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Thread: POTUS/General Election Thread 2020

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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default POTUS/General Election Thread 2020

    Well here we are. Trump vs. Biden. Just under 5 months and it is election day.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    5 months
    Whoa-OH, we're halfway the-ere!

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    Senior Member Senior Member Idaho's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    The only question is, what will happen when trump gets re-elected after the inevitable, widespread voter fraud, fake news and dirty election tactics?
    "The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney

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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    May you live in interesting times: Ancient chinese curse.

    Few times more interesting than that of Paris Commune 2: Seattle Boogaloo.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Unless the electoral suppression/fraud is on a level heretofore unseen - which to be fair isn't an outside possibility - then there is a solid basis for projecting the election not even at the standard pre-pandemic 3-to-5-point Biden win, but as a genuine 10+-point blowout. If this happens it will be due to Trump's epic Idi Amin-tier maleficent sadomasochism.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    This will be such an important election for the whole world, I cannot stress this enough. I don't think people have ever ever been so interested and invested in an American Presidential election.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Its also looking good for the Dems retaking the Senate, with Greenfield now polling ahead of Ernst. Would be pretty great if Ernst lost her seat. Even with Doug Jones losing his seat in Alabama, which is extremely likely to happen, it looks like it will be a 52-48 split in Dem favor. Fingers crossed. Qualifications aside, if Doug Jones became the new AG, as the optics of “I took your senate seat and now I’m taking your old AG seat” are hilarious.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I think there will be a lot of first-time voters in this election, particularly after the whole unrest in the past three weeks or so.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I don't think people have ever ever been so interested and invested in an American Presidential election.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    https://projects.economist.com/us-20...cast/president

    Economist gave a 98% chance to Democrats.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

    Five Thirty Eight has it at 50.1 right now.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    They said it was similar odds in 2016 too, though of course things are different now.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    though of course things are different now.
    Not the least of which is that Fearless Leader is now the incumbent. The 'what have you done for me lately' mentality tends to prevail when voters go to the polls to elect a new prez. Folks who study that sort of thing repeatedly point this out. Not sayin' that it's an automatic for Biden. People at either end of the voter spectrum aren't going to change their opinion much, so it comes down to those in the center. SARS-2 is still going to be running rampant come November, and the economy will still be in the toilet if not headed straight for the sewer. So who's to blame? And just as important, who can fix it?
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-19-2020 at 19:44.
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    Ja mata, TosaInu Forum Administrator edyzmedieval's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    They said it was similar odds in 2016 too, though of course things are different now.
    There is however one significant difference, and it showed in the primary when Sanders lost so many votes he won back in 2016 - Hillary Clinton was really, really disliked by the general public.

    Biden on the other hand has a significant boost of appeal especially with moderates and with many Republicans as well.
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    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    270towin.com has it too close to call. While Trump would have to get more of the 86 votes they list as toss-ups than does Biden, the task is not impossible. Trump's disapproval rating is NOT at the lowest ebb of his Presidency and was, until the riots, actually rebounding positively during the Coronavirus re-opening phase efforts.

    FL, NC, PA, WI are still too close to call and while MI is leaning Biden narrowly, Ohio is leaning Trump by a narrow margin. As a FL resident, I will tell you that a repeat of the Santoris victory margin by Trump in the upcoming general is a distinct possibility. Florida has been decided into the "red" column by a very few thousand votes on numerous occasions.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I think Wisconsin and Arizona are going blue this year but as for the rest, its anybody's game. I do however think that PA is looking more favorably than that map suggests since the polling average has been steady with Biden +5.6. An upset is always possible but its different this time around: Trump is the incumbent, Covid isnt going away any time soon, and the Sunbelt has seen a huge increase across the board, so the "botching the response" narrative is an easy one to push. Ive heard some people cautioning against becoming complacent, but Ive literally seen nobody being so.

    Edit: I also wonder how Florida being ravaged by Covid will impact things. A backlash against the GOP for closing too slow/pushing reopening too soon? Drive turnout down? Fall into the sea finally? All three? Its 4.5 months to election so a lot can happen between now and then.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-21-2020 at 06:01.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    The RNC has announced its intent to recycle the 2016 Republican platform and Donald Trump's campaign site has no policy information. The precipitate of grievance has been achieved.

