Coronavirus / COVID-19

[Greyblades]

UK bungled the response, Italy didn't.

I agree for the most part, but I think it is amusing to highlight the exceptions of milan and florence whose intial reaction to the virus was to encourage people to hug chinamen.

[Montmorency]

I have been tricked, been misled and, quite possibly, bamboozled!

Sole correct statement.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Damn! Even the goats are protesting:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...san-jose-video

[Montmorency]

Aztec philosophy on how to handle disease outbreaks.
https://www.zocalopublicsquare.org/2...rdTWp2VIqL5FtY

The Aztecs were no strangers to plagues. Among the speeches recorded in their rhetoric and moral philosophy, we find a warning to new kings concerning their divinely ordained role in the event of contagion:

Sickness will arrive during your time. How will it be when the city becomes, is made, a place of desolation? Just how will it be when everything lies in darkness, despair? You will also go rushing to your death right then and there. In an instant, you will be over.

Facing a plague, it was vital that the king respond with grace. They warned:

Do not be a fool. Do not rush your words, do not interrupt or confuse people. Instead find, grasp, arrive at the truth. Make no one weep. Cause no sadness. Injure no one. Do not show rage or frighten folks. Do not create a scandal or speak with vanity. Do not ridicule. For vain words and mockery are no longer your office. Never, of your own will, make yourself less, diminished. Bring no scorn upon the nation, its leadership, the government.

Retract your teeth and claws. Gladden your people. Unite them, humor them, please them. Make your nation happy. Help each find their proper place. That way you’ll be esteemed, renowned. And when our Lord extinguishes you, the old ones will weep and sigh.

If a king did not follow this advice, if his rule caused more suffering than it abated, then the people prayed to Tezcatlipoca for any number of consequences, including his death:

May he be made an example of. Let him receive some reprimand, whatever you choose. Perhaps punishment. Disease. Perhaps you’ll let your honor and glory fall to another of your friends, those who weep in sorrow now. For they do exist. They live. You have no want of friends. They are sighing before you, humble. Choose one of them.

Perhaps he [the bad ruler] will experience what the common folk do: suffering, anguish, lack of food and clothing. And perhaps you will give him the greatest punishments: paralysis, blindness, rotting infection.

Or will he instead soon depart this world? Will you bring about his death? Will he get to know our future home, the place with no exits, no smoke holes? Maybe he will meet the Lord of Death, Mictlanteuctli, mother and father of us all.

Only an Ancient Alien or time traveler could have written this.

[Hooahguy]

FBI serves warrant on Senator Burr (R-NC) in investigation of stock sales linked to coronavirus.

If they take down Loeffler too I will be very happy.

[Furunculus]

Obesity?

We're pretty tubby by all accounts...

apparently i was on the money:
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...d?guccounter=1

[Viking]

It should be difficult to dispute that societies have existed in forms that could be described as relatively anarchic. But the measures endorsed by the Swedish government and people also exist and are being put into practice. Another term for what's happening in Sweden is voluntarism, but of course voluntarism is a core component of anarchism. If your complaint is truly that you oppose the use of the label "anarchism" within any existing hierarchical framework, then that just strikes me as a frivolous foofaraw, maybe even a Catch-22. Would you say that there is only anarchism in a black bloc screaming "**** the state, the state is over?"

[...]

These are all fine questions as far as they go, but not strictly relevant to a debate over the validity of calling a phenomenon anarchic. Maybe you would be appeased by the formulation that the Swedish strategy is a trial in anarchist values.

Suburb dwellers Anne and Frank believe in the value of having tidy lawns. If we use a hot new element from contemporary American political philosophy, namely alternative facts, we know that the value of having a tidy lawn is of course also an important aspect of Stalinism.

If we discover that the lawn value of Anne and Frank in practice makes life much better in the suburbs, this is of course not a validation of Stalinism, because Stalinism is so much more than this one value. It might be technically correct to say that the value is Stalinist, but there is more to it than that.

If we return to anarchism, anarchism is likewise much more than voluntarism. Removing the state from the equation is potentially a huge deal as far as outcomes are concerned. So even if the original statement is adjusted to say that we have a test of anarchist values in Sweden, that revised statement would seem to be more about rhetoric (you have an experiment that might be technically correct to associate with anarchism and which can have promising or disappointing results) than something of practical value (the experiment might not teach us much at all about what ideological anarchism would be like in practice).

[Furunculus]

very interesting article on the climatic/physiological effect on transmission and mortality:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...g-coronavirus/

The University of Maryland found that most cases fall along a narrow east-west corridor of 30 and 50 degrees of latitude, which includes northern Italy, the Pacific Northwest, Japan, Iran, South Korea, France, Spain and Germany. All share similar climatic conditions.
...
Weather records in the hardest hit countries had similar average temperatures of between 5°C and 11°C and humidity of 47 to 79 per cent, which is close to laboratory conditions in which coronavirus thrives.
...
Researchers from the Anglia Ruskin University compared the numbers of coronavirus cases to the average levels of vitamin D for 20 European countries and found a significant correlation.

