Mass Effect 17er [Game Thread]

[Hally]

uh, i didn’t bold anything but it was supposed to be “the way wagons were yesterday suggest that she's more likely town than scum” @pzelda

[GeneralHankerchief]

Just gonna lay it out there I guess: Rask is (probably) dying and I think he's gonna flip town. I know it's the easiest thing in the world to look like you don't have a care in the world when you have a giant timer counting down to your doom, but, well, he does.

dya, OTOH, is... I don't think it's looking good for them. I get that they're still probably busy and everything, but even when they were around in the thread at SOD last night (US time), I wasn't really a fan of what they did with their time. The Esooa focus and kind of sticking on the point where Esooa would have known why she was voting for who she was seems kind of weak. dya does this thing a lot where they bite down hard and don't really let go as town, and this looks like an attempt to replicate it, but I think it's a deadly combination of it being a bad place to bite down and the push not having much bite in the first place (yes, I'm aware this is coming from me whose bite has also been somewhat lacking to this point, but still).

So, if I'm right, this obviously leaves me in an... unfortunate situation, considering associatives and stated EOD motives, etc. What do I intend to do about it? I don't want to go fully diving into the [Rask town/dya mafia] world because I could just as easily be wrong about one or both outcomes and waste a ton of effort on my end.

Hally and pzelda are my ride or die towns. I haven't played with Hally as much as dya has, but I have played with Hally a bunch recently and I find it kind of odd that dya's hesitating so much on landing on Hally town here. It seems fairly obvious from my POV. Esooa's pushes on pzelda recently do little for me; I'm a lot interested in his progressions looking good than seeing overall, sustained, and comprehensive solving effort from him, and I'm pretty sure that's what I'm getting. Ara and Esooa are a level below my top two, I have Monty as light town, and that's pretty much it in terms of my towns. [Visor/Ephemeral/Dolby/ColonelBop/Manti/Manasi/Cuth], 4 in here minus any red flips we get from Rask/dya. I'm gonna see what I can do about kicking a couple names out of this list and go from there.

To head off any questions, Visor is probably my biggest drop on this from yesterday and I think it has to do in large part to how he's treating my slot; I find it hard to believe that he, specifically, has locked himself into a mafia!GH world and is solving around from there and that he really can't even entertain a town motive in my actions.

mostly after thinking over how d1 went

i disliked ghs d1 so much that its completely coloured my world view and the fact that he jumped on my amy read without a care in the world and couldnt be dragged kicking and screaming onto dya despite his own noted similarities

i think i was just wrong on amy and jumped on stuff that sounded bad

rask has posted ok so far, not tonally amazing like he was in stormtossed where i dont think i strugged at all to v read him but enough posting (and with some frustrationfrom him) that even though he is gonna die today i think he is probably a villager

The bolded line specifically is just atrocious considering how many times I've explained my thought process w/r/t preferring Amy/Rask over dya on d1 and him just outright refusing to recognize it, I've spent too much time and effort on it already and at this point I think he's willfully misinterpreting my posts to get what he wants.

[Hally]

yeah the jump back on eph was just weird

and he made no effort to drag others onto it, he spent half his posts defending the push to epehemeral himself instead of getting anything done

Vote: GeneralHankerchief

guess we can start a counter

vote: gh

[dyachei]

looks like she also suspected visor for long posts

[dyachei]

Just gonna lay it out there I guess: Rask is (probably) dying and I think he's gonna flip town. I know it's the easiest thing in the world to look like you don't have a care in the world when you have a giant timer counting down to your doom, but, well, he does.

dya, OTOH, is... I don't think it's looking good for them. I get that they're still probably busy and everything, but even when they were around in the thread at SOD last night (US time), I wasn't really a fan of what they did with their time. The Esooa focus and kind of sticking on the point where Esooa would have known why she was voting for who she was seems kind of weak. dya does this thing a lot where they bite down hard and don't really let go as town, and this looks like an attempt to replicate it, but I think it's a deadly combination of it being a bad place to bite down and the push not having much bite in the first place (yes, I'm aware this is coming from me whose bite has also been somewhat lacking to this point, but still).

