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Thread: Great Power contentions

  1. #421
    BrownWings: AirViceMarshall Senior Member Furunculus's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Ukraine just sank Russia's battleship (cruiser).

    BTW, spmetla, do you buy now that a swarm of Iranian ASM could sink a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz?
    this was always possible, and has become formalised in doctrine as the Royal Marines and USMC reconfigure away from mass over the beach to distributed operations. the risk from large and long range ASM's pushes vulnerable amphibious ships too far off shore for it to be their main role.

    but the Moskva sinking appears to be incompetence rather than obsolescence:

    https://twitter.com/alessionaval/sta...29987101175811

    there are counters to all these problems, and they simply require that you use naval assets in a different way than was true before. but then it was ever thus; although lip-service is often paid to the military as a learning organisation generally, the ones that win wars do so by evolving their operation faster than their adversary can adapt to.

    in the case of hormuz, not only is the threat growing but the importance of the gulf is diminishing. so, the US simply won't put capital assets there in future. it is notable that the UK's indo-pac strategy focuses on Oman rather than Bahrain. the Royal Navy's Indo-Pac role should be seen as 'guardian of the SLOCs' rather than 'guarantor of the Sheiks'.
    Last edited by Furunculus; 04-15-2022 at 09:07.
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  2. #422
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    ...BTW, spmetla, do you buy now that a swarm of Iranian ASM could sink a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz?
    The carrier driver folks I knew back in Virginia was always concerned by that stuff. USN damage control approach is top notch, the ships up-to-date and maintained, the defense layered...but in a narrows with limited maneuver and given enough incoming then nothing is guaranteed. You can never discount the "golden BB" effect when you are the one getting hit.
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  3. #423

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    26 FEB 2020, 03:11
    Christian relic, a True Cross piece, to be kept at Russia?s Black Sea fleet flagship


    WTAF this is some movie shit. Hail Satan.


    Quote Originally Posted by Furunculus View Post
    this was always possible, and has become formalised in doctrine as the Royal Marines and USMC reconfigure away from mass over the beach to distributed operations. the risk from large and long range ASM's pushes vulnerable amphibious ships too far off shore for it to be their main role.

    but the Moskva sinking appears to be incompetence rather than obsolescence:

    https://twitter.com/alessionaval/sta...29987101175811

    there are counters to all these problems, and they simply require that you use naval assets in a different way than was true before. but then it was ever thus; although lip-service is often paid to the military as a learning organisation generally, the ones that win wars do so by evolving their operation faster than their adversary can adapt to.

    in the case of hormuz, not only is the threat growing but the importance of the gulf is diminishing. so, the US simply won't put capital assets there in future. it is notable that the UK's indo-pac strategy focuses on Oman rather than Bahrain. the Royal Navy's Indo-Pac role should be seen as 'guardian of the SLOCs' rather than 'guarantor of the Sheiks'.
    It must also be noted that Russia cannot afford to maintain such a large and varied surface fleet.

    But maintaining open seas has been the US grand strategy since 1945, so the UK is late to the game, though I'm sure it's worth its weight in anti-piracy operations, whatever good those are.

    I wasn't referring to amphibious operations in Iran; an invasion itself would be suicidal (as was known long before the middle-state precision revolution unfolded), a contested landing on the coast doubly so. I just mean the mere presence of an American fleet in the strait might be too risky to allow during high tensions or wartime given Ukraine AARs and the additional context of Iran's entire naval strategy being oriented around sinking or damaging carrier fleets.

    Smaller militaries can hit hard under the right conditions. It's not just China that needs to take lessons from this debacle.

    but the Moskva sinking appears to be incompetence rather than obsolescence:
    From what has been reported, the Ukrainians used the double cover of a storm and a UAV distraction to strike through the blind interval of the ship's radars. Presumably the IADS on the vessel would have easily countered the incoming missiles in a straight fight, since there were only two of them.

    Speaking of lessons, if Ukraine wins the war the Ukrainian Army (and AF) will have survived to veritably attain the status of the most skilled and experienced military organization on the planet (in conventional warfare). They should be demanding debt forgiveness and other benefits in exchange for training NATO militaries.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-15-2022 at 19:39.
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  4. #424

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    How the Russians could have propagandized Moskva:



    What they went with:

    Vitiate Man.

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  5. #425
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    How the Russians could have propagandized Moskva:



    What they went with:

    The Russians will raise the Moskva for a space-faring mission.


  6. #426
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    BTW, spmetla, do you buy now that a swarm of Iranian ASM could sink a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz?
    It could of course, it is always possible. A US Carrier Task Force though does have a lot of defensive firepower though so it'd take a few factors to get through the missile defense and screening ships.
    The USS Cole was almost sunk by a zodiac with a bomb aboard, no ships are invulnerable. The USS Missouri was almost hit in the Gulf War by Iraqi ASMs too, a Carrier could also be targeted though generally they'd be farther off shore (something the Persian Gulf naturally makes difficult). The UK Task Force in the Falklands lost several ships to ASMs too. They are a very capable threat but just like ATGMs are a threat to Tanks it doesn't make them obsolete either.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDfDnZ7FiZg

    The Moskva wasn't exactly a top-notch air defense platform though, despite the limited upgrades over time. It's employment also does make it seem as if the Russians didn't take a Ukrainian ASM threat seriously as its screens couldn't protect it.
    This together with the Russian Navy not having really had modern threat exercises or any combat experience beyond shore bombardment/support probably means their tactics to defend against modern threats was sub-par.

    Also, if the Russian Navy is anything like its army and air force then we can expect poorly trained crews with poor equipment and leadership attempting to do damage control and failing. Looking at the Russian coverup of the Kursk incident in peace-time I can't imagine we'll get any new light shed on this from the Russian side anytime soon.

    Edit: Interesting video using the DCS game to try and see how it could be sunk in this flight sim as well. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bxwh6MGLJNc
    Last edited by spmetla; 04-17-2022 at 08:38.

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    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

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  7. #427

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    It is undeniable that any American fleet will have a much stronger defensive screen than a lone cruiser (for comparison, the Slava-class cruiser is equivalent in size to a WW2-era Brooklyn-class cruiser, of which the USS Phoenix/ARA General Belgrano was an example). But by the same token, the Slava-class experienced catastrophic secondary damage from just two missiles, of which the Ukrainian Neptune arsenal could potentially fire 72 near-simultaneously (18 launchers x 4 tubes each, carrying 330lb warheads). So the interesting exercise is to scale the offense to the defense and see how it hashes out, in theory.

    Speaking of which, torpedo drone - that's a new one. Maybe we could procure some from Iran?

    Another lesson of the war: China could never concentrate enough ground power in Taiwan to clear the eastern, mountainous, half of irregular resistance with even moderate foreign naval intervention to contend with.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-17-2022 at 19:46.
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  8. #428
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    It is undeniable that any American fleet will have a much stronger defensive screen than a lone cruiser (for comparison, the Slava-class cruiser is equivalent in size to a WW2-era Brooklyn-class cruiser, of which the USS Phoenix/ARA General Belgrano was an example). But by the same token, the Slava-class experienced catastrophic secondary damage from just two missiles, of which the Ukrainian Neptune arsenal could potentially fire 72 near-simultaneously (18 launchers x 4 tubes each, carrying 330lb warheads). So the interesting exercise is to scale the offense to the defense and see how it hashes out, in theory.

    Speaking of which, torpedo drone - that's a new one. Maybe we could procure some from Iran?

    Another lesson of the war: China could never concentrate enough ground power in Taiwan to clear the eastern, mountainous, half of irregular resistance with even moderate foreign naval intervention to contend with.
    There's a gamer youtube channel called The Mighty Jingles, who used to serve in the Royal Navy. During the Gulf War, his ship, a relatively non-essential vessel, was used to provide defensive cover for a hospital ship. This took the form of interposing its broadside between the hospital ship and any possible incoming missiles, so the missiles would hit it and not the hospital ship.

  9. #429
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    It is undeniable that any American fleet will have a much stronger defensive screen than a lone cruiser (for comparison, the Slava-class cruiser is equivalent in size to a WW2-era Brooklyn-class cruiser, of which the USS Phoenix/ARA General Belgrano was an example). But by the same token, the Slava-class experienced catastrophic secondary damage from just two missiles, of which the Ukrainian Neptune arsenal could potentially fire 72 near-simultaneously (18 launchers x 4 tubes each, carrying 330lb warheads). So the interesting exercise is to scale the offense to the defense and see how it hashes out, in theory.
    A massive volume of missiles would certainly test the defenses of any surface group, looking at the Slava class itself that's exactly what it was designed to do as well, massive launch of super-sonic SSM to attack US Carrier Groups while providing a strong air-defense against those same carrier strike aircraft and missiles too.

    The US Aegis system is designed exactly against such a threat, it's not perfect and missiles will always get through though, which is why battle damage control drills are so damn important. Consider how many US ships have actually sunk from enemy actions and accidents over the last few decades. Almost all have been recovered and put back into service. Crew drills, training, low-level initiative are absolutely important in the chaos of a successful enemy attack. Fleet drills in supporting other ships in duress and good salvage teams/fleet tug boats are all part of what make the USN so successful too and it can't be done on the cheap when projecting power away from your home ports.

    That two missiles knocked it out, is in itself not too crazy, they are designed to take out ships. I'm more amazed that they got through the Moskva's air defenses, it has a lot and looking at the footage of it listing, the sea state and weather doesn't appear to have been an inital factor.

    Interesting Twitter thread on looking at the eventual sinking:
    https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/statu...37566356008961
    So it's likely been fully abandoned. It's possible that some people remain down below but staying in the engine room without proper boundary cooling and topside assistance from trained shipboard firefighters would be suicidal.
    By most accounts, this flagship ship was critical to these war efforts. My best assumption - again based on too little evidence - is because of
    1) the importance of this ship to the war effort
    2) because the Montreux convention prevents Russia from sending a replacement
    3) the calm weather, reserve buoyancy, and the fact she still had power means she could possibly have been saved
    4) the fact the helideck was smoke-free

    For these reasons my best guess is the captain of the Moskva abandoned his ship too early.
    Edit: Interesting videos on some discussion on what failures enabled the sinking:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgM4tAvnlL4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snjfbj_EwW4 These guys aren't experts but are fairly knowledgeable.

    Another lesson of the war: China could never concentrate enough ground power in Taiwan to clear the eastern, mountainous, half of irregular resistance with even moderate foreign naval intervention to contend with.
    Absolutely, I think China is seeing that they need to absolutely be able to create a blockade to prevent any weapons making it in after any open war starts.
    For the counter-insurgency, guerilla fight I imagine they saw the value that Ukrainian connectivity to the world was for rallying resistance and international support so somehow cutting Taiwan off completely from the internet/outside world would be key to allow for the authoritarian style crushing of resistance currently pursued by Russia.
    Also, I think they've seen the value that a real leader like Zelensky can have on rallying people to the flag. A lesser man would have fled the country as we offered him and who knows what that would have meant to the Ukrainian war effort. A decapitation strike or some sort of initial civil unrest (perhaps contesting election results....) may be needed to ensure a lack of Taiwan unity against a PRC invasion.

    As for the foreign naval intervention, I think China is seeing that the only thing keeping the West limited in its support to Ukraine is the nuclear threat. Banking on the West being soft and not wanting to suffer economic consequences is probably no longer viable (except perhaps Germany and Austria cough cough).
    If nuclear force is threatened that may be the only thing that deters the US. However, I think the US would call the bluff and attempt to resupply Taiwan under US flagged ships thereby making any outright act of war a PRC action so that the US isn't seen as escalating it.

    To me though, this only underscores the absolute necessity of some sort of 'trip-wire' force in Taiwan to ensure that no number of weak-knees and spinelessness cause the US to back out of supporting Taiwan. Doing so would force any future union between the PRC and ROC to be done mutually and diplomatically, perhaps in a future in which the PRC has somehow liberalized or the ROC populace has bought into authoritarian-mercantilist-communism. Either way, a peaceful unification or divergence down their own paths should be the goal.
    Last edited by spmetla; 04-18-2022 at 23:46.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
    -Abraham Lincoln


    Four stage strategy from Yes, Minister:
    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

  10. #430
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Pannonian View Post
    There's a gamer youtube channel called The Mighty Jingles, who used to serve in the Royal Navy. During the Gulf War, his ship, a relatively non-essential vessel, was used to provide defensive cover for a hospital ship. This took the form of interposing its broadside between the hospital ship and any possible incoming missiles, so the missiles would hit it and not the hospital ship.
    That is actually part of the training for all escort vessels. At the last instance they are to interpose themselves between the protected ship(s) and low flying missiles or torpedoes if possible. Not the part of the job that goes into the recruiting videos.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  11. #431
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    The time frame of the sinking does lead me to think it was a damage control issue. That said, it only took one missile to bring about HNS Sheffield's demise -- as you note, they are designed to break ships.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

  12. #432

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    I've now seen at least two videos of BMPs with 30mm autocannons conflagrating or seriously damaging a Russian MBT (T-72/80). The extreme effectiveness of artillery against armor in this war was already something else, but a 30mm gun killing an MBT is brain-breaking. I'm far from a military buff, but I've had to throw out much of what I thought I knew about military hardware, and strategy. Even in WW2 the universal 37mm AT guns at the outset of the war were almost immediately obsolete against common tank types.

    So does this mean a Sherman tank could knock out an Abrams without an unreasonable amount of luck?



    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    A massive volume of missiles would certainly test the defenses of any surface group, looking at the Slava class itself that's exactly what it was designed to do as well, massive launch of super-sonic SSM to attack US Carrier Groups while providing a strong air-defense against those same carrier strike aircraft and missiles too.

    The US Aegis system is designed exactly against such a threat, it's not perfect and missiles will always get through though, which is why battle damage control drills are so damn important. Consider how many US ships have actually sunk from enemy actions and accidents over the last few decades. Almost all have been recovered and put back into service. Crew drills, training, low-level initiative are absolutely important in the chaos of a successful enemy attack. Fleet drills in supporting other ships in duress and good salvage teams/fleet tug boats are all part of what make the USN so successful too and it can't be done on the cheap when projecting power away from your home ports.

    That two missiles knocked it out, is in itself not too crazy, they are designed to take out ships. I'm more amazed that they got through the Moskva's air defenses, it has a lot and looking at the footage of it listing, the sea state and weather doesn't appear to have been an inital factor.

    Interesting Twitter thread on looking at the eventual sinking:
    https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/statu...37566356008961

    Edit: Interesting videos on some discussion on what failures enabled the sinking:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgM4tAvnlL4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snjfbj_EwW4 These guys aren't experts but are fairly knowledgeable.


    Absolutely, I think China is seeing that they need to absolutely be able to create a blockade to prevent any weapons making it in after any open war starts.
    For the counter-insurgency, guerilla fight I imagine they saw the value that Ukrainian connectivity to the world was for rallying resistance and international support so somehow cutting Taiwan off completely from the internet/outside world would be key to allow for the authoritarian style crushing of resistance currently pursued by Russia.
    Also, I think they've seen the value that a real leader like Zelensky can have on rallying people to the flag. A lesser man would have fled the country as we offered him and who knows what that would have meant to the Ukrainian war effort. A decapitation strike or some sort of initial civil unrest (perhaps contesting election results....) may be needed to ensure a lack of Taiwan unity against a PRC invasion.

    As for the foreign naval intervention, I think China is seeing that the only thing keeping the West limited in its support to Ukraine is the nuclear threat. Banking on the West being soft and not wanting to suffer economic consequences is probably no longer viable (except perhaps Germany and Austria cough cough).
    If nuclear force is threatened that may be the only thing that deters the US. However, I think the US would call the bluff and attempt to resupply Taiwan under US flagged ships thereby making any outright act of war a PRC action so that the US isn't seen as escalating it.

    To me though, this only underscores the absolute necessity of some sort of 'trip-wire' force in Taiwan to ensure that no number of weak-knees and spinelessness cause the US to back out of supporting Taiwan. Doing so would force any future union between the PRC and ROC to be done mutually and diplomatically, perhaps in a future in which the PRC has somehow liberalized or the ROC populace has bought into authoritarian-mercantilist-communism. Either way, a peaceful unification or divergence down their own paths should be the goal.
    The 1990 Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe helped set Russia on the path to downsizing its military severalfold (even if Russia would trend in that direction anyway with ). The last great Cold War arms control treaty IIRC. That the Russian military at its peak can only be a feeble shadow of the Soviet one at any point in the Cold War is one of those latent decisive factors in the present war. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has reportedly signalled its intent to reach 1000 nuclear warheads by the end of the decade (on top of its unprecedented peacetime militarization).

