POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Shaka_Khan]

CHINA WANTS BIDEN.

I remember when the People's Republic of China wanted Trump to win during the 2016 election. While it's true that the Obama administration originally wanted to build a closer relationship with China, they changed their minds after China refused to change to a free market economy, did cyberespionage, stole industrial secrets, continued to abuse human rights, attempted to take territories, treated Obama badly when he visited there, etc. Hillary Clinton was the one who led the policy change to pivot towards the United States' Asian allies to prevent China's attempts in expansionism. Obviously, the mainland Chinese I met hated Clinton. I told them that Trump mentioned China once on unfair trade, but they ignored it. They relied on the state-controlled news media from China. They said that Trump was good for Chinese businesses because he's a Republican. At that time, Trump was much more vocal against America's allies, mostly against South Korea, Japan and Germany. And he made it almost seem like he'd withdraw the American military away from South Korea and Japan. This made the PRC love Trump even more. The American Trump supporters treated those Chinese Trump supporters as enlightened friends.

Fast forward to Trump placing tariffs on Chinese imports- I bet the people who advised Xi Jinping that Trump would be on his side got fired. Some of the Chinese who wanted Trump to win became the most anti-Trump posters in a chat room that I'm in. When it comes to diplomacy, I think things will continue, maybe escalate or repeat in similar patterns no matter who becomes the next president.

What I found interesting was that a university student from China told me that he became worried about Xi. This student was originally a supporter of Xi, saying that he was arresting numerous corrupt officials. After he changed his mind about Xi, he told me that Xi wanted to change China back to the time when China was the most powerful civilization in the world, and that Xi turned out to be an expansionist. He said that it was more dangerous because of Trump, and he believed that the two countries might someday go against each other. He said this 3 years ago.

[Hooahguy]

So a bit of election night commentary- Im not particularly surprised by some of the results tonight, especially since Florida is what it is. Sad that Lindsey Graham wasnt kicked out, but that was to be expected in deep red South Carolina. Fox just called Arizona for Biden which makes things a bit easier going forward I think for him. Definitely going to be a close election, which is also a very very sad indictment on Americans as a whole.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Definitely going to be a close election, which is also a very very sad indictment on Americans as a whole.

It's also an indictment of the Democratic Party. Talking softly, and not carrying any kind of a big stick, is obviously not working. With all the eff-ups that CoviDon has made just this year alone, should have made this election a slam dunk. It also looks like the Dems won't gain control of the Senate, making a Biden win problematic as it will be very difficult to get anything done.

But you are absolutely right about Americans as a whole. That CoviDon is a blatant racist, a misogynist, a criminal, is actively working to revoke millions of Americans health care, is actively destroying the environment, actively subverting democracy, and all those other things....and yet people vote for him by the millions, shows just how far democracy has fallen here. It's why I will be leaving as soon as I can.

[Montmorency]

What a horrifying set of results to wake up to. This is just about the worst imaginable outcome within the range of possibilities.

Looking at some of these returns, I'm sincerely shocked to report - and suspect subsequent analysis will elucidate - that Biden's expected advantage among early votes has in most (battleground) states proved minimal. That's genuinely shocking because it implies polling got Independents massively wrong. I'm eager to read about what the heck happened with early votes, because it may have just determined the course of the election. If my assumptions - in the preceding posts - about how Independents break for Biden had been correct he should have won these states.

Biden has improved Dems' performance in Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas, but only by low-single digits: not enough. Another factor in the election, perhaps related to the above, is that Trump's margins in these state imply that he basically vacuumed up almost the entire third party vote from 2016 - at least the vote for conservative third parties. Thus could both parties improve their margins (third parties are as expected at less than 2% nationally).

Wild to me that Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina could all have such similar margins, with bare majorities for the Republican.

Arizona and Nevada are leaning Dem for now and should more or less have a decisive count by the end of today. If Biden loses these he almost certainly loses the Electoral College.

Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania will probably decide the election again. The former two are currently near-ties, with a narrow Biden lead in Wisconsin and a narrow Trump lead in Michigan, but Trump leads heavily in Pennsylvania. The hope is that the early votes - which have not really begun to be counted in those states, except Michigan - will deliver them to Biden. But given the stunning closeness of early votes in other states, the uncertainty is high.

If Trump wins 2020 with an even narrower EC margin and wider popular vote loss, especially given that Biden looks set to win a majority of votes, that alone would be injurious to the social fabric. That it's Trump - well, we can see the trends plainly.