Italy and Spain have both experienced high mortality rates, and scientists found both countries have lower than average vitamin D levels.

This is partly because people in southern Europe, particularly the elderly, avoid strong sun, while their darker skin pigmentation also reduces the body's ability to produce natural vitamin D.
...
Dr Lee Smith, Reader in Physical Activity and Public Health at Anglia Ruskin University, said: “Vitamin D has been shown to protect against acute respiratory infections, and older adults, the group most deficient in vitamin D, are also the ones most seriously affected by Covid-19.

“A previous study found that 75 per cent of people in institutions, such as hospitals and care homes, were severely deficient in vitamin D.”

[Viking]

Wow, only one new covid-19 case confirmed during the last week in the city where I live (> 280 000 inhabitants). 4 March there were 15 confirmed cases in the city in total, compared to 222 people in all of Spain and 86 in all of the UK, according to the Johns Hopkins resource. It did not have to turn out this way; a bullet was probably dodged.

[Montmorency]

[Hooahguy]

Trump says that he is taking hydroxychloroquine.

Just... wow. There is so much to unpack here. Does he have the virus and taking a risky drug to treat it? Or is he taking a risky drug as a preventative measure? Or is he lying and trying to get others to take it? Who knows. What we do know is its criminal for the VA to keep using the drug despite it having a nearly 30% fatality rate.

The stupidity, it hurts.

[CrossLOPER]

Trump says that he is taking hydroxychloroquine.

Just... wow. There is so much to unpack here. Does he have the virus and taking a risky drug to treat it? Or is he taking a risky drug as a preventative measure? Or is he lying and trying to get others to take it? Who knows. What we do know is its criminal for the VA to keep using the drug despite it having a nearly 30% fatality rate.

The stupidity, it hurts.

He is either trying to distract people (which works because the media seems incapable of ignoring him for a day), or he is really in deep in terms of believing his own BS.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

He is either trying to distract people (which works because the media seems incapable of ignoring him for a day), or he is really in deep in terms of believing his own BS.

You used the word "or." But those goals are not at all incommensurate.

C. Cuomo is advancing the theory that this is a) a distraction to keep the focus off a comparative lack of effort towards testing and tracing, and b) part of a political move to paint himself as "tough and moving forward" while implicitly labeling the Dems as a party of "no" and "We can't."

If the economy remains half-closed then Trump's chances of re-election are diminished. His "I freed the economy to grow" theme has been one of his better selling points outside his cadre of "deplorables." So, ask yourself, is Trump willing to accept 50k more casualties (skewed towards urban area losses) to enhance his chances of re-election when all of the authorities are asserting that a vaccine will not be available before the election and very likely not before the end of his term in office.

There is enough of a sense among various leadership cadres around the world that, having slowed things to enhance our health infrastructure as much as practicable so they are not overwhelmed, it is time to accept the casualties and move on. Trump cannot say that in public any more than could any other Western leader. But do I think he's willing to move on under those conditions? Yup.

[CrossLOPER]

There is enough of a sense among various leadership cadres around the world that, having slowed things to enhance our health infrastructure as much as practicable so they are not overwhelmed, it is time to accept the casualties and move on. Trump cannot say that in public any more than could any other Western leader. But do I think he's willing to move on under those conditions? Yup.

It's not that simple. If enough people start being careless, then we will be back to where we were and the situation will be even worse for those seeking reelection. The economy will continue to suffer if there is not enough confidence that going out to eat or getting your hair cut is potentially lethal or will result in a five digit medical bill.

If there is a combination of economic relief to counter the weak opening? Sure. Is that going to involve relying on the state to continue to give you unemployment on top of whatever check the IRS sends? These are questions that need to be weighed and I don't have confidence the current administration or federal government in general is going to be capable dealing with that. The state governments are limited in what they do and are strained, in addition to the Navy Seal rejects that keep showing up at their door asking them when they will open Apple Bee's

[ReluctantSamurai]

There is enough of a sense among various leadership cadres around the world that, having slowed things to enhance our health infrastructure as much as practicable so they are not overwhelmed, it is time to accept the casualties and move on.

Unfortunately, we have indeed come to that. The US wasted valuable time in February & March denying that this could be a serious problem. Our leaders, and many of those around the world, took a wait-and-see approach at the beginning. However, some leaders took immediate, and strong actions once the full scope of this pandemic became apparent. The virus was already running rampant in world populations, so there was no chance at "containment". The only tool available was the sledgehammer approach of social distancing (whether that be mandatory or voluntary). Social distancing works, but you cannot keep an entire nation of any size, let alone that of the US with 330 million people, locked down indefinitely. But social distancing bought some time, time which was wasted here in the US (ie. the latter part of March and the entire month of April). Those failings are well documented and publicized, so no need to rehash all of that.