    I don't think the US government has moved quite fast enough in its volume and caliber of assistance to Ukraine, but assuming a Russian TKO by the end of the year, we have a truly historic opportunity to pursue mutually-deescalatory arms control agreements between all three nuclear great powers. Everyone has been engaging in nuclear rearmament over the past 5-10 years, and a Russian defeat would probably be the very last opportunity to reverse course within the existing global order. That's in everyone's interest, as is less-overheated conventional production.

    Obviously, abruptly pushing troops into Taiwan kills any chance at diplomacy and puts us in a bad light internationally (one of the most important geopolitical aspects of the Ukraine war is that Russia is so self-evidently the aggressor and instigator of conflict). I don't have anything against our administration privately intimating that such an option is on the table depending on the course of negotiations however. Parallel to the effects of arms control treaties, it's also noteworthy that moderate Western sanctions played a significant role in limiting Russia's capacity to rearm even when Putin made it a priority. A lot in the realm of economic integration has come on the table with China, which is another bargaining chip for the US either way.

    Next consider that one of the causes of the Ukraine war was the dramatic lack of understanding of either side on the other. Most of the West interpreted Putin as a pragmatic bluffer; Putin saw the West as on the verge of decay and collapse (well, more so than it really is). Putin probably was bluffing to an extent during the winter - very very few world leaders beyond the age of warlords prefer the waging of war to successful coercion - but as his unhinged maximalist, yet indirect, demands left no room but for NATO to easily rebuke them, he painted himself into a corner where delusions of a low-risk gamble were his only alternative to capitulation. Imagine if world leaders were so up front as to drop the rhetoric of "grave disappointment" and "severe consequences" and just say what they meant - if Putin told us up front that Ukraine could not in his worldview be allowed to drift away from the Russian sphere as a matter of national identity, or if NATO offered a unified ultimatum against Putin describing all the military and economic support it would deliver Ukraine in the event of war. Actually forcing everyone to be realistic instead of pretending that what they were seeing was what they wanted to see.

    The foreign policies of both the USSR and USA during the Cold War were a notorious cavalcade of stupid, blindly-stumbling bullshit by hawks who had no idea what they were doing and didn't understand the first thing about their adversaries. But even in the 21st century, lack of communication and understanding continues to beset great power politics. It's quite likely that Russian, Chinese, and American foreign policy elites persist in holding stereotypical, poorly-supported worldviews regarding each other. If we have an opportunity for radical transparency and engagement, at least behind closed doors, it's far preferable to once again filling in the blanks toward mutually-assured (conventional) destruction.

    It's time to retire the idea that geopolitical facts are merely, reciprocally, obvious to all actors as a matter of higher knowledge or impulse. We keep finding out that organizations and countries are led by humans, not by esoteric poli-sci algorithms.

    (A vigorous good-faith effort on our part is also useful in sussing out Xi's intent regardless of outcome; the State Department could probably gain a lot of information out of the process.)

    The US Aegis system is designed exactly against such a threat, it's not perfect and missiles will always get through though, which is why battle damage control drills are so damn important. Consider how many US ships have actually sunk from enemy actions and accidents over the last few decades. Almost all have been recovered and put back into service. Crew drills, training, low-level initiative are absolutely important in the chaos of a successful enemy attack. Fleet drills in supporting other ships in duress and good salvage teams/fleet tug boats are all part of what make the USN so successful too and it can't be done on the cheap when projecting power away from your home ports.
    Do the publicized series of USN snafus over past few years point to a slippage of discipline and standards though? There was that government brief last year condemning failures of leadership and training in the USN.


    Side note: Unlike Russia, China is absolute bottom-tier in the field of anti-American propaganda.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 




    By analogy, imagine using this music video as anti-Russian propaganda.

    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-19-2022 at 02:45.
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  13. #433
    The Philosopher Duke Member Suraknar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    While I do not want to derail the current military & warfare turn of this discussion, I am replying here based on the Original Thread.

    I think overall, Humanity seems to have learned nothing from its past and the lessons of History. Greed and Lust for Power still reign supreme in the motivations of so called Leaders of Nations & the World along with their associates whom they cater to and often are the ones pulling the strings and lobbying policy at the expense of the people and the planet.

    Especially those that sit on the Geopolitical Table playing its Game, move after move.

    And on top of it the entire world has managed to ignore the issues of the environment and climate and has continued its business as usual day by day further destruction of the earth upon which the geopolitics happen.

    Some speak of the Thucydides Trap, and how rivalry between a declining power and a rising power has led to terrible wars in the past starting with Sparta in Decline falling for the trapping and waging war on rising Athens of ancient Greece.

    Today it is the declining USA and the rising China which constitute the powers with the potential to fall in that trap. Will they fall for it and wage war on each other? It remains to be seen and we can only hope that this rivalry ends peacefully as it has happened in some few occasions where the rivals did not fall for the trap.

    Yet, again, no matter one's optimism and wishful thinking, in the end the facts are what counts. So in a more factual thinking mode, I am afraid that it may not end well for humanity the way things are going now and if there is no change. If there is no space for pause and if no one gives in and compromises a bit for their own good first and the good for all as a side effect.

    Russia's War on Ukraine is a testament to this. Russia has been provoked by broken promises (NATO) and failed accords (MINSK, MINSK2) by its rivals and a foreign policy by the world which mishandled a Civil War waging in Ukraine for 8 years.

    Where was the UN and its peace keeping forces? Where were the Blue Helms. There should have been immediate Diplomatic Effort along WITH Russia to mitigate the conflict in Ukraine and ensure peace instead of 14,000 casualties during 8 years. With peace and proper oversight then the right to self determination for the Russophone Ukrainians of the East could have been respected and handled properly even advance to Referendums of the population while the whole world was looking. Of course Ukraine and the people of teh west will have to make a concession and let some territory go allong their brethren of the east wishing to be independent.

    Is that too much of a price to pay for Democracy, Sovereignty and Self-Determination in today's world order?

    We all are called upon to defend Ukraine's rights of Self-Determination yet itself Ukraine has not led by example. Instead shady dealing and dirty policy of opportunism happened not to mention some questionable movements with Nazi allures (Azov Battalions, and Training Camps etc) which triggered much concern all over too.

    In addition, Trump/Biden debacle taking place on Ukrainian affairs, and Ukraine being categorized as the most Corrupt Country in Europe. I think Ukraine is not innocent completely and did mishandle this situation with the civil war and bombings of schools in the east etc (Ref: Human Rights Watch). nevertheless it did not deserve War upon it. The world should have handled this differently.

    On the other hand, Russia made a huge mistake as well, a folly really, that I condemn equally, to fall for it and decide to pull the trigger instead. Cause death and suffering and destruction for so many innocent people while using the above as justifications for it. And because the saddest part of these Wars is that the innocent. once more are the collateral to the machinations of the players of the Geopolitical game.

    I knew that Russia was a bit backwards in many ways, I estimated some 40-50 years backwardness in terms of Socio-Economical progress compared to the west and many Asian countries. Yet was making progress nevertheless. Historically if you think about it, the Russian people never really lived under a Democracy, direct, participatory or representative. It was from the authority of kings to Tsars to Soviet Regime...so to a point there is the understanding that there were still some milestones to its roadmap.

    But to see it respond with same Tsarist concerns and motivations of some 200 years ago was somehow surprising to say the least.

    Factually thinking about all this one can but wonder if the provocation was planned or if it resulted from reckless mishandling of issues by the recent leaders of involved nations.

    As surprising as Russia's response was it is equally surprising to think that foreign policy makers acted in such incompetent and near sighted ways for these issues.

    Which cause me to evaluate another view, the one of a planned policy for years, to provoke again and again ever for tightly having foreseen and calculated the other side's reaction.

    Which then begs the question of why, and also, how does the US. NATO and EU benefit from the current Polarization in the world. Why do we want this polarization and how do we benefit from China (and others) being put in a position where they have to refuse to condemn Russia's actions?

    Is this an attempt to put everyone in the same basket and say "hey look, Russia is the big bad wolf and anyone else's that supports it" so that China becomes a target too in the eyes of the world?

    What is the goal here? Is this an indication of the US & Co failing for Thucydides Trap leading us towards an eventual armed conflict where the whole world is mainly split in between the two and will end in Armageddon?

    Or a new Economical reality? Do we realize that Russia, China India, South Africa and Brazil alone constitute half of the word's population? What is the goal here to split the global economy in two separate financial, banking and trading systems?

    Can all this end well? I really do wonder... and look foreword to hear from any interested patron here own thoughts on all this. (unless these aspects were already discussed in the thread then kindly point me to those posts).

    I really think that we need to put a collective and to Geopolitics period lest we risk to lose our Human Civilization. I really think that we have to shift our minds and put people value above some arbitrary border delimitation on a map and above the value of the land these people live upon.

    We need to put lives above materialism, we need to end Greed and Lust for Power and start thinking before whom we vote in to power seriously and for what Agenda. We may even need to change our Democracies to be more participatory structure and decision making, the technology is there to do so, lets use it, for the benefit of the many and stop being used by it for the profit and benefit of the few. And for an earth whose inhabitants live in peace and prosperity equally with one another and in all our diversity as one Humanity.
    Last edited by Suraknar; 04-19-2022 at 06:31.
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  14. #434
    Darkside Medic Senior Member rory_20_uk's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    There's a lot to unpack here.

    NATO never made any promise to Russia. President Bush might have said something but it isn't up to the USA. It is not up to other countries to make Russia feel good about itself. When the USSR it had to give up its occupation by force of many countries - and far from feeling any guilt for 50 years of oppression Russia thinks it is owed something??!?

    Why isn't the UN involved... The same reason the UN doesn't get involved in any conflict that one of the Security Council doesn't want them to - and with China, Russia, UK, USA and France that rules out most of the world.

    I am unclear how exactly Europe has provoked Russia - unless we pretend that Russia somehow owns Eastern Europe. Europe has been investing in Russia, buying a lot of (and IMO far too much) of its energy from Russia, receiving investments from Russia, all whilst leaving Europe's Eastern flank practically unarmed. In the meantime, Russia undertook several assassinations in Europe where the response was pretty limited.

    Ending a post that we should in essence just ignore reality would have been better to start the post so I could have not bothered reading it.

    An enemy that wishes to die for their country is the best sort to face - you both have the same aim in mind.
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  15. #435
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Which then begs the question of why, and also, how does the US. NATO and EU benefit from the current Polarization in the world. Why do we want this polarization and how do we benefit from China (and others) being put in a position where they have to refuse to condemn Russia's actions?
    NATO benefits from a renewed sense of purpose but this is due to Russia's starting a conventional war to conquer neighboring territories, something that NATO is designed to stop for its members.
    For the US and EU, there's not really much benefit, economically everyone is still recovering from the COVID problems. The US and EU would love to have no conflicts and just truck along making money so the increased tensions really are harmful, especially as the various global corporations try and resolve even more disrupted supply chain issues.
    I think the only real benefit to this polarization is in granting more credibility to those like myself that keep stamping the floor and saying that authoritarian regimes like Russia and the PRC are threats to our way of life and we need to limit our exposure to them lest we be forced into an untenable situation in the future.

    Is this an attempt to put everyone in the same basket and say "hey look, Russia is the big bad wolf and anyone else's that supports it" so that China becomes a target too in the eyes of the world?
    Russia is being targeted because of what it did, China, India and a lot of other countries are trying to hedge their bets on both sides. CHina however does have a vested interest in the success of Russia as it is its only significant ally in the world. China made itself a target though when it started to try and force its claims on its neighbors like India as well as throughout the South China Sea with its aggressive 'grey zone tactics' using maritime militias and building islands on atolls to reinforce its claims.

    What is the goal here? Is this an indication of the US & Co failing for Thucydides Trap leading us towards an eventual armed conflict where the whole world is mainly split in between the two and will end in Armageddon?
    The US and its allies generally bend over backwards to avoid war with its larger rivals. Honestly, the big danger is China assuming a lack of resolve on the part of the US in supporting its allies. The view of the US and the West in general as 'paper tigers' was the same mistake the Imperial Japanese made.

    Or a new Economical reality? Do we realize that Russia, China India, South Africa and Brazil alone constitute half of the word's population? What is the goal here to split the global economy in two separate financial, banking and trading systems?
    Of course those countries are hugely populated and important, if they don't want to work in a 'rules based' world system and instead go back to the times of 'might makes right' then that's on them. The goal of the US and West in general has almost always (post cold-war) been one of more or less 'open for business' through increased trade and business. The divestment of the West's industrial base to east and south Asia is proof of that.
    It's less a split of the economy into two spheres (which we already had in the cold war anyhow) but into a determination of how countries should interact in the future. Economic measures and sanctions are surely preferable to military measures and blockades, right?

    I really think that we need to put a collective and to Geopolitics period lest we risk to lose our Human Civilization. I really think that we have to shift our minds and put people value above some arbitrary border delimitation on a map and above the value of the land these people live upon.

    We need to put lives above materialism, we need to end Greed and Lust for Power and start thinking before whom we vote in to power seriously and for what Agenda. We may even need to change our Democracies to be more participatory structure and decision making, the technology is there to do so, lets use it, for the benefit of the many and stop being used by it for the profit and benefit of the few. And for an earth whose inhabitants live in peace and prosperity equally with one another and in all our diversity as one Humanity.
    These are nice ideas but how do they get implemented? This is like saying that the way to end violence is everyone just disarms and stops fighting, how does one make the entire species to that?
    Transcending borders and economics is something to aspire for but not realistic in the current environment. Even the friendliest of cooperative groups like the EU struggle to work together, doing so with other regional groups is even harder, that's why the UN is sort of just window dressing as it essentially powerless unless the security council advocates action all together.

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    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

  16. #436

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    While I do not want to derail the current military & warfare turn of this discussion, I am replying here based on the Original Thread.

    I think overall, Humanity seems to have learned nothing from its past and the lessons of History. Greed and Lust for Power still reign supreme in the motivations of so called Leaders of Nations & the World along with their associates whom they cater to and often are the ones pulling the strings and lobbying policy at the expense of the people and the planet.
    There's something even more important to human affairs than greed these days: ethnonationalism, tribalism, and social reaction. Another general tendency to record: Dictators get sloppier, stupider, more paranoid, and more self-absorbed the longer they stay in power. More often than not.

    Some speak of the Thucydides Trap, and how rivalry between a declining power and a rising power has led to terrible wars in the past starting with Sparta in Decline falling for the trapping and waging war on rising Athens of ancient Greece.
    It has been suggested that the Thucydides Trap is a misconstrued concept without explanatory power, and that its usual application really reflects a peaking (formerly-rising) power seizing its last opportunity to compete. Through this lens Sparta attacked Athens because it was losing hope of overtaking the Athenian Empire.

    Russia's War on Ukraine is a testament to this. Russia has been provoked by broken promises (NATO) and failed accords (MINSK, MINSK2) by its rivals and a foreign policy by the world which mishandled a Civil War waging in Ukraine for 8 years.

    Where was the UN and its peace keeping forces? Where were the Blue Helms. There should have been immediate Diplomatic Effort along WITH Russia to mitigate the conflict in Ukraine and ensure peace instead of 14,000 casualties during 8 years. With peace and proper oversight then the right to self determination for the Russophone Ukrainians of the East could have been respected and handled properly even advance to Referendums of the population while the whole world was looking. Of course Ukraine and the people of teh west will have to make a concession and let some territory go allong their brethren of the east wishing to be independent.
    I would challenge this concept of the conflict in its totality - it's the Russian government's version of the story, twisted in fact and actualized by its own broken promises - but will leave it at the following for now: Blue Helmets are peacekeepers, not peacemakers. They can't force anyone, let alone a nuclear state, to act a certain way.

    Which then begs the question of why, and also, how does the US. NATO and EU benefit from the current Polarization in the world. Why do we want this polarization and how do we benefit from China (and others) being put in a position where they have to refuse to condemn Russia's actions?
    They don't. Thinking of geopolitics in terms of grand conspiracies is the most dangerous mistake one can make. The desperation of Western desires to avoid conflict with Russia and China is amply demonstrated by the West's persistent and ongoing economic entanglements with them, and the consistent emphasis on avoiding securitized foreign policy or "provocations." German/French/Italian/Austrian Ostpolitik, British plutophilia, etc. Trump's administration was just the exception that proved the rule.

    I really think that we need to put a collective and to Geopolitics period lest we risk to lose our Human Civilization. I really think that we have to shift our minds and put people value above some arbitrary border delimitation on a map and above the value of the land these people live upon.