So, if I'm right, this obviously leaves me in an... unfortunate situation, considering associatives and stated EOD motives, etc. What do I intend to do about it? I don't want to go fully diving into the [Rask town/dya mafia] world because I could just as easily be wrong about one or both outcomes and waste a ton of effort on my end.

Hally and pzelda are my ride or die towns. I haven't played with Hally as much as dya has, but I have played with Hally a bunch recently and I find it kind of odd that dya's hesitating so much on landing on Hally town here. It seems fairly obvious from my POV. Esooa's pushes on pzelda recently do little for me; I'm a lot interested in his progressions looking good than seeing overall, sustained, and comprehensive solving effort from him, and I'm pretty sure that's what I'm getting. Ara and Esooa are a level below my top two, I have Monty as light town, and that's pretty much it in terms of my towns. [Visor/Ephemeral/Dolby/ColonelBop/Manti/Manasi/Cuth], 4 in here minus any red flips we get from Rask/dya. I'm gonna see what I can do about kicking a couple names out of this list and go from there.

To head off any questions, Visor is probably my biggest drop on this from yesterday and I think it has to do in large part to how he's treating my slot; I find it hard to believe that he, specifically, has locked himself into a mafia!GH world and is solving around from there and that he really can't even entertain a town motive in my actions.



The bolded line specifically is just atrocious considering how many times I've explained my thought process w/r/t preferring Amy/Rask over dya on d1 and him just outright refusing to recognize it, I've spent too much time and effort on it already and at this point I think he's willfully misinterpreting my posts to get what he wants.

I played with hally in finale where they seemed villa at first but weren't

[Hally]

I don't find myself having much of an issue with rask's posts rn I think

it's a low bar but tonally and in the way he's poking at stuff he seems ~fine

That said I'm fine with leaving the decision of whether to heal him or not up to popular vote��

yeah, he seems alright

[dyachei]

@Esooa

can you explain why you asked me multiple times about getting into the game? what did you hope your questioning would do?

[GeneralHankerchief]

I played with hally in finale where they seemed villa at first but weren't

Ok, anything else about Hally that should give me pause?

[Hally]

@Hally

How do you feel about Esooa's posts if you were to compare them with a couple of villa/wolf games from over on MU?

afaik you've played with her more than once before right? I'm mostly interested in whether or not the tonal difference/more background-ish approach I'm seeing from her here when comparing to team game means anything

i don’t think she’s really been in the background here? but re: the difference in aggression/tone, i’ve noticed it but i don’t think it’s AI. she’s playing her first game on a new site with almost all new people and iirc she said D1 that she was embarrassed about the impression she made in team game/was nervous about playing with some of us again because of that. her dialing back her aggression is consistent with that and not something i’m going to hold against her

[dyachei]

Ok, anything else about Hally that should give me pause?

not specifically but that's why I'm wary of them. I need to see how things progress to get a good read there

hally does have their own cases but tends to be a little more sheepy as village as days go on

[Hally]

I really dislike these 3 posts above. In his reads lists he puts Eph only at null with GH in v, and later says the influence to put Eph in his null's was partially because of GH's case. However, in the 3rd quote, he agrees that GH looked bad and that GH's jump back to Eph looked bad, so I'm not sure why that's influencing him? I'm curious too why Ara and Cuth might be town cored for not having scum agenda or disruptive play, because these are both just as applicable to Eph.



And expresses apprehension here to vote GH, primarily from what I can pick up because GH cased Dolby early on. This was SoD1, and there was little to no follow up on it. I don't get why he's considering this much.

