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Thread: POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

  1. #991
    Member Member Crandar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Does anyone here have any family members or friends who fell into Qanon? Would be interested in hearing those stories.
    No family member, of course, but it's interesting to note that the QAnon conspiracy has infected Greece as well. There's a trending topic in social media about Chinese troops being stationed in Canada and Mexico, ready to intervene if Biden is not inaugurated as the 46th president. Thankfully, the US army remains loyal to Trump, so the Commies have no chance. It's the second hottest topic after the controversy surrounding the fact that the Greek government sold the legal rights of the Greek alphabet to Bill Gates for the development of the 5G network. The funny thing is that we actually scammed Microsoft. We had already sold the copyright for the Greek language/alphabet to Bill Gates, so that the latter can invent the dyadic system used in computers. Now that we mentioned language, did you know that ancient Greek was about to become the official language of the US, but lost in Congress just for a single vote (I think the culprit was a Jewish deputy, colour me surprised)? Not that there's much difference anyway, English being a Greek idiom. Hello comes from the Mycenaean άλο, which means sea and was shouted by the Mycenaean sailors that discovered and civilised the British Isles.
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    The plot continues to thicken, as apparent confirmation comes that gun nut Rep. Boebert was the one who led a large group in a tour of the Capitol prior to the riot, a charge that she denies. Will be fascinating to see where this goes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    The plot continues to thicken, as apparent confirmation comes that gun nut Rep. Boebert was the one who led a large group in a tour of the Capitol prior to the riot, a charge that she denies. Will be fascinating to see where this goes.
    What would it take to depose insurrectionist officials? Court, or House majority, or super majority?

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    Tricky question. An expulsion through the House would require a 2/3 vote which will likely not happen because the GOP is terrible. However if there are charges brought through the justice system against her then thats a different story and much easier way to remove her.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Will be fascinating to see where this goes.
    It will. Just as fascinating will be how the less radical in Congress do post-Trump (damn it's good to be able to say POST-TRUMP) starting in 2022. A fore-shadowing?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...-years/617715/

    “We’re about to see a whole political party do a large-scale version of ‘New phone, who dis?’” says Sarah Isgur, a former top spokesperson for the Trump Justice Department. “It will be like that boyfriend you should never have dated—the mistake that shall not be mentioned.”
    People who spent years coddling the president will recast themselves as voices of conscience, or whitewash their relationship with Trump altogether. Policy makers who abandoned their dedication to “fiscal responsibility” and “limited government” will rediscover a passion for these timeless conservative principles. Some may dress up their revisionism in the rhetoric of “healing” and “moving forward,” but the strategy will be clear—to escape accountability by taking advantage of America’s notoriously short political memory.

    Indeed, the narrative now forming in some GOP circles presents Trump as a secondary figure who presided over an array of important accomplishments thanks to the wisdom and guidance of the Republicans in his orbit. In these accounts, Trump’s race-baiting, corruption, and cruel immigration policies—not to mention his attempts to overturn an election—are treated as minor subplots, rather than defining features.

    Terry Sullivan, who ran Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign in 2016, told me he was unimpressed by this sudden rush to righteous indignation. “The newfound outrage from former Trump supporters rings a bit hollow, given how quiet most were during Charlottesville and countless other escapades,” he said. “Forty-seven months of blind loyalty followed by one month of conscience doesn’t earn you much more than the Mick Mulvaney profile-in-courage award.”
    Here's the list of Senate seats up for election in 2022:

    https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...#U.S._Senate_2

    The list of House seats up for election in 2022:

    https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...lections,_2022
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 01-18-2021 at 20:07.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    The plot continues to thicken, as apparent confirmation comes that gun nut Rep. Boebert was the one who led a large group in a tour of the Capitol prior to the riot, a charge that she denies. Will be fascinating to see where this goes.
    Proving intent will be extremely tough. I imagine she'll either face no criminal charges, or else be found innocent.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    It will. Just as fascinating will be how the less radical in Congress do post-Trump (damn it's good to be able to say POST-TRUMP) starting in 2022. A fore-shadowing?

    [...]

    Here's the list of Senate seats up for election in 2022:
    https://ballotpedia.org/United_State...#U.S._Senate_2
    The only really vulnerable GOP seats seems to be in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile Warnock (GA) and Kelly (AZ) are potentially vulnerable on the Dem side. Not going to be an easy year which is why I think that the GOP will simultaneously try to whitewash the Trump years while also trying to get the Trump base back. My predictions are that there wont be enough GOP to vote to convict in the Senate which gives the GOP hope to retain at least a portion of the Trump base. Guess it remains to be seen.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Proving intent will be extremely tough. I imagine she'll either face no criminal charges, or else be found innocent.