    We need to put lives above materialism, we need to end Greed and Lust for Power and start thinking before whom we vote in to power seriously and for what Agenda. We may even need to change our Democracies to be more participatory structure and decision making, the technology is there to do so, lets use it, for the benefit of the many and stop being used by it for the profit and benefit of the few. And for an earth whose inhabitants live in peace and prosperity equally with one another and in all our diversity as one Humanity.
    Slavoj Zizek commented last month,

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    There is no longer ethnic cleansing without poetry, because we live in an era that is supposedly post-ideological. Since great secular causes no longer have the force to mobilize people for mass violence, a larger sacred motive is needed. Religion or ethnic belonging serve this role perfectly (pathological atheists who commit mass murder for pleasure are rare exceptions). Realpolitik is no better guide. It has become a mere alibi for ideology, which often evokes some hidden dimension behind the veil of appearances in order to obscure the crime that is being committed openly. This double mystification is often announced by describing a situation as “complex.” An obvious fact – say, an instance of brutal military aggression – is relativized by evoking a “much more complex background.” The act of aggression is really an act of defense. This is exactly what is happening today. Russia obviously attacked Ukraine, and is obviously targeting civilians and displacing millions. And yet commentators and pundits are eagerly searching for “complexity” behind it. There is complexity, of course. But that does not change the basic fact that Russia did it. Our mistake was that we did not interpret Putin’s threats literally enough; we thought he was just playing a game of strategic manipulation and brinkmanship. One is reminded of the famous joke that Sigmund Freud quotes: “Two Jews met in a railway carriage at a station in Galicia. ‘Where are you going?’ asked one. ‘To Cracow,’ was the answer. ‘What a liar you are!’ broke out the other. ‘If you say you’re going to Cracow, you want me to believe you’re going to Lemberg. But I know that in fact you’re going to Cracow. So why are you lying to me?’” When Putin announced a military intervention, we didn’t take him literally when he said he wanted to pacify and “denazify” Ukraine. Instead, the reproach from disappointed “deep” strategists amounts to: “Why did you tell me you are going to occupy Lviv when you really want to occupy Lviv?” This double mystification exposes the end of realpolitik. As a rule, realpolitik is opposed to the naivety of binding diplomacy and foreign policy to (one’s version of) moral or political principles. Yet in the current situation, it is realpolitik that is naive. It is naive to suppose that the other side, the enemy, is also aiming at a limited pragmatic deal.
    In other words, Putin is trying to impose a new model of international relations. Rather than cold war, there should be hot peace: a state of permanent hybrid war in which military interventions are declared under the guise of peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.
    Ultra-nationalism thus signals the death agony of national authority... Russia refuses to use the word “war” for its “special military operation” not just to downplay the brutality of its intervention but above all to make clear that war in the old sense of an armed conflict between nation-states does not apply... Within the four spheres of influence, there are only peacekeeping interventions. War proper happens only when the four big bosses cannot agree on the borders of their spheres
    On March 17, the Russian ambassador to Bosnia, Igor Kalabukhov, explained that, “If [Bosnia] decides to be a member of any alliance [such as NATO], that is an internal matter. Our response is a different matter. Ukraine’s example shows what we expect. Should there be any threat, we will respond.” Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has gone so far as to suggest that the only comprehensive solution would be to demilitarize all of Europe, with Russia with its army maintaining peace through occasional humanitarian interventions. Similar ideas abound in the Russian press. As the political commentator Dmitry Evstafiev explains in a recent interview with a Croatian publication: “A new Russia is born which lets you know clearly that it doesn’t perceive you, Europe, as a partner. Russia has three partners: USA, China, and India. You are for us a trophy which shall be divided between us and Americans. You didn’t yet get this, although we are coming close to this.”
    Civilizing our civilizations will require radical social change – a revolution, in fact. But we cannot afford to hope that a new war will trigger it. The far more likely outcome is the end of civilization as we know it, with the survivors if there are any organized in small authoritarian groups. We should harbor no illusions: in some basic sense, World War III has already begun, though for now it is still being fought mostly through proxies. Abstract calls for peace are not enough. “Peace” is not a term that allows us to draw the key political distinction that we need. Occupiers always sincerely want peace in the territory they hold. Nazi Germany wanted peace in occupied France, Israel wants peace in the occupied West Bank, and Russian President Vladimir Putin wants peace in Ukraine. That is why, as the philosopher ?tienne Balibar once put it, “pacifism is not an option.” The only way to prevent another Great War is by avoiding the kind of “peace” that requires constant local wars for its maintenance."


    There is almost no popular national consciousness of universal solidarity in the vein you describe, let alone international popular consciousness. Zizek doesn't have much to offer about it - "Something like a new non-aligned movement is needed, not in the sense that countries should be neutral in the ongoing war, but in the sense that we should question the entire notion of the “clash of civilizations.” - but I believe any plausible direction for a transnational popular front would have to be rooted in some sort of ideological non-alignment, which is to say a different sort of "clash of civilizations" than has previously been conceptualized. It would reflect an active clash between the global 'progressive civilization' and the individual national reactionary/imperialist civilizations.



    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    Why isn't the UN involved... The same reason the UN doesn't get involved in any conflict that one of the Security Council doesn't want them to - and with China, Russia, UK, USA and France that rules out most of the world.
    Scholars have pointed out that the Security Council is a highly-successful institution, as it was only ever intended with one (two depending on how you cut it) purpose in mind. That purpose was to integrate the United States into an international system, and to establish that international system such that the represented powers - the UK, France, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States - never went to war with one another.


    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    Russia is being targeted because of what it did, China, India and a lot of other countries are trying to hedge their bets on both sides. CHina however does have a vested interest in the success of Russia as it is its only significant ally in the world. China made itself a target though when it started to try and force its claims on its neighbors like India as well as throughout the South China Sea with its aggressive 'grey zone tactics' using maritime militias and building islands on atolls to reinforce its claims.
    I don't know if the ethno-fascist wing in American politics would ever not have scapegoated China as the next great external enemy, but let's be real, the political Establishment in the United States (Nixon-Reagan-Bush-Clinton consensus) never would have given a damn about Chinese political repression or ethnic cleansing had the CCP not undertaken disruptive militarization in the SCS. Most of the political/blob/business class would in principle have been quite happy to help China mortgage Global South commodities and grow its nominal economy to twice the American's size.

    I think the only real benefit to this polarization is in granting more credibility to those like myself that keep stamping the floor and saying that authoritarian regimes like Russia and the PRC are threats to our way of life and we need to limit our exposure to them lest we be forced into an untenable situation in the future.
    If that's the goal then the US needs to learn to wield its IMF veto toward those generous developmental economics that we discussed earlier. Over the past few years, the IMF has repeatedly returned to its underhanded roots and imposed austerity requirements on struggling countries while charging them exorbitant fees (including half a billion $ from Ukraine just during the pandemic).

    The goal of the US and West in general has almost always (post cold-war) been one of more or less 'open for business' through increased trade and business. The divestment of the West's industrial base to east and south Asia is proof of that.
    It's very much been a kind of anarcho-capitalist wag-the-dog deal for us, and I've emphasized many times how exporting corruption that only undermines our superficially rules-based order was one of our greatest failures (specifically America's). As the discussion shows, including my quotations earlier in this post, both China and Russia want to take advantage of an international rules-based order, but only with a set of rules favorable to their authoritarian mode. For the West, corporatocracy is suicide, as it promises the worst of both worlds. It's also not tangential that a bit of EU and NATO "war communism," or less provocatively-said direct industrial management of world-war vintage, would probably allow Germany and the like to surmount their dependence on Russia in the short term and apply maximal pressure through total economic embargo. Was it 40 billion euros spent on Russian oil and gas since the war broke out so far? "And in the West, we allow the market to dictate the strength of our commitment to human rights in Ukraine and elsewhere."
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-20-2022 at 06:55.
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  17. #437
    The Philosopher Duke Member Suraknar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    First of all, I would like to specify for all, that my reply here is made from a context for several years spanning from the dissolution of the USSR to today including the events in Ukraine in the past 20 years, and specifically since Maidan and 2014 outbreak of the Civil War in the Donbas area.

    Russia did not just decide to start this war from one day to another. Putin has been giving everyone indication of Russia's continued frustration since the early 2000's. Over and over. We simply ignored it it seems.

    And every time a new Country closer to Russia joined Nato for Russia it was felt like a provocation which we also ignored. By "we" I mean the West, including NA, and EU and NATO.

    Also in a general mode, I am discussing with the goal to progress my understanding, and hopefully everyone who is participating, in relation to the topics we engage in. It is not a who is right and who is wrong kind of discussion or at least that is not how I am discussing, thought to specify. I understand all here may have own views on the topic and I respect that, I just am exchanging views and ideas and possible solutions not only for teh specific crisis but also in the long terms for humanity at large.

    I think that just discussing the current crisis without trying to identify possible ways to avoid similar crisis in the future does nothing in helping us to create a better future as a Race of intelligent beings populating and shaping this planet that we all share.

    Having said this...

    Quote Originally Posted by rory_20_uk View Post
    There's a lot to unpack here.

    NATO never made any promise to Russia. President Bush might have said something but it isn't up to the USA.
    Politifact

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Shifrinson, an associate professor of international relations at Boston University, wrote that while no formal agreement restricted NATO’s expansion, Baker and other diplomats had offered the Soviets verbal assurances that NATO would not enlarge to the east.


    Can we safely assume that from the Russian Perspective the US is the leader of NATO? or at least its most influential member, to put it more diplomatically.

    The point is that there is factual evidence to such promises having been made, and while not technically official, in the form of written agreement etc we cannot deny that assurances were given to Russia during official negotiations.

    Also, my point here is not to say that NATO or the US actually broke some agreement, you cannot break an agreement which does not exist right, rather my point is to show that there is basis for Russia to have a grievance which contributes to the list of elements constituting as a provocation.

    I am unclear how exactly Europe has provoked Russia - unless we pretend that Russia somehow owns Eastern Europe.
    While I never specifically said that Europe itself (the EU) provoked Russia I think Europe did take part in facilitating the Minsk and Misnk 2 accords, but did nothing thereafter as the Civil War raged in Ukraine.

    Ending a post that we should in essence just ignore reality would have been better to start the post so I could have not bothered reading it.
    If that is your interpretation then you misunderstood my words. Reality is what is, the sad present state of it that we are still in. I spoke of what we could do for a better future reality. This is part of what I personally think we should do, so I closed my post with my personal thoughts that are not about ignoring reality but rather how can we move forward from here to avoid, in the future similar realities.

    The fact is that we have several thousand years of History and the Human Race still fights with itself for the same old reasons without having evolved past its basic Greed and Lust for Power that motivates these geopolitics leading to these conflicts.

    It is good to talk about all these but I think part of the thinking that goes in to a debate and a discussion should also be dedicated to identify ways and solution of how to avoid the same situations from happening again moving forward. And of course IF like myself, you as well, discuss for the purpose of progressing one's thinking towards the topics of discussion.


    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    NATO benefits from a renewed sense of purpose but this is due to Russia's starting a conventional war to conquer neighboring territories, something that NATO is designed to stop for its members.
    For the US and EU, there's not really much benefit, economically everyone is still recovering from the COVID problems. The US and EU would love to have no conflicts and just truck along making money so the increased tensions really are harmful, especially as the various global corporations try and resolve even more disrupted supply chain issues.
    I think the only real benefit to this polarization is in granting more credibility to those like myself that keep stamping the floor and saying that authoritarian regimes like Russia and the PRC are threats to our way of life and we need to limit our exposure to them lest we be forced into an untenable situation in the future.
    Heh. And so I tend to agree with you that there is no Benefit to polarize the world in two once again, but to just agree on this, I think is insufficient. See I ask not only for a response but for a reflection. If there is no benefit then maybe we should not just react to what is happening, and start thinking of how to be pro-active too. Proactive towards resolving this crisis but also towards finding ways to avoid such crisis from plaguing the world in the future.

    Of course those countries are hugely populated and important, if they don't want to work in a 'rules based' world system and instead go back to the times of 'might makes right' then that's on them. The goal of the US and West in general has almost always (post cold-war) been one of more or less 'open for business' through increased trade and business. The divestment of the West's industrial base to east and south Asia is proof of that.
    It's less a split of the economy into two spheres (which we already had in the cold war anyhow) but into a determination of how countries should interact in the future. Economic measures and sanctions are surely preferable to military measures and blockades, right?
    Yes this part of the crux of the issue I think though. When you say "rules based" whose rules are we referring to? Who puts these rules in place? What happens when some do not agree with these rules and want some changes?

    Maybe the divestment is actually a reaction to a failed imposition of one's rules? The US is not open for business, the US is often open for business according to its rules and benefit. There is a difference.

    Yes of course sanctions are better than military measures especially since the danger for a nuclear war is a possibility and this is something we should all, all sides, strive to avoid.

    There will be no winners in a nuclear War, only losers. MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is the only reality and deterrent to it.

    Nevertheless, some of my question here is in context with the events of several years, not just the events of the past month of so. Because the reality is that Policy is also made for the long term, it is not a day by day precess.


    These are nice ideas but how do they get implemented? This is like saying that the way to end violence is everyone just disarms and stops fighting, how does one make the entire species to that?
    Transcending borders and economics is something to aspire for but not realistic in the current environment. Even the friendliest of cooperative groups like the EU struggle to work together, doing so with other regional groups is even harder, that's why the UN is sort of just window dressing as it essentially powerless unless the security council advocates action all together.
    Well thank you. And I am not saying it is easy, the full answer could be a Book :)

    Suffice it to say it all starts with ourselves, if you think it is a good idea, then make it your own and talk about it with those you care about. That is all it takes to start.

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    There's something even more important to human affairs than greed these days: ethnonationalism, tribalism, and social reaction. Another general tendency to record: Dictators get sloppier, stupider, more paranoid, and more self-absorbed the longer they stay in power. More often than not.
    Greed and Lust for Power are common denominator causes of all the suffering in all of history in the world, including the issues you mentioned, they all can be simplified and reduced to a combination of Greed and Lust for Power. This is why, while I agree that each one is important in their own respect for the sake of simplicity I speak only about the two foundational ones. There is of course Ignorance too but that is slightly different problem.

    If we manage to address Greed and Lust for Power, I think we would eliminate the majority of causes for suffering on this planet.


    It has been suggested that the Thucydides Trap is a misconstrued concept without explanatory power, and that its usual application really reflects a peaking (formerly-rising) power seizing its last opportunity to compete. Through this lens Sparta attacked Athens because it was losing hope of overtaking the Athenian Empire.
    Maybe this has been suggested, yet I think it is a false position. The fact remains that the Thucydides Trap is not just a concept, but actual events leading to it and faced by the competing power which they have to deal with the situation they face one way or another, or at least compelled to deal with it. In the last 500 years the situation of the Trap has risen in 16 occasions, 12 of these ended up in War. and only 4 averted it.

    In more specific terms, Thucydides Trap explains how rising and declining powers are destined for conflict, yet this is not done for the sake of prediction but rather for the sake of prevention. The goal here is not to explain why America and Chine could and will come in to conflict but rather to help us find ways to avert and void such conflict.

    I would challenge this concept of the conflict in its totality - it's the Russian government's version of the story, twisted in fact and actualized by its own broken promises -


    They don't. Thinking of geopolitics in terms of grand conspiracies is the most dangerous mistake one can make. The desperation of Western desires to avoid conflict with Russia and China is amply demonstrated by the West's persistent and ongoing economic entanglements with them, and the consistent emphasis on avoiding securitized foreign policy or "provocations." German/French/Italian/Austrian Ostpolitik, British plutophilia, etc. Trump's administration was just the exception that proved the rule.
    I would offer this short read in response to both your replies.

    the root causes of the war in ukraine

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Without going back to Ukraine, the ? historical and religious cradle ? of Russia, the root cause of this war traces back to 1997 when Zbigniew Brezinski, the most influential adviser to American presidents for thirty years, published his book “The Great Chessboard”, in which he explained that the strategic goal of the United States is to seize Ukraine and dismember Russia to break its power in Europe and prevent it from joining Germany. 1997 was also the year in which the first phase of this plan was set up with the entry into NATO of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary…


    PS: The referred book is The Grand Chessboard I think the title got lost in Translation (the original article is in French).

    Geopolitics would never work if they are not conducted in the fashion of "grand conspiracies", or rather long term plans with specific goals (in this case the continued Primacy of the US), the word conspiracy has a negative connotation. But here in lies the issue. Because long term plans for the well being of one or one group also means long term plans for the continued suppression of another.