So, ask yourself, is Trump willing to accept 50k more casualties (skewed towards urban area losses) to enhance his chances of re-election when all of the authorities are asserting that a vaccine will not be available before the election and very likely not before the end of his term in office.

Trump is willing to sacrifice whatever it takes to get re-elected. Let noone mistake that this man has a single ounce of empathy in his body, and that retaining his hold on the presidency for 4 more years is the ONLY issue at hand. And it's a mistake, IMHO, to assume that all the coming deaths here in the States will occur in the cities. I have been following the progress of this pandemic out into the rural areas ever since its' spread began to slow in the cities. There are areas in rural America that are already getting overwhelmed by the number of new cases, and there is no abatement in sight. It's progressing slower because of population densities being lower than urban areas, but it's progressing nonetheless. And that scares our Fearless Leader, which is why he's trying to discredit the current methods for tabulating cases and deaths saying that they are too high, when in fact, they are too low by just about any epidemiological form of measurement.

Going to be interesting to see what happens here in my home state of Michigan on Thursday. Trump is scheduled to tour some auto factories and Ford has gone on record saying NOONE is allowed in a plant without wearing a mask, and they have requested the President to do so. We shall see...

[ReluctantSamurai]

For all you State-Siders, I found this neat little tool to check on how well your state is doing with the pandemic response:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...ur-state-doing

For all the shit Big Gretch has taken about lock-down policy, Michigan is one of the few states showing the number of new cases being significantly less than 10% of the total number of tests done (a number higher than 10% means there are still a lot of undetected cases; a number of 20% or higher means that there are A LOT of undetected cases). Still, the amount of testing is much less than it should be as it is in most places here.

And then there's this:

https://covid19-projections.com/about/

And individual states:

https://covid19-projections.com/infections-tracker/

However, it's hard to tell if the above data is being muddied by the recent trend of the CDC to combine the viral tests for COVID-19 with the anti-body tests, which throws a lot of doubt on testing trends and results:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...-texas/611935/

Because antibody tests are meant to be used on the general population, not just symptomatic people, they will, in most cases, have a lower percent-positive rate than viral tests. So blending viral and antibody tests “will drive down your positive rate in a very dramatic way,”

The intermingling of viral and antibody tests suggests that some of those gains might be illusory. If even a third of the country’s gain in testing has come by expanding antibody tests, not viral tests, then its ability to detect an outbreak is much smaller than it seems.

The chart in the very first link begs the question (again) of why we still use the IHME model when it is consistently the most inconsistent model being used.....

[Montmorency]

Industry data on commercial foot traffic in the states. Check it out.
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/...-19-2020&i=all

For everyone: Epidemiologist writes on the relative individual risks of various activities with regard to COVID, with focus on respiratory exposure.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them

if you don't solve the biology, the economy won't recover.

Remember the formula: Successful Infection = Exposure to Virus [dose] x Time

Basically, as the work closures are loosened, and we start to venture out more, possibly even resuming in-office activities, you need to look at your environment and make judgments. How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment. If you are in an open floorplan office, you really need to critically assess the risk (volume, people, and airflow). If you are in a job that requires face-to-face talking or even worse, yelling, you need to assess the risk. If you are sitting in a well ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.

California is likely to overtake New York in cumulative testing by the end of the month. Since the beginning of May their test counts have been turbocharged. On the other hand, the proportion of positives to tests conducted is now well below 10% in New York. At the height of the April surge it was approaching 50%, and beyond 50% in the city, which is probably more important than any virtual pissing match.

If anyone is interested, here is the New York relaxation schedule that I've mentioned from time to time. Upstate New York (but not the city or Long Island) is basically all in Phase I now.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...explained.html

Two articles on Cuomo and de Blasio's mismanagement of the New York epidemic. They're too long for me to commit to reading in full, but the root of it is that the longstanding rivalry and backbiting between the governor and the mayor had significant repercussions on policy and coordination. Lot of bad moves and missed shots in February and early March. Thousands of avoidable, or minimally deferrable, deaths. Government action matters.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...-yorks-did-not
https://www.propublica.org/article/t...-as-california



Now POTUS Trump. [VIDEO]

"I tested very positively in another sense so— this morning. Yeah. I tested positively toward negative, right. So. I tested perfectly this morning. Meaning I tested negative."

But who's on first?



On the the meat.

How many licks does it take to get to the ruin of a nation? Let's find out. - von Wallenstein

Terminal stupidity amuse-bouche. [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/OnlyInLVNV/statu...35074516692992

According to the 2019 Global Health Security Index, the US and UK were the most prepared countries in the world for a pandemic. Like I've been saying, everyone understood this in and before January 2020.

