POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[ReluctantSamurai]

I don't think people have ever ever been so interested and invested in an American Presidential election.

......as hackers all over the Soviet Union and China can attest to....

[edyzmedieval]

https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president

Economist gave a 98% chance to Democrats.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

Five Thirty Eight has it at 50.1 right now.

[Hooahguy]

They said it was similar odds in 2016 too, though of course things are different now.

[ReluctantSamurai]

though of course things are different now.

Not the least of which is that Fearless Leader is now the incumbent. The 'what have you done for me lately' mentality tends to prevail when voters go to the polls to elect a new prez. Folks who study that sort of thing repeatedly point this out. Not sayin' that it's an automatic for Biden. People at either end of the voter spectrum aren't going to change their opinion much, so it comes down to those in the center. SARS-2 is still going to be running rampant come November, and the economy will still be in the toilet if not headed straight for the sewer. So who's to blame? And just as important, who can fix it?

[edyzmedieval]

They said it was similar odds in 2016 too, though of course things are different now.

There is however one significant difference, and it showed in the primary when Sanders lost so many votes he won back in 2016 - Hillary Clinton was really, really disliked by the general public.

Biden on the other hand has a significant boost of appeal especially with moderates and with many Republicans as well.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

270towin.com has it too close to call. While Trump would have to get more of the 86 votes they list as toss-ups than does Biden, the task is not impossible. Trump's disapproval rating is NOT at the lowest ebb of his Presidency and was, until the riots, actually rebounding positively during the Coronavirus re-opening phase efforts.

FL, NC, PA, WI are still too close to call and while MI is leaning Biden narrowly, Ohio is leaning Trump by a narrow margin. As a FL resident, I will tell you that a repeat of the Santoris victory margin by Trump in the upcoming general is a distinct possibility. Florida has been decided into the "red" column by a very few thousand votes on numerous occasions.

[Hooahguy]

I think Wisconsin and Arizona are going blue this year but as for the rest, its anybody's game. I do however think that PA is looking more favorably than that map suggests since the polling average has been steady with Biden +5.6. An upset is always possible but its different this time around: Trump is the incumbent, Covid isnt going away any time soon, and the Sunbelt has seen a huge increase across the board, so the "botching the response" narrative is an easy one to push. Ive heard some people cautioning against becoming complacent, but Ive literally seen nobody being so.

Edit: I also wonder how Florida being ravaged by Covid will impact things. A backlash against the GOP for closing too slow/pushing reopening too soon? Drive turnout down? Fall into the sea finally? All three? Its 4.5 months to election so a lot can happen between now and then.

[Montmorency]

The RNC has announced its intent to recycle the 2016 Republican platform and Donald Trump's campaign site has no policy information. The precipitate of grievance has been achieved.

At his rally, an applause line.

President Trump on coronavirus testing: “I said to my people, slow the testing down, please."

The crowd goes wild.

Trump can never win less than 40% of the vote, but there just haven't been many indicators that there are quite enough degenerates to turn out for him. As I've continually reiterated, Trump mustn't lose any supporters on net merely in order to repeat a break-even Electoral College victory. It's unclear that there have been enough Republican "Never-Trump" converts over 3 years to make up for the documented drain of suburban support and among white and older demographics, and the reciprocal consolidation on the Democratic coalition. If there have not been, then a Trump reelection would be a mathematical improbability.

As to the point that Biden's leads in the swing states are statistically marginal, this is true. Yet at the same time the consistency of his polling leads to date puts Biden ahead of every other challenger since, ever? The only other incumbent presidents to mirror Trump's approval level around this time were Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush, to my knowledge. Will Trump be closing the gap soon?

The September polling during the official campaign season, post-conventions, will be the most probative. The government has ostensibly chosen death with regard to the pandemic and economic crisis, so we'll have to see the effects of that over the summer.

270towin.com has it too close to call. While Trump would have to get more of the 86 votes they list as toss-ups than does Biden, the task is not impossible. Trump's disapproval rating is NOT at the lowest ebb of his Presidency and was, until the riots, actually rebounding positively during the Coronavirus re-opening phase efforts.

Just to be pedantic, his all-term peak was at the beginning of April. If you're referring to the most recent high, that was a week before the Floyd killing.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The Dems have a lot of work to do. Just choosing an African American woman as a running mate isn't going to be enough, if this discussion is any indication:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...e-woods-325641

Most of my audience was Black—save for a few white men with their collared shirts tucked into khakis—but this wasn’t the target demographic I had imagined for this article. These were professional, affluent Black people. These were Black people who spent Sunday afternoons sipping Mimosas and playing spades. These were Black people who were going to vote.

Griffith will vote this November. But she isn’t excited about it. And truth be told, she doesn’t know anyone who is. “I bet our numbers come up, because nobody liked Hillary Clinton, but I don’t think they come up much. And I know they don’t get back to those record numbers from Obama,” Griffith said of Black voter turnout. “We look at Joe Biden and see more of the same. It’s about the era he came up. It’s about his identity—he’s a rich, old white man. What are his credentials to us, other than Obama picking him? It’s nice that he worked with Obama. But let’s keep it real: That was a political calculation. Obama thought he needed a white man to get elected, just like Biden thinks he needs a Black woman to get elected. We can see through that.”

These sentiments resurfaced in almost every conversation I had. First, that Biden choosing a woman of color might actually irritate, not appease, Black voters. Second, that the inferno of June would flicker by summer’s end and fade entirely by November. And third, that Biden does little to inspire a wary Black electorate that views him as the status quo personified. It was thoroughly convincing. Here were high-information voters, giving their personal opinions while also analyzing the feeling of their community, all making the same points in separate conversations.

“There’s no excitement for Biden,” Moore said. “Trump can get his people riled up. Biden can’t. That’s why there’s all this talk of putting a Black woman on the ticket. But that’s not going to help him win.” Sitting in a chair nearby, ERIC BENJAMIN snickered. “He’s just the lesser of two evils.”

“Biden’s a politician, same as the rest of them, same as Trump. But at least with Trump you know where he stands,” he said. “If we were sitting here, me and you, and you’re pretending we’re friends, but then behind my back, you act like you don’t even know me, that’s the worst. I’d much rather you just tell me to my face that we’re not friends. That’s Trump. I respect that. The Democrats always be acting like we’re friends.”

“Now, the Democratic Party takes us for granted. But it has always taken us for granted. So, it is what it is. But I’ll be for whoever is against Trump. Am I excited about Joe Biden? Is he going to make my life better? No. But I need to send a message that Trump is unacceptable.”

If you talk to younger people, they’re not going to automatically look past his history just because he was Obama’s VP. And the party had better realize that. He had better realize that. You know, that stuff on ‘The Breakfast Club,’ suggesting we’ve got to vote for him because we’re Black—young people do not respond to that.” “Exactly,” Yancey said. “It’s not a question of them voting for Trump. It’s a question of them not voting at all.”

The cross-section of those at that gathering was interesting: an ex-cop, a couple of local magistrates, a retired school teacher, a couple of real-estate agents, and an ex-convict. Sleepy Joe better pay attention...