POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Levitz' line on Biden speech. LOL


Yes. The GOP that Trump has enacted over the past 4 or so years, following the long efforts of Limbaugh and Hannity in shaping the mindscape of the non-"country club" republicans, is a party that considers conspiracy theories as something that need to be seriously considered and according them the same mental "weight" as hard-won intelligence and confirmed facts.

Just one of the reasons that the house-cleaning needs to be so thorough (though I fear it will not be thorough enough).

[ReluctantSamurai]

Ehhh, you folks might want to redo this a bit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/u...-platform.html

“The survival of the internet as we know it is at risk,” the platform reads. “Its gravest peril originates in the White House, the current occupant of which has launched a campaign, both at home and internationally, to subjugate it to agents of government.”

“The Middle East is more dangerous now than at any time since the Second World War,” the platform reads. “Whatever their disagreements, presidents of both parties had always prioritized America’s national interests, the trust of friendly governments, and the security of Israel. That sound consensus was replaced with impotent grandstanding on the part of the current President and his Secretaries of State. The results have been ruinous for all parties except Islamic terrorists and their Iranian and other sponsors.”

[Montmorency]

I'd already heard two months ago that the RNC would formally adopt no (new) platform, other than the greatness of Trump I guess.

Cool new idiom I learned: "The game is not worth the candle."

[Hooahguy]

Still trying to figure out if it was done out of laziness, an actual sworn fealty to Trump, or perhaps just waiting to see where the wind blows to leave open the potential of starting from scratch in 2024. I'm guessing a mix of all three.

[ReluctantSamurai]

An interesting take on the real GOP platform:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ianism/615640/

The challenge for Republicans in the week ahead is to hope that President Trump can remember, night after night, to speak only the things he’s supposed to speak—not to blurt the things his party wants its supporters to absorb unspoken.

[Hooahguy]

Well the RNC is going roughly as well as expected.

A speaker for the Republican National Convention retweeted an anti-Semitic screed on Tuesday morning, the same day she was slated to take the stage to praise President Donald Trump’s hard-line immigration policies.

A person familiar with the matter confirmed to POLITICO on Tuesday evening that the speaker, Mary Ann Mendoza, was no longer appearing at the RNC.

[Hooahguy]

An article which goes into some of what Monty mentioned earlier, and how mass voting by mail is a trap.

For a moment, imagine a swing state where 42 percent of ballots are cast by mail and Biden carries them 80 percent to 20 percent, while Trump carries all other ballots 70 percent to 30 percent. If every ballot were to count, Biden would win the state 51 percent to 49 percent. But if 8 percent of absentees were ruled invalid for various reasons - and the invalidated votes were reflective of the overall absentee pool — Trump would prevail by two hundredths of 1 percent.

This scenario explains why both sides are pouring tens of millions of dollars into litigating states' mail-in ballot rules and procedures this year.

Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias, who represented Franken in the 2008 Minnesota recount, is quarterbacking Democrats' efforts to prevent mail-in votes from being rejected. Elias is actively engaged in lawsuits in 18 states on everything from witness requirements and signature matching protocol to drop-off boxes and postmark/return deadlines — all of which differ by state.


"The rejection rates we've seen in the primaries have almost uniformly been above historic ranges," Elias said, pointing to Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as particular litigation hot spots. "I take Republicans at face value, that they don't want people to vote by mail."

If the Biden camp keeps publicly pushing for voting by mail by those who do not absolutely need it, then I think theres a good chance Trump gets a second term, Id say in the 75% range. Especially since the latest round of riots have given Trump more ammunition and may push the needle towards him in a really key state.

In Kenosha County, where the president won by fewer than 250 votes in 2016, those who already supported Mr. Trump said in interviews that the events of the past few days have simply reinforced their conviction that he is the man for the job. But some voters who were less sure of their choice said the chaos in their city and the inability of elected leaders to stop it were currently nudging them toward the Republicans.

