mingled in close quarters in rail cars, feedlots and stockyards. They traded illnesses under the best of conditions, but the tight spaces of animal agriculture were also rarely hygienic. Endemic livestock illness could take a staggering economic toll, with sick and dying animals costing farmers millions. It could also ruin the nation’s already spotty reputation as a global supplier of meat. Between 1879 and 1881, Spain, Germany, France, Italy and Austria-Hungary all imposed bans on U.S. pork products due to concerns about endemic trichinosis.

    Given these stakes, when epidemics of contagious bovine pleuropneumonia and Texas fever hit the U.S. cattle supply in 1884, Congress took action. Coordinating the nation’s response to veterinary illness and securing the safety of the nation’s supply of meat necessitated a federal agency. With the new BAI created, President Chester A. Arthur appointed Daniel Salmon, a veterinarian, to head it, reflecting the agency’s primary focus on the control of veterinary illness. (The bacteria salmonella, discovered by one of his assistants, is named in Salmon’s honor.)

    The BAI’s powers were vast and unprecedented. The BAI claimed the immediate ability to supervise and regulate slaughterhouses connected to global and interstate trade. But Salmon also worked with state governments to craft agreements that deputized BAI agents and endowed them with powers usually reserved for state and municipal law enforcement: the right to enter private property, to declare a quarantine, to seize and kill infected and exposed animals and even to destroy any buildings that might harbor contagions.

    With these powers, the BAI pursued an unprecedented approach that came to be known as “area eradication.” The BAI would stop the spread of infectious veterinary illness by eradicating disease pathogens entirely. This required establishing a quarantine zone and restricting the transportation of animals in and out of those zones. Next, they seized and killed all infected animals within the zone (and sometimes merely exposed animals, as well). Finally, they sterilized and destroyed any buildings or equipment that they believed might spread disease.

    Salmon and other experts at the BAI were acutely aware of how quarantine could hurt business. They reasoned that restrictive measures alone would suffer from a fatal flaw: Farmers would resist having their stock seized and killed, since it would mean immediate financial ruin. They would do everything they could to conceal evidence of illness, to quietly treat sick animals themselves, to avoid public veterinary health officials and finally to stealthily transport their stock out of the quarantine zones and sell them in other markets. Rather than containing illness, such responses would spread disease further and could accelerate small outbreaks into devastating pandemics.

    The BAI had a simple pragmatic approach that defied short term market logics: They offered to purchase sick animals at rates close to the market value of healthy animals. This encouraged farmers to voluntarily cooperate with quarantine measures rather than trying to evade them, avoiding long term catastrophic losses for the agricultural industry.

    The BAI’s approach was enormously successful. In 1892, a BAI campaign successfully eradicated contagious bovine pleuropneumonia in the United States. Successful campaigns to eradicate Texas fever, hog cholera and bovine tuberculosis all came in the following decades. Congress strengthened the BAI’s hand further with the Federal Meat Inspection Act of 1906. Meanwhile, public health officials studied the BAI’s approach, and contemporary epidemiologists credit the BAI with pioneering “the precedent and mechanisms” that would lead to smallpox eradication.

    This history reminds us that quarantines may be tools of medical authority, but their success and failure depends on human psychology informed by material needs. BAI experts immediately understood the inseparability of the economic and the medical precisely because the victims of disease were property. This sparked thinking that sought to align financial interest with public health priorities.

    Humans cannot be reduced to their economic value, but the larger lesson applies now as well: Efforts to stabilize the “economy” must be structured to reinforce public health measures. We cannot make it a “sacrifice” to stay home under quarantine. We need to make staying home the lucrative option. If that seems too expensive to you, weigh it against the death of millions. The choice should be obvious.


    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    There can be a difference between medical definition and social definition. They can count only those specifically with Covid-19 infections as having died with Covid-19, while others may have died without the infection or associated symptoms, but with other conditions that the doctors cannot cope with because they are snowed under with dealing with Covid-19. If you want an accurate tracker of the progress of Covid-19 infections, you count only the first group. The second group may be a more accurate tracker of the social effects of the virus, but does it help measure the effectiveness of actions taken?
    A further complication in assembling data on the pandemic, arising from year-on-year comparisons, is that not all COVID hospitalizations and fatalities are registered as such on the spot.