    At his rally, an applause line.
    President Trump on coronavirus testing: “I said to my people, slow the testing down, please."
    The crowd goes wild.

    Trump can never win less than 40% of the vote, but there just haven't been many indicators that there are quite enough degenerates to turn out for him. As I've continually reiterated, Trump mustn't lose any supporters on net merely in order to repeat a break-even Electoral College victory. It's unclear that there have been enough Republican "Never-Trump" converts over 3 years to make up for the documented drain of suburban support and among white and older demographics, and the reciprocal consolidation on the Democratic coalition. If there have not been, then a Trump reelection would be a mathematical improbability.

    As to the point that Biden's leads in the swing states are statistically marginal, this is true. Yet at the same time the consistency of his polling leads to date puts Biden ahead of every other challenger since, ever? The only other incumbent presidents to mirror Trump's approval level around this time were Jimmy Carter and George HW Bush, to my knowledge. Will Trump be closing the gap soon?

    The September polling during the official campaign season, post-conventions, will be the most probative. The government has ostensibly chosen death with regard to the pandemic and economic crisis, so we'll have to see the effects of that over the summer.

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    270towin.com has it too close to call. While Trump would have to get more of the 86 votes they list as toss-ups than does Biden, the task is not impossible. Trump's disapproval rating is NOT at the lowest ebb of his Presidency and was, until the riots, actually rebounding positively during the Coronavirus re-opening phase efforts.
    Just to be pedantic, his all-term peak was at the beginning of April. If you're referring to the most recent high, that was a week before the Floyd killing.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    The Dems have a lot of work to do. Just choosing an African American woman as a running mate isn't going to be enough, if this discussion is any indication:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...e-woods-325641

    Most of my audience was Black—save for a few white men with their collared shirts tucked into khakis—but this wasn’t the target demographic I had imagined for this article. These were professional, affluent Black people. These were Black people who spent Sunday afternoons sipping Mimosas and playing spades. These were Black people who were going to vote.
    Griffith will vote this November. But she isn’t excited about it. And truth be told, she doesn’t know anyone who is. “I bet our numbers come up, because nobody liked Hillary Clinton, but I don’t think they come up much. And I know they don’t get back to those record numbers from Obama,” Griffith said of Black voter turnout. “We look at Joe Biden and see more of the same. It’s about the era he came up. It’s about his identity—he’s a rich, old white man. What are his credentials to us, other than Obama picking him? It’s nice that he worked with Obama. But let’s keep it real: That was a political calculation. Obama thought he needed a white man to get elected, just like Biden thinks he needs a Black woman to get elected. We can see through that.”
    These sentiments resurfaced in almost every conversation I had. First, that Biden choosing a woman of color might actually irritate, not appease, Black voters. Second, that the inferno of June would flicker by summer’s end and fade entirely by November. And third, that Biden does little to inspire a wary Black electorate that views him as the status quo personified. It was thoroughly convincing. Here were high-information voters, giving their personal opinions while also analyzing the feeling of their community, all making the same points in separate conversations.
    “There’s no excitement for Biden,” Moore said. “Trump can get his people riled up. Biden can’t. That’s why there’s all this talk of putting a Black woman on the ticket. But that’s not going to help him win.” Sitting in a chair nearby, ERIC BENJAMIN snickered. “He’s just the lesser of two evils.”
    “Biden’s a politician, same as the rest of them, same as Trump. But at least with Trump you know where he stands,” he said. “If we were sitting here, me and you, and you’re pretending we’re friends, but then behind my back, you act like you don’t even know me, that’s the worst. I’d much rather you just tell me to my face that we’re not friends. That’s Trump. I respect that. The Democrats always be acting like we’re friends.”
    “Now, the Democratic Party takes us for granted. But it has always taken us for granted. So, it is what it is. But I’ll be for whoever is against Trump. Am I excited about Joe Biden? Is he going to make my life better? No. But I need to send a message that Trump is unacceptable.”
    If you talk to younger people, they’re not going to automatically look past his history just because he was Obama’s VP. And the party had better realize that. He had better realize that. You know, that stuff on ‘The Breakfast Club,’ suggesting we’ve got to vote for him because we’re Black—young people do not respond to that.” “Exactly,” Yancey said. “It’s not a question of them voting for Trump. It’s a question of them not voting at all.”
    The cross-section of those at that gathering was interesting: an ex-cop, a couple of local magistrates, a retired school teacher, a couple of real-estate agents, and an ex-convict. Sleepy Joe better pay attention...
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    In the article they state that Biden should not have committed to picking a woman VP. I actually agree with that. This sounds harsh, but I dont think we are ready as a country for a woman on the ticket. The average American voter has too much unconscious sexism for that to happen. Like how people still ask if a woman is too emotional to lead which isnt only a dumb question since men get just as emotional, its also sexist as hell. And its sad.