    This is why we have what we have as a world and not a better one, albeit, admittedly, it could also be a much worse one too. Yet, my goal is continued progress for everyone, this is why I advocate that the root of the problem is the way we have been doing things and also make it a point to say that we have not been learning from our past mistakes and keep making new ones. It is no longer proper or enough that Geopolitics are conducted in such a way as to ensure the Primacy of a select few.

    but will leave it at the following for now: Blue Helmets are peacekeepers, not peacemakers. They can't force anyone, let alone a nuclear state, to act a certain way.
    I understand very well the role of the Blue Helms as a Canadian ;) Yet, I think you missed or misunderstood what I was referring to or maybe I was not specific enough.

    I was talking about bringing in the Blue Helms in 2014 when the Donbas declared its independence, in order to keep the peace between the Eastern and Wester Ukrainians, and avoid 14,000 deaths in the 8 years that followed.

    I think that the world had an opportunity there that was missed. And I think that we were very slow to act properly too. Was it because acting in such a way was against some geopolitical agenda and goal or simply because of negligence and lack of competence? This is still an area of inquiry.

    Yet if we had acted in such an effort, not only would we have saved live but also shown genuine intentions towards peace and stability plus may even have prevented the current War since Russia would have even less Justification or Causus Beli for it.

    There is almost no popular national consciousness of universal solidarity in the vein you describe, let alone international popular consciousness. Zizek doesn't have much to offer about it - "Something like a new non-aligned movement is needed, not in the sense that countries should be neutral in the ongoing war, but in the sense that we should question the entire notion of the “clash of civilizations.” - but I believe any plausible direction for a transnational popular front would have to be rooted in some sort of ideological non-alignment, which is to say a different sort of "clash of civilizations" than has previously been conceptualized. It would reflect an active clash between the global 'progressive civilization' and the individual national reactionary/imperialist civilizations.
    True there may not be any popular national consciousness of universal solidarity as I describe, if there were, we would not be having the crisis and suffering that we have now. yet that is kinda the point of expressing it. So, there is at least one person having that thinking, and I really do not think that I am the only one with this thinking. So we could safely say that there is at least some quantity of people which could form a group sharing this universal solidarity, which is just not popular yet.

    I think, the fact that this vain of thinking as I describe it is not popular, does not invalidate its value as a possible solution to the suffering and eventual self-destruction of the people of this world. Appeal to popularity constitutes a fallacy right?

    What matters firstly is if the suggested solution has that value towards solving the intended problem, and, if yes then we should acknowledge that it has the potential to become popular and therefore, thirdly, it only needs to be further shared and proliferated.

    ---

    Finally, does anyone care to say anything about the right to self determination? If we are expected to defend Ukraine's right to self Determination, do you think that Ukraine itself should be also expected to do defend that right for others? How about for its own people who wish to part ways? How about the Russophone population in Donbas?

    It feels to me that there is a double standard going on (in more than one ways if we start thinking Yemen, Cyprus, Syria and even Iraq), don't you?
    Last edited by Suraknar; 04-21-2022 at 01:03. Reason: typos corrections etc.
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  18. #438

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    First of all, I would like to specify for all, that my reply here is made from a context for several years spanning from the dissolution of the USSR to today including the events in Ukraine in the past 20 years, and specifically since Maidan and 2014 outbreak of the Civil War in the Donbas area.

    Russia did not just decide to start this war from one day to another. Putin has been giving everyone indication of Russia's continued frustration since the early 2000's. Over and over. We simply ignored it it seems.

    And every time a new Country closer to Russia joined Nato for Russia it was felt like a provocation which we also ignored. By "we" I mean the West, including NA, and EU and NATO.
    In the end we ignored it by not confronting Russia thoroughly enough. We rewarded Putin's provocations.

    Also, my point here is not to say that NATO or the US actually broke some agreement, you cannot break an agreement which does not exist right, rather my point is to show that there is basis for Russia to have a grievance which contributes to the list of elements constituting as a provocation.
    Anyone can claim anything as a grievance. The US has claimed many grievances against many countries. That a grievance exists doesn't make it credible, legitimate, or productive. But again, it is a huge mistake to think of this war as having arisen out of some grievance against the West. The casus belli for Russian nationalists is much more inward-looking. It's anxiety about the imagined integrity of their "Russian World," not any hostile actions of the European World or the American World.

    While I never specifically said that Europe itself (the EU) provoked Russia I think Europe did take part in facilitating the Minsk and Misnk 2 accords, but did nothing thereafter as the Civil War raged in Ukraine.
    With all due respect, there was no civil war. We can't prevent conflicts in the future if we don't understand their causes and their nature.

    Yet if we had acted in such an effort, not only would we have saved live but also shown genuine intentions towards peace and stability plus may even have prevented the current War since Russia would have even less Justification or Causus Beli for it.
    Why would Putin have allowed Blue Helmets into Donbas? He claimed to be sending Russian soldiers as peacekeepers! Orwell warned us.

    As I said, peacekeepers don't make peace. Only the armed groups involved, and their leadership, can do that. The United Nations could not have acted without the consent and cooperation of Russia.

    If we manage to address Greed and Lust for Power, I think we would eliminate the majority of causes for suffering on this planet.
    The great dilemma of anarchism is, how can one eliminate or repress power without power?

    What matters firstly is if the suggested solution has that value towards solving the intended problem, and, if yes then we should acknowledge that it has the potential to become popular and therefore, thirdly, it only needs to be further shared and proliferated.
    But it's not a solution, it's a desirable end-state depicting what comes after the solution(s). It's like saying immortality is a solution to death - how is that condition brought about? Everyone wishes for peace and prosperity in the abstract (do you think Putin wants war for its own sake?) but if wishes were ponies, everyone would ride. Gandhi wanted peace, and though he didn't get it he did work for it. Hitler wanted peace too, peace under the Thousand-Year Reich, and we had to deliver peace to him at the barrel of a gun.

    So we have to be more sophisticated than just expressing approval of good concepts and cogitate in terms of right and wrong, and cause and effect. What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?

    Finally, does anyone care to say anything about the right to self determination? If we are expected to defend Ukraine's right to self Determination, do you think that Ukraine itself should be also expected to do defend that right for others? How about for its own people who wish to part ways? How about the Russophone population in Donbas?
    The reality is that the rhetoric of self-determination with respect to - by now pre-war - Russian-controlled Donbas is only Russian propaganda. The double standard is in only listening to a dictator's side of the story. Putin did not respect the locals' self-determination when he installed military government in Crimea and Donbas, expelled pro-Ukrainian people from their homes, imported Russian colonists, and forcefully kept the Ukrainian government from exercising its sovereignty. The Ukrainian government never violated any group's or region's right to self-determination in this way. The common people of the region, before the confrontation began, did not want to secede from Ukraine. It is only the case that Putin's government and Russian nationalists wanted to grab territory for Russia. Imagine if Napoleon annexed Switzerland in the name of the self-determination of French-speaking peoples; obviously that wouldn't have been the motivation. At least the Austrians and Sudetenland Germans whom Hitler annexed actually did want to join the Reich for the most part. But either way, you can't name anschluss "self-determination," or else we're going to start seeing a whole lot more "self-determination" around the world soon.

    Now, as a result of sorting and other social effects between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled regions over 8 years, there is actually a significant divergence between the attitudes of the populations - or there was before the war, it's harder to say now. Unsurprisingly, people living under Russian control became more pro-Russian than people living under Ukrainian control. But even so, an honest referendum in even Russian-annexed Donbas would probably choose to remain part of Ukraine. Just because a dictator doesn't like that fact is not a provocation toward him - it should rather be a provocation for every one of us who rejects a world ruled by greed and lust for power!!
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...e-there-think/
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...ublic-opinion/
    https://www.zois-berlin.de/en/public...m-2016-to-2019






    I would offer this short read in response to both your replies.

    the root causes of the war in ukraine

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

    Without going back to Ukraine, the ? historical and religious cradle ? of Russia, the root cause of this war traces back to 1997 when Zbigniew Brezinski, the most influential adviser to American presidents for thirty years, published his book ?The Great Chessboard?, in which he explained that the strategic goal of the United States is to seize Ukraine and dismember Russia to break its power in Europe and prevent it from joining Germany. 1997 was also the year in which the first phase of this plan was set up with the entry into NATO of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary?


    PS: The referred book is The Grand Chessboard I think the title got lost in Translation (the original article is in French).
    I've read this book. Two things, and both are important. First, there is zero evidence that American foreign policy in Ukraine is or has ever been some sort of calculated spiteful suppression of Russia's place under the sun. Second, that is not what Brzezinski wrote. THAT IS A LIE - MADE UP. Whoever that Swiss commentator is, they were trying to deceive their readers.

    What Brzezinski wrote about was Russian national recovery and its democratization and "Europeanization," and the peril of Russian nationalists rediscovering "messianism" over pragmatism.

    The end of the division of Europe should not precipitate a step back to a Europe of quarrelsome nation-states but should be the point of departure for shaping a larger and increasingly integrated Europe, reinforced by a widened NATO and rendered even more secure by a constructive security relationship with Russia. Hence, America's central geostrategic goal in Europe can be summed up quite simply: it is to consolidate through a more genuine transatlantic partnership the U.S. bridgehead on the Eurasian continent so that an enlarging Europe can become a more viable springboard for projecting into Eurasia the international democratic and cooperative order.
    Most troubling of all was the loss of Ukraine. The appearance of an independent Ukrainian state not only challenged all Russians to rethink the nature of their own political and ethnic identity, but it represented a vital geopolitical setback for the Russian state. The repudiation of more than three hundred years of Russian imperial history meant the loss of a potentially rich industrial and agricultural economy and of 52 million people ethnically and religiously sufficiently close to the Russians to make Russia into a truly large and confident imperial state. Ukraine's independence also deprived Russia of its dominant position on the Black Sea, where Odessa had served as Russia's vital gateway to trade with the Mediterranean and the world beyond. The loss of Ukraine was geopolitically pivotal, for it drastically limited Russia's geostrategic options. Even without the Baltic states and Poland, a Russia that retained control over Ukraine could still seek to be the leader of an assertive Eurasian empire, in which Moscow could dominate the non-Slavs in the South and Southeast of the former Soviet Union. But without Ukraine and its 52 million fellow Slavs, any attempt by Moscow to rebuild the Eurasian empire was likely to leave Russia entangled alone in protracted conflicts with the nationally and religiously aroused nonSlavs, the war with Chechnya perhaps simply being the first example. Moreover, given Russia's declining birthrate and the explosive birthrate among the Central Asians, any new Eurasian entity based purely on Russian power, without Ukraine, would inevitably become less European and more Asiatic with each passing year
    Russia's only real geostrategic option?the option that could give Russia a realistic international role and also maximize the opportunity of transforming and socially modernizing itself?is Europe. And not just any Europe, but the transatlantic Europe of the enlarging EU and NATO. Such a Europe is taking shape, as we have seen in chapter 3, and it is also likely to remain linked closely to America. That is the Europe to which Russia will have to relate, if it is to avoid dangerous geopolitical isolation. For America, Russia is much too weak to be a partner but still too strong to be simply its patient. It is more likely to become a problem, unless America fosters a setting that helps to convince the Russians that the best choice for their country is an increasingly organic connection with a transatlantic Europe
    [...]
    Only a Russia that is willing to accept the new realities of Europe, both economic and geopolitical, will be able to benefit internally from the enlarging scope of transcontinental European cooperation in commerce, communications, investment, and edu-cation... It also implies that if Russia pursues this path, it will have no choice other than eventually to emulate the course chosen by post-Ottoman Turkey, when it decided to shed its imperial ambitions and embarked very deliberately on the road of modernization, Europeanization, and democratization. No other option can offer Russia the benefits that a modern, rich, and democratic Europe linked to. America can. Europe and America are not a threat to a Russia that is a nonexpansive national and democratic state. They have no territorial designs on Russia, which China someday might have, nor do they share an insecure and potentially violent frontier, which is certainly the case with Russia's ethnically and territorially unclear border with the Muslim nations to the south. On the contrary, for Europe as well as for America, a national and democratic Russia is a geopolitically desirable entity, a source of stability in the volatile Eurasian complex... Most important in that respect is the need for clear and unambiguous acceptance by Russia of Ukraine's separate existence, of its borders, and of its distinctive national identity
    Russians will eventually have to come to recognize that Russia's national redefinition is not an act of capitulation but one of liberation. They will have to accept that what Yeltsin said in Kiev in 1990 about a nonimperial future for Russia was absolutely on
    the mark. And a genuinely nonimperial Russia will still be a great power, spanning Eurasia, the world's largest territorial unit by far. In any case, a redefinition of "What is Russia and where is Russia" will probably occur only by stages, and it will require a wise
    and firm Western posture. America and Europe will have to help. They should offer Russia not only a special treaty or charter with NATO, but they should also begin the process of exploring with Russia the shaping of an eventual transcontinental system of security and cooperation that goes considerably beyond the loose structure of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). And if Russia consolidates its internal democratic institutions and makes tangible progress in free-market-based
    economic development, its ever-closer association with NATO and the EU should not be ruled out. At the same time, it is equally important for the West, especially for America, to pursue policies that perpetuate the dilemma of the one alternative for Russia. The political and economic stabilization of the new post-Soviet states is a major factor in necessitating Russia's historical self-redefinition. Hence, support for the new post-Soviet states?for geopolitical pluralism in the space of the former Soviet empire?has to be an integral part of a policy designed to induce Russia to exercise unambiguously its European option. Among these states, three are geopolitically especially important: Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Ukraine.
    [...]
    Russia, despite its protestations, is likely to acquiesce in the expansion of NATO in 1999 to include several Central European countries, because the cultural and social gap between Russia and Central Europe has widened so much since the fall of communism.
    By contrast, Russia will find it incomparably harder to acquiesce in Ukraine's accession to NATO, for to do so would be to acknowledge that Ukraine's destiny is no longer organically linked to Russia's. Yet if Ukraine is to survive as an independent state, it will
    have to become part of Central Europe rather than Eurasia, and if it is to be part of Central Europe, then it will have to partake fully of Central Europe's links to NATO and the European Union. Russia's acceptance of these links would then define Russia's own decision to be also truly a part of Europe. Russia's refusal would be tantamount to the rejection of Europe in favor of a solitary "Eurasian" identity and existence. The key point to bear in mind is that Russia cannot be in Europe without Ukraine also being in Europe, whereas Ukraine can be in Europe without Russia being in Europe. Assuming that Russia decides to cast its lot with Europe, it follows that ultimately it is in Russia's own interest that Ukraine be included in the expanding European structures.