@pzelda if you can explain your Eph read a bit more that'd be cool

fwiw i played with v!capage in sf3 and this doesn’t concern me coming from him. he’s kind of like a weathervane. as in, he changes his mind a lot even from post to post because he gets easily influenced by other people’s opinions and his mind seems to go in a lot of different directions. this sort of thing is what kept him in the poe D1 because people tend to find it wolfy, but i think it’s villagery for capage (and maybe even in general). it’s just kinda how he operates and i’m pretty confident he’s a villager here

[GeneralHankerchief]

not specifically but that's why I'm wary of them. I need to see how things progress to get a good read there

hally does have their own cases but tends to be a little more sheepy as village as days go on

dya, I am really trying to hold back here, because I've certainly had my share of games where I just Haven't Had It as town and know that this could come from either alignment. I think that your RL demands are impacting your play and your posting would be different regardless, and I'm trying not to make things even more frustrating for you.

But you just feel super out of vibe with the thread and not in a way that's NAI to me. Like, you see the votes and focus on you; secondarily, you've had me as steady town to varying degrees over the course of the game. You and I are being linked together and we're taking the most heat of anybody ITT. From your POV, where you're a) town and b) correct, you should be seeing that things are about to get disastrous here if things hold their current course, but I'm not seeing any inkling of real urgency or fire from you. I really am trying to picture myself as somebody who just doesn't have time and is doing what I can, but I still think that if this was true, and if you were town, it'd be coming out differently.

Like you've expressed skepticism about Hally but the most you can do with it is "well I need more time" with nothing super concrete about it besides the fact that they get sheepier as town, as time progresses.
Your biggest push and focus has been on Esooa so far, and from my POV it's mostly focusing the issue of "doesn't remember why she voted who she did on d1" which just... doesn't do anything for me.

I truly am sorry if you're town here and I'm just piling on to what's already being a tough gameday for you, but right now I'm just not seeing enough.

[Cuthillius]

I also think Rask seems villagery, GH's post right there was... bad on both Visor and Dya but it is plausibly the reaction he has (see: alpacas) to Visor making the push, though I really don't see the reasoning. Pzelda seems unaligned with Dya. Still like Eph, think Esooa's like 75% to me locking her in but hasn't quite gotten to the depth I'd look for. Manasi pushes are boring, just poison her if she keeps not existing but it's very close to rand either direction.

[Hally]

gh, i share visor’s concerns about your D1 specifically if we’re living in a w!dya world and think they’re entirely justified. obviously i know you’re not gonna admit to being a wolf but i think you should be able to acknowledge there’s cause for concern

[dyachei]

dya, I am really trying to hold back here, because I've certainly had my share of games where I just Haven't Had It as town and know that this could come from either alignment. I think that your RL demands are impacting your play and your posting would be different regardless, and I'm trying not to make things even more frustrating for you.

But you just feel super out of vibe with the thread and not in a way that's NAI to me. Like, you see the votes and focus on you; secondarily, you've had me as steady town to varying degrees over the course of the game. You and I are being linked together and we're taking the most heat of anybody ITT. From your POV, where you're a) town and b) correct, you should be seeing that things are about to get disastrous here if things hold their current course, but I'm not seeing any inkling of real urgency or fire from you. I really am trying to picture myself as somebody who just doesn't have time and is doing what I can, but I still think that if this was true, and if you were town, it'd be coming out differently.

Like you've expressed skepticism about Hally but the most you can do with it is "well I need more time" with nothing super concrete about it besides the fact that they get sheepier as town, as time progresses.
Your biggest push and focus has been on Esooa so far, and from my POV it's mostly focusing the issue of "doesn't remember why she voted who she did on d1" which just... doesn't do anything for me.