    Anyways, the most recent VP poll has the two front runners, Harris and Warren, with high unfavorables as they have favorables. And the rest of the people on the list are mostly unknowns with many of them having ~50% of respondents having no idea who they are. I really like Harris, I think shes very well spoken and very accomplished, Im just skeptical of her in the VP spot due to her record as DA/AG which has been overall good and progressive, but some dark spots that cloud her record and I think unfairly gives her a bad name. Plus as the article clearly states, probably not the best choice if you want to boost turnout in the Black community. To clarify though, I do think theres a lot of misinformation about her record but as we saw in 2016, it might be too much and hobble Biden's campaign. As the saying goes, "A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth can get its boots on."

    Personally I am rooting for Congresswoman Karen Bass who recently made the list as being vetted. Shes a great congresswoman, chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, sits on Judiciary and Foreign Affairs, just a really great record all around. And none of the baggage that Harris or Val Demmings have in terms of law enforcement.

    Anyways, the latest poll out from Siena College/The New York Times (A+ rating from 538) looks pretty good for the swing states, but not good enough:

    FLORIDA:
    Biden 47% (+6)
    Trump 41%

    ARIZONA:
    Biden 48% (+7)
    Trump 41%

    NORTH CAROLINA:
    Biden 49% (+9)
    Trump 40%

    PENNSYLVANIA:
    Biden 50% (+10)
    Trump 40%

    MICHIGAN:
    Biden 47% (+11)
    Trump 36%

    WISCONSIN:
    Biden 49% (+11)
    Trump 38%
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-26-2020 at 00:27.
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    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    In the article they state that Biden should not have committed to picking a woman VP. I actually agree with that. This sounds harsh, but I dont think we are ready as a country for a woman on the ticket.
    I disagree. Even Republicans are willing, remember Palin ?
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Wow, it's been a year-and-a-half but someone has decided Trump's was being excessively-naughty with the impoundment on another occasion.
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...190949915.html

    A federal appeals court on Friday ruled against the administration of United States President Donald Trump in its transfer of $2.5bn from military construction projects to build sections of the US border wall with Mexico, ruling it illegally sidestepped Congress, which gets to decide how to use the funds.

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    The Dems have a lot of work to do. Just choosing an African American woman as a running mate isn't going to be enough, if this discussion is any indication:
    That's a very pessimistic slice of the Black upper-middle class. As a focus group I'm not sure what it really tells us. In the end - correct me if I missed something - but every person the author interviewed there affirmed their vote for Biden in November.

    In the 2018 midterms black turnout was higher than it had been in perhaps generations. It's hard to imagine that relative enthusiasm would suddenly evaporate in a few months. And in the latest Siena/NYT poll (see also Hooah's post), the results are about as grim for Trump as they've ever been. In that poll, only 10% of black respondents - registered voters engaged enough to respond to a major poller, so comparable to the Politico piece's subjects - offered disapproval of Biden, compared to half of white respondents.
    https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/up...0_84731937.pdf
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/25/u...legrounds.html

    It's not just that poll either. Polls for the past month have been overwhelmingly favorable to Biden, to the point of opening the possibility of a Democratic EC landslide.
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-is-slipping/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...uld-disappear/






    As Alex Burns puts it, "Biden isn’t ahead by double digits because of his own runaway popularity. It’s because he’s broadly acceptable as an alternative to a strongly disliked incumbent." It's the economy, stupid. And the pandemic, and the civil unrest, and all the crimes and scandals and failures piled atop each other like a chain of tortoises. Now, if all that shit costs Trump 5 percentage points off his baseline it's still a horrifying sign for our country, but as far as the election itself goes it's better news than most would have allowed one to contemplate as of a year ago.