On the government ripping off the people.

More than 40,000 National Guard members currently helping states test residents for the coronavirus and trace the spread of infections will face a “hard stop” on their deployments on June 24 — just one day shy of many members becoming eligible for key federal benefits, according to a senior FEMA official. The official outlined the Trump administration’s plans on an interagency call on May 12, an audio version of which was obtained by POLITICO. The official also acknowledged during the call that the June 24 deadline means that thousands of members who first deployed in late March will find themselves with only 89 days of duty credit, one short of the 90-day threshold for qualifying for early retirement and education benefits under the Post-9/11 GI bill. The looming loss of crucial frontline workers, along with questions about whether the administration is shortchanging first responders, would require a delicate messaging strategy, the official — representing FEMA’s New England region — told dozens of colleagues on the interagency call.

Since early March, over 36 million Americans have filed for unemployment [Ed. Our workforce prior to the pandemic was ~165 million, with as few as 5 million unemployed] due to the coronavirus crisis, marking the biggest spike in unemployment in U.S. history.

In response to these claims, states have paid a record $48 billion in unemployment benefits to people out of work but several recent studies have found that this total could have been much higher. According to an analysis by One Fair Wage, a nonprofit organization that advocates for restaurant workers, only 56% of those who have applied for unemployment insurance are receiving benefits, meaning about 44% have been denied or are still waiting.

One of the primary motivators of Republican states to relax pandemic measures has been the desire to kick people off UI or avoid paying it out in the first place. Naturally, to the questionable extent Trump and the Republicans are willing to legislate any more relief, they demand cessation of UI expansion, coupled with liability protection for businesses. And when we signed that act we thought the hundreds of billions in tax breaks and hundreds of billions more in bailouts and subsidies would actually purchase something for the commoners. I would have preferred to avoid a depression, but if y'all insist...


...Trump threatened to impound federal money from Michigan if it expands mail voting, which is similar to a scenario floated during the impeachment investigation as a potential future instance of naked political corruption, and would mirror the illegal impoundment he directed with regard to Ukraine. What makes it especially pathetic is that the Congressionally-authorized disaster aid to Michigan (from the CARES Act) has already been disbursed; Trump gets even more incompetent as his despotic tantrums intensify.

Meanwhile in Michigan, "armed anti-government rebels in restive midwestern province force cancellation of upcoming legislative session due to threat of violence." Or that's what the headline should be.
https://twitter.com/AndyMorrison_DN/...95547500068867
https://twitter.com/maxberger/status...25922762903552
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...?sref=Zd9D2evu




Proto-Neo-New Black Panthers respond bravely to the threat.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...htwing-protest




Long Island Republican protest. "Participatory anti-democracy" is a key phrase that captures the conservative approach to civil society. [VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/ZeeshanAleem/sta...60441565990912



In foreign news, Brazil's total caseload has doubled in the past weak, surpassing Russia for second-highest in world, which latter had itself skyrocked to #2 less than 2 weeks ago.

A thorough serology survey in Spain so far finds that only 5% of the population has been infected so far, which if accurate would make Spain's COVID fatality rate especially high. But it is also troubling in that it is one of the strongest pandemic serosurveys conducted to date, so the general implications of its results may be more applicable than those of more sanguine studies. If someone wants to talk about antibodies and true prevalence, that would be great.
https://www.vox.com/2020/5/16/212594...virus-immunity

Also worth commenting on, the frequency of kidney and myocardial injury in COVID patients - long-term damage even in mild cases?

In further foreign news, check out what's going on in Iran (left) and Singapore (right). Tut tut.

[Pannonian]

In case anyone has missed it, the UK PM's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has been found travelling up and down the country to visit relatives. At a time when the country was supposed to be in lockdown, and drivers have been fined for breaking said lockdown under Coronavirus-related legislation. The last time I left this town with a tiny high street was 2 months ago.

Do UK posters think Cummings should go? Or do they agree with the PM, that what Cummings did was admirable?

[Furunculus]

In case anyone has missed it, the UK PM's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has been found travelling up and down the country to visit relatives

This is a thoroughly deceitful way to present the story, and you ought to feel a little ashamed at treating your fellow orgahs' to such a willfully partisan 'truth'.

Facts:
He and his wife were coming down with Covid.
They had a young child.
They're based in Durham, and have no support network in London.
His wife's folks have an entirely separate residence on their (castle) grounds.
A relative was from this location able to offer childcare support while they were convalescing.
There is an exemption to assist vulnerable people (like young children).
The generality above was defined specifically in relation to a situation where both parent are ill.

What you are [choosing] to present to your fellow orgahs':
"been found travelling up and down the country to visit relatives"

Do you have so little respect for us?
There is a perfectly reasonable case to be made that his actions are politically questionable.
And that he must be prepared to face political pressure based on the questionable actions.
We could have a great discussion about the ins and outs of his actions, and what effect that will have on adherence to public policy...
...but that isn't what you did.


