POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Montmorency]

What's the argument for stopping the vote count before the counters are finished? I saw some comments in the video about how "they have a right to see the process". What's that referring to?

The argument is that counting the vote after Election Day (a feature of merely every election in American history) is fraud, unless it's in a state that Trump is not leading in. As a site of ongoing electoral fraud, We the People have a right to interpose* ourselves into the process and - if necessary - halt it.

*Every canvassing site has both Democratic and Republican observers in our elections.

That's it. That's the principle of political philosophy at play: heads we win, tails you lose. Just - don't forget that no country is safe from its fascist element. Doom comes to all nations where complacency and decadent dysfunction obtain.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The damnable question is, whatever strong narrative you could conceive of - does it matter? Does it make a difference? Will the media react? Will the public react? Or is it all baked in at the national level (with local progression and regression here and there)?

It's my humble opinion that it does matter. Having said that, charisma and/or rhetoric alone doesn't get the job done either. Another problem with Democrats are the corporate politicians. They want to see things stay at the status quo (ie. large influxes of corporate money) and are willing to do only the bare minimum to satisfy their constituents. Corporate politicians populate both sides of the aisle, but the GOP delivers what their constituents want---conservative judges, tax breaks for the upper 1% income level, favorable (and often criminal) business breaks to their pals in industry, etc. Dems need to deliver what their supporters want, not just talk.

What's the argument for stopping the vote count before the counters are finished? I saw some comments in the video about how "they have a right to see the process". What's that referring to?

Stopping the vote count is an attempt by the GOP to steal the election by invalidating mail-in ballots, which are likely far more numerous votes for Democrats. It's a total bullshit argument fabricated by CoviDon, who's been pushing the narrative that mail-in ballots are steeped in fraud, even though every single study done on instances of voter fraud show extremely low numbers of fraud.

As far as the "right" to see the process of vote counting:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/u...ans-trump.html

The Republican program, which has gained steam in recent weeks, envisions recruiting up to 50,000 volunteers in 15 key states to monitor polling places and challenge ballots and voters deemed suspicious. That is part of a $20 million plan that also allots millions to challenge lawsuits by Democrats and voting-rights advocates seeking to loosen state restrictions on balloting. The party and its allies also intend to use advertising, the internet and Mr. Trump’s command of the airwaves to cast Democrats as agents of election theft.

The efforts are bolstered by a 2018 federal court ruling that for the first time in nearly four decades allows the national Republican Party to mount campaigns against purported voter fraud without court approval. The court ban on Republican Party voter-fraud operations was imposed in 1982, and then modified in 1986 and again in 1990, each time after courts found instances of Republicans intimidating or working to exclude minority voters in the name of preventing fraud. The party was found to have violated it yet again in 2004.

As for possible explanations, in 2016, pollsters underestimated those with no college degree, but I wonder if ''shy Republicans'' played a role in the present elections. I know quite a few fans of Trump, who have been defending him since 2015 and who genuinely believe that the Democrats are Bolsheviks in disguise that still pretend that they would vote for the Libertarians and not the Republicans. Of course, that's just anecdotal experience.

An interesting take on that:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...lockdown-trump

Voters’ fears about the economic impact of coronavirus lockdowns appear to have helped Donald Trump outperform pollsters’ expectations and brought the US election down to a nail-biting finish.
While ballots are still being counted, that performance probably shows the continued resonance of anti-lockdown rhetoric in an election where, especially for Trump voters, economic health came first.

Both a CNN and a New York Times exit poll showed Trump voters’ main issue was the economy with the coronavirus pandemic in fourth place in the Times survey, behind crime and health policy. Racial inequality beat the coronavirus into second place as the deciding issue for Democratic voters.


Cramer said early data appears to show Trump’s support has actually increased in rural America, and in parts of the south and midwest such as Oklahoma, Mississippi, Arkansas and Iowa.

“Part of it is economics,” she said. “Race is a big element here, but it’s all of that together,” said Cramer. “Standing up for small business and deregulation and white folks has reinforced, for many people, that he is their person.”

[Montmorency]

Hooahguy, one interesting result is that Minnesota - a close state for Clinton and the epicenter of BLM 2020 - has expanded its vote margin for Biden by 10 points (as of now).



Some hypotheses I've heard so far about the results, mutually exclusive or not:

1. Massive influx of new or rare voters turned out to be hard-right.
2. Democrats split tickets (!!!)
3. Many Republicans split tickets (voting against Trump specifically).
4. A lot of people panicked at hearing slogans like "Defund police" or "Pack the Court" on the tee-vee.
5. Democrats looked weak in failing to secure Trump's removal or halt Barrett's confirmation.
6. The correlation of last-quarter GDP growth and presidential election performance for incumbents is actually reflective of some underlying causality, and the unexpectedly-strong recovery off the central bank intervention and stimulus bill led some voters to praise Trump rather than Keynesianism.
7...