It's also an indictment of the Democratic Party. Talking softly, and not carrying any kind of a big stick, is obviously not working. With all the eff-ups that CoviDon has made just this year alone, should have made this election a slam dunk. It also looks like the Dems won't gain control of the Senate, making a Biden win problematic as it will be very difficult to get anything done.

But you are absolutely right about Americans as a whole. That CoviDon is a blatant racist, a misogynist, a criminal, is actively working to revoke millions of Americans health care, is actively destroying the environment, actively subverting democracy, and all those other things....and yet people vote for him by the millions, shows just how far democracy has fallen here. It's why I will be leaving as soon as I can.

I understand, but we'll miss you. If Trump sneaks by there will be no evading the Long Collapse of the modern world anywhere on it.

[Crandar]

In Florida, Biden performed better among whites, but Trump also improved his performance among Latinos. Predictions were again quite off, but I don't think Trump has any real chances anymore. He'll probably win in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, but that's not still enough. Trend and stats indicate that Biden's lead will increase in Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan. The cult will probably put its last hopes behind rogue electors, but that's not a feasible scenario. Still, quite embarrassing that Donald performed so well, what these elections guarantee is that the narrative of the liberal establishment of scientists and intellectuals sabotaging conservatives will continue at least until 2024. My only fear is the possibility that a mentally unstable fan of the 45th president reacts violently to the news.

As for possible explanations, in 2016, pollsters underestimated those with no college degree, but I wonder if ''shy Republicans'' played a role in the present elections. I know quite a few fans of Trump, who have been defending him since 2015 and who genuinely believe that the Democrats are Bolsheviks in disguise that still pretend that they would vote for the Libertarians and not the Republicans. Of course, that's just anecdotal experience.

[Montmorency]

What no one on the left/liberal/center has figured out--how to get voters to connect policy to candidates. (cont)

When Florida passes a $15 minimum wage and votes for Donald Trump and South Dakota votes for legal weed while being a wipeout for Trump shows people like policy but don't make any connections between that and who they vote for.

To be honest, probably the only real answer is frankly that we need more politics. In other words, we need politics to be seen as part of all of our lives all the time. That requires tons of organizing, talking among friends, etc. Maybe it works. Maybe not. But it's all I got.

There's something deep going on, because Democratic candidates are underperforming nationally, in the House and Senate. Biden actually appears to be outperforming his downballot. He's outperformed Clinton in most Florida counties. But Miami fell through for him and the majority in the House is liable to disappear entirely. Final results for the House probably 215-225 for Dems as of now (218 is majority). So Biden likely did about as well as he could have.

In Florida, Biden performed better among whites, but Trump also improved his performance among Latinos. Predictions were again quite off, but I don't think Trump has any real chances anymore. He'll probably win in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, but that's not still enough. Trend and stats indicate that Biden's lead will increase in Wisconsin, Nevada and Michigan. The cult will probably put its last hopes behind rogue electors, but that's not a feasible scenario. Still, quite embarrassing that Donald performed so well, what these elections guarantee is that the narrative of the liberal establishment of scientists and intellectuals sabotaging conservatives will continue at least until 2024. My only fear is the possibility that a mentally unstable fan of the 45th president reacts violently to the news.

As for possible explanations, in 2016, pollsters underestimated those with no college degree, but I wonder if ''shy Republicans'' played a role in the present elections. I know quite a few fans of Trump, who have been defending him since 2015 and who genuinely believe that the Democrats are Bolsheviks in disguise that still pretend that they would vote for the Libertarians and not the Republicans. Of course, that's just anecdotal experience.

If you think polling was very off, I would be extremely wary about relying on preliminary exit polling when the votes aren't all tallied and the majority of the vote was early voting (i.e. exit pollers couldn't wait at the polls to interview people).

3 points up with Latinos wouldn't be nearly enough to explain this result. As I said above, Democrats are underperforming almost everywhere and Biden is overperforming other Democrats.

But yeah, Biden probably ekes out a narrow EC win if all the count proceeds.

The fact that a candidate can win anywhere from 5 to 10 million votes over their rival and still barely win is a wasting disease on the body politic.

[ReluctantSamurai]

If Trump wins 2020 with an even narrower EC margin and wider popular vote loss, especially given that Biden looks set to win a majority of votes, that alone would be injurious to the social fabric. That it's Trump - well, we can see the trends plainly.

