POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[Hooahguy]

[1] It's not really all that surprising why Georgia just elected two Dem Senators when NC hasn't elected a single Dem statewide since Obama 2008. We should had been paying more attention when Georgia's cultivated a film industry in 2008 that surpassed California's in 2016. Ben Shapiro licking his lips seeing Big Tech move from CA to TX and FL, I'm not sure he understands that states are not liberal/conservative in and of themselves. When the Senior Programmer at Oracle gets on the plane to move from San Fran to Austin, Texas is shaping his opinions to the same degree that he will be shaping Texas politics.

Quick point about NC, Roy Cooper won his re-election for governor back in November which honestly makes me wonder why Cal Cunningham didnt beat Thom Tillis. Probably due to not being able to keep it in his pants unfortunately.

Agreed about states not being inherently liberal/conservative. Yes, some areas of California are super liberal, but then its also the state that gave us Devin Nunes. What I find interesting though is that I heard a lot of commentators before the election saying that Texas might go Dem this year while mostly ignoring Georgia, but now I am of the opinion that Georgia can be a solid purple state while Texas will likely remain red for a while.

Also as long as anyone doesnt object, I will rename this thread to be a generalized election thread dealing with anything pertaining to the 2020 election through the 2022 midterms and I will open a separate thread for the Biden administration on Jan 20th.

[ReluctantSamurai]

The Plot thickens:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...lub-for-growth

An anti-tax group funded primarily by billionaires has emerged as one of the biggest backers of the Republican lawmakers who sought to overturn the US election results, according to an analysis by the Guardian.

The Club for Growth has supported the campaigns of 42 of the rightwing Republicans senators and members of Congress who voted last week to challenge US election results, doling out an estimated $20m to directly and indirectly support their campaigns in 2018 and 2020, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

The Club for Growth’s biggest beneficiaries include Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz, the two Republican senators who led the effort to invalidate Joe Biden’s electoral victory, and the newly elected far-right gun-rights activist Lauren Boebert, a QAnon conspiracy theorist. Boebert was criticised last week for tweeting about the House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s location during the attack on the Capitol, even after lawmakers were told not to do so by police.

[Hooahguy]

FBI is investigating 37 people for the murder of USCP officer Brian Sicknick. Also this is a fun little website: seditiontracker.com

So this poll is extremely troubling. The authoritarian streak within the GOP is very real.

By 66 percent to 30 percent, overall Americans say Trump acted irresponsibly in his statements and actions since the election. But Republicans say Trump acted responsibly by 66 percent to 29 percent.By 62 percent to 31 percent, Americans say there’s no solid evidence of the claims of voter fraud that Trump cited to refuse to accept Joe Biden’s victory. But Republicans say there is solid evidence of fraud by 65 percent to 25 percent.

57 percent of Americans say Trump bears a great deal or good amount of responsibility for the assault on the Capitol. But 56 percent of Republicans say Trump bears no responsibility at all, and another 22 percent say he bears just some, totaling 78 percent who largely exonerate him.

52 percent of Americans say Republican leaders went too far in supporting Trump’s efforts to overturn the election. But 51 percent of Republicans say GOP leaders didn’t go far enough, while 27 percent say they got it right, a total of 78 percent who are fully on board or wanted more. Only 16 percent of Republicans say they went too far.

A sizable number of the Republicans who support the rioters also appear to be relatively affluent, so much for that "economic anxiety" excuse.

[a completely inoffensive name]

So this poll is extremely troubling. The authoritarian streak within the GOP is very real.

A sizable number of the Republicans who support the rioters also appear to be relatively affluent, so much for that "economic anxiety" excuse.

That poll is amazing. Sounds like roughly 25% of Republican voters found a line they were not willing to cross with Trump.
When a 5 point lead is considered a blow out, depressing the enthusiasm of a full quarter of your base sets you up for disaster.

[Hooahguy]

That poll is amazing. Sounds like roughly 25% of Republican voters found a line they were not willing to cross with Trump.
When a 5 point lead is considered a blow out, depressing the enthusiasm of a full quarter of your base sets you up for disaster.

Well the question really is whether or not those 25% will come back if Trump is not convicted in the Senate and decides to run in 2024. Or what effect this has down-ballot. We know that Trump can depress turnout, but will him not being on the ballot impact races for 2022 and 2024? We will find out I guess.