I truly am sorry if you're town here and I'm just piling on to what's already being a tough gameday for you, but right now I'm just not seeing enough.

i havent read hally's iso yet, I'm still in esooas


and i guess there is no urgency because people don't feel like they're going to take what I'm saying into account. I had like 4 votes first thing last night

even i know when i'm a lost cause

i'm just gonna keep trying to solve through isos and leave a legacy

[Ephemeral]

i don’t think she’s really been in the background here? but re: the difference in aggression/tone, i’ve noticed it but i don’t think it’s AI. she’s playing her first game on a new site with almost all new people and iirc she said D1 that she was embarrassed about the impression she made in team game/was nervous about playing with some of us again because of that. her dialing back her aggression is consistent with that and not something i’m going to hold against her

aye that's a good point

[Hally]

dya, the impression i get from your read on me is that you feel like v!you would be paranoid of me and so you’re trying to replicate that to hide your tmi. it’s like you think it would look bad if you v read me too easily given you do tend to be more wary of me than most but you’re stretching it past the point where it would have become obvious to you that i’m villaging if you were genuinely trying to read me

[dyachei]

like I'm damned if i do damned if I don't

with esooa it was a hard ping for me.

I like that they kind of bounce around d1 with their reads. I don't think they're w/w with dolby based on how she talks about him but I find her push on visor for being "weird" weird. like you wanna talk about random reasons to read someone - it was based on post length

so i'm still leaning wolf there but not as hard as i was this morning

[dyachei]

dya, the impression i get from your read on me is that you feel like v!you would be paranoid of me and so you’re trying to replicate that to hide your tmi. it’s like you think it would look bad if you v read me too easily given you do tend to be more wary of me than most but you’re stretching it past the point where it would have become obvious to you that i’m villaging if you were genuinely trying to read me

this is a really uncool read. you're coming into it with preconceived notions and just confbiasing yourself into the same read

I feel like you should be attempting to talk to me but you're really just talking at me and it feels bad

[dyachei]

vote: dyachei

this game is a disappointment for everyone when looking at me so why not just get it over with

[Hally]

I also think Rask seems villagery, GH's post right there was... bad on both Visor and Dya but it is plausibly the reaction he has (see: alpacas) to Visor making the push, though I really don't see the reasoning. Pzelda seems unaligned with Dya. Still like Eph, think Esooa's like 75% to me locking her in but hasn't quite gotten to the depth I'd look for. Manasi pushes are boring, just poison her if she keeps not existing but it's very close to rand either direction.

can you give me a quick tiered list or something? it’s kinda bothering me that i don’t have a read on you yet

[dyachei]

people aren't trying to read what I'm doing, they're assuming activity tells are ever AI for me

[GeneralHankerchief]

gh, i share visor’s concerns about your D1 specifically if we’re living in a w!dya world and think they’re entirely justified. obviously i know you’re not gonna admit to being a wolf but i think you should be able to acknowledge there’s cause for concern

There is absolutely cause for concern with me if dya is mafia and I fully acknowledge this. My EOD behavior was openly and admittedly designed to keep dya alive and I will fully cop to it and own up to my mistakes if this ends up being the case. However, where I have an issue is with people not understanding why I prioritized Amy/Rask over dya in the first place, when I said it (and why) many many times over the course of D1 and D2:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I think this is a good take.

I don't think either of them posted well enough to have townreads slapped on them at that point, and Visor (at least I think it's Visor? I could be equating him with someone else) has been notably good at slapping people down from reading him too early in the past before. So I think his Steamed Hams response (the long vertical pic) to Amy's townread of him tracked with that, but then he just... kind of backed off and finished the meme, rather than explore it further. A little weird of Amy to put down that read at that point, a little weird of Visor to respond to it/finish off the conversation in that way.

I wish it had happened something like 12-24 hours later than it actually did because then the lingering caveat of "well, game's still early" could have been removed, but it'll be something to watch for sure.

Maybe? I mean I don't think it's an instant rule-out. I think Amy is the more likely of the two to be bad from it, just because I went back and reread it and Visor's conclusion of finishing the meme off came immediately after he posted the pic and not because of a response from Amy in between.

