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Thread: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

  1. #31
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    You're not wrong about this. With this crisis all of a sudden people realised how important it is to have safety nets to protect those vulnerable.
    Especially, now that many Americans have realised that all working people who rely on a steady income are vulnerable.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

  2. #32
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    I would have thought this is a no brainer - but given massive economic events have happened several times previously (I mean, Detroit not only imploded over a number of decades but then went bankrupt) and within a few years we're back to again discussing the fact the USA has no safety net I'm not convinced that this will be different to another bump in the road.

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  3. #33
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Honestly it should. As an European, and a European who lived in other countries too and has seen almost 30 of them, some things for me related to America are absolutely baffling and incomprehensible.

    I genuinely think it's high time that systemic changes are done otherwise it will only spiral worse.
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  4. #34
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by edyzmedieval View Post
    Honestly it should. As an European, and a European who lived in other countries too and has seen almost 30 of them, some things for me related to America are absolutely baffling and incomprehensible.

    I genuinely think it's high time that systemic changes are done otherwise it will only spiral worse.
    Most of those comparisons in your head are unified states. As in, one national government that wields the large bulk of political power. That does not obtain in the USA (at least yet) despite the efforts of Hamilton, Lincoln, Roosevelt, FDR, and others to shift us away from dispersed (what we label "federalized" power) to that of a stronger Central government. Our national government is our biggest power bloc, but often cannot do X, Y, or Z over the opposition of various state governments.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  5. #35

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Funny saw about real-life events:
    The world is on the cusp of an economic depression.
    International relations are an increasingly-violent maelstrom of great-power posturing.
    A US Republican lawmaker named Hawley takes the Capitol floor to declaim against free trade and the reds...
    What is the year?

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Most of those comparisons in your head are unified states. As in, one national government that wields the large bulk of political power. That does not obtain in the USA (at least yet) despite the efforts of Hamilton, Lincoln, Roosevelt, FDR, and others to shift us away from dispersed (what we label "federalized" power) to that of a stronger Central government. Our national government is our biggest power bloc, but often cannot do X, Y, or Z over the opposition of various state governments.
    Heretofore the United States was as close to unitary union as any federal state has come. Congress could preempt vast bodies of state law if it chose to (as it often has in the past, e.g. regulatory matters). The states have been desperate for the federal government to take the lead in this crisis. That it hasn't this time, choosing instead to undermine the states, is not an element of our federalism but of our descent toward failed state status a la early-90s Russia or Somalia - pick your poison.

    Anyway, on the subject of the thread the bottom line remains that neglecting to borrow trillions at zero interest rates in order to provide relief, sustain government services, prime the economy, or even refinance outstanding debt, during one of the worst downturns
    - in the context of an increasingly-brittle world system - of all time is a world-historical level of fiscal irresponsibility, of Hetty-Greenism, that will reverberate for the remainder of recorded time. One more casual theft from future generations.

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  6. #36
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Excuse my departure from my usual aloofness but what in the f*** are you doing over there?
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  7. #37
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    Excuse my departure from my usual aloofness but what in the f*** are you doing over there?
    Enacting Patrick Henry's vision for governance.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  8. #38
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Excuse my departure from my usual aloofness but what in the f*** are you doing over there?
    Pull up a map of states alignment during the ACW. Look familiar? Not much has changed in 160 years....
    High Plains Drifter

  9. #39
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    Enacting Patrick Henry's vision for governance.
    Looks about a coherent as a map of the HRE during the later years.

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Pull up a map of states alignment during the ACW. Look familiar? Not much has changed in 160 years....
    It's the northern protesters with the Confederate flags that I find amusing.
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  10. #40

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by CrossLOPER View Post
    Looks about a coherent as a map of the HRE during the later years.
    Just so.

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Pull up a map of states alignment during the ACW. Look familiar? Not much has changed in 160 years....
    That's part of it, but the truth is it's so much messier. At least there were just two polities in the ACW-era. Remember, first time as tragedy, second time as farce.