I saw a long line of military trucks when walking to the store this evening which was oddly comforting and terrifying at the same time. In a similar vein, enjoy this biting satire: Critics warn National Guard lacks exit strategy for presidential inauguration.

[Montmorency]

Hmmm, according to the Senate Historical Office troops have been deployed in the Capitol before in 1968 and during WW2.

Re: militias: Meh, we call them militias when they're in Syria or Iraq, though in Iraq and Syria most of the extant ones have some type of state sanction by now, and are perhaps better organized than what we have here. Maybe we can call ours rebel militias, or something like a revised English calque for Freikorps ("free corps" won't do).

This is a separate tangent but this thread is basically a catch all US politics thread.

A direct message to Monty: Please vote for Yang as your mayor or I will hereby boycott your city and starve it of my tourism dollars. And believe me, I love buying dumb tourist stuff like snowglobes and mini-statues of famous buildings.

Last time I was in NY, I rode in a cab with a driver smoking a cigar with the windows rolled up and the fan in the backseat was broken. Never again. Roads should be for buses and bikes only.

I'll vote for him in the primary if he makes a good case for himself against the other contenders. Thankfully, AFAIK this is the very first NYC primary with ranked choice voting, so I don't have to be tactical and can make an unvarnished assessment. The same applies to the rest of the electorate, making this a good comprehensive test of Yang's political career.

I don't care for him pushing basic income on NYC certainly, as it's a strictly-federal issue. What NYC needs, among other things, is someone who can manage and transcend all its competing factions and interests toward the greater good, someone who can skillfully interface with Albany to our advantage, someone who can keep city government and local politics functioning on a day-to-day basis, and someone who can direct foresighted long-term investments in the business, regulatory, and infrastructure landscape of the city. It's up to him to demonstrate how in-touch he is.

If you get Yang in the office, I promise within the year you will find me walking around Moynihan Station in a I love NYC t-shirt taking pictures of the pretty ceiling which I will never look at ever again.

I mean, it's a commuter rail station, why would you be there?

As I have said in here before, many Trump supporters are supporters not because of inherent evilness but because they are manipulated by a sophisticated machine that runs back to Reconstruction.

Why are they and only they so easily manipulated into expressing and supporting malice and cruelty? Indoctrination is not infinitely-extensible, else Russia and China should have the most left-leaning populations in the world.

It's not really all that surprising why Georgia just elected two Dem Senators when NC hasn't elected a single Dem statewide since Obama 2008

To be pedantic, the governor is a Democrat.

Agreed about states not being inherently liberal/conservative. Yes, some areas of California are super liberal, but then its also the state that gave us Devin Nunes. What I find interesting though is that I heard a lot of commentators before the election saying that Texas might go Dem this year while mostly ignoring Georgia, but now I am of the opinion that Georgia can be a solid purple state while Texas will likely remain red for a while.

Also as long as anyone doesnt object, I will rename this thread to be a generalized election thread dealing with anything pertaining to the 2020 election through the 2022 midterms and I will open a separate thread for the Biden administration on Jan 20th.

To be clear, for Texas to go blue, it was predicted that Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina would all have to go blue by even higher margins. For my part IIRC I placed Georgia in a trifecta with NC-FL, of which "at least two" should go for Biden. (Assuming a purely linear trend from 21st century margins, Texas should definitively go blue in 2028, but of course various factors will push that one direction or another.)

I'd prefer we make a different thread for the midterms when it comes to that, or just keep it in the Biden thread, which I estimate will prove uneventful enough to fill but a few pages.

A sizable number of the Republicans who support the rioters also appear to be relatively affluent, so much for that "economic anxiety" excuse.

https://whitonjacob.medium.com/where...ed-2a50ccc70fd

[ReluctantSamurai]

One reason why the next four years are going to be long and full of this kind of horse-bleep:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5...ticles-against

Georgia might have given the Dems control of the Senate for the next two years, but they also gave us this twit....

[Seamus Fermanagh]

One reason why the next four years are going to be long and full of this kind of horse-bleep:

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5...ticles-against

Georgia might have given the Dems control of the Senate for the next two years, but they also gave us this twit....

I read that one earlier today. Just shook my head.

I think Pelosi should allow its immediate introduction to the entire House, skip the committee pigeon-holing, and then call for a vote on the thing immediately, after allowing the introducer to debate its merits.

On second thought, the introducer AND any supporters should be granted 10-15 minutes to speak. Lets get all of them in the Congressional Record so that this is clearly set out.