    [Interesting tangent: In the NYT poll above the disapproval for BLM is roughly the same - similarly low - as that for the police.]


    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Anyways, the most recent VP poll has the two front runners, Harris and Warren, with high unfavorables as they have favorables. And the rest of the people on the list are mostly unknowns with many of them having ~50% of respondents having no idea who they are. I really like Harris, I think shes very well spoken and very accomplished, Im just skeptical of her in the VP spot due to her record as DA/AG which has been overall good and progressive, but some dark spots that cloud her record and I think unfairly gives her a bad name.
    All that I read suggested she prioritized adopting a more conservative law-and-order persona (and we know what that means) than was justified electorally, as may have been discussed here. One can weight different factors, or emphasize aspects of her more recent career trajectory, but overall I wouldn't call her LE record progressive.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 06-27-2020 at 03:24.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    I disagree. Even Republicans are willing, remember Palin ?
    Just because they too are willing doesnt mean it was a great idea electorally. Palin was a terrible terrible choice as we all know. But what I am trying to say is that woman candidates are largely still unfairly treated compared to male candidates.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    All that I read suggested she prioritized adopting a more conservative law-and-order persona (and we know what that means) than was justified electorally, as may have been discussed here. One can weight different factors, or emphasize aspects of her more recent career trajectory, but overall I wouldn't call her LE record progressive.
    I think this take is missing major context of what was going on at the time and a "tough on crime" stance was electorally justified. In 2004 when she first took office as DA of San Francisco, they were in the middle of a major crime wave with a homicide rate of 11.57. By her last year in office, 2010, the homicide rate was 5.86. So basically cutting it in half. Her predecessor Terence Hallinan (who was regarded as super progressive) had a terrible conviction rate of just 50% which frankly means that he was pretty bad at his job. Harris on the other hand had a conviction rate of the mid to high 80 percentage range. But I digress. I can list you 40 different actions she's taken as either DA or AG that were pretty significant progressive initiatives. Things like the country's first Back on Track program that reduced recidivism and was later adopted by other jurisdictions across the country. As DA she created the LGBT Hate crimes unit, the environmental justice unit, and the child sexual assault unit. As AG, Harris created the Bureau of Children’s Justice; Division of Recidivism Reduction and Re-Entry; Mortgage Fraud Strike Force; Human Trafficking Work Group; Racial & Identity Profiling Advisory Board; eCrime Unit; Privacy Enforcement & Protection Unit. The list goes on and on if you want me to expand on this.