    True, unless there's a smoking gun somewhere. I foresee there being a vote in the House to expel her but I think it will fail due to the GOP being sniveling cowards.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    The only really vulnerable GOP seats seems to be in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Meanwhile Warnock (GA) and Kelly (AZ) are potentially vulnerable on the Dem side. Not going to be an easy year which is why I think that the GOP will simultaneously try to whitewash the Trump years while also trying to get the Trump base back. My predictions are that there wont be enough GOP to vote to convict in the Senate which gives the GOP hope to retain at least a portion of the Trump base. Guess it remains to be seen.
    Richard Burr in NC is retiring. Best case scenario would be a surprise pick up there. A good Dem turnout would mean +3 in the Senate which is a big deal, I wouldn't downplay it.
    Also, check Hawley's approval in Missouri since 1/6. If Roy Blunt has to pick whether to back his fellow Senator or not it could kill GOP turnout and give Dems an opportunity there.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Richard Burr in NC is retiring. Best case scenario would be a surprise pick up there. A good Dem turnout would mean +3 in the Senate which is a big deal, I wouldn't downplay it.
    Also, check Hawley's approval in Missouri since 1/6. If Roy Blunt has to pick whether to back his fellow Senator or not it could kill GOP turnout and give Dems an opportunity there.
    A lot would have to go really right for Dems to pull of those two. The best chance would be for an intra-GOP struggle that tears it apart and leads Trump to lead his die-hards away. I think the impeachment conviction vote will be the biggest indicator of what will happen with regard to where the GOP is headed. If only 3-4 of them vote to convict I think we can reliably say that the GOP wont try to distance itself from Trump.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 01-18-2021 at 22:09.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    If only 3-4 of them vote to convict I think we can reliably say that the GOP wont try to distance itself from Trump.
    Approval ratings of Trump are dipping hard since 1/6 among independents, hasn't been this low since Jan of 2018. The crazy may be starting to turning off people the GOP need to win in traditionally non-competitive races.
    If the GOP votes to acquit and most remain Trump loyalists, their image continues to suffer and quite probably internal leadership will be run by the crazies which doesn't bode well for government in the immediate but in all honesty these people are not able to properly manage the Republican Party as a competitive institution.

    If enough of the GOP convicts Trump, the entire base becomes fractured. They are hitching their wagon to a guy who has been de-platformed and getting more unpopular by the day. Assuming the economy comes roaring back in 2021 and Biden's approval rating soars, you know the GOP strategy of 'endorsed by Trump' becomes dead in the water because who wants to go back to the days of 2020? It's like if the GOP in 2012 theoretically pushed for Jeb Bush in 2012.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    I wish I was as optimistic as you were. Yes his approval ratings are bad now, but if they are still as bad in another month or two then I will start to believe. My worry is that the GOP will look at the GA runoffs where the Trump base was demoralized and see that as an indication that they need to lean back into Trumpism to get the base excited again. Also too many Republicans are worried about primary challenges for not being sufficiently pro-Trump. So what would the game plan be from here? Acquit Trump in the Senate, and use him and a promise of running in 2024 to whip up the base again for the midterms. Of course, Trump would have to be willing to go along with this plan. It would definitely be risky and from their standpoint its a big gamble: on one hand they could sever Trump from the party and a chance at 2024 completely, or they could take the chance at using him to whip up the Trump base to get back into power, which might backfire. Unfortunately though I have a feeling I know which way they will go.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 01-18-2021 at 23:31.
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    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    The past four years have been so exhausting I've forgotten about some of this.

    But hey, only 26 hours to go right?
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    My bet, all along, is that the GOP will move to "Trump Harder" having fallen short this past round.

    Perhaps, after the events of the 6th, the party will fracture over the course of the next year or so. It would probably be for the best.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    My bet, all along, is that the GOP will move to "Trump Harder" having fallen short this past round.

    Perhaps, after the events of the 6th, the party will fracture over the course of the next year or so. It would probably be for the best.
    I agree on this, the 'old guard' republicans like McConnell are clearly ready to dump Trump but the ground swell is of the Tea Party>Trump>post Trump movement what will likely elect even more extreme people in the midterms next year. The only way out of it I can imagine is if the Dems make a concerted effort to prove the Trump-clan fears wrong. This would mean very strong anti-China stance, not making identity politics central over substance, and not relaxing the enforcement of immigration rules. It is strange to see how the first true 'church going' president in a long time is considered un-Christian because he's a democrat, pro-choice, and catholic.

