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Thread: POTUS/General Election Thread 2020

  1. #31
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Rumor has it that if his poll numbers keep falling Trump could drop out of the race. Like this guy says though, I am skeptical. But say he does for "health reasons" or some other excuse, would the GOP run Pence or someone else? I could see one of the Trump kids stepping up to keep the Trump/Pence thing going. Plus with a cult around Trump Im not entirely sure that everyone would follow Pence. But that would probably be balanced out with a stronger showing of evangelicals.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Rumor has it that if his poll numbers keep falling Trump could drop out of the race. Like this guy says though, I am skeptical. But say he does for "health reasons" or some other excuse, would the GOP run Pence or someone else? I could see one of the Trump kids stepping up to keep the Trump/Pence thing going. Plus with a cult around Trump Im not entirely sure that everyone would follow Pence. But that would probably be balanced out with a stronger showing of evangelicals.
    It won't happen. Handing the nomination to his son is tantamount to hereditary dictatorship which would cause many to either cut loose or fight within the party. For as much as political actors within the GOP treat Trump as a cult of personality, political actors inherently have a personal path to power they wish to obtain. Centralized power within a family can only be maintained through force or religion.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  3. #33
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Yes it would be like a hereditary dictatorship, but this is the GOP we are talking about. They will toss democracy if they felt it suited them. I cant remember exactly when this was but a poll taken over the past year with potential 2024 candidates ranked had Don Jr in the #1 spot. Their trend towards autocracy is worrisome to say the least.
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  4. #34
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Sad and absolutely, frickin' hilarious:

    https://twitter.com/davenewworld_2/s...65068048158720

    As one commenter put it---AntiqueFa.

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  5. #35

    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Rumor has it that if his poll numbers keep falling Trump could drop out of the race. Like this guy says though, I am skeptical. But say he does for "health reasons" or some other excuse, would the GOP run Pence or someone else? I could see one of the Trump kids stepping up to keep the Trump/Pence thing going. Plus with a cult around Trump Im not entirely sure that everyone would follow Pence. But that would probably be balanced out with a stronger showing of evangelicals.
    I greatly doubt his ego and the perquisites of the presidency will be overridden by the desire to quit (though of course Trump is notorious for cutting his losses when he fails). This is a pretty unique situation, but in the end his office is what gives him his (in his mind) absolute authority. He won't drop it just because he feels bad.

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Yes it would be like a hereditary dictatorship, but this is the GOP we are talking about. They will toss democracy if they felt it suited them. I cant remember exactly when this was but a poll taken over the past year with potential 2024 candidates ranked had Don Jr in the #1 spot. Their trend towards autocracy is worrisome to say the least.
    Best case, Trump runs from prison in 2024 like an anti-Debs, splits the GOP ticket like a Roosevelt, and his idiot children subsequently take up the mantle of driving the national party's elections into the ground.


    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    Yes.
    Some needed context on the situation in Kentucky.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 06-29-2020 at 01:40.
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  6. #36
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    I greatly doubt his ego and the perquisites of the presidency will be overridden by the desire to quit (though of course Trump is notorious for cutting his losses when he fails). This is a pretty unique situation, but in the end his office is what gives him his (in his mind) absolute authority. He won't drop it just because he feels bad.
    We're still ~4 months out so a lot can still change in ways we probably cant fathom right now (it is 2020 after all) but should his polling remain where it is now or worse, the scenario I envision is that he resigns for "medical reasons" so he can save face by saying that he quit before he could lose the election and later spin some yarn about stepping down for the good of the country. If he does quit I dont think he would ever run again (he can then claim he is undefeated), but he would prop up one of his sons or proteges in congress one day (presidential candidate Matt Gaetz *shudder*).
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Yes it would be like a hereditary dictatorship, but this is the GOP we are talking about. They will toss democracy if they felt it suited them. I cant remember exactly when this was but a poll taken over the past year with potential 2024 candidates ranked had Don Jr in the #1 spot. Their trend towards autocracy is worrisome to say the least.
    They will toss Democracy for everyone else. I am specifically talking about the internal political structure of the GOP. Republicans have no problem with a single party dictatorship as long as they as an individual have a path to party leadership.
    Don Jr. is an idiot and is not a good politician, it chafes current conservatives to work under his father, why would they willingly be led by Don the II.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    They will toss Democracy for everyone else. I am specifically talking about the internal political structure of the GOP. Republicans have no problem with a single party dictatorship as long as they as an individual have a path to party leadership.
    Don Jr. is an idiot and is not a good politician, it chafes current conservatives to work under his father, why would they willingly be led by Don the II.
    Sure but since when has the internal GOP power structure been good at opposing anyone from within? I have zero confidence they learned anything from 2016 considering almost every single prominent Republican who opposed Trump in 2016 is now a lapdog. I dont think the GOP base would care if Don Jr was a good politician, his dad sure ain't. Good at campaigning sure, but at anything else he fails. All Don Jr needs is his dad to stump for him which Im sure he'd be glad to do in order to continue the Trump name. Or for Ivanka. You are right that one of the kids probably wont ascend after their dad, but I can definitely see them playing a prominent role within the party itself in some form or another. As the story goes, if Trump lost in 2016 he was going to create a news network and feature prominently in it and I could see that path being taken.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Some needed context on the situation in Kentucky.
    Point taken.