    Of course there will be missteps. Nobody in the DA or AG position has a spotless record. I think it comes with the territory. For example, progressive Keith Ellison is the current AG of Minnesota and we all know whats been going on there. Where I think Harris tends to trip up on is explaining some of the actions shes taken. Like let's take the whole truancy thing. Despite being on the books as a law since the 70's, shes still being criticized for it even though a lot of those criticisms are being made with incorrect or missing information. But the thing is, studies show that fighting truancy helps kids stay in school which then helps prevent them from ending up in prison or worse. In SF, 94% of homicide victims under the age of 25 were dropouts. Where Harris was involved was refining the current law to make it so the school district could better identify at-risk children and find the best times to intervene to make sure they stayed in school. It wasnt about throwing parents in jail, it was about making sure that schools, students, and parents had the resources to fix the truancy issue with harsher penalties only being used as a last resort. But the narrative is already past this sort of explanation and I think a big part of it is Harris' inability to effectively counter these sorts of misconceptions. That being said, I do think she is the frontrunner for the VP spot (its clear she really wants it despite being the best at hiding it *cough cough Stacey Abrams*) since shes the only one who seems to be doing events with not only Joe, but his wife and top advisors too. So I guess we will see in the next month who gets picked in the end but my money is on Harris.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-27-2020 at 05:11.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    That's a very pessimistic slice of the Black upper-middle class. As a focus group I'm not sure what it really tells us. In the end - correct me if I missed something - but every person the author interviewed there affirmed their vote for Biden in November.
    Pessimistic...yes. Every interviewee voting for Biden...yes. But my main take was for all those blacks who won't vote at all because as a 78 year-old, rich white man, Biden is just 'more of the same'.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Pessimistic...yes. Every interviewee voting for Biden...yes. But my main take was for all those blacks who won't vote at all because as a 78 year-old, rich white man, Biden is just 'more of the same'.
    Same question can be asked about how many young people wont vote for the same reason. Or how many Hispanics, Asians, etc. I dont think its a question that pertains only to one demographic. But at the same time how many are voting for him because hes a fundamentally decent person, especially with the dumpster fire thats been going on in the White House for the past 3.5 years? One moment that stands out to me is his interaction at the New York Times with Jacquelyn, the elevator operator. The video of that encounter had 6 times more views than the video the NYT put out about the candidates they did endorse, Warren and Klobuchar. Of course he wont be pleasing everyone. I think its unrealistic to expect that any candidate this cycle would. There was no Obama-level candidate despite the huge field. But I think a lot of people underestimate the appeal of a compassionate leader who has known great personal loss at a time when the whole nation is going through great loss. So no, Biden most likely wont be an agent of huge change and I think he will only serve the one term. But I do think he will stabilize things and make the ground fertile for better Dem candidates to succeed moving forward.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    White supremacist officers fired over genocidal rantings. There's a recording out there too.
    https://www.newsobserver.com/news/bu...243779512.html

    Three members of a North Carolina police department have been fired after a department audit of a video recording captured one of the officers saying a civil war was necessary to wipe Black people off the map and that he was ready.
    [...]
    At the 46-minute mark of the video, Piner and Gilmore began talking from their respective cars, at which time Piner criticized the department, saying its only concern was “kneeling down with the black folks.” About 30 minutes later, Piner received a phone call from Moore, according to the investigation, a segment in which Moore referred to a Black female as a “negro.” He also referred to the woman by using a racial slur. He repeated the use of the slur in describing a Black magistrate, and Moore used a gay slur to describe the magistrate as well.

    Later, according to the investigation, Piner told Moore that he feels a civil war is coming and that he is ready. Piner said he was going to buy a new assault rifle, and soon “we are just going to go out and start slaughtering them (expletive)” Blacks. “I can’t wait. God, I can’t wait.” Moore responded that he wouldn’t do that.

    Piner then told Moore that he felt a civil war was needed to “wipe them off the (expletive) map. That’ll put them back about four or five generations.” Moore told Piner he was “crazy,” and the recording stopped a short time later.
    " Negro magistrate" etc.


    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    I think this take is missing major context of what was going on at the time and a "tough on crime" stance was electorally justified. In 2004 when she first took office as DA of San Francisco, they were in the middle of a major crime wave with a homicide rate of 11.57. By her last year in office, 2010, the homicide rate was 5.86. So basically cutting it in half. Her predecessor Terence Hallinan (who was regarded as super progressive) had a terrible conviction rate of just 50% which frankly means that he was pretty bad at his job. Harris on the other hand had a conviction rate of the mid to high 80 percentage range. But I digress. I can list you 40 different actions she's taken as either DA or AG that were pretty significant progressive initiatives. Things like the country's first Back on Track program that reduced recidivism and was later adopted by other jurisdictions across the country. As DA she created the LGBT Hate crimes unit, the environmental justice unit, and the child sexual assault unit. As AG, Harris created the Bureau of Children’s Justice; Division of Recidivism Reduction and Re-Entry; Mortgage Fraud Strike Force; Human Trafficking Work Group; Racial & Identity Profiling Advisory Board; eCrime Unit; Privacy Enforcement & Protection Unit. The list goes on and on if you want me to expand on this.