    [...]
    In that manner, in the course of the first two decades of the next century, Russia could increasingly become an integral part of a Europe that embraces not only Ukraine but reaches to the Urals and even beyond. An association or even some form of membership for Russia in the European and transatlantic structures would in turn open the doors to the inclusion of the three Caucasian countries?Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan?that so desperately aspire to a European connection. One cannot predict how fast that process can move, but one thing is certain: it will move faster if a geopolitical context is shaped that propels Russia in that direction, while foreclosing other temptations. And the faster Russia moves toward Europe, the sooner the black hole of Eurasia will be filled by a society that is increasingly modern and democratic. Indeed, for Russia the dilemma of the one alternative is no longer a matter of making a geopolitical choice but of facing up to the imperatives of survival.
    More within
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia.
    [...]
    The above quotations define well?even though with some animus?the dilemma that the United States faces. To what extent should Russia be helped economically?which inevitably strengthens Russia politically and militarily?and to what extent should
    the newly independent states be simultaneously assisted in the defense and consolidation of their independence? Can Russia be both powerful and a democracy at the same time? If it becomes powerful again, will it not seek to regain its lost imperial domain,
    and can it then be both an empire and a democracy? U.S. policy toward the vital geopolitical pivots of Ukraine and Azerbaijan cannot skirt that issue, and America thus faces a difficult dilemma regarding tactical balance and strategic purpose. Internal Russian recovery is essential to Russia's democratization and eventual Europeanization. But any recovery of its imperial potential would be inimical to both of these objectives. Moreover, it is over this issue that differences could develop between America and some European states, especially as the EU and NATO expand. Should Russia be considered a candidate for eventual membership in either structure? And what then about Ukraine? The costs of the exclusion of Russia could be high?creating a self-fulfilling prophecy in the Russian mindset?but the results of dilution of either the EU or NATO could also be quite destabilizing.
    Europe also serves as the springboard for the progressive expansion of democracy deeper into Eurasia. Europe's expansion eastward would consolidate the democratic victory of the 1990s
    [...]
    Such a larger Europe would be able to exercise a magnetic attraction on the states located even farther east, building a network of ties with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia, drawing them into increasingly binding cooperation while proselytizing common democratic principles. Eventually, such a Europe could become one of the vital pillars of an American-sponsored larger Eurasian structure of security and cooperation
    Not only did German-Polish trade literally explode (in 1995 Poland superseded Russia as Germany's largest trading partner in the East), but Germany became Poland's principal sponsor for membership in the EU and (together with the United States) in NATO. It is no exaggeration to say that by the middle of the decade, Polish-German reconciliation was assuming a geopolitical importance in Central Europe matching the earlier impact on Western Europe of the Franco-German reconciliation. Through Poland, German influence could radiate northward?into the Baltic states?and eastward?into Ukraine and Belarus.
    Neither France nor Germany is sufficiently strong to construct Europe on its own or to resolve with Russia the ambiguities inherent in the definition of Europe's geographic scope. That requires energetic, focused, and determined American involvement, particularly with the Germans, in defining Europe's scope and hence also in coping with such sensitive?especially to Russia?issues as the eventual status within the European system of the Baltic republics and Ukraine.
    In any case, it ought to be axiomatic that Europe's political unity and security are indivisible. As a practical matter, in fact it is difficult to conceive of a truly united Europe without a common security arrangement with America. It follows, therefore, that states that are in a position to begin and are invited to undertake accession talks with the EU should automatically also be viewed henceforth as subject in effect to NATO's presumptive protection.
    [...]
    Somewhere between 2005 and 2010, Ukraine, especially if in the meantime the country has made significant progress in its domestic reforms and has succeeded in becoming more evidently identified as a Central European country, should become ready for serious negotiations with both the EUand NATO.
    In the meantime, it is likely that Franco-German-Polish collaboration within the EU and NATO will have deepened considerably, especially in the area of defense. That collaboration could become the Western core of any wider European security arrangements that might eventually embrace both Russia and Ukraine. Given the special geopolitical interest of Germany and Poland in Ukraine's independence, it is also quite possible that Ukraine will gradually be drawn into the special Franco-German-Polish relationship. By the year 2010, Franco-German-Polish-Ukrainian political collaboration, engaging some 230 million people, could evolve into a partnership enhancing Europe's geostrategic depth (see map above). Whether the above scenario emerges in a benign fashion or in the context of intensifying tensions with Russia is of great importance. Russia should be continuously reassured that the doors to Europe are open, as are the doors to its eventual participation in an expanded transatlantic system of security and, perhaps at some future point, in a new trans-Eurasian system of security. To give credence to these assurances, various cooperative links between Russia and Europe?in all fields?should be very deliberately promoted. (Russia's relationship to Europe, and the role of Ukraine in that regard, are discussed more fully in the next chapter.) If Europe succeeds both in unifying and in expanding and if Russia in the meantime undertakes successful democratic consolidation and social modernization, at some point Russia can also become eligible for a more organic relationship with Europe
    The deliberately friendly posture adopted by the West, especially by the United States, toward the new Russian leadership was a source of encouragement to the post-Soviet "westernizers" in the Russian foreign policy establishment. It both reinforced its proAmerican inclinations and seduced its membership personally. The new leaders were flattered to be on a first-name basis with the top policy makers of the world's only superpower, and they found it easy to deceive themselves into thinking that they, too, were the leaders of a superpower. When the Americans launched the slogan of "the mature strategic partnership" between Washington and Moscow, to the Russians it seemed as if a new democratic American-Russian condominium?replacing the former contest?had thus been sanctified. That condominium would be global in scope. Russia thereby would not only be the legal successor to the former Soviet Union but the de facto partner in a global accommodation, based on genuine equality. As the new Russian leaders never tired of asserting, that meant not only that the rest of the world should recognize Russia as America's equal but that no global problem could be tackled or resolved without Russia's participation and/or permission. Although it was not openly stated, implicit in this illusion was also the notion that Central Europe would somehow remain, or might even choose to remain, a region of special political proximity to Russia. The dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and Comecon would not be followed by the gravitation of their former members either toward NATO or even only toward the EU.
    Western aid, in the meantime, would enable the Russian government to undertake domestic reforms, withdrawing the state from economic life and permitting the consolidation of democratic institutions. Russia's economic recovery, its special status as America's coequal partner, and its sheer attractiveness would then encourage the recently independent states of the new CIS?grateful that the new Russia was not threatening them and increasingly aware of the benefits of some form of union with Russia?to engage in ever-closer economic and then political integration with Russia, thereby also enhancing Russia's scope and power. The problem with this approach was that it was devoid of either international or domestic realism. While the concept of "mature strategic partnership" was flattering, it was also deceptive. America was neither inclined to share global power with Russia nor could it, even if it had wanted to do so. The new Russia was simply too weak, too devastated by three-quarters of a century of Communist rule, and too socially backward to be a real global partner. In Washington's view, Germany, Japan, and China were at least as important and influential. Moreover, on some of the central geostrategic issues of national interest to America?in Europe, the
    Middle East, and the Far East?it was far from the case that American and Russian aspirations were the same. Once differences inevitably started to surface, the disproportion in political power, financial clout, technological innovation, and cultural appeal made
    the "mature strategic partnership" seem hollow?and it struck an increasing number of Russians as deliberately designed to deceive Russia.
    Perhaps that disappointment might have been averted if earlier on?during the American-Russian honeymoon?America had embraced the concept of NATO expansion and had at the same time offered Russia "a deal it could not refuse," namely, a special cooperative relationship between Russia and NATO. Had America clearly and decisively embraced the idea of widening the alliance, with the stipulation that Russia should somehow be included inthe process, perhaps Moscow's subsequent sense of disappointment with "the mature partnership" as well as the progressive weakening of the political position of the westernizers in the Kremlin might have been averted. The moment to have done so was during the second half of 1993, right after Yeltsin's public endorsement in August of Poland's interest in joining the transatlantic alliance as being consistent with "the interests of Russia." Instead, the Clinton administration, then still pursuing its "Russia first" policy, agonized for two more years, while the Kremlin changed its tune and became increasingly hostile to the emerging but indecisive signals of the American intention to widen NATO. By the time Washington decided, in 1996, to make NATO enlargement a central goal in America's policy of shaping a larger and more secure Euro-Atlantic community, the Russians had locked themselves into rigid opposition. Hence, the year 1993 might be viewed as the year of a missed historic opportunity.
    Admittedly, not all of the Russian concerns regarding NATO expansion lacked legitimacy or were motivated by malevolent motives. Some opponents, to be sure, especially among the Russian military, partook of a Cold War mentality, viewing NATO expansion not as an integral part of Europe's own growth but rather as the advance toward Russia of an American-led and still hostile alliance. Some of the Russian foreign policy elite?most of whom were actually former Soviet officials?persisted in the long-standing geostrategic view that America had no place in Eurasia and that NATO expansion was largely driven by the American desire to increase its sphere of influence. Some of their opposition also derived from the hope that an unattached Central Europe would
    some day again revert to Moscow's sphere of geopolitical influence, once Russia had regained its health. But many Russian democrats also feared that the expansion of NATO would mean that Russia would be left outside of Europe, ostracized politically, and considered unworthy of membership in the institutional framework of European civilization. Cultural insecurity compounded the political fears, making NATO expansion seem like the culmination of the long-standing Western policy designed to isolate Russia, leaving it alone in the world and vulnerable to its various enemies. Moreover, the Russian democrats simply could not grasp the depth either of the Central Europeans' resentment over half a century of Moscow's domination or of their desire to be part of a larger Euro-Atlantic system.
    On balance, it is probable that neither the disappointment nor the weakening of the Russian westernizers could have been avoided. For one thing, the new Russian elite, quite divided within itself and with neither its president nor its foreign minister capable
    of providing consistent geostrategic leadership, was not able to define clearly what the new Russia wanted in Europe, nor could it realistically assess the actual limitations of Russia's weakened condition. Moscow's politically embattled democrats could not
    bring themselves to state boldly that a democratic Russia does not oppose the enlargement of the transatlantic democratic community and that it wishes to be associated with it. The delusion of a shared global status with America made it difficult for the Moscow
    political elite to abandon the idea of a privileged geopolitical position for Russia, not only in the area of the former Soviet Union itself but even in regard to the former Central European satellite states. These developments played into the hands of the nationalists, who by 1994 were beginning to recover their voices, and the militarists, who by then had become Yeltsin's critically important do-mestic supporters. Their increasingly shrill and occasionally threatening reactions to the aspirations of the Central Europeans merely intensified the determination of the former satellite states?mindful of their only recently achieved liberation from Russian rule?to gain the safe haven of NATO.
    The post-Soviet Russian elite had apparently also expected that the West would aid in, or at least not impede, the restoration of a central Russian role in the post-Soviet space. They thus resented the West's willingness to help the newly independent postSoviet states consolidate their separate political existence.
    [...]
    In this regard, Ukraine was critical. The growing American inclination, especially by 1994, to assign a high priority to AmericanUkrainian relations and to help Ukraine sustain its new national freedom was viewed by many in Moscow?even by its "westernizers"?as a policy directed at the vital Russian interest in eventually bringing Ukraine back into the common fold. That Ukraine will eventually somehow be "reintegrated" remains an article of faith among many members of the Russian political elite. As a result,
    Russia's geopolitical and historical questioning of Ukraine's separate status collided head-on with the American view that an imperial Russia could not be a democratic Russia. Additionally, there were purely domestic reasons that a "mature strategic partnership" between two "democracies" proved to be illusory. Russia was just too backward and too devastated by Communist rule to be a viable democratic partner of the United States. That central reality could not be obscured by high-sounding rhetoric about partnership. Post-Soviet Russia, moreover, had made only a partial break with the past. Almost all of its "democratic" leaders?even if genuinely disillusioned with the Soviet past?were not only the products of the Soviet system but former senior members of its ruling elite. They were not former dissidents, as in Poland or the Czech Republic. The key institutions of Soviet power?though weakened, demoralized, and corrupted?were still there. Symbolic of that reality and of the lingering hold of the Communist past was the historic centerpiece of Moscow: the continued presence of the Lenin mausoleum. It was as if post-Nazi Germany were governed by former middle-level Nazi "Gauleiters" spouting democratic slogans, with a Hitler mausoleum still standing in the center of Berlin
    In brief, neither the objective nor the subjective preconditions for an effective global partnership existed in the immediate years following the Soviet Union's collapse. The democratic "westernizers" simply wanted too much and could deliver too little. They desired an equal partnership?or, rather, a condominium?with America, a relatively free hand within the CIS, and a geopolitical no-man's-land in Central Europe. Yet their ambivalence about Soviet history, their lack of realism regarding global power, the depth of the economic crisis, and the absence of widespread social support meant that they could not deliver the stable and truly democratic Russia that the concept of equal partnership implied. Russia first had to go through a prolonged process of political reform, an equally long process of democratic stabilization, and an even longer process of socioeconomic modernization and then manage a deeper shift from an imperial to a national mindset regarding the new geopolitical realities not only in Central Europe but especially within the former Russian Empire before a real partnership with America could become a viable geopolitical option
    In its narrowest form, the "near abroad" priority involved the perfectly reasonable proposition that Russia must first concentrate on relations with the newly independent states, especially as all of them remained tied to Russia by the realities of the deliberately fostered Soviet policy of promoting economic interdependence among them. That made both economic and geopolitical sense. The "common economic space," of which the new Russian leaders spoke often, was a reality that could not be ignored by the leaders of the newly independent states. Cooperation, and even some integration, was an economic necessity. Thus, it was not only normal but desirable to promote joint CIS institutions in order to reverse the economic disruptions and fragmentation producedby the political breakup of the Soviet Union
    A typical but by no means extreme example was the argument made by Y. Ambartsumov, the chairman in 1993 of the parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee and a former advocate of the "partnership" priority, who openly asserted that the former Soviet space was an exclusive Russian sphere of geopolitical influence. In January 1994, he was echoed by the heretofore energetic advocate of the pro-Western priority, Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, who stated that Russia "must preserve its military presence in regions that have been in its sphere of interest for centuries." In fact, Izvestiia reported on April 8,1994, that Russia had succeeded in retaining no fewer than twenty-eight military bases on the soil of the newly independent states?and a line drawn on a map linking the Russian military deployments in Kaliningrad, Moldova, Crimea, Armenia, Tajikistan, and the Kuril Islands would roughly approximate the outer limits of the former Soviet Union, as in the map on page 108. In September 1995, President Yeltsin issued an official document on Russian policy toward the CIS that codified Russian goals as follows:
    [...]
    One should note the emphasis placed on the political dimension of the effort, on the reference to a single entity claiming "its" place in the world system, and on Russia's dominant role within that new entity. In keeping with this emphasis, Moscow insisted
    that political and military ties between Russia and the newly constituted CIS also be reinforced: that a common military command be created; that the armed forces of the CIS states be linked by a formal treaty; that the "external" borders of the CIS be subject to centralized (meaning Moscow's) control; that Russian forces play the decisive role in any peacekeeping actions within the CIS; and that a common foreign policy be shaped within the CIS, whose main institutions have come to be located in Moscow (and not in
    Minsk, as originally agreed in 1991), with the Russian president presiding at the CIS summit meetings. And that was not all. The September 1995 document also declared that Russian television and radio broadcasting in the near abroad should be guaranteed, the dissemination of Russian press in the region should be supported, and Russia should train national cadres for CIS states. Special attention should be given to restoring Russia's position as the main educational center on the territory of the post-Soviet space, bearing in mind the need to educate the young generation in CIS states in a spirit of friendly relations with Russia. Reflecting this mood, in early 1996 the Russian Duma went so far as to declare the dissolution of the Soviet Union to be invalid
    As early as the mid-1920s, this case was articulated persuasively by Prince N. S. Trubetzkoy, a leading exponent of Eurasianism, who wrote that [c]ommunism was in fact a disguised version of Europeanism in destroying the spiritual foundations and national uniqueness of Russian life, in propagating there the materialist frame of reference that actually governs both Europe and America ...Our task is to create a completely new culture, our own culture, which will not resemble European civilization ... when
    Russia ceases to be a distorted reflection of European civilization ... when she becomes once again herself: Russia-Eurasia, the conscious heir to and bearer of the great legacy of Genghis Khan.
    [...]
    Gumilev warned that adaptation to the West would mean nothing less for the Russian people than the loss of their own "ethnos and soul." These views were echoed, though more primitively, by a variety of Russian nationalist politicians These views were echoed, though more primitively, by a variety of Russian nationalist politicians. Yeltsin's former vice president, Aleksandr Rutskoi, for example, asserted that "it is apparent from looking at our country's geopolitical situation that Russia represents the only bridge between Asia and Europe. Whoever becomes the master of this space will become the master of the world." Yeltsin's 1996 Communist challenger, Gennadii Zyuganov, despite his Marxist-Leninist vocation, embraced Eurasianism's mystical emphasis on the special spiritual and missionary role of the Russian people in the vast spaces of Eurasia, arguing that Russia was thereby endowed both with a unique cultural vocation and with a specially advantageous geographic basis for the exercise of global leadership.
    To a degree, the attempt to assign to the "near abroad" the highest priority in Russian geopolitical thinking was justified in the sense that some measure of order and accommodation between postimperial Russia and the newly independent states was an absolute necessity, in terms of security and economics. However, what gave much of the discussion a surrealistic touch was the lingering notion that in some fashion, whether it came about either voluntarily (because of economics) or as a consequence of Russia's eventual recovery of its lost power?not to speak of Russia's special Eurasian or Slavic mission?the political "integration" of the former empire was both desirable and feasible. In this regard, the frequently invoked comparison with the EU
    neglects a crucial distinction: the EU, even allowing for Germany's special influence, is not dominated by a single power that alone overshadows all the other members combined, in relative GNP, population, or territory. Nor is the EU the successor to a national
    empire, with the liberated members deeply suspicious that "integration" is a code word for renewed subordination. Even so, one can easily imagine what the reaction of the European states would have been if Germany had declared formally that its goal was to
    consolidate and expand its leading role in the EU along the lines of Russia's pronouncement of September 1995 cited earlier.
    The analogy with the EU suffers from yet another deficiency. The open and relatively developed Western European economies were ready for democratic integration, and the majority of Western Europeans perceived tangible economic and political benefits in
    such integration. The poorer West European countries were also able to benefit from substantial subsidies. In contrast, the newly independent states viewed Russia as politically unstable, as still entertaining domineering ambitions, and, economically, as an obstacle to their participation in the global economy and to their access to much-needed foreign investment. Opposition to Moscow's notions of "integration" was particularly strong in Ukraine. Its leaders quickly recognized that such "integration," especially in light of Russian reservations regarding the legitimacy of Ukrainian independence, would eventually lead to the loss of national sovereignty. Moreover, the heavy-handed Russian treatment of the new Ukrainian state?its unwillingness to grant recognition of Ukraine's borders, its questioning of Ukraine's right to Crimea, its insistence on exclusive extraterritorial control over the port of Sevastopol?gave the aroused Ukrainian national-ism a distinctively anti-Russian edge. The self-definition of Ukrainian nationhood, during the critical formative stage in the history of the new state, was thus diverted from its traditional anti-Polish or anti-Romanian orientation and became focused instead on opposition to any Russian proposals for a more integrated CIS, for a special Slavic community (with Russia and Belarus), or for a Eurasian Union, deciphering them as Russian imperial tactics.
    Ukraine's determination to preserve its independence was encouraged by external support. Although initially the West, especially the United States, had been tardy in recognizing the geopolitical importance of a separate Ukrainian state, by the mid1990s both America and Germany had become strong backers of Kiev's separate identity. In July 1996, the U.S. secretary of defense declared, "I cannot overestimate the importance of Ukraine as an independent country to the security and stability of all of Europe,"
    while in September, the German chancellor?notwithstanding his strong support for President Yeltsin?went even further in declaring that "Ukraine's firm place in Europe can no longer be challenged by anyone ... No one will be able any more to dispute
    Ukraine's independence and territorial integrity." American policy makers also came to describe the American-Ukrainian relationship as "a strategic partnership," deliberately invoking the same phrase used to describe the American-Russian relationship.
    Without Ukraine, as already noted, an imperial restoration based either on the CIS or on Eurasianism was not a viable option. An empire without Ukraine would eventually mean a Russia that would become more "Asianized" and more remote from Europe.
    Moreover, Eurasianism was also not especially appealing to the newly independent Central Asians, few of whom were eager for a new union with Moscow.
    Uzbekistan became particularly assertive in supporting Ukraine's objections to any elevation of the CIS into a supranational entity and in opposing the Russian initiatives designed to enhance the CIS. Other CIS states, also wary of Moscow's intentions, tended to
    cluster around Ukraine and Uzbekistan in opposing or evading Moscow's pressures for closer political and military integration. Moreover, a sense of national consciousness was deepening in almost alt of the new states, a consciousness increasingly focused
    on repudiating past submission to Moscow as colonialism and on eradicating its various legacies. Thus, even the ethnically vulnerable Kazakstan joined the other Central Asian states in abandoning the Cyrillic alphabet and replacing it with the Latin script as
    adapted earlier by Turkey. In effect, by the mid-1990s a bloc, quietly led by Ukraine and comprising Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and sometimes also Kazakstan, Georgia, and Moldova, had informally emerged to obstruct Russian efforts to use the CIS
    as the tool for political integration.
    In brief, the ultimate geopolitical inadequacy of the "near abroad" priority was that Russia was not strong enough politically to impose its will and not attractive enough economically to be able to seduce the new states. Russian pressure merely made them seek more external ties, first and foremost with the West but in some cases also with China and the key Islamic countries to the south. When Russia threatened to form its own military bloc in response to NATO's expansion, it begged the question "With whom?" And it begged the even more painful answer: at the most, maybe with Belarus and Tajikistan. The new states, if anything, were increasingly inclined to distrust even perfectly legitimate and needed forms of economic integration with Russia, fearing their potential political consequences. At the same time, the notions of Russia's alleged Eurasian mission and of the Slavic mystique served only to isolate Russia further from Europe and, more generally, from the West, thereby perpetuating the post-Soviet crisis and delaying the needed modernization and westernization of Russian society along the lines of what Kemal Ataturk did in Turkey in the wake of the Ottoman Empire's collapse. The "near abroad" option thus offered Russia not a geopolitical solution but a geopolitical illusion.
    The second requirement may be even more difficult to swallow. A truly cooperative relationship with the transatlantic community cannot be based on the notion that those democratic states of Europe that wish to be part of it can be excluded because of a Russian say-so. The expansion of that community need not be rushed, and it certainly should not be promoted on an anti-Russian theme. But neither can it, nor should it, be halted by a political fiat that itself reflects an antiquated notion of European security relations. An expanding and democratic Europe has to be an open-ended historical process, not subject to politically arbitrary geographic limits.
    For Ukraine, the central issues are the future character of the CIS and freer access to energy sources, which would lessen Ukraine's dependence on Russia. In that regard, closer relations with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have become important to Kiev, with Ukrainian support for the more independentminded states being an extension of Ukraine's efforts to enhance its own independence from Moscow. Accordingly, Ukraine has supported Georgia's efforts to become the westward route for Azeri oil exports. Ukraine has also collaborated with Turkey in order to weaken Russian influence in the Black Sea and has supported Turkish efforts to direct oil flows from Central Asia to Turkish terminals