Of course, my attitude may reflect my love of alternate history novels and other similar fantasies...

[Hooahguy]

Hmmm, according to the Senate Historical Office troops have been deployed in the Capitol before in 1968 and during WW2.

I think people were referring to troops being billeted in the Capitol, not just deployed. Which as it turns out isn't the case anyways since the guardsmen aren't sleeping there overnight, just taking naps.

To be clear, for Texas to go blue, it was predicted that Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina would all have to go blue by even higher margins. For my part IIRC I placed Georgia in a trifecta with NC-FL, of which "at least two" should go for Biden. (Assuming a purely linear trend from 21st century margins, Texas should definitively go blue in 2028, but of course various factors will push that one direction or another.)

I'd prefer we make a different thread for the midterms when it comes to that, or just keep it in the Biden thread, which I estimate will prove uneventful enough to fill but a few pages.

Was that the analysis? Honestly the pre-November stuff feels like eons ago and I hardly remember anymore. What I do think is that it will all depend on whether or not the GOP can do more to court the Hispanic vote. They clearly had great success in November in this regard and Dems will need to figure out how to counter it. I do feel however that Florida is solid R now. Really hard to see any Dem making headway there anymore.

And yeah that seems like a plan for the various threads.

I read that one earlier today. Just shook my head.

I think Pelosi should allow its immediate introduction to the entire House, skip the committee pigeon-holing, and then call for a vote on the thing immediately, after allowing the introducer to debate its merits.

On second thought, the introducer AND any supporters should be granted 10-15 minutes to speak. Lets get all of them in the Congressional Record so that this is clearly set out.

Of course, my attitude may reflect my love of alternate history novels and other similar fantasies...

Strongly disagree, we should not entertain moronic stunts like this on the House floor. There's better use for the time.

A day or two ago, DC's mayor said that we could be looking at a "new normal" for security even after the inauguration. This morning I took a walk around the outer security perimeter which is less than a 10 minute walk from where I live. It is definitely very strange to see military checkpoints so close to me.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

There was a much larger checkpoint a block over with a small squad of soldiers patrolling that I decided against taking a picture of as I didn't feel like getting interrogated this morning.

I feel like there wont be any large assaults like we saw on Jan. 6 in the near future thankfully, but there are definitely threats- CNN reported that a man was arrested near Union Station yesterday evening with a gun & a lot of ammunition.

I'm starting to get the feeling that this will be our "new normal." Not so much the checkpoints around the city, but that we will see a surge of lone wolf/small cell attacks as the most fervent Trump supporters try to exact revenge or something like that. I saw an article talk about how this might become an American version of The Troubles and now I feel like we aren't far off from that. The article makes the distressing point that when The Troubles first started people thought it wouldn't last very long, but it ended up lasting decades. I hope it doesn't come to that here.

[Pannonian]

'I’m facing a prison sentence': US Capitol rioters plead with Trump for pardons

Is this legal?

[Hooahguy]

'I’m facing a prison sentence': US Capitol rioters plead with Trump for pardons

Is this legal?

It is, but it also puts Trump in a legal bind because if he pardons them he could potentially open himself up for civil lawsuits as the people asking for pardons are doing so because they claim they went there at his request. So its essentially an admission of guilt which would then mean that the families of the people who died or were injured could sue him for damages. At least thats my understanding, Im sure someone else has a better grasp on these legal issues than I do.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It is, but it also puts Trump in a legal bind because if he pardons them he could potentially open himself up for civil lawsuits as the people asking for pardons are doing so because they claim they went there at his request. So its essentially an admission of guilt which would then mean that the families of the people who died or were injured could sue him for damages. At least thats my understanding, Im sure someone else has a better grasp on these legal issues than I do.

I suspect that parties can claim wrongful death at Trump's expense because of his incitement of the mob in civil court regardless of whether or not he issues pardons for the federal crimes involved. It remains to be seen if a jury would award for the plaintiff's or view Trump's efforts as too indirect. DC wrongful death

I still think he will attempt to self-pardon, inclusive of incitement to riot on the 6th. I hope it would not stand up.

He is a loathsome creature and reminds me more and more of Gollum without the deeply hidden streak of almost forgotten goodness.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Well the question really is whether or not those 25% will come back if Trump is not convicted in the Senate and decides to run in 2024. Or what effect this has down-ballot. We know that Trump can depress turnout, but will him not being on the ballot impact races for 2022 and 2024? We will find out I guess.