    Of course there will be missteps. Nobody in the DA or AG position has a spotless record. I think it comes with the territory. For example, progressive Keith Ellison is the current AG of Minnesota and we all know whats been going on there. Where I think Harris tends to trip up on is explaining some of the actions shes taken. Like let's take the whole truancy thing. Despite being on the books as a law since the 70's, shes still being criticized for it even though a lot of those criticisms are being made with incorrect or missing information. But the thing is, studies show that fighting truancy helps kids stay in school which then helps prevent them from ending up in prison or worse. In SF, 94% of homicide victims under the age of 25 were dropouts. Where Harris was involved was refining the current law to make it so the school district could better identify at-risk children and find the best times to intervene to make sure they stayed in school. It wasnt about throwing parents in jail, it was about making sure that schools, students, and parents had the resources to fix the truancy issue with harsher penalties only being used as a last resort. But the narrative is already past this sort of explanation and I think a big part of it is Harris' inability to effectively counter these sorts of misconceptions. That being said, I do think she is the frontrunner for the VP spot (its clear she really wants it despite being the best at hiding it *cough cough Stacey Abrams*) since shes the only one who seems to be doing events with not only Joe, but his wife and top advisors too. So I guess we will see in the next month who gets picked in the end but my money is on Harris.
    I really don't want to refresh myself on a topic that is now moribund, but to preface with my take from 1.5 years ago:

    The clip is somewhat-dishonestly presented. She's not hailing the threat delivered - which would make her look like a Saturday-morning cartoon villain - she's expressing pride that the mother was found, so that she could be offered services and the children placed in school.

    Stick with the good point that the immediate and only response in that case should have been the provision of services; the threat of criminal liability should (almost?) never play a role.

    The "evil cop" narrative is silly. Her record is mixed (no innuendo intended), but from what I've seen she's certainly been one of the more liberal DAs in the country (not sure as compared to blue states). Not liberal enough for you, or you don't think she'll change to be liberal enough if promoted to President? Fine. But don't fall for mischaracterizations her past.
    1. The instinct toward caution that Harris and many other Democrats have displayed with respect to electoral politics was IMO not indicated for the constituencies Harris sought to represent at the time she did, smounting IOW to over-cautiousness.

    2. That's a list of offices, some of which have no political valence, without reference to results or practices. In what sense was Harris progressive according to some independent, or even contextual, metrics of progressive law enforcement (to the extent one accepts such a thing can exist)? The benchmark should not be 'less punitive than the most traditionally conservative Democratic DAs or AGs in the country,' such as the Queens County DA or (so I heard) the Oregon AG - or else everyone becomes almost definitionally progressive.

    3. Other than the multiple parents prosecuted, the truancy policy of threatening parents was overall not overtly harmful beyond the psychological component (!), but the justice system did not offer material assistance to parents who needed it (e.g. addressing problems leading to childrens' nonattendance) because social services are outside the justice system's remit; it does not determine what services are available nor provision them, though it can integrate administratively to some extent with what is available. That situation is a failure of state and society that Harris had no control over, but critics have contended it would have been better for her not to use the coercive nature of her office at all in the way she did. She certainly had the discretion to avoid the big stick.

    4. Part of her cautiousness manifested in the admittedly-near universal habit of avoiding interfering with constituencies more powerful than poor minorities. Compare:

    While the Attorney General has made it clear that consumer protection and application transparency are top priorities for her office, Harris pointed out that her office seeks not to aggressively go after all application developers with a “big stick,” but rather make sure that application developers are knowledgeable of what the law is and are empowered to take steps to make sure they are compliant with the law.
    In San Francisco, we threatened the parents of truants with prosecution, and truancy dropped 32 percent. So, we are putting parents on notice. If you fail in your responsibility to your kids, we are going to work to make sure you face the full force and consequences of the law.
    A useful lens would be to reckon with which of Harris' dispositions in DA and AG offices should be considered substandard in all blue states today, including to Harris herself.

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Pessimistic...yes. Every interviewee voting for Biden...yes. But my main take was for all those blacks who won't vote at all because as a 78 year-old, rich white man, Biden is just 'more of the same'.
    Of course that is a narrative frame that will influence the behavior of some, but what are you comparing to?