    EDIT: By the way, the answer to the joke in my previous post is 1930/2020. I hope I don't have to explain it.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 05-25-2020 at 01:21.
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  11. #41
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    It's the northern protesters with the Confederate flags that I find amusing.
    It's about rural and non-rural areas. Numbers wise, the urban areas probably sport more guns per capita than the non-urban areas. But it's the intent. In the cities guns are closely related to violent crimes that are primarily race or drug related. In rural areas, it's more like a badge of honor...the proverbial "Don't Tread On Me" mentality. The Michigan Freedom Fund (the group carrying out the protests) is financed primarily through the DeVos family based in Grand Rapids, MI, and the family has very close ties with Trump (Betsy DeVos is Trump's education secretary).

    At least there were just two polities in the ACW-era.
    And there are just two polities now, as I see it

    Conservative, mostly white, Republicans---and liberal Democrats. Oversimplification, I know, but most conflict can be drawn along those lines. Just look at your chart for those who wear masks in public, and those that don't. Pretty much aligned along party lines
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 05-25-2020 at 17:21.
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  12. #42

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    And there are just two polities now, as I see it

    Conservative, mostly white, Republicans---and liberal Democrats. Oversimplification, I know, but most conflict can be drawn along those lines. Just look at your chart for those who wear masks in public, and those that don't. Pretty much aligned along party lines
    Geographically it's more fragmented. The mountain states of the inner West aren't teaming up with the Southern states. The Northeast and mid-Atlantic aren't teaming up with the West Coast. It's like a fractal conflict.
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  13. #43
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    The old saw about the HRE was that it wasn't Holy, wasn't Roman, and wasn't much of an Empire.

    Some days I fear that the USA is down to only the last letter.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  14. #44
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Unfortunately, or fortunately, depends how you look at it, all empires come to an end sooner or later and while the USA is still a good long way to go (that military is still super dominant), it's not looking good.
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  15. #45
    Member Member Tuuvi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    I'm of the opinion that the United States is in terminal decline, from coronavirus to hurricanes, wildfires and botched wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US government just seems totally incapable of solving the various crises that beset it, and now its on the verge of declaring war on its own citizens. As global warming intensifies things are just going to get worse from here on out.

    This is an interesting podcast I listened to the other day that looks at the rise and fall of empires from a Marxist perspective:

    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the...ada/e/69906620

  16. #46

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Apparently the EU has been doing something.
    https://www.dw.com/en/european-commi...lan/a-53584998

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  17. #47
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    As you might know, the market is swinging wildly lately, due to the economic uncertainty, pumping of money by the FED and apparently... Robinhood.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-t-fed-s-fault

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/robi...wild-ride.html

    I'm following markets & econ very closely as usual and I find the whole "blame the Robinhood beginners for the market swings" rather... shortsighted... to put it nicely.
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    A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?

  18. #48

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Hell of a thing to name a financial services company "Robinhood."

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  19. #49

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuuvi View Post
    I'm of the opinion that the United States is in terminal decline, from coronavirus to hurricanes, wildfires and botched wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US government just seems totally incapable of solving the various crises that beset it, and now its on the verge of declaring war on its own citizens. As global warming intensifies things are just going to get worse from here on out.

    This is an interesting podcast I listened to the other day that looks at the rise and fall of empires from a Marxist perspective:

    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the...ada/e/69906620
    There is never a turning point, never a moment of crisis or victory that signals a permanent change in destiny. There are only actors and institutions and at any point they can change; as long as the United States as an entity exists there is the possibility for recovery. Believing otherwise is a trap that accelerationists promote to make you think that nations like phoenixes will only be reborn once they are burned down. But this is real life, not mythology. The only thing that will get burned are poor and colored people.

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  20. #50
    Member Member Tuuvi's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    There is never a turning point, never a moment of crisis or victory that signals a permanent change in destiny. There are only actors and institutions and at any point they can change; as long as the United States as an entity exists there is the possibility for recovery. Believing otherwise is a trap that accelerationists promote to make you think that nations like phoenixes will only be reborn once they are burned down. But this is real life, not mythology. The only thing that will get burned are poor and colored people.
    States break down and collapse all the time, from the Roman Empire, to the Qing dynasty, to the Classic period Maya city states, etc. It's a recurring pattern throughout history. I will concede that it is possible for the United States to turn itself around at this point in time, but I'm still not sure it actually will.