Any kind of marginal Biden win signifies that the people of America have not rejected "Trumpism" outright as a danger to our democracy. That Dems under performed in under ticket races and will likely not gain control of the Senate means we get another four years of The Man With the Perpetual Scowl blocking much of what Biden will attempt to do, just like he did with Obama. That that QAnon twit in Georgia won a seat in the House also doesn't bode well for the future of US politics.

Looking at some of these returns, I'm sincerely shocked to report - and suspect subsequent analysis will elucidate - that Biden's expected advantage among early votes has in most (battleground) states proved minimal. That's genuinely shocking because it implies polling got Independents massively wrong. I'm eager to read about what the heck happened with early votes, because it may have just determined the course of the election. If my assumptions - in the preceding posts - about how Independents break for Biden had been correct he should have won these states.

The folks who do polling are one of the clear losers in this election. This is the second national election in a row where they failed to even come close in predicting results.

I understand, but we'll miss you. If Trump sneaks by there will be no evading the Long Collapse of the modern world anywhere on it.

My decision to find another country to call home was hatched long before the pandemic and before the madness and mayhem of 2020. Current events have just solidified my resolve. I'm not so naive to believe there's a paradise out there somewhere where its' all peaches and cream. The Org wouldn't be rid of me that easily, in any case....

[Montmorency]

[a completely inoffensive name]

Not going to lie, my faith in Democracy is shattered. It's a failure of the American people to simultaneously vote for policies in the abstract and yet vote for politicians that would deny them those policies. If America had said we want conservatism full stop, I would accept that at least as a coherent will of the people against liberalism. But $15/hr Florida with a Trump win? legalized marijuana in multiple states with house seats flipping Red?

Even the right wing posters on here can't defend this discrepancy. It all comes down to image and personality. Republican culture seems tough, Trump is a strong individual, the Dems look weak, they appear socialist.

Even a close Biden win the midwest, which is looking more likely than not means nothing to me. It should have been more and the fact it wasn't means politics is no longer politics, its just psychology now.

[Hooahguy]

At the time of this post I am pretty confident that Biden will win the EC barring some crazy legal shenanigans. From what I am seeing, Biden is slowly expanding the margins in Michigan and Wisconsin as the mail-in ballots are counted. While the Senate is probably still under GOP control, there is still a lot of good that Biden can do with the DOJ, EPA, CDC, etc. Legislatively probably not much though, Mitch is going to go back to his old ways of blocking everything that happens.

So this is definitely a bittersweet moment. Yes, Trump will likely be gone in November. But the partisan gridlock will remain and COVID recovery will be stalled as well as Mitch has signaled he wants to swing to austerity (of course). If Peters pulls through in Michigan, which I think he will, that would give Dems an opening in 2022 to retake the Senate, but it will be an uphill battle. No idea whats happening with Maine right now, though I think Collins might somehow survive (wtf Maine). Georgia will probably be a final battle in January as that is when the runoff will be. And who knows what will happen there. But if Dems can get to 49 that would make 2022 much easier.

But there is still a lot up in the air, but the biggest takeaway is that Dems need to do more outreach to Hispanics, and also come to grips that Hispanics differ from regions and value different things, its not just about immigration issues for them. For example, the Hispanics from Central America did seem to break for Biden and helped with Arizona. But those from Cuba and Venezuela, well, the socialist accusation worked even though it held no merit. One Dem in Miami blamed BLM protests and going back and forth on them as a potential reason why Biden lost in Florida, especially with Hispanics. Though whatever Trump did, it worked in Florida. Understanding this electorate better will be key to winning in the future. No more broad brushes. Same goes for African Americans.

Another big issue was mail-in voting. A shockingly huge number of ballots were never delivered and the USPS refused to comply with an order to deliver them. I've said it before but I will say it again: the Biden campaign should have never emphasized mail-in ballots the second it was clear that the USPS was fucking with the ballot delivery and that Trump would try to invalidate those ballots. It will definitely go down as a "shooting yourself in the foot" moment.

Also can we agree that this election is likely the thing that does away with polling as a serious profession? I said that this election would be a tossup despite the rosy polls, and if it wasnt for Covid-19 then Trump would have won easily.

My own demographic (Jews) increased its support of Biden by 11 points so I guess thats a small consolation.