    In 1964, black turnout was 58.5% according to this.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/17/u...nd-beyond.html

    That was the presidential election in which the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights Act were on the line, at the height of the civil rights movement in the country. Here is Census Population Survey dataset on black turnout in recent elections, back to 1986. I'll refer to the overreport-correction weighting (presidential in bold).
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...ecY/edit#gid=0

    1986: 35.8%
    1988: 46.8%
    1990: 33.0%
    1992: 50.6%
    1994: 33.2%
    1996: 48.1%
    1998: 36.0%
    2000: 52.9%
    2002: 37.7%
    2004: 61.4%
    2006: 36.6%
    2008: 69.1%
    2010: 41.6%
    2012: 67.4%
    2014: 36.4%
    2016: 59.9%
    2018: 51.3%

    Presidential Average: 57% (2004-16 pres elections higher than average; 1964 too, but I don't have data on hand for other elections prior to 1986)
    Midterm Average: 38% (only 2010 and 2018 above average)

    Black turnout in 2016 was about the same as in 1964, and in 2018 it was potentially the highest ever for a midterm. We can't judge these things against some hypothetical super-Obama Mr. Unbeatable pulling 80% turnout.

    More than being turned off or unenthused by any particular candidate, our concern about black turnout should be centered around the intense and continual suppression, which we know manifests when Republicans control the electoral infrastructure, of eligible black people who would like to vote.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 06-28-2020 at 00:15.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I really don't want to refresh myself on a topic that is now moribund, but to preface with my take from 1.5 years ago:
    I agree with this take.

    2. That's a list of offices, some of which have no political valence, without reference to results or practices. In what sense was Harris progressive according to some independent, or even contextual, metrics of progressive law enforcement (to the extent one accepts such a thing can exist)? The benchmark should not be 'less punitive than the most traditionally conservative Democratic DAs or AGs in the country,' such as the Queens County DA or (so I heard) the Oregon AG - or else everyone becomes almost definitionally progressive.
    I listed the offices as broader progressive (at the time) initiatives she put in place but I can certainly give concrete examples: as Deputy DA she fought against Proposition 21 which would have increased criminal penalties against crimes committed by children; as DA she created the first Back on Track re-entry program as I mentioned earlier; as DA refused to seek the death penalty even when pressured by other Dems; as DA worked to get the first safe house in SF for girls who wanted out of the sex trade; again as DA she changed how underage men/women were treated in cases of prostitution from criminals to victims; as AG she refused to defend Proposition 8 (the anti-gay marriage law and her actions led to Hollingsworth v. Perry which overturned Prop 8); as AG she issued guidance to state LE to track and report civilian complaints alleging racial profiling as well as collect data when the use of force was involved; created the first of its kind LE training that focused on implicit bias training; mandated body cameras for DOJ personnel in the field; arranged law firms to provide pro-bono legal services to unaccompanied children crossing the border. I can go on.

    Was she perfect? Was she 100% progressive? Hell no. She opposed legalizing marijuana nor did she back an initiative to have independent investigations into police shootings during her time as DA and AG. As a senator shes changed her positions on those issues and has become way more progressive. But as DA/AG she was, to a point, progressive, especially for those times and saying that she wasnt I think does a disservice to the gains made under her watch. And applying purity politics to someone who has valuable insight into how the justice system works I think does a greater disservice to the cause, especially if that person is willing to own up to their mistakes and fix them going forward.

    3. Other than the multiple parents prosecuted, the truancy policy of threatening parents was overall not overtly harmful beyond the psychological component (!), but the justice system did not offer material assistance to parents who needed it (e.g. addressing problems leading to childrens' nonattendance) because social services are outside the justice system's remit; it does not determine what services are available nor provision them, though it can integrate administratively to some extent with what is available. That situation is a failure of state and society that Harris had no control over, but critics have contended it would have been better for her not to use the coercive nature of her office at all in the way she did. She certainly had the discretion to avoid the big stick.
    As AG, Harris created the Bureau of Children’s Justice which formed private/public partnerships to increase resources available to educators and parents to reduce truancy and was successful at that. Of course her office wasnt personally able to step in and help parents in need, but thats why the partnership was created to work with the education department. Some cases do need a big stick unfortunately. I am lucky that my parents valued my education and stayed on top of me and my schooling. However I have friends whose parents were far more lax, and skipping school for them was no big deal and that showed. In more extreme cases I could see how the threat of persecution could help make the parents care.