About ticket splitting, apparently there is some limited information from South Carolina in the 2010s that it may survive at surprisingly-high levels in some low-level races, on both sides. But for ticket splitting to play a role in this election would be a stark reversal of long-running national trends.



Clearly setting money on fire is not as valuable in political races as it may be in referenda!!




In a Biden landslide, Utah (the Mormon motherland) would have been in play.

[Hooahguy]

Oh wait. Shit. I forgot that if Trump is available to run in 2024 he will be eligible and will therefore absolutely do so. Trump-Biden 2024. What a nightmare world.

You can't "shore up" the Latino vote that way because Cubans and Venezuelans - mostly white petite bourgeois remnants themselves - are as lost a cause as rural Evangelicals. If you want to talk about shoring up the ethnic vote, look to the Puerto Ricans and Guatemalans in our coalition.

I think it also depends what legal issues hes facing. Which also presents another issue, one which my roommate and I have argued for a very long time about. He (a centrist) believes that Biden should pre-emptively pardon trump to "help bring the country together and heal" like Ford pardoned Nixon. I (not a centrist) think that it would be a dumb and naïve idea and that no amount of good-faith acts from Biden would "bring the country together." In fact I think it would inflame the Dem base and demoralize the base for the 2022/2024 elections.

One thing I would say, because I'm willing to believe there at least won't be any downside, is that Dems should really make clear, at all times they're in front of the media, collectively as a messaging token, that if people expect them to legislate and get things done they need to vote Democrats into office. Educate about House and Senate, even simplistically, in sound bites.

Heck, I don't even care if you mislead the public and suggest that a specific threshold of electeds will result in a specific accomplishment.

I agree with this. Dems need to hammer this incessantly over the next two years to keep the base motivated for the midterms.


Also a really fascinating thing going on in Georgia right now. Biden appears very close to winning it by a razor thin margin. Interestingly enough, the polls seem to have been pretty spot on for Georgia, I remember the last polls had Biden and Trump neck and neck by the end, which is exactly what it is. So we need to figure out why the polls were accurate in some places and so egregiously off in others.

Edit: A Cuban-American gives her thoughts as to why so many went hard for Trump. Definitely a good (and short) read.

[Montmorency]

Also a really fascinating thing going on in Georgia right now. Biden appears very close to winning it by a razor thin margin. Interestingly enough, the polls seem to have been pretty spot on for Georgia, I remember the last polls had Biden and Trump neck and neck by the end, which is exactly what it is. So we need to figure out why the polls were accurate in some places and so egregiously off in others.

Edit: A Cuban-American gives her thoughts as to why so many went hard for Trump. Definitely a good (and short) read.

Wait hold on..

Polls do at least appear less inaccurate for Georgia downballot than elsewhere, from what I see.

How odd. What a cluster this has been. One of the most unusual elections ever in many ways. 2020 is just amazing. They should call it "Murphy's Year."


As for ticket splitting, this fresh study - though very limited - suggests it may still be going on at relatively-high levels (low single-digits for some races) for both parties.

Ticket Splitting in a Nationalized Era 2020

[Hooahguy]

Wait hold on..

Polls do at least appear less inaccurate for Georgia downballot than elsewhere, from what I see.

How odd. What a cluster this has been. One of the most unusual elections ever in many ways. 2020 is just amazing. They should call it "Murphy's Year."


As for ticket splitting, this fresh study - though very limited - suggests it may still be going on at relatively-high levels (low single-digits for some races) for both parties.

Ticket Splitting in a Nationalized Era 2020

I thought it was settled that this year would be called the gas leak year?

As for ticket splitting, it would explain how Collins held onto her seat, much to everyone's disappointment.

[Montmorency]

Pannonian, this will further answer your question.
https://twitter.com/therecount/statu...00240694648834 [VIDEO]


https://twitter.com/ClintSmithIII/st...22287323385857 [video]

The Black vote in Detroit is the highest it’s ever been, and we will determine the outcome, because we’ve gone from picking cotton to picking presidents.

OK, so some comparison. This first poll was the expectation going in. The exit poll, if accurate, would indicate that Cubans actually swung for Biden while Puerto Ricans performed as expected, the whites being the ones who fell through. That's - another odd result.




