POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Redpilled. Based.

As a Boomer, I had to have the latter term explained to me by my son. He suggested it is (started as?) some kind of alt-right code language. I will assume you meant it, given the Matrix reference, in the context of me finally having "seen the light" in my vehemence in opposing the current President of the USA. I will note, however, that I am in no way, shape, or form a proponent of the alt-right agenda. They are anathema to a conservative such as myself.

As you are no doubt aware, the underpinnings of my disdain for the current occupant of 1600 PA Ave are quite different than your own, though we have come to share a short term political objective for reasons of our own -- some similar, others I suspect not so.

[CrossLOPER]

As a Boomer, I had to have the latter term explained to me by my son.

I actually happened to look into this a while ago. It's a Matrix reference, obviously. It's supposed to mean taking a close look at the world and its wrongs around you, instead of burying your head in the sand. With incels and the alt-right, it means that all women are gold-digging whores because they don't want to have sex with you, blacks just want to steal your TV, and some other nonsense that takes minimal brainpower to think of. Mostly I remember the stuff about women. It's amazing how much people build their identity around being socially inept.

[Montmorency]

One hundred Pinocchios.

Somehow with Republicans I typically manage to apprehend the shape of things to come, but inevitably find myself shocked by the dimensions. For example, I think I was pointing out a few months ago that by all evidence universal mail voting would not disadvantage either party in abstract; yet I didn't consider the effect of engineered partisan polarization over sub-universal mail voting. Some things are just overdetermined I guess.

The following should allow you to draw inferences about what November will look like. (First is Pew, second is Marquette (Wisconsin), third is ABC/WaPo.)













https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donal...b6960c06723348

President Donald Trump stunned even hardened observers when he admitted on national television Thursday morning that he would not agree to additional U.S. Postal Service funding because it would make mail-in balloting easier.

“Now they need that money in order to make the post office work so it can take all of these millions and millions of ballots,” he said. “But if they don’t get those two items, that means you can’t have universal mail-in voting.”

Later Thursday, Vice reported that the Postal Service is removing machines that sort mail ― including ballots ― from offices without an explanation, further raising alarms that Trump will degrade the post office to hurt mail-in voting.

But starving the Postal Service of funding is just one tool at the president’s disposal to slow or stop the counting of ballots sent by mail. Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee are already engaged in litigation to prevent voters from easily casting absentee or mail-in ballots. In Pennsylvania, they are trying to block the implementation of ballot drop boxes ― curbside boxes where voters can drop their absentee ballots to be picked up by election officials. In California, the RNC tried to stop the mailing of ballots to all voters, but failed. And the Trump campaign is also challenging a new Nevada law that would mail ballots to all active voters.

Trump administration figures are also discussing potential executive actions that could curb mail-in balloting in an effort to undermine democratic elections, according to Politico. These include directing the Postal Service not to deliver mailed ballots and ordering state officials to stop counting absentee ballots on Election Day, even though the president doesn’t have legal authority to do either of these things.

The plot is simple: Trump hopes to emerge from Election Day with a slim lead, but with millions of absentee ballots still left to count. Then he will fight tooth and nail to stop those ballots, which he has long painted as “fraudulent,” from ever being counted.

This means that Trump could come out ahead on Election Day with millions, or tens of millions, of absentee and provisional ballots still left to count.

Trump can’t exactly wave a wand and stop absentee ballots from being counted. He would likely need to file lawsuits in each state that he wanted to challenge, and the suits would need to target some aspect of that state’s election laws that were theoretically being violated. While post-election litigation over ballots is a long-standing bipartisan affair, an effort like this would be unprecedented in scope — essentially a nationwide challenge to mailed or otherwise delayed ballots, seeking to either count or discount certain ballots.

Already, the Trump campaign is trying to preemptively hamper the mail-in balloting process.

Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) signed legislation on Aug. 3 that would authorize the mailing of absentee ballots to all active Nevada voters. Trump called the bill’s passage “an illegal late night coup” in a tweet. The next day, Trump’s reelection campaign sued to overturn the new law. The lawsuit argued that mailing absentee ballots to voters would make fraud “inevitable,” and sought to overturn provisions, like the acceptance of ballots with unclear postmarks received up to three days after Election Day, that existed as Nevada law before the bill was enacted.

The Trump campaign and the RNC are suing every county election office in Pennsylvania to stop them from allowing voters to return absentee ballots to drop boxes. Ballot drop boxes are exactly what they sound like: secure, sealed mailboxes solely to be used by voters dropping off their ballots. Those ballots are then collected by election officials and sorted and counted. Approximately 16% of voters used drop boxes in the 2018 election, mostly in states like Oregon and Utah that conduct their elections solely through the mail. The judge overseeing the case ordered the Trump campaign on Thursday to produce any evidence it has of voter fraud linked to drop boxes. (There is no existing evidence linking drop boxes to fraud.) In California, the RNC withdrew its lawsuit challenging Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s May 8 executive order to mail every active voter in the state an absentee ballot after the Legislature passed a bill that did the same thing as Newsom’s order.

