POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[a completely inoffensive name]

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.

They misspoke, meant to say "our approach to taking over the party is successful". Justice dems I think are still 0 wins in purple districts.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Spanberger on the House majority losses.

[edyzmedieval]

Being addicted to Twitter for this Election cycle news, I stumbled upon Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sharply criticising Spanberger's criticism, arguing that the Democratic party had almost no digital outreach compared to the Republicans who performed much much better.

Which if true, I find staggering. It's 2020 - it's a pandemic. People are home, always online. Why would you not have a digital strategy?

[Montmorency]

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.

Think about what your snide remark implies, that a Democrat is chopped liver for losing vote-share in her rematch, even though almost every Democrat lost vote-share, and she lost a lot less than most. Disparate consideration.

We've already had this conversation. The bare minimum is just that the DCCC and DLCC and rival Dems not actively undermine progressive candidates.

They misspoke, meant to say "our approach to taking over the party is successful". Justice dems I think are still 0 wins in purple districts.

How many wins up are moderate Dems in purple districts this cycle? Lordie, don't ignore the context.

If you want to know which organization has succeeded in storming purple districts this cycle, that would be Stefanik's EPAC: Republican woman recruits have surged into the double digit victories this cycle IIRC.

Maybe since they're so successful we should let them run our primaries.

[ReluctantSamurai]

They will almost never vote for Democrats as long as an issue that speaks to this anxiety over unfair subordination is salient in an election.

That sounds like white supremacy anxiety, to me....

Honestly I wish more progressive candidates were like Katie Porter who flipped her district in 2018 and held this year too. Progressive, but also doesnt say and do stupid shit.

Katie Porter rocks, but what qualifies as "stupid shit"?

Spanberger's remarks are nothing more than looking for a scapegoat, and the left wing is it. The "socialist" and "defund the police" tags were put upon the Democratic Party by Republicans. How about getting off your ass and do something to actually...you know...control the narrative rather playing defense?

Maybe since they're so successful we should let them run our primaries.

[Hooahguy]

Think about what your snide remark implies, that a Democrat is chopped liver for losing vote-share in her rematch, even though almost every Democrat lost vote-share, and she lost a lot less than most. Disparate consideration.

How many wins up are moderate Dems in purple districts this cycle? Lordie, don't ignore the context.

My point, which I thought has been very clear, was that what flies in a heavily D district wont in one that is purple, and the evidence heavily supports that. I don't think pointing that out is any more snide than the one you closed with.

As for wins, there's GA-07, IA-03, MI-11, MN-02, VA-07, UT-04, IL-14, PA-17, NY-19, NV-03, TX-07. I'm sure Im missing others.

Katie Porter rocks, but what qualifies as "stupid shit"?

Bush going to bat for Linda Sarsour for one, who is at best a polarizing figure. Or any number of Omar's past comments that people accuse of being antisemitic. While I, a Jewish person, do not believe they were (at least not outwardly), a sitting Member of Congress needs to be more careful about one's speech. My opinion anyways. My parents got mailers from the Republican Jewish Coalition tying Biden to those comments of hers so there is definitely an impact on some level.

[Montmorency]

That sounds like white supremacy anxiety, to me....

That's part of it, but the general phenomenon is "status threat." There are some people who are fine with throwing marginalized groups a bone, but they can't tolerate feeling like they aren't the dominant partner anymore.

My point, which I thought has been very clear, was that what flies in a heavily D district wont in one that is purple, and the evidence heavily supports that. I don't think pointing that out is any more snide than the one you closed with.

So let the primary electorate decide for themselves, or pick candidates to support based on indicators of quality rather than their policy agenda?

The point is that neither "run more moderates" or "run more progressives" is a winning strategy in itself.

Bush going to bat for Linda Sarsour for one, who is at best a polarizing figure. Or any number of Omar's past comments that people accuse of being antisemitic. While I, a Jewish person, do not believe they were (at least not outwardly), a sitting Member of Congress needs to be more careful about one's speech. My opinion anyways. My parents got mailers from the Republican Jewish Coalition tying Biden to those comments of hers so there is definitely an impact on some level.