    For example, to my understanding even in Italy, where severe cases in hospital are or have been prioritized for testing, not every true case is confirmed or disconfirmed. If a case is not identified during or prior to the treatment process it will likely not be ascertained following death (following recovery and discharge, pending the introduction of antibody tests). So the number of true cases is submerged at all points in the healthcare system. Meanwhile, in other jurisdictions such as New York, the protocols for allocating tests will contribute to the challenge, because there severe cases are dispreferred for testing and are treated as presumptive COVID so that tests can be reserved for other populations. What I do not know is, if these presumptive cases die without having been tested, are they then recorded as COVID fatalities? Practical decisions in a short-term medical context may thus potentially create incomplete information or discontinuities from the perspective of subsequent documentation and analysis.

    There are some relatively-strong proxies for COVID, viz. pneumonia diagnosis and ILI (influenze-like infections). Since these diseases or presentations are often correlated with COVID-19, assessing how many die of or are hospitalized for pneumonia or ILI would bring us closer to the true toll - albeit contributive toward some level of overcount, since there will have been cases of pneumonia or ILI, possibly even at elevated rates, independent of coronavirus.

    Also troublesome are the physical and material limitations of a healthcare system operating under strain, in establishing even loose causes of death for a growing backlog of corpses of such number that they have to be stored in refrigerated units. All typical 'peri-clinical' (not the right word here, help me out) functions of the healthcare process, including diagnosis, record keeping, and autopsy, are being degraded.

    Of course I don't have the knowledge set to navigate these issues, but we do know, at least in the US, that public databases are maintained that collate data and statistics on things like rates of hospitalization for ILI. Once the pandemic finally peaks (in the northern hemisphere) we will assuredly be subject to a trickle of studies estimating the full extent of the pandemic.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 03-31-2020 at 17:21.
    Vitiate Man.

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  24. #444
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Of course I don't have the knowledge set to navigate these issues, but we do know, at least in the US, that public databases are maintained that collate data and statistics on things like rates of hospitalization for ILI. Once the pandemic finally peaks (in the northern hemisphere) we will assuredly be subject to a trickle of studies estimating the full extent of the pandemic.
    Academe has lots of folks with time on their hands and SPSSX on their home computers. The 'trickle' will rapidly become deluvian.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  25. #445

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19







    Wooooo!!!

  26. #446

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Is there anything readable in English about this? I'm wary of taking a youtube video at their word, in another language I don't understand no less.


    Wooooo!!!

  27. #447

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    I remember reading WHO's claim (6:10) that there was no evidence of human-to-human infection, which was following the local government of Wuhan's initial claim in early January. I was confused at that time because the whistleblowers in Wuhan said that it was highly contagious between human-to-human. This was when I began to distrust the WHO.

    Wooooo!!!

  28. #448
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    WHO budget contributors (can't find more recent figures for 2019-2020):[as a percentage of budget]

    USA---22%
    Japan---10.8%
    Germany---7%
    France---5.6%
    China---5.1%
    UK---5.2%

    Full list here:

    https://www.who.int/about/finances-a...12_en.pdf?ua=1

    And revenue by type:

    https://www.kff.org/global-health-po...-organization/

    Results of an internal/external audit in 2017:

    https://apps.who.int/gb/ebwha/pdf_fi.../A71_29-en.pdf

    Note the risk issues on p6:

    Financing of the 2018-2019 Programme budget (primary risk related to flexible funding due to reduction in core voluntary contributions and uncertainty regarding future funding prospects)
    I can't find a breakout for the "Voluntary Contributions" portion of the WHO, which constitutes 80% of its' revenue. (it's probably somewhere in one of those links on the fact sheet), but I'd venture a guess that China is major contributor??
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 04-01-2020 at 17:06.
    High Plains Drifter

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  29. #449
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19

    Newsreader can't believe what she is reading.

    If you don't want to watch, we have been hearing a lot in recent days of non-specialist companies adapting to produce ventilators, with numbers of 30,000 being mooted. The first batch is being produced this weekend, numbering 30. And yes, they did double check the number, as they couldn't believe what they were reading when the news was forwarded.

  30. #450

    Default Re: Coronavirus / COVID-19




    Republican governance.

    Throughout the coronavirus pandemic, President Trump spent weeks in denial, snapped suddenly into taking the threat seriously, reverted to denialism, and has, for the moment, toggled back to serious concern. In his Sunday press conference, Trump cited his public-health experts and refrained from promising a quick end to social distancing. Yet the threat of recidivism hovers over the presidency. At any moment, the wrong CEO or Fox News personality might get Trump’s ear and persuade him to toggle back to insouciance.