And speaking of the rout in the House, something I struggle to explain is that - and the millions of uncounted votes shouldn't have any bearing here - the currently-reported vote totals for the presidential election are 72.1 million vs. 68.4 million (Biden-Trump), whereas in the House elections the totals are 67.4 vs. 66.5 million.

That is a gap of MORE THAN 6 MILLION. Did millions of voters simply skip the downballot races and fill out only the presidential bubble?


Doubtless we continue to remain agnostic pending much more data and analysis.


Best case scenario, political polling turns out to be totally incapable of polling the true shadow vote, the diminishing-returns voters who only get activated once in a lifetime or once a decade. If that's the case then pollsters can create contingencies of some sort for the future, maybe. At any rate the venerable live phone poll is probably going the way of the battleship and we just have to make do with various consciously-fallible methods.





As to the final result, Biden will finish with 5-7 million votes over Trump all said. Currently there are 5 battleground states with margins narrow enough that the count might put any of them in either side with only a few thousand votes. The fact that we have to wait for this to come down to a few thousand votes in a handful of states is a profound systemic failure that will continue to bleed the country dry until the Republican Party has been totally disempowered.



@ Samurai: What's the message for this?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...rmation-413923

They should have started 10 or 20 years ago, but all I can think of is for the Democratic Party to functionally abandon the mindset of bourgeois liberal democracy and begin organizing parallel communities and institutions for a politics of survival under the party infrastructure. You know, like in shithole countries. If we need to get patrimonial, let's get patrimonial. We're going to need a machine and a mutual aid network that can deliver needed assistance to detached Blue populations in the tribal zones. Democratic social clubs, Democratic neighborhoods, Democratic enterprises, embedding into public office. That could come up by the end of the decade...

But let's be honest, no mainstream Democratic politician or voter can stomach that kind of talk even now. Who can implement it, and moreover who would condone it? We should interpret fundamental reorientation around the real American way of life to be among the sorts of development that don't manifest as a corrective until it's too late to avert the peak intensity.

Here's to charisma and messaging:

[Hooahguy]

And speaking of the rout in the House, something I struggle to explain is that - and the millions of uncounted votes shouldn't have any bearing here - the currently-reported vote totals for the presidential election are 72.1 million vs. 68.4 million (Biden-Trump), whereas in the House elections the totals are 67.4 vs. 66.5 million.

That is a gap of MORE THAN 6 MILLION. Did millions of voters simply skip the downballot races and fill out only the presidential bubble?


Doubtless we continue to remain agnostic pending much more data and analysis.


Best case scenario, political polling turns out to be totally incapable of polling the true shadow vote, the diminishing-returns voters who only get activated once in a lifetime or once a decade. If that's the case then pollsters can create contingencies of some sort for the future, maybe. At any rate the venerable live phone poll is probably going the way of the battleship and we just have to make do with various consciously-fallible methods.

Im not sure I'd call it a rout as I think that the R's will gain about 10 seats in the House but the D's will still retain control, if narrowly. At least thats what the current numbers seem to show. But heres the kicker: vote totals were higher for Dems than in 2018, its just that the Trump base was really really activated so they overcame it. Link
Definitely a setback though and its going to be a while before we really understand why this happened.

[Montmorency]

Im not sure I'd call it a rout as I think that the R's will gain about 10 seats in the House but the D's will still retain control, if narrowly. At least thats what the current numbers seem to show. But heres the kicker: vote totals were higher for Dems than in 2018, its just that the Trump base was really really activated so they overcame it. Link
Definitely a setback though and its going to be a while before we really understand why this happened.

Republicans are almost certain to win 20 seats of the current uncalled races. That puts them in the 210s. It's more than 50/50 that we keep the majority, but it's hardly going to be any majority at all.

The gap between downballot race vote totals and the presidential race totals, looking at 2016, doesn't seem to be unique. Even then there was a gap of ~9 million votes. It seems a lot of low-info people really do habitually come to vote for President but skip all the alien stuff on the ballot beyond that. So I'm still stumped.

[Hooahguy]

Ah I see that. Dems need 9 seats to retain majority, are on track to win 11 of the remaining races. Im also bullish about some of the California and PA races in which the Dem is trailing, but also they have only counted about ~80% of the ballots with huge numbers of mail-ins to count. But yes I agree it wont be as huge of a margin as in 2018 and I wonder what 2022 will carry. Will be it a repeat of 2010 or another 2018? Clearly Trump being on the ballot carries great weight. Puzzling results indeed.