    I vehemently disagree with the notion that the downfall of the United States would only result in the poor and people of color getting burned. The US was built upon the genocide of the indigenous, the enslavement of Africans, and the exploitation of poor immigrants. The US is currently engaged in imperialist ventures that result in the slaughter of poor brown people all over the world. It's been fighting a pointless 19 year war in Afghanistan for god's sake. The collapse of the United States could be really ugly and lead to something worse taking its place, that is true. But if the US were to be overthrown in a working class, POC led rebellion that would be a net benefit for the poor and people of color.

    Either way we have to keep fighting for a better, more just world; I never suggested that the downfall of the United States is guaranteed to be a good thing. It would only be a good thing if people are organized and prepared to build something better to take its place.
    Last edited by Tuuvi; 07-03-2020 at 02:25.

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  21. #51

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuuvi View Post
    The collapse of the United States could be really ugly and lead to something worse taking its place, that is true. But if the US were to be overthrown in a working class, POC led rebellion that would be a net benefit for the poor and people of color.
    But that's not really a thing, you know, nor does anyone seem to have a good notion of how it would become a thing. And revolutions are pretty much always elite or wannabe-elite projects.
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  22. #52

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuuvi View Post
    I vehemently disagree with the notion that the downfall of the United States would only result in the poor and people of color getting burned. The US was built upon the genocide of the indigenous, the enslavement of Africans, and the exploitation of poor immigrants. The US is currently engaged in imperialist ventures that result in the slaughter of poor brown people all over the world. It's been fighting a pointless 19 year war in Afghanistan for god's sake.
    You are suffering from tunnel vision. The presence of these protests signals the desire and the momentum of the United States to continue a slow, a painfully slow, reformation into something more grand than any empire or country has ever achieved. A truly multicultural liberal democracy whose internal divisions rests on beliefs, values, and ideas and not by ethnicity, sex, or wealth. This country is unique in its public chastising over its original sins and the measures it has taken in 4-6 generations from a WASPy agrarian oligarchy to what it is today.

    No country lacks guilt, if you think the US and Europe has a tortured past, read more on Imperial Japan or China for the past 60 years. The downfall of the US as a major entity would allow the Han ethnostate in China to accelerate, leading to the extermination of Tibetans, Uyghurs, Manchu's, and the emerging Taiwanese identity.

    To burn it all down is to reset the clock.

    The collapse of the United States could be really ugly and lead to something worse taking its place, that is true. But if the US were to be overthrown in a working class, POC led rebellion that would be a net benefit for the poor and people of color.

    Either way we have to keep fighting for a better, more just world; I never suggested that the downfall of the United States is guaranteed to be a good thing. It would only be a good thing if people are organized and prepared to build something better to take its place.
    I think what you are suggesting in the second half of this quote is already happening, but you are too blinded by your historical narrative to understand that these types of changes are simultaneously difficult to make in the short term and yet happening at a unprecedented rate historically.

    Where you should direct your energy is engaging within your community and nurturing opportunities for growth and change instead of feeding a fatalistic idea of death as the only means to rebirth.

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  23. #53

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Singapore GDP declined 40+% in the second quarter. What's the appropriate soundtrack?

    From the article, Japan's GDP is expected to have declined 20% in Q2. US Q2 not reported yet?


    The US economy has proved more resilient than expected, in part due to the unemployment insurance expansion, Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. Federal programs supported record increases in personal income in April, through hundreds of billions transferred through unemployment insurance (>100% income replacement up to almost median US income), paycheck protection, and even the up-to-$1200 relief checks. Currently over 32 million Americans are enrolled in UI - 1/5 of the US labor force - though I don't say "collecting," since so many have seen their benefits unaccountably delayed for some period. Half of current enrollees are covered by PUA, which broadens eligibility a great deal and disburses UI enrollees an extra $600 a week, typically more than doubling the usual payout.

    As we have seen, permanent job losses have been accelerating even before the recent surge in cases. According to the Fed, between the beginning of June and mid-July there have been about 10 million new unemployment claims around the country. For the first time in 4 months week-on-week new claims increased last week: 1.4 million compared to 1.3 million from the week before.

    PUA expires in DAYS. Moreover, the patchwork of state and federal eviction protections are all or almost all set to expire by the end of the summer.

    Right now, if we are very lucky the Republicans will acquiesce to renewing PUA at up to 20% of the current level.