[edit]
Just to be clear; i'd have no objection if the quoted line was done so alone, as a witty aside or a scathing joke.
No, my objection is to misreprenting the situation without any source that would permit us to gain nuance from the invective, and in the same breath invite us to condemn him based in [this] reading of events.

This is the very opposite to the maxim: always think the best of people until they demonstrate otherwise.

[rory_20_uk]

As with all the other people from Parliament who have gone against advice, what Cummings did was technically in breach of no law. Drivers who have been fined for breaking lockdown were driving without one of the specific reasons for travel that are outlined in the law. The last one's excuse I recall said he was dropping off medication at his elderly parents. Again, technically allowed... Although one has to ask why his parents suddenly needed medications and as opposed to getting delivery from a Pharmacy they had their son deliver it. Could it be that this was an exemption to explain his actions that was technically legal...?

This reminds me of the scandal a few years back where many people in politics were found to have their money in offshore Foundations / Companies etc. Nothing was illegal - but to put it mildly - unwise.

Given Cummings knew right from the start more than the rest of us and he knows he is less able to isolate from the rest of us he had the means to isolate his child (and wife) and could have done this from the start. Much less well off NHS workers are having to make this call. Being separated from one's family in times of crisis?I believe it is called "public service".

Perhaps Cummings is an idiot? He's incapable of thinking ahead. But he's a senior advisor to the PM. So that one isn't a valid excuse.

Boris calling this "admirable" hardly helps. Acknowledging it was unwise and stating why it was not unlawful would frankly not have helped those who enjoy reading the Guardian who would more readily believe he drove over some orphans in his Limo on the way there.

Again, this is close to human interest noise. Far more important is that the model the government used appears to have been deeply flawed, and of course the PPE has been mismanaged over the course of decades.

Cummings has made few if any friends in the Civil Service. I am sure they'd been falling over themselves to stick the knife in over this - and ensure that we move away from less enjoyable matters.

[ReluctantSamurai]

In further foreign news, check out what's going on in Iran (left) and Singapore (right). Tut tut.

The Iran curve is what's going to be seen Stateside. Most states are still testing far below the levels necessary, and to make matters worse, some are including anti-body tests which are a snapshot of where you've been, not where you are going and leads to the false impression that new cases are on the decline. There are only a handful of states where the incidence of new cases is less than 10% of the tests being done, and the R0 number is climbing again for many states. IMHO, the US is going to be back to something close to the situation we had in April....just look at all the idiots out on beaches with very little social distancing:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-100000-deaths

I highly recommend book-marking this model:

https://covid19-projections.com/about/

Models are just that...predictions with a degree of uncertainty, but some of the predictions in the C19Pro model are uncanny in their accuracy (they were only a -18 deaths for Michigan on 24 May, a bit high for NY, but spot on for the US as a whole).

Then there's this warning:

Our model incorporates the concept of a second lockdown, which we estimate will happen approximately 30 days after the reopening. Additional mitigation strategies are only necessary if the effective reproduction number (R) after reopening is significantly greater than 1.

In reality, the US went from a roiling boil in April, to a slow simmer in May, with downturns in some areas offset by outbreaks in others (mainly rural areas, prisons, food processing plants, elderly care facilities, and Indian Reservations). The C19Pro model is predicting over 178,000 deaths by 4 Aug....god I hope they're wrong on that one

Terminal stupidity amuse-bouche.

Fortunately that incident wasn't as terminal as the recent one in Flint, MI where a store owner refused a woman entry for no mask, and was shot dead a little later by the husband and son:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/u...-Michigan.html

Cummings has made few if any friends in the Civil Service. I am sure they'd been falling over themselves to stick the knife in over this - and ensure that we move away from less enjoyable matters.

And there's the crux of the matter, IMHO....click-bait news media looking for something new to capture attention. If he violated rules, then fire his ass, or pay the fines...hell, double the fine for being a government official. It's not like there haven't been any of the UK's rich and famous that haven't done something similar Just get on with it, and prepare for another wave of cases as the lock-down eases.......

[CrossLOPER]

Models are just that...predictions with a degree of uncertainty, but some of the predictions in the C19Pro model are uncanny in their accuracy (they were only a -18 deaths for Michigan on 24 May, a bit high for NY, but spot on for the US as a whole).

So >250k deaths before the end of the year?

[Pannonian]

According to Cummings, on 12th April, which happened to be his wife's birthday, he felt unsure if he was well enough to drive back down to London, so he, his wife and child, drove to a local beauty spot, 30 miles in 30 minutes (averaging 60mph), spending some time there before driving back. On that same day, his wife retweeted the PM's message urging people to stay at home.