    This is also compounded by the current ideological rabbit holes people go into online. Who would have predicted 20 years ago with the information revolution that the internet has brought on that so many people would fall hook line and sinker for essentially the youtube and journalistic equivalent of the the craziest tabloids written by the guy on the side of the road with the 'end is nigh sign.'

    This would of course make Biden extremely vulnerable to the progressive wing of the Dems that are already irritated at this moderate administration and would hurt Harris's election efforts in 2024 if Biden does intend to only do one term as expected.

    I'm curious as to the whole list of people being pardoned tomorrow

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    well considering that Fox News just fired part of the team that called Arizona for Biden, I think we know which way the wind is blowing...
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    Can't resist commemorating the closing of the Trump era with this final great burn:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Joe Biden is a solid speaker. Not great, but solid.

    And after the last four years it sounded like poetry.

    I am hopeful that we have someone who will at least attempt to move forward. Here's to the administration's success in so doing.
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    I didn't watch anything from the inauguration until late tonight. Work had CNN in the cafeteria but I didn't watch, today was a good day cause it was the first day in a while I didn't have to worry about something bad happening.

    At lunch as I sipped my pineapple juice, I opened twitter and saw a flurry of angry retweets from Ben Shapiro. I smiled and knew that we were now in good hands.
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  21. #1011
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    If America wants to have any real international standing, they really do need to impeach Donald - else every Diplomat will be very aware that 4 years is a very short time and there's a non-zero chance things will again turn. Sure even if Donald was prevented from returning to office Ivanka might decide that she's got the experience required (photogenic, white, sociopath) to make it to the top and she might just manage to get a coalition to get there but even she would be nowhere near as bad and I imagine the International stage would view her as someone they could do business with.

    Biden's speech appeared heartfelt - but the cynic in me thinks he's been a politician for 50 years so I would expect he can fake some emotion. The rhetoric was pretty anodyne and was almost interchangeable from what many of his predecessors (Compassionate conservatism / Yes We Can / It's the Economy Stupid / Kinder, Gentler Nation and so on).

    I hope he chooses to be almost the "no party President" - it seems agreed he only wants one term so doesn't need to go for personal glory. And if he can frame things as a win for the country rather than for a specific party he might have more chance at getting Congress to pass some meaningful laws. This would be super tough with baiting from both within and without but he could say "save it for the 2024 campaign". A tougher question is - are there enough areas of mutual benefit that he'd get the numbers to pass things?

    Failing that, just stick to the tried and tested putting all legislation in the Funding Bill and play Federal Chicken.

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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Unsure if this was a good thing or not:

    https://www.vox.com/2021/1/20/222411...sts-low-energy

    OTOH, it's good that there were no more conflicts, as it's likely more people, both LEO's and protesters might have gotten killed. Or it just means that the extremists are not yet jihadists willing to go on a suicide mission, and are just biding time until law enforcement relaxes. I still expect a kidnapping/attempt or assassination of a government official in the next six months to happen. Just because their first attempt (Gov. Whitmer) failed doesn't mean they won't try again...
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    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Unsure if this was a good thing or not:

    https://www.vox.com/2021/1/20/222411...sts-low-energy

    OTOH, it's good that there were no more conflicts, as it's likely more people, both LEO's and protesters might have gotten killed. Or it just means that the extremists are not yet jihadists willing to go on a suicide mission, and are just biding time until law enforcement relaxes. I still expect a kidnapping/attempt or assassination of a government official in the next six months to happen. Just because their first attempt (Gov. Whitmer) failed doesn't mean they won't try again...
    Perhaps biding their time but its so hard to tell, especially with a Justice Department that is now vowing to crack down on those groups. Now that their leader is gone and cowed (the Proud Boys called Trump "a total failure"). I guess we will see.
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    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    If America wants to have any real international standing, they really do need to impeach Donald - else every Diplomat will be very aware that 4 years is a very short time and there's a non-zero chance things will again turn. Sure even if Donald was prevented from returning to office Ivanka might decide that she's got the experience required (photogenic, white, sociopath) to make it to the top and she might just manage to get a coalition to get there but even she would be nowhere near as bad and I imagine the International stage would view her as someone they could do business with.
    This has been a problem since Carter. Prior to that time, there was a tradition of "politics stops at the water's edge" that had guided US foreign policy. While we were always more changeable and prone to fits of moralism over realpolitik, there was a somewhat steadier stance to our foreign affairs. Carter, who thought we should center our foreign policy on human rights rather than purely on the national interest, shifted our stance on a number of issues. Reagan backlashed against this, and to an extent we have been "see-sawing" ever since. Carter's approach was inarguable more in line with Western morality, but also created different problems. For sure, our variability since has caused concern among our allies and others. Trump's efforts -- even more "cowboy" than Dubya or Reagan and more ham-fisted than any of the other 45 in my opinion -- have certainly made things worse for the near future.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Biden's speech appeared heartfelt - but the cynic in me thinks he's been a politician for 50 years so I would expect he can fake some emotion. The rhetoric was pretty anodyne and was almost interchangeable from what many of his predecessors (Compassionate conservatism / Yes We Can / It's the Economy Stupid / Kinder, Gentler Nation and so on).
    You may be right. Biden is an old-school pol and a party man of long standing. And, truly, an inaugural speech is talking in "poetry" while the governance to follow must happen in "prose." We shall see how he fares. I will note that his reputation for working with others and for caring about the common person is pretty consistently touted. It was not created just for this campaign.