In Senate news, both the Georgia senate races are headed to a January runoff if the current percentages hold, as Perdue just dipped below 50%. This means that if somehow the Dems pick up both seats, then the Senate would go into Dem control, with VP Harris as tiebreaker. No idea what's going to happen but, to quote something I saw on twitter, the amount of money that will be poured into those runoffs is going to rival the GDP of a small nation.

And to be a debbie downer, from the perspective of a pastor: we were wrong about America.

We were wrong about people we know and love and live alongside and work with and study beside; about our parents, spouses, siblings, uncles, best friends, and neighbors: they are not the people we thought they were and we do not live in the country we thought we lived in.

We believed the best about this nation and we were mistaken.

To many oppressed and vulnerable communities, to people who have long known the depth of America’s sickness because they have experienced it in traffic stops and workplace mistreatment and opportunity inequity and the bitter words of strangers—this may be less shocking news than it is to those of us with greater privilege and more buffers to adversity and the luxury of naiveté.

But this is the sober spot in which we stand now: realizing that our optimism about the whole of this nation was misplaced,
our prayers for the better angels of so many white Christians were unanswered,
our childish illusions that people were indeed basically good and decent, seared away in their reaffirmation of something that the rest of the watching world finds reprehensible.

Edit: if the data is correct, almost 24,000 Republicans in Wisconsin did not vote for Trump but then voted for Republicans downballot, swinging the state to Biden. Huge if true.

[Montmorency]

If Georgia saves our butts it would be a hell of a thing. And both Senate races, including the special election, have the Democratic candidates drawing near-50% in the most bearish national environment for Democrats in a decade or more.

Imagine Biden ends up losing NC, PA, and Arizona but clinches the EC off GA, NV, and WI with fewer net votes than Trump did in 2016. It might be enough to inspire a Republican consensus against the Electoral College. Nah, just kidding - they know they need it.

Edit: if the data is correct, almost 24,000 Republicans in Wisconsin did not vote for Trump but then voted for Republicans downballot, swinging the state to Biden. Huge if true.

For this to be a main thread through the election, it would have to be multiple millions nationally.

[Hooahguy]

If Georgia saves our butts it would be a hell of a thing. And both Senate races, including the special election, have the Democratic candidates drawing near-50% in the most bearish national environment for Democrats in a decade or more.

Yeah it would certainly be something, and it just makes me more mad that I got kicked off the GA voter rolls last year so I couldnt partake in what might be a really amazing flip.

For this to be a main thread through the election, it would have to be multiple millions nationally.

Oh I wasnt trying to extrapolate anything from this for the election as a whole, just pointing out that it was really interesting in Wisconsin.

[Montmorency]

The Republican establishment has so far appeared content to let Trump drift loose, he having outserved his purpose as executive. Doubtless they feel confident at the prospect of overtaking a hamstrung Biden administration in the coming years. At least it's fitting that Trump go out - stabbed in the back - just the way he sent out so many of his minions.

On the other hand, the nithing and his family are even now entreating state Republicans in states where Biden wins narrowly to disregard the vote and select their own slate of electors. It may be the most pathetic coup attempt in history, but it shows just how far Trump can go (much further than this) and how much he depends on the enabling of his party to act.

Sadly, the Rorke's Drift traumatic nearness of the election likely precludes any Biden DOJ prosecution. There's a good chance they'll be too piss-frozen at the evaporation of the polling-indicated mandate to wield power at all, let alone pursue criminal charges against a (most criminal of all time) former president.

[ReluctantSamurai]

@ Samurai: What's the message for this?

Dunno exactly what you're asking here. Latinos and conspiracy theories? Have no clue, not just for Latinos, but ANYONE that buys into this crap. No brain, perhaps?

But this, I have an opinion:

A flood of disinformation and deceptive claims is damaging Joe Biden in the nation’s biggest swing state.

The Biden campaign damaged themselves with Florida in general, and Latinos in particular. Florida Amendment 2 passed with 60% of the vote. Lot's of rhetoric from the Biden campaign about a national raising of the minimum wage to $15/hr. Not a peep about it during minimal campaigning in Florida.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ge-amendment-2

What Florida voters just did for themselves in approving a minimum wage ballot measure, Republican lawmakers in the state wouldn’t have — in fact, they outright opposed it. But Democrats would have, and more voters should be aware of that.

The results out of Florida on Tuesday left some people scratching their heads: Who were these people who voted for both Amendment 2 and Republican candidates, including Trump? Biden supports a nationwide $15 minimum wage; Trump has said it should be a state-by-state decision and that raising wages too much would make businesses close. But the issue isn’t actually super-complicated: People like the idea of paying workers better.