And Furunculus accuses me of being deceitful.

FWIW, the head of police has urged people not to do what Cummings did. If you think you have problems with eyesight, do not drive. With the PM excusing what Cummings did, what authority does the government have left in telling people to do this and that for the good of the nation?

[ReluctantSamurai]

So >250k deaths before the end of the year?

The C19Pro model (and most other models) only makes predictions 3 months ahead. I am not qualified to presume your statement to be true or not. The fact that they have shown to be one of the top three models in accuracy, lends credibility to their forecasts. Personally, after watching the sheer lunacy of crowded beaches this weekend, and many churches clamoring for in-church services to resume (with some going ahead with or without government approval), and....(just can't resist) Donald Trump threatening to move the Republican Convention out of North Carolina (which still has a ban on such large gatherings) so that 50,000 supporters can kiss his ass, the death toll is going to steadily climb. We went from the first COVID-19 death in early February to 100,000 deaths by the third week of May---three and a half months. The end of December is seven months out. Utter lunacy to try and predict that far out with so many variables to consider.

With the PM excusing what Cummings did, what authority does the government have left in telling people to do this and that for the good of the nation?

Remove him from office then, and get on with it, already....

[Montmorency]

Fun fact: The vast majority of US governors currently hold approval ratings of over 60%.

very interesting article on the climatic/physiological effect on transmission and mortality:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...g-coronavirus/

Usually with this type of analysis the flaw is in overlaying a correlation with population density, but here I must congratulate the authors on having (re)discovered the concept of the Global North.

Anyway, does the 'summer weather' hypothesis itself account for what's been going on in South America or the Middle East for many weeks now? Probably not very well. Here is the cutting-edge on lack of effect of seasonality and local climate on SARS-CoV-2.
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/...id-19-pandemic

I mean, it stands to reason as virtually all (i.e. approaching all) transmission takes place in enclosed or indoor spaces, which tend to be climate-controlled. No one's going around coughing on random rocks or walls or pavement outdoors that people then lick.

Facts:
He and his wife were coming down with Covid.
They had a young child.
They're based in Durham, and have no support network in London.
His wife's folks have an entirely separate residence on their (castle) grounds.
A relative was from this location able to offer childcare support while they were convalescing.

Does any of that matter?

There is an exemption to assist vulnerable people (like young children).
The generality above was defined specifically in relation to a situation where both parent are ill.

To judge whether there can be a justifiable invocation of codified exemption I would have to see the primary text.

Here is the text of The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 with respect to restrictions on movement.

There are 13 categories of exemption, or "reasonable excuse." The one that potentially applies is

(d)to provide care or assistance, including relevant personal care within the meaning of paragraph 7(3B) of Schedule 4 to the Safeguarding of Vulnerable Groups Act 2006(1), to a vulnerable person, or to provide emergency assistance;

There is no claim that emergency medical action motivated the travel. The alternative is personal care for a vulnerable person as specified in another act.

(3B)Relevant personal care means—

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

(a)physical assistance, given to a person who is in need of it by reason of age, illness or disability, in connection with—

(i)eating or drinking (including the administration of parenteral nutrition),

(ii)toileting (including in relation to the process of menstruation),

(iii)washing or bathing,

(iv)dressing,

(v)oral care, or

(vi)the care of skin, hair or nails,

(b)the prompting, together with supervision, of a person who is in need of it by reason of age, illness or disability in relation to the performance of any of the activities listed in paragraph (a) where the person is unable to make a decision in relation to performing such an activity without such prompting and supervision, or

(c)any form of training, instruction, advice or guidance which—

(i)relates to the performance of any of the activities listed in paragraph (a),

(ii)is given to a person who is in need of it by reason of age, illness or disability, and

(iii)does not fall within paragraph (b).

From what I'm reading about Cummings' situation retroactively invoking the vulnerable person care exemption for his actions would be abusive.

I wonder if the UK government isn't needlessly inflating a PR disaster.

This is the very opposite to the maxim: always think the best of people until they demonstrate otherwise.

That's an extreme, but unfortunately not unique, grade of lenience to demand. Pannonian has no shortage of cause to think less than the best of Cummings. Along the road to improving the world comes dispensing with unlimited benefit of the doubt for conservative (white) men.

Suburb dwellers Anne and Frank believe in the value of having tidy lawns. If we use a hot new element from contemporary American political philosophy, namely alternative facts, we know that the value of having a tidy lawn is of course also an important aspect of Stalinism.

If we discover that the lawn value of Anne and Frank in practice makes life much better in the suburbs, this is of course not a validation of Stalinism, because Stalinism is so much more than this one value. It might be technically correct to say that the value is Stalinist, but there is more to it than that.

If we return to anarchism, anarchism is likewise much more than voluntarism.