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    I hope he chooses to be almost the "no party President" - it seems agreed he only wants one term so doesn't need to go for personal glory. And if he can frame things as a win for the country rather than for a specific party he might have more chance at getting Congress to pass some meaningful laws. This would be super tough with baiting from both within and without but he could say "save it for the 2024 campaign". A tougher question is - are there enough areas of mutual benefit that he'd get the numbers to pass things?
    There most certainly are. The worry is that the more ideologically-driven wings of both parties will stop compromise efforts from happening. There SHOULD be strong centrist support for a well framed COVID-mitigation set of legislative efforts as well as for infrastructure improvements and for reasonable efforts to mitigate the "wealth gap." For the latter I hope they have the perspicacity to see that taxing income is not the best route to that rebalance.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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  25. #1015
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    "They're thieves! They're thieves! They're filthy little thieves! Where is it? Where is it? They stole it from us, our precious. Curse them! WE hates them! It's ours it is, and we wants it! We wants it, we needs it. Must have the precious. They stole it from us. Sneaky little hobbitses. Wicked, tricksy, false!"
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ondor-election

    “Gondor has no king,” the lawsuit states, a footnote providing an explanation of the woeful fate of Tolkien’s entirely imaginary land populated by dragons, wizards, hobbits and elves, all threatened by a baleful Dark Lord backed up by an army of orcs and with famously little time for due democratic process.

    The suit explains how Gondor’s throne was empty and its rightful kings in exile, presumably positing the idea that Trump is the true king of America – a land happily monarch-free since 1776.

    “This analogy is applicable since there is now in Washington DC a group of individuals calling themselves the president, vice-president and Congress who have no rightful claim to govern the American people,” the case states.

    The lawsuit then suggests that America’s version of the stewards of Gondor should be selected from among – surprise, surprise – Trump’s cabinet members, who should run the country.

    High Plains Drifter

  26. #1016
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    Today Rand Paul introduced a motion that would have dismissed the impeachment trial. It was voted down 55-45, with only Rebublicans Romney, Collins, Murkowski, Toomey, and Sasse voting with the Dems on this. I guess we now know with reasonable certainty that impeachment will fail. Of course McConnell refuses to entertain the idea of impeachment earlier saying it was too soon, only to then turn around to vote to dismissing saying its too late to do it now.
    On the Path to the Streets of Gold: a Suebi AAR
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  27. #1017
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    I thought that having the spectre of Donald 2024 would have been a disaster - but of course him starting a third party purely to damage Republicans that had crossed him is a bigger threat. Even if he couldn't run himself he'd enjoy all the rallies and spouting bullshit which is his favourite part anyway. And he can continue this threat for as long as his attention span allows.

    I fear that any meaningful change that isn't done by Executive Order is going to be nigh on impossible (ban on Feds using private prisons - good... Obama did the same and it was reversed... Oh). Perhaps investing in infrastructure can be positioned as another way of funnelling money to the GOP funders so might go ahead.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
    Science flies you to the moon, religion flies you into buildings.
    "If you can't trust the local kleptocrat whom you installed by force and prop up with billions of annual dollars, who can you trust?" Lemur
    If you're not a liberal when you're 25, you have no heart. If you're not a conservative by the time you're 35, you have no brain.
    The best argument against democracy is a five minute talk with the average voter. Winston Churchill

  28. #1018
    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: Trump Thread

    McConnell seems like the consummate politician - completely without any guiding principle or idea other than preserving potential future power/influence.
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

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