    In other words, if Russia keeps wanting to conquer Ukraine, it will show that it is turning away from peace and democracy, while the West should try its hardest to grow cooperatively with Russia so it isn't captivated by such a lust for power and instead joins the EU and NATO. Both Germany and the US understood from the beginning that Russia in friendship with an independent Poland and Ukraine was the key to promoting a healthy democratic relationship on the continent. Sounds like you and Brzezinski would agree on a lot. You should revisit your appraisal of commentators who lie to you with a pro-fascist axe to grind. The root of the conflict is Russian, particularly Putinist, arrogance and imperialism, not European provocations or some obscure American machination.

    On a lighter note, here's a quite funny aside from the book: "However, a coalition allying Russia with both China and Iran can develop only if the United States is shortsighted enough to antagonize China and Iran simultaneously."
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-21-2022 at 01:16.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


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  19. #439
    The Philosopher Duke Member Suraknar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Nice reply, I have to say you given me some food for thought which I appreciate. Overall I do not think that we are in any grand disagreement.

    Where I do not wholly agree is when it comes to the narrative that Western Media (especially US Media) is pushing on to us all. So I read with a huge grain of salt, ignoring narratives and opinions and sticking only to pure reporting of events and generally read them on a peripheral mode just to know what they say and push but they hold little actual value and since they always have an agenda of their own which is biased.

    That said...

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    In the end we ignored it by not confronting Russia thoroughly enough. We rewarded Putin's provocations.
    I agree from our perspective in the west, but I would disagree if I put myself in Putin's shoes.

    From Putin's perspective, Russia is not the one establishing bases all around the world pushing and imposing its economic and political interests. And thanks to Wikileaks and Assange's Efforts we know how it all works now. But most importantly Russia is not acting like if the world is unipolar and it is the sole superpower that has a "carte blanche" of action. Which brings us to the matter of grievances...

    You say...

    Anyone can claim anything as a grievance. The US has claimed many grievances against many countries. That a grievance exists doesn't make it credible, legitimate, or productive. But again, it is a huge mistake to think of this war as having arisen out of some grievance against the West. The casus belli for Russian nationalists is much more inward-looking. It's anxiety about the imagined integrity of their "Russian World," not any hostile actions of the European World or the American World.
    Yet what comes off as : "We do not care what anyone has to say, we do not care about their concerns"...and that has been an arrogant mistake, in international diplomacy.

    Grievances are a way that Diplomats communicate in reality during International Diplomacy and should always be taken seriously with due attention.

    Putin did not wake up one day and told himself "oh lets invade Ukraine" following a stroke or one too many drinks the night before or out of feelings of isolation and loneliness, nor did he make a deal with teh Devil to be the arch Evil Master of the Universe.

    Putin has been expressing himself through grievances that he, as representative of the interests of Russia, considers important on many occasions since 2005 and especially his address in Munich in 2007.

    Putin Says U.S. Is Undermining Global Stability
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...53774820070210
    https://www.dw.com/en/putin-slams-us...rous/a-2343749

    Any serious Diplomat and Politician would take this seriously and not dismiss it.

    Interestingly with recent actual Russian-Ukrainian War going on, some have been thinking about all this in retrospect, a nice read here I find.

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...-2007-00009918

    With all due respect, there was no civil war. We can't prevent conflicts in the future if we don't understand their causes and their nature.
    May I remind you that there has been a Civil War in Ukraine since 2014 when the Donbas Regions declared their Independence and the Ukrainian Government Chose to use force.

    Lets not get sidetracked here by Some mainstream media narrative mixing in the annexation of Crimea giving the impression that Russian Military Forces were in Donbas fighting against Ukrainian forces for all this time in some Ukrainian-Russia Conflict and undeclared War.

    Yes of course Russia helped the Separatists, gave them weapons etc even Russian Passports, but it is the Ukrainian Russian Speaking people of the area that have been receiving bombs and fighting back.

    There are many European media that went on the terrain to Document the situation speak with the people that exist. Here is one from ARTE, ENG Subs.



    It is why I say that we the West missed an opportunity to avert the Civil War's Casualties and it duration for 8 years. Which could very possibly have averted the current Russia-Ukraine War.

    Mind you, we also help militarily Ukraine during that time providing both weapons and training, since 2015, the mission started after Maidan.

    Here Lt-Col, M. Lake.

    https://youtu.be/7OUfYYHNBuE


    Why would Putin have allowed Blue Helmets into Donbas? He claimed to be sending Russian soldiers as peacekeepers! Orwell warned us.
    Because he said so in his speech in Munich in 2007.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    I am convinced that the only mechanism that can make decisions about using military force as
    a last resort is the Charter of the United Nations. And in connection with this, either I did not
    understand what our colleague, the Italian Defence Minister, just said or what he said was
    inexact. In any case, I understood that the use of force can only be legitimate when the decision
    is taken by NATO, the EU, or the UN. If he really does think so, then we have different points
    of view. Or I didn’t hear correctly. The use of force can only be considered legitimate if the
    decision is sanctioned by the UN. And we do not need to substitute NATO or the EU for the
    UN. When the UN will truly unite the forces of the international community and can really
    react to events in various countries, when we will leave behind this disdain for international
    law, then the situation will be able to change. Otherwise the situation will simply result in a
    dead end, and the number of serious mistakes will be multiplied


    The Speech here as a reference, the quote around 11:20

    https://youtu.be/hQ58Yv6kP44

    As I said, peacekeepers don't make peace. Only the armed groups involved, and their leadership, can do that. The United Nations could not have acted without the consent and cooperation of Russia.
    With all due respect, I believe I said that I understand well the role of the Blue Helms. And that along with above and previous explanation, I strongly think that we missed an opportunity to show Putin that everyone including NATO and the US are subject to International Law and the Importance of the UN in maintaining peace.

    Instead, what we have repeatedly shown to Putin and Russia is that the US its Alliance NATO and its Allies EU can when they want to act and decide irrespective of the UN and above its Law.

    This is precisely the sum of what he pointed out in 2007 in my view, and we the west fell for its trap by dismissing the grievance and continuing to do as we pleased according to our own volition. We failed to show that we do not consider ourselves "above the Law" and that we stand equally with everyone else.

    American Imperialism is not a unknown.

    American Imperialism

    Now it maybe that Putin knew that the West will ignore the grievance and simply sprang the Trap for us to fall in and open the way for him to follow his own agenda if an Imperialist Russia rather than the Democratic Russia everyone was hoping about.

    Of course this is Speculation on my part of a "Conspiracy Theory" or scenario for Putin's scheme that I am advancing here, yet it is also a plausible one.

    Lets consider a few statements:
    If we assume that Putin is a "good guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense of justice and against the unjust, to the benefit of all.

    If we assume that Putin is an "ugly guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense to own agenda and against its obstacles, to own benefit.

    If we assume that Putin is an "bad guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense of injustice and against justice, to the benefit of none.

    The real question is, what are we truly fighting for? I do not think that we fight for no one's benefit. So do we fight for the benefit of all or for our own benefit? Because if we are fighting for our own benefit then we are also ugly and not in a good position...to dictate anything to anyone...

    Putin may have put the world to the test in 2007....

    The great dilemma of anarchism is, how can one eliminate or repress power without power?
    Indeed a great dilemma. In my view, "Si vis pacem, para bellum", seems to be the answer till now.

    However I think this is a vicious circle that can only lead to the self destruction of the Human Race one way or another. Either we will die from the destruction of the Ecosystem during the competition with one another or we will find a way to launch those nukes.

    The Solution, I think lets say on a philosophical level, would be to have the courage to decide to mutually give up all power in favor of unified peace. Win by not playing the game.

    Since however, the Human Race is not as enlightened yet, the second best solution could be, to gradually transfer that power towards a global organization with mandate to keep and make the peace upon earth.

    With enough re-organization such power could be the UN, and the ideal situation would be for each country to take a portion of its armed forces and industries and dedicate them to the UN authority and then dismantle and retire any National Armed forces all over the planet.

    Like so, the only Standing Army of the world would be the UN Defense Forces and will now have the additional role of peace makers on top of peace keepers. This UN Defense Force would be subject to the Democratic Authority.

    With as basis the Human Rights Charter a Global Constitution can be drafted, and the UN reorganized in Judiciairy, Legislative, Executive and Oversight bodies of elected representatives from all the Nations and Cultures of the world.

    But it's not a solution, it's a desirable end-state depicting what comes after the solution(s). It's like saying immortality is a solution to death - how is that condition brought about? Everyone wishes for peace and prosperity in the abstract (do you think Putin wants war for its own sake?) but if wishes were ponies, everyone would ride. Gandhi wanted peace, and though he didn't get it he did work for it. Hitler wanted peace too, peace under the Thousand-Year Reich, and we had to deliver peace to him at the barrel of a gun.

    So we have to be more sophisticated than just expressing approval of good concepts and cogitate in terms of right and wrong, and cause and effect. What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?
    Yes I know you want a technical answer, but I do think that is a mistake, that will simply lead us to the same position in which we are here now. And because this is eaxctly how everyone functions now.

    the West considers this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?"..Russia considers this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?", China Considers this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?"...Everyone considers this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?"

    The only result is ... many enemies that conflict with our goals. ;)

    Change, requires us to change Twice.

    We really have to acknowledge that the way to win is to not play the game first, we have to truly acknowledge the good concepts first yes. And then upon that new way of thinking upon that new world view we work on the technicalities and the details of how we all TOGETHER want to make that world view a reality.

    Any other way can only lead to competition and conflict. And the answer is not competition, but rather cooperation.

    "Yes but what happens when some disagree and refuse to Cooperate?" you may say, well then we must sit down and try to understand why, and find solutions to solve disagreement and create the environment of agreement so that cooperation can take place towards the common world view.

    This is NOT what we are doing now. What we are doing is trying to suppress or eliminate or check mate whomever disagrees and refuses to get onboard. It can only lead to further conflict. "My way or the Highway"..is not the way...though, in my view.

    The reality is that the rhetoric of self-determination with respect to - by now pre-war - Russian-controlled Donbas is only Russian propaganda. The double standard is in only listening to a dictator's side of the story. Putin did not respect the locals' self-determination when he installed military government in Crimea and Donbas, expelled pro-Ukrainian people from their homes, imported Russian colonists, and forcefully kept the Ukrainian government from exercising its sovereignty. The Ukrainian government never violated any group's or region's right to self-determination in this way. The common people of the region, before the confrontation began, did not want to secede from Ukraine. It is only the case that Putin's government and Russian nationalists wanted to grab territory for Russia.

    Now, as a result of sorting and other social effects between Ukrainian and Russian-controlled regions over 8 years, there is actually a significant divergence between the attitudes of the populations - or there was before the war, it's harder to say now. Unsurprisingly, people living under Russian control became more pro-Russian than people living under Ukrainian control. But even so, an honest referendum in even Russian-annexed Donbas would probably choose to remain part of Ukraine. Just because a dictator doesn't like that fact is not a provocation toward him - it should rather be a provocation for every one of us who rejects a world ruled by greed and lust for power!!"
    This is a Narrative from Western Mainstream Media which mixes two events in to one blurring reality which neglects to take under account the wishes and desires of some 800 thousand to a million people in the Donbass who want to have the right to decide for themselves.

    As for the Double standard, I refer to the treatment of Yemen, Syria, even Iraq and certainly Cyprus, where was the outcry for sanctions then? Where was the Cancellation of the Invaders? Where were the Billions of Dollars in armaments to defend from the Invaders? Where was the quick reception of Refugees?

    We knew how to use the Blue Helms in Cyprus but not in Ukraine...uh huh.

    https://greekreporter.com/2022/03/01...kraine-russia/

    Back to current crisis,

    Again, there is ample record and on the field Documentaries that expose the situation in the last 8 years in the region. Of course Putin as politician with own Agenda for Russia and as per previous comments above will side with the people who side with him and try to help them to achieve their independence or merging with the Russian Federation.