    4. Part of her cautiousness manifested in the admittedly-near universal habit of avoiding interfering with constituencies more powerful than poor minorities.
    Its hard to tell. In that same speech you linked to she said she was going to go aggressively after perpetrators of mortgage fraud (which she did). During her tenure she also went after eBay, Walmart, Johnson & Johnson, Volkswagen, and Bank of America for various violations. So I think the characterization that she went soft on rich constituents is not a correct one.

    A useful lens would be to reckon with which of Harris' dispositions in DA and AG offices should be considered substandard in all blue states today, including to Harris herself.
    This is a fair take, and Harris herself has said that there would be things she would have done differently now and she has become more progressive as a senator since then. Actually if statistical rankings mean anything, shes one of the most progressive senators we got. Anyways my overarching point wasnt that she had a flawless or super progressive record, it was that for the time it was a decently progressive record. Of course it wouldnt be considered that progressive today, because as a country our attitudes have changed even just over the past 4 years. But if we look at everything through the lens of today, we are going to be toppling statues of Lincoln. Which apparently people now are trying to do which is just... ugh.

    More than being turned off or unenthused by any particular candidate, our concern about black turnout should be centered around the intense and continual suppression, which we know manifests when Republicans control the electoral infrastructure, of eligible black people who would like to vote.
    Exactly this. Case in point, the shenanigans going on in Georgia. The primary was just a practice run.
    Last edited by Hooahguy; 06-28-2020 at 20:44.
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    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Same question can be asked about how many young people wont vote for the same reason. Or how many Hispanics, Asians, etc. I dont think its a question that pertains only to one demographic.
    Agreed.

    One moment that stands out to me is his interaction at the New York Times with Jacquelyn, the elevator operator.
    Trump would cut off his hand before he ever did anything like that

    More than being turned off or unenthused by any particular candidate, our concern about black turnout should be centered around the intense and continual suppression, which we know manifests when Republicans control the electoral infrastructure, of eligible black people who would like to vote.
    Like maybe this:

    https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1275557397042548737

    Scroll down to the door banging cuts...

    ...although they were eventually let in
    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-28-2020 at 03:31.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Like maybe this:
    https://twitter.com/joesonka/status/1275557397042548737

    Scroll down to the door banging cuts...

    ...although they were eventually let in
    Couldn't find those, but the replies I saw make me want to claw my eyes out. With hashtags such as #MaskFascists saying it is a conspiracy to get everyone in masks with taglines of "healthy people don't spread disease, no masks" etc.
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  28. #28
    Senior Member Senior Member ReluctantSamurai's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I believe you have to expand the original discussion by clicking the 'view more replies' link. I tried it again and got the video of voters banging on the polling site doors to be let in (and for some reason you have to scroll back to the top) , which is what I was trying to highlight

    With hashtags such as #MaskFascists saying it is a conspiracy to get everyone in masks with taglines of "healthy people don't spread disease, no masks" etc.
    And there is THE problem. I wonder how those same people would feel if surgeons in an operating room wore no mask? I also have to wonder how these same people feel about having to wear a seat belt while driving a vehicle? They save lives, as do masks, but there's no hashtag rebellion that I know of to ban their use!?!

    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-28-2020 at 15:32.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    I believe you have to expand the original discussion by clicking the 'view more replies' link. I tried it again and got the video of voters banging on the polling site doors to be let in (and for some reason you have to scroll back to the top) , which is what I was trying to highlight
    Suspect you mean these two messages:

    "Door banging getting really aggressive now:"
    "The scene right outside the locked doors in Louisville:"
    Last edited by Viking; 06-28-2020 at 16:50.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Yes.
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