Well there is a non-zero chance those 25% are now receptive to a 21st century 'Return to Normalcy'. Harding did get 60% popular vote on the message.

I'll vote for him in the primary if he makes a good case for himself against the other contenders. Thankfully, AFAIK this is the very first NYC primary with ranked choice voting, so I don't have to be tactical and can make an unvarnished assessment. The same applies to the rest of the electorate, making this a good comprehensive test of Yang's political career.

I don't care for him pushing basic income on NYC certainly, as it's a strictly-federal issue. What NYC needs, among other things, is someone who can manage and transcend all its competing factions and interests toward the greater good, someone who can skillfully interface with Albany to our advantage, someone who can keep city government and local politics functioning on a day-to-day basis, and someone who can direct foresighted long-term investments in the business, regulatory, and infrastructure landscape of the city. It's up to him to demonstrate how in-touch he is.

His twitter has videos of him buying bananas at bodegas talking about there being 18,000 of them in NYC and they need help. Is some company killing NYC's bodegas? Also, why do you call them bodegas, they just look like tiny grocery stores.
As far the logistical management, the dude is the wonkish policy man ever to hit mainstream politics. I would think he is the best case for level-headed long term reforms, what makes you think any of the other candidates would not be bogged down by personal politics over real data?

Small tid bit about basic income, New York is leading as the state with the highest population decline correct? You tell me how much of a grind it is to afford to live in your area and how much would an NYC residential BI would help to keep artistic/cultural talent (vast majority barely scrapping by) in the city. At the very least, such a BI experiment on one of the worlds largest cities would put an end to the 'feasibility' question and we can move on knowing whether to spend on time on it or not.

I mean, it's a commuter rail station, why would you be there?

That's the one recently renovated right? I like trains and architecture, particularly styles from the late 1800s to pre-WW2.

Why are they and only they so easily manipulated into expressing and supporting malice and cruelty? Indoctrination is not infinitely-extensible, else Russia and China should have the most left-leaning populations in the world.

Isn't CPRF still the second largest party in Russia, and what can we say about their potential once Putin is out of the picture and no longer suppressing opponents?
What's your understanding of the Chinese culture? Don't they for the most part still have large support for the government that mismanaged and starved their grandparents and parents for 5 decades? Post 1980s China has been an economic miracle, but China isn't the only example of such rapid growth from market reforms after years of economic isolationism. The assumption was always "the new Chinese middle class will demand democracy" and it just didn't pan out.

To be pedantic, the governor is a Democrat.

The exception that proves the rule.

To be clear, for Texas to go blue, it was predicted that Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina would all have to go blue by even higher margins. For my part IIRC I placed Georgia in a trifecta with NC-FL, of which "at least two" should go for Biden. (Assuming a purely linear trend from 21st century margins, Texas should definitively go blue in 2028, but of course various factors will push that one direction or another.)

That prediction is now understood to be garbage though. The assumption of the Southern domino theory was Florida > North Carolina > Georgia > Texas, but as it turns out the demographic compositions are just too different to link them in such a manner. Florida may as well be Ruby Red if Cuban Americans align with the GOP to same degree in the future and Texas could go blue next cycle before NC if the 'Tejanos' (I think that is the term from an article I read) return back to the normal level of Dem support of earlier cycles.

[Hooahguy]

His twitter has videos of him buying bananas at bodegas talking about there being 18,000 of them in NYC and they need help. Is some company killing NYC's bodegas? Also, why do you call them bodegas, they just look like tiny grocery stores.

I heard one cynical New Yorker say that those videos are just a way to reinforce his New Yorker credentials. I'll let the actual New Yorkers here weigh in on that claim. As for the bodega thing, I don't know either. Bodegas aren't an exclusively NYC thing and both of the bodegas near me have been flourishing this past year by all appearances. I will say though that Im a bit confused by his UBI plan. If the cost of living in NYC is similar to DC, $2,000 really is not all that much.

That prediction is now understood to be garbage though. The assumption of the Southern domino theory was Florida > North Carolina > Georgia > Texas, but as it turns out the demographic compositions are just too different to link them in such a manner. Florida may as well be Ruby Red if Cuban Americans align with the GOP to same degree in the future and Texas could go blue next cycle before NC if the 'Tejanos' (I think that is the term from an article I read) return back to the normal level of Dem support of earlier cycles.