[Montmorency]

An interesting take on the real GOP platform:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...ianism/615640/

Well the RNC is going roughly as well as expected.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...vention-400039

“Owning the libs and pissing off the media,” shrugs Brendan Buck, a longtime senior congressional aide and imperturbable party veteran if ever there was one. “That’s what we believe in now. There’s really not much more to it.”

How many times do we need them to tell us who they are? This isn't new information.

With Election Day just a few months away, I was genuinely surprised, in the course of recent conversations with a great many Republicans, at their inability to articulate a purpose, a designation, a raison d'être for their party.

War against Humanity.

An article which goes into some of what Monty mentioned earlier, and how mass voting by mail is a trap.


If the Biden camp keeps publicly pushing for voting by mail by those who do not absolutely need it, then I think theres a good chance Trump gets a second term, Id say in the 75% range. Especially since the latest round of riots have given Trump more ammunition and may push the needle towards him in a really key state.

If the cited recent study finding four percent total attrition of mail ballots in the 2016 election is correct, that's significantly higher than the 1% (for 2016) commonly referenced. Volume, first-time mail voters, and any postal service delays could easily be expected to push that up considerably. Interactions with individual state baselines are unpredictable.

Conservatively assuming a partisan imbalance of only 33% of Republicans voting by mail against 50% of Democrats, and granting an elevated and uniform attrition rate for in-person ballots (say 1%), then even a 5% uniform attrition rate for mail ballots knocks about 0.6% off the Democrat's vote share in a given two-way race. A more extreme partisan imbalance in mail modality of 25(R)-75(D), with a staggering 10% attrition rate, would ceteris paribus reduce the Democrat's vote share by 4.5%. In terms of the winning margin in a two-way contest, then in the former case a 50-50 race would go 50.15:49.84, and in the latter case a 50-50 race would go 51.2-48.9.

Taking those sets of parameters on partisan split in voting modality and attrition rate of the modalities as upper and lower bounds, we would expect Democrats to see a penalty of between 0.3 and 2.4 points relative to Republicans in a typical race (not taking other variables into account, such as voter suppression). Anyone can naturally recognize that a worst-case penalty of more than 2 points from the final margin* for Democrats could be fatal in a close race. In 2018, for example, 21 of 435 House races had a margin of victory within 2.3%, 14 of which changed parties, 13 of which were Democratic flips. The Democratic capture of the Arizona Senate seat in 2018 was by a 2.34% margin. The Republican victories in Florida's Senate and gubernatorial races were within a 0.5% margin. And of course, there were 6 states within 1.5% margins in 2016, though 4 were won by Trump.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Base scenario Republican and Democrat 1000 votes each, or 50:50 ratio.

If mail 33-50, 5% mail attrition, 1% in-person attrition:

R: 1000*1/3*1/20 = 16.66 mail down; 1000 *2/3*1/100 = 6.66 in-person down >>> ~24/1000 = 2.4% votes down
D: 1000*1/2*1/20 = 25 mail down; 1000*1/2*1/100 = 5 in-person down >>> 30/1000 = 3% votes down
Net Attrition: -0.6% Dem
Margin Change: 50.15:49.84 = -0.31 Dem

If mail 25-75, 5% mail attrition, 1% in-person attrition:

R: 1000*1/4*1/20 = 12.5 mail down; 1000*3/4*1/100 = 7.5 in-person down >>> 20/1000 = 2% votes down
D: 1000*3/4*1/20 = 37.5 mail down; 1000*1/4*1/100 = 2.5 in-person down >>> 40/1000 = 4% votes down
Net Attrition: -2% Dem
Margin Change: 50.52:49.48 = -1.03 Dem

If mail 33-50, 10% mail attrition, 1% in-person attrition:

R: 1000*1/4*1/10 = 25 mail down; 1000*3/4*1/100 = 7.5 in-person down >>> 32.5/1000 = 3.25% votes down
D: 1000*3/4*1/10 = 75 mail down; 1000*1/4*1/100 = 2.5 in-person down >>> 77.5/1000 = 7.75% votes down
Net Attrition: -4.5% Dem
Margin Change: 51.16:48.78 = -2.38 Dem

*Because of math reasons I don't quite understand anymore, a reduction of x% of the value of one side of a ratio changes the margin between sides by roughly, but not exactly, x/2%

One practical consequence is that you can kiss Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio goodbye as EC contenders this cycle. Arizona and Florida might still be in play (both due to size of margins and better historical experience with mail voting), but shoring up the heavy Biden leads in the basic frontline states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (all currently under Democratic leadership) should be the priority.

