POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Montmorency]

Final predictions from the hip: I think in the end there will be many races that come up frustratingly short. Republican cheating tilts the margins nationally in their favor by a few points, but this will vary wildly state-by-state and can't really be estimated. The SCOTUS has signaled a chilling willingness to demand the cessation of tallying as early as midnight Nov. 4, especially when it comes to Pennsylvania - so who knows? Thus all predictions below regard the certified results in an election as smooth as we can hope for, not votes tout court.

National vote pseudo-confidence intervals (these haven't changed that much from my early 2020 prognosis, maybe the range is a couple points up for Biden and the reverse for Trump):

Biden almost always wins between 51-55%.
Trump almost always wins 41-45%.
I thought earlier on that the third party vote would always be less than 2%, but by now I'll estimate within 1-3% (so, often a little more than 2%).


Biden will take Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, thus securing the Electoral College. He will be certified the winner in one or two of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina. He will win one of Texas, Ohio, Georgia. He will probably win one of the longshot small states: Montana, Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, South Carolina, etc.

In Senate races, Democrats will lose the Alabama seat but gain seats in Colorado and Arizona. They will win one of the Georgia seats (both will almost certainly head to a runoff in January, a less favorable environment) and two of three in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina*. They will win one of the stretch races among South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, and Montana. I would be shocked if Dems beat either Cornyn in Texas, McConnell in Kentucky, or Hyde-Smith in Mississippi. Arriving at a total of 52 seats. Maybe +/- 1.

*North Carolina seemed like an easy gain this cycle, but the polls have narrowed to a toss-up since news broke early in the month of the Democrat candidate's disgustingly-PG affair.

In the House, Dems probably expand their majority by fewer than 10 seats.


Montana is one of the most dynamic states because there are close races for Governor, Senate seat, and single House seat that Democrats could sweep together in a landslide. Anything could happen.


All else is a hold.


(Ideally, Biden sweeps all the red and battleground states within striking distance for a 450-EV victory, we hold the Senate seat in Alabama and win all the close or stretch races for 57 or 58 Senate seats, gain 30 House seats, and break Republican trifectas in up to half a dozen states.)


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Since the end of Sunday more than 20 million early votes have been recorded. Between the beginning of September and the end of last Sunday, there had been ~60 million early votes: a record high. That is, in 4 days, with 5 to go until Election Day, early votes recorded grew from less than 60 million to 80 million. There were fewer than 140 million votes recorded in 2016.

The early vote in Texas has already exceeded ALL , I repeat, 100%, of votes recorded in Texas in 2016. Florida is not far behind; a MAJORITY of registered voters have already voted in Florida.

It is now quite likely that this election will see the most early votes ever cast, the most mail votes ever cast, and the highest proportion of mail or early votes of the total vote. Depending on just how much turnout there is on Election Day itself, or in late-arriving mail ballots, less than 40% of the total vote could be submitted/accepted on Election Day itself. In-person elections and the idea of a single-day election could be increasingly viewed as anachronistic.

Many are forecasting the highest turnout for a US national election since 1904 or 1900.

So far, polls of early voters suggest a 2-1 advantage for Democrats in the early vote as proceeding, whereas Election Day voters lean something less than that for Republicans. If this split holds, and a rather small minority of ballots are cast on Election Day, then the implications... are shocking.

We should be ready for anything, but sexy times is on the menu.

Just remember where to watch for Supreme Court skulduggery:

In some closely watched battleground states, like Arizona and Florida, elections officials are allowed to start counting mail-in ballots. But in other battleground states, like Wisconsin, Michigan Pennsylvania, they're not allowed to start counting mail-in ballots until Election Day.

Speaking of which, lol:



Speaking of Gorsuch, the gang have recently issued some very interesting opinions on electoral questions.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...urt-alito.html
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/...t-ballots.html

Maybe to count votes in some states when counts are completed in other states will turn out to offend the sovereign dignity of the equal protection of all votes.