Florida’s vote should also send a signal to Democrats that a $15 minimum wage is something they should talk about more. Not every state will put out a ballot measure for people to vote on it themselves — and if it’s left to lawmakers to address the issue, Americans should be reminded that Democrats say they will.

The Biden campaign basically ignored, or took for granted the Latino vote in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. He paid for that dearly when many of them went for CoviDon, mainly on the economy issue.

[Montmorency]

Dunno exactly what you're asking here. Latinos and conspiracy theories? Have no clue, not just for Latinos, but ANYONE that buys into this crap. No brain, perhaps?

But this, I have an opinion:



The Biden campaign damaged themselves with Florida in general, and Latinos in particular. Florida Amendment 2 passed with 60% of the vote. Lot's of rhetoric from the Biden campaign about a national raising of the minimum wage to $15/hr. Not a peep about it during minimal campaigning in Florida.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...ge-amendment-2

I have no idea what Biden did or did not campaign on in Florida, or how, but here's an article noting he promoted a minimum wage increase in Florida while campaigning last month. Evidently he wasn't mum.

The Biden campaign basically ignored, or took for granted the Latino vote in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. He paid for that dearly when many of them went for CoviDon, mainly on the economy issue.

We just don't have enough information yet to conclude that. But we do know that, with Trump (and more so Republicans) somehow enjoying a small wave election in their favor compared to 2018, small-bore technical analysis of a campaign in a particular state isn't adequate to explain the overall results.

What I really want to get across though is that we should be skeptical that the content of any media strategy will prove influential in the future, given the nature of media and society today. Maybe there is something that can be done, but it probably looks more like the Democratic Party popularizing a left-wing propaganda wing and buying up news and radio outlets across the country, rather than adjusting its ad buys for TV or Internet markets.

[ReluctantSamurai]

it probably looks more like the Democratic Party popularizing a left-wing propaganda wing and buying up news and radio outlets across the country, rather than adjusting its ad buys for TV or Internet markets.

Not buying into that line of thinking. The old adage of money talks and bullshit walks is proving to not be the case in this election. Democrats in Senate races outspent their opponents by huge margins in Iowa, Montana, S. Carolina, and Texas...and lost in each case. Most notable was Jaime Harrison spending a mind-boggling $57 MILLION in his campaign against Lindsey Graham---and lost. It's also happened in the House.

Money alone isn't going to cut it. I read an overview of why Trump carried Florida easily, from a GOP organizer in Florida stating that the biggest difference in securing the Latino vote there was because they went door-to-door presenting their case for Trump, and signed up as many unregistered voters as they could find. Biden's campaign didn't really start ramping up there until September, well behind their opponents.

There's one thing you can say about Republicans...at the grass roots level, they are not afraid to go out and put in some hard work. Outside of certain areas like Arizona, Colorado, and Missouri, I'm not sure you can say the same about Democrats.

[edyzmedieval]

I just wanna say John King & Steve Kornacki are doing a masterclass in political analysis.

Master masterclass.

[Hooahguy]

The Biden campaign basically ignored, or took for granted the Latino vote in Florida, Texas, and Arizona. He paid for that dearly when many of them went for CoviDon, mainly on the economy issue.

I dunno, he and Harris both visited multiple times (separately I believe), especially in October. As did Obama. And didnt Bloomberg spend something like $100 million for Biden there too? Biden lost Cubans and Venezuelans for reasons I brought up earlier in this thread. Leftist rhetoric plays extremely poorly in these communities and Trump was able to tie Biden to people like Bernie and AOC which was enough to turn the state decisively to Trump. Florida will be a reliably red state for a generation.

As for the not going door to door thing, there's a pandemic going on so I think its understandable why Dems didnt really start this until September. But even if they started earlier, I do not think it would have been enough to overcome the other major issues.

In a similar vein, some interesting leaked comments by Rep. Spanberger (flipped a seat in 2018, narrowly held onto her seat this year) during a Dem caucus call. Called the election on a Congressional level a failure for Dems (accurate). I saw this in another place but Pelosi reportedly waived off her comments. I am personally hearing from a friend who works in my old office that people arent really happy with how Pelosi is handling this, so I do wonder if her time as speaker is limited, especially if moderates revolt. I kinda doubt it though, as this is her final term before retirement and I would be surprised if others knock her from being speaker for a final term.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Leftist rhetoric plays extremely poorly in these communities and Trump was able to tie Biden to people like Bernie and AOC which was enough to turn the state decisively to Trump.