I think one of the biggest takeaways from 2020 for Dems is to not paint the Hispanic population with such a broad brush, and realize that immigration isnt the highest priority for a lot of these communities.

[ReluctantSamurai]

a man was arrested near Union Station yesterday evening with a gun & a lot of ammunition.

Unfortunately, not all the lone wolf's will be as stupid as this guy:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-id-loaded-gun

The man, identified in court papers as Wesley Allen Beeler, was driving a pickup truck with several firearm-related bumper stickers, including one that read: “If they come for your guns Give ‘Em your bullets first,” the papers said.

So you try to pass a police checkpoint with a loaded handgun, 500 rounds of ammunition, AND a bumper sticker that reads “If they come for your guns Give ‘Em your bullets first.”

[a completely inoffensive name]

I heard one cynical New Yorker say that those videos are just a way to reinforce his New Yorker credentials. I'll let the actual New Yorkers here weigh in on that claim. As for the bodega thing, I don't know either. Bodegas aren't an exclusively NYC thing and both of the bodegas near me have been flourishing this past year by all appearances. I will say though that Im a bit confused by his UBI plan. If the cost of living in NYC is similar to DC, $2,000 really is not all that much.

$2000 a month doesn't cover the rent in DC?

I think one of the biggest takeaways from 2020 for Dems is to not paint the Hispanic population with such a broad brush, and realize that immigration isnt the highest priority for a lot of these communities.

I don't think Dems have a viable plan to win back Cuban-Americans if they plan on pushing progressive ideas. Learn what the various Hispanic demographics want but with that understanding comes an acceptance that some are not just not amenable to the party's goals. North Carolina is odd as I haven't seen anyone suggest a potential path forward there. Articles continue to claim that with African-Americans only making 20-25% of the population it is not enough for Georgia type turnout to win the day and the state is also just more rural than the others mentioned.

[Hooahguy]

$2000 a month doesn't cover the rent in DC?

I'd wager for most it does, for a month anyways. But I just feel that considering the really high cost of living in NYC that $2,000 a year is on the low side. I'm not particularly well-versed in UBI issues but it seems like the money might be better used going towards other social programs like SNAP or rent relief, or done in a different way that gives out the money on a monthly basis. $2,000 a year turns into a bit over $166 a month which doesnt really go very far per month. I know that Stockton CA is trying out $500 per month ($6,000/year) which would seem to be much more helpful. If you know you have an extra $500 coming every month, I think that makes it far easier to budget with compared to a single payment of $2,000. Like sure that might pay all the bills for a single month, but would participants also have access to free resources like financial planners to use that windfall to help them become more financially secure? I dont have the answers to this, but I hope Yang can address them.

I don't think Dems have a viable plan to win back Cuban-Americans if they plan on pushing progressive ideas. Learn what the various Hispanic demographics want but with that understanding comes an acceptance that some are not just not amenable to the party's goals. North Carolina is odd as I haven't seen anyone suggest a potential path forward there. Articles continue to claim that with African-Americans only making 20-25% of the population it is not enough for Georgia type turnout to win the day and the state is also just more rural than the others mentioned.

I completely agree, thats why I think Florida is a lost cause. Potentially NC as well, I am still mystified that Roy Cooper got re-elected but otherwise it appears to be trending red. Like what about him makes him more electable in NC?

[a completely inoffensive name]

I'd wager for most it does, for a month anyways. But I just feel that considering the really high cost of living in NYC that $2,000 a year is on the low side. I'm not particularly well-versed in UBI issues but it seems like the money might be better used going towards other social programs like SNAP or rent relief, or done in a different way that gives out the money on a monthly basis. $2,000 a year turns into a bit over $166 a month which doesnt really go very far per month. I know that Stockton CA is trying out $500 per month which would seem to be much more helpful. If you know you have an extra $500 coming every month, I think that makes it far easier to budget with compared to a single payment of $2,000. Like sure that might pay all the bills for a single month, but would participants also have access to free resources like financial planners to use that windfall to help them become more financially secure? I dont have the answers to this, but I hope Yang can address them.

Oh, I thought it was 2k a month, not a year. Yeah not sure if that is big enough to help. Agreed, need to bump it up to at least 500 a month. Although Monty has papers on how effective the one time 1200 payment was (i.e. it was pretty effective) so maybe 2000 is still a good stimulus.