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    Last edited by ReluctantSamurai; 06-29-2020 at 15:25.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    As Monty noted, I have little or no doubt that Trump will continue his bid for a second term. He was the underdog in 2016 and I suspect he believes that he can repeat that performance yet again. He is NOT a scientific campaigner; he goes with his gut.

    That said, if he DOES drop out prior to the convention, then the delegates would be committed to vote for him anyway on the first ballot. He would then be offered the nomination. Were he to refuse, it would go to open balloting on the floor.

    If he has been nominated and has accepted, but then drops out after the convention has been adjourned, the RNC committee members would meet to decide a new nominee voting, the for the appropriate number of delegates in their jurisdiction by proxy (no re-assembly of the convention would be made). They would be free to choose whomever they saw fit as long as a majority of those proxy votes supported the nomination and that nominee agreed to run.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    A winner has finally been called in the KY Dem primary, with McGrath eking out a win. I was rooting for Booker since it seemed like he was the favorite of actual Kentucky Dems plus I just dont think that McGrath is a very good campaigner at all (and I like Booker more personally). But lets be honest here, neither of them were going to win against McConnell, but I do hope that Booker goes on to challenge Rand Paul in 2022 since Paul is just a gigantic all-around moron. At least McGrath and her massive amount of funding will hopefully tie up McConnell's resources. But mark my words, Booker is one to watch for the future, I have really high hopes for him.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Its exactly 4 months until the general election. Things are only going to get crazier as a rumor comes that GOP leadership is giving Trump until Labor Day to "turn things around" and if not, he's on his own. I think this rumor is utter , the GOP is too intertwined with Trumpworld to cut it loose. They had their chance to cut themselves loose of Trump with impeachment and they failed miserably. No reason to think they wont go down with the ship even as his polling keeps dropping. Also didnt they say something similar in 2016 after the Access Hollywood tape?
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    As Monty noted, I have little or no doubt that Trump will continue his bid for a second term. He was the underdog in 2016 and I suspect he believes that he can repeat that performance yet again. He is NOT a scientific campaigner; he goes with his gut.

    That said, if he DOES drop out prior to the convention, then the delegates would be committed to vote for him anyway on the first ballot. He would then be offered the nomination. Were he to refuse, it would go to open balloting on the floor.

    If he has been nominated and has accepted, but then drops out after the convention has been adjourned, the RNC committee members would meet to decide a new nominee voting, the for the appropriate number of delegates in their jurisdiction by proxy (no re-assembly of the convention would be made). They would be free to choose whomever they saw fit as long as a majority of those proxy votes supported the nomination and that nominee agreed to run.
    A slight chance perhaps with a first day pardon for dear old Donald after he's pardoned everyone else on the last day.

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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    So because this timeline is the dumbest timeline, Kanye West is claiming hes running for president. I'm pretty sure he's just saying this to stir up controversy/get in the news cycle but who knows, he's similar to Trump in the sense that he has delusions of grandeur.

    Obviously this means that Biden needs to pick Taylor Swift as VP.

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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    So because this timeline is the dumbest timeline, Kanye West is claiming hes running for president. I'm pretty sure he's just saying this to stir up controversy/get in the news cycle but who knows, he's similar to Trump in the sense that he has delusions of grandeur.

    Obviously this means that Biden needs to pick Taylor Swift as VP.

    He's got an album coming out, so it's probably just for publicity.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Csargo View Post
    He's got an album coming out, so it's probably just for publicity.
    Oh I am 95% sure that this is the case too. Especially since for the states in which the filing deadline hasnt passed yet, he would need literally thousands of signatures to get on the ballot to run as an independent. In Florida he would need over 130,000 signatures. But even if he just pushes for a write-in campaign I think its not going to hurt Biden or Trump as it feels like the only people who would vote for him are the ones who werent planning on voting for either main party anyways.