Which serves my point. You know, I know, and many people know, Biden/Harris are anything but leftist. In fact, they've done a lot to distance themselves from the Democratic left-wing. IMHO, they didn't do a very good job of communicating this to Floridians. The GOP successfully exploited this mistake.

[Montmorency]

Which serves my point. You know, I know, and many people know, Biden/Harris are anything but leftist. In fact, they've done a lot to distance themselves from the Democratic left-wing. IMHO, they didn't do a very good job of communicating this to Floridians. The GOP successfully exploited this mistake.

The old adage of money talks and bullshit walks is proving to not be the case in this election.

I think you're misunderstanding me, as the quoted are my premise. Simply spending money on ad buys is not enough, tweaking the content of the ads, their themes and focuses, is not enough. There needs to be sustained exposure to and control over the desirable media narratives, and that requires a media apparatus of the sort the Right has. Once this is acknowledged that's the point where one realizes that it isn't about "doing a good job" but actually having the money to buy the media in the first place. I'm sure you are aware that Republicans and billionaires have a monopsony on local news, local TV, local radio...

Effort and skill are not the limiting factor when contesting entrenched propaganda and - conspiracy theories. You need to fight fire with fire in this case. More ads featuring "I'm Joe Democrat and I support a higher minimum wage" is not enough, though I'm glad to see it tried. The upcoming Georgia runoffs are the perfect opportunity to tweak legacy tactics in the way you think can make a difference. Dems and Biden should campaign heavily against Republicans as a party and advertise some good things they intend to do with 50 Senate seats. Such as cut people more checks, perhaps. Good experimental environment.

Money alone isn't going to cut it. I read an overview of why Trump carried Florida easily, from a GOP organizer in Florida stating that the biggest difference in securing the Latino vote there was because they went door-to-door presenting their case for Trump, and signed up as many unregistered voters as they could find. Biden's campaign didn't really start ramping up there until September, well behind their opponents.

Eh...

I've seen a lot of takes this year that "ground game" and street canvassing are not effective uses of money and therefore the Biden campaign was deprioritizing them. I wouldn't take it for granted

I dunno, he and Harris both visited multiple times (separately I believe), especially in October. As did Obama. And didnt Bloomberg spend something like $100 million for Biden there too? Biden lost Cubans and Venezuelans for reasons I brought up earlier in this thread. Leftist rhetoric plays extremely poorly in these communities and Trump was able to tie Biden to people like Bernie and AOC which was enough to turn the state decisively to Trump. Florida will be a reliably red state for a generation.

We should be more careful in making these assumptions. Even Obama, who won or came close to winning Cubans, won the Hispanic vote in Florida in 2012 by 60-40 according to exit polls. And if this cycle is peak Republican performance, it represents
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/pol...le1944391.html

Meanwhile, Trump made no gains in Texas, Biden being the primary beneficiary of consolidation from the former third party vote (it was the opposite in many other parts of the country) - improving Clinton's performance by 3 points. Trump's margin in Florida this time is 3 points, less than the 6-point margin in Texas and not much more than Biden's margin in Michigan.

The real problem with Florida, which has been noted for many years, is the inexhaustible stream of aging or elderly conservative migrants from the rest of the US. Florida is of a kind.

Comparing 2020 and 2016 exit polls indicates that Biden lost so much with people in their 30s that it swamped his gains with older voters, which is yet another supremely odd finding that I don't take it for granted. These exit polls also indicate that Biden made a 20-point gain among people in their late 20s, yet lost ground with those in their early 20s. There is so much we have to find out that making strong conclusions from personal theories is perilous.

None of the above is to disparage the desire to increase the salience of Hispanic groups' interests in the party, which is desirable on its own merits and needed in the long-term.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Look folks, I don't fundamentally disagree with what you are saying. But the fact remains, that for the second presidential election in a row, Democrats have severely under performed. Why is that? Is it that America has become a nation of gun-toting, conspiracy-believing bunch of idiots? To a certain degree, yes. There's simply no answer to that. Republicans are willing to accept those people into the fold in their attempt to attain or remain in power. That's not something that leads to a healthy political (or physical) existence. If that's the direction we are headed here, then we are lost no matter what the Democrats do.

I personally believe that we are most definitely going down that road, and I am completely disgusted with all of it. When people get killed over an issue so trivial as the wearing of a piece of cloth on your face during a pandemic, when 70 million people knowingly vote for someone who is a blatant racist, a misogynist, has committed crimes even while in office, and cares more for his bank account and image than for the people he's supposed to lead, then something is seriously wrong here.