I mentioned more than once that I didn't feel all that good about Amy's and Visor's interaction, specifically regarding the bit around Steamed Hams, and I liked how Visor came in hot/the way he did and thought it was pretty townie of him to do so in that exact way. I don't really have a specific read on Amy beyond me not liking that interaction, but my general thought upon moving my vote to Amy was "sure, we can roll with this".

Seems good enough to me.

Town
pzelda | Hally | Esooa

Town enough
Ara | Visor

Town for now
Sunbae | Colonel | Csargo

Unsure/no data available
Cuth | Manasi | Maple | Monty

Concerns
Dolby | Ephemeral | Amy

Not really ordered within tiers. Going to bed now, will answer followups (if any) in the AM.

There's always one. dya probably goes in one of the two bottom categories, let's be generous and say "unsure/no data available" for now.

There are two interesting pairs in this game that I've noticed:

Pair 1: The "lacking" duo of Ampharos/dyachei
Both have come under heavy scrutiny here and "lackingness" has been a big part of why. For dya especially, their posts haven't been actively bad, just Not Town Dya. This can be easily explained by their given excuse and I think I'd buy it regardless of their actual alignment, but that still leaves the problem of what to do with their actual posts. As for Amy, I think her posting has been outright scummier, for her early Visor take (which I and others picked up on), and for her supposed shift in thinking w/r/t basis for reading people (which Sunbae picked up on and I don't disagree with). There's nothing here that says the two of them, Amy and dya, can't be paired, and overall I'm mostly including them here to set up a contrast between the second pair I want to talk about. If we're going here today, I think I'd go with Amy over dya due to some outright problems as opposed to overall lacking-ness, but would probably not be surprised at either of them flipping as either alignment.

[QUOTE=GeneralHankerchief;2053814385]I guess overall, and barring further developments, I'd like to chop within Eph/Dolby/[Amy if it comes to it] today as per my above walls. Amy and dya both get a courtesy of giving them time to get into things, but Amy less so because I feel like she's been somewhat actively wolfy as opposed to dya, who just hasn't really done much. I'm not interested in chopping Monty today, though I reserve the right to put him back on the table D2 depending on how things go. Neither am I interested in chopping Maple today, I feel like that would be stupid and feel like people are just kind of baseline scumreading him due to seeing him a LOT as mafia recently. I'm not seeing what they're seeing here.

If we're going between Amy and dya, I'd much rather it be Amy, simply because I think there are more active negatives for Amy than there are with dya.

All of these quotes in the spoiler come well before EOD1 and detail my thinking over why I preferred Amy/Rask over dya, and considering I already talked about it again at SOD2 I really don't think it bears continued repeating. There are perfectly valid reasons to push me and I will grant that my associatives will look absolutely atrocious if Rask flips town and if dya flips mafia. However, pushing me from a perspective of "I don't understand why he treated Amy differently from dya" is far, far different than "he tried to save the one mafia who was viable at EOD". One actually makes sense. The other, especially considering I have explained it time and again, is approaching the territory of "actively failing to listen".

[Cuthillius]

Hally, where are we at if dya v?

[Ephemeral]

dya what do you want to chat about

[Hally]

this is a really uncool read. you're coming into it with preconceived notions and just confbiasing yourself into the same read

I feel like you should be attempting to talk to me but you're really just talking at me and it feels bad

i’m sorry, i’m not trying to frustrate you but i’m just not vibing with your posts

i want to engage with you more but it’s hard when all you’ve been talking about so far this day is your esooa read, which i don’t agree with. is there anything else we can talk about?

[Hally]

vote: dyachei

this game is a disappointment for everyone when looking at me so why not just get it over with

oh dear

[Cuthillius]

Eph, can i get a sentence each on: hally, monty, dolby?

[dyachei]

dya what do you want to chat about

I dont even know. people are just talking about and at me though, not to me. And it sucks to be told what a disappointment I am over and over again

[Hally]

dya, i’m really sorry if i upset you. i’m going to leave you be, okay?