It's not the end of the world if even 10 gettable/Dem-lean House seats flip to Republicans on net, but we could easily whiff on a couple of Senate seats, which would dramatically stymie Biden's entrance.


I'm still astonished these fellows haven't been criminally charged in 3 years of wacky crime.

[rory_20_uk]

Many, many years ago, when life was simple, the only messages people received were from a few major broadcasters, the USA was a beacon that people in other countries looked up to and in many cases were inspired at what humanity could achieve.

Now, the message is somewhat more nuanced. It is a warning as to what can happen in democracies in a short time (1930's Germany is too long ago). It is a reminder that reality and what was shown on the News rarely are the same - the USA was, is and and shows no sign of changing from being a very racist, semi-apartheid state; the American Dream and Values were at best a form of Cold War propaganda. Finally it is a signal lesson that almost unfettered neoliberalism will concentrate all money in the hands of those who can buy off the handlers.

When Biden is the best hope for a brighter tomorrow, we truly realise how dark it has become.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ehhh, you folks might want to redo this a bit:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/11/u...-platform.html“The Middle East is more dangerous now than at any time since the Second World War,” the platform reads. “Whatever their disagreements, presidents of both parties had always prioritized America’s national interests, the trust of friendly governments, and the security of Israel. That sound consensus was replaced with impotent grandstanding on the part of the current President and his Secretaries of State. The results have been ruinous for all parties except Islamic terrorists and their Iranian and other sponsors.”

I kept thinking about this and wondering when, since Johnson, it would NOT have been applicable...

[Pannonian]

I kept thinking about this and wondering when, since Johnson, it would NOT have been applicable...

The last few months have been the quietest that I can remember in my lifetime.

[ReluctantSamurai]

What we are now seeing, is the expression of the one thing Trump excels at---subterfuge. He knows his SARS-2 response is more than abysmal, and he knows it's difficult to campaign on the economy when the economy has disappeared down the shit-hole. The one single thing he and his campaign can do, and do quickly, is to fulminate anger and unrest so that enough Americans will forget about the first two and hand him the White House for a second term.

What's frustrating is how media has bought into this, and therefore heavily influencing the general public. When was the last time you viewed mainstream media content of any kind where the pandemic or the economy held the lead story and had articles and opinions in support. Now it's unrest in Portland, Chicago, New York, and the latest media love interest, Kenosha Wisconsin. If Trump is one thing, it's an opportunist. When presented with these "opportunities" to advance his "Law & Order" platform (and by advance I mean do everything possible to make the situation worse), he's made hay, so-to-speak. He's using Terry Goodkind's "Wizard's First Rule" to perfection.

Democrats have run a sensible campaign, up to this point, but are now simply reacting to what the President says or does. Voicing outrage Trump's latest flaunting of law (for which he knows nothing will be done about it) is not going to cut it. If the Dems don't start acting pro-actively, they will see their large leads in the polls vanish as the election approaches.

[Hooahguy]

Completely agree. Biden's speech today I think was a step towards the right direction. Jennifer Rubin had a good article yesterday about just this:

Trump amplifies White fears. Brookings explains: “His efforts to claim that the legitimate protesters are all Antifa, blame ‘liberal Governors and Mayors’ for the unrest, and declare that ‘when the looting starts, the shooting starts’ all exacerbate tensions. Such statements are likely to provoke strong and divergent reactions from across the political spectrum rather than bring Americans together in outrage over George Floyd’s murder and the need to reject violence in favor of genuine reform.”