Considering all that, this election should have been a slam-dunk. As it is, Biden appears to be on a path to barely squeak by. This speaks to the overall weakness of the Democratic candidate, and certainly as to how they ran their campaign. The 'broad-coalition', middle-of-the-road approach is a failure. Democrats need to take a firm stand on issues, and more importantly, work like hell to see them to fruition.

I don't agree with everything in this article, but it sums up many of my feelings:

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...speaks-volumes

But Biden didn’t offer a clear and compelling alternative. He was a weak candidate from the start, so much so that even some of his allies were worried what would happen if he won the primary. Biden, like Hillary Clinton before him, represented the corporate wing of the Democratic party; he loudly defended the private health insurance industry and the fracking industry from attacks by the left. He ran away from proposals favored by the Democratic base like Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. He didn’t show much interest in courting core constituencies like Latino voters (reportedly, the Biden campaign did not consider them part of its “path to victory”, which helps explain the losses in Texas and Florida). Biden didn’t even put much energy into the campaign; at crucial moments when Trump’s team were knocking on a million doors a week, Biden’s was reportedly knocking on zero. His ground game in important swing states like Michigan was “invisible”.

We know how Democrats can win again. Thomas Frank, in his vital book, Listen, Liberal: Or, What Ever Happened to the Party of the People?, explains that Democrats need to get back to being a party that offers something meaningful to working people. We know that voting Republican is no indication that voters actually want the agenda the Republican party will pursue in office. Fox News polling indicates voters want universal healthcare, abortion rights and a pathway to citizenship for unauthorized immigrants. Florida voters, even as they selected Donald Trump, also opted to increase the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour. The Democrats do not need to propose insipid half-measures when the data indicates that the public are fully on board with a progressive agenda.

Blaming the voters simply will not do. This is a failure of leadership. Those responsible for it need to be held accountable. Unfortunately, it looks like some in the party will learn the wrong lessons. Even though dozens of democratic socialists won their elections this year while centrists struggled, there is a contingent among Democrats whose solution to any problem is the same: become more like Republicans.

It is time for a whole new approach, not a double dose of the existing one. We need to take the right lessons from this election, the ones that didn’t take in 2016. First, don’t trust polls, and don’t get complacent or assume the tides of history will carry you to victory. Second, Trumpism will not “self-destruct”: you can’t simply run against Trump, you need a powerful alternative vision that actually gives people what they say they want and fights for something worth believing in.

Even if Biden wins, he's considering placing corporate GOP people into cabinet positions. Insane. But that's what you get when you elect corporate politicians.

[Idaho]

Considering all that, this election should have been a slam-dunk. As it is, Biden appears to be on a path to barely squeak by. This speaks to the overall weakness of the Democratic candidate...

The democrats have fielded two very poor candidates in a row. Both candidates have been the lead candidate because of internal party seniority combined with blandness. Blandness used to be an asset. It used to be that you wanted a candidate that no one could grab hold of and drag down. But that's changed. You now want a bold and, at times, obnoxious and opinionated candidate.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I personally believe that we are most definitely going down that road, and I am completely disgusted with all of it. When people get killed over an issue so trivial as the wearing of a piece of cloth on your face during a pandemic, when 70 million people knowingly vote for someone who is a blatant racist, a misogynist, has committed crimes even while in office, and cares more for his bank account and image than for the people he's supposed to lead, then something is seriously wrong here.

Can we say this is true for every Trump voter? Not everyone who voted for Trump were putting flags on their trucks and held rallies every other day for months to intimidate people.

If we have reason to believe that many voters don't even know Trump's own positions/policies, then two choices:
A. Monty is correct that Republican voters are at their core signing up for an authoritarian culture wars that keep their class/group above others on the socioeconomic level regardless of whether the overall standard of living rises or falls.
B. People are extremely fucking dumb and too easily suckered in by media bubbles (my theory).

While Monty has shown the statistical correlation between race relations and GOP voters, it's still hard to prove whether this mentality is inherent and attracted to the party or has been carefully cultivated among conservative minded people through a concerted effort since the 1970s and the kickoff of the Southern Strategy.

For the sake of my own sanity, I'm perhaps too attached to my idea of slow but steady indoctrination because there really is no solution if all these people are just...inherently terrible people.

[Pannonian]

The democrats have fielded two very poor candidates in a row. Both candidates have been the lead candidate because of internal party seniority combined with blandness. Blandness used to be an asset. It used to be that you wanted a candidate that no one could grab hold of and drag down. But that's changed. You now want a bold and, at times, obnoxious and opinionated candidate.

Labour went that route in 2015, and look where it went. Maybe it'll work better in the US than it did in the UK.