Pelosi, for one, says things that are offensive to Republicans, and used in their ads, all the time. She's no backbencher, but is one of the least popular safe seat Dems in the country. Has anyone told her to cool off her rhetoric and consider the damage she may be doing to the party brand? Republicans are always looking for an opening - they would be running on a pro-police platform by default this cycle - and they're the ones one needs to campaign against, not fellow Democrats (unless one is literally running against one for office). From what I could tell Espy and Jones did a fair job of that without resorting to hippie-punching. On the other hand, apparently most purple-district Dems have to run on bashing Pelosi (see the Blue Dog challenges to her leadership in 2018). Is that just normal and expected, but the existence of a Green New Deal is an unacceptable burden for non-supporters?

We can agree that every politician is better off not making 'dumb dumb' gaffes, but the determination is subjective. If it's something recklessly polarizing with no policy dimension or recognizable advantage, such as - for a made-up example - Elizabeth Warren declaring the Republican voter to be a subhuman brute fit only for scratching dirt, we could all agree on its unhelpfulness.

I get that electeds in less-safe seats are by definition less safe, but the existence of a Democrat elsewhere as lowest common denominator can't be limiting on anyone else.

I'm interested to see how Lee Carter, the socialist in Virginia state politics who comfortably won elections in a purple district but who is a genuine slugger on Twitter it turns out, performs in 2021.

More than zero.

This isn't the ringing endorsement you seem to think it is. What are the ratios, 0/1 against 3/+++ ? How many candidates who endorse Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, or whatever, survived in purple districts?

https://twitter.com/MaxKennerly/stat...84432763539456

Here's the Dem vote margin for the 24 vulnerable Democratic House candidates compared to their GovTrack ideology score.

There's of course a million caveats here, but, in the aggregate: the more conservative their record in Congress, the worse they fared at the polls.

Six sponsors of Medicare-for-All won re-election in swing districts. SD, MT, and MS legalized marijuana. Florida raised its minimum wage. There are no majority-centrist districts; the districts are polarized, and the independents aren't centrists.

The issue is the party brand, not shit leftists say. That's not something easily fixed without being in power.

[Crandar]

Meanwhile in QAnon...

Friendship ended with Storm, now Watermark is my best friend?

[Idaho]

Biden will win the vote by a higher margin than any slate Labour has ever fielded in the UK. I just don't feel there is good evidence for this take.

Record numbers voted for trump and even greater record numbers voted against him. If the Dems had fielded anyone 20 years younger with 5% more charisma, it would have been a landslide.

[Hooahguy]

The point is that neither "run more moderates" or "run more progressives" is a winning strategy in itself.

I agree with this at face value.

We can agree that every politician is better off not making 'dumb dumb' gaffes, but the determination is subjective. If it's something recklessly polarizing with no policy dimension or recognizable advantage, such as - for a made-up example - Elizabeth Warren declaring the Republican voter to be a subhuman brute fit only for scratching dirt, we could all agree on its unhelpfulness.

I get that electeds in less-safe seats are by definition less safe, but the existence of a Democrat elsewhere as lowest common denominator can't be limiting on anyone else.

The issue is the party brand, not shit leftists say. That's not something easily fixed without being in power.

I saw one analyst say that a big issue nowadays is that because of how online everyone is, its easier to cudgel candidates with what others say because districts arent quite as insulated if you get my drift and that its easy for the party to be rebranded to fit a narrative. My original point though was that if the squad was more like Katie Porter there would be fewer ways to cudgel people.

I also agree that Pelosi does say dumb things at times too which needlessly antagonizes and I wish she wouldnt.



Anyways I am far too happy right now that Biden's win is official to bicker with allies over shit like this lol.

Where I am, cars are honking, people are cheering in the streets, its really something to behold. Might head down to the White House later to celebrate with my fellow disenfranchised citizens.

However, the shitshow will continue. If the call stands (currently under NFL review), the next level of combat shifts to the electoral college. Uncle Trumpy will call on states with Republican-dominated legislatures to ignore the popular vote, and commit their electoral votes for him. It ain't over yet.....

Im hoping it wont be an issue as after the dust has settled as I think most Republicans would recognize that this is a really really bad path to go down...
But we will cross that bridge when we get to it.

[a completely inoffensive name]

How many wins up are moderate Dems in purple districts this cycle?

More than zero.