Republican elected officials feel comfortable reverting to the Southern Strategy, portraying themselves as the only thing standing between White people and violent Black people. It is a tune they have been singing since 1968.

Naturally then, the news media is holding Trump accountable for violence, insisting that he condemn police excesses and … no, that is not happening. Instead, they amplify Trump’s demand that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden do something about the violence. Biden’s weak-kneed supporters (playing into Trump’s hands) blame Biden for not denouncing violence — which Biden has repeatedly done. That in turn generates a spate of “Democrats worried violence hurts Biden” articles. The media focus on the same few incidents of violence drowns out reports (mostly in print, rarely on TV news) explaining White instigators’ role in these events. (When the role of White provocateurs does make the news, there is rarely video to accompany the brief reference to White agitators.) And you wonder how Trump gets away with rabid race-baiting?

A few Democrats have figured out what is going on. Appearing on CNN, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Calif.) observed, “They believe the violence is helpful to them. And the president is only motivated by one thing: ‘What is in it for him?’ He sees this violence — and his ability to agitate more of it — as useful to his campaign.” He added, “What it does to the country, the loss of life, he doesn’t care.”

I think that things will calm over the next few weeks like it has before and the news can focus on COVID again, but the real question will be what will happen if there is another killing and it all kicks off again right before the election.

[ReluctantSamurai]

I think that things will calm over the next few weeks like it has before and the news can focus on COVID again

That, I'm afraid, the Trump Administration will not allow to happen. The call to 'defend our cities' will only increase in the coming weeks, and Kenosha will be repeated again and again.

Rather ironic that Fearless Leader attacks Biden for wanting to 'defund police' when it's actually the other way around:

https://www.vox.com/2020/6/16/212866...ing-the-police

President Trump has repeatedly proposed cuts in federal funding for police, criticized landmark legislation that boosted financial support for police departments, and is currently involved in blocking legislation that would greatly reduce pressure on local governments to cut police funding.

This dispute about budgeting — where Democrats are fighting against austerity and Republicans are fighting for it — is different from the theoretical argument police abolitionists want to have about the future of law enforcement. But it’s a real one playing out this summer in Congress with real consequences for the lives of hundreds of millions of people. And in this debate, it’s Trump who wants to defund the police.

In early February of this year, the Trump administration proposed a 58 percent cut in the federal government’s COPS Hiring Program, a federal program that supports police department staffing. That’s not a one-off; his administration’s budget proposals have routinely called for huge cuts to this program, which was inaugurated in the 1990s as part of Bill Clinton’s pledge to hire 100,000 new police officers (Congress keeps declining to do this).

Why the Dems don't focus in on this, and tie the actual defunding of local and state governments (and therefore police departments) to the economic downturn as a result of the abysmal pandemic response, is a mystery to me. What the eff are they waiting for?

[Montmorency]

The Republican soul. If only police had the restraint of customer-facing staff.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1299914167525216256 [VIDEO]

What we are now seeing, is the expression of the one thing Trump excels at---subterfuge. He knows his SARS-2 response is more than abysmal, and he knows it's difficult to campaign on the economy when the economy has disappeared down the shit-hole. The one single thing he and his campaign can do, and do quickly, is to fulminate anger and unrest so that enough Americans will forget about the first two and hand him the White House for a second term.

What's frustrating is how media has bought into this, and therefore heavily influencing the general public. When was the last time you viewed mainstream media content of any kind where the pandemic or the economy held the lead story and had articles and opinions in support. Now it's unrest in Portland, Chicago, New York, and the latest media love interest, Kenosha Wisconsin. If Trump is one thing, it's an opportunist. When presented with these "opportunities" to advance his "Law & Order" platform (and by advance I mean do everything possible to make the situation worse), he's made hay, so-to-speak. He's using Terry Goodkind's "Wizard's First Rule" to perfection.