[ReluctantSamurai]

If we have reason to believe that many voters don't even know Trump's own positions/policies, then two choices:
A. Monty is correct that Republican voters are at their core signing up for an authoritarian culture wars that keep their class/group above others on the socioeconomic level regardless of whether the overall standard of living rises or falls.
B. People are extremely fucking dumb and too easily suckered in by media bubbles (my theory).

I think it's a combination of both. Of course every Republican is not a MAGA-Manic, and you're right that many folks are just idiots seeking to advance their own agenda---hence QAnon. And now those brain-dead morons have put one of their own into Congress. Doesn't bode well.....

On a different note, moderate Democrats are just plain dumb. They are bemoaning the failure to retake the Senate, and the loss of seats in the House, blaming progressives:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5...nds-into-chaos

And yet, nearly every seat lost in the House was a moderate. Meanwhile, all four members of the"Squad" retained their seats, as well as Jayapal in Washington, and Pocan in Wisconsin, while two other progressives, Jamaal Bowman in New York and Cori Bush in Missouri won their right to go to Congress. Instead of blaming the left, how about evaluating how a moderate stance might not cut it anymore, considering the ever growing number of young people coming of voting age. Ya might want to take a look at what moves the needle for them

[Montmorency]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1324571138790510592

Can Brits imagine a former Speaker of Parliament demanding that the losing PM physically detain electoral workers/officials to halt the counting of votes? And the media still invite the guy for appearances and commentary?

But Trump is reportedly under investigation for Hatch Act violations. Yep, he's toast if this is finally coming up.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/specia...ampaign-events


Glass half full take about the gains Biden has made over Clinton's performance.
https://twitter.com/nberlat/status/1324479139395575810


On Post Office inefficiency (?) leading to tens of thousands of ballots delivered late. Quite bad for it's own sake, but probably not enough to have affected more than a handful of downballot elections at worst.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...lots-election/


Looking at the polls again, the aggregates tended to nail Biden's vote share, but - undecided voters once again broke for Trump? Just as they did in 2016? Maybe then "undecided" has just been a stand-in for "shy Trump voter." ~5 points of undecideds is still a lot if they all go to Trump! The polling makes much more sense if you redistribute every undecided voter to Trump (though that isn't strictly applicable in every case).

Now we just need to figure out what happened with the downballot.





@Strike For The South

[Crandar]

Most undecided voters are just shy Trumpists, I have been convinced about that since 2016. I know pollsters don't like that concept, but honestly it looks like the simplest explanation and also confirms a pattern I have been observing everywhere, including online anonymous forums. You know, the guy who claims to dislike both sides, insisting they are both equally wrong (fallacy of moderation), but when things get heated, his criticism focuses exclusively on a specific side. We have them here too, with all that "distanced" apologia for the Nazis of the Golden Dawn.

That doesn't mean it's the only factor, polls might have underestimated Trump's performance among minorities and some pollsters, for mysterious reasons, refused to update their methodology, when 2016 revealed that voters without any college degree were underestimated. Regarding Corbyn, I don't think his failure is a sign that radicalism will get you in trouble in the United Kingdom. Labour was decimated, because Corbyn opportunistically refused to take a side in the Brexit debate, which inevitably led many from both camps to reject him.

P.S. Forgot to reply to Montmorency earlier, but, yes, you are right. What I meant to say about Harris was opportunist, not populist. Major failure in English here, so my apologies.

[edyzmedieval]

Decision Desk HQ, a well known political analysis team, has called it for Joe Biden.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/s...10866516905984

[ReluctantSamurai]

Decision Desk HQ, a well known political analysis team, has called it for Joe Biden.

Doesn't mean much, at this point. CoviDon will call for recounts in several states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona (if he loses there), and perhaps Michigan. If that fails to alter results, the next phase will be to appeal to Republican legislatures in those states to ignore the popular vote and declare their electoral votes for him. More chaos and more litigation ensues. His final line of defense (which he has stated openly) is that the whole matter ends up in SCOTUS where he's counting on the lapdogs he's placed there to give him the presidency. It ain't over by a long shot....

A bit more on how far QAnon has come in the last four years:

https://www.mediamatters.org/qanon-c...-congress-2020

I don't have the time or the desire to fact check the validity of the list, but two (not just the one I was aware of) QAnon supporters have made it to Congress. And this is the emerging America? We think things are screwed up now, wait until 2024.....

[edyzmedieval]

Recounting in margins that are over 50.000 are highly improbable and frankly useless. So Michigan no chance. Wisconsin as well, unlikely.

Georgia will go into automatic recount however.