I mean, putting ourselves in the position of someone under the poverty line, it seems privileged to write off $166 a month. That still covers a good chunk of car insurance, or it could cover a family cell phone plan + internet.
$166 a month can go towards eating higher quality food and eating more of it, possibly cutting down NYC child hunger and malnutrition.

[Hooahguy]

I definitely agree that $166 isn't nothing, but if the goal is to lift people out of poverty (per Yang's website), I just dont think it goes far enough to achieve that goal. To his credit, his website says that with more public and private funding the payments can increase, but if thats the case, why not start with a smaller group and expand if it proves successful? His plan says he wants to include 500,000 in his program. So to me it would make far more sense to start with a smaller group, show everyone that it works, and build it up to include more people. I would be worried that starting with only $2,000 a year is setting itself up for less than ideal outcomes.

[Montmorency]

His twitter has videos of him buying bananas at bodegas talking about there being 18,000 of them in NYC and they need help. Is some company killing NYC's bodegas? Also, why do you call them bodegas, they just look like tiny grocery stores.

Because they're bodacious. Probably the general small business issues, loss of revenue and the like.

As far the logistical management, the dude is the wonkish policy man ever to hit mainstream politics.

1. That's his persona
2. The most taped-glasses data bro alone would get blown out of the water trying to meet the criteria I listed above

Clinton and Obama were at least as wonkish, by the by. Warren way more so.

Small tid bit about basic income, New York is leading as the state with the highest population decline correct? You tell me how much of a grind it is to afford to live in your area and how much would an NYC residential BI would help to keep artistic/cultural talent (vast majority barely scrapping by) in the city. At the very least, such a BI experiment on one of the worlds largest cities would put an end to the 'feasibility' question and we can move on knowing whether to spend on time on it or not.

I'd rather we spend the money making NYCHA livable. That way, if Biden makes Section 8 an entitlement, we have an experiment between public housing and rental subsidy. A few hundred a month in a tenant's pocket, for example, won't do anything towards getting the heating, plumbing, and electricity working in a de-roached, de-leaded building (estimated tens of billions in deferred upkeep).

Has Yang defined what the target for a "successful" pilot UBI in the city would be?

That's the one recently renovated right? I like trains and architecture, particularly styles from the late 1800s to pre-WW2.

It used to be a post office.

Isn't CPRF still the second largest party in Russia, and what can we say about their potential once Putin is out of the picture and no longer suppressing opponents?

According to Wiki, they hold <10% of seats in parliament, 3 more than the main liberal party LDPR. The German socialists and communists (Die Linke) have just as much representation in Germany (69/709)...

So in fact your relative statement on their being the second-largest party should be set in context of the second clause about Putinism (leaving aside that any successor to Putin would probably be similarly-authoritarian to hold the country together, unless positing a legendary Russian Spring).

What's your understanding of the Chinese culture? Don't they for the most part still have large support for the government that mismanaged and starved their grandparents and parents for 5 decades? Post 1980s China has been an economic miracle, but China isn't the only example of such rapid growth from market reforms after years of economic isolationism. The assumption was always "the new Chinese middle class will demand democracy" and it just didn't pan out.

Not very much. There's a long-standing aphorism that Mao was 60% right, 40% wrong. I think the Chinese government has done a very good job of convincing the Chinese public of its legitimacy, and the satellite republics provinces are too small and repressed to offer contradiction. Despite its market economy China is way more centralized than the Soviet Union was. Moreover, littoral and riparian China has for almost all the history of civilization been the world center of population and economic density, which Russia has never been. I do, however, think an autocratic China is likelier to fuck things up for itself.

The exception that proves the rule.

Democrats have been governors of North Carolina for 6/7, 8/11, and 30/35 (post-Reconstruction) of the past terms. It went for Obama in 2008, on top of electing its last Dem senator then. I have it on good authority that North Carolina is steadily developing along the same axis of urbanization and professionalization as Virginia did over the past generation.

That prediction is now understood to be garbage though. The assumption of the Southern domino theory was Florida > North Carolina > Georgia > Texas, but as it turns out the demographic compositions are just too different to link them in such a manner. Florida may as well be Ruby Red if Cuban Americans align with the GOP to same degree in the future and Texas could go blue next cycle before NC if the 'Tejanos' (I think that is the term from an article I read) return back to the normal level of Dem support of earlier cycles.

The common sense in the coastal South was Florida > NC > Georgia > SC. Maybe there's an analysis up. I would look for Catalist Consulting or MCI Maps, not sure if they have a product out.