[Strike For The South]

Harris record as a AG says more about the American justice system as a whole than it does anything about her individually. It is an unyielding meat grinder. If any of you ever find yourselves arrested the only words out of your mouth should be your name and your lawyers (or a request for one).

I understand why the more leftist, younger crowd is upset. This is not really a dream ticket by any means. I will offer my thoughts as Harris was my orginal pick for nominee. She knows exactly how the system works and can pull the exact right levers to enact lasting change. There is value in that.

I am wary of any concern trolling the Harris pick considering Trump has literal unmarked vans rolling around the pacific northwest. I understand that a candidate has to earn ones vote but sill

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This Dem ticket would lose to any number of Conservative or Moderate/conservative tickets. Against this incumbent they have a great chance.

[a completely inoffensive name]

This Dem ticket would lose to any number of Conservative or Moderate/conservative tickets. Against this incumbent they have a great chance.

This ticket would have been competitive against Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. Would have struggled against Marco Rubio or Chris Christie.

[a completely inoffensive name]

stuff

Is it really any surprise? We've already know that the base shifts at the slightest hint that Trump decides a certain idea or policy is no longer in his best interest.
Were you thinking that this would be the lone case that the hard truth convinces Republicans that mail-in voting has never hurt either political party?

Anything to own the libs man. As soon as Trump says something is bad, Republicans will immediately disavow it and anyone who says otherwise.

[Montmorency]

The trope that politicians need to "earn" votes is a narcissistic one. Politicians are tools toward our political objectives, which it is our civic duty to rationally contemplate and contextualize. This isn't like finding a restaurant on Yelp.

On the Biden platform for the first weeks of his term, if anyone cares to know. Aspirationally Reaganite in a good way. The bigger the Congressional majorities, the more that gets done. Vive la disjonction.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/pol...cession-harris

This ticket would have been competitive against Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. Would have struggled against Marco Rubio or Chris Christie.

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

Is it really any surprise? We've already know that the base shifts at the slightest hint that Trump decides a certain idea or policy is no longer in his best interest.
Were you thinking that this would be the lone case that the hard truth convinces Republicans that mail-in voting has never hurt either political party?

Anything to own the libs man. As soon as Trump says something is bad, Republicans will immediately disavow it and anyone who says otherwise.

Not surprising, but shocking.

To develop what we discussed privately, by the morning of November 4th almost no states will have counted their absentee ballots (most will not even have begun), therefore most states will remain uncalled, countless millions of ballots will remain outstanding, based on in-person returns alone Trump will appear to lead Biden by Lukashenko margins, and he will declare victory on the spot and litigate everything up to the Supreme Court to prevent counting of mail ballots.

If Roberts calls the election for Trump and/or the rest of the Republican slate, we launch the national liberation front and watch the Joint Chiefs's response.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Seamus's scenario could only take place in an alternate reality where Trump didn't win. When does anyone see the GOP returning back to the middle against Trumpism?

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

IF Trump wasn't in the race, Jeb had a chance. Christie not so much. I think Rubio would have overtaken the pack if it wasn't for the whole Christie dismantling him moment.

Not surprising, but shocking.

To develop what we discussed privately, by the morning of November 4th almost no states will have counted their absentee ballots (most will not even have begun), therefore most states will remain uncalled, countless millions of ballots will remain outstanding, based on in-person returns alone Trump will appear to lead Biden by Lukashenko margins, and he will declare victory on the spot and litigate everything up to the Supreme Court to prevent counting of mail ballots.

If Roberts calls the election for Trump and/or the rest of the Republican slate, we launch the national liberation front and watch the Joint Chiefs's response.

If SCOTUS rules another election, this country falls apart into chaotic violence. There is no national organization to mobilize the public unless the Democratic Party quickly takes on a leadership role as the democratic resistance to the political coup.
Per our previous convo, only a national strike would work to facilitate change in the absence of democratic channels in politics.

[Hooahguy]

Seamus's scenario could only take place in an alternate reality where Trump didn't win. When does anyone see the GOP returning back to the middle against Trumpism?

Exactly this. I think the Never Trumper's fantasy of "reclaiming the party" from the trumpists is just that, a fantasy. I dont know how anyone who can look at the cult of personality around Trump and still think that these people are going to go back to your garden-variety republican. My prediction is that every GOP presidential candidate for the foreseeable future is going to be a flavor of Trump and potentially more dangerous. We got lucky that Trump is a total moron, but we might not get that lucky again.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Seamus' feeling is difficult to assess, but this is straight unsubstantiated. Yet, the 2016 primary process demonstrated that the once-rising stars Cruz and Rubio just aren't well-received by the Republican base. That's the data we do have.

Republicans would never nominate Jeb Bush or Chris Christie to anything.

I think ACIN is on track as to how the tickets he noted would fare in a general election against this Dem ticket. I was noting that this Dem ticket was pretty "stock" in many ways.


As 2016 demonstrated, and as you rightly assert, however, the GOP of 2016 through the present would not nominate such a ticket as none of those named are they kinds of leaders who want victory without negotiation and aggression across the board against anything labeled as "liberal." Inculcated by Limbaugh and Hannity with the mantra that compromise means the liberals won, this GOP base sees any form of negotiation over substance as anathema.