    Can the country withstand millions suddenly losing all or most of their income, shortly followed by millions losing their homes?

    How many licks does it take to get to the ruin of a nation? Let's find out! A-one, a-two, a-three....


    Don't have time to do more in depth but some older links of interest.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/21/u...s-poverty.html
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/17/u...rich-poor.html
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/r...york-city.html
    https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...ent-raj-chetty
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/b...ronavirus.html
    Last edited by Montmorency; 07-24-2020 at 01:56.
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  24. #54

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    If the benefits run out under Trump while COVID continues to spike, a 60 Dem Senate becomes possible.


  25. #55
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    If the benefits run out under Trump while COVID continues to spike, a 60 Dem Senate becomes possible.
    Lucky you. Over here, we've got Brexit to come, the no deal version rubbished as a possibility by the Brexiteers here when i raised it. And any coming hardship will be blamed on factors others than the Tory government. There will be some palming off on Covid, but it will mostly be blamed on the EU. How does it look for Trump and any potential efforts in blame shifting?

  26. #56

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    If the benefits run out under Trump while COVID continues to spike, a 60 Dem Senate becomes possible.
    I hope it's not 60 seats. That would mean winning every seat currently defended by Republicans, and defending every seat ourselves - a legendary achievement to be sure, but it would incentivize the Dem caucus to pursue a bare-minimum agenda within the parameters set by the filibuster. Like what happened 2009-10.

    I want them to get 59. There needs to be a break-glass epiphany for more liberals, and being a single vote from overcoming an arbitrary procedural barrier to urgent relief for a cratering society is more conducive to that. A 59-Dem Senate is more prepared in my estimation to pass a transformative, as opposed to briefly stabilizing, agenda - commensurate with the size of the House majority - than a 60-Dem Senate, because of the distortions associated with the threshold effect.

    Thankfully, even Joe Manchin has gone on record saying he won't allow Biden's agenda to be stonewalled.


    Re: education from the other thread, I won't search for cites to support but I recall determining that a majority of the population born since ~1960 has at least some tertiary education. We shouldn't create a dichotomy, there's going to be some spectral shift between a high school and a 4-year degree. How many tens of millions of dropouts and associate's degree holders (whom I only lump together as an intermediate category to the above, not in a normative way)?

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    Lucky you. Over here, we've got Brexit to come, the no deal version rubbished as a possibility by the Brexiteers here when i raised it. And any coming hardship will be blamed on factors others than the Tory government. There will be some palming off on Covid, but it will mostly be blamed on the EU. How does it look for Trump and any potential efforts in blame shifting?
    Mostly they've been trying (not exhaustive):

    1. It doesn't exist/it's a political hoax
    2. It's not that bad
    3. It'll go away on it's own
    4. The Democrats have sabotaged Trump
    5. It's been successfully managed by our heroic god-king

    6. Socialisms!
    7. Riots!

    Given that Trump's polling declines among white senior citizens have been higher than those among voters of color, this genuinely inept and navel-gazing raving is having a self-destructing (as well as other-destructive) effect.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 07-25-2020 at 18:22.
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  27. #57

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I hope it's not 60 seats. That would mean winning every seat currently defended by Republicans, and defending every seat ourselves
    To correct a major and rather silly error, there are something like 35 Senate seats up for reelection this year (including special elections). I was thinking to the exclusion of the 10 (out of 23) Republican-held seats that 270toWin rates as safe.
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  28. #58

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    To correct a major and rather silly error, there are something like 35 Senate seats up for reelection this year (including special elections). I was thinking to the exclusion of the 10 (out of 23) Republican-held seats that 270toWin rates as safe.

    Yeah, I am just saying that the economic and physical distress combo could potentially turn otherwise red states turn light blue for one election cycle.


  29. #59
    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-of-past-roles

    Europe is on path to outpace economic growth, suggesting a faster rebound in the EU.
    Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.

    Proud

    Been to:

    Swords Made of Letters - 1938. The war is looming in France - and Alexandre Reythier does not have much time left to protect his country. A novel set before the war.

    A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?

  30. #60

    Default Re: Economic Shenanigans / Market Crisis

    I was going to make a comment on the article but realized that it isn't 2010 anymore. Don't worry, you don't have to get it.

    Anyway, something I had wanted to post earlier.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 



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