Losses among Tejanos were concentrated in low-population counties along the Rio Grande Valley, the main factors of which may include the extractive economy of the area, the Trump campaign word-of-mouth outreach in social networks, and Trump's personal appeal. Glancing at Election Atlas, I think Biden did about as well as Gore in the RGV.

For interest, here are Georgia and Texas Dem margins from 2000.

Year	Georgia Dem Margin (%)	Texas Dem Margin (%)
2000	-11.7	-21.3
2004	-16.6	-22.9
2008	-5.2	-11.8
2012	-7.8	-15.8
2016	-5.1	-9
2020	+0.2	-5.6

It's not clear that Florida loss (mostly due to dramatic underperformance in Miami-Dade) had to do with Cubans in particular, unless you have granular evidence. What we do know is that Biden increased in the north, around Jacksonville and Tallahassee and the panhandle, whereas he decreased throughout the South, particularly in the large Broward and Palm Beach counties, representing a net loss of 200K votes against the margin compared to 2016. Broward and Palm Beach have very small Cuban populations, so there's likely something else going on. The county trends outside Miami are actually almost all continuing from 2016 and 2018, so it seems as though we've lost some votes in Florida, not just on net, and in a broad-based way. On the bright side, in the Bush era Miami was actually a swing city, so it may be reverting to the mean; we'll have to watch the midterms to make a good judgement of where it's headed. But further evidence appears in the - previously mentioned - decline in Florida registered partisan advantage for Dems, from >0.5 million in the Obama era to ~100K now.

Although Monty has papers on how effective the one time 1200 payment was (i.e. it was pretty effective) so maybe 2000 is still a good stimulus.

IIRC that was more the boosted UI.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I definitely agree that $166 isn't nothing, but if the goal is to lift people out of poverty (per Yang's website), I just dont think it goes far enough to achieve that goal. To his credit, his website says that with more public and private funding the payments can increase, but if thats the case, why not start with a smaller group and expand if it proves successful? His plan says he wants to include 500,000 in his program. So to me it would make far more sense to start with a smaller group, show everyone that it works, and build it up to include more people. I would be worried that starting with only $2,000 a year is setting itself up for less than ideal outcomes.

In your opinion, are initial policy proposals 'out of the gate' so to speak already vetted or circulated among the political class for feasibility, or is it all PR and the policy negotiation comes later when a candidate wins office?

[Hooahguy]

In your opinion, are initial policy proposals 'out of the gate' so to speak already vetted or circulated among the political class for feasibility, or is it all PR and the policy negotiation comes later when a candidate wins office?

A little column A, a little column B. Policy proposals should be well-thought out when initially submitted but also have some flexibility for negotiation. And if the goal is to gain popular support for a UBI plan, why start so low? Its clear that Yang would like to increase it, but I do question how well-thought out this plan is. Almost feels as if its being set up to fail. And I agree with Monty, Yang definitely puts forth the persona of being wonkish.

Also want to point out Trump's ridiculous schedule for the weekend:


Apparently its been the exact same since the 6th. I guess saying that POTUS is moping is a bad look. Only a few days left!

[spmetla]

I love that schedule, it's like a description of a politician's job by a six year old.

[Hooahguy]

I love that schedule, it's like a description of a politician's job by a six year old.

I mean considering he has the coloring skills of one, are we sure he's not a couple of toddlers stacked in a trench coat?

[a completely inoffensive name]

And I agree with Monty, Yang definitely puts forth the persona of being wonkish.

I don't understand where this cynical view of Yang as an actor is coming from. Have you seen his videos? Did we forget his debate performances? I don't believe someone could be that awkward as a political ploy.

[Hooahguy]

I'm not saying he isnt wonkish, but rather that he seems to work hard at appearing as such. Like his math hat. I mean I'm the biggest history dork I know and I'd never wear a hat that said HISTORY on it unless I wanted people to think I was a history dork lol. For what its worth I dont think its a huge deal to work to appear wonkish, but its definitely a strategy.

I would also like to also know why during the presidential campaign he was advocating for $1,000 a month but now he is saying $2,000 a year.

