Great Power contentions

[spmetla]

Surely it depends on the foe and their current weaponry. The A10 especially was designed from the ground up to take a horrific amount of damage - one engine and half of one wing can be lost, there's two hydraulic systems to fly and a mechanical backup.

Sure, flying into an area where the S300 is deployed is probably suicidal, but there are probably cases where the risk is worth the reward.

Long term drones are almost certainly the way forward but as yet there are just not the numbers.

Were the US to do a 'no fly zone' the A-10 would certainly not be in the initial lineup, it'd have to be F-35s and more modern platforms at first. Once those S300s, S400s and so on were neutralized to a certain degree the A10 would then be an ideal CAS platform even with MANPADs in the area for the reasons you've listed.
Just like the B-52 isn't a frontline bomber anymore it is extremely useful in the various roles the USAF have for it, not all platforms need to be top tier high end at all.

Was the same in desert storm, it took F-117s to pave the way in the most contested air space together with the full support of EW platforms and simultaneous strikes on supporting radars, SAM batteries, and command nodes. This type of "Joint" operations is what makes the US so effective and clearly as we've seen by the Russians, hard to imitate as it goes beyond just having systems but the right planning to mesh it all together.

Drones are definitely the way forward but I don't think there will ever be a true replacement for manned aircraft in the CAS role as the descriptions from ground observers to the pilot can be very vague and sometimes take some creative actions to describe or mark where the enemy is and importantly where the friendlies are. Current drones with limited fields of vision can't have the full situational awareness a pilot of a manned aircraft can.

I wonder if the transition to contract/professional soldiers - ~70% of current active military - along with downsizing of combat formations just enabled corruption and misappropriation along the way. The Soviet army was feared for good reason.

The Russian leadership seems to not have really looked at their 'whole force' when doing reforms. They may have more professional soldiers but looking at their performance the last few weeks it looks like their training hasn't been anywhere near combat standards. From what I understand Russian and Chinese 'wargames' are not like US/NATO ones. In their armies the wargames are highly scripted and rehearsed which deprives them from identifying the problems and doesn't allow for the development of low-level leadership.
The US Army had similar problems in the post-Vietnam army but the development of NTC and JRTC for high level training at the closest possible to combat as can be safely replicated allowed for the US Army to become a 'learning organization' which is why the Army that went into desert storm did not look at all like the army that went into Vietnam or Grenada.
At NTC and JRTC, the opposing force (OPFOR) is designed to beat you, they are supposed to stress every element of whatever unit goes in for a rotation so that problems can be found and fixed. I doubt that the highly centralized and political loyal Russian and Chinese armies allow for such realistic training.

Looking at the poor combat formations, poor maintenance, and poor integration of all their various enabling capabilities (artillery, UAVs, engineers, other combat arms) I think the Russians focused too much on systems instead of their organization. They certainly have the technology but that's clearly not be spread to the lowest Soldier as we look at AK-74s with no optics, no night vision and so on. Same in the other branches, the amount of outdated hardware being sent into a major conflict is surprising. The T-72 tank was proved as obsolete decades ago yet they are more common than the T-80s and T-90s. The Russian air force has the capability to do EW like the US but we don't seem to see that so perhaps they are short on platforms too.

I read somewhere that the Russian arms industry has been producing around a few dozen fighter/strike jets a year for a long time. It's supposed to be worth it for getting the Russian Air Force to almost all new or modernized frames. (Whereas existing US facilities could surge an F35 a day in theory.)

At the losses they are taking right now that production rate won't be sufficient, especially when you consider the spare parts that need to be made just to keep the current airframes air worthy. That's of course assuming those parts aren't dependent on things in their supply chains that just got sanctioned, thinking microchips for avionics, navigation, and targeting systems specifically.
The F-35 is looking to be ramped up anyhow in production and as more nations have bought it the unit cost has reduced drastically though still much higher than legacy airframes.
Lockheed Martin will deliver “133-139 aircraft this year [calendar 2021], 151-153 aircraft in 2022, and anticipates delivering 156 aircraft beginning in 2023 and for the foreseeable future,” it announced. The company did not say how many of each variant will be delivered. Defense officials have said the pre-pandemic goal was to achieve deliveries of 155 airplanes a year by the end of 2022.
https://www.airforcemag.com/f-35-pro...ion%20facility.

Russia counts on sanctions help from China; U.S. warns off Beijing
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...na-2022-03-13/

But U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said Washington was warning China not to provide it.

"We are communicating directly, privately to Beijing, that there will absolutely be consequences for large-scale sanctions, evasion efforts or support to Russia to backfill them," Sullivan told CNN.

"We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country, anywhere in the world," added Sullivan, who is due to meet China's top diplomat Yang Jiechi in Rome on Monday.

Watching how China plays out in this war will be extremely interesting. Russia supposedly asking for help from China in UAVs and other things isn't surprising but should be a giant sign to the Russian fanboys that Putin has misled Russia which is now needing help from what really is its biggest rival if they could just stop trying to recreate the USSR in Europe.
I imagine that China will of course support Russia but not in terms of hardware as this sudden show of western unity could backlash hard on China and lead to a serious 'de-coupling' in the future if given reasons to do so. I'd expect China to support economically, probably provide plenty of aid and buy as much Russian energy as they need but nothing beyond that. Risking western sanctions when China is economically precarious too risks internal unrest, something I think Chinese leadership will consider not worth the cost, especially for the last 'colonial power' in Asia.