Biden has kind of boxed himself out of running on 'the entire Republican party is a fascist conspiracy (and a pretty overt one) toward the overthrow of republican government. Get mad you son of a bitches, peace was never an option!'

One might suggest, boss-man don't need to say it, his allies and operatives do, while Biden waxes about decency, harmony, and the Light side of the force. The problem is that the bipartisan comity mentality is fractal down the layers of Democratic politics. They desperately believe in the need for love and unity among Americans - which we don't and can't have in the status quo. Also, they fear alienating moderates and the politically passive. Same logic as Obama
putting the lid on Russian active measures intel in fall 2016 (by the way, about that...)

It's taken all of - THIS *waves at last 4 years* - for at least some Democratic electeds to reach the point of: being uncustomarily disrespectful toward the President and his performance; voicing their fear that the character/future of the country is at stake; considering thinking about bypassing some of the procedural barriers of government.

The most aggressive Democrats have been against Trump was their narrow and somber impeachment inquiry.

Half a year ago Democrats eagerly helped Trump take up the biggest economic relief program in American history, sacrificing trillions in transfers to big business and billionares in exchange for hundreds of billions for desperate families and small businesses. The stimulus was successful enough that Republicans have stonewalled all further legislation even as accumulated savings run dry and evictions kick up as we close on the election. Does that sound like the Republicans care about how the mood of the electorate will manifest at the ballot box? Should the Dems then not have played hardball? I wouldn't necessarily go that far, but it's clearly a sign of a mindset trapped in "normal" politics.

I don't mean to rag on Democrats too much. The electorate, and not just at the margins, is clueless, disengaged and performatively cynical (disclosure: I was like that 4 years ago); the fears of alienating them, to say nothing of the mainstream media, are not entirely unreasonable. And besides overcoming deeply-held personal beliefs, the path dependence of messaging-as-ideology is a hell of a thing. The longer you spend doing the same thing, the more difficult it is to overcome that inertia. It would take true leadership to move the whole party culture on a dime and change strategies. Circling back, naturally, Biden is, and was chosen for being, the exact last person who could demonstrate this kind of pathbreaking leadership. But this is a unique world-historical moment, and the people in power have a responsibility to the gravity of the situation and to posterity.

If I had my druthers, every Democratic elected from Biden down would (have) spend/t each day hammering the stakes in this register:



Orgah Idaho's signature is a good start.

Democrats have run a sensible campaign, up to this point, but are now simply reacting to what the President says or does. Voicing outrage Trump's latest flaunting of law (for which he knows nothing will be done about it) is not going to cut it. If the Dems don't start acting pro-actively, they will see their large leads in the polls vanish as the election approaches.

Marginal fluctuations in public opinion are now less relevant as a threshold matter than the looming extinction of free and fair elections in this country.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/ele...oting-n1112436

[ReluctantSamurai]

The most aggressive Democrats have been against Trump was their narrow and somber impeachment inquiry.

And it's obvious that isn't going to cut it any longer. Fearless Leader has finally found a chink in the Dems armour, and is hammering away with full force. If there is any backbone to their leadership, they need to take the fight to the President. Bleating like a bunch scared sheep is no longer an option.

An interesting read from a week ago:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...-loses/615835/

Here is a prediction about the November election: If Donald Trump wins, in a trustworthy vote, what’s happening this week in Kenosha, Wisconsin, will be one reason. Maybe the reason. And yet Joe Biden has it in his power to spare the country a second Trump term.

Events are unfolding with the inevitable logic of a nightmare. A white police officer shoots a Black man as he’s leaning into a car with his three sons inside—shoots him point-blank in the back, seven times, “as if he didn’t matter,” the victim’s father later says. If George Floyd was crushed to death by depraved indifference, Jacob Blake is the object of an attempted execution. Somehow, he survives—but his body is shattered, paralyzed from the waist down, maybe for life. Kenosha explodes in rage, the same rage that’s been igniting around the country all summer long, fading in Minneapolis only to flare up in Portland. In Kenosha, as elsewhere, what starts in peaceful protest soon leads to violence: cars burned, shops smashed, local businesses destroyed. Police and rioters incite one another to escalate; armed vigilantes take matters into their own hands; and a teenager from out of state kills two local men with an AR-15-style rifle. The authorities are overwhelmed and ineffectual, offering little in the way of information or protection. Within a couple of days, much of the small city is a ruined landscape.