    Trump’s congenital impatience is not the only culprit. Republican governors in several states have downplayed the virus, either refusing to enforce social-distancing measures or even overruling local officials who attempt to do so. A new study finds that the single factor that best explains the speed of state-level reaction is its governor’s partisan identity. “States with Republican governors and Republican electorates delayed each social distancing measure by an average of 2.70 days,” the authors find, “a far larger effect than any other factor, including state income per capita, the percentage of neighboring states with mandates, or even confirmed cases in state.”




    The Captain [Kolesnikov] of the USS Theodore Roosevelt sends a desperate letter. [They followed through]
    https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/...h-15167883.php

    This is quasi-mutiny, isn't it? Cool. Shaka posted a video about the story just above btw.



    Early social distancing is having an effect in Seattle.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/u...sion-rate.html


    Evidence on economic outcomes of pandemic shutdowns. It turns out plague isn't a great synergy for the economy.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...he-economy-too


    The Danish Employment Minister has a recommendation for America: Nationalize payrolls like the rest are doing.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...uld-us/608533/

    Larsen: I have to say that the decision-making process in Denmark has been very extraordinary. We have 10 parties in Parliament. From the very left-wing to the really, really right-wing. And they all agree. There is nearly 100 percent consensus about this. And that’s really amazing. People are convinced that it’s wise to do this now.

    Many of these policies are made as tripartite agreements between unions, employers’ associations, and the state. That’s because, in Denmark, most labor-market regulation is done by the unions and the employers’ associations. They regulate the labor market mainly through their own collective agreements. To make all this possible, you need the unions and employers’ associations to be a part of these agreements. That is very difficult. But they succeeded rapidly. In a matter of days, this was a signed agreement.


    Elizabeth Warren: "Trump told states they were on their own to purchase medical equipment, so that’s what MA tried to do. But then the federal government outbid MA at least 3 times – and reports show two of our orders were seized by federal authorities. This is unacceptable"
    https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status...04104713342977


    Since some of us are interested in the ground-level view of things, here's a series of personal accounts of our times. The first one I read was the story of a Bay Area grocery store's management.
    https://slate.com/tag/coronavirus-diaries

    Interesting bit about supply chains:

    There’s been a supply chain crunch. It’s been hard. I don’t want to say impossible. I hate to say impossible. We’ve been ordering paper products and having such a hard time—we can’t get anything. We work with a main grocery supplier that used to be a co-op called Unified Grocers. They were bought by SuperValu, and then by UNFI … everything is kind of merging together in the grocery industry right now, which means we only have one main company to go to. They literally told us, “That order you put in? It got canceled.” They don’t have room on their trucks and don’t have enough drivers. I heard that they recently hired 200 new truck drivers, so hopefully we can get the supply chain crunch worked out soon.

    Our stores haven’t gotten a frozen load in two stores in two and a half weeks. If I could get some frozen in, I would be super happy. And I haven’t seen toilet paper in a while. We’re contacting one of the vendors that services our commercial kitchen about individually wrapped toilet paper. This isn’t about making money, it’s about trying to get people what they need. We’re going through every avenue possible to find food. Our grocery buyer has reached out to restaurant supply companies that usually supply much larger commercial-sized packaging with the hope that they may have smaller can sizes. Maybe we’ll get lucky.

    Produce has been great. The produce supply chain has really held up well. The people who usually sell to restaurants are now able to sell some of that product to us, so at least it’s not going to waste.

    One funny thing: There was a run on chicken. Apparently, Californians are in love with chicken. For one week, my husband and I laughed that there was no chicken anywhere in the Bay Area. That’s been cleared up. Our butchers have been working around the clock to get things cleared up.

    We have finally seen the stores quiet down a little. Crowds have died off and we’ve seen far less people coming through the door. It seems people are spending more and purchasing for longer amounts of time. It used to be people would come in daily and pick up whatever they wanted for dinner. We still see a good number of people in the morning during the senior hour, from 7 a.m. to 8 a.m. That’s when people think the new product is there. But if they can, they might consider coming in the afternoon because it’s actually less busy.
    Recommended also from the series: Everyday Life in Six Other Countries (What life is like this week in the Netherlands, Liberia, Costa Rica, Afghanistan, Ireland, and New Zealand.)
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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