[Hooahguy]

Something I don't think I've seen discussed here much is the Qanon conspiracy phenomenon. I've read a few articles recently about how its been tearing families and friendships apart. While I thankfully do not have any family members or friends who are caught up in it, one of my friend's dad is into it and he is difficult to talk to because of it. I've been listening to a podcast critically examining the Q phenomenon and the more I listen the more I realize that even as the Q stuff gets disproven, they just go deeper down the rabbit hole. I saw a screenshot of a Q poster claiming that Trump is getting an experimental surgery to make him look like Biden so it looks like Biden is getting inaugurated but really its Trump. Like damn, how do we as a society come back from that type of derangement? And it doesnt seem as if its an insignificant number of people either. I mean we now have two members of Congress who are at least Q-sympathetic. I've seen some researchers point out that Qanon numbers accelerated when the pandemic began and people were in lockdown, leading to social isolation and becoming more vulnerable to radicalization. Does anyone here have any family members or friends who fell into Qanon? Would be interested in hearing those stories.

[Montmorency]

Another thorough compilation/timeline of Jan. 6 events.


One of the better cops:

‘It was my pleasure to crush a white nationalist insurrection’: DC officer injured in Capitol riot speaks out

“If it wasn’t my job I would’ve done that for free,” Officer Daniel Hodges said in an interview with NBC. “It was absolutely my pleasure to crush a white nationalist insurrection … We’ll do it as many times as it takes."

He was the one on video getting compressed between the battle lines.




Yeah, Trump burning his GOP political capital and getting banned from social media probably sealed his fate. We've finally reached the Trumpian maximum. He's chopped liver for 2024 without an audience for t he next 3 years. Fascism blowing its load too early may have even bought us a few years with the rest of the GOP.


Another goddamn inverse-Brexit.



(I know it isn't binding, it's funnier to present it this way.)


Why Crandar is feeling mellow these days.

Rogan O’Handley ����
@DC_Draino
Lawyer • Patriot • Civil Rights Activist • Journalist • Bro/Bruh���� #MAGA

If Communism comes to America, it will be enforced by the corporations

I saw a screenshot of a Q poster claiming that Trump is getting an experimental surgery to make him look like Biden so it looks like Biden is getting inaugurated but really its Trump.

Hot damn, that was the last Bond movie I saw in theaters!

More seriously, I thankfully (?) don't know of any Q family, just ones who believe more standard Trumpian conspiracies.

I would also like to also know why during the presidential campaign he was advocating for $1,000 a month but now he is saying $2,000 a year.

Actually a good sign, since a political neophyte pretending that a city could implement the exact same transfers intended for the federal government would be an open-shut joke.

[Hooahguy]

Actually a good sign, since a political neophyte pretending that a city could implement the exact same transfers intended for the federal government would be an open-shut joke.

So what you are saying, if I am understanding you correctly, is that by reducing the amount his is showing that he understands he has less of a budget to work with. Its definitely a valid point, but I think my main concern is still there: is there data that shows $2,000/year is enough to help New Yorkers rise out of poverty? $2,000 for 500,000 New Yorkers is a billion dollars, if I am doing my math right. Thats a lot of money to be working with and to me it seems like it could be spent more efficiently.

In coup news, we may finally get our Russian connection, and the Pentagon is saying they are vetting all the soldiers involved in the inauguration due to concerns of insider attacks. Just wonderful, Wednesday cannot get here soon enough so we can be done with this already.

[Crandar]

Does anyone here have any family members or friends who fell into Qanon? Would be interested in hearing those stories.

No family member, of course, but it's interesting to note that the QAnon conspiracy has infected Greece as well. There's a trending topic in social media about Chinese troops being stationed in Canada and Mexico, ready to intervene if Biden is not inaugurated as the 46th president. Thankfully, the US army remains loyal to Trump, so the Commies have no chance. It's the second hottest topic after the controversy surrounding the fact that the Greek government sold the legal rights of the Greek alphabet to Bill Gates for the development of the 5G network. The funny thing is that we actually scammed Microsoft. We had already sold the copyright for the Greek language/alphabet to Bill Gates, so that the latter can invent the dyadic system used in computers. Now that we mentioned language, did you know that ancient Greek was about to become the official language of the US, but lost in Congress just for a single vote (I think the culprit was a Jewish deputy, colour me surprised)? Not that there's much difference anyway, English being a Greek idiom. Hello comes from the Mycenaean άλο, which means sea and was shouted by the Mycenaean sailors that discovered and civilised the British Isles.

Why[/URL] Crandar is feeling mellow these days.

Aww, he also has our most famous king as the image background for his twitter account.