    Also didnt he do this in 2016 too?
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Hooahguy View Post
    Oh I am 95% sure that this is the case too. Especially since for the states in which the filing deadline hasnt passed yet, he would need literally thousands of signatures to get on the ballot to run as an independent. In Florida he would need over 130,000 signatures. But even if he just pushes for a write-in campaign I think its not going to hurt Biden or Trump as it feels like the only people who would vote for him are the ones who werent planning on voting for either main party anyways.

    Also didnt he do this in 2016 too?
    Yeah, I don't think it he actual said it in 2016 but sort of hinted at running iirc.
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    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Well I'll believe Kanye when he actually files so
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    They delayed counting the absentee ballots in the New York Democratic primary, originally July 1, now set to begin 2 weeks after election day (June 23) fhsdgegagahrgek

    November is going to be pure sex in this country.

    Granted that New York is neither a battleground state nor has extensive experience handling mail ballots, but I wonder how the midwestern and southern states that matter will operationalize.

    On an interesting note from available non-mail returns, a substantial proportion of the ballot decisions on the presidential primary left the party delegate section blank (on the New York ballot you vote for the candidate and for the delegates who would vote for them at the DNC). I can't comment on the significance of that since for all I know it happens that way every presidential primary, but it does suggest to me a measure of contempt for the system of voting both for party candidates (directly) and for party electors pledged to vote for those candidates at the party convention.


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    Last edited by Montmorency; 07-05-2020 at 07:39.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    The GOP elites may very well be pressuring Trump, but it is a bluff and one that even Trump should be able to see.
    In all these papers we see a love of honest work, an aversion to shams, a caution in the enunciation of conclusions, a distrust of rash generalizations and speculations based on uncertain premises. He was never anxious to add one more guess on doubtful matters in the hope of hitting the truth, or what might pass as such for a time, but was always ready to take infinite pains in the most careful testing of every theory. With these qualities was united a modesty which forbade the pushing of his own claims and desired no reputation except the unsought tribute of competent judges.

  21. #51
    Stranger in a strange land Moderator Hooahguy's Avatar
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    They delayed counting the absentee ballots in the New York Democratic primary, originally July 1, now set to begin 2 weeks after election day (June 23) fhsdgegagahrgek

    November is going to be pure sex in this country.

    Granted that New York is neither a battleground state nor has extensive experience handling mail ballots, but I wonder how the midwestern and southern states that matter will operationalize.

    On an interesting note from available non-mail returns, a substantial proportion of the ballot decisions on the presidential primary left the party delegate section blank (on the New York ballot you vote for the candidate and for the delegates who would vote for them at the DNC). I can't comment on the significance of that since for all I know it happens that way every presidential primary, but it does suggest to me a measure of contempt for the system of voting both for party candidates (directly) and for party electors pledged to vote for those candidates at the party convention.
    I have a feeling that we might not know who won the election for a week at least after especially in states where it might be very close like Florida or Pennsylvania.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I believe Santoris should ask for special funding to set up the re-count and pay for it NOW -- it is foregone that it will be required.



    I am predicting Trump takes Florida by fewer than 10k.


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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    I am predicting Trump takes Florida by fewer than 10k.
    Damnit.
    Why? Biden is showing a great lead. The two latest polls that show a more even matchup are both rated C- by 538. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/
    A- polls show Biden with a clear lead.
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  24. #54
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    I'll be far more interested in what the polls in Florida have to say in early August when the death toll from the current COVID wildfire there gets logged
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by ReluctantSamurai View Post
    I'll be far more interested in what the polls in Florida have to say in early August when the death toll from the current COVID wildfire there gets logged
    So far, the toll is falling heaviest among Dem districts. Though there are a lot of "purple" swaths in Florida.
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  26. #56

    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh View Post
    So far, the toll is falling heaviest among Dem districts. Though there are a lot of "purple" swaths in Florida.
    Very interesting cohort survey that suggests the toll of CV19 on a county is correlated with reductions of support for Donald Trump, also implicating the increasingly-evident shift among older Americans.

    When the vast majority of new cases are coming out of red states, or even red counties, and concentrated in swing states like Florida, Arizona, and *gulp* Texas, then Trump has a lot to worry about this summer.
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    Latibulm mali regis in muris.
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    Default Re: POTUS Election Thread 2020

    It is rather macabre that Trump's most ardent supporters may be enhancing their chances to die just prior to the election as an expression of their support for Trump (not masking, refusing to social distance, etc.). It could even affect the margins in states such as Florida and North Carolina where the margins are thin.

    Not sure if this is something Sartrean or more like Poe would have written...
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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