    But I feel like we are neglecting these people just out of our poise to counter Putin. I feel like to some degree there is a level of discrimination against Russia all together.

    And also, there is this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?", which compels the West to dismiss Russia and Putin and fail to take under account his grievances and those of anyone who supports Russia.

    The 14,000 deaths of the Ukrainian Civil War are all Documented here year after year:

    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/202...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/202...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/202...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/201...apters/ukraine
    https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2016/country-chapters/ukraine

    In addition to these I invite you to watch and consider the following videos recording the advent of Nationalist Groups and Batallions in Ukraine in the past years harboring NAzi allures (which are of course what Russia and ex and ousted Ukrainian President refer to as Nazis)

    Mind you all these are from Western Media.

    From BBC


    and

    and


    And this one from The Guardian




    These cannot, but now have, been ignored, in favor of anti-Putin narrative.

    https://greekcitytimes.com/2022/03/0...ist-ukrainian/

    Mind you this from European Union Parliament, just days before Russian Invasion.

    https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo...7_NTwr0862CgXE

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Ukrainian fanaticism has already claimed the first lives in this fresh conflict. On 13 February 2022, two Ukrainians of Greek descent were perceived as enemies and killed and two others were injured in a act perpetrated by individuals who were, in all likelihood, fanatical Ukrainian soldiers.

    According to the ‘Save Donbass’ representative, the circumstances surrounding the two deaths, the identity of the soldiers, their unit and the likelihood of them being brought before a military tribunal have not been elucidated.

    The area is being terrorised by not only Ukrainian soldiers but also mercenaries and neo-Nazi security forces. Although Ukraine has ratified the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities, it appears that non-Ukrainians are, without exception, no longer welcome in the country.

    The attack took place in the village of Hranitne, which is home to a community of around 3 500 Greeks that has been living there for about 2 500 years and speaks a dialect similar to that spoken in the Georgian district of Tsalka. The first Greek church and school were erected there in the 7th century.


    Personally I have parents who lived during NAZI occupation of Athens. And just watching these stirs bad feelings to me, could be the stories that my parents shared with me and even some epigenetic memory of that terrible period. Suffice it to say that in many countries of Europe the memory of Nazism is still quite vivid.

    I've read this book. Two things, and both are important. First, there is zero evidence that American foreign policy in Ukraine is or has ever been some sort of calculated spiteful suppression of Russia's place under the sun. Second, that is not what Brzezinski wrote. THAT IS A LIE - MADE UP. Whoever that Swiss commentator is, they were trying to deceive their readers.
    I have not read the Book yet. But I ordered a copy. So I go witch what you linked and I appreciate the correction. It is interesting that another writer, (R?GIS DE CASTELNAU) wrote something very similar, and I quote but it is in French I do not know if you read French (I speak several languages actually) but I will translate for you.

    https://www.vududroit.com/2022/03/le...-monde-ancien/

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Le r?veil des adeptes occidentaux du court-termisme a ?t? brutal et douloureux. Et c’est ainsi que la question russe est devenue primordiale. Tous les ?tudiants de ce pays qui envisagent des ?tudes historiques, politiques ou diplomatiques sont tenus de lire int?gralement le livre de Zbigniew Brzeziński Le grand ?chiquier o? le conseiller ?cout? des pr?sidents am?ricains expose avec franchise, voir cynisme, la th?orie selon laquelle l’am?lioration du monde et sa stabilit? d?pendent du maintien de l’h?g?monie des ?tats-Unis. Tout pays devenant concurrent est d?s lors consid?r? comme une menace pour la stabilit? mondiale. Et pour lui, la Russie doit ?tre neutralis?e, voire d?mantel?e. Pour la bonne raison qu’il faut la d?tacher d’une Europe qui ainsi ne peut pas redevenir une puissance, restant ainsi soumise ? l’h?g?monie am?ricaine. Les ?tats-Unis pouvant ainsi se tourner vers le Pacifique et la Chine o? ils savent qu’aura lieu l’affrontement pr?vu par Thucydide.


    Basically it says this :

    "The awakening of Western followers of short-termism has been brutal and painful. And this is how the Russian question became paramount. All students in this country who are considering historical, political or diplomatic studies are required to read Zbigniew Brzeziński's book 'The Grand Chessboard' in its entirety. In it, the adviser, listened to by American presidents, exposes frankly even cynically, the theory that improving the world and its stability depend on the maintenance of the hegemony of the United States. Any country becoming a competitor is therefore considered a threat to global stability.

    And for him, Russia must be neutralized, even dismantled. For the simple reason that it must be detached from a Europe which thus cannot become a power again, thus remaining subject to the hegemony of America. The United States can thus turn to the Pacific and China where they know that the confrontation planned by Thucydides will take place."


    According to this it looks like, Brzezinski would agrees with you in turn, when you say "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?" kind of approach. Which will inevitably lead to War for all as I already explained above.

    Having said this, I cannot really debate the meaning or the book since I have not read it yet myself. Thus, I will come back to this point in the future :)

    What Brzezinski wrote about was Russian national recovery and its democratization and "Europeanization," and the peril of Russian nationalists rediscovering "messianism" over pragmatism.

    In other words, if Russia keeps wanting to conquer Ukraine, it will show that it is turning away from peace and democracy, while the West should try its hardest to grow cooperatively with Russia so it isn't captivated by such a lust for power and instead joins the EU and NATO. Both Germany and the US understood from the beginning that Russia in friendship with an independent Poland and Ukraine was the key to promoting a healthy democratic relationship on the continent. Sounds like you and Brzezinski would agree on a lot. You should revisit your appraisal of commentators who lie to you with a pro-fascist axe to grind. The root of the conflict is Russian, particularly Putinist, arrogance and imperialism, not European provocations or some obscure American machination.
    Yes the excerpts that you quoted showed as much and I gathered as much, and you are right I find myself elated to read some passages because indeed they seem, at least in a wishful way to agree with me or me with them (being younger and such lets show respect), part of the reason which compelled me to order the book ;)

    What I am most curious about, is that of the case where Russia does not follow the wishful path of becoming Democratic and in line with the west. What is the recommendation for the US and the west then? I suppose I will have to read that when the Book arrives.

    Nevertheless, one thing is certain, Putin follows the path that is not wished by the west. Russia chose to be Imperialist instead. I think we are all in agreement here. More specifically I think that Russia seems to follow the path explained in this Book.

    Foundations of Geopolitics

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

    Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.


    The point I like to make however in closing is that we knew, since 2007 that Russia made that Choice.

    And what I have come to conclude is that either :

    1- We continued acting in such a way as to bring Russia (provoke?) to make such decisions hoping to destabilize and dismantle Russia and cripple it, in accordance to our plan.

    or,

    2- We were so naive and Putin played us all, maneuvered the world to make mistakes so he can justify his ambitions according to imperialistic path and his plan.

    or,

    3- A combination of the two, like a revolving Ying Yang.

    Time will tell, once more we are all assisting in the making of History. I just wish so many people did not suffer for it

    On a lighter note, here's a quite funny aside from the book: "However, a coalition allying Russia with both China and Iran can develop only if the United States is shortsighted enough to antagonize China and Iran simultaneously."
    Now that is indeed funny in an ironic way HAHA
    Last edited by Suraknar; 04-23-2022 at 08:52. Reason: typos etc.
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  20. #440

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    "Who says dumb artillery rounds can't kill armor?"

    "THE PLA’S EVOLVING OUTLOOK ON URBAN WARFARE: LEARNING, TRAINING, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR TAIWAN"

    What the heck is the Phoenix Ghost? US DoD claims to have developed it as a loitering munition in the past month, for Ukraine-specific use cases, with 121 samples (?) committed just now. There's apparently a lot of GLOMAR around them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Suraknar View Post
    From Putin's perspective, Russia is not the one establishing bases all around the world pushing and imposing its economic and political interests. And thanks to Wikileaks and Assange's Efforts we know how it all works now. But most importantly Russia is not acting like if the world is unipolar and it is the sole superpower that has a "carte blanche" of action. Which brings us to the matter of grievances...
    The existence of American bases - Russia seeks bases abroad too - can't be used to justify whatever one pleases. It's a non-sequitur.

    Yet what comes off as : "We do not care what anyone has to say, we do not care about their concerns"...and that has been an arrogant mistake, in international diplomacy.
    there is a difference between understanding an actor's perspective and accepting or acceding to it.

    Putin has been expressing himself through grievances that he, as representative of the interests of Russia, considers important on many occasions since 2005 and especially his address in Munich in 2007.
    These grievances, as presented here for the sake of precision, are awful and ought to be rejected. Imagine if Donald Trump came to Denmark and said, in his opinion, the United States by its interests deserves to "own Greenland." Who would accept that the US' "grievances" deserve a respectful hearing, let alone fulfillment? Or alternatively, when American power forced the UN to give George Bush a hearing over a year as he asserted that Iraq's existence constituted an existential threat to American interests and security? As I said, merely claiming a grievance doesn't make it legitimate. We should have a grievance against Putin's grievances.

    May I remind you that there has been a Civil War in Ukraine since 2014 when the Donbas Regions declared their Independence and the Ukrainian Government Chose to use force.
    It is why I say that we the West missed an opportunity to avert the Civil War's Casualties and it duration for 8 years. Which could very possibly have averted the current Russia-Ukraine War.
    But it's not true. Who declares independence? Anyone who can roll into a police precinct or government office with guns and claim to be in charge? Russia sent soldiers to occupy a region of Ukraine. The large majority of separatists were Russian nationals supplied and supported by Russia. The leadership of these movements were all Russian military, ex-military, KGB, FSB, etc. Most of the native manpower of the separatist militaries following the Minsk ceasefire were forcibly conscripted. That is conquest, not a declaration of independence. Ukraine's government was perfectly reasonable in fighting back. Mandatory surrender to whomever threatens you with violence is a terrible standard in human terms, and it's not even a standard I can recall applied anywhere else in the world except Russia's areas of interest.

    Russia invaded Ukraine. Ukraine fought back. Most people occupied by Russia did not want it to happen, and by doing so Russia violated their right to self-determination and Ukraine's rights as a country. There. Was. No. Civil. War. Even if we could stipulate that the situation represented a civil war in an alternate scenario, for the West to have done something to force Ukraine to cede this territory to Russia on fabricated and coercive pretenses would have been an extreme injustice. All the worse then to advocate it in our timeline.

    Because he said so in his speech in Munich in 2007.
    You have to notice that he lied. Politicians can do that. Compare their words to their actions.



    Exactly so. If Putin wanted UN peacekeepers around, he would have invited them himself, as the actual influential party. But he didn't, because he was the one instigating the conflict, and he was instigating the conflict because he believed it would benefit himself and his government's power, regardless of the human cost.

    Instead, what we have repeatedly shown to Putin and Russia is that the US its Alliance NATO and its Allies EU can when they want to act and decide irrespective of the UN and above its Law.
    It doesn't make sense to me. Putin breaks international law, so to show how much we value international law we should reward him? Is that supposed to convince him to respect international law?

    This is precisely the sum of what he pointed out in 2007 in my view, and we the west fell for its trap by dismissing the grievance and continuing to do as we pleased according to our own volition. We failed to show that we do not consider ourselves "above the Law" and that we stand equally with everyone else.
    The way you express your perspective on the Ukraine conflict's goes against my values, and I think it contradicts your statement of your own as well. If we applied your reasoning to the United States, Iraq should be the 51st state, or maybe even the 69th or something. If we want to uphold humanist values and international law and anti-imperialism, we should do that for and by our own account, not help aggressive countries uphold terror and imperialism and wreck international law. Using the Saudis as an example, it would hardly further international law or Yemen's peace to pick a side directly and bomb Yemenis with our own planes. There's no logic I can see here other than 'the most aggressive can do whatever they want, no matter who it hurts, if they oppose the West in some way.'

    Why is this any better for the world than advocating for Washington DC to settle all matters however it pleases (but especially by force)?

    If we assume that Putin is a "good guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense of justice and against the unjust, to the benefit of all.

    If we assume that Putin is an "ugly guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense to own agenda and against its obstacles, to own benefit.

    If we assume that Putin is an "bad guy", then it must follow that he is acting in defense of injustice and against justice, to the benefit of none.
    All of those propositions are fallacious. To the extent you can characterize any person as "good" or "bad" per se, their character is judged by the nature and result of their actions, not their actions by a preconception of their character.

    If a "good guy" rapes a 10-year old, that doesn't make it a "good rape" compared to a "bad guy" doing the same thing. That's - very strange reasoning.

    Even before the war, Putin was a strongman who pillaged his country, destroyed internal democracy, and promoted extreme social and economic inequality. That makes him a pretty bad guy by most standards. Based on such character and prior actions, we would expect him to do further bad things we might find detestable. Therefore:

    Putin may have put the world to the test in 2007....
    I agree, but not in the way you seem to think.

    The real question is, what are we truly fighting for? I do not think that we fight for no one's benefit. So do we fight for the benefit of all or for our own benefit? Because if we are fighting for our own benefit then we are also ugly and not in a good position...to dictate anything to anyone...
    Resisting fascism is always a good thing, but especially now that the world is becoming increasingly violent, chaotic, unequal. It's a very simple calculus for us as individuals. What are the implications for the people of Russia, of Ukraine, of the world, if Putin and his military are defeated, compared to if they are helped in conquering Ukraine? On one hand, brutal dictatorial aggression will have been punished in the eyes of the world, and both Russia and Ukraine might have a chance to recover from their suffering and overall post-Soviet stagnation. If Ukraine is conquered on the other hand, everyone sees that imperialism pays and democracy is for chumps, while Ukraine ceases to exist as a country, with way over ten million Ukrainians fleeing to Europe and elsewhere with all the costs and tragedies that implies, hundreds of thousands of those left behind executed or deported by their new overlords, the rest suppressed under ethnonationalist totalitarianism, and Putin himself empowered to rule his country with an iron fist in search of new wars.

    It's very obvious to me what is wrong and what is right.



    Any other way can only lead to competition and conflict. And the answer is not competition, but rather cooperation.
    Competition is cooperation. The trick we're looking for is how to expand the circle of cooperation maximally, such that all people have, and feel they have, a responsibility toward all of one another.

    "Yes but what happens when some disagree and refuse to Cooperate?" you may say, well then we must sit down and try to understand why, and find solutions to solve disagreement and create the environment of agreement so that cooperation can take place towards the common world view.

    This is NOT what we are doing now. What we are doing is trying to suppress or eliminate or check mate whomever disagrees and refuses to get onboard. It can only lead to further conflict. "My way or the Highway"..is not the way...though, in my view.
    The only result is ... many enemies that conflict with our goals. ;)
    and the details of how we all TOGETHER want to make that world view a reality.
    Well, yes. All human sociality is characterized by the conflict of goals and interests. Who is this "together" and where does its unity come from?

    You can't handwave the genesis and maintenance of this "common world view", as that's the entirety of the problem! People like Hitler and Pol Pot tried to confront it by the physical destruction of everyone who stood in the way of their common worldview, but of course that didn't and doesn't work. The promotion of human unity, from the global species down to the smallest groups and family units, has been one of the thorniest problems in all of political sicience, sociology, and philosophy. If you want to succeed where all others have failed, an excellent technical solution to the problem surely needs to be presented.

    All the same, if someone accosts you in the street and demands all your belongings, you can't rely on creating an "environment of agreement so that cooperation can take place" to resolve the conflict. That's not to say that you should immediately resort to violence, but that negotiation will rarely help you in that kind of circumstance. Sometimes people create mutually-antagonistic, zero-sum, conflicts, and one side might even be better than the other, and worth protecting.



    This is a Narrative from Western Mainstream Media which mixes two events in to one blurring reality which neglects to take under account the wishes and desires of some 800 thousand to a million people in the Donbass who want to have the right to decide for themselves.
    It's just the objective fact of the matter. It is Russian propaganda to say that because a minority have political disagreements with a government - not even secession, just political disagreement - then rather than seeking a peaceful negotiation a neighboring country can simply annex that whole area by force and rule it.

    Few* contradicted Yeltsin and Putin on Russia's right to destroy the Chechen rebellion as a threat to Russian territorial integrity and security on internationally-recognized Russian soil - Bill Clinton and European leaders went so far as to express their support - and vastly more Chechens wanted autonomy from Russia than residents of Donbass from Ukraine, and Russia was vastly more brutal to its separatists than Ukraine was to its own, and Chechens in Russia had fewer rights than Donbass residents in Ukraine.

    *Interestingly, Brzezinski was part of the American Committee for Peace in Chechnya, which only even went to the point of petitioning "Russia to take constructive steps toward negotiating a peaceful resolution of the conflict with the leadership of the Chechen government."