The obvious problem with the analogy is that the voluntarism is an essential component and is universally recognized as such. Tidy lawns is not a particularly significant or meaningful component of Stalinism (leaving aside the conflation of scope, the difference between a mass movement of tidy lawns and a single family's preferences). Now, if Sweden looked like a one-party state in which the leadership emphasized heavy industry and violent suppression of political dissent, centralized consolidation of social control and intervention, it would be fairer and more insightful to say it was adopting Stalinist practices and values.

Removing the state from the equation is potentially a huge deal as far as outcomes are concerned. So even if the original statement is adjusted to say that we have a test of anarchist values in Sweden, that revised statement would seem to be more about rhetoric (you have an experiment that might be technically correct to associate with anarchism and which can have promising or disappointing results) than something of practical value (the experiment might not teach us much at all about what ideological anarchism would be like in practice).

I don't understand your distinction, but it sounds like splitting hairs. The political and economic behavior of groups has in any context potential implications for political philosophies in general, unless the stance is one of pure thought. How Swedish people behave in this event is just one more qualitative case.

Unrelatedly, I just watched the Norwegian show Beforeigners, and I notice that every Norwegian show I've ever watched has evidenced a preoccupation with outsiders changing Norwegian culture. Which reminded me of you. Is this a general tendency with Norwegians that I should understand?

Wow, only one new covid-19 case confirmed during the last week in the city where I live (> 280 000 inhabitants). 4 March there were 15 confirmed cases in the city in total, compared to 222 people in all of Spain and 86 in all of the UK, according to the Johns Hopkins resource. It did not have to turn out this way; a bullet was probably dodged.

The point is, where the disease is suppressed, lives are saved, period. Reduce transmission and you can sustain that permanent containment with a relatively-light touch, alongside testing and tracing infrastructure for any localized flareups (like the one South Korea dealt with in workmanlike fashion this month).

Countries that can't or won't do this will suffer the worst and will be judged.

As an aside, Sweden has over the past week or two has achieved the highest per-capita COVID death rate in at least Europe (sometimes tied with UK). Higher than Spain or Italy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...ate-per-capita

Also, despite claiming to be ramping up testing from late April their testing growth has been linear. And the first preliminary results from antibody survey probably dramatically overstated the prevalence to-date of COVID among Swedes.

And this here is good for a chuckle.

Trump says that he is taking hydroxychloroquine.

Just... wow. There is so much to unpack here. Does he have the virus and taking a risky drug to treat it? Or is he taking a risky drug as a preventative measure? Or is he lying and trying to get others to take it? Who knows. What we do know is its criminal for the VA to keep using the drug despite it having a nearly 30% fatality rate.

The stupidity, it hurts.

Lysenkoism, next on the checklist of the USA following in the footsteps of the USSR. I'm not sure whether I want to think he's lying this time.

Speaking of which:

Designer of Florida's COVID dashboard (pretty much every state has one of these interfaces by now) was ousted for refusing to restrict data to make the government look better and grease the push to reopen.
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/n...te/5212398002/
https://www.tampabay.com/news/health...ning-she-says/

The CDC and other states may be on a similar book-cooking page, as Samurai reported (antibody test in testing aggregates).

He is either trying to distract people (which works because the media seems incapable of ignoring him for a day), or he is really in deep in terms of believing his own BS.

It's typically safe to rule out anything that requires planning or foresight, so the latter. Remember that this is the "germaphobe" who has no problem doing pornstars unprotected and shaking hands during a pandemic.

https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-...d-371e24b679ed

...an unnamed administration official is reported to have told the paper that trying to advise the president is like “bringing fruits to the volcano... You’re trying to appease a great force that’s impervious to reason.”

https://twitter.com/WindsorMann/stat...42025641070599

Trump is crazy enough to take an unproven drug, dumb enough to say so, and dishonest enough to lie about it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/21/u...ief-trump.html

Mr. Trump, who has mounted a yearslong attack on the intelligence agencies, is particularly difficult to brief on critical national security matters, according to interviews with 10 current and former intelligence officials familiar with his intelligence briefings.
The president veers off on tangents and getting him back on topic is difficult, they said. He has a short attention span and rarely, if ever, reads intelligence reports, relying instead on conservative media and his friends for information. He is unashamed to interrupt intelligence officers and riff based on tips or gossip he hears from the former casino magnate Steve Wynn, the retired golfer Gary Player or Christopher Ruddy, the conservative media executive.
Trump rarely absorbs information that he disagrees with or that runs counter to his worldview. Briefing him has been so great a challenge that the intelligence agencies have hired outside consultants to study how better to present information to him.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/7/2120988...on-catastrophe

But there’s a third aspect to him that I find is almost the key to everything. So far, we’ve been talking about Trump as if he cares about risk and he wants to manage it well. I don’t think that’s true. I think that his whole life is about doing whatever his impulses tell him to do. And then, after the fact, telling a story that renders him the hero of the story — the person who saved the day. He’s always done this, no matter the facts. I actually think he moves through life thinking, whatever happens, I can undo it with a story. That’s why he’s so numb to [experts]. He has no use for them. So I don’t actually think he’s thinking in terms of risk.

