Uprising in Belarus

[Viking]

Things are heating up along yet another segment of Russia's European border.

Barricades being raised yesterday in Minsk:




Some interesting videos from unofficial sources, presumably from yesterday, underscoring the seriousness of what is going on:

• What appears to be Molotov cocktails hurled toward riot police
• Riot police attacked with fireworks
• Riot police officer rammed by car
• Line of riot police rammed by car

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Proximate causes (triggers)?

Distal causes (underlying issues)?

[Viking]

Here's a PhD researcher's take, written in June:

Lukashenko’s enormous popularity over the years can be largely explained by the fact that he managed to find the source of these subsidies – Russia. Starting from the mid-90s, Lukashenko has been constantly offering his friendship to the Kremlin in exchange for tangible economic benefits. That policy became popularly known as “oil and gas in return for kisses”.

[...]

The Kremlin says it is ready to resume its financial support, but under one pesky condition – Belarus and Russia will have to form a union state, envisaged once in a 1999 treaty, which for Minsk would essentially mean giving up its independence and becoming one of Russia’s oblasts. There is no doubt Lukashenko would never agree to that as it would mean the end of his career as an authoritarian leader.

Effectively, Belarus has ended up in a deadlock. The old foundations of its economy are long gone but no new formula has been found to replace them. The attempts of the last five years to improve relations with the West returned almost nothing as Lukashenko still refuses to make any democratic reforms. For many years, Belarusian authorities have been cherishing hopes that China could replace Russia as a key partner and donor, but Beijing hasn’t shown much interest. Basically, Belarus’ only visible achievement from the past ten years is increasing debt.

For those with access, here is a Bloomberg article from last year that seems to be saying much of the same thing:

The Kremlin is making any compensation to soften the blow contingent on a deal to integrate the two countries. That’s forcing Lukashenko to navigate a choice he has long sought to avoid: Cut a deal with Russia, at the risk of being seen to sacrifice sovereignty, or put the nation’s heavy industry on a commercial footing and turn westward for support, risking retribution from Moscow.

[...]

The economy as a whole has grown at a snail’s pace since the global financial crisis (an average 1.7% per annum since 2009, compared to 7.5% over the previous decade). According to one estimate, that slide has coincided with a drop in Russian energy subsidies to between 5% and 10% of Belarus’s GDP, from a pre-crisis high of 20% of GDP. A top official at state oil company Belneftekhim said at the end of October that Belarus refineries lost $250 million over the first nine months of this year, a result of the latest changes to Russia’s tax code.

In short, the Belarusian economy has become heavily dependent on Russian subsidies. The subsidies have decreased and have not been enough to prevent slow economic growth in Belarus in recent years. The future of these subsidies is also most uncertain. Belarusians are more inclined to ask themselves why they have to put up with this dictator when he fails to deliver on the economy.

[Gilrandir]

The future of these subsidies is also most uncertain. Belarusians are more inclined to ask themselves why they have to put up with this dictator when he fails to deliver on the economy.

Judging from the pro-Russian stance of the opposition leaders, Belarusians make a curious conclusion: we should oust Lukashenko and have someone instead who would renew the subsidies and tighten ties with Russia.

[Hooahguy]

So how long do we think we have until we start seeing Little Green Men on the streets of Minsk?

[Viking]

I wonder if not an open intervention by Russian forces is more likely than a covert one.

Belarus neighbours Poland, a country with roughly a quarter the population of Russia. The Polish military has undergone some degree of modernization, and I don't think it can be completely excluded, depending on the exact circumstances, that Poland would intervene militarily in the event of a covert Russian invasion (the rhetoric used by the Polish government about the situation in Belarus is already rather aggressive; there is a Polish minority living in Belarus).

In such a scenario, Poland would not formally be attacking Russian troops, and Russia would effectively limit the ways in which it could support its own troops if they are not to blow their cover so obviously that they might just as well have intervened formally in the first place. If significant fractions of the armed forces of Belarus resent a Russian invasion, they could provide a lot of the staying power on the ground.