    Should we take into account the views of all separatists everywhere and perhaps demand Russia hold independence referendums (maybe a success threshold of 40 or 20% would make it extra-fair?) in every one of its provinces? If it doesn't, will the US or any other country be justified in sending soldiers and volunteers, and arming insurgents against the Russian government? Is this what self-determination looks like?

    As for the Double standard, I refer to the treatment of Yemen, Syria, even Iraq and certainly Cyprus, where was the outcry for sanctions then? Where was the Cancellation of the Invaders? Where were the Billions of Dollars in armaments to defend from the Invaders? Where was the quick reception of Refugees?
    Whataboutism is a cogntive fallacy. Take a stance on right and wrong, and apply it to events as they come. Advocate for the government policies that best match your version of the Good. One example might be a network of trade agreements that enforce high labor and environmental standards in all the members, because this promotes the common welfare. A bad example would be to cancel labor and environmental standards because some country doesn't accept or live up to them, because it cynically harms the common welfare.

    NATO could promote a sort of peace on Cyprus when the conflict flared because both Greece and Turkey were members, and therefore could be brought to concede to a process of international diplomacy. Had Greece and Turkey not been part of the same alliance, given their historical relationship they would have been mired in endless destructive conflict with each other and Turkey would simply have conquered all of Cyprus, probably after years of war. I'm not even saying one outcome is better than the other when it comes to the people of Cyprus specifically, but you have to be able to understand what happens and why.

    But I feel like we are neglecting these people just out of our poise to counter Putin.
    Whatever people you identify do not hold special status above others.

    If the United States government can find a thousand people in Ottawa, perhaps mostly Americans, who might want to live in the United States, it serves no one's rights for the US to conquer Ottawa, a terrible crime. What's next, maybe conquering Quebec? Some say those people don't want to be Canadian anyway!

    Or to make sweat run down Putin's neck, think of all the territories Russia has taken from China in the past. There are countless thousands of Chinese living in Russia who might wish to live under Chinese governance; should Xi Jinping send the People's Liberation Army to secure their "self-determination?" Or moreover, there are millions of Russians of Siberian or Turkic heritage - maybe the Chinese government could argue they are ethnically-closer to Han Chinese than to Russian Slavs, and so deserve to live under Xi rather than under Putin. How exciting to live in a world where large military powers can choose their own adventure.

    In 2014, anyone who disagreed with the policies of the new government had the opportunity to follow the usual practices of a democratic civil society. They could participate in politics to advance their viewpoint peacefully, they could live with the decisions of the majority, or they could relocate. Putin could have promoted a democratic discourse in Ukraine by showing Russia as an attractive country with something to offer, the way Germany does, and convinced more people in Ukraine to support Russia-leaning policy. But he didn't. Instead he installed a puppet government on whatever territory he could carve away from Ukraine.

    I have never heard of a political philosophy that says the most extreme and violent minorities, such as the few thousand single-citizenship Ukrainians who supported rebellion in 2014, have more rights than everyone else. There are principally two options for people who wage war on their own country on behalf of another: imprisonment or exile. In the case of Ukraine, everyone who falls under this rubric was awarded Russian citizenship, so after everything that has happened Ukraine should pursue a repatriation exchange for such people if it can evict the Russian military.

    I feel like to some degree there is a level of discrimination against Russia all together.
    What sort of dscrimination is it, and why is it wrong? If we disagree with Russian policies, why shouldn't we act on it? Let me just PM you my Paypal details, so you can transfer me $100. If you don't that's discrimination!Yes, that would be discrimination, and perfectly reasonable at that.

    Promote good things, mitigate bad things.

    And also, there is this "What is it that we want, how do we get it, and who is in conflict with our goals?", which compels the West to dismiss Russia and Putin and fail to take under account his grievances and those of anyone who supports Russia.
    The reality is that we failed to take into account the grievances of the people who don't support Russia, who are not somehow subhuman to those who do.

    To come with a gun and force people to join your country or die, as Putin is currently doing, is not and never will be self-determination. Anyone who supports it is fully opposed to self-determination! This is closer to the logic of the Islamic State and its claims to supervision of the self-determination of Muslim peoples, than the idea that collectives have a right to peacefully shape their own destinies.

    Previously you laid out a vision for a new world order. You described what you wanted and how you plan to get it, though less on how to overcome resistance to your goals. I and everyone else just does the same. There was nothing special or high-minded about my phrasing. The question every person must ask themselves is which goals and ends are worth supporting and how they can support them.

    The 14,000 deaths of the Ukrainian Civil War are all Documented here year after year:
    Ukraine defeated the rebellion in 2014. The Russian Army intervened to restore its gains. Had Putin withdrawn his forces from Ukraine, there would be no conflict. How this is Ukraine's fault escapes me.

    In addition to these I invite you to watch and consider the following videos recording the advent of Nationalist Groups and Batallions in Ukraine in the past years harboring NAzi allures (which are of course what Russia and ex and ousted Ukrainian President refer to as Nazis)
    If one opposes neo-Nazism, it's clearly contradictory not to oppose Russia's government. This kind of statement:

    These cannot, but now have, been ignored, in favor of anti-Putin narrative.
    is incoherent. To place condemnation of neo-Nazis as somehow in opposition to an "anti-Putin narrative" implies that Putin is not far-right - which he is - or is even on the left or anti-fascist - which he isn't.

    Ironically, this uncorroborated complaint was introduced by a member of Greek Solution, a Greek ultranationalist party. This oversight is symptomatic of self-defeating bias. It is a contradiction to condemn a country to destruction because Neo-Nazis exist within it, as they do in all countries, yet uncritically endorse countries, groups, or individuals that are specifically neo-Nazi, such as this Greek member or the Russian ultranationalists composing the Donbass separatist leadership.

    Does it make something better the more Nazis one adds? I'm put in mind of a sort of political homeopathy where one Nazi molecule (person) in a bottle makes it more potent than a whole jug of Nazi Juice.

    Rather, the starting point to curb fascism, Nazism, ultranationalism, etc. in Ukraine and worldwide is as follows:

    1. Break Vladimir Putin's power, a murderous, militaristic far-right dictator who has ruined his country and promotes similar figures throughout Europe and elsewhere.
    2. Stabilize Ukraine so that it is not under permanent threat or in a permanent state of war.
    3. Cancel Ukraine's debts and invest in its recovery and improving democratic participation so that it can develop as a country and society.

    Ukraine should be annexed by Russia because "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics". Ukraine should not be allowed to remain independent, unless it is cordon sanitaire, which would be inadmissible.
    This is the opinion of the fascist Alexander Dugin, which was indeed infused into in Putin's speech just prior to the war. Unfortunately the chauvinism most Russians felt toward Ukraine in the past has gradually, under Putin, metastasized in this direction. It's a pretty evil sentiment, no?

    2- We were so naive and Putin played us all, maneuvered the world to make mistakes so he can justify his ambitions according to imperialistic path and his plan.
    As Putin elaborated in his wartime speeches - and these should be most representative of his personal beliefs - he wants a world order in which China, Russia, and the US (and maybe a handful of other countries) hold some spheres of influence in which they dominate completely. By your own criticism of conflictual worldviews, you should recognize that he has the same 19th-century mindset of all the various kings and colonizers who lived at the time.

    From the very beginning of his tenure, remember, Putin announced that the decline in Russian imperial power was a great tragedy. His ambitions have been telegraphed for a long time; the surprising part is how far he would gamble for them.

    Yes, this mindset, these ambitions, are exactly the kind that could bring humanity to extinction this century. That's why it's so strange for me to hear that they deserve to be appeased (but apparently only when they come from a Russian president?).

    What I am most curious about, is that of the case where Russia does not follow the wishful path of becoming Democratic and in line with the west. What is the recommendation for the US and the west then? I suppose I will have to read that when the Book arrives.
    If you're planning to read the book for yourself, the Russia chapters are mostly Ch. 3-4. Brzezinski was a 20th century liberal realist, but also an idealist advocate of the liberal international order. He saw American primacy as supporting that order through its economic and military might by taking "the threat of war off the table." Of course the United States usually could not leverage its status to prevent wars outside Europe, and abused its power to greater or lesser degrees at various points. But everyone of any ideology had more or less the same answer for a Russia resurgent in its European imperial ambitions following the Cold War; it involved collective self-defense, because it is against a country's interests to be militarily threatened and destabilized. A lot of people just didn't think imperialism could rise within (as opposed to without) Europe again following two world wars.

    For all it's flaws, and really for all American government did to undermine its own project, the liberal international order is incalculably preferable and more workable than the 19th-century concert of great powers, where only military power mattered.y
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-24-2022 at 06:55.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  21. #441
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Excellent post Montmorency!

    Only thing to add. In regard to the Azov BN and any neo-nazi groups, they were formed in reaction to Russia's invasion in 2014 so it doesn't serve any narratives that people have about this always being a factor. I can see the point some people have in their concerns about the Azov as it is now a part of the Ukrainian military but I don't feel concerned myself as it's better that it's operating under some central control instead of being out in the fringe right now conducting terrorism and so on. Like in WW2, best to work with the French Resistance to include the communist ones so that there's a united effort against the common foe. After the conflict, be sure to reign them in again.


    What the heck is the Phoenix Ghost? US DoD claims to have developed it as a loitering munition in the past month, for Ukraine-specific use cases, with 121 samples (?) committed just now. There's apparently a lot of GLOMAR around them.
    It's like a cheaper Switchblade made to order for Ukraine.
    My guesses on what's different:
    1) Ukrainian and Russian language in initial design
    2) Probably designed to work with their Comms systems so that if they are doing EW Jamming or something it's not the freqs they typically use.
    3) Probably some cheaper parts as it is going straight to combat and not necessary to survive in storage for years before use.
    4)Perhaps a standard shaped charge warhead for penetrating top armor of tanks

    Large fire at oil depot in Russia's Bryansk, near Ukraine
    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-04-25/
    April 25 (Reuters) - A large fire was reported early on Monday at an oil storage facility in the Russian city of Bryansk, Russian news agencies said, citing the emergency services ministry, but gave no details.

    There was no immediate indication the fire was related to the war in Ukraine, although Russian officials said last week that Ukrainian helicopters hit residential buildings and injured seven people in the area.
    Fire in Tver:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...20to%20reports.
    Seven people have been killed after a huge fire broke out at a key Russian defence research institute in Tver, north-west of Moscow, according to reports.
    https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...85222150303745
    This is allegedly the Moscow Oblast Governor, Andrey Vorobyov's mansion, on fire today. This mansion is over 2000 m? (21,500 ft?). Vorobyov's family also own real estate in Italy
    .

    I'm starting to wonder if there's a major campaign of Ukrainian saboteurs in Russia's 'deep areas' or if this is from Russians in protest to the war. Seems a bit too many in too many days to be merely accidents and bad wiring.... Guess that's the problem when starting a war with a 'brother nation,' harder to keep internal security in check with so many common ties.
    Last edited by spmetla; 04-25-2022 at 05:06.

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
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    Four stage strategy from Yes, Minister:
    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

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  22. #442
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Looks like there is another "accidental" fire.

    Someone should update the fire suppression.

    In other news:

    https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/sta...15779985534978

    My favorite is the brand new clothing that clearly has creases in it. I am purposefully ignoring the lower hanging fruit here.
    Last edited by CrossLOPER; 04-25-2022 at 20:27.
    Requesting suggestions for new sig.

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  23. #443
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Explosions reported in Tiraspol, Transnistria near the building of State Security committee "MGB"
    https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-apr...nsnistria-near

    Some in Transnistria too

    "Am I not destroying my enemies when I make friends of them?"
    -Abraham Lincoln


    Four stage strategy from Yes, Minister:
    Stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
    Stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

  24. #444

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Maybe it's the legendary Belarusian partisan.

    The Russians hadn’t taken into account the railway saboteurs of Belarus.

    Starting in the earliest days of the invasion in February, a clandestine network of railway workers, hackers and dissident security forces went into action to disable or disrupt the railway links connecting Russia to Ukraine through Belarus, wreaking havoc on Russian supply lines.
    [...]
    The attacks were simple but effective, targeting the signal control cabinets essential to the functioning of the railways, members of the activist network said. For days on end, the movement of trains was paralyzed, forcing the Russians to attempt to resupply their troops by road and contributing to the snarl-up that stalled the infamous 40-mile military convoy north of Kyiv.
    The Cyber Partisans launched the first attack, hacking into the railway’s computer network in the days leading up to the invasion and snarling rail traffic before Russian troops had even crossed the border. Infiltrating the railway network’s computers was relatively easy, said Yuliana Shemetovets, a spokesperson for the group who is based in New York, because the railway company is still using Windows XP, an outdated version of the software that contains many vulnerabilities.
    In early April, security police captured three alleged saboteurs near the town of Bobruisk and shot them in the knees. State television broadcast footage of the bleeding men, their knees bandaged, and claimed they had been shot while resisting arrest.

    The shootings have had a chilling effect on the saboteur network, Azarov said. Belarusian troops are patrolling and drones have been deployed to monitor the railway lines. “It has become too dangerous to do attacks,” he said.

    Speaking of subterfuge, hopefully the Russians are not better at it than they appear in this episode: The FSB has claimed to have uncovered a plot to kill Russia's Alex-Jones-if-he-were-on-Fox-News, Vladimir Solovyov. Among the paraphernalia presented were copies of the game Sims 3 and a confession letter signed "Signature illegible" in the same font as the rest of the text.
    Last edited by Montmorency; 04-26-2022 at 04:38.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  25. #445
    Backordered Member CrossLOPER's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post
    Maybe it's the legendary Belarusian partisan.






    Speaking of subterfuge, hopefully the Russians are not better at it than they appear in this episode: The FSB has claimed to have uncovered a plot to kill Russia's Alex-Jones-if-he-were-on-Fox-News, Vladimir Solovyov. Among the paraphernalia presented were copies of the game Sims 3 and a confession letter signed "Signature illegible" in the same font as the rest of the text.
    ...as well as the shirts that were clearly just taken out of the packaging.

    Do you have me on ignore, bro?
    Requesting suggestions for new sig.

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  26. #446

    Default Re: Great Power contentions



    Well then.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


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  27. #447
    Headless Senior Member Pannonian's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by Montmorency View Post


    Well then.
    What's that about?

  28. #448
    Coffee farmer extraordinaire Member spmetla's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    A failed soviet offensive in WW2 in the same Donbas region as today with front lines that are very similar. Just interesting how the geography of the same rivers, towns, rail networks remain the deciding points in today's war in Ukraine.

    The above battle is part of Manstein's operations in which he was able to do his typical 'backhand stroke' to allow Soviet forces to attack and then defeat them while the major Kursk battle was happening a bit farther North yet was still able to defeat the Soviets here though his portion of Kursk still were defeated a few weeks later.

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    Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
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    Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.

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  29. #449

    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Also, the size of the forces available, as well as the likely losses, though maybe to month rather than to week timescale.
    Vitiate Man.

    History repeats the old conceits
    The glib replies, the same defeats


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  30. #450
    Praefectus Fabrum Senior Member Anime BlackJack Champion, Flash Poker Champion, Word Up Champion, Shape Game Champion, Snake Shooter Champion, Fishwater Challenge Champion, Rocket Racer MX Champion, Jukebox Hero Champion, My House Is Bigger Than Your House Champion, Funky Pong Champion, Cutie Quake Champion, Fling The Cow Champion, Tiger Punch Champion, Virus Champion, Solitaire Champion, Worm Race Champion, Rope Walker Champion, Penguin Pass Champion, Skate Park Champion, Watch Out Champion, Lawn Pac Champion, Weapons Of Mass Destruction Champion, Skate Boarder Champion, Lane Bowling Champion, Bugz Champion, Makai Grand Prix 2 Champion, White Van Man Champion, Parachute Panic Champion, BlackJack Champion, Stans Ski Jumping Champion, Smaugs Treasure Champion, Sofa Longjump Champion Seamus Fermanagh's Avatar
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    Default Re: Great Power contentions

    Quote Originally Posted by spmetla View Post
    A failed soviet offensive in WW2 in the same Donbas region as today with front lines that are very similar. Just interesting how the geography of the same rivers, towns, rail networks remain the deciding points in today's war in Ukraine.

    The above battle is part of Manstein's operations in which he was able to do his typical 'backhand stroke' to allow Soviet forces to attack and then defeat them while the major Kursk battle was happening a bit farther North yet was still able to defeat the Soviets here though his portion of Kursk still were defeated a few weeks later.
    ...and still more amused chuckling sounds from Santayana.
    "The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman

    "The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken

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