And a hundred more excerpts like them over the years.

There is enough of a sense among various leadership cadres around the world that, having slowed things to enhance our health infrastructure as much as practicable so they are not overwhelmed, it is time to accept the casualties and move on. Trump cannot say that in public any more than could any other Western leader. But do I think he's willing to move on under those conditions? Yup.

How do you justify saying that? According to most Western leaders and public health experts in theory and practice, your premise is rejected outside those cases of total failure. In practice any death is very likely unnecessary and avoidable. That is why the general consensus is aiming at suppression and containment, and for Europe's part few countries are really failing. The whole point is that most governments refuse to "accept the casualties and move on." Anyone in power who immanentizes the worst case by reference to the mere potential of a worst case is a fifth columnist to the species at best.

This seems up your alley, by the way.
https://onethingyoucando.com/2020/05...p-this-fall-2/

Also, of historical interest (Palin).
https://twitter.com/DavidNeiwert/sta...71502536822784

Remove him from office then, and get on with it, already....

Pannonian doesn't have that power. He's not Cummings' boss, and from what I gather while many (most?) Conservatives dislike Cummings personally they appreciate his willingness to move fast and break things in their service.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Per the Tampa Bay Times link:

They changed it to the number of new cases per day over the number of negative tests per day [...] None of the methodology that I was being asked to apply, which really wasn’t based on statistically sound methodology at all, was not science. They were asking me to manually go in and basically type yes or no, this county needs it, with any real risk assessment as to whether or not that county should. There may be plenty of rural counties that were perfectly safe to reopen that we would never know because the numbers were manipulated.

You can lay odds that other states are doing this or something similar, but the most common way to avoid scrutiny is to include anti-body tests along with the viral tests.

Pannonian doesn't have that power. He's not Cummings' boss

Of course I wasn't referring to him personally, but I wonder if he wishes he had that kind of power to wield?

I mean, it stands to reason as virtually all (i.e. approaching all) transmission takes place in enclosed or indoor spaces, which tend to be climate-controlled.

And here's a perfect case to confirm that:

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/24/212686...virus-lockdown

The outbreak highlights the risks that accompany easing lockdowns even in countries that have managed to control the spread of the virus relatively well. And it also serves as a reminder of the acute threat posed by “superspreader” events involving crowds, a pressing concern in the US as President Donald Trump encourages churches nationwide to reopen their doors to worshippers.

What the eff have people been doing with all the free time on their hands the last few weeks??? A brief internet search of maybe 5 or 10 minutes would tell you that churches have the distinct possibility to be "super-spreader" events. What I found in just under five minutes:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...o-avoid-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/hous...otspots-2020-5

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavi...shington-state

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...25629482708993

Just expand the discussion on the twitter link---holy hell people are fucking stupid

Research has found time and again that the risk of coronavirus transmission is much higher indoors, in poorly ventilated spaces where lots of people have sustained contact. That's because it primarily spreads via droplets that fly through the air when an infected person coughs, sings, talks, or sneezes.

Let's see....poorly ventilated---yep, most churches fit that category; sustained contact---yep, most churches fit this category; singing---yep, most definitely this category. Pray from home for now people.....

[CrossLOPER]

What the eff have people been doing with all the free time on their hands the last few weeks???

Most "normal" people I know go out and hang with friends in all their free time. They don't seem to have any real hobbies except watching sports and sharing a beer. I know that sounds like an exaggeration, but think of how many people you know have anything to talk about with regards to what they did in their free time. I can't imagine that such a person is capable of settling down and doing something like wood-working, learning a language, or even reading a book or self-reflecting.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Most "normal" people I know go out and hang with friends in all their free time. They don't seem to have any real hobbies except watching sports and sharing a beer.

Methinks we share an entirely different generation Still not an excuse. There's a raging pandemic ongoing, and thousands of people are dying because of it. Ya think just a little responsibility (and an hour or two here and there) would be in order to understand why?

[rory_20_uk]

According to Cummings, on 12th April, which happened to be his wife's birthday, he felt unsure if he was well enough to drive back down to London, so he, his wife and child, drove to a local beauty spot, 30 miles in 30 minutes (averaging 60mph), spending some time there before driving back. On that same day, his wife retweeted the PM's message urging people to stay at home.

And Furunculus accuses me of being deceitful.

FWIW, the head of police has urged people not to do what Cummings did. If you think you have problems with eyesight, do not drive. With the PM excusing what Cummings did, what authority does the government have left in telling people to do this and that for the good of the nation?

This seems to be quite an interesting video.

[Pannonian]