Biden Thread

[Hooahguy]

It was a great speech by Biden- calling a spade a spade was inevitably going to ruffle feathers among the GOP, though the outcry has been particularly hilarious since they went from "Sleepy Joe" to "Biden is Palpatine/Hitler." As Truman said, “I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell.”

Also applicable- "a hit dog will holler."

Now the Dems need to follow up on this with more forceful campaigning. Biden got us off to a great start, now time to bring it home. Call the MAGA GOP a threat to democracy, show voters concrete examples of how the GOP are going to end free and fair elections. Show the rhetoric and votes that the GOP deny the election results. Dont rely on the media for this job, we know they are more invested in the horse race.

[rory_20_uk]

I thought that Tyler Bowyer on Twitter said it best - "This is what we will have if you let Ranked Choice Voting and Independent Redistricting Commissions into your state."

Yes. a country governed mainly by moderates who lean more towards where the Democrats now are / where Republicans were c. 20 years ago.



I'd love such a system to come to the UK where candidates are chosen more on who they are than purely have them picked by the local and central party machinery.

[Montmorency]

You can see my edits clearly; they represent 2019 figures. I believe I also read recently that mortality among young adults has risen to levels not seen since the mid-20th century.

When the New Deal coalition still reigned, American and Western European aggregate life expectancies were roughly equal. Now American life expectancy is probably 3 or 5 years lower.

For reference on Amerindian (the ethnic demographic hit hardest by the pandemic) life expectancy figures, the last time US overall life expectancy was 65 was during WW2.

I wouldn't expect factual rigor from whatever third-echelon TPUSA hack Tyler Bowen is, but I'm genuinely curious how one could construct a scenario in which Idaho, Utah, and Tennessee - three of the most Republican states in the country - go Democratic in presidential elections (RCV or no) while near-balanced purple states like Florida and North Carolina don't. Bifurcating Texas and Florida here definitely deserves explanation. I don't know enough to analogize this to UK constituencies.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I would guess that chart is based on what might have occurred in 2020 if RCV had been in place. I would therefore be leery of it, since knowing that RCV instead of fptp is in place will change voter decisions. Using older data to predict would run into some validity error.

[Montmorency]

You can see my edits clearly; they represent 2019 figures. I believe I also read recently that mortality among young adults has risen to levels not seen since the mid-20th century.

When the New Deal coalition still reigned, American and Western European aggregate life expectancies were roughly equal. Now American life expectancy is probably 3 or 5 years lower.

For reference on Amerindian (the ethnic demographic hit hardest by the pandemic) life expectancy figures, the last time US overall life expectancy was 65 was during WW2.

GREAT POWER SOMETHING OR OTHER

One of many reasons the American state has been losing legitimacy for a generation.

I would guess that chart is based on what might have occurred in 2020 if RCV had been in place. I would therefore be leery of it, since knowing that RCV instead of fptp is in place will change voter decisions. Using older data to predict would run into some validity error.

Yeah, that's what I was saying, in that I was skeptical of what underlying data could have been used to generate a result like that.

[Montmorency]

Confirmation that the majority of Republican electeds have become 2020 Truthers.

[Montmorency]

It's just been the same shit for the past decade but Dem electeds are still basically devoted to the politics of normalcy and civility, which in the long-term has had an incredibly corrosive effect on the readiness and mobilization of both the liberal coalition and the party infrastructure.


We can finally comment on the closing stretch to the midterms, two weeks out. There has been, as predicted, a reversion to the mean in public sentiment, though some still maintain the existence of a reproductive-rights swing vote. The reversion doesn't seem to be related to the modest recent reversal (0.15-20c) in gas prices, as the trends preceded it and were smooth during it. The summary from 2 months ago fundamentally still applies:

47-53 Dem Senators, though now 49-51 is the likeliest range. I suspect they maintain the 50-50 split with a one-for-one exchange, but if either of the races in Georgia and Pennsylvania turn out to be flubs as well the Republicans have the majority.
House majority of around 15 seats for Republicans (~230).

The most disturbing development is that Dem gubernatorial candidates have lately slid in the polls in many states, to the point that 5 races are competitive rather than just 2. These are Arizona and Kansas plus Wisconsin, Oregon, and Nevada, with all but Arizona staking Dem incumbency. Losing the governor's office in Wisconsin and falling short of it in Arizona guarantees that those states will declare for the Republican presidential nominee in 2024 if the Democrat carries the vote. (Oregon is at risk today because of the combination of an unpopular incumbent governor and an unusually-strong third-party entrant.)

[Hooahguy]

So how about that midterm huh lol.

I think we are looking at a 51-49 Democrat Senate, plus a narrow GOP House. Honestly if the NY Dem party didnt flub so badly on everything from redistricting to GOTV, we might have kept the House and Senate. Bummer. But on the plus side, the various NY republicans who won in purple districts might not touch impeachment because of how badly it would be used against them in 2024. Also I dont think McCarthy is Speaker in any case, nobody likes him lol

But hey, at least Boebert might lose her seat? Suuuper close race. (as of writing this, the Dem challenger is up 50.01% to 49.99%)