It’s no use dismissing their words as partisan talking points. They are effective ones, backed up by certain facts. Trump will bang this loud, ugly drum until Election Day. He knows that Kenosha has placed Democrats in a trap. They’ve embraced the protests and the causes that drive them. The third night of the Democratic convention was consumed with the language and imagery of protest—as if all Americans watching were activists.

Harris, a Black former prosecutor and now an advocate for police reform, seems uniquely positioned to speak to the crisis. But she has said little all week, which suggests that there might be things she doesn’t want to say. On Thursday, Harris directly addressed the events in Kenosha, affirming that Americans “must always defend peaceful protest and peaceful protesters. We should not confuse them with those looting and committing acts of violence.” She quickly moved on. Democratic leaders, from the nearly invisible mayor of Kenosha up to those on the presidential ticket, are reluctant to tarnish a just cause, amplify Republican attacks, or draw the wrath of their own progressive base (Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut deleted a tweet saying that both the Blake shooting and the riots were wrong after commenters accused him of equating the two). So Democrats continue to mute their response to the violence and hope it will subside, even though it has persisted straight through the summer.

Nothing will harm a campaign like the wishful thinking, fearful hesitation, or sheer complacency that fails to address what voters can plainly see. Kenosha gives Biden a chance to help himself and the country. Ordinarily it’s the incumbent president’s job to show up at the scene of a national tragedy and give a unifying speech. But Trump is temperamentally incapable of doing so and, in fact, has a political interest in America’s open wounds and burning cities.

Unfortunately, Fearless Leader has beaten them to the punch, and is visiting Kenosha today. Lost opportunity for Biden, Harris, and the Dems. They should have already been there and pre-empted The Bully from using Kenosha to further his agenda of sowing more chaos. This isn't the Karate Kid where the loud mouthed bully gets felled in the end by the Crane Kick.

A further knock on the Democratic response to the shifting public attention:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...-strife-405578

For months, the contrast of Biden's caution with Trump's Twitter tirades reinforced Democrats’ claims that the president never took the virus seriously enough — and never would. Biden's constant presence in his basement over the summer was mocked by Trump but seemed to help the candidate with voters who welcomed the Democrat's restraint.

“He’s trying to model what national leadership should look like. It’s not about yourself, it’s about protecting others,” said Michigan state Senate Minority Leader Jim Ananich, a Democrat from Flint. “It’s been the reality TV star versus someone acting responsibly.”

As polls have shown modest tightening in the race, Biden surrogates and Democratic strategists said in interviews that they’ve been urging the campaign to be more explicit in linking Trump’s early failures on coronavirus with the sluggish economy and high jobless rates.

“Trump and the RNC are preying on legitimate fears to lie about defunding police, destroying suburbs, and more, labeling the vice president as `Joe the destroyer,’” one questioner said to Harris. “What's our strategy to cut through all of this and communicate a simple, clear understandable message that will resonate with undecided voters?”

Your strategy needs to be to get your ass out on the campaign trail and show people what was voiced at the DNC wasn't just political rhetoric, as put by a Republican pollster in Arizona:

Biden needs to "show that he cares about Arizona, and that he’s attentive to Arizona,” said Paul Bentz, a Republican pollster in the state. “If Biden wants to win Arizona, he has to come here.”

The same reason why he should have already been in Kenosha

Marginal fluctuations in public opinion are now less relevant as a threshold matter than the looming extinction of free and fair elections in this country.

Marginal in the national sense, perhaps, but it's obvious that the election will come down to the Rust Belt states again, and if Fearless Leader carries those, the 'extinction of free and fair elections' won't matter much.